republic of south sudan: statehood and the challenges ahead

8/3/2019 Republic of South Sudan: Statehood and the Challenges Ahead

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Republic of South Sudan

Statehood and the Challenges Ahead

David H. Shinn

Elliott School of International Affairs

George Washington University27 October 2011


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TAKE-AWAYS

Begins independence with high expectations.

Euphoria will prevail over short-term.

Faces huge internal challenges. Faces huge external challenges.

Has about year to make significant progress.

Alternative is failed state.


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INDEPENDENCE PROCESS

2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

National Congress Party (NCP).

Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM).

Shared national government for 6 years.

Goal to make unity attractive.

CPA established governments in north andsouth.

Shared oil revenue 50-50.


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Separate northern and southern armies.

Joint units assigned to sensitive border areas.

North/south had separate command structures.

Withdrawal of 91,000 northern troops fromsouth.

National civil service positions split 70/30 favor of

north. Special provisions for sensitive areas.

Includes Abyei, Southern Kordofan & Blue Nile.


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Sharia law applicable only in north.

North and south had own flags.

2005 death of SPLM leader John Garang. Ended prospect of north/south unity in south.

North failed to take steps encouraging unity.


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WORLDS NEWEST COUNTRY

January 2011 South Sudan secession referendum.

Overwhelming vote in favor.

9 July 2011 independence South Sudan.

Population now 8.2 million.

Slightly smaller than Texas.

Landlocked; 15 percent is swamp.

Borders Central African Republic, DRC, Uganda,

Kenya, Ethiopia & Sudan.


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Salva Kiir & Omar Bashir


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WORLDS NEWEST COUNTRY

More than 60 local languages.

Majority animist, minority Christian, some

Muslims.

90% population lives in poverty.

27% adult literacy rate.

2 airports with paved runways. 4% agricultural land cultivated.


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UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)

Became operational 9 July 2011.

Mandate one year renewable.

7,000 military personnel.

900 civilian police.

Foster state-building and economicdevelopment

Conflict resolution and protect civilians.

Strengthen security and justice sectors.


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The Oil Conundrum

50-50 oil revenue split is finished.

75% Sudans oil in South Sudan.

90-95% oil field personnel are northerners. Pipelines and refinery in north.

Oil Revenue 98% of South Sudan budget.

South Sudan now marketsits oil.


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The Oil Conundrum

South Sudan ships oil through northern

infrastructure.

South Sudan pays pipeline/terminal fees to

north and private companies.

Receives all revenue from its oil.

Khartoum markets its 25% share.

Khartoum experienced huge revenue loss.

North-south negotiating revenue sharing.


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The Oil Conundrum

South Sudan offered to pay standard pipelinefees.

Khartoum wants much higher fees.

South Sudan says Khartoum threatened to closepipeline.

Khartoum wants agreement by end of October.

Deal currently stalemated. Alternative pipeline through Kenya or Ethiopia.

Would take years to construct.


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Abyei Region

Located on north-south border.

Contested by both sides.

Resident Ngok Dinka support South Sudan.

Nomadic Misseriya support Khartoum.

Referendum on future never occurred.

Limited oil in Abyei.

Khartoums main interest support forMisseriya.


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Abyei Region

Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) invaded in May 2011.

100,000 Ngok Dinka fled to South Sudan.

SPLM properly called foul.

Both sides agreed to admit Ethiopian

peacekeepers.

Only about half of 4,000 peacekeepers present.

SAF and South Sudan troops still in place.

Both sides accepted joint oversight committee.


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Other Border Issues

20% of north/south border still not agreed.

Constitutes 5 different pieces of border.

South Sudan wants to demarcate 80% agreed

upon. If no agreement on 20%, wants binding

arbitration.

South Sudan issued map claiming large chunk ofKenya.

Likely to cause friction with Kenya.


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SPLM/North

Led by Yasir Arman; opposed Bashir for

president.

SPLM/N split from SPLM on 8 September.

Became opposition party in north.

Khartoum banned SPLM/N days later.

Banned 16 other parties linked to SouthSudan.

Effectively have new south in north.


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SPLA Troops


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SPLM/North

SPLM/N called publicly for ouster of Bashir.

Linked to opposition groups in Darfur and NubaMountains.

All of them trying to topple Bashir. Receives support from individuals in South

Sudan.

Probably supported by SPLM in South Sudan.

Several thousand SPLM/N troops in Blue Nile andSouthern Kordofan.

Come from former 9th and 10th SPLA divisions.


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Southern Kordofan

North of border, but disputed by north/south.

Rich in oil; 115,000 barrels per day.

Nuba people sympathetic to SPLM. SAF tried to disarm SPLM/N troops in June.

Up to 150,000 persons fled homes since June.

NCP won governorship in disputed election.


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SPLA/North Forces in Southern

Kordofan


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Southern Kordofan

Fighting between SPLM/N and SAF.

Khartoum vowed to crush rebellion.

SAF reportedly using aerial bombing.

SPLM/N asked US to impose no-fly zone.

US demurred.

Military stalemate.

SPLM/N calling for overthrow of Bashir.


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Blue Nile

North of border, but disputed by north/south.

Not oil producing area.

Population split on support for Khartoum and

SPLM/N. SPLM/N troops did not disarm according to

agreement.

SPLM/N candidate Malik Agar won governorship. September SPLM/N troops loyal to Agar attacked

SAF.


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Blue Nile

Khartoum sacked Agar.

Replaced Agar with NCP military governor.

Khartoum recruiting friendly Rufaa and Fellata

militias. Trying to crush opposition.

Military stalemate.

Fighting displaced 100,000 persons.

25,000 refugees fled to Ethiopia.


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Security Challenges

Seven South Sudan armed groups opposeSPLM/A.

Claim to fight SPLM/A corruption.

Some led by former SPLA leaders. Some allegedly have ties to Khartoum.

Marginalization is driving these groups.

Most are not significant threat.

South Sudan Liberation Movement/Army is Nuergroup.

Objective to bring down government.


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Security Challenges

Lt. Gen. George Athor most significant threat.

Former senior SPLA commander.

Padeng Dinka closely linked to Nuer.

Athor failed to win election for governor ofJonglei State.

Claimed SPLM rigged election.

Took his followers to bush. South Sudan claims Khartoum supporting rebel

groups.


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Security Challenges

Much of South Sudan population pastoral.

Long history of cattle raids in South Sudan.

Caused many deaths in past.

Recent resumption of attacks.

Luo Nuer recently killed 400 Murle.

Murle then killed 600 Luo Nuer; stole 25,000

cattle. Cattle raid in Unity State left 30 dead.


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Aftermath of Cattle Raid


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Security Challenges

South Sudan is awash in small arms.

Tribes better armed than police.

Police often run from these conflicts. Culture of violence developing.

Traditional conflict resolution not working.

South Sudan becoming broken society.


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SS National Army

Need to demobilize many South Sudan soldiers.

Most have no civilian skills.

Need vocational training.

Need army pension program.

Will be reluctance to downsize.

Could lead to strain on national debt.

Unplanned demobilization equals security threat.


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Demobilization of SPLM


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Corruption

Half of budget goes to salaries.

90% of military budget is for salaries.

Some salaries go to non-existent people.

Not sustainable budgetary program.

South Sudan received $8-10 billion in oil revenue.

No transparency in oil revenue.

Except for salaries, almost nothing to show for

$8-10 billion.


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Corruption

Much of it disappeared.

Officials have millions in bank accounts.

Corruption in contracting and tax collection.

Payments for illegally acquired land.

Capital flight out of country.

Obama raised corruption issue with South Sudan

president.

If corruption continues, aid donors will hold back.


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Lack of Development

South Sudan inherited terrible situation.

Minimal infrastructure.

Inadequate numbers of trained persons.

Significant poverty.

Some 340,000 southerners arrived fromnorth.

Development concentrated in Juba. Leads to complaints in rest of South Sudan.


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South Sudan Road


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Lack of Development

Most food imported from Uganda.

South Sudan will produce half of food needs in2011.

36% of population moderately or severely foodinsecure.

South Sudan facing chronic food shortages.

Could be 1.2 million severely food insecure in2012.

Need major push to develop agriculture.


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Political Issues

SPLM is authoritarian party.

Still shifting from rebel group to ruling party.

Sees opposition as treasonous.

Little tolerance for opposition parties.

Opposition parties are weak anyway.

Raises questions about future of democracy.


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republic of south sudan: statehood and the challenges ahead

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