report on integrated n emission abatement in research & policy, … · 2016. 2. 19. · report...

Report on integrated N emission abatement in research & policy, including progress of

Gothenburg Protocol

Alessandra De Marco1, Ilaria D’Elia1 and Laura Valli2

1ENEA, CR Casaccia, Rome, Italy, 2CRPA, Reggio Emila, Italy,

[email protected]

Italian national agency for new technologies,

energy and sustainable economic development

mailto:[email protected]



Air Quality in Europe

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

PM10 PM2.5 CO NOx NMVOC SOx NH3

Air Quality in Italy

-26% NH3 reduction in Europe -17% NH3 reduction In Italy

-44% NO2 reduction in Europe -53% NO2 reduction In Italy

In 2009



The tools available in Italy for assessing scenarios for ammonia reduction: the MINNI project

GAINS-Italy model

«Nitro Flussi» model



FAIRMODE (Forum for AIR quality MODElling) - a joint response action of the European Environment Agency (EEA)

and the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC). Its aim is to bring together air quality modelers and users in order to promote and support the harmonized use of models by EU member countries, with emphasis on their application to the

European Air Quality Directive.

FAIRMODE strongly recommends the use of models for the following applications:

Assessment of air quality levels to establish the extent of exceedances and establish population exposure

Forecasting air quality levels for short term mitigation and public information and warnings

Source allocation to determine the origin of exceedances and to provide a knowledge basis for planning strategies

Development and assessment of plans and measures to control AQ exceedances

In addition to these applications the use of models is strongly recommended for:

Designing monitoring networks when models are used in combination with monitoring

Determining the number of fixed monitoring sites that are required



Why we use the models?

RAIL

RAMS, LAPS

Emission Manager

SURFPRO Meteorology

Turbulence parameters

FARM

Emission scenario

ECMWF fields Local Data Emission inventories

(ISPRA ed EMEP)

Space and time info

Concentrations and Depositions

EMEP IC e BC

Subsystem METEO

Subsystem

EMISSION

Subsystem Air Quality

GAINS

Transfer function

MINNI Atmospheric Modelling System (AMS)



MINNI Model simulation METEOROLOGY: 1999, 2005: 20 km res RAMS (nudging) 4 km res LAPS (diagnostic) 2003, 2007: RAMS (nudging) 20km and 4km res. Two-way nesting EMISSION: National Inventory ISPRA (top-down national) + EMEP Boundary Conditions: EMEP AIR QUALITY: 20km and 4 km res. FARM One-way nesting



MINNI Available products

• meteorological fields 3D • 3D concentration field for the main pollutants • Years: 1999, 2005, 2003, 2007 • Time resolution: 1 hour • Space resolution: 20 km , 4 km • vertical grid: • 12 layers (up to 4 km) 1999 • 16 layers (up to 10 km) 2005, 2003, 2007



NO2 From 20km to 4km resolution



Building blocks of GAINS

Energy/agricultural projections

Emissions

Emission control options

Atmospheric dispersion

Air pollution impacts, Basket of GHG emissions

Costs

Energy models

(Markal, TIMES, PRIMES…)

)( 3

,

2

0

0

0

EOEEEE

DEtD

xE

DD

E

Dt

E

Dt

Iki

ki

kiIi

ii

ii

i

Si

i

Air Quality models



GAINS-Italy model

- Based on ORACLE database;

- Is not an emission inventory;

- Accessible on line in remote way from many users contemporary

http://gains-it.bologna.enea.it/gains/IT/index.login

SO2, NOx, NH3, COV, PM + 6 GHGs

Dep S, N (ox, red),

Conc PM2.5, O3, NOx, S0

LER due to PM2.5, premature deaths due to O3

ecosystems (acidification, eutrophycation)



from Member States to Regions

from 50 km spatial resolution to 20 km spatial resolution

From GAINS Europe to GAINS Italy…



Atmospheric Transfer Matrices (ATMs)

Emission Conc. & dep.

Piedmont

Emilia-Romagna

Sicily

ATMs represent the linear approximation of the system answer to the emission changes, respect to the reference scenario. In GAINS-Italy emission changes are at regional scale Pollutants concentration and deposition are estimated on a grid resolution of 20 km

ATMs are available for different meteorological years (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007 and average year)



National emission inventories available on line

Available on GAINS-Italia online, following this link http://gains-it.bologna.enea.it/gains/IT/index.login In the group ‘All scenarios’ with the following name: ‘NAT_CLE_NOCP’ for NOCP_2010 scenario ‘Baseline_2012_new_ev’ for BASELINE_2012 scenario ‘NAT_SEN_2013’ for SEN_2013 scenario

NOCP_2010 national scenario used as reference scenario for Italian position in the revision of the Gothenburg protocol BASELINE_2012 national scenario used for bilateral meeting with IIASA in 2012 for Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution SEN_2013 national scenario derived from the National Energy Strategy approved in march 2013, not yet regionalized






Emission scenarios: NOX

In the last scenario (SEN_2013) there is an increase in total NOX emissions respect to the NOCP_2010 scenario. Total NOX emission trend reflects the trend in the road transport sector where an increase in emissions is observed due to the update of Euro 5 Emission Factors from diesel cars and light duty.



Emission scenarios: NH3

A reduction in total NH3 emissions in the last scenario (SEN_2013) respect to the NOCP scenario. The trend is driven by the trend in N fertilizer consumption at the year 2010.



Emission scenarios: N2O





Progress of Gothenburg Protocol

NH3 target should be respected while for NOX it will depend on the successful implementation of Euro 6 standards

Some application of the model

Scenario: NOCP_2010 Control strategy: LNF (normally not applied) to 100% of the animals

Total Nitrogen deposition

Reference scenario LNF-modified scenario

% of reduction of total nitrogen deposition

% of reduction of reduced nitrogen deposition

Year 2020



Scenario: NOCP_2010 Control strategy: reduction of 50% of animal and dairy consumption

Reference scenario Diet50%-modified scenario




Year 2020



Scenario: NOCP_2010 Control strategy: reduction of 50% of animal and dairy consumption and LNF to 100% of the animals

Reference scenario Diet50%+LNF-modified scenario



Year 2020




«NitroFlussi» Model



An integrated model developed in Italy under the MINNI project

• The tool is based on Miterra-Europe model


energy and sustainable economic development How do the model works?

Nitro Flussi Model

Excel 2007 sheet: 20 sheet with same format (one per region)

Simply modifiable by the user

Different sections to introduce possible mitigation measures



- Able to evaluate the efficacy of the application of different measures

- Able to evaluate the impacts of nitrogen application on water and from water to atmosphere

- For the province scale of the model requests high resolution data



The model

Criteria

Definition at province scale;

Crops divided in 3 main categories: pasture, arable, horticultural + fruits crops;

Consistent with national emission inventory;

For nitrate leaching based on a schematic approach;

Time dynamic of nitrogen application to the soil is considered;

sludge

Solid manure

fertilizers



Nitrates Directive, aimed to reduce water pollution caused or induced by nitrate from agricultural sources. The Directive requires Member States to apply agricultural action programme measures throughout their whole territory or within discrete nitrate vulnerable zones (NVZ’s). Action programme measures are required to promote best practice in the use and storage of fertiliser and manure by 4 key measures: • Limiting inorganic N fertiliser application to crop requirements. • Limiting organic manure applications. • Seasonal restrictions on the application of slurry, manure sand sludge on sandy and

shallow soils. • Maintenance of farm records that encompass cropping, livestock numbers and

fertiliser management.

Scenarios applied

Low Nitrogen Feeding with two efficacy levels: medium (7% Nreduction) and high (15% Nreduction) Diet 50% reduction of animal and dairy consumption



0

5

10

15

20

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

N_NH3 N_NO2 N_NOx N-runoff N_leaching

LNF-medium efficacy scenario

LNF-high efficacy scenario



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

N_NH3 N_NO2 N_NOx N_runoff N_leaching

Diet50% reduction scenario

Nitrate Directive scenario



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

LNF_high Nitrate_D diet

0 10 20 30 40 50 60


NH3

N2O

NOx

Impacts of the scenarios on emissions



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 20 40 60 80

100 120


N_runoff

N_leaching

Impacts of the scenarios on Nitrogen in water





Conclusions

About the Gothenburg targets at the year 2020, NH3 target should be respected while for NOX it will depend on the successful implementation of Euro 6 standards Next target levels will be more on sectors not yet considered enough, like agriculture in fact agricultural sector shows some margins of emission reductions Impacts of the economic crisis on emission trends for ammonia, following fertilizers consumption, are detected by the new national scenario From GAINS-Italy application, relatively low impacts on nitrogen deposition of low nitrogen feeding scenarios, even if applied to the total animal number Higher levels of nitrogen deposition reduction are in the more critical areas of the country Higher impacts of reduced Nitrogen deposition can be achieved by change in dietary habits, assuming that these are followed by proportional animal production Results on reduced meat and dairy consumption obtained by GAINS-Italy confirmed by the Nitro-flussi model: human diet change is more efficient than low nitrogen feeding Nitrate Directive scenario very efficient in reducing nitrogen leaching, but not in reducing N emissions in air



Thank you for your attention

What is your opinion about food scarcity in the rest

of the world?

What is food?

What is scarcity?

What is the rest of the

world? What is

opinion?

Different perspectives…..

report on integrated n emission abatement in research & policy, … · 2016. 2. 19. · report...

Documents