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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    TOPIC:

    THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK HYPOTHESIS DEVELOPMENT

    GROUP MEMBER

    FATIMA TAHIR MS09MBA014

    KANWAL AMIN MS09MBA016

    ASMA MUNAWAR MS09MBA039

    RESOURCE PERSON

    DR. FOUZIA NAHEED KHAWAJA

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    Table of Contents

    TOPICS PAGE #

    What is Research? 6

    Business Research Defined 6

    Why do Research? 7

    The Request for Proposal (RFP) 12

    Business Methods versus Research Methodology 13

    Observation 14

    The Scientific Method: An Overview 16

    Steps of the Scientific Process 17

    What is a Literature Search 19

    Purpose of a Literature Search 20

    The Literature Review: 28

    Finding Sources 29

    Kinds of Sources 29

    Converting an Idea into a Research Hypothesis 30

    A Strategic Approach 31

    A Search Plan 32

    Synthesizing Information 33

    What to look for in relation to the Literature Review 35

    Where to look for reference material 37

    Types of Questions 44

    Types of Relationships 45

    Patterns of Relationships 46

    Variables 48

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    Determine the Relevant Variable 48

    Types of Variables 51

    Independent and Dependent Variables 52

    Moderating Variables 53

    Extraneous Variables 53

    Intervening Variables 54

    Recapitulation 55

    Operational Definition of Variable 57

    Threats to a Valid Measurement Procedure 64

    Controlling Threats to Reliability and Validity 68

    Creating a Reliable Manipulation 68

    Controlling Confounding Variable 68

    Control Demand Characteristics 77

    Cause and Effect Relationships 78

    Manipulation and Measurement 84

    Theory 84

    Theory and Research 84

    Two Purposes of Theory 86

    Concept (or Construct) 86

    Theoretical Framework 88

    Importance to Research 89

    Hypothesis 90

    Propositions and Hypotheses 90

    Descriptive Hypothesis 91

    Relational Hypothesis 92

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    Correlational Hypothesis 93

    Explanatory(causal) Hypotheses 94

    The Role of the Hypothesis 95

    What is a good hypothesis? 95

    Research Questions 96

    Correlational Research 98

    Formulating the Research Problem 102

    Hypothesis Development and Testing 104

    Explanation of Correlation Coefficient 105

    Operationalization 107

    Conceptual Variables 107

    Validity and Reliability 108

    Types of Validity 109

    Reliability 109

    Types of Reliability 110

    Generalization 110

    Choosing the Research Method 110

    Choosing the Measurement 110

    Errors in Research 110

    Experimental Research 111

    Aims of Experimental Research 111

    Identifying the Research Problem 111

    Constructing the Experiment 111

    Sampling Groups to Study 111

    Creating the Design 112

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    Typical Designs and Features in Experimental Design 112

    Pretest-Posttest Design 113

    Control Group 113

    Randomized Controlled Trials 113

    Between Subjects Design 114

    Solomon Four-Group Design 114

    Within Subject Design 114

    Counterbalanced Measures Design 114

    Matched Subjects Design 114

    Pilot Study 115

    Conducting the Experiment 117

    Types of Research Designs 119

    Quantitative and Qualitative Research 119

    Different Research Methods 120

    Ethics in Research 120

    Research - Cost and Benefits-Analysis 121

    Statistics Tutorial 122

    Hypothesis Testing - Statistics Tutorial 123

    Statistical Tests 124

    Testing Hypothesis Statistically 126

    Analysis of Variance 126

    References 127

    What is Research?

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    Research is an often-misused term, its usage in everyday language very different

    from the strict scientific meaning. In the field of science, it is important to move away

    from the looser meaning and use it only in its proper context. Scientific research

    adheres to a set of strict protocols and long established structures. Often, we will talk

    about conducting internet research or say that we are researching in the library. In

    everyday language, it is perfectly correct grammatically, but in science, it gives a

    misleading impression. The correct and most common term used in science is that we

    are conducting a literature review.

    What is Research? - The Guidelines

    What is research ? For a successful career in science, you must understand the

    methodology behind any research and be aware of the correct protocols.

    Science has developed these guidelines over many years as the benchmark for

    measuring the validity of the results obtained.

    Failure to follow the guidelines will prevent your findings from being accepted

    and taken seriously. These protocols can vary slightly between scientific disciplines,

    but all follow the same basic structure.

    Business Research Defined

    Business Research is defined as the systematic and objective process of generating

    information for aid in making business decisions.

    By William G. Zikmund

    Business Research

    Research information is neither intuitive nor haphazardly gathered.

    Literally, research (re-search) -search again

    Business research must be objective

    Detached and impersonal rather than biased

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    It facilitates the managerial decision process for all aspects of a business.

    Information Reduces Uncertainty

    It aint the things we dont know that gets us in

    trouble. Its the things we know that aint so.

    Artemus Ward

    Research Process

    Research process deals with the ways and strategies used by researchers to

    understand the world around us. It involves a dedicated system of scientific

    methodology that can be used by researchers to arrive at the right conclusions.

    and the researcher concludes and generalizes the findings to the real world.

    Aims of Research

    The general aims of research are:

    Observe and Describe

    Predict

    Determination of the Causes

    Explain

    Purpose of Research - Why do we conduct research? Why is it necessary?

    Elements of Research

    Common scientific research elements are:

    Characterization - How to understand a phenomenon

    Decide what to observe about a phenomenon

    How to define the research problem

    How to measure the phenomenon

    Hypothesis and Theory

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    I dont knowif we should

    offer on-sitechild care?

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    The research questions before performing research

    Often based on earlier research

    Prediction

    What answers do we expect?

    Reasoning and logic on why we expect these results

    Observation or Experimentation

    Testing characterizations, hypothesis , theory and predictions

    Understanding a phenomenon better

    Drawing Conclusions

    Reasoning and Logic

    There is no straight answer to the best reasoning to apply to the research process .

    Here are a few articles about different reasoning and logic when conducting the

    scientific method.

    Hypothetico-Deductive Method

    Falsification

    Testability

    Deductive Reasoning

    Inductive Reasoning and the Raven Paradox

    Scientific Reasoning

    Casual Reasoning

    Abductive Reasoning

    Post Hoc Reasoning

    Defeasible Reasoning

    Why do Research? In the beginning

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    We all have a great store of wisdom in our heads and rarely ask where it came

    from. By and large, the knowledge upon which we base our decisions comes from

    what we have been told rather than from direct experience. We usually are not too

    careful about the source of our information, even when it is the basis of very

    important decision. Doing our own research and experimentation allows us to make

    direct examination of the information we already possess as well as providing us with

    new information.

    In Mark Twains story, Eves Autobiography. (1962), Eve examines the problem

    of being newborn in a world in which knowledge in not communicated:

    But studying, learning inquiring into the cause and nature and purpose of everything

    we came across, were passions with us, and this research filled our days with brilliant

    and absorbing interest. Each was ambitious to beat the other in scientific discovery,

    and this inventive added a spur to our friendly rivalry, and effectively protected us

    against falling into idle unprofitable ways and frivolous pleasure seeking (p.71)

    Some of Adam and Eve's experiments bear fruit:

    Our tint memorable scientific discovery was the law that water and like fluids run

    downhill, not up. It was Adam that found this out. Days and days he conducted his

    experiments secretly, saying nothing to me about it; for he wanted to make perfectly

    sure before he spoke My astonishment was his triumph, his reward. He took me

    from rill to rilldozens of themsaying always, "Thereyou see it runs downhill

    in every case it runs downhill, never up. My theory was right; it is proven, it is

    established, nothing can controvert it,"

    In the present day, no child wonders to see the water run down and not up, but it

    was an amazing thing then, and m hard to believe as any fact I have ever encountered.

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    Presently he said, "Do you know, you have not made merely one weighty and far-

    reaching contribution to science, but two!"

    And that was true. By a series of experiments we had long ago arrived at the

    conclusion that atmospheric air consisted of water in invisible suspension; also, that

    the components of water were hydrogen and oxygen, in the proportion of two parts of

    the former to one of the latter, and expressible by the symbol H 20. My discovery

    revealed the fact that there was still another ingredientmilk. We enlarged the

    symbol to H 20,M.

    All the steps of scientific research are shown in Twain's story. Eve asks a question

    to which she wants an answer. When systematic observation fails to provide an

    answer, she then plans an experiment, devising a methodology and working out a way

    to collect data. After analyzing her data (determining that she has two gallons of milk)

    and, presumably, checking to see that her methods have not gone astray (namely, that

    the cow had not strayed over the fence), she reports the results and her conclusion to

    her colleague. Finally, she and Adam attempt to generalize her conclusion more

    widely and fit it in with other information they already possess.

    Adam and Eve's conclusion may be open to challenge, as are the results and

    conclusions of any research. One of the greatest strengths of scientific method as a

    way of gaining knowledge is that this knowledge is always subject to further testing.

    Eve's experiment should be conducted on other cows, the cow she watched might be

    unique. The experiment also should be continued for a longer period of time; there

    might be distressing effects on milk production, not to mention the cow, if Eve

    continued to withhold fluids. If she thinks hair in important in the process, she might

    try shaving the cow. She might also try confining the cow to areas where no grass

    grows, which not affect should milk production if her air-suspension theory is correct.

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    A single experiment or research project rarely provides final answers; it simply helps

    eliminate unlikely explanation. Scientists are not only interested in testing what they

    have been told, they also must be able to pinpoint weaknesses in applications of

    scientific method and weight the truth of any conclusions accordingly.

    What is wrong with believing what we are told?

    After all, we're not Adam and Eve. In fact, according to the anthropologist, what

    distinguishes us from monkeys is that we have culture which can be handed down

    from generation to generation. This culture consists of physical objects and

    knowledge communicated both orally and in writing. If we want to know how the

    milk gets into the cow, all we need do is ask someone or look it up in a book. Yet if

    you were to pursue this question with someone who really knows, you would be

    likely to find out that this is an area of current research. The improvement of milk

    production through feeding, genetics, and milking practices is still going on. The

    answer you get this year may not be the same as the one you would get ten years from

    now, and it certainly wont be the same as the answer you would have got in 1900.

    Is the solution, then, to believe nothing of what we are told and to discover everything

    through direct experience? The problems would be overwhelming there simply isnt

    enough time to gather all information firsthand. Besides, a small portion of direct

    experience by itself can be misleading, as we saw with Eve's work. What we need is a

    means of estimating how much we should trust a particular piece of information. In

    addition, we need a process by which we can generate new information when we feel

    the need for a firmer base for our decisions.

    Scientific method is a set of procedures that allows us to generate information of

    high quality and to check the worth of what we have been told by others. Scientific

    research does not provide final answers, but it increases the probability that the

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    information obtained does reflect reality. One hallmark of scientific method is that it

    is self-correcting. Properly applied, scientific procedures will expose weaknesses in

    information gathered in earlier research and suggests new research to deal with these

    weaknesses. Scientists "believe" something only on a provisional basis. They are

    aware that any particular belief may have to be altered because of future research

    findings. Behaving like a scientist means fighting a continuing battle against the in-

    clination to be dogmatic about what we "know." It is especially important for those of

    us hoping to work with other people to ride herd on our beliefs. Whether we are

    psychologists, sociologists, educators, anthropologists, health-service practitioners,

    politicians, or business managers, we are constantly making decisions that affect our

    fellow human beings. Our work often costs other people money, takes up their time,

    Research Methodology

    Research Methodology In order to meet our objectives, we will need to use a

    number of research methods. For instance, when gathering research for our first

    objective, we will need to create a questionnaire and come up with questions to ask

    the store manager in the interview with him. These are both primary methods of

    research, however, we will be using forms of secondary research also. Primary and

    secondary research can be split up into two groups, quantitative and qualitative

    research. Methods of quantitative secondary research include official statistics, and

    controlled experiments. In order to solve the problem of low motivation at the store,

    we will need to practice a number of research methods. A particular method of

    research we will be using is primary research. Primary research is collecting data that

    does not already exist. Another method of research is secondary research, this is using

    data that already exists, such as books, newspapers, the internet and the other methods

    mentioned earlier. Between these two methods we aim to collect data that is more

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    qualitative than quantitative, as we believe a subject such as motivation requires

    peoples opinions and much more elaboration than what closed-ended questionnaires

    and other quantitative methods of research could possibly offer. To meet our first

    objective we will need to collect primary research in the form of questionnaires and

    interview. This in turn would help us decide whether the lack of motivation affects the

    day to day running of the business, whether it is in the production area or whether

    quality is more effected. This will in turn able our to complete our fifth objective of

    collecting significant secondary research, which will allow us to analyze and come up

    with some quality solutions for the problem of low motivation at Sainsburys Local in

    Wylde Green. In order to complete our final objective of offering conclusions to our

    research, we will use both primary and secondary research.

    The Request for Proposal (RFP)

    The request for proposal (RFP) is part of a formal process of competitively

    tendering and hiring a research supplier. If the process is undertaken by a public

    sector organization or large corporation, the process can be extremely strict with set

    rules regarding communication between client and potential suppliers, the exact time

    when the proposal must be submitted, the number of copies to be provided, etc.

    Proposals that required thousands of hours of preparation have been refused for being

    one minute late (see this article)!

    The RFP usually sets out the objectives or client's information requirements and

    requests that the proposal submitted by the potential supplier include:

    1. A detailed research methodology with justification for the approach or approaches

    proposed;

    2. Phasing or realistic timelines for carrying out the research;

    3. A detailed quotation by phase or task as well as per diem rates and time spent for

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    each researcher participating in the execution of the work;

    4. The qualifications of each participating researcher and a summary of other projects

    each person has been involved in to demonstrate past experience and expertise

    The client should provide the potential suppliers with the criteria for selection and the

    relative weight assigned to each one, to assist suppliers in understanding where trade-

    offs might need to be made between available budget and importance. These criteria

    also allow the supplier to ensure that all areas deemed important by the client have

    been addressed as part of the proposal.

    At times, clients ask a short-listed number of suppliers to present their proposed

    methodology during an interview, which allows for probing by the client but also

    discussion as to the advantages and disadvantages associated with the research design

    that is proposed.

    Business Methods versus Research Methodology

    Many authors use these terms interchangeably, but there is a correct way of using

    them. As students of Research Methods, we must know the difference. What is it?

    Textbooks treat this differently but research methods usually refers to specific

    activities designed to generate data (e.g questionnaires, interviews, focus groups,

    observation) and research methodology is more about your attitude to and your

    understanding of research and the strategy you choose to answer research questions.

    This idea is based on the views of author Dr. Sue Greener (2003 Pg 10)

    Observation

    Observation is a primary method of collecting data by human, mechanical,

    electrical or electronic means. The researcher may or may not...

    Deductive Reasoning

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    Steps of the scientific method are shaped like an hourglass - starting from general

    questions, narrowing down to focus on one specific aspect and designing research

    where we can observe and analyze this aspect. At last, we conclude and generalize to

    the real world.

    Steps of the Scientific Process

    1) Setting a Goal

    Research in all disciplines and subjects, not just science, must begin with a clearly

    defined goal . This usually, but not always, takes the form of a hypothesis .

    For example, an anthropological study may not have a specific hypothesis or

    principle, but does have a specific goal, in studying the culture of a certain people and

    trying to understand and interpret their behavior.

    The whole study is designed around this clearly defined goal, and it should

    address a unique issue, building upon previous research and scientifically accepted

    fundamentals. Whilst nothing in science can be regarded as truth, basic assumptions

    are made at all stages of the research, building upon widely accepted knowledge.

    2) Interpretation of the Results

    Research does require some interpretation and extrapolation of results.

    In scientific research, there is always some kind of connection between data

    (information gathered) and why the scientist think that the data looks as it does. Often

    the researcher looks at the data gathered, and then comes to a conclusion of why the

    data looks like it does.

    A history paper, for example, which just reorganizes facts and makes no

    commentary on the results, is not research but a review .

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    If you think of it this way, somebody writing a school textbook is not performing

    research and is offering no new insights. They are merely documenting pre-existing

    data into a new format.

    If the same writer interjects their personal opinion and tries to prove or disprove a

    hypothesis , then they are moving into the area of genuine research. Science tends to

    use experimentation to study and interpret a specific hypothesis or question, allowing

    a gradual accumulation of knowledge that slowly becomes a basic assumption.

    3) Replication and Gradual Accumulation

    For any study, there must be a clear procedure so that the experiment can be

    replicated and the results verified. Again, there is a bit of a grey area for observation-

    based research, as is found in anthropology, behavioral biology and social science, but

    they still fit most of the other criteria.

    Planning and designing the experimental method , is an important part of the

    project and should revolve around answering specific predictions and questions . This

    will allow an exact duplication and verification by independent researchers, ensuring

    that the results are accepted as real.

    Most scientific research looks at an area and breaks it down into easily tested

    pieces. The gradual experimentation upon these individual pieces will allow the larger

    questions to be approached and answered, breaking down a large and seemingly

    insurmountable problem, into manageable chunks.

    True research never gives a definitive answer but encourages more research in

    another direction. Even if a hypothesis is disproved, that will give an answer and

    generate new ideas, as it is refined and developed.

    Research is cyclical, with the results generated leading to new areas or a

    refinement of the original process.

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    that a sequential checklist of the process is too simplistic. Reference 1 explains ...

    how researchers must work at different stages of their project simultaneously

    [1]. The authors describe how overlapping the stages can help you understand the

    problem, manage complexity, and motivate changes in both earlier and later stages.

    The important concept to grasp is that the literature search is not just one distinct step

    in a research task. It is both a step and an iterative feedback loop. Defining an

    unsolved problem determines what kind of literature search is appropriate, and

    performing a literature search helps define an unsolved problem. Because of this

    complexity, it is not surprising that many beginning researchers have difficulty.

    Figure 1 depicts the research process and some of the complex inter-relationships,

    including those of the literature search and documentation efforts.

    FIGURE 1. Flow Diagram of Research Process.

    Purpose of a Literature Search

    An introduction chapter in a research paper generally includes information

    gleaned from a thorough literature search. A literature search serves three important

    functions [2]. Reference 2 states that the literature review gives your reader

    background information regarding your own research, demonstrates your familiarity

    with research in your field, and shows how your work contributes one more piece in

    the puzzle of expanding the knowledge base in your field. The important idea to

    convey is that you really understand what others in your field have accomplished and

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    how your work differs from the works of others [3]. In a literature review, you

    demonstrate your understanding of the relevant works of others and your ability to

    summarize this information for the convenience of your readers. This sets the stage

    for you to describe what your research contribution is going to be.

    Research does not exist in isolation. Each research study is part of existing body

    of knowledge, building on the foundation of past research and expanding that

    foundation for future research. This topic explains how current knowledge grows,

    with each new piece of information growing out of existing body of previous

    knowledge. As we discussed the literature and develop an idea for a research study,

    keep in mind that your study should be a logical extension of past research.

    Ultimately, your goal in conducting a literature search is to find set of published

    research reports that define the current state of knowledge in an area , and to identify

    a gap in that knowledge base that your study will attempt to fill. Eventually, you will

    complete your research study and write your own research report. The research report

    begins with an introduction that summarizes past research (from your literature

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    search) and provides a logical justification for your study. Although we discuss the

    task of writing a research report later (in Chapter 15), the topic is introduced now as a

    means of focusing your literature search. Figure 2.2 presents the first paragraph of a

    journal article (Schwartz, Dodge, & Coie, 1993) as an example of the use of a

    literature review to introduce a topic area and provide a logical justification for a new

    study. The paragraph can be condensed into a simple, logical argument:

    1. A small minority of children consistently seem to be victimized of bullied by their

    peers,

    2. Although other research has looked at the characteristics of the victim children,

    little has been done to examine their social behaviors prior to becoming victims. (Are

    these kids doing something that actually helps them to become victims?)

    3. Therefore, we need to examine childrens behaviors before they are identified as

    victims. The goal is to determine whether some children are destined to become

    victims because they exhibit behaviors that may cause their peers to view them as

    easy targets for bullying.

    Although we have not described the research study, you should be able to predict

    the purpose of the study and should have some idea of what was done. Notice that the

    background literature is used to construct a logical argument that This study is an

    investigation of the social behavior processes by which children come to be

    chronically victimized by their peers. There is substantial evidence that a small

    minority of children are consistently targeted for victimization by their peers (for a

    review, see Smith, 1991). Researchers have suggested that these chronic victims are at

    high risk for later maladjustment (e.g., Olweus, in press). Accordingly, investigators

    have devoted considerable effort to identifying the correlates of peer victimization

    (e.g., Bjorkqvisf, Ekman, & Lagerspetz, 1982; Lagerspetz Bjorkqvist, Berts, & King,

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    1982; Olweus, 1978) and designing effective prevention programs (e.g., Elliot, 1991;

    Olweus, 1991; Smith & Thompson 1991). Researchers have not, however,

    systematically identified the behavioral antecedents of chronic victimization. As a

    result, little is known about the social behaviors that precede and potentially

    contribute to the emergence of chronic peer victimization. Our limited understanding

    of these behavioral processes is unfortunate because detailed data on the behavior

    patterns that precede the emergence of chronic peer victimization would facilitate the

    development of appropriate interventions and greatly enhance current understanding

    of the mechanisms underlying bully/victim problems in childhood leads the reader

    directly into the proposed study. The purpose of your literature review is to provide

    the elements needed for an introduction to your own research study. Specifically, you

    need to find a set of research articles that can be organized into a logical argument

    supporting and justifying the research you propose to do.

    The Growth of Research

    Throughout this chapter we repeat the notion that each research study builds on

    previous knowledge and attempts to expand that knowledge base. With this thought in

    mind, it is possible to represent the existing knowledge base (the literature) as a tree-

    like structure that is continuously growing over time. When you begin a literature

    search, you will enter this tree and find your way along the branches. Your goal in

    conducting the search is twofold. First, you must work your way to the very tips of

    the highest branches and find a cluster of the most recent research studies. Your study

    will form a new branch coming out of this cluster. Second, you must search

    backward, down the tree, to identify the historically significant foundations of your

    work. You probably will find that most of the current research studies in an area will

    cite the same "classic" studies as their foundations. These classics usually will provide

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    a broader perspective for your work and will help you understand and explain the

    significance of your study as it relates to the more general tree of knowledge.

    The tree metaphor is only a conceptual guide to help you visualize the process

    and the goals of a literature search-the concept of a tree greatly oversimplifies the

    process. For example many good research studies involve establishment a connection

    between two previously unrelated branches of research. Nonetheless, the tree

    metaphor should help direct your literature search activities. You may, for example,

    find yourself with a cluster of recent articles that seem to be a dead end, offering no

    prospect for developing new research. If this happens, you can simply work back

    down the tree to an earlier branching point and branch off in a new direction without

    completely abandoning your original research topic.

    Conducting a Literature Search

    Starting Points

    Lets assume that youre starting your literature search with only a general idea

    for a research topic. Your purpose, therefore, is to narrow down your general idea to a

    specific research question and to find all the published information necessary to

    document and support that question. As you will see, there are many different ways to

    begin a search of the literature, in this section we identify several different starting

    points and provide some suggestions to help you find one.

    One of the best places to start is with a recently published secondary source for

    example, a textbook in a content area appropriate for your idea (perhaps a

    developmental psychology or social psychology textbook). Use the chapter headings

    and subheadings in the text to help focus your search on a more narrowly defined

    area, in addition, make notes of the following item, each of which can serve as an

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    excellent starting point when you begin to search for primary sources (journal articles)

    relevant to your topic:

    Key words: Make a list of the correct terms of key words used to identify and

    describe the variables in the study and the characteristics of the subjects. Researchers

    often develop a specific set of terms to describe a topic area. It is much easier to

    locate related research articles if you use the correct terms. For example, you may

    have trouble finding articles on duration of memory unless you use the accepted

    term, retention interval.

    Author Names: Commonly a small group of individual researchers is responsible

    for much of the work being done in a specific area. If you repeatedly encounter the

    same names, make a note of these individuals as the current leading researchers in the

    area.

    As you develop your list of key word terms and author names, keep in mind that

    any single secondary source is necessarily incomplete and probably selective. Thus, it

    is wise to repeat the list-making process with two or three different sources, and then

    combine your lists. When you finish, you should have an excellent set of leads to help

    you move into the primary source literature.

    Using Online Databases

    Although there are thousands of research articles published every year, many

    tools are available to help you search through the publications to find the few that are

    directly relevant to your research topic. In the recent past, the primary tool was a

    publication called Abstracts , which consisted of bound volumes containing:

    A brief summary of every article, chapter, or book published during the year and

    information about where to find the original publication . These summaries are the

    actual abstracts .

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    A subject index that cross-referenced every publication according to key words or

    subjects relevant to the publication.

    An author index that cross-referenced every publication according to author.

    Thus, one could use Abstracts to look up everything that was listed on a particular

    topic and/or everything that was published by a particular author in any year. The

    same principle of cross-referencing publications by subject and by author is still used

    today, but now most of the cross-referencing tools exist as computer databases. There

    are many different databases , with each one focusing on an individual topic area (like

    psychology, chemistry, or criminal justice) The databases provide the same basic

    information that was available in the bound volumes of Abstracts , but the computer

    provides much faster and easier access to the information.

    Finding and using background Literature

    Once you have settled on a general idea for a research study, the next step is to go

    to the library to gather background information on the topic you have identified. In

    addition to gaining general knowledge about your topic area, your goals are to

    determine the current state of knowledge and to become familiar with current research

    in particular, to find a specific research question. Notice that we said "find" a

    question rather than "make up" or "create" one. Once you are familiar with what is

    currently known and what is currently being done in a research area, your task is

    simply to extend the current research one more step. Sometimes this requires a bit of

    logic, in which you combine two or more established facts to reach a new conclusion

    or prediction. Often the authors of a research report literally will give you ideas for

    new research. It is very common for researchers to conclude a discussion of their

    results with suggestions for future research. You are welcome to turn one of these

    suggestions into a research question. In Section 2.5 we provide additional hints for

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    finding research idea For now, do not try to impose your own preconceived idea onto

    the literature Instead, let the literature lead you to a new idea.

    In most college or university libraries, the books devoted to research will occupy at

    least 100 feet of shelves. The research journals probably will, fill even more space.

    This mass of published information is referred to as the literature." Your job is to

    search the literature to find a handful of items that are directly relevant to your

    research idea. This may at first appear to be an overwhelming task; fortunately,

    however, the literature is filled with useful aids to guide your search. Specifically, all

    the individual publications are interconnected by cross-referencing, and there are

    many summary guides providing overviews that can send you directly to specific

    topic areas. By following the guides and tracing the interconnections, it is possible to

    conduct a successful literature search without undue pain and suffering.

    Primary and Secondary Sources

    Before we discuss the actual process of a literature search, there are a few terms

    you should know. Individual items in the literature can be classified into two broad

    categories: primary sources and secondary sources. A primary source is a first-hand

    report in which the authors describe their own observations. Typically, a primary

    source is a research report, published in a scientific journal or periodical, in which the

    authors describe their own research study, including why the research was done, how

    the study was conducted, what results were found, and how those results were

    interpreted. In contrast, a secondary source is a secondhand report in which the

    authors discuss someone else's observations. Some examples of secondary sources

    include: (1) books and textbooks in which the author describes and summarizes past

    research; (2) the introductory section of research reports, in which previous research

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    is presented as a foundation for the current study; and (3) newspaper and magazine

    articles that report on previous research.

    A Primary Source is a firsthand report of observations or research results that is

    written b the individual(s) who actually conducted the research and made the

    observations.

    A Secondary Source is a description or summary of another persons work. A

    secondary source is written by someone who did not participate in the research or

    observations being discussed.

    Notice that the principal distinction between a primary source and secondary one is

    firsthand versus secondhand reporting of research results. Students often confuse this

    distinction with the notion that anything published in a journal or periodical is

    automatically a primary source and that all other kinds of publications are secondary

    sources. This assumption is incorrect on several levels. The following are also

    possible:

    The journal article is not a primary source. Instead, the article may be a review

    of other work, a theoretical article that attempts to explain or establish relationships

    between several previous studies, or a historical summary of none is a firsthand report

    of research results.

    A book or book chapter is primary sources. Occasionally an individual or a

    group of researchers will publish an edited volume that presents a series of

    interrelated research studies. Each chapter is written by the individual(s) who actually

    conducted the research and is therefore a primary source.

    A journal article is firsthand report of research results, yet sections of the

    article are actually secondary sources. Specifically, most research reports begin with

    an introductory section that reviews current research in the area and forms the

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    foundation of the study that is being reported. This review of current research is

    secondary because the authors describe research conducted by others. Remember, to

    qualify as primary source, the authors must describe their own research studies and

    results.

    Both primary and secondary sources play important roles in the literature search

    process. Secondary sources can provide concise summaries of past research. A

    textbook, for example, will often summarize 10 years of research, citing several

    important studies, in a few paragraphs. Individual research reports that fill 10 to 15

    pages in journals are often summarized in one or two sentences, thus, secondary

    sources can save your hours of library research. However, you should be constantly

    aware that secondary sources are always incomplete and can be biased or simply

    inaccurate. In secondary sources, the author has selected only bits and pieces of the

    original study; the selected parts may have been taken out of context and reshaped to

    fit a theme quite different from what the original authors intended. In general,

    secondary sources tell only part of the truth and may, in fact, distort the truth. To

    obtain complete and accurate information, it is essential to consult primary sources.

    Reading primary sources, however, can be a tedious process, as primary sources are

    typically long, detailed reports focusing on a narrowly defined topic. Therefore, plan

    to use secondary sources to gain an overview and identify a few specific primary

    sources.

    The Literature Review:

    The literature review is where you will present others writings in a systematic and

    thorough way. This allows you as an author to build your conceptual analysis. As the

    literature review is a description and critical analysis of what others have written on

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    your chosen subject matter before you, it allows you to narrow other authors work and

    make it relevant and concise in relation to your subject.

    It would be prudent to present other authors work in a systematic way i.e. present

    each critical subject area in a defined chapter, this makes it easier and more

    manageable to handle various subject themes and modalities.

    The literature review will be referred to many times in a dissertation or project.

    When we draw conclusions and make recommendations, often we will make them

    based on work done before us by other authors and we will frame their work in our

    overall recommendations.

    Counseling research by its nature can be wordy and literature reviews can be quite

    significant in the overall compilation of the project document. Organization and the

    eloquent stitching together of themes and subject areas is vital if a literature review

    is to have substance and if it is to present a literate/theoretical framework to your

    research topic and ultimately to the end user: your reader or academic professionals.

    Barker et al, (1994) defines four predominant reasons for a Literature Review

    1. To assess how well developed the literature is, what kinds of gaps there are in it

    and whether there has been sufficient preliminary descriptive research to define the

    phenomena of interest.

    2. To see and establish how far the available literature answers your research

    questions. How can your proposed study add to the current study?

    3. To help you to formulate your research questions in the light of theory or previous

    research done.

    4. To assist with measurement and design issues, to develop measurement methods, to

    assess strengths and weaknesses of those used previously.

    Finding Sources

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    Libraries are one obvious resource for a student performing a literature search, but

    there are many others as well, including the internet. Regardless of the sources you

    use, keep a bibliographic trail [1]. Track titles, authors, publication information, page

    numbers, and possibly library call numbers (LCN), International Standard Book

    Numbers (ISBN), or International Standard Serial Numbers (ISSN). When searching

    through cyberspace, also note on-line addresses and other pertinent information so

    that a search can be duplicated if necessary. Also be aware that some online

    information changes daily one day it is there, the next day it is gone. You should

    print it out immediately, if possible, and note the source, the navigation route, and

    the search engine you used to get to that source. These tracking habits can help you

    avoid duplication of effort and speed the process of obtaining permission (to use

    the work of others) when needed. The time required to relocate and require a source is

    also reduced. You will also be constructing your reference chapter as you work.

    Retracing these efforts by memory is very risky, so it is better if you take notes at

    every step.

    Kinds of Sources

    Sources are generally described as primary, secondary, or tertiary. Primary.

    Primary sources are materials that you are directly writing about, the raw

    materials of your own research.

    Secondary . Secondary sources are books and articles in which other researchers

    report the results of their research based on (their) primary data or sources .

    Tertiary . Tertiary sources are books and articles based on secondary sources, on

    the research of others [1]. Tertiary sources synthesize and explain the work of others

    and might be useful early in your research, but they are generally weak support for

    your own arguments [1].

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    Primary . Examples of primary sources are data sets, computer runs, computer

    programs, scale models, drawings, and engineering notebooks. A well-kept

    engineering notebook can provide valuable information for later documentation of test

    conditions and assumptions, materials used, observations as well as measurements,

    and unusual occurrences that prompted further testing.

    Secondary . Examples of secondary sources include conferences, proceedings,

    journals, and books. Journal articles are often the most current source of information

    on a topic of study that is new or subject to rapid change. Lists of references at the

    end of each journal article can provide leads to further sources. Engineering journals

    are typically field-specific. For a selected list of current journals in agricultural,

    chemical, civil, computer, electrical, environmental, industrial, and mechanical

    engineering, ask at your facility or university library for specific guides.

    Tertiary . Examples of tertiary sources include dictionaries, encyclopedias, guides,

    and handbooks. Dictionaries and encyclopedias are excellent starting points

    for research. They can provide general background information to help narrow or

    broaden the focus of a topic, define unfamiliar terms, and offer bibliographies of other

    sources. Some works include an index, which will provide excellent access to a

    subject [4]. Guides and handbooks cover topics such as tables, formulas, engineering

    fundamentals, measures and units of conversion, mathematics, statistics, and

    numerical calculations; these sources are especially useful during the writing phase of

    your research [4].

    Finding an Idea for a New Research Study

    Once you have located a set of recent and relevant articles, the final step is to use

    these research reports as the foundation for your research idea (see Chapter 1, Step 1

    of the research process). Earlier we called this task "finding a research idea." When

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    you are familiar with the current research in an area, the idea for the next study

    involves simply extending the current research one more step. However, discovering

    this next step may not be as simple as we have implied, and so we list here a few

    suggestions:

    Describe the tree ways identified in the text to find a new research idea.

    Converting an idea into a Research Hypothesis

    Typically, a research idea involves a general statement about the relationship

    between two variables, For example:

    If people use visual images while studying new material, it will improve their

    memory for the material. (Memory if related to using images.)

    Although providing motivation to people generally improves their performance,

    too much motivation may create stress and actually lower performance. (Performance

    is related to motivation.)

    To evaluate these ideas in an empirical research study, the idea must be

    transformed into a specific, concrete research hypothesis that can be tested by direct

    observation. This transformation usually involves specifying how each of the

    individual variables will be measured and what individuals will be needed to

    participate in the study (men, women, children, laboratory rats). Selecting participants

    and measuring variables are discussed in the following chapters, but for now we

    provide a brief example of what we mean by a specific, concrete hypothesis.

    The first of the two research ideas we have proposed states that memory it related

    to using visual images. Although this idea could be examined with nearly any group

    of human beings, it is probably most convenient to use college students as participants

    in the study. Similarly, the concept of memory can be defined in a variety of different

    ways, but for this study we choose to measure the number of words correctly recalled

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    The Research Process (Step 4 & 5)

    from a list of 40 nouns that each participant studies for a period of exactly 2 minutes.

    Finally, we can define the idea of "using Imagery as forming a mental image of the

    object represented by a word. (For example, forming a mental image of a horse when

    you see the word horse.) With these definitions in place, our research hypothesis

    becomes:

    College students who are instructed to form mental images while studying a list of

    40 words for 2 minutes will recall more words (on average) than college students who

    study the same words for 2 minutes but are not given instructions to form mental

    images.

    Notice that the research hypothesis provides a very specific procedure for testing

    the research idea. Also note that the same research idea (that memory is related to

    using images) could produce a variety of different research hypotheses. For example,

    we could have tested 10-years-old children instead of college student; we could have

    used a set of 20 items( instead of 40; and we could have presented on a screen and

    another group a series of words presented on a screen and another group a series of

    pictures of the same items, the research hypothesis then becomes:

    Ten-year-old children who view pictures of 20 items (for example, a table, a

    horse, a tree) will recall more items, on average , than 10-year-old children who view

    a series of word resenting the same 20 items for example , TABLE, HORSE, TREE)

    In general, there are many different ways to convert a research idea into a specific

    research hypothesis, the method you select depends on a variety of factors, including

    the set of individuals you want to study and the measurement techniques that are

    available. However, each of the many possible hypotheses should provide a direct test

    of the basic research idea.

    Convert your Research Idea into a specific Research Hypothesis

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    Before a research idea can be evaluated, it must be transformed into a research

    hypothesis. A hypothesis is a statement about the relationship between two (or more)

    variables.

    A hypothesis is a statement describing the relationship between two variables.

    Although it is possible to form a hypothesis from logic of from pure speculation, a

    good hypothesis usually is founded on established theories or develop[ed from the

    results of previous research. Specifically, a good hypothesis should be the logical

    conclusion of a logical argument. Consider the following example:

    Premise 1 : Academic success is highly valued and respected in society (at least by

    parents and teachers).

    Premise 2 : Being valued and respected by others contributes to high self-esteem.

    Conclusion or hypothesis : Higher levels of academic success are related to higher

    levels of self-esteem.

    In this argument, we will assume that the two premise statements are "facts" or

    research results that have been demonstrated and reported in the scientific literature.

    Typically, these facts would be obtained from extensive library research. Library

    research will acquaint you with the relevant knowledge that already existswhat

    other researchers have done and found. By knowing the basic facts, theories,

    predictions, and methods that make up the knowledge base for a specific topic area,

    you gain a clearer picture of the variables being studied and their relationships. The

    logical argument provides a rationale or justification for your research hypothesis and

    establishes a connection between your research and the research results obtained by

    others.

    In addition to being logical, a good hypothesis must be testable ; that is, it must be

    possible to make observations that will either support the hypothesis or refute it. In

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    particular, the hypothesis must involve real situations, real events, and real

    individuals. You cannot test a hypothesis that refers to imaginary events or make-

    believe situations. For example, you might speculate about what might happen if the

    heat from the sun were gradually to increase over the next 25 years, or you could

    debate what might have happened if JFK had not been assassinated. However, neither

    of these two propositions leads to a testable hypothesis. The propositions cannot be

    observed and therefore are inappropriate as scientific hypotheses.

    A second characteristic of a testable hypothesis is that it must make a positive

    statement about the existence of something, usually the existence of a relationship, a

    difference, or a treatment effect.

    A Strategic Approach

    As a beginning researcher, two of the most common problems you might

    encounter are: i) not knowing where to find sources, and ii) once sources are located,

    not knowing how to sift or sort through an excess of information to determine what is

    useful to you. The following paragraphs elaborate on these two problems and describe

    a general plan that can help you overcome these difficulties during your

    literature review process.

    Getting Started

    A lot of time and frustration can be saved by understanding the process and the

    system. Doing research consists of two basic tasks: brainstorming and researching

    itself. You need to know what information you will need, and you need to know

    where to get your hands on it [5]. Developing the working bibliography requires

    knowledge of library resources, both printed and electronic, and the use of

    reference systems to locate sources. During early phases of research, developing a

    tracking method to maintain a complete record of all of the bibliographic information

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    from your sources is advised, since you do not yet know whether it will be cited in

    your thesis [6]. It is also advisable for you to construct a list of experts in your field.

    Such a list can be invaluable. An oral interview with an expert can produce valuable

    insight and possibly save you a lot of time and effort. You might try sending e-mail

    messages to well-known authors or lecturers. If you notice that several recent

    dissertations are written by students at a particular university, you might contact the

    authors or the authors advisors. Given the opportunity to ask, one important question

    is: If I were to pick up where you (or your student) left off, what advice would you

    give?

    A Search Plan

    A recommended search strategy is to consider how a topic progresses through the

    research documentation life-cycle. One approach is to look for books that are

    currently accepted reference texts in your research area and find out who has

    cited them in recent years. Another approach is to look for original (seminal) reports,

    papers, or theses written by known experts and see who has cited them in recent

    years. For these two approaches, Science Citations Index (often available on CD-

    ROM) becomes a very important source. Implementing this strategy can help you

    develop a tree-like diagram or network showing not only relevant research, but

    possibly even how the works of others are interrelated. By locating and reading at

    least the abstracts of these papers, you can begin to categorize the available papers by

    topic and by the authors technical interests in a topic. Then look at the reference lists

    for the newer papers. This approach is especially useful because some databases

    might categorize differently or use different descriptors as key words. This approach

    should at least get you started on a good literature search. The above advice sounds

    easier than it really is. Even experienced researchers often feel overwhelmed by

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    information overload. As technological electronic storage and retrieval capabilities

    continue to advance, we will all struggle with this problem. That is why it becomes

    very important to have a plan in mind when conducting a literature review, and to

    have a conceptual blueprint understanding of the resources available. Otherwise,

    you can easily become lost in your search or feel as if you are going around in circles.

    What To Do If You Have Too Few Sources

    If you find little or no information, your topic might be too narrow. If this is the

    case, it is a good idea to see what topic headings or terms any newly found

    information was cataloged under, so that you can use those key words in other

    database searches. If your search still yields little information, get help from library

    personnel and experts in your field of research. In particular, ask for advice about

    ways to expand your topic so that searches will produce some useful information.

    What To Do If You Have Too Many Sources

    If, on the other hand, you find volumes of information, then you need a plan to

    scale your search down to a manageable amount. Specific aspects of a field of study

    are often listed in annotated bibliographies. Journals specific to a field are good

    sources. Experts in your field of interest can suggest where many of your important

    sources can be found. It also helps to understand and categorize your sources so that

    you know what kind of information you have. Then you can draw on what you need

    without being overwhelmed by material that is interesting and related, but not

    necessarily critical to your own research.

    Synthesizing Information

    Once information is located, the next step is to summarize it into a coherent

    literature review section for your document. You must analyze accurately and

    critically. It takes a lot of skimming of books and articles to identify which sources

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    are useful to you and in what context they are useful. Your goal at this point is to

    present an overview of what your source offers; its topic, research problem,

    resolution, and the outlines of its argument [1]. The abstract, introduction, and

    conclusion sections of each source document should contain the necessary

    information for you to write a good summary paragraph. It can be very

    counterproductive to try to read everything in detail. At first, it is more important to

    categorize and understand what sources you have and what might still be missing.

    Summarizing and Note-Taking

    Both references [7] and [1] have good advice about notetaking. Reference [7]

    states that the challenge is to condense others work without distorting it. Their seven-

    step process includes: i) do not write everything down, ii) create your own shortcuts

    and shorthand, iii) use numbers for numerical terms, iv) leave out vowels when you

    can, v) record all vital names, dates, and definitions, vi) mark items that need further

    examination, and vii) check accuracy before returning or filing the source.

    Reference [1] recommends writing and summarizing as you find sources and has a

    three-page section called Quick Tip: Speedy Reading. It recommends a five-step

    process:

    i) become familiar with the geography of the source,

    ii) locate the point of the argument,

    iii) identify key subpoints,

    iv) identify key themes, and

    v) skim paragraphs. The book suggests that not all five steps are needed all the time.

    The main point is speed and efficiency, and focusing on material relevant to your

    own research without spending time on material that is at best only marginally related.

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    While taking notes and preparing condensed summaries of the work of others, you

    must be ever mindful of the requirement to eventually cite all borrowed work in

    your final paper. All of the sources mentioned contain discussions about direct

    quotations, summarizing, and plagiarism. Readers and researchers are advised to

    locate and carefully read about these topics from any available source in order to

    avoid trouble while writing.

    A recommended beginning search plan has been described, especially for

    engineering researchers. Understanding how the literature search dovetails with other

    steps in the research process helps form a good plan. Guidance has been given for

    finding sources, for determining if your topic is too narrow, and for scaling your

    search to a manageable amount. Useful tips have been given to help you track and

    summarize information so that it becomes useful for your research purposes.

    Hopefully, this report will help you get a jump-start on a good literature review and

    contribute to the successful conclusion of your research project.

    What to look for in relation to the Literature Review

    Knowing what to look for is one of the chief problems when building you

    literature review. Knowing what to look for, who are the authors?, What is the

    relevance of published research to your research questions? - Are all questions posed

    at this stage.

    Jankowicz (1999) outlines two distinct approaches at this stage and they are,

    1. Identifying subject matter relevant to your topic

    2. Finding references to authors who have published and getting the documents

    themselves.

    1. Identifying subject matter relevant to your topic.

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    Discuss with your tutors and assess the relevance of lecture notes in the particular

    area that you want to research. Look up text books for the keynote theorists and

    authors and establish, who are the experts in your chosen area of research.

    As you develop your reference list in relation to the different subjects, methodologies,

    modalities and referenced authors, you begin to see that for this area to be effective it

    has to be systematic. You need to organize your data by Area, field and aspect: this

    will keep it ordered and thus easier to write up and interpret.

    2. Finding references to authors who have published and getting the documents

    themselves.

    Similar to 1. above, references to authors will be contained in the various texts you

    will source and it is important to note the important authors. Access to reading

    materials which will be discussed later in this report will include use of libraries,

    journals, internet sources and text books.

    Where to look for reference material

    In established research areas there will exist an enormous amount of literature.

    This can seem daunting at the outset, but there are key sources and it is important to

    keep the search within the frame of reference you have established through your

    specific research questions.

    Library catalogs contain a referenced list of books by author and it is possible to

    extract key texts all related to the one prominent author.

    Journals of interest in your area would be especially useful for insights and

    abstracts from current research. The American Counselling Association would have a

    journal on a monthly basis for example.

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    Current editions of handbooks and core text books would be most useful and also

    contain detailed bibliographies and references to authors concerning each modality

    and theory.

    On line repositories such as www.questia.com, which is a subscription based

    services provide access to thousands of book, articles and referenced materials

    concerning all areas with counseling.

    Two key points to note:

    Primary Data: Primary data is data that you have collected yourself whereas

    Secondary Data: Secondary data is everything else, other people primary research.

    Five Big Words

    Research involves an eclectic blending of an enormous range of skills and

    activities. To be a good researcher, you have to be able to work well with a wide

    variety of people, understand the specific methods used to conduct research,

    understand the subject that you are studying, be able to convince someone to give you

    the funds to study it, stay on track and on schedule, speak and write persuasively, and

    on and on.

    Here, we want to introduce you to five terms that we think help to describe some

    of the key aspects of contemporary research. (This list is not exhaustive. It's really just

    the first five terms that came into our mind when we were thinking about this and

    thinking about how we might be able to impress someone with really big/complex

    words to describe fairly straightforward concepts).

    We present the first two terms -- theoretical and empirical -- together because

    they are often contrasted with each other. Research is theoretical, meaning that much

    of it is concerned with developing, exploring or testing the theories or ideas that social

    researchers have about how the world operates. But it is also empirical, meaning that

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    it is based on observations and measurements of reality -- on what we perceive of the

    world around us. You can even think of most research as a blending of these two

    terms -- a comparison of our theories about how the world operates with our

    observations of its operation.

    The next term -- nomothetic -- comes (We think) from the writings of the

    psychologist Gordon Allport. Nomothetic refers to laws or rules that pertain to the

    general case (nomos in Greek) and is contrasted with the term "idiographic" which

    refers to laws or rules that relate to individuals (idios means 'self' or 'characteristic of

    an individual ' in Greek). In any event, the point here is that most social research is

    concerned with the nomothetic -- the general case -- rather than the individual. We

    often study individuals, but usually we are interested in generalizing to more than just

    the individual.

    In our post-positivist view of science, we no longer regard certainty as attainable.

    Thus, the fourth big word that describes much contemporary research is

    probabilistic , or based on probabilities. The inferences that we make in research have

    probabilities associated with them -- they are seldom meant to be considered covering

    laws that pertain to all cases. Part of the reason we have seen statistics become so

    dominant in social research is that it allows us to estimate probabilities for the

    situations we study.

    The last term we want to introduce is causal . You've got to be very careful with

    this term. Note that it is spelled causal not casual. You'll really be embarrassed if you

    write about the "casual hypothesis" in your study! The term causal means that most

    research is interested (at some point) in looking at cause-effect relationships. This

    doesn't mean that most studies actually study cause-effect relationships. There are

    some studies that simply observe -- for instance, surveys that seek to describe the

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    When a study is designed to determine whether one or more variables (e.g., a

    program or treatment variable) causes or affects one or more outcome variables. If we

    did a public opinion poll to try to determine whether a recent political advertising

    campaign changed voter preferences, we would essentially be studying whether the

    campaign (cause) changed the proportion of voters who would vote Democratic or

    Republican (effect).

    The three question types can be viewed as cumulative. That is, a relational study

    assumes that you can first describe (by measuring or observing) each of the variables

    you are trying to relate. And, a causal study assumes that you can describe both the

    cause and effect variables and that you can show that they are related to each other.

    Causal studies are probably the most demanding of the three.

    Types of Relationships

    A relationship refers to the correspondence between two variables. When we talk

    about types of relationships, we can mean that in at least two ways: the nature of the

    relationship or the pattern of it.

    The Nature of a Relationship

    While all relationships tell about the

    correspondence between two variables, there is

    a special type of relationship that holds that the

    two variables are not only in correspondence,

    but that one causes the other. This is the key distinction between a simple

    correlational relationship and a causal relationship . A correlational relationship

    simply says that two things perform in a synchronized manner. For instance, we often

    talk of a correlation between inflation and unemployment. When inflation is high,

    unemployment also tends to be high. When inflation is low, unemployment also tends

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    to be low. The two variables are correlated. But knowing that two variables are

    correlated does not tell us whether one causes the other. We know, for instance, that

    there is a correlation between the number of roads built in Europe and the number of

    children born in the United States. Does that

    mean that is we want fewer children in the U.S.,

    we should stop building so many roads in

    Europe? Or, does it mean that if we don't have

    enough roads in Europe, we should encourage

    U.S. citizens to have more babies? Of course

    not. (At least, I hope not). While there is a relationship between the number of roads

    built and the number of babies, we don't believe that the relationship is a causal one.

    This leads to consideration of what is often termed the third variable problem . In

    this example, it may be that there is a third variable that is causing both the building

    of roads and the birthrate, that is causing the correlation we observe. For instance,

    perhaps the general world economy is responsible for both. When the economy is

    good more roads are built in Europe and more children are born in the U.S. The key

    lesson here is that you have to be careful when you interpret correlations. If you

    observe a correlation between the number of hours students use the computer to study

    and their grade point averages (with high computer users getting higher grades), you

    cannot assume that the relationship is causal: that computer use improves grades. In

    this case, the third variable might be socioeconomic status -- richer students who have

    greater resources at their disposal tend to both use computers and do better in their

    grades. It's the resources that drives both use and grades, not computer use that causes

    the change in the grade point average.

    Patterns of Relationships

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    We have several terms to describe the major different types of patterns one might find

    in a relationship. First, there is the case of no relationship at all. If you know the

    values on one variable, you don't know anything

    about the values on the other. For instance, I

    suspect that there is no relationship between the

    length of the lifeline on your hand and your grade

    point average. If I know your GPA, I don't have any

    idea how long your lifeline is.

    Then, we have the positive relationship . In a positive relationship, high values on

    one variable are associated with high values on the other and low values on one are

    associated with low values on the other. In this example, we assume an idealized

    positive relationship between years of education and the salary one might expect to be

    making.

    On the other hand a negative relationship implies that high values on one variable are

    associated with low values on the other. This is also sometimes termed an inverse

    relationship. Here, we show an idealized negative relationship between a measure of

    self esteem and a measure of paranoia in psychiatric patients.

    These are the simplest types of relationships we might typically estimate in research.

    But the pattern of a relationship can be more complex than this. For instance, the

    figure on the left shows a relationship that changes over the range of both variables, a

    curvilinear relationship. In this example, the horizontal axis represents dosage of a

    drug for an illness and the vertical axis represents a severity of illness measure. As

    dosage rises, severity of illness goes down. But at some point, the patient begins to

    experience negative side effects associated with too high a dosage, and the severity of

    illness begins to increase again.

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    Variables

    Experiments and research studies are designed around variables. Variables are

    measured; variables are manipulated by the experimenter to see how they affect other

    variables; two or more variables are measured at the same time to see if there is any

    relationship among them. So what then is a variable? It is anything that can vary along

    some dimension, or, in other words, it is anything that can be measured.

    Distinguishing Between a Variable