research department brady darvin, research manager

Research DepartmentBrady Darvin, Research Manager

CTHE Organizational Structure

P a u l Jon esR e se a rch A n a lyst

B rady D a rv inR e se arch M an ag er

S tev e L yo nsV P , B us in ess D ev e lop m e nt

M arsha ll Fo rs te rE V P , N o r th A m er ica

L e xin e W o ngE V P , W or ldw ide M arke ting

B en Fe in go ldP re sid e n t, C T H E

2 CTHE Research Dept.

CTHE Research Personnel

• Brady Darvin– Oversee all domestic research needs of CTHE– Primary contact with all CTHE senior executives

& outside research vendors– Liaise with other SPE & SCA divisions– Manage 2 analysts, 2 Nielsen on-site consultants

• Paul Jones– Quantitative analyses– Interpretation of data, trendspotting


Secondary Research: Major Resources

• Nielsen VideoScan (retail POS data)• VidTrac (rental POS data)• Nielsen Entertainment Marketing Solutions

(MarketNavigator geodemographic system)• Understanding & Solutions (International)• Industry Estimates & Trends (Domestic)

– Alexander & Associates– Adams Media Research– Nielsen Entertainment Index– Consumer Electronics Association


Secondary Research:Databases/Subscriptions

• Lexis-Nexis– for due diligence, industry & title-specific news

monitoring

• IMDB Pro– Subscription version of the Internet Movie

Database (BO revenues & production info)

• Publications– Video Store, Video Business, Variety, Discount

Store News, The DVD Release Report, others


Major Research Areas:Volumetric/POS Sales Projections

• Title-level volumetric projections for DVD & VHS releases– Title-specific projections of DVD & VHS sales (both

before and after theatrical release)– Use regression models based on estimated BO, genre,

past competitive titles, type of release, date of release– Field intent-to-purchase surveys for key titles

• Category-level projections for total home video industry

• Tracking of competitive title sales & pricing by channel of distribution

• Due diligence for potential acquisitions


Major Research Areas:Product Development/Strategy

• Franchise/line extensions & new franchise development

• Television series on DVD

• DVD product configuration (e.g., aspect ratios, number of discs, added value)

• Release date scheduling strategy


Major Research Areas:Retail/Industry Trends

• Merchandising, placement, fixtures• Pricing, retail promotions• Tracking of competitive sales & marketing

promotions• Monitoring wide range of news sources &

distributing to relevant CTHE executives


Major Research Areas:Primary Consumer Research

• Intent-to-Purchases (telephone): for very big titles and others with special circumstances (6-10 per year)

• Package testing (online): for key titles, when alternative to theatrical key art is being considered

• Brand awareness/feedback, e.g. Superbit DVDs, Spanish packaging, children’s franchises (telephone & online)


• Nielsen Entertainment Marketing Solutions• ePoll• Nielsen ReelResearch• Harris Interactive• Lieberman Worldwide

CTHE Primary Research Resources


CTHE Databases & Tools Developed In-House

• Competitive release database

• POS projection models

• Revenue projection models

• Reports repository

• Product allocation modeling for VMI accounts


Projects in Development

• DVD Attitude & Usage Survey

• Competitive Pricing Analysis

• Micro-analysis of CTHE catalog product

• Next-generation home video products


Research Wants• More qualitative analysis: focus groups,

copy testing, mall intercepts, etc.• International territories:

– POS tracking– DVD hardware penetration– Pricing & distribution

• Advanced statistical techniques– Factor analysis, perceptual mapping– Logit/probit models– Conjoint & discrete choice analysis


Strategic Analyses: Examples

• Pricing & promotion of catalog titles vs. new releases

• Growth of DVD in the grocery channel• Effect of advertising on consumer sales• Widescreen vs. Pan & Scan DVDs• Effect of VHS decline on DVD sales• Effect of theatrical sequels on video sales of

original


Product-Specific Analyses: Examples

• Length of time between releases of regular edition & “special edition” versions of a DVD title

• How to price a multi-disc DVD set of a TV series’ complete season

• How many episodes per title & titles per wave to release of a kids’ series

• Various studies on pricing, product lifecycles, etc.


Nielsen VideoScan

• VideoScan and ACNielsen (a partnership since January 2000, and sister companies under the VNU banner since 2001) collect and integrate point-of-sale (POS) data.

• Reporting retailers transmit scanned purchase data weekly to either VideoScan or ACNielsen to provide a comprehensive view of the VHS and DVD sell-through business.

• Data reports are delivered to subscribing customers within the entertainment industry through the Nielsen VideoScan web sites and the ACNielsen NITRO data delivery system.


Nielsen VideoScan

• Sales data is captured from traditional channels of video distribution, which include mass merchants, audio/video and video specialty retailers, electronics outlets, grocery and drug channels, and some Internet sites.

• Reporting retailers include:– Specialty Retail (i.e. Blockbuster, Tower, Wherehouse)

– Discount Mass (i.e. Kmart, Target)

– Drug & Grocery (i.e., Walgreen’s, Ralph’s, Kroger)

– Other Mass (i.e. Best Buy, Circuit City)

– Able to project to estimate 100% of domestic market


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WEEK ENDING

WEE

KL

Y D

VD

PO

S U

NIT

S

2002

2001

Titans

Dinosaur/ What Lies Beneath

BringIt On

Lady & theTramp II

Meet TheParents

Charlie's/ 6th Day

Men Of Honor

Congeniality/New Groove

Vertical Limit

Hannibal

Mummy Returns

Star Wars: Episode 1

Fast & The Furious

American P ie 2

Crouching Tiger

Traffic

Cast Away

Apes/Grinch

Princess Diaries/Moulin Rouge

Rush Hour 2

NOTE: Week ending 12/21/01 Volume = 17.4M; Week ending 12/29/01 Volume = 13.2M

Shrek

Pearl Harbor

P eter P an SE

Cinderella 2/J ay & Silent Bob

The One SEAI - WS & P S

Training Day

Behind Enemy Lines

Harry Potter

Ocean's Eleven

Black Hawk Down

Resident Evil

Lord of the Rings

We Were Soldiers

Blade 2

Sample Data from Nielsen VideoScan


Rank for Week

Ending 09/14/02 Title Studio

Release Date

Weeks in Release

Box Office ($M) DVD Source

ARP (Mass, Drug,

Grocery) Grocery Drug Target K-mart

Remaining Discount

MassOther Mass*

Specialty Retail**

Internet/Mail Order

Sum-Available Channels

1 CHANGING LANES PARA 9/10/02 1 66.74 D/D VHS RENTAL $16.40 1,594 - 26,178 3,465 3,950 116,859 36,586 18 188,650

2 COUNT OF MONTE CRISTO-2002 DISN 9/10/02 1 54.23 D/D VHS RENTAL $17.52 1,632 2,132 23,986 3,129 3,951 109,330 41,192 22 185,374

3 BLADE 2 NEWL 9/3/02 2 81.67 D/D VHS ST $22.33 8,155 - 14,158 8,241 2,641 74,586 43,950 6 151,737

4 WE WERE SOLDIERS PARA 8/20/02 4 78.12 D/D VHS RENTAL $19.95 1,374 19 7,549 2,150 1,207 25,801 11,760 7 49,867

5 ROOKIE-PS DISN 8/27/02 3 75.35 D/D VHS ST $20.16 6,985 3,260 12,155 6,486 1,737 6,109 2,536 1 39,269

6 HIGH CRIMES FOX 8/27/02 3 41.52 D/D VHS RENTAL $20.02 535 - 6,195 1,037 1,167 16,511 5,582 2 31,029

7 VAN WILDER-UNRATED ARTI 8/20/02 4 21.08 D/D VHS RENTAL $19.97 38 - - - - 19,821 11,042 3 30,904

8 LORD OF THE RINGS-2001-WS NEWL 8/6/02 6 312.2 D/D VHS ST $22.79 307 - 3,452 815 962 12,441 9,672 - 27,649

9 9/11-FILMMAKERS COMMEMORATIVE PARA 9/10/02 1 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $20.14 847 - 6,288 - 1,035 12,018 7,130 10 27,328

10 ROOKIE-WS DISN 8/27/02 3 75.35 D/D VHS ST $23.70 175 582 5 - 4 20,447 5,971 1 27,185

11 MICKEYS HOUSE OF VILLAINS DISN 9/3/02 2 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $20.22 4,501 1,766 5,473 2,090 1,095 9,686 2,145 1 26,757

12 RESERVOIR DOGS-10TH ANNIVERSAR ARTI 8/27/02 3 2.832 CATALOG $19.91 8 - 3,481 684 625 12,906 8,213 12 25,929

13 LORD OF THE RINGS-2001-PS NEWL 8/6/02 6 313.1 D/D VHS ST $23.23 3,869 1,946 3,833 1,594 684 6,284 4,414 - 22,624

14 PULP FICTION-COLLECTORS EDITIO DISN 8/20/02 4 107.9 CATALOG $19.95 58 - 2,089 591 532 13,274 5,306 - 21,850

15 NEAR DARK ABAY 9/24/02 -1 3.369 CATALOG $20.00 - - - 404 19 19,638 856 7 20,924

16 IN MEMORIAM-NEW YORK CITY 9/11 HBO 9/3/02 2 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $16.80 2,511 3,868 4,128 900 511 5,724 2,601 4 20,247

17 ALL ABOUT THE BENJAMINS NEWL 8/20/02 4 25.50 D/D VHS ST $19.91 217 - 2,846 415 527 9,818 6,355 - 20,178

18 SOPRANOS-THIRD SEASON 5PK HBO 8/27/02 3 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $79.53 108 - 1,753 246 112 11,366 6,242 4 19,831

19 SCHOOLHOUSE ROCK-30TH ANNIVERS DISN 8/27/02 3 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $19.43 817 - 4,721 684 1,041 7,126 2,567 1,141 18,097

20 CNN TRIBUTE-AMERICA REMEMBERS TURN 8/19/02 4 NOT COLL D/D VHS ST $9.60 774 - 5,358 - 671 8,766 1,717 2 17,288

21 RETURN TO NEVERLAND DISN 8/20/02 4 48.43 D/D VHS ST $20.40 2,326 1,096 3,565 1,416 274 3,044 2,306 - 14,027

22 QUEEN OF THE DAMNED-FS WHV 8/27/02 3 30.32 D/D VHS ST $19.84 816 - 4,598 1,411 1,386 3,195 2,084 3 13,493

23 QUEEN OF THE DAMNED-WS WHV 8/27/02 3 30.32 D/D VHS ST NOT COLL - - - - - 7,320 5,053 - 12,373

24 SIMPSONS-SEASON 2 4PK FOX 8/6/02 6 NOT COLL CATALOG $39.59 37 - 1,733 114 374 6,584 3,439 - 12,281

25 COLLATERAL DAMAGE WHV 7/30/02 7 40.06 D/D VHS RENTAL $20.51 139 507 1,247 299 415 6,952 2,241 2 11,802

VideoScan Weekly POS

DVD2002 WEEKLY POS-TOP 100

WEEK ENDING 09/14/02


Sample Data from Nielsen VideoScan

Nielsen MarketNavigator• SQL server-based software platform complete with

applications designed specifically for the home entertainment industry

• Provides unique view of the retail and marketing landscape• MarketNavigator is a data/information repository containing

thousands of consumer purchase potential and behavioral profiles as well as demographic information on thousands of retail stores.

• System allows for extensive analysis of proprietary client sales and survey data.

• Built-in databases include:•Demographic data and PRIZM lifestyle information from Claritas•National consumer data from Simmons Market Research Bureau•Local market consumer data from Scarborough Research•Store lists with gravity model trade areas from Spectra


Nielsen MarketNavigator

• Purchase potential for DVD/VHS releases (new and catalog)• Retailer insight (e.g. detail about consumers in store trade

areas)• Store cluster development (e.g. Hispanic clusters, Art House

clusters, etc.)• Targeting applications (e.g, selection of the best markets,

retailers, and consumer segments for specific products)• Product allocation models that enable clients to optimize their

product distribution at the individual store level• Marketing/co-promotion partner identification and ranking

(e.g. beverages, consumer packaged goods, electronics, etc.)• Media mix optimization (e.g. print, television, radio, etc.)• Data warehousing (storage and retrieval of sales data by title,

store, and week)


Movie Satisfaction: xXx

• 67% of DVD buyers and 44% of VHS buyers surveyed considered xXx to be “very good” or “excellent”

Movie Satisfaction - DVD Buyers xXx

Austin Powers Blood Work Blue Crush

K-19: The Widowmaker Signs

Excellent/Very Good 67% 60% 73% 66% 58% 69%

Excellent 41% 24% 19% 31% 17% 32%

Good 27% 29% 19% 31% 42% 18%

Fair/Poor 6% 10% 8% 3% 0% 12%

Movie Satisfaction - VHS Buyers xXx

Austin Powers Blood Work Blue Crush

K-19: The Widowmaker Signs

Excellent/Very Good 44% 53% 70% 50% 75% 76%

Excellent 17% 14% 17% 29% 13% 33%

Good 39% 31% 17% 36% 19% 18%

Fair/Poor 17% 16% 13% 14% 6% 5%


Note: “Excellent/Very Good” percentages are the sums of those who answered “Excellent” and those who answered “Very Good,” thus columns do not add to 100%.

Buyer Demographics: MIB II

• Men in Black II has a relatively balanced appeal for both males & females aged 18-54 (for both formats) • Of the DVD & VHS buyers with positive purchase intent for MIB II, the film appeals most strongly to males aged 18-34

DVD Buyer IndicesMen in Black II Like Mike

Scooby Doo

Star Wars: Episode II

Minority Report

Bourne Identity

Females 18-34 118 247 143 116 154 154Males 18-34 146 82 119 174 179 144Females 35-54 129 114 149 107 64 88Males 35-54 129 88 124 136 140 14555-64 19 26 9 32 26 3165+ 19 18 9 7 15 9Total 100 100 100 100 100 100

VHS Buyer IndicesMen in Black II

Like Mike**

Scooby Doo

Star Wars: Episode II

Minority Report

The Bourne

Identity**Females 18-34 105 124 150 94 82 60Males 18-34 154 53 111 134 222 91Females 35-54 133 208 173 100 97 124Males 35-54 112 92 87 165 105 16655-64 47 37 33 75 45 6965+ 21 37 10 9 35 57Total 100 100 100 100 100 100


Note: An index above 100 indicates an above-average representation of a particular demographic group (e.g. with an index of 154, a male VHS buyer aged 18-34 is 1.54 times more likely to be a Men in Black II buyer than the average US individual).

• 56% of DVD buyers with positive purchase intent for Stuart Little II on DVD said they would purchase it by the 4th week after release

• 43% of VHS buyers with positive purchase intent for Stuart Little II on VHS said they would purchase it by the 4th week after release

Positive Purchase Intent - DVD Buyers

Pre-Order through 4th

Week of Release

Spy Kids 2 77%

Scooby Doo 67%

Lilo & Stich 66%

Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron 58%

Stuart Little 2 56%

The Country Bears 52%

Positive Purchase Intent -VHS Buyers

Pre-Order through 4th

Week of Release

Lilo & Stich 54%

Scooby Doo 51%

Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron 47%

The Country Bears 44%

Spy Kids 2 44%

Stuart Little 2 43%

Purchase Timing: Stuart Little 2


Thank you!

• Contact information:Brady DarvinResearch ManagerColumbia TriStar Home Entertainment10202 West Washington Blvd., SPP 2418Culver City, CA 90232PH: (310) 244-3896E-mail: [email protected]


research department brady darvin, research manager

Documents

cthe research dept

secondary research

research vendorsliaise

major research areas

relevant cthe executives

cthe senior executives

cthe databases tools

dvd release report