reported emissions for models
DESCRIPTION
Reported emissions for models. Perspectives from MACC & MACC-II projects, and the use of the LOTOS-EUROS AQ model. Jeroen Kuenen, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Magdalena Jozwicka, Antoon Visschedijk. Total NMVOC, 2009. What do emission inventories offer?. Procedural process - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Reported emissions for models
Perspectives from MACC & MACC-II projects, and the use of the LOTOS-EUROS AQ model
Jeroen Kuenen,Hugo Denier van der Gon,Magdalena Jozwicka,Antoon Visschedijk
Total NMVOC, 2009
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
What do emission inventories offer?
Procedural processFollow the GuidelinesSpecifically set number of sourcesAim to use the best science
Annually we report again emissions for all years from the start of the period
Methods change over timeNew numbers every year for all years in the past
May 13, 2013
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
What do modellers need?
Modellers need emissions, but more than just “inventories”They need (high resolution) spatially distributed emissionsThey need temporally distributed emissionsThey need all sources, so not only the sources covered by reporting requirements (including non-anthropogenic sources)
Biogenic and soil emissionsResuspension, road dust
But above all, they need a fully consistent dataset accross the whole domain!
May 13, 2013
Officially reported emissions of PM10 (kt)
May 13, 2013Jeroen Kuenen
Reported emissions for models
Thanks to CEIP for making all this available!!!
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
Reported emission trendsA consistent emission inventory in space and time is key to modellers, as they aim to understand the spatial/temporal patterns
Trends in reported emissions are not always understandable
May 13, 2013
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
Country-to-country variations for NOX
May 13, 2013
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
Similar discrepancies for PM
May 13, 2013
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
Also spatial consistency is very important
In some cases, the average “emission density” at the border changes quite a lot
May 13, 2013
Source: reported emissions to CLRTAP (EEA website)
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
But there is more where we have work to do...
Work together between inventory people and modellers to identify missing or wrong sources
Sources are not covered by EIs can be very important for modellers (e.g. resuspension; road dust)VOC/PM composition; condensable organics are a candidate to add additional PM emissions (more in Expert Panel on Tuesday)International shippingOpen discussion of unknowns (e.g. NMVOCs from agriculture)
Bring in new pollutants where relevant, especially the composition of PM as there is a strong connection to climate change
Black carbon now being introduced
May 13, 2013
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
Elemental carbon emission map for 2005
May 13, 2013
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
But there is more where we have work to do...
Ensuring a consistent spatial distribution accross countriesCovering major point sources in all countries (connection to E-PRTR?)Using proxies to distribute area sources, in a consistent way
Work together with the modelling community to improve time profilesImprove the default profiles, more sectoral or region specific issuesUse actual data instead of default profiles, e.g. meteorology
May 13, 2013
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for modelsMay 13, 2013
Time profiles applied to anthropogenic emissions
NH3 Monthly
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
jan
feb
mar apr
may jun jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
Month
Emis
sion
(kt) Agriculture
Waste treatment and disposal
Other mobile sources
Road transport
Solvent use
Extraction distribution of fossil fuels
Industrial processes
Industrial combustion
Residential, commercial and other combustion
Power generation
PM2.5 Monthly
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
jan
feb
mar apr
may jun jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
Month
Emis
sion
(kt)
Agriculture
Waste treatment and disposal
Other mobile sources
Road transport
Solvent use
Extraction distribution of fossil fuels
Industrial processes
Industrial combustion
Residential, commercial and other combustion
Power generation
NOx Monthly
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
jan
feb
mar apr
may jun jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
Month
Emis
sion
(kt) Agriculture
Waste treatment and disposal
Other mobile sources
Road transport
Solvent use
Extraction distribution of fossil fuels
Industrial processes
Industrial combustion
Residential, commercial and other combustion
Power generation
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
Example of time profiles for power plants
May 13, 2013
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
Conclusions and recommendations
Both modellers and inventory compilers need to understand each other
Challenges ahead in terms of:Consistency of emission estimates in both space and timeImproving the spatial and temporal emission patternsNew sources and new pollutants
A good dialogue between inventory compilers and modellers is key to make progress
May 13, 2013
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
TNO-MACC_II inventory
Gridded emission inventory for 2003-2009 for UNECE Europe, used by many modelling groups in Europe for main air pollutants
Inventory is based on:Reported data where possibleAlternative data (e.g. GAINS emissions or own bottom-up estimates) where needed
All emissions (dis-)aggregated to 77 different source categories
Spatially distributed using general methodology for all countriesUse of annual E-PRTR data for distribution of PS emissions for selected sources, countries and pollutants
May 13, 2013
Jeroen KuenenReported emissions for models
May 13, 2013
Example: NOx total for 2009
Thank you!