Resilience thinking: Towards new conceptual models in

Agricultural/Rural/Basin development….and modeling

Andre F van Rooyen

Complex systems Ostrom 2007

Three aspects of decomposability of complex subsystems are important:1. conceptual partitioning of variables into classes and

subclasses. 2. is the existence of relatively separable subsystems

that are independent of each other in the accomplishment of many functions and development but eventually affect each other’s performance.

3. that complex systems are greater than the sum of their parts.

What is resilience and why should we be concerned?

The ability of a “system” (social-ecological or SES) to recover from shock/perturbation;

3 defining characteristics:1. The amount change a system can undergo and still retain

the same controls on function and structure;2. The degree to which a system is capable of self-

organization and re-organization after shock/change3. The degree to which the system can learn/share

knowledge and adapt.Walker et al. 2002

Back to Plant Ecology 101

• Sustainability• Succession models – Linear models• Equilibrium systems• Disequilibrium• Hollings and Walker

Cup and ball models…

Cup and ball models…

Cup and ball models…

Cup and ball models…

State-and-transition-models

Savanna

Annual grasses

Bare soil

Small shrubs

Closed unpalatable woodland

Mixed annual grass/shrubland

Transitions can be caused by:

• Grazing– Inefficient grazing systems – lack of infrastructure– Inappropriate water provision– Policy – open access systems

• Fire• Frost

Obviously the opposite of these will normally have positive impact!

Stable degraded states

• Some transitions are irreversible!• Caused by changes in soil, chemistry, structure• Plant spp composition changes and seed

banks• Long lived unpalatable spp.

Stable degraded states are often very resilient I.e. its very difficult to get out of these states.

Now, apply the same thinking to the whole systemsocio-ecological systems (SES)

• How do the GD interact within the SES in your basin?• What are the specific barriers preventing regime changes?• What are the facilitating environments/conditions which could

drive DES in you area forward?

Think in terms of:• Technologies• Policies• Markets• Incentives• Environmental conditions/constraints/opportunities

Resilience management:

• To prevent the system from moving to undesired system configuration when shocked of challenged/disturbed

• To nurture and preserve the elements that enable the system to renew and reorganize itself following major chock or change

Development trajectories and a conceptual model of rural/agricultural development

• Berkes (2007 p.287) suggested: “the creation of platforms for dialogue and innovation, following a crisis, is key to the stimulation of learning to deal with uncertainties. It helps reorganize conceptual models and paradigms, based on a revised understanding of the conditions generating the crisis.”

Folke et al. (2003) defined four clusters of factors, that interact across temporal and spatial scales which increase the resilience of SES

• Learning to live with change and uncertainty • Nurturing diversity in its various forms • Combining different types of knowledge for learning • Creating opportunity for self-organization and cross-scale

linkages