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Report No. 1469-BD FILE COPYBangladesh: Current Economic Situation andDevelopment Policy Issues
May 19, 1977
South Asia Region
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Document of the World Bank
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties Its contents may nototherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.
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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
Prior to January 1, 1972:
US$1 = Pakistan Rs 4.762
Rs 1 = US$0.21
Rs 1,000,000 = US$210,000
Average 1972 - May 1975:
US$1 = Tk 8.0
Tk 1 US$0.125
Tk 1,000,000 = US$125,000
Since May 17, 1975:
The Bangladesh Taka (Tk) is officially valued at26.70 to the Pound Sterling. The Pound is floating relativeto the US dollar and consequently the Taka-US dollar rate is
subject to change. As of January 1977:
US$1 = Tk 15.55
Tk 1 = US$0.064
Tk 1,000,000 = US$64,300
QUANTITIES AND WEIGHTS
I crore = 10 million
1 lakh = 100,000
1 maund (md)=40 seers = 82.2 lbs.1 bale = 400 lbs.
In general the units of measurement referred to in this Reportare those which are actually used or are familiar in Bangladesh.
FISCAL YEAR
July 1 through June 30
This report is based on the information gathered by a mission consisting ofCarl Jayarajah (Chief), Ramgopal Agarwala (Deputy), Akeel AlSadi, Sang Mok
Suh, Fred King, Kattoor Pisharoti, David Beckmann and Betty Dow. The missionvisited Bangladesh in November, 1976. Contributions to this report were also
made by Luis Plesch.
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLYBANGLADESH
CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY ISSUES
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page No.
BASIC DATA
LIST OF TEXT, TABLES AND CHARTS
1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY ................................ 1
Recent Developments ... ......... . . . ... . .... . .... 1Development Issues .......... o......... . ........... 3
PART I: THE CURRENT SITUATION
2. RECENT ECONOMIC TRENDS .......... . . .. . . ........ ... .oo 6
Introduction .. o.o ........... ................... 6Agriculture o ............ . ..... - . .... .. 7Industry -........................ oo- - - -o.............. 8Public Finance .... ..... .. ........... ............. 10
3. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND AID REQUIREMENTS ................ 13
Balance of Payments 1976/77 ............ .......... 13Exports .. .. ........ o- ........- .-.......... 13Imports -... o..o.......o......... oo-........................ 14Economic Prospects and Balance of Payments,
1977/78 ...... o .................................. 15Aid Requirements ... ....... ...... ...... . ............ 19
PART II: DEVELOPMENT POLICY ISSUES
4. DEVELOPMENT ISSUES AND ADMINISTRATION ................. .. 21
Development Issues ...... ..... ............... &..... . 21Development Administration ...- ........ . 23
5. POPULATION CONTROL . ..... ....... . o...... ..... . ...... . .. 27
6. FOOD PRODUCTION AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT .o .................. 33
The Problem . ....... ..... o..... .... - . . -- 33The Current Approach ...... .- ......... o 33The Potential ................. ... . ....... . . . 34Increasing Foodgrain Production ......oo- ....... 35Pricing and Procurement .....** ...... .......... 38
This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. It contents may not otherwise be disclosd without World Bank authorization.
TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont'd) - 2 -
Page No.
7. RESOURCE MOBILIZATION ................................... 41
A. Domestic Resources ................................ 41Fiscal Performance ............................ 41Revenue Potentials ... ......................... 44Subsidies .................................... 47
B. Exports ... ................................. 49Raw Jute Production ........................ . . 50Jute Manufactures ............................. 52Non-Jute Exports .............................. 54Export Expansion .............................. 54Export Incentives ... .......................... 55
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
MAP
TEXT TABLES
Table No. Page No.
1. Foodgrain Production ... ................. .. .......... . 72. Production in Selected Industries .............. ..... 93. Government Finances .............. .. ................. 124. Balance of Payments . .................... . .......... . 14
5. Merchandise Exports ................ ................. 166. Merchandise Imports .............. .. ................. 177. Aid Commitments and Disbursements 1976/77 and
1977/78 ........ ................................... 208. Projected Population Growth Rate and Contraceptives
Acceptors Target ................................. 28
9. Delivery of Contraceptive Services .................. . 3010. Death Rates by Landholding in Companiganj Thana, 1975 3211. A Scenario for Increasing Foodgrain Production by
500,000 Tons per Year .. ............... ... ......... . 36
12. Domestic Revenue and Expenditure ..................... 4213. Tax Revenue .......................... ............... 4314. Indicators of Revenue and Expenditure .... ............ 4315. Financial Performance of Public Sector Corporations .. 4516. Agriculture Input Subsidies .......... ................. 47
17. Estimated Foodgrain Subsidy ..... ..................... 4818. Merchandise Exports Values ....... .................... 4919. Exports of Raw Jute . .... .... . . ..................... . 5020. Exports of Jute Goods ....................... ........ 52
Page 1 of 2 pages
COUNTRY DATA - BANGLADESH
AREA 2 POPULATION DENSITY144,000 klr 79.3million (mid-1975) 550 per km;2i
Rate of Growth: 2.8 (froml965 to1970 ) 815 per ki- of agricultural land
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1215) HEALTH (1973)Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 46 Population per physician 10,000Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 16 Population per hospital bed 6,000Infant Mortaij.y (per 1,000 live births) 130
INCOME DISTRIBUTION (1969) DISTRIBUTION OF LAND OWNERSHIP (1968)"I. of national income, highest quintile 40 % owned by top 107 of owners 34
lowest quintile 9 7 owned by smallest 107 of owners 1
ACCESS TO PIPED WATER (year) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (year% of population - urban .. 7. of population - urban
- rural .. - rural
NUTRITION (1969-71) EDUCATION (year)Calorie intake as % of requirements 80 Adult literacy rate 7 23 (1961)Per capita protein intake (grams per day) 40 Primary school enrollment % 56 (1973)
1/GNP PER CAPITA in 1975 : US $ 110
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1975/76 ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH (7.. constant prices)
US $ Mln. % 1960-65 1965-70 1973-76
GNP at Market Prices 9,870 100.0 4.6 3.6 4.9Gross Domestic Investment 15.5 6.3Gross National Saving 3.3 5Current Account Balance 909 9.2Exports of Goods, NFS 381 3.9 2.0 3.9 -Imports of Goods, NFS 1,290 13.0 12.2 6.8 -1.5
OUTPUT, LABOR FORCE ANDPRODUCTIVITY IN 1972/73
2/Value Added Labor Force- V. A. Per Worker
US $ Mln. 7 Mln. 7% US $ %
Agriculture 3,403 60 20.5 78 166 76Industry 412 7 1.8 7 229 105Services 1,887 33 3.9 15 484 222Unallocated
Total/Average 5,702 100. 26.2 100. 217 100.
GOVERNMENT FINANCECentral Government
(Taka Mln.) 7 of GDP2 1973/74 1975-76
Current Receipts 8,826 6.2 11.2Current Expenditure 6,837 7.0 8.7Current Surplus 1,989 -0.8 2.5Capital Expenditures 8,500 4.8 10.8External Assistance (net) 6,290 4.7 8.0
1/ The Per Capita GNP estimate is at 1973-75 market prices, calculated by the same conversiontechnique as the 1972 World Atlas. All other conversions to dollars in this table areat the average exchange rate prevailing during the period covere4.
2/ Total labor force; unemployed are allocated to sector of their normal occupation. "Unallocated" consistsmainly of unemployed workers seeking their first job.
not availablenot applicable
Page 2 of 2 pages
COUNTRY DATA - BANGLADESH
Dec. Dec. Dec. 17, June June JuneMONEY, CREDIT and PRICES 1965 1969 1970 1971 1973 1975 1976
(Million Taka outstanding end period)
Money and Quasi Money 5,016 5,952 5,460 9,891 12,877 14,380Bank Credit to Public Sector (3,216 3,960 5,112 5,832Bank Credit to Private Sector ( (3,388 (4,252 2,594 3,011 3,546
(Percentages or Index Numbers)
Money and Quasi Money as 7 of GDP .. 20 18 20 16 18General Price Index (1970 - 100) .. 1oo 120 280 410 366Annual percentage changes in:
General Pric- Index .. .. 20 48 35 -11Bank credit to Public Sector (3 ( (2 (54 9 14Bank credit to Private Sector ( (5 (26 -6 18
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1973-76)
1969/70 1973/74 1975/76 US $ Mln h
(Millions US $) Raw Jute 114 32
Jute Goods 192 53Exports of Goods, NFS 479 339 381 Tea 16 4Imports of Goods, NFS 594 958 1,290Resource Gap (deficit = -) -115 -619 -909
Interest Payments (net) I All other commodities 38 11Workers' Remittances I Total 360 lQQ,OOther Factor Payments (net) 10 1Net Transfers EXTERNAL DEBT, June 30. 1976Balance on Current Account -656 J
US $ MlnDirect Foreign InvestmentNet MLT Borrowing Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 1,809
Disbursement 297 578 Non-Guaranteed Private Debt 20Amortization 10 78 Total outstanding & DisbursedSubtotal 287 500 /1
Capital Grants 204 236 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for19 75/76-Other Capital (net) 122 %Other items n.e.i 68 --
Increase in Reserves (+) -97 5 Public Debt, incl. guaranteed 22.8Non-Guaranteed Private Debt --
Gross Reserves (end year) 64 213 Total outstanding & Disbursed 22.8Net Reserves (end year) -- --
RATE OF EXCHANGE IBRD/IDA LENDING. (June 1976) (Million US $):
Through - 1971 IBRD IDAUS $ 1.00= Pakistan Rs. 4.76Rs. 1.00 = US $ 0.21 Outstanding & Disbursed 54.9 379.8
Undisbursed -- 287.6Average 1973/74 Outstanding incl. Undisbursed 54.9 A67.4US $ 1.00 = Tk. 8.0Tk.1.00 = US $ 0.125
Average 1976/77TTsq 1.00 = Tk. 15.5Tk. 1.00 = US$ 0.065
/1 Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Goods and Non-Factor Services.
, not available
. not applicable
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY
1. The 1975 and 1976 IBRD reports on the Bangladesh economy dealtmainly with the country's efforts to deal with the severe difficulties posedby separation from Pakistan, then by inflation and international recession,by the weather, and by the need to adopt policies to replace stagnation witheconomic growth. Having made sound adjustments in short-term economic man-agement, and achieved greater political stability, the Government began in1976/77, to address the difficult challenge of promoting the country's eco-nomic development.
2. The main body, (Part II) of this report, focuses on some of the policyissues which confront the Government in attempting to reach its developmentobjectives. The range of problems with which Bangladesh must deal is largeand the scope of the present treatment of development issues is inevitablylimited. A number of major policy areas - for example, the need for a sys-tematic quantitative framework of the economy over the medium term, includinginvestment requirements and their financing; investment priorities; industrialstrategy; rural development; and a number of pressing problems in the field ofhuman resources, including education and health, could not be treated in thepresent report, but many will be dealt with in Bank reports in the next twoyears. Before turning to a consideration of issues of development policy inPart II, the report provides a review of recent trends in the Bangladesheconomy, including an estimate of aid requirements for the coming year.
Recent Developments
3. Economic developments in Bangladesh in recent years fall into twodistinct phases. The first phase, which was one of relief and rehabilita-tion, lasted for nearly three and a half years from independence to mid-1975.During this period the nation was struggling to overcome the ravages of war.There was widespread scarcity of essential goods, physical infrastructure wasseriously disrupted, and administrative and managerial skills were severelydepleted. This coincided with upheavals in the international economy due tothe "oil crisis", a dramatic worsening of the country's terms of trade, anddrought in 1972/73, followed by floods in 1974/75. By the end of 1974, theinflation rate had reached 80 percent per year, international reserves werevirtually exhausted, and the shortage of food was critical--over 30,000 personsdied of starvation and thousands more were left severely malnourished. Therewere acute shortages of fertilizer, food and foreign exchange, leading to theemergence of widespread black markets and malpractices. Total domestic savingswere negligible and despite liberal foreign aid, the level of development ex-penditure was meager. There was also considerable capital flight and smug-gling. National morale was very low and skilled personnel emigrated in largenumbers.
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4. The second phase began at the time of the standby agreement withthe International Monetary Fund in May 1975; this involved a number of eco-nomic stabilization measures. The Taka was devalued by 58 percent in termsof the pound sterling. A policy of credit restraint was adopted, while theprices of foodgrain sold through ration shops was raised. Subsidies on fer-tilizer were reduced, water charges for beneficiaries of some irrigationschemes were levied, and a tax on agricultural income was introduced. Thestandby agreement with the IMF was preceded by demonetization of Tk. 100notes, thereby reducing the money supply, especially "black money". Thepace of economic reform was accelerated with the changes in government whichoccurred in the second half of 1975. A new investment policy which was an-nounced gave a greater role to the private sector. The stock exchange wasreactivated, compensation was announced for properties that were nationalizedafter independence, tax incentives were given for private investors, a moreliberal policy for foreign investment was announced, and the Investment Cor-poration of Bangladesh was set up to help mobilize savings and facilitateprivate investment. A decision to disinvest small enterprises administeredby the Government was adopted. Various reforms were introduced to expeditethe process of approval of development projects and their implementation.A decision was made to issue guidelines on the decentralization of authorityto the industrial sector corporations, and from these corporations to enter-prises. Studies for management and administrative reform in key agenciessuch as the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation and the Ministryof Agriculture were also initiated. The role of the Government in internaland external trade was substantially reduced, particularly by reducing importallocations to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh and by allowing privatetraders a share of raw jute exports. Import procedures were also liberalized.
5. This period of economic policy reform, improvement in law and order,and the change in the political leadership of the country, coincided with goodweather. There was no major flood, drought or cyclone in 1975/76. There wasa moderate decline in the international prices of major commodities thatBangladesh imports (e.g. foodgrains, fertilizer and edible oil); at the sametime, external assistance was maintained at a high level.
6. In sum, an essentially sound albeit still limited short-term policyframework, and favorable weather, combined with some improvement in the termsof trade, assisted Bangladesh in its transition from a stage of relief andrehabilitation. The growth of GDP was 10 percent in 1975/76 and is expectedto be about 4 percent in 1976/77. Domestic production of foodgrains increased14 percent to a record level of 12.8 million tons in 1975/76, but is estimatedto be lower in 1976/77, due to adverse weather. As a consequence of thefavorable harvest of 1975/76, the problem of food scarcity gave way to pro-blems of scarce storage facilities and the danger of spoilage. Foodgrainprices declined by over 50 percent between January 1975 and 1976, to the pointat which low product prices for farmers became a cause for concern. The hy-perinflation of the post-independence years was replaced by a 20 percentprice decline between June 1975 and June 1976 and stabilization in 1976/77.The level of development expenditure in real terms rose by about 20 percent in1975/76. Domestic savings, which were negative by a large margin in 1974/75,appear to be positive by a small margin in 1976/77.
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7. Along with the more favorable domestic economic conditions, the
balance of payments position improved markedly in 1976/77. The currentaccount deficit declined to around $500 million from $900 million in 1975/76.
A sharp fall in the merchandise deficit was largely the result of a decline
in the volume of foodgrain imports (in the wake of the improved harvest of1975/76), along with reductions in the volume of imports of fertilizers (due
to a high level of stocks and larger domestic production), and smaller re-
ductions in imports of "miscellaneous" commodities. Declines in prices offoodstuffs and fertilizer, reinforced the effect on foreign exchange require-
ments of reduced import volumes. As a consequence of these developments,foreign exchange reserves were expected to increase by about $70 million toaround $285 million by June 1977.
8. For 1977/78 an increase of over $300 million is estimated forthe current account deficit, to a level of about $830 million. This would
reflect a rise in the merchandise import bill of some $340 million, the result
largely of increases in imports of foodgrains (partly to meet the Government'sobjective of one million tons of foodgrain reserves and to secure a foodgrainimport pipeline of 500,000 tons at the close of 1977/78), but also of fertil-
izer, cotton, capital goods and "miscellaneous" imports. The overall need forexternal capital disbursements for 1977/78 is estimated at $816 million. Therecommended commitment level, is $990 million, comprising $310 million of food,
$330 million of commodity and $350 million of project assistance. This volumeof commitments will be necessary if there is to be an adequate supply ofimports to sustain an accelerated development effort and to compensate for
a projected decline of 6% in the terms of trade.
Development Issues
9. The measures taken in 1975 and 1976 were essentially short-term, andwhile essential prerequisites, had little impact on the underlying structuralproblems of economic development in Bangladesh. A large population (about 83million) is growing rapidly (about 2.8 percent annually), in a small area(55,000 square miles), having meager natural resources and limited managerialand administrative capacities. The economic infrastructure is inadequate andthe country is prone to cyclones, floods and droughts. According to estimatesprepared by the Government, about 80 percent of the population live below the
poverty line. 1/ Eleven more million have been added to the nation's popula-tion since independence was achieved, the under- and unemployment rate con-tinues to be over 30 percent, the number of landless has increased (as a
result of population growth and successive natural disasters), and fragmenta-tion of the miniscule farm plots continues unabated. Nearly 60 percent ofthe people suffer from serious deficiencies in calorie intake and 80 percent
have vitamin deficiency. Annual per capita consumption of cloth is about 6yards. Housing in both urban and rural areas is poor, literacy is only 20
percent, infant mortality is 130 per thousand and life expectancy is 49 years
at birth. In the words of a recent Government document, "Nowhere in the worldis there anything like so much poverty shared by so many, squeezed into so
1/ The poverty line in Bangladesh is defined by the Government as aper capita annual income of $110 (at 1975 prices).
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little land area." 1/ While economic conditions have improved modestly in
the last two years, low productivity, which is at the root of the country'spoverty, remains the overwhelming problem.
10. The Government recognizes that if it is to achieve its primary
development objective, a major alleviation of poverty by the end of this
century, it must organize and implement a comprehensive development effort.
Part II of this report is devoted to a review of the planning and implementa-
tion aspects of a development strategy for Bangladesh, and a consideration of
several basic structural problems. These problems include population growth,
issues underlying low agricultural and industrial productivity, and the need
to sustain higher investment levels through an improved effort at mobilizing
domestic resources and expanding export earnings.
11. Central to any program to raise living standards in Bangladesh is
the need to check the rapid growth of population. In the brief period since
independence, the population has increased by some 11 million persons. The
Government attaches great importance to reducing the birth rate. The major
task is to provide effective delivery of family planning services for which
there is great demand, while continuing to motivate families to practice
birth control.
12. Increased agricultural productivity is the key to a sustained growth
in aggregate output, consumption and savings. Without it, there is little
prospect of reducing the poverty of the bulk of the people. On the basis of
known technology, there is considerable scope for increased productivity in
agriculture. The requisite package of inputs is now fairly well known although
rarely well delivered. Major changes in delivery systems, in the supply and
pricing of inputs and in the procurement and pricing of output will be neces-
sary to provide an opportunity to low income farmers to seize it.
13. Bangladesh must gradually reduce its dependence on external capital
(four-fifths of public development expenditure is now financed through exter-
nal savings), through programs to foster exports and industrial development on
which a successful export expansion depends. The task has several elements -
improved efficiency of the jute industry, further expansion of the minor and
non-traditional agriculture-based commodities already exported, and the de-
velopment of new industrial exports which take advantage of local resources.
There would appear to be considerable scope for development of labor-intensive,
manufactured products using local materials. This will require product devel-
opment and promotional efforts, financial incentives, and marketing know-how.In Bangladesh's circumstances, there would appear to be a strong case for es-
tablishing foreign linkages to secure not only finance, but also the needed
technical and entrepreneurial expertise as well as market outlets.
14. Increasing productivity in agriculture and industry requires in-
creased investment. To achieve this while reducing the dependence on external
1/ Government of Bangladesh, "Some Thoughts on a Development Perspective
for Bangladesh. A Case for Concerted International Effort (Dacca,November 1975).
capitai., domestic savings must rise. Mobilizing domestic savings posesprofound difficulties, in view of the abject poverty of the vast mass ofBangladeshis. The challenge is to develop the institutions and adopt thepolicies needed to expand private saving, to improve greatly the financialperformance of the public sector enterprises, and to further improve generalrevenue collections. Improvements in agricultural productivity deriving fromthe adoption of better production packages must be translated into nationalsavings through a reduction of input subsidies and by levying appropriatecharges on the incremental incomes of those who benefit from developmentinvestments.
15. Difficult and demanding requirements for development administrationare inherent in all these elements of an essential strategy for improvingthe Bangladesh economy and the living conditions of the people. For anumber of reasons, the present administrative capacities of the Governmentfall short of these requirements. Hence, a stronger administrative machineryfor the planning and execution of development programs must be an essentialelement of an effective Bangladesh effort to accelerate economic progress.This is well recognized by the present Government and its commitment todevelopment includes programs which have been started with the aim of asteady improvement in development administration during the next few years.The immediate objective is to have an improved planning and implementationsystem in place, and a Second Five-Year Development Plan prepared, by thebeginning of the 1980's.
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PART I: THE CURRENT SITUATION
CHAPTER 2
RECENT ECONOMIC TRENDS
Introduction
16. Partly as a result of the economic stabilization program begun in
mid-1975 and partly as a result of favorable weather conditions, the gross
domestic product in 1975/76 is estimated to have grown by 9.7 percent.
Largely as a result of good weather, there was a record harvest of 12.8 mil-
lion tons of foodgrains in 1975/76, an increase of about 14 percent. In
1976/77 GDP growth is estimated at about 4 percent. Principally due to adverse
weather conditions, foodgrain output is estimated to be 3 percent less than in
1975/76, the jute crop, while 7 percent greater than the crop of the previous
year, was below expectations. Total agricultural output is likely to increase
by about 1.5 percent in 1976/ 77, as compared with an increase of almost 10
percent in the previous year. Industrial output is expected to expand by about
7 percent -- a little above the growth achieved in 1975/76; a larger increase
would have been possible, but did not materialize because of slack consumer
demand. The services sector may grow by about 7 percent.
17. The Government has pursued monetary and fiscal policies consistent
with its objective of economic stabilization. Selective controls have as-
sured adequate credit for essential productive purposes and domestic and
external trade, while moderating consumer demand. Measures were taken in the
budget for 1976/77 to increase tax revenues by rationalizing import duties,
the introduction of some new taxes on agricultural income and the application
of water charges to farmers benefiting from selected irrigation projects.
Improved procedures for collection of revenue and reduction of tax evasion
are also expected to contribute to an increase in tax revenues. The volume
of current expenditures has been kept under control through measures such as
a reduction of fertilizer subsidies. The budget deficit is not likely to be
as large as projected because development expenditures will also be less than
projected.
18. The policies and measures adopted to maintain a balance between
the overall demand and supply of goods and services in 1976/77, contributed
to a stable price level for most of the year. There has been a tendency for
consumers to use up inventories which had been built up in the period of
inflation and uncertainty. This is one of the factors responsible for the
marked drop in the level of imports in 1976/77 from the projected $1,350
million to $937 million, despite a liberalization of import and exchange
control measures. Almost half of the decline has been due to a reduction
in food shipments to Bangladesh, but there has also been a decline in imports
of raw materials and spares and of other consumer goods. Since exports have
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increased, particularly non-jute exports (especially fish and shrimp), thelevel of international reserves has increased.
Agriculture
19. Table 1 summarizes foodgrain production in recent years. While theofficial estimate for 1975/76 is 12.8 million tons, the very low price levelssuggest that the crop may have been larger. For the current year, the Govern-ment estimates production at 12.4 million tons.
Table 1: FOODGRAIN PRODUCTION(million long tons)
1969/70 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
Aus rice 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.0Aman rice 7.0 6.7 6.0 7.1 6.9Boro rice 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3
Total rice 11.8 11.7 11.1 12.6 12.2
Wheat .1 .1 .1 .2 .2
Total Production 11.9 11.8 11.2 12.8 12.4
Net Available /a 10.7 10.6 10.1 11.5 11.2
/a Production less 10 percent for feed, seed and waste.
Source: Planning Commission and Ministry of Agriculture.
20. The bumper harvest of foodgrain in 1975/76 and the decrease in smug-gling and hoarding, led to a big drop in the price of foodgrains. In the yearending March 1977, the price had declined by 50 percent. Through most of 1976/77, the farm price of paddy was at around Tk. 50-60, per maund, generally belowthe official procurement price of Tk. 74 per maund, and prices as low as Tk. 40-50 per maund were reached in some areas. Such very low prices may well havediscouraged farmers from making the investments in fertilizer, seeds, pesti-cides and other inputs that are needed in connection with the use of the newhigh yielding varieties and may have constrained the renting of pumps or otherforms of irrigation equipment for the boro season.
21. In 1975/76, imports of foodgrains were 1.5 million tons, but mayapproximate 700,000 tons this year. The very low prices of foodgrains withinthe country during the first half of 1976/77, in some cases even below thesubsidized ration price, led to a less than average offtake from the rationsystem, up to February, 1977. The exceptionally bad weather which affectedthe boro crop and expectations about a sharp fall in the forthcoming aus crop,have led to an increase in rice prices and an upturn in the offtake. However,total offtake for the year may not exceed 1.4 million tons.
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22. Domestic procurement supplies locally produced foodgrains for theration system. It should also act as a price support in times of low domesticprices. In 1975/76, the Government achieved a record procurement of 415,000tons of foodgrain, but even this level was not sufficient to raise marketprices for paddy and rice to the procurement price level of Taka 74/maund andTaka 120/maund, respectively. The target volume of procurement for 1976/77was set at 500,000 tons, but was later revised to 400,000 tons, because theGovernment decided to encourage the private sector to purchase and stockfoodgrain, by relaxing the anti-hoarding laws and making credit available toprivate traders. Private traders may, therefore, have helped to keep pricesfrom falling, and reduced the pressure on Government-owned storage capacity.At the beginning of 1976/77, government foodgrain stocks amounted to over800,000 tons, facilitated by an improvement in the storage situation in1976/77. The Government is now building 150,000 tons of new storage andrehabilitating another 100,000 tons. External assistance is also being pro-vided to improve storage management and pest control procedures and to reducespoilage.
23. The production of raw jute is estimated to have increased by 7 per-cent from 4.4 million bales in 1975/76 to about 4.7 million bales in 1976/77,despite unfavorable weather conditions. Demand for raw jute improved consider-ably as a result of a resumption of activity in industrialized countries and afall in the supply of kenaf from Thailand. The Government also decided toallow private traders to enter the jute export trade. As a result of thesestimuli the market price of raw jute rose steadily from about Taka 93/maundin July 1976 to Taka 130/maund in March 1977. Exports are expected to be about2.2 million bales. The export experience of raw jute in 1976/77 is discussedin greater detail in Chapter 3.
Industry
24. The industrial sector, although accounting for only 8 percent ofGDP, is an important element in the Bangladesh economy. It produces basicconsumer goods, provides agriculture with key inputs, accounts for about60 percent of export earnings and employs some two million workers. Bangla-desh's industrial structure has changed little since independence. Large andmedium scale enterprises, concentrated in jute, cotton textile, paper, steel,sugar refining and engineering, represent about 65 percent of the total valueadded in industry. Handloom weaving and food processing units constitute amajor portion of the small scale and cottage sectors. After independence,the ownership and management of "abandoned" units were transferred to theGovernment. In addition, all jute, cotton textile and sugar mills were na-tionalized. At present the public sector comprises about 400 units, includingmost large and medium scale enterprises, with about 300,000 workers, organizedunder several public sector corporations. The Government has recently decidedto disinvest about 150 of these units.
25. A large number of industrial units in Bangladesh originally had beenestablished to supply the two wings which comprised Pakistan. The separation
of these markets after independence substantially reduced capacity utilization.This has been compounded by a shortage of foreign exchange to purchase rawmaterials and spares, inexperienced management and frequent labor unrest, es-pecially in the years immediately succeeding independence. As a result, theoverall index of industrial production has yet to reach the 1969/70 level, thepeak reached before independence, and capacity utilization remains at lowlevels, perhaps less than 50 percent in most industries. After achieving 94percent of the 1969/70 level in 1973/74, total industrial production declinedby 4-5 percent in the following two years, largely in response to a slackeningof consumer demand. Industrial production subsequently benefited from therevival in the international economy, the devaluation of the Taka in 1975, arelaxation of import controls, and an increase in the range of export incen-tives for non-jute products. The principal constraints on a more rapid expan-sion were slow growth in domestic demand and insufficient supply of inputs,especially of agricultural products.
26. Production of jute manufactures in 1976/77 is expected to reachabout 480,000 tons, about the same as in 1975/76, but about 8 percent higherthan in the pre-devaluation year of 1974/75. Foreign demand for jute manu-factures continued to improve in 1976/77, but, at the same time, the jutemanufacturing industry continued to experience the twin problems of rapidlyrising input costs and the need to maintain export prices at levels competi-tive with other exporters, and synthetic substitutes. Consequently, it con-tinued to experience losses, which in 1976/77, may reach an all time high ofTaka 450 million.
27. Other export industries, especially tea, leather and shrimp process-ing benefited from the exchange adjustment of 1975, and the subsequent de factodepreciation of the Taka. The liberal incentives provided through improvementsin the export licensing scheme (in the form of entitlements to import) alsohelped. Consequently, there was a substantial expansion in export volume andvalue. The performance of the external sector is discussed in greater detailin Chapter 3.
Table 2: PRODUCTION IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES
Units 1969/70 1974/75 1975/76 1975/76 1976/77(July-December)
Jute Manufactures thousand tons 560 444 478 235 239Cotton Yarn million lbs. 106 101 91 45 46Newsprint thousand tons 36 29 20 13 8Cement " 53 143 160 66 142Steel Ingots " 54 76 90 58 47Fertilizer " 101 100 337 176 192Sugar " 93 98 86 27 40Tea million lbs. 67 66 68 51 52Edible Oil " 19 15 19 8 11
Source: Table 8.1 of Statistical Appendix.
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28. In the case of industries solely oriented to domestic markets, theperformance in 1976/77 was not as satisfactory as in the previous year. First,because of the devaluation of May 1975, and the subsequent de facto deprecia-tion of the Taka (as a result of the link with the Pound Sterling), stocks ofraw materials were replenished at higher prices, which were reflected in thecost of finished goods only after a time lag in 1976/77. Second, the effectivecost of imports was increased, since customs duties are levied on an ad valorembasis. This had a dampening effect on domestic demand and the incentive toimport. The cotton textile industry in particular, suffered from the squeeze,resulting from rising costs of imported cotton and unchanged wholesale prices.Sales of finished textiles were also hampered by the general slowdown in in-ternal demand. The output of sugar, in 1976/77, is expected to reach a recordlevel of about 120,000 tons. Production of cement accelerated as a result ofan expansion in residential construction, and added protection from competingimports. The refining of petroleum products also showed improvement. Thepaper and board industry, however, continued to experience difficulty, be-cause of inadequate quality and high costs, which adversely affected salesin domestic and foreign markets.
29. Given the need to conserve its administrative and technical skills,the Government has been hard pressed in its task of managing a large segmentof Bangladesh industry. In part recognition of this problem, it has takena number of steps to improve the climate for private investment: (i) it hasraised the ceiling on private investment from Tk. 30 million to Tk. 100 mil-lion, (ii) agreed to pay compensation to the former owners of nationalizedenterprises, and (iii) permitted private equity participation and managementcontracts in several important sectors, such as paper, cement, oil and gas.
Public Finance
30. The budget for 1976/77 was oriented towards two objectives: acontinuation of monetary stability and a rationalization of the structureof taxation. It was announced that there would be no recourse to expansionaryfinance, and a number of direct and indirect taxes were simplified, and ano-malies removed. Total revenue was expected to increase by about 11 percentover the previous year. Several new taxes were introduced:
(i) The taxes on urban non-agricultural land and agriculturalland were consolidated in a Land Development Tax. Urbannon-agricultural land in the cities of Dacca, Narayanganj,Chittagong and Khulna are to be assessed at generallyhigher rates than other urban areas. Commercial andindustrial land pay higher rates than residential land.Agricultural land holdings in excess of 25 bighas 1/ areto be assessed at Taka 5 per bigha, while holdings below25 bighas would not pay tax.
1/ A bigha equals one third of an acre.
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(ii) Agricultural income above Tk 3,600 is to be taxed, sub-ject to an exemption of 60 percent of such income, incases where no books of account are maintained. Agri-cultural income would be aggregated with income fromother sources for assessment of tax. Since other incomeup to a level of Tk. 9,000 is exempt from taxation, onlyagricultural income contributing to total income in ex-cess of Taka 12,600 will, therefore, be subject to tax.These tax measures represent a good start in tapping thetax potential. Initially at least, an improvement oftax effort would require a further reduction in thelevel of tax exemption.
31. Two major measures were instituted with respect to agriculturalinputs. First, a water charge equivalent to 3 percent of the increase ingross income accruing to beneficiaries of the Ganges-Kobadak, North BengalDeep Tubewell, and Dacca-Narayanganj-Demra Projects, was introduced. Second,the price of fertilizer distributed by the Government was increased by 20percent.
32. An assessment of budget performance in April 1977, suggests thatseveral and possibly all of the fiscal goals would be achieved in 1976/77.Despite a fall of about 10 percent in collections from customs duties, totalrevenue collection is expected to be on target. This is due primarily toimproved tax administration, aimed at recovery of income tax arrears, andintensified efforts with respect to the collection of other taxes. Collec-tions from the land tax and excise taxes were on target, while collectionsfrom income and sales taxes appeared to have exceeded expectations by 10percent in each case. The marked drop in the losses on food trading account(due to lower than anticipated procurement of foodgrain), also contributed to'the favorable budget outlook for 1976/77. Current expenditure exceeded thetarget marginally; however, there was a significant shortfall in developmentexpenditure, as compared with original budget estimates. According to Govern-ment estimates in March, development expenditure was expected to be aboutTk. 10 billion (as compared with the budget projection of Tk. 11.4 billion).
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Table 3: GOVERNMENT FINANCES(Taka million)
1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77Revised Revised Revised BudgetEstimate Estimate Estimate Estimate
Revenue Budget -486 1,182 1,989 2,144
Receipts 3,939 6,837 8,826 9,823
Expenditures -4,425 -5,655 -6,837 -7,679
Development Expenditure -3,050 -3,932 -8,500 -11,404
Overall Deficit -3,536 -2,750 -6,511 -9,260
Financing
Domestic Capital Receipts 60 -1,256 -778 107
Foreign Aid 2,980 3,010 6,290 9,153
Domestic Borrowing 496 996 999 --
Tax Revenue as % of GDP 4.9 6.6 8.5 8.8
Source: Ministry of Finance.
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CHAPTER 3
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND AID REQUIREMENTS
Balance of Payments, 1976/77
33. The impact of the extremely good foodgrain harvests and the stabili-zation policies instituted in 1975/76, were reflected in Bangladesh's 1976/77balance of payments (Table 4). The restrictive monetary and fiscal policiesof 1975/76 were continued in 1976/77, and they continued to depress demand.This, plus reduced requirements for food imports and lower import pricesreduced the value of total imports by 27 percent. Export earnings showed anincrease of 5 percent. Exports benefited from a favorable climate for non-traditional exports, which, in addition, were stimulated by a package ofincentives. New items were added to the list of export products eligible forexport performance licences, the income tax rebate on earnings derived fromnon-traditional exports was doubled, exporters were qualified for preferentialcredit and interest rates, and priority was accorded them in the issuance ofimport licenses for the purchase of raw material and machinery. These incen-tives are expected to contribute substantially to a projected large expansion(36 percent) in the value of non-jute exports. Consequently the trade deficitis expected to decline from $909 million in 1975/76 to $537 million. Thecurrent account deficit in the balance of payments is expected to total $512million. However, since external aid disbursements in 1976/77 are expectedto reach $572 million (inclusive of a cash grant of $50 million), Bangladesh'sinternational reserves are expected to rise by $72 million to $285 million atthe end of June, 1977. This would be equivalent in value to about three monthsanticipated imports in 1977/78.
Exports
34. Export earnings totalling about $400 million are expected to be 5percent higher than in 1975/76 (Table 5). The increase is due to an ex-pansion of non-jute exports. Helped by a rise in coffee prices in interna-tional markets, both the volume and price of Bangladesh's tea exports in-creased and export value rose to about $33 million (nearly double the levelof last year's exports). The demand for other products, including fish andshrimps and miscellaneous goods, was also buoyant and despite some supplyconstraints (as in leather), such exports are expected to be higher by about$13 million. As a result of an improvement in economic activity in indus-trialized countries as well as a decline in exports of kenaf from Thailand,the international demand for raw jute expanded substantially in 1976/77. Rawjute exports of 2.2 million bales are expected to earn $114 million. Thevalue of jute goods exports is expected to decline marginally to $180 million,since a reduction of 6 percent in average price has not been compensated by anincrease in volume. Total earnings from jute exports are, therefore, expectedto decline by $9 million to $294 million (or by 3 percent), as compared with1975/76.
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Table 4: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS(million US$)
1975/76 1976/77 1977/78(Actual) (Estimate) (Projection)
Merchandise Imports (c.i.f.) -1290/a -937 -1274Merchandise Exports (f.o.b.) 381 400 425
Trade Balance -909 -537 -849Other Current Account 1 25 15
Current Account Balance -908 -512 -834Other Receipts and Payments (net) 122 46 50Amortization: Long-term debt )
) -78 -21/b -13Short term capital movements (net) ) -13/c -51
(including IMF)Changes in Reserves (-=increase) 50 -72 -32External Capital Disbursements 814 572 816
of which:Food 307 128 286Commodity 378 220 300Project 129 174 230Cash - 50 -
/a Includes an estimated settlement of $24 million of outstanding letters of
credit carried over from 1974/75./b Including repayment of $6 million on USSR Wheat Account./c Including refund of a deposit of $21 million made by the Kuwait Central
Bank.
Source: Planning Commission and IBRD.
Imports
35. Imports valued at $937 million are expected to be lower by about$330 million compared with the previous year (Table 6). Food imports are ex-pected to be about 0.7 million tons as against 1.5 million tons in 1975/76and the unit price is expected to be about 30 percent less. This accountsfor a reduction of about $240 million (about three fourths of the total declinein imports). Imports of edible oil and oil seeds are expected to decline by$39 million to $24 million, largely due to a fall in demand and a high levelof stocks. As a result of high stocks at the beginning of the year and in-creased domestic production, fertilizer imports are expected to decline from$88 million in 1975/76 to $9 million in 1976/77. The recent cessation ofproduction at Ghorasal is, however, likely to affect demand for fertilizerimports in 1977/78. There has also been a reduction of $46 million (14percent) in imports of miscellaneous consumer goods and raw materials, re-flecting a temporary abatement in demand. Capital goods imports are likelyto rise by $55 million (26%). Imports of petroleum and petroleum productsmay increase by $18 million (14 percent) due to a rise in price as well asvolume.
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36. As against new aid commitments of $849 million, aid disbursementsare likely to be about $522 million, consisting of $128 million of foodaid, $220 million of commodity aid and $174 million of project aid. In addi-tion, a cash grant of $50 million has been received from Saudi Arabia. Theaid pipeline at the end of 1976/77 is likely to be about $1,652 million(Table 7).
Economic Prospects and the Balance of Payments, 1977/78
37. The economic outlook for Bangladesh in 1977/78 will depend verysubstantially on the performance of the agricultural sector. Favorableweather conditions and the availability of agricultural inputs would deter-mine the extent to which the output targets for foodgrains (13.2 milliontons), and raw jute (5.0-5.5 million bales), are realized. Industrialoutput is likely to maintain its momentum. The government has indicatedits intention to continue prudent monetary and fiscal policies, and it istherefore expected that price increases will be kept within manageablelimits. The terms of trade may show a decline of 6 percent in 1977/78.While export prices are not expected to change markedly as compared with1976/77, import prices for a few key commodities are likely to rise. It ishoped that almost all foodgrain requirements in 1977/78 could be obtainedthrough foreign aid, so that Bangladesh's scarce foreign exchange resourcesdo not have to be utilized for purchases of foodgrains. Other commoditieswhich are likely to show cost increases are petroleum (18 percent), crudepetroleum (10 percent), fertilizer (30 percent) and cement (11 percent).No large development projects are expected to come on stream in 1977/78, butit is expected that as a result of improved policy planning, the rate ofimplementation of projects on stream would show significant improvement.
38. The improvement in international demand for raw jute in 1976/77,led to a substantial increase in the domestic price of raw jute and conse-quently in the jute/rice price ratio. It is therefore expected that thearea under jute and the volume of production would increase substantially in1977/78 and that, despite a lower opening stock, exports would rise. Exportreceipts from raw jute are expected to increase by about $11 million to $125million. The volume of jute goods exports is expected to increase marginally,and the average price may rise by about 2 percent, leading to an increase ofabout $6 million in earnings to $186 million. The high level of tea exportsin 1976/77 depleted stocks and since production of tea cannot be expandedrapidly in the short run, the quantity of exports in 1977/78 is expected tobe 65 million lbs. and export earnings about $33 million. Non-traditionalexports should continue to benefit from a substantial array of export incen-tives, and are expected to increase in value by 11 percent to about $81 mil-lion in 1977/78. Total exports are therefore projected at $425 million --about $25 million (6 percent) higher than in 1976/77.
TABLE 5: MERCHANDISE EXPORTS-(million US$)
1975/76 1976/77 1977/78
(AcLuals) -(Estimates) (Projections)
Unit Unit UnitPrice Price Price
Commodities Unit Quantity (US$) Value Quantity (US$) Value Quantity (US$) Value
Raw Jute Mtn Bales 2.4 52 121 2.2 52 1.14 2.5 5n 125
Jute Goods Mn Tons .437 416 182 .460 392 180 0.465 400 186
Tea -- 49 .4 18 65 .5 33 65 .5 33
Leather - -- 31 -- -- 30 -- -- 30
Fish & Shrimp - -- 12 - _ __ 15 __ 16
Others -- -- 17 -- -- 28 - 35
Total 381 400 425
/a On the basis of export shipment.
Source: Bangladesh Planning Commission and IBRD.
TABLF 6:: MERCHANDISE IMPORTS
Unit Price Value-/Commodity/Category Unit =atity (T191 7I 1 in," I1TQ$) 1975/76 1976/7 1977178 1975/6 1976/77 1977j78 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78
Foodgrains Mn Tons 1.47 0.71 1.56 249 179 183 366 127 286
Rice Mn Tons (0.40) (0.12) (0.27) (406) (300) (300) (162) (36) (80)
Wheat Mn Tons (1.07) (0.59) (1.29) (190) (154) (160) (204) (91) (206)
Edible Oil Th Tons 61.10 40.94 40.00 678 550 550 41 22 22
Oil Seeds Th Tons 71.90 8.24 30.00 300 280 280 22 2 8
Petroleum Products Th Tons 404.30 341.00 350.00 126 121 143 51 41 50
Crude Petroleum Th Tons 842.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 89 103 113 75 103 113
Cotton Th Bales 182.80 163.70 300.00 244 350 340 45 57 102
Cotton Yarn Th Bales 2.80 2.00 2.70 1,000 1,200 1,200 3 2 3
Textiles -- -- -- -- -- 16 6 10
Fertilizer Th Tons 358.20 70.00 253.00 246 128 167 88 9 42Cement Th Tons 221.80 240.20 250.00 47 45 50 11 11 13Capital Goods -- -- -- -- -- -- 213 268 300
Others -- -- 335 289 325Total
1266 937 1274
Note - Figures are approximate due to rounding.
/a The value of merchandise imports in 1975/76 differs from the total in Table 4 as the latterincludes payments on account of outstanding letters of credit for 1974/75.
Source: Planning Commission and IBRD.
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39. The volume of foodgrain imports fluctuates inversely with domesticfoodgrain output. The latter has fluctuated in recent years by as much as700,000 tons. When there is a crop failure, food has to be mobilized rapidlyto stave off disaster. The principal means of dealing with these uncertain-ties is to have adequate food stocks in the country to meet emergencies. Asa second line of defense, it is desirable to have a pipeline of food aid ofat least half a million tons at the beginning of the disaster-prone months ofSeptember to October. It is also desirable to review the food situation inDecember, when the size of the main Aman crop becomes known, and to plan ship-ments for the second half of the fiscal year in the light of this review.
40. The food import estimates given here, are based on an analysis oflikely stock requirements. On the basis of present estimates, foodgrainstocks in the public distribution system will be about 0.4 million tons atthe end of 1976/77. The Government considers 1 million tons stock necessaryfor transaction and contingency needs. Given the variability of crops, thelong supply time, the imperfect domestic distribution system and the over-whelming importance of adequate supplies of foodgrains, such a stock levelindeed seems to be the minimum prudent level for the present. Given thatobjective, the opening stock, plus an assumed 1.5 million tons of offtake(including Food for Work), and domestic procurement of 0.5 million tons,yield import requirements for 1977/78 of about 1.6 million tons (valued atabout $286 million).
41. Imports of petroleum products and crude petroleum in 1977/78 areestimated to be $163 million, about $19 million more than in 1976/77, largelydue to higher prices. Imports of fertilizer would be about 253,000 tons($42 million) on the basis of an expansion in the fertilizer offtake andlower domestic production. Capital goods imports are expected to rise byabout 12 percent to $300 million. For other miscellaneous imports, arrivalswill largely depend on import licenses issued in the second half of 1976/77and the first half of 1977/78. Stocks of raw cotton and cotton yarn havedeclined substantially in 1976/77, and some rebuilding will occur in 1977/78.Therefore, import values for these items are expected to rise to $105 million.The Government has expressed its intention to stimulate economic activity in1977/78 and to liberalize imports still further. Reforms undertaken withrespect to the streamlining of import procedures, and a revival of demandassociated with an acceleration of development expenditures should lead tosome increases in other categories. Total merchandise imports, are therefore,expected to be $1,274 million, which in nominal terms is about the same as in1975/76. The terms of trade are expected to deteriorate by about 6 percentin 1977/78.
42. The projected export and import levels would yield a trade deficitof about $850 million. A surplus of approximately $65 million is projectedfor other current receipts and payments and a $64 million deficit on capitalaccount. The use of international reserves may amount to $32 million. Thiswould leave a gap of $816 million to be financed from foreign assistance.
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Aid Requirements
43. At the beginning of 1977/78, Bangladesh would have a pipeline ofaid totalling $1,652 million, consisting of $66 million of food, $393 mil-
lion of commodities and $1,193 million of project aid. Approximately 40%of the beginning aid pipeline is normally disbursed during the course of theyear. While this is a reasonable pattern, it is made possible by the veryhigh proportion of food and commodity aid.
44. Food. Given an estimated opening foodgrain stock of 400,000 tons,a food aid pipeline of 360,000 tons and an estimated procurement of 500,000tons from domestic sources, preliminary availabilities for the Government'sdistribution system would be about 1.3 million tons. The offtake require-ments are estimated at 1.5 million tons and together with a desired end yearstock of 1.0 million tons, make a total requirement of 2.5 million tons.This leaves a disbursement gap of 1.2 million tons, but no pipeline at thebeginning of 1978/79. An import pipeline of no less than 500,000 tons isdesirable at the beginning of 1978/79 as a cushion against contingencies.This would be equivalent to about 4 months average offtake. Hence, theBank recommends that new commitments of food aid amount to 1.7 million tons(about $310 million), in 1977/78.
45. Commodities. The commodity aid pipeline at the beginning of 1977/78is estimated at $393 million, and disbursements during the year at $300 mil-lion. Required commitments of commodity aid are estimated at $330 million.This would conform to a more normal disbursement pattern for commodity as-sistance - i.e. disbursements over 2-3 years - allow for the import impact ofan accelerated development program and restore the depleted pipeline for thistype of assistance which will facilitate import programming for 1978/79.
46. Projects. The pipeline of project aid is expected to be about$1.2 billion at the beginning of 1977/78. The rate of disbursement is ex-pected to increase by 32 percent to $230 million in 1977/78, as a resultof recent improvements in the procedures for disbursing project aid and foraccelerating the implementation of projects. If achieved, the disbursementlevel would be an appropriate share of the opening pipeline of project aid.To provide for an accelerated pace of project preparation, a commitment levelof about $100 million above the disbursement level is recommended, or projectaid commitments in 1977/78 of about $350 million.
47. Table 7 summarizes the above discussion. The required level of com-mitments for 1977/78 would amount to $990 million, comprising $310 million offood, $330 million of commodities and $350 million of project aid. Disburse-
ments are projected to be $286 million for food, $300 million for commoditiesand $230 million for projects, totalling $816 million. This leaves a closingpipeline of $1,826 million.
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Table 7: AID COMMITMENTS AND DISBURSEMENTS, 1976/77 AND 1977/78(million US$)
Food Commodity Prolect Total
1976/77 (Estimates) /a1. Opening Pipeline (July 1, 1976) 61 279 985 1,3252. New Commitments 133 334 382 849
3. Total Available 194 613 1,367 2,1744. Disbursements 128 220 174 522
1977/78 (Pro-jection)5. Opening Pipeline (July 1, 1977) 66 393 1,193 1,6526. New Commitments 310 330 350 990
7. Total Available 376 723 1,543 2,6428. Disbursements 286 300 230 8169. Closing Pipeline 90 423 1,313 1,826
/a Excludes $50 million cash assistance.
Source: Planning Commission and IBRD.
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PART II - DEVELOPMENT POLICY ISSUES
CHAPTER 4
DEVELOPMENT ISSUES AND ADMINISTRATION
Development Issues
48. The future of the Bangladesh economy with its presently glaringresource imbalance, and its large population (83 million) growing rapidlyby about 2.3 million a year, is of major concern in international development.Yet there are reasons to believe that the potential for progress toward al-leviating the abysmal poverty of the population, given time, unflaggingsupport from the international community, and feasible improvements ineconomic management, is greater than present conditions would suggest.
49. The nature of the Bangladesh economic problem and requirementsfor satisfactory development have been set forth by the Government in its"Perspective Paper" of November 1976 and by General Ziaur Rahman in a speechof last December. In a long ranging view to the end of the century, theGoverment set its sights on average annual rates of increase over the periodat 4.5 percent for the national product, 1.5 percent (half the present rate)for population growth, and a consequent rise in per-capita income by 3 percent.The growth of the national product would be made up of 3.5 percent for agri-culture and 6 percent for the rest of the economy. Were these rates to beachieved, it would be possible with appropriate adjustments in income dis-tribution to reduce the proportion of the population below the poverty line,from 80 percent at present, to 20 percent by the year 2000, according to theGovernment's calculations.
50. This, of course, was not meant to be a planned program of specificstrategies and measures to meet development objectives. Rather it is adescription of how a particular set of achievements could meet the objectiveof poverty alleviation. However, although this scenario envisages more rapidprogress than has been achieved in'recent years, it is only the populationparameter which seems unduly ambitious on the basis of experience elsewhere.Population control remains an area of vast uncertainty about causal influ-ences and one in which, hopefully, the kind of breakthrough envisaged in theBangladesh population perspective is not inconceivable.
51. Broadly, progress in four areas seem vital if these long-termobjectives are to be achieved. First, there must be a development strategywith realistic targets which can be achieved in the medium and longer term,a clear set of priorities, and a consistent resource allocation pattern. Thiswill require an administration which is capable of both creating and executingthe strategic development design.
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52. The strategy for development of Bangladesh is conceptually probablyless difficult than the administrative means for its execution. Elements of astrategy focused on the key problems and potentials of the Bangladesh economyare discussed in subsequent chapters. The more important elements may here bementioned briefly. Perhaps of foremost importance is population control; therapid growth of population has already forced excessive settlement in areasof low productivity and high risk, and any promise for the future will befrustrated unless there is a sharp and early curb on fertility. This isdiscussed in Chapter 5.
53. The second point of strategic emphasis, because of its large poten-tial both for supplying food requirements and providing a broad distributionof benefits, is the productivity of the Bangladesh farmer. It is noted inChapter 6 that farm yields are far below what the environment and the techno-logy would allow, and that there are remedies of established effectivenessconsisting broadly of adequate incentives, input availability, and programsof rural development reaching large numbers of the very small farms thatcharacterize the Bangladesh countryside. These are, of course remedies thatare more easily stated than realized, but they are feasible in the Bangladeshcontext, with the necessary administrative capability, as subsequently dis-cussed.
54. A third focus of strategy for the future economic viability ofBangladesh must be on exports and on the agricultural and industrial devel-opment which seems essential to export expansion. This problem, discussed inChapter 7B, is in three parts. The first is to improve the efficiency of theailing jute industry which (including raw jute) contributes three-quarters ofexports at present. The second is to expand the group of labor-intensive,local-material-using industries (tea, fish, leather, sugar, paper, spices,fruits and vegetables and a few handicrafts) which now account for the otherquarter of exports. The present export list seems unlikely, however, topromise enough expansion to reach a more manageable trade balance. Hence athird element--the promotion of new industrial export products--seems essen-tial to a successful export strategy. With the scope in Bangladesh for fur-ther labor-intensive industrial development, this should be feasible, followingexamples elsewhere, given the necessary package of promotional policies, suchas provision of attractive financial incentives and a favorable managementenvironment, assurance of raw materials, encouragement and support of aggres-sive merchandising programs, and foreign linkages through foreign investmentparticipation, or otherwise, for technological and managerial support, andfor market outlets overseas. This export emphasis of industrial develop-ment need not, obviously, mean any neglect of manufacture for the domesticmarket. Both are interrelated and mutually supporting. The success of anindustrial export strategy will depend in large measure on complementaryexpansion and increasing efficiency of industrial production for the domesticmarket. In this respect, it is important for the export strategy to resistpolicies vis-a-vis domestic industry which foster inefficiency through highprotection or curb incentives through excessive price and other regulations.
55. The fourth area of emphasis, discussed in Chapter 7A, must beon a greater mobilization of domestic resources. One channel for this isthe public revenue system. In this respect, recent performance, through
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increased taxation and improved tax administration, has been impressivewith revenues rising from about 5% of GDP to over 11% at present. The levelreached, however, is still low by international comparisons, or in relation todevelopment requirements. External financing continues to meet about 80% ofpublic development expenditure. Poor as Bangladesh is, there are limits towhat can be expected in public and private saving expansion, beyond the rateof growth of the economy. However, some margin beyond this rate should bepossible, through the considerable scope that exists for a variety of pre-scriptions for increased taxation, improved tax administration, higher chargesfor public services, and incentives for saving. It is also important in theBangladesh circumstances to avoid any incentive in the exchange rate policyfor leakage of resources abroad. Of particular importance, is the steadyreduction of the presently very large subsidies to public enterprises whichdraw heavily on public resources.
56. These elements of a development strategy--population control, higherfarm productivity, export promotion, and resource expansion--are far from theonly requirements for improvement of the Bangladesh economy, but they arecertainly among the most important. Although short, as a list of prioritiesfor strategic focus, they nevertheless constitute a formidable administrativechallenge and will obviously impose demands on the development administrationwhich are heavy indeed. Thus, an obvious corollary of the development strategywill have to be an improvement of the administration.
57. These domestic efforts must be supplemented by continued supportfrom aid donors. As Bangladesh moves towards greater productivity, bettereconomic balance and improved living conditions, it will improve its capacityto absorb external capital and to use it well. Increased external supportwould then be well justified.
Development Administration
58. Deficient development administration is hardly unusual in a develop-ing country, but it is a particular constraint in Bangladesh for a number ofreasons. One reason is, of course the very brief history of Bangladesh as anindependent nation. This brought with it a period of turmoil with frequentchanges in objectives, and a whole new set of administrative arrangements fora new central government. Another reason is that Bangladesh, on several occa-sions in recent history, has lost many of its managers and administrators.A further element is the impact on administrative morale of the sheer diffi-culty of development in Bangladesh-- e.g., the physical difficulties of com-munication; the unpredictable and destructive forces of nature which werecompounded by the political uncertainties and unclear development directivesof the early post-independence period. It is only quite recently that therehas emerged the kind of political stability and high-level political preoc-cupation with development which are so necessary for the morale and effective-ness of the development administration.
59. Against this background, the limitations of development administra-tion in Bangladesh are understandable and, for the time being, they must betaken into account in any realistic prescription for development. To
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strengthen development administration requires, firstly, political and organi-
zational conditions favorable to morale and effectiveness, and secondly, aphased program for strengthening the administration through recruitment and
training, according to an order of development priorities. Thirdly, it would
seem essential that the design of development policies and programs take ac-count of development administration as one of Bangladesh's scarcest resources,
to be conserved by the choice of development options which are less demanding
on the administration, wherever economically feasible, and politically accept-
able.
60. A favorable administrative environment for development, dependsgreatly on the importance which is attached, at the highest political level,
to development and the achievement of development objectives. Here the
essentials, which were not evident in the early post-independence period,
include clarity of objectives, a willingness to delegate, a consensus onthe means and responsibilities for pursuit of the objectives, consistent
political backing for those responsible for implementation, and answerability
for performance from those responsible.
61. The present Government has indicated a high-level political commit-
ment to development. Its problem is to strengthen the administrative machine
so that it can convert this commitment into a realistic action program and
then carry it out. This process has begun. It has two parts. The first has
been an immediate effort to quicken the pace and smooth the operation ofdevelopment administration in the short run. The second is for the medium
and longer term, and consists of bolstering the administration to provide
continuing planning guidance, including a Second Development Plan for theearly 1980's, and the preparation and execution of the programs and projects
in the Plan.
62. The initial steps already taken have included:
1. A high-level Implementation Coordination Committeesupported by a Project Implementation Bureau to expeditethe approval, implementation and supervision of developmentprojects, including authority to reconcile inter-ministerialdisputes and delays arising out of overlapping jurisdictions;
and
2. changes in project procedures to speed up the release oflocal funds, the approval of projects, initiation ofcontracts and conclusion of agreements with consultants.
63. These steps have had some positive consequences, but on the wholethe results are as yet unimpressive. In fact, the recent pace of development
expenditure, particularly in foreign-aided projects, has slowed down ratherthan accelerated. The Project Implementation Bureau is still grossly under-
staffed in relation to its responsibilities. This remains true also of the
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Planning Commission in its project review functions. Revision of rules andregulations to expedite project implementation and reporting have had, atleast temporarily, the effect of delay, as project officers learned the newsystems. All this suggests the short-run dilemma that changes in procedures,supervision units and reporting processes intended to expedite action, maydelay it. What has been done should have positive consequences, but it willtake time.
64. Meanwhile, there is active preoccupation with improvements indevelopment administration in the longer run. The needs here are for aclarification of development objectives and priorities, realistic assessmentand allocation of development resources, improved capacity of the developmentagencies to design sectoral investment programs and to prepare and executeinvestment projects, and a system for monitoring the development process andfor revisions, as necessary. Initial action is to be centered on the PlanningCommission, the centers of planning and project responsibilities in the Minis-tries and other agencies of development, and those agencies which advise theNational Economic Council (the Cabinet) in its decisions on development, andwhich assist the Council in monitoring and expediting the development process.The staff of the Planning Commission is to be strengthened through recruitmentand training programs. Similar efforts are underway in the Ministries forwhich planning cells have been authorized for leadership in sectoral andproject programming. In support of these efforts, foreign technical assist-ance is planned. Expectations are that with these measures to improve thedevelopment administration, it will be possible by 1980/81 to have a SecondFive-Year Development Plan with realistic resource and sectoral and projectcontent, for the period ending in 1985/86.
65. There are a number of other recent actions directed toward adminis-trative improvement. Regular recruitment has recommenced, which will be ofparticular importance in remedying the hiatus in the civil service at thejunior levels. The pay structure is being reviewed after some years of steadydecline in the real value of government pay scales. There is also a recentincreased emphasis on civil service training and improvement of traininginstitutions with help from the British Overseas Development Ministry. Theseare all important developments to meet one of the strategic requirements forBangladesh development. It would seem unrealistic, however, to expect thatBangladesh will have a smooth-running machine for development administrationwithin a few years time. Even with the present political emphasis on improve-ment, there are great difficulties to be overcome.
66. There is one further administrative consideration of particularimportance, and that is the need of the Government to consider the realism ofthe demands on administration which its economic policies and programs imply.Where administrative capacity is limited there is merit in relying to theminimum extent on administrative controls in such matters as industrialpolicy, price policy, food policy, trade policy, etc. These are, of course,areas of possibly conflicting objectives, but the pursuit of objectives whichcannot be achieved because of lack of administrative capacity diffuses effort,and impedes action. Problem areas of this kind have been inherited by thepresent Government; e.g., the nationalized industries where some steps arebeing taken toward greater involvement of private enterprise. Steps have
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also been taken to improve the climate for private investment through raisingthe private investment ceiling and permitting private equity participationand management contracts in production of paper, cement, oil and gas. Taxincentives and foreign collaboration in the interest of technical improvementor development of domestic raw materials and exports are also aimed at alarger private role in industrial development. So far, however, the conces-sions to the private sector and market forces are fairly modest, and con-siderable scope for administrative economy in these directions and throughgreater decentralization of administrative authority and responsibilityremain.
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CHAPTER 5
POPULATION CONTROL
67. With a population of about 83 million in 1977, Bangladesh is theeighth most populous country in the world, and if the present 2.8 percentgrowth were to continue, the population would double by the end of the century.The implications of such growth for population density (already roughly equiv-alent to placing the entire world population in the USA), food output, employ-
ment, housing and urbanization, and the need for education and other public
services, are very serious. The overwhelming importance of the problem is
fully recognized by the Government. Since the long-term development prospects
of Bangladesh are closely linked with its population growth, actions taken tocontrol population will play a major role in determining the success ofnational development efforts.
68. The Government has recently announced a national strategy forpopulation control. It plans to limit the population to about 115 million by
the end of this century. This implies attaining a Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)
of one 1/ by the year 1985, corresponding to a growth rate in that year ofabout 1% p.a. compared with 2.8% this year. This is an ambitious target. If
it is achieved, the population would ultimately stabilize at around 170million.
69. The stakes are high. Even if the country were to achieve a NRR ofone by 1985, it would have to increase food production by 7.3 million tons or
over 56% by the end of the century in order to maintain per capita consumptionat its current level. This would mean an annual output increase of about 2.2percent which is close to that achieved in the 1960's. By contrast, if a NRRof one is not achieved until the year 2000, foodgrain production would by then
have to increase by 10.8 million tons implying an anual growth rate of 2.7
percent.
70. Similarly, given a population in which, according to the 1974census, 48 percent of the population is under 15, education investment throughthe year 2000 would add up to about $9.7 billion if a NRR of one is reached in
1985, even using today's inadequate investment per pupil of $17. If a NRR of
one is not reached until 2000, investment would exceed $11.6 billion.
71. Whatever the year in which the NRR reaches one, it will not help to
relieve the unemployment problem. Most of the population making up the labor
supply in this century is already born. An average of 800,000 new jobs willhave to be created every year just to keep under- and unemployment nearpresent levels. With the most rapid fertility decline, the urban population
1/ i.e. Replacement level. It means that on average each woman would have
one daughter who could be expected to live to the mean age of reproduc-tion. At present NRR is about 2.1
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could still increase to around 28 million from the present 8 million over the
next 23 years, assuming that urbanization in the year 2000 is comparable to
that in India today. The capital cost of providing additional housing and
other services will put great strain on the resources of the country.
72. The current target of the government is to reduce the rate of
growth of population to 2.4 percent by 1978 and to 2 percent by 1980. This
would mean that the continuous users of contraceptive methods as a percentage
of the female reproductive population (age 15-49) will have to rise to about 22
percent by 1980 or to an acceptor rate of 36 percent. The target growth rates,
number of users, fertility rate and percentage of couples using contraceptives,
as estimated by the Government for the period 1976-1980, are given in Table 8.
Table 8: PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH RATE AND CONTRACEPTIVE ACCEPTORS TARGET
ContinuousUsers as Continuous
Total % of Users per
Growth Fertility Users in Millions Female 1,000
Year Population Rate Rate Continuers Acceptors Population Population
1975/76 80.00 3.00 6.45 0.83 1.33 4.74 10.38
1976/77 82.44 2.77 6.03 1.60 2.64 8.92 19.41
1977/78 84.75 2.53 5.59 2.44 4.03 13.23 28.75
1978/79 86.92 2.28 5.15 3.31 5.46 17.50 38.08
1979/80 88.92 2.00 4.66 4.25 6.98 21.87 47.80
Source: National Population Policy - An Outline, June 1976, Government of
Bangladesh.
73. A rapid deceleration in the birth rate is made all the more necessary
because of the expected further fall in the death rate which, having declined
from over 50 per thousand in the 1920's and 1930's to 28.4 in 1960/61 and to
16.0 in 1975/76, is now expected to reach 13.0 per thousand in 1979/80.
74. Over the last year and a half, the Government has given support to
the program at the highest level, made increased budgetary allocations, and
has begun to place much more stress on the family planning program in its
public pronouncements. Policy at the national level is set by the National
Population Council. The Population Control and Family Planning Division
(PCFPD) in the Ministry of Health, Population Control and Family Planning
(MOHPCFPD) has overall responsibility for administering the multi-ministryprogram. PCFPD expanded considerably in 1976 and in mid-year was completely
separated from the Health Division and placed under a separate Advisor.
Interministerial Coordination Committees supervise program implementation at
the regional level. The Health Division of the MOHPCFPD and five other
ministries (Local Government, Rural Development and Cooperatives; Labor and
Social Welfare, Agriculture; Education; and Information and Broadcasting) are
also involved. They support family planning motivation and education elements
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in schemes focused on an improvement in the economic and social status ofwomen and training of village leaders. At the grassroots level, the popula-tion control program relies on family planning field workers who are respon-sible for delivering basic family planning and mother and child health services,motivating people toward family planning and gathering service statistics.
75. There are several basic components in the program:
(i) providing various contraceptive services through family planningclinics, and distribution of conventional contraceptives throughclinics, health institutions, family welfare workers and assis-tants, and commercial channels;
(ii) organizing education programs through individual contacts byfield worker home visits, with community based education-motivation activities involving community leaders, primaryschool teachers, voluntary organizations, cooperatives andlabor welfare centers, and population education throughinclusion in the formal school curricula, adult literacyand women's vocational training programs;
(iii) using mass media such as newspapers, radio, television,posters, pamphlets, films and exhibitions; a populationcell has been established at Radio Bangladesh and a featurewriting bureau has been created in the Press InformationDepartment to prepare requisite population information formass media;
(iv) strengthening of maternal and child health services so asto reduce infant and child mortality, which is expected tohelp reduce fertility rates;
(v) programs aimed at the social development of women;
(vi) a large training program to provide manpower for all theabove.
In addition, programs using various incentives and disincentives, and asterilization program, have been under consideration.
76. Progress in the above, and related past programs, has in many res-pects been impressive and tangible results are beginning to emerge, as is
shown by the following table:
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Table 9: DELIVERY OF CONTRACEPTIVE SERVICES
Year I.U.D. Sterilization Condoms Pills Others
(dozen) (cycles)
1971/72 9,087 16,859 785,282 22,079 -
1972/73 15,785 792 1,598,360 146,511 73,568
1973/74 27,592 15,461 936,631 438,973 99,704
1974/75 48,776 18,978 773,497 1,127,041 107,307
1975/76 Target 353,000 45,000 3,350,000 1,215,000 n.a.
1975/76 Actual 77,744 48,458 4,661,202 5,740,766 124,452
1976/77 /a 38,618 31,277 1,763,907 2,466,440 36,011
/a To January 15, 1977.
Source: Population Control and Family Planning Division, Government of
Bangladesh.
However, only about 5 percent of couples are now practicing family planning
continuously. As a first test of implementing the strategy through inten-
sive effort, a project called "Zero Population Growth, 1978-79" is being
implemented in five selected areas of Bangladesh, to identify the factors
responsible for, and the ways and means of reducing fertility within the
shortest possible time. In the meantime, an extensive recruitment and train-
ing effort is underway, but is running into some difficulties. The approved
field structure of the program provides for appointment of 4,500 Family Plan-
ning Assistants (FPA) and 13,500 Family Welfare Assistants (FWA), by 1976/77.
Due to recruitment problems, however, only about 2,900 FPP's and about 5,900
FWA's were recruited, trained and posted as of March 1977. Recruitment of
the remaining FPA's and FWP's is now underway and their training is scheduled
to start in July 1977. Only a limited number of doctors are available.
77. Recently, a number of pilot projects have begun to show encouraging
results. These provide hope that with determination and effort, further pro-
gress in population control can be achieved. The "Household Contraceptive
Distribution" project undertaken in Matlab thana from October 1975 has re-
ported a 12.5 percent user rate among married women in the 15-44 age bracket
at the end of nine months. Companiganj thana has reported that within twenty
months from start of the program, 15 percent of women in the fertile age group
practiced contraception. Initial acceptors in both projects were much higher.
Demand for terminal methods has increased during the last six months of 1976,
the monthly total of sterilizations rising from 4,600 in July 1976 to 8,000
in December 1976. Under the "Social Marketing of Contraceptives" project, ten
million condoms were sold in one year from the start of the project in December
1975. Mothers' clubs, organized under the First Population Project supported
by IDA and several other donors, report that 88 percent of the 9,339 partici-
pants in 287 clubs organized over a one-year period, accepted family planning.
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78. While data on continuation rates are not available, these initialacceptance rates, albeit in a highly motivated group, seem encouraging. The"Christian Health Care" project (distributed over different regions of thecountry and offering a variety of contraceptives) has reported continuationrates ranging from 15.6 percent to 75.5 percent among eligible couples, twoyears from the start of the project. Encouraging results of contraceptiveacceptance are also available from the "Swanirvar" (Self Reliance) villages.Most of the demonstration projects have health and other components integratedwith family planning services. The problems and limitations associated withtranslating the findings of such pilot projects into a Government programcannot be underestimated; nevertheless, these projects indicate that thereis a large reservoir of potential acceptors, if: (i) contraceptive servicesare made readily available; (ii) proper motivation is undertaken; and (iii)associated aspects of health, nutrition and education are incorporated intothe program.
79. At this point, it seems to be accepted by most observers of theprogram that the demand for family planning services exceeds supply. There-fore, the immediate tasks relate to the fullest exploitation of existingcapacity and the expansion of services. This will require improvements inorganization and the coordination of activities of all the agencies involved.In the past, frequent changes in policy and organization (concerning therelationship between the delivery of health, family planning, and mother andchild health services, especially at the field level), have contributed todelays in program implementation. While the PCFPD appears to be adequatelystaffed at headquarters, its field staff needs to be strengthened as rapidlyas possible, attractive incentives provided for qualified personnel, andproper supervision and guidance provided to field workers. Its ability toprocure goods for the program and to maintain financial accounts also needsto be strengthened. More family planning clinics, sterilization camps, andother medical facilities, such as the health complexes and health subcenters,will be needed. An adequate supply of contraceptives must be made availablein rural areas, possibly through the construction of a network of depots forcontraceptives, and by expanding commercial delivery channels. A community-based network for delivery of mother and child health services is necessary,and it is particularly important that such services be available to the poorestgroups among whom infant mortality is so high that the objectives of fertilityreduction will be difficult to meet. A glimpse of this situation is seen fromthe following data for a single thana:
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Table 10: DEATH RATES BY LANDHOLDING IN COMPANIGANG THANA, 1975
Acres of Land Crude Death Rateper Family Death Rate Age 1-4
0 35.8 86.50.1 -0.49 28.4 48.20.50-2.99 21.5 49.13.00 and over 12.2 15.2
Source: C. McCord, "What is the Use of a Demonstration Project,"School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns HopkinsUniversity.
80. In summary, progress to date, and the commitment of the government,are encouraging. The target of reducing fertility to a replacement levelwithin ten years is in theory not unattainable--although such a decline hasbeen approached by only three small countries in the 1965-1974 period--but thedifficulty of reaching it, reinforces the need to keep devoting substantialresources to population control and health.
81. In the short run, efforts are being and should be concentrated onthe delivery of services; completing the recruitment and training of fieldworkers called for under existing projects; establishing a mechanism forproper follow-up of acceptors; and streamlining the delivery system forcontraceptives. For the medium-term, it is necessary to focus on a broaderprogram to expand concurrently the service delivery base and miotivationalprograms. This would entail expediting the recruitment and training of fieldstaff and the expansion of successful pilot population schemes; improving theadministration and management of the program, including the ability to planand implement programs; training new managers in skills for all levels ofadministration; gathering service statistics; and analyzing motivation andevaluating program performance, from the standpoint of motivating demand, aswell as meeting demand.
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CHAPTER 6
FOOD PRODUCTION AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT
The Problem
82. As emphasized in Chapter 4, food production growth, plus populationcontrol to avoid dissipation of hard-won output increases, must be key ele-ments in any development strategy for Bangladesh. The acute poverty ofthe bulk of the population, the large proportion in agriculture, the limitedopportunities at present for realizing income growth from non-agricultureand non-food sectors, and the inadvisability of relying too heavily on foodimports, all point to the need to raise food output. Since almost all of thecultivable land in Bangladesh is already being worked, the expansion of outputhas to come from productivity growth through increased intensity of land usebrought about by further irrigation, improved water management, and moreintensive cultivation practices, in order to increase yields.
83. The potential for increased food production is considerable - theland is mostly fertile, water and hours of sunlight are abundant, farmers arehard working and responsive to technological change and price incentives, andthe technology for large output increases has been developed. Overcrowdinghas however led to very small farms and often a single farmer's holdings willbe divided into five or more scattered and tiny plots. Inequalities in landownership, and landlessness, are at the root of income inequalities, but theseare inequalities within an agricultural pattern in which the vast majorityof farmers who cultivate small holdings are poor. The serious income inequal-ities that exist, have to be tackled primarily by raising the productivity ofthe rural poor and by raising employment opportunities for the landless.
84. Despite real achievements in extending the irrigated area and in-troducing new rice and wheat varieties, output growth has been below poten-tials and certainly well below requirements. During the 1960's, annual popu-lation growth at around 3% per annum, outstripped food output growth, whichwas perhaps 2.3%. A similar decline in per capita production seems to havecontinued during the 1970's, aggravated by administrative dislocations andnatural disasters. The growth in family size, reductions in farm size, andslow output growth has meant also that wage labor has been displaced byfamily labor, and the poverty of the poorest has probably worsened. A morerapid increase in agricultural productivity and income resulting directlyand indirectly in additional rural employment, is essential, if these adversetrends of the 1960's and 1970's are to be reversed. The direction of possibleremedies is discussed briefly in the rest of the Chapter.
The Current Approach
85. The Government's present agricultural development strategy has ingeneral remained consistent since the late 1960's. It aims at (i) increasingthe area under irrigation and multiple cropping through major projects for
- 34 -
water storage and diversion, and through provision of tubewells and low liftpumps; (ii) delivering a package of key (and subsidized) inputs such as HYV
seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, etc., with (iii) help from the extension ser-vice and credit agencies and (iv) operating a procurement and marketing systemintended both to ensure incentive prices to producers and access to food for
selected consumers. More recently, a comprehensive area-based rural develop-ment strategy has been introduced which, along with the above stress on yieldimprovements also incorporates (v) development of rural institutions whose
concerns would include the very small farmer and the landless, and (vi) ini-tiation of rural works programs for physical infrastructure and the provisionof employment. The Government is now translating this rural developmentstrategy into specific action programs in selected thanas, and plans to add
components dealing with other important aspects of rural life including theestablishment of rural industries for employment diversification, and social(health, education) infrastructure, in order also to spread the benefitswidely. The government has also indicated its intention to progressivelywithdraw subsidies on agricultural inputs, as productivity increases andeffective price supports are provided.
The Potential
86. Present average yields of rice are about 1.2 metric tons perhectare, compared with 2.5 tons in Sri Lanka or 2.7 in Malaysia, which areclimatically similar, or over 4 tons in Taiwan where labor inputs per hectareare much greater. Wheat production has grown, from a low base, at the impres-sive average rate of 20% a year for a decade. The experience of WestBengal suggests that output could continue to grow at this rate for severalyears and provide better nutritional value while using less water thanpaddy.
87. On the input side, the irrigated boro 1/ crop of rice has grown in
ten years from 1.14 million acres to 2.84 million; low lift pumps now irrigate1.43 million acres compared with 175,000 ten years ago; but these areas areonly a fraction of the national total of 31 million acres currently croppedduring the year. The potential of groundwater irrigation through deep andshallow tubewells has only begun to be tapped. Similarly, there is greatpotential for increasing foodgrain production through applying a better pack-age of inputs to rainfed rice production. It has been estimated on the basisof expected advances from further research that over 6 million acres of landmay be suitable for rainfed HYV 2/ aus 3/ and another 6.6 million acres for
HYV aman 4/ (with 3 million of this suitable for double cropping). Yet, only
about 1-1.5 million acres are now estimated to be under rainfed HYVs.
1/ Dry season or winter crop on irrigated land.
2/ High yielding varieties.
3/ Early monsoon crop.
4/ Main monsoon crop.
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88. During the next five years it is considered possible for food-grain production to average a growth rate of approximately 3.5 percent, orabout 0.7% more than the population growth rate, which would mean producingroughly an additional 500,000 tons of foodgrain each year. This could beachieved by the illustrative mix of investments in seeds, low-lift pumps andother inputs shown in Table 11, "A Scenario for Increasing Foodgrain Pro-duction by 500,000 Tons per Year".
89. There are of course other mixes of inputs and outputs that couldproduce comparable growth rates. None of these input or output targets forfoodgrain is heroic; HYV aus and aman are expanding by less than 10 percentof the potential annually, while the fertilizer requirements are below theGovernment's planned expansion. Physical inputs could be even lower, asincreased coverage of existing pumps and tubewells would reduce the need fornew ones, and better application rates and more timely application of fer-tilizer could reduce the need for fertilizer and land. There is no doubt thatthe potential for the realization of such outputs exists, given normal weather.However sustained growth would require institutional improvements in adaptiveresearch, extension services, delivery of inputs and credit as well as expan-sion of the irrigated area.
Increasing Foodgrain Production
90. In paragraphs that follow some of the input problems of the strategydescribed above are discussed, the resolution of which would help somethinglike the illustrative scenario in Table 11 to become a reality.
91. The acreage under irrigation, as already noted, is being expanded.Last year the area under low lift pumps increased by almost 10 percent to1.43 million acres and deep tubewells also increased their coverage by almost30 percent to 54,000 acres. However, the area covered per tubewell fell from43.7 acres to 40.1 acres. The shallow tubewell program of the BangladeshAgricultural Development Corporation (BADC) fell from 23,000 acres to only13,000 acres, and the number in operation declined from 3,065 to 2,162. Thisis in part because of unattractive returns on paddy in 1976, and because ofmaintenance problems. The tubewell and low-lift pump irrigation programs couldbe strengthened not only by effective price support for paddy but also if fuelwere easily provided, pumps were serviced and returned punctually to farmersat the commencement of the season, and spares and maintenance mechanics weremore readily available. It might be advantageous if pumps were available forsale to farmer groups who wish to purchase them, rather than rented for theseason as at present, and if the private sector were permitted to repair andservice pumps. These changes would greatly reduce the administrative burdenon BADC.
92. All major studies of water resource use in Bangladesh suggest thatreturns are much higher from small scale irrigation and from drainage proj-ects than from larger scale projects. The present portfolio of Water De-velopment Board (WDB) projects is overly dependent on schemes with excessiveemphasis on large scale flood control projects whose advisability has not beenreconsidered for years. Some should probably be reduced in scale or eliminated
- 36 -
Table 11: A SCENARIO FOR INCREASING FOODGRAIN PRODUCTION BY 500,000 TONS PER YEAR
A. Increased Foodgrain Production: ResultingOutput
New Crops (tons)Wheat 1/ plant additional 150,000 acres, assuming
20,000 acres under local varieties,yielding7 mds./ac., 70,000 acres under HYV rainfedyielding 11 mds./ac. and 60,000 acres underHYV irrigated yielding 27 mds./ac ...... ........... 70,000
HYV Aman switch 500,000 acres from local varieties toHYVs (using yields of 11 mds./ac. and 20 mds./acrespectively.) ............ 170o,000
HYV Aus switch 285,000 acres from local varieties toHYVs. (using yields of 8 mds./ac. and 16 mds/ac.). 85,000
Boro 1/ bring 158,000 acres under irrigation with130,000 acres planted HYVs and the rest withlocal varieties. (using yields of 25 mds./acand 15 mds./ac.) ....................... 115,000
Existing Crops increase fertilizer use by 20,000 tons(assuminga response ratio of 3:1) .......................... 60,000
Total additional foodgrain production ................................... 500.000
B. Increased Inputs Re3uired:
Irrigation No./yr. Acres/yr Acres/yrRice Wheat
Low lift pumps 1,000 55,000 2/ 12,000 2/Shallow Tubewells 5,000 30,000 26,000Deep Tubewells 1,000 40,000 Major Schemes ---- 30,000 5,000Hand Tubewells 30,000 3,000 17.000
158,000 60,000
Fertilizer Lb (products) /ac Tons/yr
Wheat 80 5,500HYV Aman 130 26,000HYV Aus 75 10,000HYV Boro 200 12,000Local Boro 60 750Existing Crops - 20,000
74,250
Seeds
It is assumed that most seeds used would be retained or purchased fron otherfarmers. However, to keep purity high, new seeds would be supplied every fouryears for rice and every second year for wheat. Application rates are assumedto be .3 mds./ac. for rice and 1 md./ac. for wheat.
New Seeds/yr. (Tons)HYM Wheat 2,400HYV Aman 1,400HYV Aus 800HYV Boro 400
1/ Assuming that half the land to be planted to wheat and boro is currently fallowand half is producing local varieties.
2/ Coverage would be both from land covcred by new pumps and an increase in coveragefrom old pumps aS tbe ExLcnsion and Research Project takes effect.
Source: IBRD.
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entirely. The BADC small scale projects have been much more successful inincreasing production through irrigation, than the large scale works of theWDB, and it is relevant to note that despite the fact that 90% of the invest-ment in water resources during the 1960s went to the WDB, by 1973, 90% of theirrigated land was under BADC projects.
93. This year, Bangladesh began to take steps to reorganize and strengthenthe extension service along lines that have proved effective in other countries.This reorganization is based upon freeing the extension worker from extraneoustasks and instituting a system of regular training and visits that sets outclear lessons consisting of the detailed and simplified steps to be taken atspecified intervals, to improve cultivation, which are to be taught in a regularmanner, under close supervision. This requires trained specialists to teach theextension workers what they are to convey to farmers. At the moment there isa shortage of such specialists and more must be trained and in place beforemuch can be expected of the system. Further, the system requires a soundlyconceived program of adaptive research as a prerequisite of the work of exten-sion agents. There is a particular need for such research for a rainfed-riceproduction package of inputs.
94. Fertilizer has been in short supply many times in the past. Evenwhen adequate supplies were available, there have been distribution problemsfrom which the small farmer suffers most. Distribution of fertilizer, whichis a monopoly of the BADC, has been less than satisfactory because of theabsence of an efficient and well motivated dealer network, and transport,storage and allocation problems. The Government has indicated that in thefuture a much larger role will be played by the private sector. Fertilizerusage has continued to grow in recent years and in 1975/76 there was a recordofftake of 443,000 tons, mainly urea. The target for 1976/77 is 525,000 tons.The stock position of the Government was satisfactory until early in 1977,when production again came to a halt in the Ghorasal urea plant. Such set-backs, and the critical importance of fertilizer to foodgrain output, suggestthat production, stocking and planning of imports need to be monitored andmanaged carefully.
95. The availability of high quality seeds remains a problem because BADCdoes not have enough to supply farmers' needs. This is due to both productionproblems, the absence of quality control, and poor storage. Germination ratesof Government seed have been low; there has also been a slowdown in the use ofHYV seeds, although this may be related not only to insufficient supplies, butalso to inadequacies in recent price incentives, and to a procurement systemreluctant to buy HYV rice. 1/ As a result, it is estimated that farmers relyon official sources for only about 3 percent of their seed requirements.Alternative sources are far from adequate to provide sufficient supplies andare also of uncertain quality.
1/ Because it is less favored by local tastes than the traditional varie-ties and therefore less marketable when the overall supply position isgood.
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96. The availability of agri tural credit has increased, with thechief institutional sources, the . angladesh Krishi Bank and Banglad sh-.atiyaSamabaya Bank disbursing T 27 million in 1976/77 compared with Tk( 26)mil-lion the year before. BothQmain financially weak because of defaults, butrecoveries are improving. The commercial banks also play an important role.However, 85 percent of credit needs are still met from non-institutionalsources. The Government, however, has launched a program to extend Tk 1,000million of credit in 1976/77, or double the previous year's level. It isunclear whether repayment discipline can be maintained if disbursements reachthis volume. The delivery of credit to very small farmers remains a problem,but the most promising channel for providing funds and other agriculturalinputs has been the two-tiered cooperative system developed at Comilla andnow being instituted elsewhere under the Integrated Rural Development Program.The Government is beginning a thorough study of the credit delivery mechanism,which will serve as a basis for recommendations on strengthening the principalcredit institutions.
Pricing and Procurement
97. Even an efficient supply of the inputs mentioned above would be oflittle avail unless the price received by the farmer, as well as the facili-ties for marketing his produce, were adequate to provide the incentives neces-sary to stimulate greater productivity. A reasonable return is obviouslyessential since higher production techniques involve more work, investmentand risk. Moreover, prices and marketing must be known by the farmer to beadequate, well in advance of each season's planting. The recent decline in /farm prices to below the official procurement price, and the discouragementthis has evidently caused to the use of some available inputs, is a matterof concern.
98. A further complicating factor in food management in Bangladesh isthe existence of a large public distribution and ration scheme under whichsubsidized food is provided to some segments of the population. The presentpricing and procurement policy developed as a result of ad hoc responses toseveral crises. It is now important to formulate a policy which takes intoaccount the interests of producers as well as consumers in the framework ofan overall strategy for substantially increasing the output of foodgrains inthe long run. What is needed is a comprehensive policy that integrates theprovision of price supports, production inputs, procurement, imports and theration system. 1/ Inevitably, there will be competing objectives and it willnot be easy to devise a policy that will reconcile all the divergent elements,not least because of the importance of the counterpart funds generated by salesof food aid, and the existence of a ration shop price well below the procure-ment cost of local grains. In the following paragraphs some of the key prob-lems of food management are discussed.
99. Only a part of the foodgrains produced in Bangladesh pass throughany kind of marketing system. The amount is only roughly known, and it
1/ This subject is being studied by a team staffed jointly by the Inter-national Food Policy Research Institute and the World Bank.
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fluctuates markedly from year to year, but it probably ranges from 10 percentto 25 percent of output and averages about 1.8 million tons. Public.procure-ment has not exceeded about a quarter of this, or 400,000 tons, so there is a
large unregulated private market. On the selling side the large volume ofgrains imported and handled by the Government mean that about half of the
marketed output passes through the public system. In 1976/77, the Government
encouraged private traders to buy and sell rice by liberalizing rules on theholding of stocks and providing them with bank credit. This was a desirable
step as it reduced the burden on the administrative system - a basic principle
for any foodgrain policy in Bangladesh.
100. The primary objective of a comprehensive foodgrain policy should be
to provide a reliable and adequate production incentive by buying in the marketto avoid the market price dropping below a chosen incentive level; the secondobjective would be to keep the consumer price within bounds by selling when
the market price is too high; the third objective would be to provide special
supply arrangements for protecting vulnerable groups.
101. While there is every evidence that the present paddy procurement
price of Taka 74 per maund would have provided an adequate production incen-tive in 1976/77, in practice the inefficiencies of the procurement system were
such that price support at this level was impracticable and the actual market
price fell well below the procurement price. There seem to be several reasonsfor this, remedying which would help suport the market in 1977/78: (a) the
price was not announced sufficiently far in advance of the aman season. An
April or early May announcement would be ideal; (b) procurement did not takeplace effectively for a sufficiently long period - the system should be inoperation for both paddy and wheat throughout the aman and boro harvestingseasons; (c) finance for procurement was not available on time; (d) storagecapacity was inadequate for the large crops; and (e) there were not enough
procurement centers (especially in remote areas) using standard quality
evaluation procedures and accepting small lots for cash payment.
102. On the consumption side an array of programs have been built up
to accommodate particular population groups, with different levels of prior-ity and quantities supplied, not always on the basis of need. These rationprograms, selling grain at highly subsidized prices, depress the free market
price, which discourages producers. The government, to encourage productionand displace imports, must try to support the producer price and thus incursa large price support burden on top of its subsidy to consumers. A more
desirable, although difficult, aim would be to limit access to the ration
and divert those who can afford to do so to rely on the open market. Thisobjective would be approached by reducing the numbers of people entitled to
rations and/or raising ration prices somewhat, and perhaps also by reducingthe ration by 1/2 seer to 2 1/2 seers per ration card. Such actions could
be partly compensated for by pay increases, as for government employees. The
welfare of the poor and other vulnerable groups would however still need to be
protected. For this purpose, wheat could be made available through the ration
system, at appropriate prices, irrespective of market stabilization activity
with respect to rice. Food for Work Programs would be continued as a further
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means to provide for the rural destitute, and the Rural Works Program could
be expanded as a vehicle for providing cash to the unemployed and landless,thus also increasing the demand for food from local markets.
103. The details of any changes in the above direction have yet to be
worked out, as do the administrative manpower requirements and subsidy costsinvolved. It is already clear, however, that the level of stocks required to
absorb fluctuations in food supplies would be smaller, if the identificationof situations in which corrective price, procurement or sales actions arerequired, is prompt. For this to happen, it appears essential to have a
better reporting system on market and procurement prices, and strengthenedanalysis of returns and production costs on representative farms. Thesewould assist also in assessing cost-price relationships and in keeping track
of the overall effect on producers of changes in input subsidies and procure-
ment and market prices.
104. In a country where production levels can vary dramatically, and if
emergencies are not to become tragedies, it is necessary for the Gove-rnmentto keep an emergency stock. Present plans aim at storage capacity of almost1.5 million tons, which seems to be a reasonable objective. But holdingstocks is costly and the amount of stock to be held depends in part onwhether food aid imports could be reliably mobilized and delivered quickly.
105. In connection with food policy and agricultural strategy, there isthe further consideration about flexibility in the composition of aid. If,
as expected, Bangladesh is able to increase reliance on domestic food sup-
plies, this would enable a shift in the composition of aid away from foodaid to take place and, towards commodity and project aid. It is important,
therefore, for Bangladesh to be able to count on the flexibility of donorsover the longer term to adjust the timing, volume and composition of aid to
a changing economic structure, including rising food self-reliance, as wellas to shorter term fluctuations in weather and harvest conditions.
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CHAPTER 7
RESOURCE MOBILIZATION
A. Domestic Resources 1/
106. A striking feature of the economy of Bangladesh is the continuingvery large imbalance between public expenditures and public revenues. Theneed to reduce this gap represents one of the most difficult challengesfacing policy makers. Expenditures rose at a rapid rate in the periodafter independence. Initially, considerable sums were spent on rehabilita-tion. Subsequently, the maintenance of existing investments and the expansion
of the development effort have necessarily accounted for a continuing growthof expenditure.
Fiscal Performance
107. Current non-development expenditures and development expenditures
(which include both a current and a capital component) since 1972/73 are setout in Table 12. The trend of expenditures implies that the share of devel-opment spending in GDP increased from 4.7 percent to about 10.8 percent in
1975/76, while that of current non-development expenditures rose from 6.4percent to 8.7 percent. There has been, therefore, considerable restraintin spending for non-development purposes, whereas the emphasis on developmentexpenditures has been rising, despite shortfalls from initial targets. On the
revenue side, the ratio to GDP rose from the very low level of 4.9 percent in.1972/73 to 11.2 percent in 1975/76.
108. The marked improvement in the current revenue effort has contributedto limiting the size of the deficit which had to be financed from external or
expansionary sources. Nevertheless, the deficit as shown in Table 12 went upfrom 6.2 percent of GDP to 8.2 percent in 1975/76. Its financing requiredheavy dependence on external assistance. The role of domestic financingthrough credit expansion, which was substantial in the earlier years, dec-lined significantly in relative terms during 1975/76.
109. The Government deserves substantial credit for its tax effort,considering the many difficulties it faced. Some of the results are due toimprovements in both levels of taxation and tax administration. Given thelow average per capita income, the emphasis has been concentrated less ondirect taxes and more on indirect taxes, especially import duties. Almost90 percent of tax collection comes from indirect taxes, of which almost 40percent comprises customs duties. Excise duties and sales taxes account forapproximately 25 percent and 15 percent, respectively, of the indirect taxes
1/ The following analysis is limited to public sector finances because ofthe paucity and unreliability of aggregate data on private investmentand savings.
TABLE 12: DOMESTIC REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE(Tk. Million)
Budget1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
EXPENDITURE
Current non-development 2,914 4,425 5,655 6,837 7,679
Development 2,131 3,050 3,932 8,500 11,404
Total 5,045 7,475 9,587 15,337 19,083
REVENUE
Tax 1,866 3,091 5,479 6,718 7,675
Non-Tax 370 848 1,358 2,108 2,148
Total 2,236 3,939 6,837 8,826 9,823
DEFICIT 2,809 3,536 2,750 6,511 9,260
GDP (at current factor cost) 45,300 63,100 82,600 79,000 87,400
REVENUE RATIOS
Actual
Revenue/GDP 4.9 6.2 8.2 11.2 11.2
Tax/GDP 4.1 4.9 6.6 8.5 8.8
Non-Tax/GDP 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.7 2.4
Source: Ministry of Finance.
43 -
levied. This structure has remained more or less unchanged over the period.
The increased volume of imports and the very slow growth in income contributedsignificantly to this pattern: the ratio of imports to GDP, for example,
increased from about 13 percent in 1972/73 to about 24 percent in 1975/76.
Table 13: TAX REVENUEBudget
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
Indirect Taxes 1,699 2,704 4,715 5,808 6,691
of which:Customs (697) (1,187) (1,517) (2,602) (3,130)Excises (550) (836) (1,503) (1,780) (3,130)Sales Tax (214) (434) (619) (1,105) (1,135)
Direct Taxes 167 387 764 910 984
of which:Personal Income (136) (322) (614) (602) (661)Corporate Taxes (3) (9) (62) (201) (216)
Total Tax Revenue 1,866 3,091 5,479 6,718 7,675
Source: Ministry of Finance and National Board of Revenue.
Table 14: INDICATORS OF REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE
Budget1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
GDP, Revenue and Expenditure(Taka billion)
GDP at Current Factor Cost 45.3 63.1 82.6 79.0 87.4Government Current Revenue 2.2 3.9 6.8 8.8 9.8
Government Current Expenditures 2.9 4.4 5.7 6.8 7.7
Development Expenditures 2.1 3.1 3.9 8.5 11.4
Ratios (%)
Current Revenue/GDP 4.9 6.2 8.2 11.2 11.2
Current Expenditures/GDP 6.4 7.0 6.8 8.7 8.8
Current Surplus/GDP -1.5 -0.8 1.4 2.5 2.5
Development Expenditures/GDP 4.7 4.8 4.8 10.8 13.0
Total Expenditure/GDP /a 11.1 11.8 11.6 19.4 21.8
Aid Finance/Development Exp. 80.0 /a 97.7 76.6 74.0 80.3
Note: For purposes of this table, GDP estimates, which are available at
constant prices only had to be converted to current prices.
/a Excluding reconstruction and rehabilitation expenditure.
Source: Ministry of Finance - Annual Budget and IBRD. For details, see
Tables 5.1 and 5.4.
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Revenue Potentials
110. The problem of fiscal management in Bangladesh is complex. The
sheer size of the revenue-expenditure gap, the need to accelerate the devel-
opment effort, and the potential instability of the principal sources of bud-
getary revenues (import duties and counterpart funds from foreign aid), under-
score the overwhelming need to seek ways and means to improve public revenues
and to curtail less essential expenditures. A sizeable share of receipts on
capital account is now derived from the sale of aid financed imports, especially
foodgrains which are mostly received on grant terms. Consequently a large seg-
ment of budgetary receipts is subject to fluctuations in the import program.
If imports decline, due to a temporary fall in demand, or as a result of favor-
able foodgrain harvests, as happened recently, the resulting shortfall in
revenue is bound to hamper the country's development program, as it is the
latter that is usually trimmed when financial stringency occurs.
111. There is, therefore, a compelling need to find additional sourcesof revenue, both to increase total receipts and to diversify the tax struc-
ture. One alternative is a tax on presumed income from agriculture, which
accounts for about two-thirds of the national product. The Government has
made a start in the 1976/77 budget through including agricultural income in
total taxable income, and by introducing charges for the beneficiaries of some
major irrigation schemes. In the future, increased water charges on pumps,
tubewells, and other irrigation schemes represent opportunities for increasing
collections from the agricultural sector. Tax revenue from the agricultural
sector could be raised by withdrawal of the moratorium on the land tax and by
raising the land assessment to reflect the recent changes in the value of land.
However, it would be unrealistic in the short-run to expect the agricultural
sector to contribute large sums in the form of direct taxation.
112. Improvements in tax collection, and some changes in the structure
of direct taxes could also produce additional revenue. In recent years
Bangladesh has improved its tax intelligence and tax collections. In 1976/77,
for example, despite a decline in the level of imports, collections have not
declined. This is primarily because of an improvement in procedures and an
intensification in the collection of tax arrears. However, there is room
for further improvement. Despite an increase in recruitment, the inland
revenue department remains understaffed. Its capacity for gathering tax
intelligence also needs strengthening and the training facilities available
to inland revenue officers need to be expanded. The need for further upgrad-
ing of the tax administration is one aspect of the more general problem of
administrative capacity, discussed elsewhere in this report. Further, in
Bangladesh as in a number of other developing countries, it is likely that
collections of income taxes would increase if the very high marginal rates
of tax were reduced to meaningful levels. Bangladesh took some steps in
this direction in the 1976/77 budget.
113. A further potential source of revenues lies in public enterprises.
At present the public sector comprises about 400 units and accounts for over
80 percent of the value added in manufacturing industry. These units include
most large and medium-scale enterprises and are organized under a number of
- 45 -
public sector corporations. The First Five Year Plan (1973) estimated thereplacement value of assets in nationalized industries to be Tk 9 billion (at1973/74 prices). The First Plan also expected a 10 percent rate of returnfrom these assets by 1975/76. Unfortunately, the financial performance ofthe major corporations has been unfavorable. Those enterprises which servicethe domestic market have generally performed better than industries geared toexport markets. Overall, however, the losses sustained by three major indus-tries (jute, paper, and chemicals) have more than offset the small profitsmade by the rest (Table 15).
Table 15: FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF PUBLIC SECTOR CORPORATIONS(Taka million)
Net Profits/Losses1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76
Sector Corporation
Jute (BJMC) -325 -332 -239 -285Textile (BTMC) 100 163 125 60Paper (BPBC) -34 -33 -53 -125Steel (BStMC) -26 19 42 53Engineering (BESC) 8 41 45 21Chemicals (BFCPC) 15 63 -181 -67Food (BFAIC) 15 25 53 -14Sugar (BSgMC) -37 39 54 0Tanning (BTC) -9 -6 -3 3Forest (BFIDC) 6 31 51 __Total -287 10 -106 -354
Source: Table 8.2 of Statistical Appendix.
114. The task of transforming the losses of public enterprises intoprofits is a complex one and will involve sustained action over the mediumterm on a number of fronts. Among key problems are lack of operational auto-nomy, price controls, inadequate incentives and insufficient accountability.The ability of public enterprises to pursue flexible policies and to act astrue commercial entities has been hampered by a tendency towards excessivecentralization of decision-making in the Government ministries, includingsuch matters as the selection of personnel. Recognizing these difficulties,the Government in May 1976 issued guidelines on the relationship betweenthe Government and sector corporations and the sector corporations and enter-prises under them. Detailed "Rules of Business" for all sector corporationswere to be formulated and finalized before the end of 1976. In fact, however,no "Rules of Business" have as yet been finalized for any sector corporation,although drafts are available for a few corporations.
115. Price controls exist for "essential" commodities (cotton yarn,medicines, soap, edible oil, cement, paper, newsprint, cigarettes, etc.)and "monopoly" products (fertilizers, chemicals, steel products, andsugar). Consequently, the financial performance of many public enterprises
- 46 -
is highly dependent on centrally determined prices. Newsprint and fertili-zer prices were initially controlled without reference to production costs,but were raised substantially in April 1976. In the cotton textile indus-try (BTMC), profits are gradually turning into losses, largely because thecontrolled prices of finished products do not reflect the higher cost ofimported raw cotton. In the case of jute manufactures, the price of rawjute is adjusted to provide incentives to farmers, while product prices haveto be maintained at levels competitive with other exporting countries andwith synthetic substitutes; this contributes to (but is by no means the onlycause of) heavy losses. Efforts should be made to reduce price controls andto permit prices to rise to more remunerative levels.
116. The problem of incentives for public enterprise employees arisesfrom the fact that their pay structure is linked to the general pay scaleapplying to all civil servants (which is at present very low). There areseveral ways to improve incentives: (i) a bonus system based on productivityfor workers and financial performance for managers could be formulated forall public enterprises (at present a modest but attractive bonus system forworkers based on their productivity has been introduced in some industries,such as cotton textiles and steel, but at incentive levels of questionablevalue); (ii) the pay structure applying to employees of public enterprisescould be made independent of that of the civil service; and (iii) a systemof profit participation for workers could be designed to reinforce the bonussystem.
117. Once appropriate autonomy is given to sector corporations andenterprises, it is important to make managers accountable for the perform-ance of their enterprises, and the corporation Boards for the performanceof their respective sectors in accordance with policy and operational targets.It is also essential to require sector corporations to publish up-to-datefinancial statements for the corporation and each enterprise under theirresponsibility. Efforts should be made to have prompt and reliable auditing.At present there are delays of several years. A related problem is the needto resolve the question of the financial liabilities inherited by corporationsafter nationalization, which relate to debts contracted by the previous owners.The jute industry in particular is saddled with substantial liabilities.Finally, the assets of public enterprises should be valued realistically sothat financial performance can be measured in terms of a rate of return oninvestment and appropriate principles established for depreciating capitalstock.
118. A special group of public sector entities are the public utilities.They also suffer from unsatisfactory financial rates of return. The truefinancial picture is even less favorable as assets are undervalued and willneed replacing. Improvements have been made in the Dacca and Chittagong Waterand Sewage Authorities through action programs including improved billingsand collections. Tariffs, however, could be raised, for example, for gas,electricity, water, telephone and air transport. If these units made returnson their assets, they could contribute more to their own investment andmaintenance programs, and draw less from the development budget.
- 47 -
Subsidies
119. Beyond taxation and improved profitability of public sector enter-prises, in the immediate future the largest scope for reducing the revenue-expenditure gap relates to a curtailment of the high level of production andconsumption subsidies. These subsidies besides preempting a large segmentof government revenue also tie down a large part of the Government's admin-istrative machinery. Subsidies provided for fertilizer and pesticides accountfor a significant portion of development expenditure in the agricultural sector- in some years over half (Table 16). There is evidence that the agriculturalinput subsidies have already had a favorable effect on fertilizer use, and arebenefiting the larger farmers rather than the small and marginal ones. Sincethe burden of the subsidies grows with the adoption of input packages andgiven the positive impact on fertilizer use and agricultural income which suchsubsidies now have, there may be a case for further reducing them. Halvingthe fertilizer subsidy would have reduced the estimated 1976/77 budget deficitby over 4 percent.
Table 16: AGRICULTURE INPUT SUBSIDIES(Taka million)
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
Development Expenditureson Agriculture 878 576 639 1,302 1,635
Subsidies:
Fertilizer 160 186 270 682 752Pesticides n.a. 26 70 20 3
% of Development Expendi-tures on Agriculture (18) (39) (53) (34) (46)
Note: Revised estimates for 1974/75 and 1975/76 and budget estimate for1976/77.
/a Crops, forestry, fisheries and livestock development.
Source: Planning Commission.
120. On the consumption side, the subsidy involved in the foodgrain dis-tribution system is difficult to calculate. Two broad approximations of thesize of the subsidy are shown in Table 17. In the first approximation, thesubsidy is defined as the difference between estimated total costs of foodgrainsold, including an allocation for the value of aid-financed foodgrain, andtotal receipts from sales, allowing for changes in stocks. In 1976/77 thesubsidy calculated on this basis, referred to in Table 17 as the "nominal"subsidy is nearly Tk 2.3 billion. The other indicator is the cash transferfrom the revenue budget to the food account. This amounts to Tk 840 millionin 1976/77. While the "nominal" subsidy represents the opportunity cost to
- 48 -
Table 17: ESTIMATED FOODGRAIN SUBSIDY(Full Valuation Base)
(Tk. million)
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
Procurement Costs 2,282 3,395 4,931 6,855 3,407
Own Resources 1,270 1,325 1,741 1,869 1,526
Imports (c.i.f.) (1,270) (1,185) (1,291) (515) (nil)
Domestic Procurement (-) (140) (450) (1,354) (1,526)
Aid Imports 1,012 2,070 3,190 4,986 1,881
Loans (42) (530) (1,284) (3,550) (n.a.)
Grants (971) (1,540) (1,906) (1,436) (n.a.)
Stock Adjustment +58 +158 -1,090 -390 +730
(+ cost of depletion)(- value of addition)
Distribution Costs 210 300 902 904 92/a
Total Expenditure 2,550 3,853 -4,743 7,369 5,057
Total Receipts 625 720 2,156 2,195 2277&
Deficit (Nominal Subsidy) 1,925 3,133 2,587 5,174 2,279
GOB Revenue Budget SubsidyTransfer 783 963 916 1,006 840.
Subsidy Transferas % of Nominal Subsidy 41% 31% 35% 19% 37%
/a Adjusted proportionately to the reduction in offtake (from 2 to 1.4 million
tons); budget estimates of distribution costs and total receipts are
Tk. 1,314 million and Tk. 3,069 million, respectively.
Source: Government of Bangladesh and IBRD.
- 49 -
the economy in terms of alternative uses which could have been made of theamount involved, the "cash" subsidy represents an actual expenditure item tothe budget. The cash subsidy varies with the size of the ration offtake andthe subsidy per unit of foodgrain. One measure of the benefits which could bederived from limiting ration rolls and increasing ration prices is the sharewhich this year's estimated "cash" subsidy represents of the total revenue/expenditure gap; this share is 9%.
121. The changes enumerated above will need considerable time for imple-mentation. Over the short run, therefore, heavy reliance on indirect taxeswill continue to be necessary. Because of the relative ease of collection andthe large share of imports in GDP, a reduction in exemptions and a rational-ization of the import duty structure are desirable as interim measures.
B. Exports
122. Part (A) of this chapter dealt with the problem of mobilizing gov-ernment revenues and public sector corporations' savings, for developmentpurposes. We now turn to the mobilization of export earnings, which shouldbecome (but are not yet) the main source of finance for foreign exchangeexpenditures. This Chapter offers only a partial treatment of the moregeneral subject of designing export and import policies which maximize thelong-run gains from trade.
123. The volume of exports from Bangladesh has shown no upward trendsince 1972, nor has the value which, in 1976 prices, has been about $400 mil-lion. This is allied with a high commodity concentration in jute and jutegoods, which accounted for 90 percent of exports in 1972/73 but which havesteadily declined in relative importance to 74 percent in 1976/77. Exportshave financed between about 40 percent-45 percent of imports in good cropyears, and 25 percent when large food imports have been necessary. Thereforeexternal capital inflows have had to finance from 60 percent to 75 percent ofimports, as well as 80 percent of development expenditures.
Table 18: MERCHANDISE EXPORT VALUES(US$ million)
Average1965/66-1969/70 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
Jute and Jute Goods 331.0 305.5 318.0 299.0 303.3 294.7(304.0) /a
Others 145.8 34.4 43.6 59.0 77.3 105.5(28.9) /a
Total Exports 476.8 339.9 361.6 358.0 380.6 400.2(332.9) /a
/a excluding exports to West Pakistan.
Source: Table 3.1 of the Statistical Appendix and IBRD.
- 50 -
The low level of exports - still below that of pre-independence years inconstant dollars - poses one of the country's most intractable structuralproblems. The problems of the export sector go back many years to the period,after Partition when the country had to build a jute manufacturing industryand major export facilities afresh; again since 1971 it has had to adapt tothe loss of the Pakistan market for several manufactured goods as well as thedeparture of many Pakistani managers from export industries.
124. The country faces the imperative of raising the growth rate of exportearnings considerably above that of the economy as a whole. Even though minorexports have shown considerable growth and potential, the dominance of raw jute(in which Bangladesh still has a comparative advantage) and jute manufacturesmeans that any strategy for the coming decade must include an all-out effortto get the best returns. Alongside jute, however, non-traditional exports,including those yet to be produced or even identified, must be made to benefitfrom a single minded export strategy. Such an export emphasis, to be success-ful, must be based on an efficient set of domestic industrial and agriculturalpolicies with, for the time being at least, minimum compromise with otherobjectives such as short-term employment preservation, or profit or ownershiprestrictions. The succeeding paragraphs examine these issues.
Raw Jute Production
125. Bangladesh's exports of raw jute have declined from a level ofabout $170 million in the 1960s to around $120 million in the mid-1970s. Inthe 1970s, declining world demand resulted from the world economic recessionand competition from synthetics. Until 1975/76 rapid domestic inflation andsubstantial increases in paddy prices distorted the jute/paddy price ratio andforced a reduction in jute acreage and output. Jute area declined by one-thirdand raw jute output by 30 percent in 1974/75, compared with the previous year.The situation has subsequently reversed itself and during much of 1976/77 thefarmgate price of paddy was about Tk 50-60 per maund whereas the farmgate priceof raw jute was above Tk 90 per maund, giving a jute-paddy ratio well above1.3, which is regarded as an adequate incentive for jute. As a result a muchlarger crop is expected in 1977/78. An attractive jute price for farmers mustcontinue. Acreage movements for jute in relation to the jute/rice price ratioare shown in the adjacent chart.
Table 19: EXPORTS OF RAW JUTE
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
Export Volume 2.8 2.7 1.6 2.4 2.3(Million bales)
Export Price 44.5 46.6 55.5 52.0 52.0($ per bale)
Export Earnings 126.0 124.0 86.0 121.3 114.4(Million $)
Source: Bangladesh Jute Export Corporation and the ExportPromotion Bureau.
- 51 -
JUTE ACREAGE .)IN MILLIONS OF ACRES IN YEAR t+1
VsJUTE/'RICE PRICE RATIO(- IN YEAR t
2.5 f 7 fIIIIF T
2 4
232 -
2.2
1 7~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
213
I 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
.7 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
.6 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
.3 -~~~~~~~~~~~~
.2 ~ ~ *a
.19* .
1947Y48 195015 * a55 1606 195661707 19717FSA L YEAR
Bangladsh Land an aVtrRsucsScorsuyadJt or* a a~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Wrd ak-i79
- 52 -
126. The expansion of jute production will depend on the maintenance ofan attractive and fairly stable jute/paddy price ratio and the adoption ofan improved production package. The Government has prepared an IntensiveJute Cultivation Scheme (IJCS) which is to cover eventually about one millionacres. The IJCS improved production package includes increased support staffand credit to farmers, combined with improved coordination of the operationalagencies. The IJCS has been successful in raising jute yields by close to 50percent in the areas in which it has been introduced. It has demonstratedthat when a proper package of inputs is presented, farmers will accept itand good results can be achieved. However, it has often fallen short of itstargets in the past. In 1975/76, the IJCS was only able to cover 290,000acres against the target at the beginning of the year of 500,000 acres.It is hoped that the IJCS program will be able to cover 500,000 acres inthe 1977/78 season and expand over the succeeding four or five years to atleast one million acres. Expansion of the scheme will allow increased juteproduction while freeing land for other crops.
127. Procurement of jute from the many small and scattered producersis at present circuitous and costly, and prices received by farmers could beimproved, for instance by marketing through cooperatives, and if more storagedepots were available. In late 1975 the private sector was allowed an expandedrole in exporting raw jute and they now account for about 80 percent of the rawjute export trade. Their involvement improved sales and raised the domesticprice of raw jute. The present export price of raw jute in Western Europe isestimated to be about 10 percent below the level of polypropylene resin, so itis still regarded as competitive with synthetic substitutes.
Jute Manufactures
128. Exports of jute manufactures amount to approximately one half oftotal export earnings and the Jute industry contributes one-third of the valueadded in the organized manufacturing sector. The jute industry, consistingof 77 jute mills with about 170,000 employees, is under the management of theBangladesh Jute Mills Corporation (BJMC), a public sector corporation.
Table 20: EXPORTS OF JUTE GOODS
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
Export Volume(thousand long tons) 412 438 379 437 460
Export Price($ per ton) 437 441 561 416 392
Export Earnings(million $) 179 194 213 182 180
Source: Bangladesh Jute Mills Corporation.
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129. In contrast to the profitability of raw jute exports, especiallyin the current year, jute goods manufacturing has been decidedly unprofitablesince the mills were nationalized after independence - many of them havingbeen 'abandoned' by their Pakistani owners. Even after a 90 percent depre-ciation of the Taka in terms of the US dollar, losses in the jute industryhave averaged about Tk 300 million per annum, amounting to almost 15 percentof total sales. Losses in 1976/77 are expected to be Tk 450 million (higherthan in the pre-devaluation year of 1974/75), and export earnings in 1976/77are expected to be about US$180 million (15 percent lower than in the pre-devaluation year of 1974/75).
130. There are three related reasons for this: first, the efficiencyof the industry is very low. Secondly, at least as far as 1976/77 is con-cerned, input prices were high and it appears that the buying policies ofthe BJMC also led to the mills paying more for their raw jute than did directexporters. It may be necessary to consider a variable export tax on raw juteto help regulate its price as an industrial input, as well as the price paidto the farmer. Thirdly, while the recovery of the world market has reviveddemand for jute goods, the structure of demand has shifted away from suchitems as sacking and hessian, resulting in a marked decline in capacityutilization in these categories. Increases in demand for other items, suchas carpet backing have not been sufficient to offset the adverse impact.This has been compounded by the erection of trade barriers by some new jutegoods producers and continued competition from synthetic substitutes.
131. The Government is undertaking a program, with technical assistance,to modernize jute mills, reduce waste, improve management efficiency, andimprove costing and financial practices. It is likely that, in order toimprove capacity utilization, inefficient mills will have to be closed downand production consolidated, even though there may for a time be adverseemployment consequences. Improving management will in all probability re-quire extensive technical assistance in accountancy, marketing, etc., andfor some mills managing agreements with local or foreign firms may be advis-able. The mills would probably perform better, given more autonomy and clearperformance objectives supported by incentives.
132. While divesting itself at least partly of the task of running theexisting jute goods exports, the Government could concentrate on researchand development aspects of a long run strategy for the survival of jute.Some promising areas in this respect are development of "jutton" (a mixtureof jute and cotton), "woolenization" of jute, and new jute products forinterior decorating and furnishing. In the long run Jute International,an international organization designed to undertake research programs re-lating to jute cultivation and jute product development, as well as exportmarketing, could supplement these efforts. With higher quality products,better suited to carpet-backing, drapery and other higher value uses, andallied with aggressive marketing, it should be possible for Bangladesh toincrease its share of the world market.
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Non-Jute Exports
133. Non-jute exports in 1976/77 amounted to about 26 percent of mer-chandise export earnings. Their rate of growth in recent years has acce-lerated encouragingly, particularly as a consequence of devaluation in 1975and the supporting export incentive schemes. Among the more serious con-straints are supply shortages, and in some cases the priority given to thesatisfaction of domestic demand. The export potential is good for tea, fish,leather, sugar, paper and board, handicrafts, spices, fruit and vegetables,provided these sectors are organized systematically and made export oriented.
134. Leather is the third largest export earner ($30 million annually)but capacity utilization in the leather tanning industry is only 30 percent.The sector requires improved equipment, organization and management and aregular supply of hides and skins. As India is moving rapidly into high
quality tanned leather and leather products, there should be increasing roomfor Bangladesh to expand for the time being into the medium and lower qualitymarkets and later to upgrade its exports. The tea industry served the inte-grated market of Pakistan before independence at prices higher than compara-ble international prices. After considerable early difficulties, it hasfound alternative markets and now exports 75% of its output, but machineryrequires modernization and old tea bushes need replacing. The exploitationof fish has begun to show potential, and small quantities are exported toIndia, West Europe, Japan and the United States. The industry requires ves-sels and equipment, inland transportation facilities and training programsto improve fish culture techniques. More surveys are needed to assess thepotential for deep sea fishing. The principal problems in the paper indus-try concern the improvement of quality and a reduction in production costs.Export earnings could be doubled if suitable export markets were located.
Export Expansion
135. The buoyancy of non-jute exports is one of the most encouragingfeatures of the current economic scene, and export policies should continueto support this trend, and encourage new exports, for three reasons. First,such exports provide the economy with foreign exchange and also a usefuldemand pull especially if access can be gained to foreign markets whichare growing faster than the Bangladesh domestic market. Secondly, successfulexporting sets standards with regard to product quality, timeliness and compe-titiveness, usually with consequential benefits also for production for thehome market. Thirdly, sustained good export performance is almost invariablyfound to be based on efficient domestic economic policies. The integrationof export expansion into industrial and agricultural strategies can thereforehelp avoid the serious errors of pricing and resource use which have besetso many developing countries - especially those that have relied on importsubstitution policies. Bangladesh in particular, with low incomes and alow investment rate, can ill afford the cost of inefficient import substitu-tion or export promotion. This topic should, therefore, be high on the listfor research and decision during the preparation period for the next five-year plan.
- 55 -
136. The comparative advantages that Bangladesh can at present offerare large supplies of trainable labor with, for the time being, low wages;natural resources limited mainly to natural gas, and suitable conditionsfor the swift growth of various crops. The country has a relatively pooraccumulation of physical and institutional infrastructure and time andagain over the last three decades the nation has suffered the loss of manyof its limited numbers of managers and entrepreneurs. This suggests thatthe expansion via new exports will initially be an uphill task, requiringfinancial and technical assistance from foreign aid donors; it also suggeststhat, given the manpower surplus, it may for the present be in the nationalinterest further to encourage the migration of semi-skilled labor to otherlabor markets, as long as remittances can be increased - as has been suc-cessfully done in Pakistan and India.
137. In agriculture 1/ there is potential for further expansion in tea,spices, fresh fruit and vegetables, and for new export crops such as papain,dried mushrooms, cut flowers, cashew nuts, macademia nuts, essential oils,sunflower, rape, sesame, cardamoms and black pepper. Fish farming couldproduce oysters and mussels; honey and production of silk are further pos-sibilities. Other than edible oils these crops generally would not competefor land with paddy and jute, and cultivation could take place in the Chit-tagong Hill Tracts or Sylhet, where supporting services and infrastructure,particularly transport, are poor. For all these products quality control,processing, packing, marketing prospects and marketing and transport (includ-ing air transport) would have to be carefully studied.
138. As far as manufactured goods exports are concerned, given the lackof raw material bases other than, at present, natural gas and agricultural by-products such as straw and waste jute, it makes more sense to plan policies,facilities and incentives for industry than to plan on a product by productbasis. However, there is probably export scope in improved tanning, fibrousleather board, handicrafts, pulp and paper products and boards (using juteand other fibers), edible protein and other products from natural gas, ceramicsand pottery, export packaging, textiles and garments, component manufactureand pharmaceuticals. Within these and other categories, however, comparativeadvantage for exporting will probably come more from the individual companyand its management, and the incentives available, than from the nature ofthe product.
Export Incentives
139. Exporters of non-traditional items are afforded a range of facili-ties and incentives, the most important being the "Export Performance License"(XPL). This consists of the issuance to exporters of additional licenses toimport certain limited categories of goods, expressed as a percentage of thef.o.b. value of their exports during the preceding year. The scheme now
1/ This, and subsequent paragraphs, draw inter alia on a draft UNCTAD Report"External Sector of Bangladesh: Strategy, Policies, Problems and Recom-mendations." Geneva, January 1977.
- 56 -
covers 57 commodities and the average entitlement was increased from 13 per-
cent to 24 percent of the f.o.b. value of exports. The range of entitlement
is from 10 percent to 50 percent with higher entitlements being given for
exports which are growing slowly, or have a high import content or which face
market penetration problems. Additional items may be added following specific
recommendations from the Export Promotion Bureau and approval by the Govern-
ment. By allowing the XPL to be transferred once, exporters can also gain some
financial incentive from the resulting premitum. The evidence suggests however,
that the effective export incentive and subsidy so yielded is relatively modest
- far weaker than that from the former bonus-voucher system - and is worth less
than 10 percent on gross export value. This is far less than the incentive
provided for import substitution by the tariff structure, which offers protec-
tion at well over 100 percent ad valorem.
140. Import duties paid on materials used for export goods, and sales
taxes and excise duties paid on finished goods which are exported, are refund-
able. The export of non-traditional items (i.e. products other than raw jute,
jute goods and tea) also qualify for income tax rebates, ranging from 30
percent to 50 percent, depending on the proportion of export sales to total
sales. Exporters of ready made garments and toys have been recently exempted
from customs duties on imported raw materials, through a "bonded warehouse"
arrangement. The difficulties in the present rebate arrangements are two-
fold: (i) the time lag between payment of duties and indirect taxes, and
the rebates, is often well over a year, and (ii) the complicated procedures
necessary for securing rebates impose burdens on exporters, and sometimes
discourage small exporters from taking full advantage of the rebate system.
At present, pro rata, per unit rates of drawback are fixed for each firm,
the only exception being an industry-wide flat rate for semi-processed
leather. The system could be made more effective by adopting standardized
rates, and converting the rebate system into an exemption system.
141. Exporters now obtain pre-shipment and packing loans from commercial
banks at 11-1/2 percent interest, instead of the conventional rate of 12 per-
cent. Exporters of jute and tea obtain loans at the lower interest rate of
10-1/2 percent. It is difficult to understand the case for granting tradi-
tional exports a lower interest rate as compared with non-traditional exports.
Further, the difference between the preferential and conventional rate, i.e.
1-1/2 percent for the exporters of jute and tea and 1/2 percent for others,
appears to be too small to have much impact on export promotion. The Gov-
ernment has decided to establish export branches for commercial banks, to
specialize in types of export financing. An export credit guarantee scheme,
to provide insurance to banks! exporters against losses arising from risks in
export finance, has also been approved.
142. No summation is available of the overall impact of these export
incentives, or of the domestic resource costs of exports, nor of the rate
of effective protection from imports, so it would be premature to discuss
the adequacy of the present trade system. It is already clear, however,
that it is a system that relies heavily on bureaucratic controls as a substi-
tute for proper market signals and it thus places an avoidable burden on
both businessmen and the administration; it also emphasizes control over
- 57 -
promotion. The present system also gives greater rewards for import substi-tution than for exporting, and discriminates sharply between different pro-ducts, neither of which is a recipe for encouraging efficient resource use.
143. Looking further ahead, though, it is clear that designing an appro-priate incentive system is only one of many necessary steps. Simultaneously,ways of breaking the bottleneck caused by the scarcity of managers, knowhow,and of export marketing expertise must be found, and this in many cases wouldmean seeking involvement with foreign firms who can provide technical collab-oration, organization, and market outlets. Recently, the government has takensteps in this direction by permitting private equity participation and manage-ment contracts in several important sectors such as paper, cement, oil andgas. Foreign investment is permitted in collaboration with either the Govern-ment or local entrepreneurs for certain limited purposes, including exporting,under fairly rigorous conditions and with the case-by-case approval of theInvestment Board. Private investors seem still undecided about the serious-ness and adequacy of the Government's recent policy statements.
144. Lastly, there is room for a substantial program of infrastructureimprovements. The country does not get as good a deal as it could fromshipping services, and there is scope for improvements in surface transportand cargo handling efficiency. Air freight development, which in East Africahas been the key to export market development, especially in perishablefruits and vegetables, deserves careful study, as does the development ofexport processing zones which could attract firms to tap the labor surplusfor processing imported raw materials. And in a country which in the longrun must gain wealth from its skills rather than from its location or rawmaterials, investment in research into foreign trade opportunities, andtraining in business management and exporting, should yield high returns.
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table No. Title
POPULATION
1.1 Population Estimates 1960-20001.2 Population Characteristics Assuming NRR of One by 19851.3 Population Characteristics Assuming NRR of One by 19901.4 Population Characteristics Assuming NRR of One by 19951.5 Population Characteristics Assuming NRR of One by 2000
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
2.1 Gross Domestic Product at Constant 1972/73 Factor Cost2.2 Percentage Distribution of Gross Domestic Product by Sector
TRADE, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, AND FOREIGN ASSISTANCE
3.1 Merchandise Exports3.2 Merchandise Imports3.3 Import and Export Price Indices3.4 International Reserves and Outstanding Commercial and
IMF Borrowings3.5 Summary of External Assistance to Bangladesh (December 1971-
June 1976)
EXTERNAL DEBT
4.1 External Public Debt Outstanding as of June 30, 19764.2 Service Payments, Commitments, Disbursements and Outstanding
External Public Debt as of June 30, 1976
PUBLIC FINANCE
5.1 Summary of Central Government Finance5.2 Central Government Current Revenue5.3 Central Government Current Expenditures5.4 Public Development Expenditures by Sector
MONEY AND BANKING
6.1 Money and Quasi-Money6.2 Changes in Domestic Liquidity6.3 Scheduled Banks - Selected Assets and Liabilities6.4 Distribution of Bank Deposits6.5 Bank Credit by Sector6.6 Bank Credit by Economic Activity6.7 Bills Purchased and Discounted6.8 Number of Branches of Banks6.9 Selected Interest Rates
STATISTICAL APPENDIX
Table No. Title
AGRICULTURE
7.1 Area Under Main Crops7.2 Production of Main Crops7.3 Yield of Main Crops7.4 Rice: Production, Area, Yield7.5 Procurement, Distribution and Stocks of Foodgrains7.6 Foodgrain Production, Imports and Per Capita Consumption7.7 Low Lift Pump Program (1960-1976)7.8 Deep Tubewells Program (1967-1976)7.9 Shallow Tubewells Program (1972-1976)7.10 Fertilizer Consumption, Production and Imports
INDUSTRY
8.1 Production Trends of Selected Industries8.2 Financial Performance of the Public Sector Corporations8.3 Duties and Taxes Paid by Sector Corporations8.4 Development Expenditures in Public Sector Industries
PRICES AND WAGES
9.1 Dacca Middle Class Cost of Living Index9.2 Narayanganj Industrial Workers Cost of Living Index9.3 Indices of Wholesale Prices at Dacca9.4 Wholesale Prices of Selected Commodities at Dacca9.5 Retail Prices of Selected Consumer Goods at Dacca9.6 Average Prices of Rice9.7 Average Retail Prices of Rice in Dacca9.8 Minimum Retail Price Averages of Coarse Rice for
Different Groups of Districts9.9 Prices of Building Materials and Wages of Construction
Workers9.10 Average Wage Rate per Day in Dacca
JUTE
10.1 Production, Exports and Stocks of Jute Goods10.2 Production of Jute Goods10.3 Jute Goods Exports10.4 Export Prices of Jute Goods10.5 Jute Mills Stocks of Raw Jute and Jute Goods10.6 Production, Domestic Use and Exports of Raw Jute10.7 Exports and Prices of Raw Jute10.8 Export Sales of Raw Jute
TABLE 1.1
POPULATION ESTIMATES 1960-2000
(million)
Year Year
(January 1) Population (January 1) Population
1960 53.91961 55.3 1981 92.01962 56.8 1982 94.31963 58.4 1983 96.71964 59.9 1984 99.0
1965 61.6 1985 101.4
1966 63.3 1986 103.81967 65.1 1987 106.11968 66.9 1988 108.51969 68.8 1989 110.8
1970 70.8 1990 113.21971 72.3 1991 115.51972 72.4 1992 117.81973 74.4 1993 120.01974 76.2 1994 122.2
1975 78.2 1995 124.41976 80.4 1996 126.51977 82.7 1997 128.61978 85.0 1998 130.51979 87.3 1999 132.4
1980 89.6 2000 134.2
Note - The estimates in this table for 1960-1973 are based on adjusted 1961census data, and those for 1974-2000 are based on adjusted 1974census. The projections assume that Bangladesh will achieve a netreproduction rate of one by the year 2000. (See Tables 1.2 - 1.5 belowfor alternative projections.)
Source: IBRD Population and Human Resources Division, except for 1960 where thefigure is from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
TABLE 1.2
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS ASSUMINGNET REPRODUCTION RATE OF ONE BY 1985
(By 5 year intervals; thousands)
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Total Population(July 1) 79,309 89,363 96,322 101,994 108,872 116,455
Males 40,940 46,143 49,760 52,704 56,264 60,185
Females 38,369 43,219 46,562 49,290 52,607 56,270
Crude Birth Rate(per thousand pop.) 47.8 35.0 22.6 23.9 24.5 23.4
Crude Death Rate(per thousand pop.) 19.2 15.4 12.4 11-5 11.0 10.3
Growth Rate (%) 2.86 1.96 1.03 1.24 1.35 1.31
Total Fertility Rate 6.575 4.705 2.834 2.720 2.617 2.525
Life Expectancy at Birth(in years)
Male 44.97 47.97 50.47 52.97 55.47 57.97
Female 44.50 47.50 50.00 52.50 55.00 57.50
Age Distribution(January 1)
Total 78,177 88,489 95,827 101,364 108,135 115,694
0- 4 14,167 14,676 11,745 9,914 11,242 12,2075- 9 11,453 13,189 13,842 11,189 9,489 10,843
10-14 9,733 11,259 12,994 13,663 11,064 9,39615-19 8,264 9,522 11,046 12,777 13,463 10,92420-24 6,963 8,021 9,275 10,789 12,514 13,222
25-29 5,830 6,716 7,769 9,014 10,520 12,24430-34 4,856 5,599 6,480 7,526 8,765 10,26835-39 4,024 4,636 5,373 6,247 7,286 8,52140-44 3,304 3,811 4,417 5,145 6,011 7,04345-49 2,685 3,100 3,598 4,192 4,908 5,761
50-54 2,145 2,1I76 2,879 3,362 3,939 4,63655-59 1,664 1,926 2,242 2,625 3,084 3,63'60-64 1,242 1,431 1,674 1,965 2,319 2,74765-69 863 999 1,167 1,379 1,636 1,95070-74 546 628 739 875 1,047 1,258
75+ 437 500 586 702 848 1,036
Source: IBRD Population and Human Resources Division.
TABLE 1.3
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS ASSUMINGNET REPRODUCTION RATE OF ONE BY 1990
(By 5 year intervals; thousands)
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Total Population(July 1) 79,309 90,160 99,786 107,314 114,125 121,952
Males 40,940 46,552 51,540 55,448 58,979 63,029
Females 38,369 43,608 48,246 51,866 55,146 58,924
Crude Birth Rate(per thousand pop.) 47.8 39.0 30.9 22.7 23.6 23.4
Crude Death Rate(per thousand pop.) 19.2 16.0 13.4 11.3 10.6 10.0
Growth Rate (%) 2.86 2.30 1.75 1.14 1.30 1.33
Total Fertility Rate 6.575 5.290 4.005 2.720 2.617 2.525
Life Expectancy at Birth(in years)
Male 44.97 47.97 50.47 52.97 55.47 57.97
Female 44.50 47.50 50.00 52.50 55.00 57.50
Age Distribution(January 1)
Total 78,177 89,122 98,912 106,704 113,384 121,139
0- 4 14,167 15,309 14,249 12,320 11,261 12,4645- 9 11,453 13,189 14,423 13,550 11,819 10,861
10-14 9,733 11,259 12,994 14,236 13,397 11,70515-19 8,264 9,522 11,046 12,777 14,029 :13,23020-24 6,963 8,021 9,275 10,789 12,514 13,778
25-29 5,830 6,716 7,769 9,014 10,520 12,24430-34 4,856 5,599 6,480 7,526 8,765 10,26835-39 4,024 4,636 5,373 6,247 7,286 8,52140-44 3,304 3,811 4,417 5,145 6,011 7,04345-49 2,685 3,100 3,598 4,192 4,908 5,761
50-54 2,145 2,476 2,879 3,362 3,939 4,63655-59 1,664 1,926 2,242 2,625 3,084 3,63760-64 1,242 1,431 1,674 1,965 2,319 2,74765-69 863 999 1,167 1,379 1,636 1,95070-74 546 628 739 875 1,047 1,258
75+ 437 500 586 702 848 1,036
Source: IBRD Population and Human Resources Division.
TABLE 1.4
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS ASSUMINGNET REPRODUCTION RATE OF ONE BY 1995
(By 5 year intervals; thousands)
1975 1980 1985 i990 1995 2000
Total Population 79,309 90,563 101,535 111,682 120,180 128,072(July 1)
Males 40,940 46,758 52,439 57,696 62,103 66,191
Females 38,369 43,804 49,096 53,986 58,077 61,881
Crude Birth Rate(per thousand pop.) 47.8 41.0 34.8 28.9 22.5 22.8
Crude Death Rate(per thousand pop.) 19.2 16.2 13.8 11.9 10.4 9.7
Growth Rate (%) 2.86 2.48 2,10 1.70 1.21 1.31
Total Fertility Rate 6.575 5.585 4,596 3,606 2,617 2,525
Life Expectancy at Birth(in years)
Male 44.97 47.97 50.47 52.97 55.47 57.97
Female 44.50 47.50 50.00 52.50 55.00 57.50
Age Distribution(january 1)
Total 78,177 89,442 100,468 110,732 119,451 127,235
0- 4 14,167 15,628 15,512 14,868 13,434 12,5935- 9 11,453 13,189 14,717 14,742 14,250 12,97710-14 9,733 11,259 12,994 14,525 14,575 14,11115-19 8,264 9,522 11,046 12,777 14,314 14,39320-24 6,963 8,021 9,275 10,789 12,514 14,059
25-29 5,830 6,716 7,769 9,014 10,520 12,24430-34 4,856 5,599 6,480 7,526 8,765 10,26835-39 4,024 4,636 5,373 6,247 7,286 8,52140-44 3,304 3,811 4,417 5,145 6,011 7,04345-49 2,685 3,100 3,598 4,192 4,908 5,761
50-54 2,145 2,476 2,879 3,362 3,939 4,63655-59 1,664 1,926 2,242 2,625 3,084 3,63760-64 1,242 1,431 1,674 1,965 2,319 2,74765-69 863 999 1,167 1,379 1,636 1,95070-74 546 628 739 875 1,047 1,258
75+ 437 500 586 702 848 1,036
Source: IBRD Population and Human Resources Division.
TABLE 1.5
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS ASSUMINGNET REPRODUCTION RATE OF ONE BY 2000
(By 5 year intervals; thousands)
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2q00
Total Population 79,309 90,807 102,597 114,335 125,465 135,047(July 1)
Males 40,940 46,883 52,985 59,061 64,826 69,791Females 38,369 43,924 49,612 55,273 60,639 65,257
Crude Birth Rate(per thousand pop.) 47.8 42.2 37.2 32.5 27.5 21.9
Crude Death Rate(per thousand pop.) 19.2 16.4 14.1 12.3 10.7 9.4
Growth Rate (%) 2.86 2.58 2.31 2.02 1.68 1.24
Total Fertility Rate 6.575 5.765 4.955 4.145 3.335 2.525
Life Expectancy at Birth(in years)
Male 44.97 47.97 50.47 52.97 55.47 57.97Female 44.50 47.50 50.00 52.50 55.00 57.50
Age Distribution(January 1)
Total 78,177 89,636 101,414 113,180 124,410 134,207
0 - 4 14,167 15,822 16,279 16,415 16,028 14,7295 - 9 11,453 13,189 14,895 15,465 15,726 15,474
10 - 14 9,733 11,259 12,994 14,701 15,291 15,57315 - 19 8,264 9,522 11,046 12,777 14,487 15,10020 - 24 6,963 8,021 9,275 10,789 12,514 14,229
25 - 29 5,830 6,716 7,769 9,014 10,520 12,24430 - 34 4,856 5,599 6,480 7,526 8,765 10,26835 - 39 4,024 4,636 5,373 6,247 7,286 8,52140 - 44 3,304 3,811 4,417 5,145 6,011 7,04345 - 49 2,685 3,100 3,598 4,192 4,908 5,761
50 - 54 2,145 2,476 2,879 3,362 3,939 4,63655 - 59 1,664 1,928 2,242 2,625 3,084 3,63760 - 64 1,242 1,431 1,674 1,965 2,319 2,74765 - 69 863 999 1,167 1,379 1,636 1,95070 - 74 546 628 739 875 1,047 1,258
75+ 437 500 586 702 848 1,036
Source: IBRD Population and Human Resources Division.
TABLE 2.1
GRODSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT FACTOR COST
(Taka million; 1972/73 prices)
Sector 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/7Z4 1974/75 1975176 1976/77
Agriculture 31,836 30,401 27,146 27,220 30,307 29,701 32,627 33,U9
Industry 4,281 3,629 1,990 3,298 3,784 3,735 4,216 4,535
Large and Medium Scale (2,634) (2,377) (1,281) (2,096) (2,1429) (2,380) (2,712) (2,956)Small Scale (1,647) (1,252) (709) (1,202) (1,335) (1,355) (1,504) (1,597)
Construction 2,377 1,664 812 1,444 744 1,756 1,954 2,267
Power and Gas 124 114 73 185 259 265 316 348
Transport Services 2,399 2,224 1,860 2,399 2,615 2,615 2,955 3,132
Trade Services 3,864 3,641 3,117 3,513 3,924 3,924 4,289 4,503
Housing Services 2,293 2,357 2,357 2,360 2,426 2,494 2,594. 2,724
Public Administration 1,263 1,515 1,639 1,321 1,945 2,462 2,757 3,033
Banking and Insurance 258 279 301 328 338 349 392 431
Professional and Other Services 3,138 3,169 2,852 3,232 3,264 3,297 3,403 3,573
Total 51,833 48,993 42,147 45,300 49,606 50,598 55,503 57,685=uc:e == ====e .w-, *-aa_.__.
Note - Provisional estimates.
Source: Planning Commission.
TABLE 2.2
PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRDDUCT BY SECTOR
(at 1972/73 factor cost)
Sector 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1j973/74 197475; 1975/76 1976/77
Agriculture 61.4 62.1 64.4 60.1 61.1 58.7 58.8 57.4
Industry 8.3 7.4 4.7 7.3 7.6 7.4 7.6 7.9
Large and Medium Scale (5.1) (4.8) (3.0) (4.6) (4.9) (4.7) (4.9) (5.1)Small Scale (3.2) (2.6) (1.7) (2.7) (2.7) (2.7) (2.7) (2.8)
Construction 4.6 3.4 1.9 3.2 1.5 3.5 3.5 3.9
Power and Gas 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Transport Services 4.6 4.5 4.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.5
Trade Services 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.8
Housing Services 4.4 4.8 5.6 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7
Public Adoiinistration 2.4 3.1 3.9 2.9 3.9 4.9 5.0 5.3
Banking and Insurance 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Professional and Other Services 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.1 6.6 6.5 6.1 6.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 lOQ11S 100.0
Source: Planning Commission.
TABLE 3.1
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS -(Value figures in millions of US$)
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77Quantity Unit Quantity Unit Quantity Unit Quantity Unit Quantity Uhit(million) Price Value (million) Price Value (million) Price Value (million) Price Value (million) Price Value
Commwdities Unit (US$) -( (US$ _ us$$) __ (US$) -Raw Jute (bales) 2.83 44.50 126.0 2.66 46.60 124.0 1.55 55.50 86.0 2.35 52.00 121.3 2.20 52.00 114.4Jute Goods (tons) 0.41 436.60 179.0 0.44 440.90 194.0 0.38 560.50 213.0 0.437 416.00 182.0 0.46 392.00 180.3Tea (lbs.) 44.80 0.21 9.4 47.50 0.27 12.8 51.80 0.42 22.0 49.23 0.36 17.8 65.00 0.50 32.5Leather .. .. 15.8 .. .. 15.8 .. .. 26.0 *. .. 30.9 .. .. 30.0Fish and Shrimp .. .. 4.4 .. .. 7.9 .. .. 4.1 .. .. 11.8 .. .. 15.0other .. .. 5.6 .. .. 7.1 .. .. 6.9 .. .. 16.8 .. .. 28.0
Total .. .. 340.0 .. .. 361.6 .. .. 358.0 .. .. 380.6 .. .. 400.2
/a On the basis of export shipment.
Source: Planning Comidssion, Government of Bangladesh and IBRD.
TABLE 3.2
MERCHANDISE IMPORTS(Values in millions of US$)
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77Quantity Unit Quantity Unit Quantity Unit Quantity Unit Quantity Unit(million) Price Value (million) Price Value (million) Price Value (million) Price Value (million) Price Value_______ (US$) _ _ (US$) (_ (US) _ CUS$) _(SO
Commodities Unit
Consumer Goods
Foodgrains (tons) 2.78 115 320.8 1.67 199 332.9 2.29 238 544.1 1.47 249 366.2 0.71 17, 127.0Edible Oil (tons) .. .. .. 0.017 675 11.3 0.05 768 37.9 0.061 678 41.4 0.04 550 22.0Cotton Textiles (yards) .. .. .. 59.0 .. 18.5 .. .. 9.1 .. .. 15.8 .. .. 6.0
Intermediate Goods
Petroleum Products (tons) 0.13 44 5.7 0.731 86 63.1 0.45 126 56.6 0.404 126 51.1 .341 121 41.0Crude Petroleum (tons) 0.73 24 17.5 0.346 60 20.7 0.819 121 98.7 0.842 89 75.1 1.000 103 103.0Raw Cotton (bales) 0.32 175 41.8 0.142 333 47.3 0.20 331 66.2 0.183 244 44.6 0.163 350 57.0Cotton Yarn (bales) 0.04 309 13.6 0.069 627 43.3 0.007 800 5.6 0.003 1,000 2.8 0.002 1,200 2.0Fertilizer (tons) 0.24 117 28.0 0.147 143 21.0 0.23 374 86.1 0.358 246 88.1 0.07 128 9.0Cement (tons) 0.32 22 7.0 0.115 44 5.0 0.33 75 24.6 0.222 47 10.4 0.24 45 11.0
Capital Goods ., .. 100.0 .. .. 128.5 .. .. 135.0 .. .. 213.3 .. .. 268.0
Misc. Raw Materials & Other /bIntermediate & Consumer Goods .. .. 192.6 *- *- 233.4 .. .. 338.5 .. .. 356.9 .. .. 291.0
Total 727.0 925.0 1.402.4 1,265.7 937.0
a/ On the basis of shipment.b/ Includes imports of edible oil and cotton textiles.
Source: Government of Bangladesh Planning Commission and IBRD.
TABLE 3.3
IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE INDICES(1972/73 = 100)
1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
A. IMPORT PRICE INDICES
Foodgrains 160.9 207.0 216.5 153.0Edible Oil 149.1 157.8 139.3 113.0Petroleum Products 215.9 286.4 286.4 275.0Crude Petroleum 358.3 504.2 370.8 429.2Raw Cotton 76.0 189.1 139.4 200.0Cotton Yarn 178.6 258.9 323.6 388.3Fertilizer 161.5 319.7 210.3 109.4Cement 204.5 340.9 213.6 204.5Capital Goods 115.0 130.0 146.8 149.0Others 197.5 232.3 193.2 224.6
Weighted Average 156.9 215.4 195.8 188.8
B. EXPORT PRICE INDICES
Raw Jute 104.7 124.7 116.9 116.9Jute Goods 101.0 128.4 95.3 89.8Tea 128.6 200.0 171.4 238.1Others 122.2 158.9 132.1 153.6
Weighted Average 104.6 132.9 108.7 111.4
Note: The weights used are respective years' value in 1972/73 prices.
Source: Planning Commission and IBRD.
TABLE 3.4
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES AND OUTSTANDING COMMERCIAL & IMF BORROWINGS(million US$)
/aRESERVES/P-re COMMERCIAL & IMF BORROWINGS
lb Foreign IM FCash Securities- Total Banks Total Regular Compensatory Oil
Facility Financing Facility
- - - - - - - - - - End'of Period - - - - - - - - - - -
1973
/cI 10.8 197.5 208.3 n.a. 75.4 . 75.4-II 3.6 131.4 135.0 n.a. 75.6 .3 75.4III 31.6 134.9 166.5 n.a. 76.0 .6 75.4IV 5.0 144.3 149.3 n.a. 76.3 .9 75.4
1974
I 4.1 92.6 96.7 n.a. 76.8 1-4/d 75.4II 11.5 48.5 60.0 n.a. 112.6 3 7 .2L- 75.4III 6.0 34.1 40.1 n.a. 125.7 36.7 74.2 14.8IV 27.5 75.5 103.0 26.1 164.7 38.7 76.5 49.5
1975
I 23.0 184.0 207.0 22.9 181.7 39.5 78.0 64.2II 6.6 243.7 250.3 20.7 181.7 40.7 77.3 63.7
July 10.1 231.3 241.4 20.5 175.0 39.3 74.4 61.3August 4.1 200.2 204.2 20.5 174.5 39.2 74.2 61.1September 4.4 166.9 171.3 20.3 171.1 38.3 72.8 60.0
October 8.8 145.3 154.3 20.5 204.8 39.1 74.1 91.6November 3.3 138.7 142.0 - 202.3 38.6 73.2 90.5December 6.5 131.9 138.4 - 202.2 38.5 73.2 90.5
1976
January 3.2 165.0 168.2 - 249.8 86.4 73.1 90.3February 6.5 152,5 159.0 - 249.8 86.4 73.1 90.3March 2.5 146.5 149.0 - 247.2 85.5 72.3 89.4
April 19.6 142.8 162.4 20.5 237.0 85.2 62.9 88.9May 1.4 192.1 193.5 20.5 252.0 84.4 62.5 105.1June 4.0 209.2 213.2 20.4 252.9 84.8 62.7 105.4
July 16.3 215.1 231.4 20.4 268.8 109.5 53.8 105.5August 21.9 243.4 265.3 20.5 292.7 88.0 98.9 105.8September 8.6 245.5 254.1 20.6 283.2 86.4 90.4 106.4
October 4.3 251.2 255.5 20.8 282.7 86.3 90.2 106.2November 12.8 272.0 284.8 20.8 281.5 85.9 89.8 105.8December 5.7 283.0 288.7 20.8 275.3 86.7 81.7 106.9
1977
January 13.1 268.5 281.6 20.7 273.1 86.1 81.0 106.0February 45.1 233.7 278.8 20.8 274.0 87.0 81.3 106.3March 58.6 220.8 279.4 20.8 265.6 86.5 72.5 106.6
/a Quarterly average of end of month balances; end of month balances starting July 1975.
/b Includes Treasury Bills, Securities, IBRD Bonds and SDR holdings.
/c First drawn in December 1972.
/d Drawn in June 1974.
Source: Bangladesh Bank and IMF.
TABLE 3.5
SUMMARY OF EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE TO BANGLADESHDECEMBER 17, 1971 - JUNE 30, 1976
(million US$)
1971/1972 1972/1973 1973/1974 1974/1975 1975/76Type of Assistance Aid Disbursed Aid A Disbursed itd Disbursed Aid CommAid
Committed Conmite CommiDisursd Disbursed Committed Dibre
Food 145 103 250 121 180 300 460 379 257 307
Commodity 259 117 327 217 205 186 419 386 355 378
Project 187 7 396 82 202 154 406 145 318 129
Cash - - - - - - 14 14 - -
Total 591 227 973 420 587 640 1,299 924 -930 814
Source: Planning Commission.
04/23/77
TABLE j.1.SAMGLADESH
EXTFRNAL PUBLIC OE8T OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UMDISUWRSED AS OF JUN. 30. 1976
DEBT REPAYABLE IN FnlREIGN CUtRENCY AND GOODS(IN THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLARS)
D E B T 0 U T S T A N D I N GTYPE OF CREDITOR
CPFDITOf COUNTPY DISIURSED 3UNDISBURSED: TOTAL……-------------------- -- - - …---
SUPPL!FRS CREDITSFRANCF 2,028 3,246 5,274JAPAN, 6.267 - 6,267UNITED KINGnOM 14,274 - 14,274USSR 44,604 32,960 779,5YUGOSLAVIA 22.512 24,715 47,227
TOTAL SUPPLIPRS CRECITS 09,685 60,941 150,626
PRI VATF BANK CREDITSFRANCE - 8,333 8,333ST NfAP(RF 8,545 - 8,545UNITFO KlNGDCM 1,0S8 - 1,058
TOTAL PPIVATr PANK CREDITS 9,603 8,333 17,936
MULTILATFPAL LCANSASIolN nEv. BANK 25,047 111,495 136,542IBRD 54i,896 - 54,896InA 379,824 287,601 667,425
TOTAL MULTILAT!RAL LOANS 459,767 399,096 858,863
BILATEPAL LCANSAEL<Tllm 2,845 6,602 9,447BULGAFI A - 2,843 2,843CANAn' 18,583 - 18,583CZECHOSLOVAKIA 8,805 24,700 33,505DFP!mAQK 8,385 8,688 17,073F INLA4' 749 2,596 3,345F'ANCr- 2,028 11,579 13,607CFPNAN OFt'. PEP. - 17,813 17,813GFP MANY, FFn.RED. fOF 197,530 55,960 253,490HUNGARY - 10,000 10,000INDIA 71,615 47,114 118,729IPAN 612 11,888 12,500I RAQ 24,737 20,000 44,737JAP0 160,878 60,476 221,354w, I JWA I - 29,553 29,553Nf,ITHFRLANnS 20,227 18,158 38,385P L AND I,586 474 2,060L'OMANIA 9,472 48,113 s7,585SWF DEN 8,842 3,424 12,266SWITZERL6Or' 4,116 6,000 10,116TURKF Y - 3,095 3 095UNITFO ARAB rMIRATFS 50,000 - 50,000Lti4Trr) I INrCDCm 22,074 3,995 26,069IJT"TF ) (T6Tr, 575,933 69,501 6459434I Ssr 60,954 50,223 111,177
T'VTAL R'LA'PAL LCANS 1,249,971 512,795 1,762,766-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- -- -- -- ---- - - ---------
T-TI! -XT.-,AL Fus! ID rEnT 1,809,026 981,165 2,790,191,
NOTE - 'N'.LY ')ERAS hITI AN nRIGINAL OR EXTENDED MATURITY nF CVRt OWE YEFR ARE INCLUDED 10 rTIS rA LE.
_mgL _ - UT"_ AMux3 & ,M S Aurm?
04/23/77TABLE 4.2- BANGLADESH
PAGE ISERVICE PAYMENTS, CCPPITPENTS, CISPURSEMENTS AND OUTSTANDING AMOUNTS OF EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT
PQCJECTICNS PASE8 ON CEBT CUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNOIS8URSED AS OF JUN. 30, 1976
rEPT REPAYABLE IN FnPETGN CURRENCY AND GOODS(It THOUSANDS OF U.S. DOLLAOS)TCTAL
FISCAL : DEBT OUTSTANDING AT : T R A N S A C T I 0 N S D U R I N G P E R I 0 D OTHER CHANGES
YEAP : BEGINNING OF PERIOD :-- …-…- -… - -- - - - - - - -- - -- - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - -- -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- -- - - -- - - - - _ - - - - - - -
DISBURSFn : INCLUDING CCMMIT- : CISRUPSE- : S E P V I C E P A Y M E N T S CANCEL- : ADJUST-ONLY :UNOISBUPSED: MENTS : MENTS : …-------- : -- : LATIONS : NEWT *
I I PRINCIPAL : INTEREST : TOTAL(1 : (21 : (3) (4 : (5) (6) (7) is) (9)
1971/72 - - 111,954 15,326 - - - - 18,0061972/73 3t,335 129,960 437,357 83,147 - - - - 94,0131973/74 189,944 661,330 467,290 319,653 9,831 7,333 17,164 182 -13,6201974/75 496,825 1,104,987 989,605 528,369 24,947 10,143 35,090 1,497 345,8481975/76 1,349,601 2,413,59t 549,668 578,286 66,973 19,874 86,847 11,666 -94,8211976/77 1,809,026 2,790,194
* * * * * * THE FOLLCWING FIGURES ARE PROJECTED * * * * * *
1976/77 1,809,026 2,790,194 - 471,058 35,578 23,987 59,565 - -I1977/78 2,244,506 2,754,615 - 231,330 50,177 32,698 82,875 - 21978/79 2,425,665 2,704,440 - 127,428 64,014 37,948 101,962 - 31979/80 2,489,078 2,640,429 - 81,066 69,476 38,771 108,247 - -1980/81 2,500,671 2,570,953 - 39,079 57,456 39,013 96,949 - 41981/82 2,482,300 2,513,501 - 20,949 54,176 38,425 92,601 - 41982/83 2,449,077 2,455,325 - 5,604 59,093 37,192 94,285 - -1983/84 2,395,588 2,400,236 - 3,827 71,952 35,904 107,856 - -41984/85 2,327,459 2,328,280 - 821 78,395 36,320 114,715 - -21985/86 2,249,883 2,249,883 - - 84,708 35,580 120,288 - 21986/87 2,165,177 2,165,171 - - 83,863 33,602 117,465 - -41987/88 2,081,310 2,081,310 - - 80,356 33,640 113,990 - -51988/89 2,000,945 2,000,945 - - 75,551 31,777 107,328 - 21989/90 1,925,400 1,925,400 - - 72,113 31,851 103,964 - -1990/91 1,853,287 1,853,287 - - 65,503 30,359 95,862 - -41991/92 1,787,780 1,7e7,780 - - 63,503 29,020 92,523 - 419q?/93 1,7?4,281 1,724,281 - - 64,523 27,732 92,255 - 3
1993/94 19659,761 1,65S,761 - - 67,377 26,430 93,807 - -b1994/95 1,592,378 1,592,378 - - 70,794 25,115 95,909 - 51595/96 1,521,585 1,521,585 - - 73,235 23,779 97,014 - I
*THTS CCLIP4N SH')wS ThE APCUNT OF ARITHMETIC IMBALANCE IN THE AMfUNT OUTSTANDING INCLUDING UNDIS8URSEC FROH ONEYEAO TQ THE N XT. THE MnST CCPMCN CAUSES OF IMBALANCES ARE CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATES AND TRANSFER OF DEBTS
FROM 0Nr CATrCORY TO ANDTHF IN TNE TABLE. COLUMN ALSO INCLUDES PRE-INDEPENDENCE LIABILITIES ACCEPTBD BY LAJoL -
AS FOLLOWS: $23.3 MIllION IN 1971/72, $54.8 MILLION IN 1972/73, AND $343.0 MILLION IN 1974/75. UTXRT LOL
ZECM C ALNSIB & ftWuCTS DIWARUW
TABLE 5.1
SUMMARY OF CENITRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCE(Taka million)
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77Budget Revised Budgtet Revised Budget Revised Budget Revised Budget
Revenue 2,916 2,236 4,113 3.939 5,594 6.837 7,554 8,826 9,823of whichTax Revenue 2,684 1,866 3,459 3,091 4,558 5,479 5,965 6,718 7,675Non-Tax Revenue 231 370 654 848a/ 1,036 1,358 1,589 2,108 2,148
Current Expenditures 2.184 2.914 2.953 4.425a/ 4,908 5.655 5,992 6,837 7,679of which Food Subsidy - 783 - 963 600 916 1,006 1,006 840
Current Surplus(+) or Deficit(-) 732 -678 1,160 -486 686 1,182 1.562 1.989 2,144
Development Expenditures-/ 5.010 3,978 5,253 3 050S/ 5.250 3 932e 9,500 8, 5 0 0 e/ 12 220f/Agriculture, Rural Devel. & Water 1,792 1,350 1,600 .. 1,615 .. 2,990 .. 3,630-Industries 366 294 790 .. 710 .. 1,360 .. 2,460Transport, Communication & Power 1,431 1,157 1,678 .. 1,685 .. 3,105 .. 3,950Physical Planning & Housings/ 299 307 410 .. 480 .. 945 .. 870Social Sectorsd/ 1,122 870 775 .. 660 .. 1,100 .. 1,310
Overall Deficit(-) -4.278 -4.656 -4,093 -3,536 -4,564 -2.750 -7,938 -6,511 -9,26o
Financed by:
Capital Receipts (net) -82 640 387 60 306 -1,256 941 -778 107Deficit Financing 610 833 186 496 318 996 - 999 -Foreign Grants & Loans 3,750 3,183 3,520 2,980 3,940 3,010 7,000 6,290 9,153
of whichFood Aid (1,050) (n.a.) (630) (750) (1,040) (n.a.) (1,350) (n.a.) (n.a.)Commodity Aid ( (1,600) (1,320) (1,630) (n.a.) (3,650) (n.a.) (n.a.)Project Aid ( (2,700) (n.a.) (1,200) (910) (1,270) (n.a.) (2,000) (n.a.) (n.a.)
Note - The Railway budget has been included in Central Government budget's current revenue and expenditure from 1974/75onwards. Also, beginning 1974/75, the central budget includes estimates for food subsidies.
a/ Include the Railway receipts and payments (comparable to the following years).b/ Including Reconstruction and Rehabilitation expenditures for 1972/73 and 1973/74. Reported actual for 1972/73 is Tk. 2,131 million.c/ Includes expenditures on Cyclone Reconstruction.d/ Includes Health, Education, Population, Planning, Manpower & Employment and Social Welfare.e/ The breakdown is not available.f/ Realizable expenditure is estimated at Tk. 11,404 million; this is the figure used to derive the overall deficit.
Source: Ministry of Fimance, the National Board of Revenue and the Planning Commission.
TABLE& 5.2
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT REVENUE(Taka million) Revised
Actual Actual Actual- Budget Budget1972/73 E 1973/74 1974/75 7 1975/76 IL 1976/77 1
TAX REVENUE 1.865 83.4 3.091 78.5 5.479 80.1 t.718 76.1 7.675 78.1
Production, Consumptionand Distribution Taxes 1,601 71.6 2.611 66.3 4,288 62.7 5,730 64.9 6,498 66.2
Custom Duties (697) (31.2) (1,187) (30.1) (1,815) (26.5) (2,602) (29.5) (3,130) (31.9)import Licence Tax a/Excise Duties (550) (24.6) ( 836) (11.2) (1,503) (22.1) (1,780) (20.2) (2,000) (20.4)
Sales Taxes (214) (19.6) ( 434) (11.0) ( 619) ( 9.1) (1,105) (12.5) (1,135) (11.6)Stamps ( 98) ( 4.4) ( 112) ( 2.8) ( 270) ( 3.9) ( 170) ( 1.9) ( 160) ( 1.6)Motor Vehicle Taxes ( 13) ( 0.6) ( 17) ( 0.5) ( 17) ( 0.2) ( 12) ( 0.1) ( 13) ( 0.1)Entertainment Taxes ( 29) ( 1.3) ( 25) (0.7) ( 64) ( 0.9) ( 60) (0.7) ( 60) (0.6)
Taxes on Income 141 6.3 332 8.4 677 9.9 804 9.1 919 9.3
Individual (136) ( 6.1) ( 327) ( 8.2) ( 614) (9.0) ( 502) ( 6.8) ( 661) ( 6.7)Company ( 3) (0.1) ( 9) (0.2) ( 62) (0.9) ( 201) (2.3) ( 216) (2.2)Agriculture b/ ( 2) (0.1) ( 1) (-) ( 1) (-) ( 1) (-) ( 42) (0.4)
Land Revenue c/ 25 1.1 55 1.4 87 1.3 106 1.3 65 0.7
Other Taxes and Duties d/ 98 4.4 93 2.4 427 6.2 68 0.8 190 Lh 1.9
NON-TAX REVENUE 370 16.6 848 21.5 1.358 19.9 2.108 23.9 2.148 21.9
Nationalized Sector 191 8.6 87 2.2 127 1.9 352 4.0 248 2.5
Industries 1 - ( 30) (0.8) ( 99) (1.4) ( 73) (0.8) ( 73) (0.7)Banks ( 57) (1.4) ( 28)L& (0.5) ( 261) ( 3.0)- ( 153) (1.6)Other Public Sector e/ - - ( - ) (- ) ( - ) ( - ) ( 18) ( 0.2) ( 22) (0.2)
Interest Receipts 7 0.3 107 2.7 169 2.5 736 8.4 793 8.1Registration Fees 32 1.5 45 1.1 110 1.6 100 1.1 80 0.8
Forest 14 0.6 35 0.9 47 0.7 45 0.5 45 0.5Railways 309 7.8 396 5.8 307 3.5 581 6.0Post Office, Telephone
and Telegraph (Net) -28 -1.3 18 0.5 -5 -0.1 19 0.2 69 0.7Other f/ 154 6.9 247 6.3 514 7.5 549 6.2 322 3.3
TOTAL CURRENT REVENUE 2.235 100.0 3.939 100.0 6.837 100.0 8.826 100.0 9.823 100.0
a/ Tax was imposed in June 1974 and abolished in May 1975.h/ The moratorium on collection of agricultural income tax which was imposed in FY74 for two years was extended for another year in
FY76. Collections shown are arrears in payment.c; Tax levied on land holdings. It was virtually abolished in FY74 together with the imposition of the moratorium on agricultural
income tax but reinstated in 1976/77; the exemption from the tax was extended to holdings up to 8.3 acres (25 bighas).d/ Include electricity duties, estate duty on agricultural land, taxes on isnmovable property, gift taxes, capital gain tax, jute
tux (abolished in May 1975), toll taxes, betterment tax on commercial establishments and other levies.e/ Includes receipts of nationalized insurances, other industrial operations and disinvestment of Industrial units. For 1973/74
these are included under "Industries" above. Budget speech summary tables include these items in "Other Revenue" and not inthe '"ationalised Sectors."
f/ Receipts of various Government departments, especially under civil works, education and health.i/ Included under Industriesh/ Includes effedts of new tax measures.
Source. Ministry of Finance.
TABLE 5.3
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT EXPENDITURE(Taka million)
Actual Actual Revised Budget Budget Revised Budget Budget1972/73 % 1973/74 % 1974/75 % 1975/76 % 1975/76 7/ 1976/77 7/
General Services 1,268 43.5 1.808 40.9 2.315 40.9 2.253 37.6 3,196 46.7 3,471 45.2General Administration 730 25.1 863 19.5 968 17.2 738 12.3 1,095 16.0 1,155 15.0Justice and Police 310 10.6 495 11.2 598 10.5 724 12.1 616 9.0 723 9.4Defense 203 7.0 421 9.5 710 12.5 752 12.5 1,447 21.1 1,551 20.2Scientific Departments 25 0.8 29 0.7 39 0.7 39 0.7 38 0.6 42 0.6
Social Services 584 20.0 821 18.5 1.025 18.1 .1182 19.7 1,225 18.0 1,347 17.5Education 451 15.5 649 14.7 622 14.5 §97 15.0 930 13.6 1,020 13.3Health 118 4.0 153 3.4 181 3.2 258 4.3 243 3.6 273 3.5Social Welfare 15 0.5 19 0.4 22 0.4 27 0.4 52 0.8 54 0.7
Economic Services 145 5.0 371 8.4 706 12.5 423 7.1 464 6.8 514 6.7Agriculture 58 2.0 97 2.2 114 2.0 121 2.0 117 1.7 117 1.5Manufacturing andConstruction 5 0.2 110 2.5 326 5.8 138 2.3 160 2.3 179 2.3
Transport andCommmication 82 2.8 164 3.7 258 4.7 164 2.8 187 2.8 218 2.9
Debt Service 134 4.6 183 4.1 313 5.5 389 6.5 438 6.4 526 6.9
Food Subsidy 783 26.9 963 21.8 916 16.2 1,006 16.8 1,006 14.7 840 10.9
Railways . . 279 6.3 380 6.8 439 7.3 508 7.4 581 7.6
Contingency - - - - - - 300 5.0 - - 400 5.2
TOTAL CURRENT EXPENDITURE 2,914 100.0 4.425 100.0 5,655 100.0 5,992 100.0 6,837 100.0 7.679 100.0
Source: Ministry of Finance.
TABLE 5.4
PUBLIC DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES BY SECTOR(Taka million)
Revised Revised Revised RevisedBudget Budget Budget Budget Budget1972/73 % 1973/74 % 1974/75 % 1975/76 % 1976/77 %7
Agriculture, Rural Development& Water 1,350 33.9 1,579 34.0 1,784 34.0 2,990 31.5 3,625 29.7
Agriculture (576) (12.4) (639) (12.2) (1,150) (12.1) (1,635) (13.4)Rural Development -- (306) (6.6) (285) (5.4) (480) (5.1) (490) (4.0)Water and Flood Control - (697) (15.0) (860) (16.4) (1,360) (14.3) (1,500) (7.3)
Industry 294 7.4 525 11.3 650 12.3 1,360 14.3 2,460 20.1
Power, Scientific Research )and Natural Resources ) 537 11.6 712 13.6 1,510 15.9 1,888 15.5
Transport ) 965 20.9 812 15.7 1,250 13.2 1,646 13.5) 1,157 29.1Coimmnication ) 131 2.8z 186 3.5 345 3.6 419 3.4
Physical Planningand Housing 307 7.7 233 5.0 340 6.5 660 7.0 814 6.6
Education and Tr-aining ) 307 6.6 288 5.5 450 4.7 555 4.5
Health ) 207 4.5 218 4.0 330 3.5 377 3.1
Population Planning ) 50 1.1 77 1.5 250 2.6 294 2.4- ~ ~ ) 870 21.9Social Welfare ) 21 0.5 20 0.4 40 0.4 40 0.3
Manpower and Employment ) 3 - 13 0.2 30 0.3 42 0.3
Cyclone Reconstruction 80 1.7 150 2.8 285 3.0 70 0.6
TOTAL DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURE 3,978 100.0 4,638 100.0 5.250 100.0 9.500 100.0 12.220 100.0
Note - Reported Actual expenditures are: Tk. 2,131 million for 1972/73, Tk. 3,050 million for 1973/74 and Tk. 3,932 million for 1974/75sTk. 8,500 million is the revised estimate for 1975/76. Realizable expenditures in 1976/77 are estimated in the Budget atTk. 11,404 million. Sectoral breakdowns-are not available.
Source: Ministry of Finance.
TABLE 6.1MGNEY AND QUASI4(ONEY
(Taka million)
Currency Demand Money Index of Time Totalwith the Deposits Supply Money Supply DepositsPublic (Dec. 1971-100)
Dec. , 1969 2.210 1,460 3,670 95 1,346 5,016
Dec. , 1970 2,590 1,700 4,290 111 1,662 5,952
Dec. 17, 1971 2,066 1,809 3,875 100 1,585 5,460
June 30, 1972 1,756 3,101 4,857 125 2,135 6,992
Dec. 29, 1972 2,898 3,897 6,795 175 2,546 9,341
June 29, 1973 2,864 4,096 6,960 180 2,931 9,891
Dec. 28, 1973 3,208 4,871 8,079 208 3,445 11,524
June 28, 1974 3,311 4,856 8,167 211 3,998 12,165
Dec. 24, 1974 4,028 5,350 9,378 242 4,305 13,683
Jan. 31, 1975 3,986 5,165 9,151 236 4,567 13,718
Feb. 28, 1975 3,992 4,962 8,954 231 4,918 13,872
Mar. 28, 1975 3,952 4,945 8,896 230 4,814 13,710
Apr. 25, 1975 2,691 4,732 7,423 192 4,501 11,924
May 30, 1975 2,945 4,962 7,907 204 4,879 12,786
June 27, 1975 2,931 5,214 8,145 210 4,732 12,877
July 25, 1975 2,839 5,258 8,096 209 4,867 12,963
Aug. 29, 1975 2,761 5,030 7,791 201 4,508 12,299
Sept. 26, 1975 2,924 4,940 7,864 203 4,451 12,315
Oct. 31, 1975 3,290 5,232 8,522 220 4,398 12,920
Nov. 28, 1975 3,322 5,241 8,563 221 4,655 13,218
Dec. 26, 1975 3,781 5,543 9,324 241 4,751 14,075
Jan. 30, 1976 3,706 5,646 9,352 241 4,849 14,201
Feb. 27, 1976 3,622 5,839 9,461 244 5,086 14,547
Mar. 25, 1976 3,523 5,773 9,296 240 5,004 14,300
Apr. 30, 1976 3,514 5,433 8,947 231 5,263 14,210
May 28, 1976 3,419 5,556 8,975 232 5,338 14,313
June 25, 1976 3,380 5,631 9,011 232 5,369 14,380
July 30, 1976 3,356 5,754 9,110 235 5,564 14,674
Aug. 27, 1976 3,422 5,607 9,029 233 5,882 14,911
Sept.23, 1976 3,837 5,623 9,460 244 5,676 15,136
Oct. 29, 1976 3,739 5,791 9,530 246 6,147 15,677
Nov. 30, 1976 4,084 5,947 10,031 259 6,054 16,085
Dec. 30, 1976 3,874 6,826 10,70n 276 6,908 17,608
Notes - Provisional Figures:
Excluding inter-bank items.
Including deposits with Bangladesh Krishi Bank and Bangladesh Shilpa Bank.
Savings Deposits have been broken, down and are included in demand and time deposits
according to their terms.
Source: Bangladesh Bank.
TABLE 6.2
CHANGES IN DOMESTIC LIQUIDITY
(Taka Million)
1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 …- - - -- - -1975/76---- 1976/77Dec. 71- July 72- July 73- July 74- July-Sept. Oct-Dec. Jan.-March April-June July 1975- July-Sept. Cct.-De.
June 72 June 73 June 74 June 75 1975 1975 1976 1976 June 1976 1976 1976
Money Supply 982 2,103 1,207 -22 -282 1,461 -27 -287 866 450 -721
Currency with the Public (-310) (1,108) ( 447) ( -381) ( -8) ( 858) ( -256) ( -145) ( 449) ( 458) (354)
Demand Deposits (1,292) ( 995) ( 760) ( 359) ( -274) ( 603) ( 229) ( -142) ( 417) ( -8) (-1,075)
Time Deposits 550 796 1,067 734 -281 300 254 365 637 307 143
Total Domestic Liquidity 1,532 2,899 2,274 712 -563 1,761 227 78 1,503 757 -578
Domestic Credit 1.034 2.814 3.302 1.501 535 1.379 362 -7 2.268 606 -237
Public Sector 1,500 3,004 2,775 1,548 288 1,195 276 -91 1,668 151 -402
Government/a ( 824) (1,291) (1,723) ( 229) (-230) ( 540) ( 389) ( nil) ( 699) ( 238) (45)
Natioralized Industries/b ( 600) (1,624) ( 789) ( 906) ( 602) ( 654) (-122) ( -84) (1,050) ( 44) (-425)
other1c ( 76) ( 89) ( 263) ( 413) ( -84) ( 1) ( 9) (-7) (-81) (-43) (-22)
Private Sector -466 -190 527 -47 247 184 86 84 600 455 165
Foreign Sector 1.258 -188 -832 1.098 -882 -399 155 -53 -1.179 229 85
Other /d -760 273 -196 -1.887/e -216 781 290 139 414 -78 -426
Note - Provisional Figures.7a Investments of Bangladesh Bank and scheduled banks in government securities treasury bills, other government
borrowings from Bangladesh Bank, borrowings by Food Department from the banking system, treasury advancesand Government currency liability.
b Scheduled bank's credit to public sector, including Bangladesh Bank's iuvestment in debentures of Jute IndustriesCorporation (Tk. 100 million in 1973/74 and Tk. 60 million in 1974/75).
/c Scheduled bank's investments in autonomous and semi-autonomous organizaticns.7d Includes quantitatively unidentified elements mainly as a result of incomplete reporting by the scheduled banks./e Includes effects of demuonetization and devaluation.
Source: Bangladesh Bank.
TABLE 6.3 LA 5/IESCEEDULED BANKS - SELECTED ASSETS AND LIABIUTIES -
(Taka million)
______ ______ _____ ______ _____1971172 1972173 1 7/41974175 1975/76 19767December June 30, December June 29, December June 28, September Decenber Mareh Jiue 27, Sept.26, December March June Sept. January
Asset or Liability 17. 1971 1972 29, 1972 1973 28, 1973 1974 27, 1974 24, 1974 2&, 1975 1975 1975 26. 1975 25. 1976 25, 7976 23, 1976 2a. 1917
Deposits 3,394.2 5,236.1 6,443.4 7,026.7 8,316.1 8,853.9 8,952.3 9,655.3 9,758.7 9,945.8 9,390.8 10,293.9 10,770.0 10,999.9 11,298.8 12,780
Deand Deposits 1,809.0 3,101.0 3,896.8 4,095.9 4,871.5 4,856.4 4,712.9 5,350.0 4,944.7 5,214.1 4,940.1 5,543.5 5,772.8 5,630.9 5,622.7 5,837Time Deposits 1,585.2 2,135.1 2;546.6 2,930.8 3,444.6 3,997.5 4,239.4 4,305.3 4,814.0 4,731.7 4,450.7 4,750.4 5,004.2 5,369.0 5,676.1 6,943
Borrovings freoa ngladesh Bark 669.0 391.1 405.8 468.5 624.9 947.4 1,303.1 1,701.5 1,235.3 1,155.4 1,438.0 1,863.1 1,623.4 756.1 754.4 963
Cash in TillS 45.6 356.1 150.5 189.6 161.9 211.4 185.2 221.1 238.0 224.5 222.9 274.9 279.7 250.1 259.0 2S8
Balances Lit Bangladesh Bank 170.1 1,032.2 390.1 658.4 657.2 666.7 573.5 682.1 794.1 773.4 611.3 695.6 741.2 682.6 740.9 8DB
Advances nd Bills Purchased t1. 4,251.7 4,266.1 3,542.7 6,125.5 7,425.6 8,169.3 8,864.2 9,628.8 9,084.3 8,704.1 9,364.0 10.473.3 11,345.1 10,654.8 10,922.9 12.306
Invetment in CovernmentSecurities 232.9 283.0 1,208.8 1,099.9 1,376.4 1,334.9 1,315.2 1,332.8 1,333.5 1,534.6 1,447.2 1,536.3 1,647.9 1670.6 1,604.6 2,127
Othe Investments 195.2 270.7 322.0 359.7 420.0 522.8 786.3 790.1 915.0 875.5 777.5 778.3 793.4 831.6 1,061.7 862
Frcess ReerveaL -10.9 759.4 52.4 288.7 223.4 206.5 103.0 182.6 285.5 255.0 121.8 156.4 177.9 101.4 144.7 128
bTae chedtled bnks. include the six ntioalized coarciel bnks, the three foreign banks, Bangladesh Erishi Bank nd Bangladesh Shilpa Bank.Inecludig credit to nationalized enterprises.
aShe ere the echeduled banks' balances with Bangladesh Bmak minus the in,nt of statutory cah balances. All scheduled banks have to naintain a coopulsory cash reserveratio, at precant eamutins to 5 perccnt of dAed tie and saving. liabilities (Including inter-bank). In addition the scheduled banks are required to maintain aprescribed liquidity ratio, now 25 pereant (the One of balances witb Bangladesh Bank snd Snuali Bask, ceah in tille, and holdings of nencabered Govenrnt-srsnteed*scuritiee as a proportion of the sun of demand, ticD and savings liabilities). These ratios bave not bean changed since independence.
Source: Bangladesh Bank, Selected Economic Indicators.
TABLE 6.4
DISTRIBUTION OF BAIK DEPOSITS
(End of Mouth, Tak. illion)
Daeember 1974 marob 1975 Jume 1975 September 1975 Deneeber 1975 March 1976 Aune 1976 Septeber 1976Deoneitor ~10at_ Maount Aj1 J T Aanct % A.sut Ansot % A-set TiPsbljc S ctor 3.724 3.8 4,137 h3.1 4.446 4 7 3,78 39.9 4.733 42.1 4.524 42.4 4.895 42.2 4.584 40.8
Ovnseent 552 5.6 53. 5.6 520 5.1 h76 5.O 634 5.6 572 5.4 542 4.7 568 5.1
Nsm-lnnswisl Enterpriaes 2,028 20.6 2,386 24.8 2,720 26.7 2,182 23.0 2,846 25.3 2,520 23.6 2,817 24.3 2,635 23.5
I.timelsed Corporatioan (919) (9.3) (1,229) (12.8) (1,391) (13.6) (9b8) (10.0) (1,371) (12.2) (1.228) (11.5) (1.129) (9.7) (1,213) (10.8)Othebr (1,109) (11.3) (1,157) (12.0) (1 329) (13.1) (1,234) (13.0) (1,474) (13.1) (1,291) (12.1) (1,688) (14.6) (1,422) (12.7)
h.tonoms and Sadi-.tonowns bodice 641 6.5 698 7.3 71h 7.0 651 6.9 717 6.4 862 8.1 964 8.3 790 7.0
Lec.l Authoritiea 312 1.2 130 1.3 128 1.3 128 1.3 148 1.3 152 1.4 162 1.4 129 1.1
Finane,i. IBetitotiO5B(exeludi sebeduled and Co-opartie Banks) 309 3.1 323 3.1 308 3.0 283 3.0 288 2 6 323 3.0 330 2.8 388 3.4
Otb r 80 0.8 66 0.7 56 o.6 69 0.7 100 0.9 95 0.9 81 0.7 75 0.7
Priute Sector 5.8 3 5.191 6.279 5.8 5.892 55.2 6.425 55.4 6.378 56.7
Agriculture, forest.7, Ranting and Piabi. 15 0.5 4b 0.5 58 o.6 48 o.5 61 0.5 55 0.5 49 0.4 65 0.6
Ylning ed Q%uaryn 16 0.2 18 0.2 18 0.2 20 0.2 - - 2 - - _
Kefetering 243 2.5 182 1.9 228 2.2 191 2.1 227 2.0 200 1.9 182 1.6 167 1.5
Construction ccpaniee 50 0.5 42 O.b 51 0.5 29 0.5 50 0 4 51 0.5 77 0.7 78 0.7
Kletricity, Gas, Vater aod Smnitary service. 13 0.1 17 0.2 24 0.2 29 0.3 30 0.3 28 0.3 35 0.3 33 0.3C -rce 728 7.6 612 6.2 629 6.2 605 6.4 809 7.2 739 6.9 938 8.1 770 6.8
Traport, Storage and Cnication 21 0.2 17 0.2 2L 0.2 21 0.2 24 0.2 24 0.2 22 0.2 25 0.2
Truet Funds and ou-profit orgenizations 135 i.4 139 1.1 1L8 1.5 132 1.4 135 1.2 143 1.3 151 1.3 158 1.4
Persawl 3,157 32.0 2,976 31.0 2,910 28.6 3,019 31.8 3,391 30.1 3,367 31.5 3.724 32.1 3,896 34.7
otusu 1,113 2L.3 l,l.1. U.9 i,400 13.7 1,391 S1 .6 1,553 13.8 1,283 12.0 1,248 10.8 1,186 10.5
mK n_____G_U_tw__ Z27 2.9 269 2.8 246 2.1 203 2.1 234 2.1 262 2,5 274 2.4 278 2.5
Total Depoits 9,852 100.0 9,597 102.0 10,182 100.0 9,497 100.0 11,245 100.0 10.678 100.0 11.594 100.0 11.240 100.0
note - The table covers the sic nationslied banka, three epecialined banke (Bangladesh Erlaho Bank, Bngledeah Sbilpe Beak and Bangladesh Jatiya Saunbaya Bank) and the foreign bank,.
SBsrct, Bang.ladeh Bank.
TABLE 6.5
BANK CREDIT BY SECTOR
(End of Month, Take million)
Sectors Deceor 1974 Ihreh 1975 Jne 1975 br S e 15 Deeebr 1975 March 1976 June 1976 Se.tenber 1976ADoUn ^ s ou t Aot A=ount Amnt tX m.. tnt t . Aoount t
Advances - Public Sector L!&3Z 56.2 S,276 56.8 5.112 55.4 5.493 556,031 5.6 6,035 53 2 5,832 53.9 5.885 54.5
3o0versant 938 9.7 775 8.3 641 6.9 321 3.3 380 3 5 623 5 5 339 3 1 374 3.5
3.-.Mea±-a htterprisw 4,254 43.8 4,189 45.1' 4,170 45.2 4,888 49.4 5,368 49.5 5,147 45 4 5,234 48 4 5,132 47.5
fUan..lid Corporation (3,375) (34.8) (3,428) (36.9) (3,755) (410.7) (4,354) (44.o) (4,759) (43.9) (4,574) (40 3) (4,667) (43 2) (4,619) (42.7)Otsrs (879) (9.0) (761) (8.2) (L15) '(5.5) (534) (5.bs) (609) (5.6) (573) (5 1) (567) (5 2) (513) (4.8)
Dntornone & Semi-Antonoous Bodies 154 1.6 227 2.5 214 2.3 188 1.9 186 1.7 176 1.S 165 1.5 147 1.4
I,ocal Authorities 4 - 5 - 7 0.1 4 - 5 * 5 - 5 - 8 0.1
Financial Institutions (ExcludingSchedled & Co-operati e Banks) 7 0.1 1 - 2 - 3 - 2 - 7 0.1 4 - 5 -
Others 102 1.0 79 0.9 78 0.9 86 0.9 90 0.8 78 0 7 85 0.8 221 2.0
Advances - Private Sector 3.111 32.1 3 32.9 3.011 32.6 3.141 31.8 3.163 29.1 3.520 31 0 3.546 32.8 3,845 35.5
Agricultrre, Forestry, Runting &Pishing 636 6.6 628 6.8 710 7.7 716 7.2 699 6.4 621 5.5 717 6 6 711 6.6
Midning & Quarying _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Manufacturing 594 6.1 571 6.2 597 6.5 687 7.0 663 6.1 821 7 2 878 8.1 870 8.0
ConstructiD Conpdies 54 0.6 53 0.6 44 0.5 33 0.3 33 0 3 35 0 3 39 0 4 49 0.5
lectrielty, Gmn, Water and SanitaryServices 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 2 - - 2 -
Coerce 898 9.2 855 9.2 757 8.2 760 7.7 932 8.6 987 8 7 864 8 0 1,155 10.7
Transport, Storage and Counications 111. 1.2 125 1.3 152 1.6 152 1.5 143 1.3 156 1 4 153 1 4 147 1.4
Trsst f9nds and 8cm-Profit Organizations 3 - 1 - 2 - I - I - I - I - I -
Personal 326 3.4 305 3.3 296 3.2 311 3.2 301 2.8 379 3.3 358 3.3 318 2.8
Others 485 5.0 513 5.5 452 1..9 480 4.9 289 2.7 517 4 6 535 5 0 594 5.5
Total Advances 8.570 88.3 8.329 89.7 8.123 88.0 8.635 87.3 9.194 84 7 9.554 84 3 9.378 86 7 9,730 90.0
Bills Purchased and Discounted 1.138 11.7 959 10.3 1.107 12.0 1.253 12.7 1.656 15.3 1.784 15.7 1,435 13 3 1,079 10.0
Total Bank Credit 9.708 100.0 9.288 100.0 9.230 100.0 9.888 100.0 10.850 10.0 11,338 100 0 10 100 0 189 100.0
Souro. Bngladesh Bn8.
TABLE 6.6
BANK CREDIT BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
(End of Month; Taka million)
Decem ber 1 ...E 1.97. June 15 Se1teJber 975 December 1975 March 1976 June 1976 Septeaer 1976Economic Activity Amonont A moun t Amo unt % Amount 7mount % Amount 1 ___t_
Advances 8.570 88.3 8.29 89.7' 8.123 88.0 8 635 87.3 9.194 84.7 9,554 84.3 9.378 86.7 9.730 90.0
Agriculture, Htating, Forestryand Fishing 768 7.9 809 8.7 874 9.5 866 8.8 902 8.3 901 8.0 1,011 9.4 953 8.8
Mining and Quarrying 9 0.1 6 0.1 6 0.1 9 0.1 8 0.1 9 0.1 7 0.1 7 0.1
Kanufacturing 4,242 43.7 4,191 45.1 4,255 46.1 4,690 47.4 4,780 45.9 5,071 44.7 4,570 42.3 4,724 43.7
Construction 56 o.6 61 0.7 62 0.7 60 o.6 60 0.6 64 0.6 65 0.6 66 0.6
Electricity, Gas, Water andSanitary Services 13 0.1 10 0.1 8 0.1 5 0.1 10 0.1 6 - 6 - 5 -
Wholesale & Retail Trade andRestaurants & Hotels 2,396 24.7 2,194 23.6 1,916 20.7 2,029 20.3 2,282 21.0 2,372 20.9 2,579 23.9 2,706 25.0
Financing, Insurance, RealEstate and Business Services 354 3.6 266 2.9 241 2.6 241 2.4 196 1.8 232 2.0 180 1.7 164 1.5
Transport, Storage andCouaunication 361 3.7 371 4.O 373 4.° 393 3.6 469 4d1 504 4.6 412 3.8
Cowunity, Social and PersonalServices 238 2.5 282 3.0 263 2.9 273 2.8 263 2.4 325 2.9 304 2.8 451 4.2
Employees and Activities notadequately described 133 1.4 139 1.5 125 1.3 92 0.9 100 0.9 105 0.9 153 1.4 243 2.3
Bills Purch4sed and Discounted 1.138 11.7 959 10.3 1.107 12.0 1.253 12.7 1.656 15.3 1.784 15.7 1.435 13.3 1,079 10.0
ToalBakt9.708 100.0 928 100.0 _ l o 100.0 9810,850 100.0 11,338 100.0 10,813 100.0 1080 100.0
Source: Bangladeah Bank.
TABLE 6.7
BILLS PURCHASED AND DISCOUNTED(End of Month; Taka million)
December 1974 March 1975 June 1975 September 1975 December 1975 March 1976 June 1976 SeTptember 1976Economic Activity & > o A Amount 7 Amount 7 . Amount % Amount %
Agriculture and Other PrimaryYroducti s a41 2.6 36 3-8 4 .2 .4 6.7 71 4.0 32 2.1 28 2.5
Raw Jute 34 3.0 18 1.9 24 2.1 32 2.6 40 2.4 63 3.5 18 1.2 9 0.8
Tea - - 9 1.0 6 0.5 - - - - 1 - - - - -
Fish 5 0.4 1 0.1 1 0.1 6 0.5 19 1.2 - - 2 0.2 8 0.7
Hides & Skins 2 0.2 8 0.8 16 1.5 17 1.3 51 3.1 7 0.5 11 0.7 11 1.0
Manufactures 144 12.6 144 15.0 120 10.9 130 10.4 185 11.1 81 4.5 94 6.6 67 6.2
Jute 126 11.0 128 13.3 1014 9.5 109 8.7 165 10.0 57 3.2 44 3.1 21 2.0
Others 18 1.6 16 1.7 16 1.4 21 1.7 20 1.1 24 1.3 50 3.5 46 4.2
Commerce & Trade 872 7 770 80.3 923 83. 4 1.056 84.2 1.343 81.1 1,622 91.0 1.272 88.7 880 81.6
Export Bills 537 47.2 408 42.5 492 44.4 483 38.5 735 44.4 937 52.6 932 65.0 605 56.1
Import Bills 287 25.2 319 33.3 399 36.1 525 41.9 564 34.0 633 35.5 304 21.2 229 21.2
Inland Bills 48 4.3 43 4.5 32 2.9 48 3.8 44 2.7 52 2.9 36 2.5 47 4.3
Others 83 7.1 2 0-9 1.5 13 :. 18 1.1 9 0.5 37 2.6 105 9.7
Grand Total 100.0 100.0 I1_07 100.0 1. 100 1,656 100.0 1 783 100.0 1.435 100.0 1,079 100.0
Source: Bangladesh Bank.
TABLE 6.8NUMBER OF BRANCHES OF BANKS
(June 1972 - Jan. 1977)
June 30, June 30, June 30, January June 30, January Jane 30, January1972 1973 1974 31, 1975 1975 31, 1976 1976 31, 1977
Nationalized Banks
Sonali Bank 269 287 338 359 373 396 413 445Janata Bank 249 272 292 312 312 322 345 377Agrani Bank 245 258 285 290 295 306 313 351Rupali Bank 159 180 202 210 213 228 245 258Pubali Bank 99 123 145 169 174 182 192 200Uttara Bank 57 57 74 87 85 85 90 92
Foreign Banks
National & Grindlays Bank 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10Chartered Bank 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2.AMerican Express Interna-
tionad Bankin Corporation 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2State Bank of Infia I 1 1FAbrb Bank Ird. f
Bank of Cc-edit an-d ComerceInternational (Overseas) Ltd. /b 2
Specialized FinancialInstitutions
Bangladesh Krishi Bank (BKB) 75 75 136 146 147 152 152 154Bangladesh Shilpa Bank (BSB) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
All Banks 1174 1273 1493 1594 1621 1693 1772 1902
Note - In March 1972, the 12 Baagladesh commercial banks were nationalized and consolidated into six banks. On December 17, 1971the number of branches of all banks, including foreign and specialized, was 1169.
/a From July 9, 1976 (Pakistani). /b From November 1976.
Source: Bangladesh Bank.
TABIL 6.9
SELEcTED nf5MST RATES
(in parceot par soj'
Dec...& 1971- July 1974 - April 1976 - Si-g,Jup 1974 March 1976 April 1977 Me 1977
DeOeWtte
(1) SpecIal atics cpunt ordnpo it. withdreeble at -atic.of 7to 29 d 3 4 5 4
Special antics ccounts adepoits ithdrabl at otice 1 1 1of 30 dye or _wur 4- 3-. 2
(2) S ving bunk iccont. withc.kiui fciiItiee 4 5 6 6
bvlnes bunk- accounts withoutoheckiog f-cilitis., i.e. .conot.withdreonls fran which re elo"dthrough .rthdrauel slip. ed on 1production of p_bouhk only 62767
(3) Fined (or trn-) deposits
For 3 othe ond over but ,le thbn 6 aoitha 2
For 6 tsothe and over but 3 1 11eso hn..yIar 4 2 2 2
For 1 yur end over bt 1 I..e thb 2 yeurn 91 -4
For 2 year. end over bht 1 1 1 1Ies than 3 years I2 6-
For 3 years end over 6 4 101 1CT
Ccneral ~~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~712 712 9Ll 9
Fi.:d 8- S- yr4or 1 yt- r 4 4
i or F year. 9 104/ 1U
For 2 yearn 10 101-/ 101
AdvoocesThu wotrndrd by no1llur bwnku 9 ) 12-13 ) 12-13 ) b11-12_hThao at-odad by looser baokn 10 )Advoecee for jute, Jtn goodn 1 10 19
Adv cre. for other nyport 1 I 1c
co. nditios - 11--' 1912 02
Bunk RotaC..erl ract for borrowing fro. BSeoladeoh Book 5 B/ d 8
Rate fur borrowing by Beogladebh Kriuhi Reek 3 6 6 6R.to for borrowing by Banglodwuh Sabaye Bank
(Apin Cooperotivo Bnok) 3 6 6 6
Indwtrinl LandingLending retes of Buoglodeeb Shilpo BSea 1 I
ahort tor loaco 7 ) 12-13 ) 11- - 13-lonsgtcrn lasnc g 2
ARricultur-l L-odinR
Borrwiou L.odiceUp to rod 1973174 Since Joly 1974 Up to sod 1973/74 SInce July 1974
(a) Bangludebh Sa-nb-yu Beck(AP:. CooPru-ive Back) (to .w.tral Coop.
3 6 Banlc) 4 7
(b) Control Cooperotive Books (to prinury4 7 Societine) 6 9
Ic) Prisary Societiwu (to fu rn,6 9 arc.) 9 12
(d) Bangladobh Kriuhi Book (ehort3 6 tern) 7 11
( looR tern) 8 11A,
%:neY Lwndwrs (BUarouci--d Sector)Bnta s vy typic.a I nue rtal -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 30 end p - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Notes - The Benk Rats hue hoe. incroend fran Jono 21, 1974, ruts on deposits nd advooces wore increasedeffctive July 1. 1974
For deposits. Bot0 lodebh triahl Bock and BDngledeeb Shilpu Bank (Agricultnul Dve.lopnet Bank ndInduntrial Delopiet Bank of Bangladeub, respectively) are allowed tn q-nta 1 porceat anre than thnthe raten giveB obove B-wovwr, deponits vith these iantitutiona a far have boon n-gligibln hecbanetheir enrvicse urs sre liniwtd thao th.nu provided by corberial bnka
For advunces the rates gbvn ore orain rute. The urini intereut rote oo dvncee to the privateeacter is on *ver-g- eaout 10-11 porort. Effective roteu are 2 to 3 percentage poiote higher boc oooof norgina (15 tc 30 pereont, dependigR on tha creditworthinoeu of thb bcrrc-r or on the typo ofunsndity fi-ancwd).
Asricultorul lo.ot *re routed by thb Bangld.sh SB bayu Bank to fa-rnr- through the Caatral CooporativoBankS nd the Prinrry 4 ocintis.
sI Effective fro- Joly 1, 1976.hI Iecludes loans so.n.ded by BEd -ndar the special T 1 billion egricultuanl progron Le-nched with effect fr-n
Febrnry 15, 1977S/ Effsctie fran July 19, 1976.
g Effective fr-n Jou 21, 1974.j Bince Aptil 1976
Source Banlodebh Bank.
TABLE 7.1
AREA UNDER MAIN CROPSO(illion Acres)
Crops 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1274/75 .1975/76
Rice 25.48 24.48 22.98 23.79 24.41 24.88 25.53Aus ( 8.46) ( 7.88) ( 7.42) ( 7.24) ( 7.68) ( 7.86) (8.45)Aman (14,84) (14.18) (13.37) (14.12) (14-13) (13-47) (14.24)Boro ( 2.18) ( 2.42) ( 2.19) ( 2.43) ( 2.60) ( 2.87) (2.84)
Wheat 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.37Other Cereals 0.28 0.30 0.25 0.18 0.24 0.24 0.23Pulses 0.91 0.92 0.89 0.78 0.70 0.76 0.75Oilseeds 0.78 0.76 0.69 0.68 0.63 0.69 0.70
Rape & Mistard ( 0.54) 0 0.53) ( 0.47) ( 0.47) o 0.44) ( 0.48) (0.48)Til & Linseed ( 0.16) ( 0.15) ( 0.15) ( 0.15) ( 0.14) ( 0.16) (0.17)Groundnut ( 0.08) ( 0.08) ( 0.07) ( 0.06) ( 0.05) ( 0.05) (0.05)
Jute 2.46 2.20 1.68 2.21 2.02 1.42 1.28Spices 0.42 0.40 0.39 0.38 0.35 0.38 0.38Sugarcane 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.32 0.36 0.38 0.33Potato 0.21 0.21 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.23 0.24Sweet Potato 0.18 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.18Fruits & Vegetables o.64 0.63 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.61 0.63Cotton 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.02Tea 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11Tobacco 0.11 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12Others 0.53 °-5° 0.39 0.40 0.31 0.50 0.40
Total All Crops 32.84 31..53 29.11 30.24 30.50 30.12 31.27
Net Cropped Area IncludingCurrent Fallow 22.49 22.48 22.47 22.47 22.14 22.47 22.48
(Est.) (Est.)
Cropping Intensity t% 146 140 130 135 136 134 139
Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture.
TABLE 7.2PRODUCTION OF MAIN CROPS(thousands of long tons)
Crops 1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76
Rice 11,816 10,968 9,780 9,930 11,700 11,109 12,561
Wheat 103 110 113 90 90 115 215
Gram & Pulses 293 296 269 222 208 223 220
Edible Oil Seeds
Rape, Mustard & Til 163 163 112 132 123 142 138Groundnut 51 47 38 31 27 26 31
Jute ('000 bales) 7,171 6,670 4,193 6,514 6,000 3,965 4,284
Potato 857 849 741 747 719 866 889
Sugarcane 7,418 7,598 5,686 5,318 6,342 6,635 5,886
Mesta ('000 bales) 220 131 93 110 106 54 62
Tea (mln. lb.) 67 69 22 53 60 71 65
Tobacco 41 47 34 39 41 40 44
Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture.
TABLE 7.3
YIELD OF MAIN CROPS(Maunds Per Acre)
1969/-70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76
Rice 12.6 12.2 11.6 11.4 13.1 12.5 13.5
Aus (9.5) (9.9) (8.6 ) (8.5) (9.9) (9.9) (10.4)Aman (12.7) (11.3) (11.9 ) (10.8) (12.9) (12.1) (13.5)Boro (23.7) (24.6) (22.6 ) (23.2) (23.3) (21.3) (21,9)
Wheat 9.3 9.6 9.9 8.2 9.7 10.0 15.8Gram & Pulses 8.7 8.7 8.2 7.7 8.1 7.9 7.9Edible Oil Seeds
Rape & Mustard 6.6 6.7 5.1 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.3Groundnut 17.3 16.0 14.8 14.0 14.6 13.0 15.4
Jute 14.2 14.7 12.1 14.3 14.4 13.3 15.4Potato 111.0 110.0 106.0 107.0 98.2 101.7 102.0Sugarcane a/ 504.0 516.0 442.0 452.0 473.6 475.9 487.8Tea 7.4 7.6 2.4 5.8 6.6 7.4 7.4Tobacco 10.0 9.5 9.2 8.8 9.6 9.6 10.0
a/ These official yield figures of sugarcane are considered to be too high by the Bangladesh SugarcmeCorporation and by IBID. Reasonable yield may be between 2/3 and 3/4 of these official figures.
Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture.
TABLE 7.4
RICE: PRODUCTION. AREA. YIELD
Production in Million Long Tons Area in Million Acres Average Yield Per Acre in Msumds
Aus Aman Boro Total Aus Asan Boro Total Aus Aman Boro Average
1965/66 2.92 6.80 0.62 10.33 7.32 14.67 1.14 23.13 10.8 12.6 14.8 12.11966/67 2.67 5.92 0.83 9.42 6.96 14.06 1.39 22.41 10.4 11.5 16.2 11.41967/68 3.07 6.81 1.11 10.99 8.22 14.68 1.53 24.43 10.2 12.6 19.7 12.21968/69 2.68 6.87 1.61 11.16 7.66 14.40 2.01 24.07 9.5 13.0 21.8 12.61969/70 2.96 6.95 1.90 11.81 8.46 14.84 2.18 25.48 9.5 12.7 23.7 12.6
5-Year Average 2.86 6.67 1.21 10.74 7.72 14.53 1.65 23.90 10.1 12.5 19.9 12.2
197f 71 2.86 5.91 2.19 10.96 7.88 14.18 2.42 24.48 9.9 11.3 24.6 12.2197V 72 2.34 5.70 1.74 9.78 7.42 13.37 2.19 22.98 8.6 11.9 22.6 11.6197Z/ 73 2.27 5.59 2.07 9.93 7.24 14.12 2.43 23.79 8.5 10.8 23.2 11.41973/74 2.80 6.70 2.20 11.70 7.68 14.13 2.60 24.41 9.9 12.9 23.3 13.11974175 2.86 6.00 2.25 11.11 7.86 13.47 2.87 24.20 9.9 12.1 21.3 12.55-year average 2.63 5.98 2.09 10.70 7.62 13.85 2.50 23.97 9.4 11.8 23.0 12.2-OC= = --- - = = - = _
1975/76 3.23 7.04 2.29 12.56 8.45 14.24 2.84 25.53 10.4 13.5 21.9 13.5
Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture.
TABLE 7.5PROCUREMENT, DISTRIBUTION AND STOCKS OF FOODGRAINS
(long tons)
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76
opening Balance 359,237 296,621 214,256 746,277
Imports 2,739,866 1,640,748 2,254,520 1,412,030
Local procurement 52 70,863 137,911 414,954
Available for PublicDistribution 3,099,155 2,008,232 2,606,687 2,573,261
Statutory Rationing 464,802 502,488 471,038 359,112
Modified rationing 1,592,148 776,710 577,859 494,816
Relief 207,109 52,409 160,852 226,283
Others 354,385 396,016 553,787 595,460
Total Distribution 2,618,444 1,727,623 1,763,536 1,675,671
Shortages and Losses 184,090 66,353 96,874 74,423
Closing Balance 296,621 214,256 746,277 823,167
Source: Ministry of Food and Civil Supplies.
TABLE 7.6
F)QpGRAIN PRODUCTICN, IMPORTS AND PER CAPITA CONSUMPTICN(million long tons)
1969/70 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76
ProductionRice 11.81 10.9 6 9.93 11.70 31.11 12.56
Aus 2.96 -bS2. 32L 2S7-7 1270 -2'1RF 3.-23Aman 6.95 5.91 5.70 5.59 6.70 6.00 7.04Boro 1.90 2.19 1.74 2.07 2.20 2.25 2.29
Wheat 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.09 .12 0.22Gross Production 11.91 11.07 9.89 10.02 11.79 11.23 12.78Less 10 for seed,feed & wastage 1.19 1.11 .99 1.00 1.lB 1.12 1.28
Net Production 10.72 9.96 8.90 9.02 10.61 10.11 4 U.50
ImportsRice 0.50 0.38 0.67 0.37 0.08 0.26 0.39Wheat 1.04 o.88 1.02 2.37 1.56 2.0o 1.03
Total Importa 1.55 1.26 1.69 2.74 1.64 2.26 1.42
Offtake from Stocks n.a. n.a. .14 .06 .08 -. 47 -0.09
Total Availability forConsumption 12.27 11.22 10.73 11.82 12.33 11.90 12.83
Population (millions;mid-year) 70.8 72.3 72.4 74.4 76.2 78.2 80.4
Per Capita Consumption _(lbs.) 388.2 347.4 331.8 355.9 362.5 340.9 357.5
a/ Availability inclusive of changes in private stocks.
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Food, Planning CoNmission,Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and Table 1.1.
TABLE 7.7
BADC LOW LIFT PUMP PROGRAM (1960-1976)
Average Area Irrigated Total AreaNumber of pumps cusecs per cusec Irrigated
fears in Operation per pump (Acres) (Acres)
1960/61 1,267 n.a. n.a. 64,528
1961/62 1,543 n.a. n.a. 98,163
1962/63 2,02h 1.70 38.5 133,043
1963/64 2,456 1.85 34.1 156,281
1964/65 2,238 1.95 30.0 131,129
1965/66 3,420 2.05 24.6 173,553
1966/67 3,990 2.14 26.4 225,105
1967/68 6,558 2.08 23.3 317,903
1968/69 10,582 1.89 20.7 424,799
1969/70 17,844 1.84 19.6 639,000
1970/71 24,454 1.85 18.3 820,074
1971/72 24,254 1.84 15.4 864,427
1972/73 32,924 1.84 20.3 1,230,468
1973/74 35,343 1.84 20.1 1,330,810
1974/75 35,427 1.86 20.0 (1,296,960
1975/76 36,376 n.a. n.a. 1,431,000
1976/77 (Target) 40,000 n.a. n.a. ' 1,500,000
Source: Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation.
TABLE 7.8
BADC DEEP TUBEWELLS PROGRAMAverage
Number in Area Irrigated Irrigated AreaYear Sunk Commissioned Operation (Acres) (ac. per well)
1967/68 106 105 n.a. 4,117 n.a.
1968/69 292 2°2 n.a. 16,080 n.a.
1969/70 662 637 n.a. 32,119 n.a.
1970/71 51 35 734 32,070 L 3.7
1971/72 221 21 906 29,330 32.4
1972/73 872 334 1,237 37,776 30.5
1973/74 1,778 398 1,493 61,456 41.2
1974/75 3,178 1,502 2,699 117,864 43.7
1975/76 1,656 1,677 3,828 153,747 40.1
Total 8,816 5,001
Source: Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation.
TABLE 7.9
BADC SHALLOW TUBEWELLS PROGRAM
Average
Number in Area Irrigated Irrigated Area
Year Sunk Commissioned Operation a (Acres) (ac. per well)
1972/73 1,808 655 994 3,560 3.6
1973/74 1,142 1,823 2,293 11,845 5.2
1974/75 911 770 3,605 23,470 6.5
1975/76 1,083 1,150 2,162 12,894 6.0
Total 4,944 4,398
a! Under a subsidy scheme which was outside the usual program of BADC but implemented under the supervision
of BADC technical personnel, 793 tubewe]ls were sunk and 672 commissioned by June of 1972. These tube-uells are included here.
So-urce: Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation.
TABLE 7.10
FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION PRODUCTION AND ORTS(thousand tons)
1974/75 1975/76 1976/77Actual A:tual TarRet
Urea TSP MP Total Urea TS? MP Total Urea TSP MP Total
Consumption by Crop
Amn 53.3 18.3 2.7 74.3 99.2 26.6 5.7 131.5 125.0 38.0 6.6 169.6
Boro 82.8 44.6 10.7 138.1 153.6 68.4 13.6 253.6 177.0 80.0 15.2 272.2
Aus 38.8 14.2 4.1 57.1 58.7 15.1 2.5 76-.3 60.0 20.0 3.2 83.2
Total 174.9 77.1 17.5 269.5 311.5 110.1 21.8 443.4 362.0 138.0 25.0 O
Local Productioa 69.0 26.0 - 95.0 285.0 39.2 -- 324.2 350.0 68.0 -- 418.0
Imports 140.0 47.4 6.9 194.3 71.2 219.2 36.8 327o2 -- 20.0 17.0 37.0
Source: Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation.
TABLE 8. 1
/ aPRODUCTION TRENDS OF S ELECTED INDUSTRIES
Production Production Change1969/70 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976 (July-Dec.) 19i7576 1976 (July-Dec.)
lndustrin Unit ~~~~~~~~~~~~-------------------------- (Actuals) ------------------------------- 1974/75 1975 (July-Dec.)industries Unite …… AtsS …… ~ ~ 5 17 Jl-e.
lute rexatile (huadln os
Hersian (thousand long tons) 560 446 500 444 478.0 238.9 10.7 1.6
Sacking ( ) 228 155 172 146 161.0 83.7 10.3 4.5
Carpet Backing ( " ) 279 210 227 228 221.0 107.3 -3.1 -0.5
Others ( " ) 33 54 66 40 71.0 34.8 77.5 -1.720 27 35 30 24.0 13.1 -20.0 10.1
Cotton TextileCloth (million yds) 60 58 79 86 76.0 36.7 -11.6 -4.2
Yarn (million Ibs) 106 81 96 101 91.0 45.9 -10.0 1.3
Paper & BoardNewsprint (thousand tons) 36 28 26 29 20.0 7.5 -31.0 -38.5Paper C)31 21 24 25 18.0 10.1 -28.0 -11.4
Reyon Yarn ( " ) 2.7 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.5 -25.0 -28.6
Hardboard (million ft) 15 6 16 15 14.0 n.a. -6.7 n.a.
Particle Board (thousand tons) 5.5 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.4 n.a. -33.3 n.a.
Lement ( ) 53 32 53 143 160 142 11.9 164.4
Steel Ingot C * ) 54 68 74 76 90 46.5 18.4 -19.0
Petroleum Products ( ) 853 776 323 761 812 570 6.7 n.a.
Engineering ProductsDiesel Engine (thousand no0) 1.3 1.4 1.7 5.2 0.9 0.01 -82.7
Pumps ( ) - 0.9 2.1 7.5 - 1.1 - -
Cosnerci.l & Heavy Vehicles ( " 0.5 1.2 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.4 -53.8 0 0
C I. & M. S Pipes ( " ) 5.1 2.8 3.7 2.7 4.8 n.a. 77.8 n.a
Radio ( ) 6.0 5.0 11.0 8.7 4.0 2.6 -54.0 -16.1
FertilizerUrea (thousand tons) 96 211 279 69 282 175.5 308.7 21.8
TSP ( " ) - - 26 49 12.4 88.5 -57.7
Aomoniun Sulphate ( ) 4.7 6.0 10.3 4.9 6.2 3.8 26.5 -2.6
Footwear (thousand doz.) 586 448 391 280 285 105 1.8 -12.5
PharmaceuticalsTablets (million nos) - 121 209 253 225 82.7 -11.1 -28.4
Liquid (million bottles) - 2.8 4.5 5.1 7.9 2.6 54.9 -29.3
Soaps (thousand tons) 8.7 8.0 10.4 5.9 8.3 4.2 40.7 20.0
Glass Sheet (million ft) 7.2 7.2 5.7 5.7 5.6 3.1 -1.8 24.0
Moarches (million gross boxes) 3.1 4.9 4.6 6.2 5.5 3.0 -11.3 15.4
Sugar (thousand tons) 93 19 88 98' 87.0 40 -11.2 50.4
Molasses ( ) 51 10 45 52 39.0 18 -25.0 62.2
Tea (million lbs) 67 53 61 66 68 52 3.0 2.4
Food & Allied ProductsEdible & Vegetable Ghee (thousand tons) 19.1 14.1 18.4 15.4 19.1 11.2 24.0 38.3
Fish Processing (million lbs) 3.8 2.3 3.0 2.7 5.1 5.3 88.9 55 9
Soft Beverage (thousand cases) 264 330 258 271 235 88 -13.3 14.3
Cigarettes (billion sticks) 1.9 1 1 1.1 1.7 2 0 0.5 17.6 -50.0
Biscuits & Bread (thousand tons) 3.9 6.4 4.4 4.6 4.0 1.9 -13.0 -3 6
la Public sector only except tea.
Soarce Nationalized Industries Division, Public Sector Corporations, Planning Commission, and Bureau of Statistics.
TABLE 8.2
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR CORPORATIONS(Taka Million)
Net Profit (+)/Loss (-) a/ Gross Salesb/ b/
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76
Bangladesh Jute Mills -325.0 -332.0 -239.0 -284.7 1547.8 1656.8 2063.3 2941.8Corporation (BJMC) (-21.0) (-20.0) (-11.6) (- 9.7)
Bangladesh Textile Mills 100.0 162.7 125.1 59.8 769.4 1254.4 1409.6 1737.8Corporation (BTMC) ( 13.0) ( 13.0) ( 8.9) ( 3.4)
Bangladesh Sugar Mills - 37.3 39.0 53.6 0 122.0 210.7 580.3 723.2Corporation (BSgMC) (-30.6) ( 18.5) ( 9.2) ( - )
Bangladesh Steel Mills - 25.6 19.2 41.6 52.5 147.8 260.5 505.5 791.1Corporation (BStMC) (-17.3) ( 7.4) ( 8.2) ( 6.6)
Bangladesh Paper & Board - 33.5 - 32.7 - 52.8 -124.7 153.8 226.8 308.3 320.2Corporation (BPBC) (-21.8) (-14.4) - 17.1 (-38.9)
Bangladesh Engineering & 7.5 41.0 45.4 20.7 198.1 358.9 373.1 333.5Shipbuilding Corporation (BESC) ( 3.8) ( 11.4) 12.2 ( 6.2)
Bangladesh Fertilizer, Chemical & 15.0 63.3 -180.7 -67.2 220.6 507.2 616.4 1046.1Pharmaceutical Corporation (BFCPC) ( 6.8) ( 12.5) (-29.3) (- 6.4)
Bangladesh Food & Allied 15.1 24.5 53.1 -13.9 215.8 349.4 493.2 736.3Industries Corporation (BFAIC) ( 7.0) ( 7.0) ( 10.8) ( 1.9)
Bangladesh Forest Industries 5.5 31.0 51.0 n.a. 11.0 81.8 120.0 n.a.Development Corporation (BFIDC) ( 50.0) ( 38.0) ( 42.5)
Bangladesh Tanneries - 9.4 - 6.4 - 3.3 2.9 37.6 25.2 47.4 35.4Corporation (BTC) (-25.0) (-25.4) (- 7.0) ( 8.2)
Sub-total (except BJMC) 37.3 341.6 133.0 -69.9 1876.1 3274.9 4453.8 5723.6( 2.0) ( 10.4) ( 3.0) (- 1.2)
Total -287.7 9.6 -106.0 -354.6 3423.9 4931.7 6517.1 8665.4(- 8.4) ( 0.2) (- 1.6) (- 4.1)
a/ The figures in parentheses are ratios of profit or loss over sales in percentage.bt Total excludes BFIDC .
Source: Sector Corporations; Nationalized Industries Division.
TABLE 8.3
a!DUTIES AND TAXES PAID BY SECTOR CORPORATIONS-=
(Taka Million)
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76
Sector Corporation
Jute (BJMC) 72.6 86.2 132.5 86.0
Textile (BTMC) 196.8 277.2 276.0 276.8
Paper & Board (BPBC) 46.0 47.0 110.6 66.9
Steel (BStMC) 9.1 16.3 73.2 106.8
Engineering & Shipbuilding (BESC) 47.1 51.2 106.7 67.6
Fertilizer, Chemical & 30.0 71.0 85.1 194.1Pharmaceutical (BFCPC)
Sugar (BSgMC) 15.4 34.3 160.8 170.2
Food (BFAIC) 42.5 47.5 123.1 151.9
Forestry (BFIDC) 12.9 35.8 25.8 n.a.
Tanning (BTC) 2.1 2.4 1.1 3.6
Total 474.5 668.9 1094.9 1123.9
a/ Excluding income taxes,b/ Excluding BFIDC.
Source: Sector Corporations; Nationalized Industries Division.
TABLE 8.4
DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURES IN PUBLIC SECTOR INDUSTRIES(million current Taka)
Plan Allocation1973-78 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
FFYP ADP ADP P_ADP ADPJute 291.3 104.9 56.3 98.9 119.8
Textile 1,073.5 128.7 81.0 142.2 289.2
Engineering & Shipbuilding 1,294.4 215.1 209.4 381.0 728.9
Iron & Steel 1,000.0 21.0 3.1 8.0 4.6
Chemicals, Fertilizer & 574.4 80.8 96.9 41.6 86.9Pharmaceuticals
Petro-chemicals 1,620.0 - - 328.2 1,019.1
Paper & Board 366.9 30.6 4.7 8.5 46.4
Forest Industries 96.8 93.5 142.3 44.2 22.6
Mineral-Based 628.7 27.1 33.3 71.4 17.4
Sugar Mills 142.8 27.2 20.2 61.1 27.1
Food & Allied Products 80.1 7.7 14.7 19.9 26.2
Leather & Tanning 71.3 10.9 12.9 74.5 16.5
Small & Cottage Industries 245.0 30.5 25.3 54.5 45.4
TOTAL 17,485.0 778.0 700.1 1,334.0 2,450.1
Source: First Five-Year Plan (FFYP) for 1973-78 and Annual Development Plan (ADP) for 1973/74, 1974/75,1975/76 and 1976/77.
TABLE 9.1
DACCA MIDDLE CLASS COST OF LIVING INDEX(1969/70 = 100)
197)4/75 1975/76 1976/77
1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 Sept. Dec. March June Sept. Dec. March June Sept. Oct. Dec. Feb.
1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 1975 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1977
General Index 105 121 182 253 385 430 428 410 393 386 358 366 381 380 376 378
(5) (15) (50) (39) (70) (76) (60) (35) (2) (-lo) (-16) (-11) (-3) (-3) (-3) (2)
Food 105 122 185 263 455 529 486 441 419 398 341 351 376 372 358 350
(5) (16) (52) (42) (91) (106) (78) (35) ( -8) (-25) (-30) (-20) (-10) (-10) (-10) (-4)
Fael & Lighting los 133 192 250 318 370 351 395 352 351 378 375 395 387 381 393
(5) (27) (44) (30) (41) (66) (23) (34) (11) ( 5) ( 7) (-5) (12) (7) (8) (4)
Housing & HouseholdRequisites 101 108 132 161 195 199 347 343 392 403 418 444 449 445 474 500
(1) (7) (22) (22) ( 31) ( 28) (104) ( 91) (io0) (102) (20) (29) (15) (14) (18) (20)
Clothing & Footwear 102 117 229 355 404 418 414 423 385 386 373 362 368 379 377 384
(2) (15) (96) (55) (29) (19) (1o0) (8) (- 5) ( - 8) (-10) (-14) (-4) (-1) (-2) (2)
Miscellaneous Items 112 125 179 236 327 339 355 369 345 354 358 359 356 361 363 372
(12) (12) (43) (32) (58) (49) (37) (30) ( 5) ( 4) (1) (-3) (3) (4) (2) (2)
Note - Group weights are: Food - 52.67, Fuel & Lighting - 5.38, Housing - 11.98, Cloth_ng & Footwear - 8.43, and Miscellaneous -21.54.
Figures in parenthesis are percentage changes over the previous year.
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
TABLE 9.2
NARAYANGANJ INDUSTRIAL WORKERS COST OF LIVING INDEX
(1969/70 = 100)
1974/75 1975176 1976/77Sept. Dec. Mlar. June , Mar. June Sept. Oct. Dec. Feb.
1972/73 i2l3LZk 1974 1974 M 1975 1975 2175 1976 1976 1976 1976 1976 1977
General Index 205 286 456 519 483 449 403 372 346 349 365 368 356 354(39) (78) (89) (62) (28) (-12) (-28) (-28) (-22) (-9) (-7) (-4) (-4)
Food 187 261 467 554 504 445 402 359 326 333 354 361 339 334(40) (104) (123) (87) (35) (-14) (-35) (-35) (-25) (-12) (-8) (-6) (-6)
Housing & House-hold Requisites 210 208 333 337 347 391 346 349 373 369 407 399 414 418
(-1) (34) (39) (18) (25) ( 4) ( 4) (7) (-5) (18) (13) (18) (12)
Clothing & Footwear 323 489 567 572 512 528 441 450 421 426 393 391 401 423(51) (25) (16) (4) ( 1) (-22) (-21) (-18) (-19) (-11) (-11l) (-11) (-3)
Miscellaneous Itema 204 273 383 394 433 444 421 396 369 360 371 370 378 363(34) (56) (56) (42) (34) (10) ( 1) (-15) (-19) (-12) (-10) (-4) (-9)
Note - Group weights ares Food - 69.77, Housing & Household - 9.35, Clothing and Footweat - 10.38, and Miscellaneous - 10.50.Figures in parenthesis are percentage changes over the previous year.
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
TABLE 9.3
INDICES OF WHOLESALE PRICES AT DACCA(1969/70 = 100)
1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77Index Sept. Sept. Dec. Sept. Dec . Sept. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sept. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sept. Dec. Jan.
1971 1972 1972 1973 1973 1974 1974 1975 1975 1975 1975 1976 1976 1976 1976 1977
A. A G R I C U L T U R A L P R O D U C T S
General 117 176 169 218 216 525 520 533 451 405 305 284 308 308 295 279(50) (24) (28) (-23) (-41) (-47) (-32) (-24) (-3) (-8)
Food 112 183 168 249 246 579 567 568 473 410 284 257 282 296 264 243(63) (36) (46) (-29) (-50) (-55) (-40) (-28) (-7) (-16)
Raw Materials 125 165 172 171 172 309 333 396 366 382 395 389 413 358 419 428FueanLghtg/a (32) (4) (- ) ( 24) (19) (- 2) (13) (-6) (6) (3)
Fuel and Lighting- 438 386 448 490 457 312 452 369 336 381 348( 4) (-19) ( I ) (-25) (-26) (22) (1)
B. I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T S
General 139 274 267 244 274 371 403 382 407 387 365 317 327 380 367 364(97) (-11) (3) (4) (- 9) (-17) (-20) ( -2) (1) (13)
Food 115 276 281 254 311 336 380 361 382 366 331 310 315 371 361 352(140) ( -8) (11) (9) (-13) (-14) (-18) ( 1) (9) (14)
Raw Materials/i! 136 121 148 242 221 261 439 561 745 576 642(63) (115) (197) (132) (237) (121) (71)
Fuel and Lighting 154 208 230 250 314 413 380 355 359 385 365 411 441 465 420 420( 35) ( 20) (36) (-7) ( -4) ( 16) ( 23) ( 21) (15) (-3)
Other Manufactures 173 273 249 230 223 515 512 488 520 479 502 324 336 372 367 375( 58) (-16) (-10) (-7) ( -2) (-34) (-35) (-22) (-27) (7)
Note - Figures in parenthesis are percentage changes over the previous year.
a/ Indices introduced in the series starting July 1974.
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
TABLE 9.4
WHOLESALE PRICES OF SELECTED COMMODITIES AT DACCA(Taka)
July July January January July January July November January February1968/69 1969/70 1972 1973 1974 1975 1975 1976 1976 1976 1977 1977
Rice (fine) Md. 47.60 47.64 78.10 109.00 114.37 322.50 231.75 134.C 139.2 143.5 125.8 127.7
Rice (medium) Nd. 444.6 44.67 68.60 105.25 109.75 310.00 228.00 130.C 128.4 127.5 117.6 122.5
Rice (coarse) Md. 41.43 40.43 61.50 96.37 104.25 192.50 213.50 118.6 115.0 109.8 103.0 114.7
Masur Md. 31.37 39.13 68.60 110.50 198.13 185.00 220.50 340.0 161.6 158.0 147.4 154.0
Chillies (dry), sup.qlty. Md. 119.85 98.19 120.00 111.00 376.25 1,1 42.0c! 345.00 342.0 267.0 455.0 413.0 425.0
Mistard oil (local) Md. 133.04 164.20 340.00 382.50 543.75 1,441.25 1,441.25 676.0 582.0 740.0 722.0 589.2
Cocoanut oil (imported) Md. 247.05 216.33 488.oo 620.00 994.17 1,500.00 810.00 629.0 710.0 706.2 825.0 868.7
Vegetables oil (Pakvan) 35 lbs. 59.79 66.84 123.70 198.75 271.00 517 . 7 5&L 381.25 280.0 291.6 290.0 317.0 284.0
Tobacco leaf (Motihari, Md.sup. quality) 341.48 253.94 382.50 808.75 815.00 621.25 825.00 1,405.0 1,$00.0 1,400.0 1,420.0 1,500.0
/ March 1975.
d February 1975.
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
TABLE 9.5
RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED CONSUMIER GOODS AT DACCA(Average Prices in Taka)
July January July January July January July Jmsuary July November JanaryItems Unit 1968/69 1969/70 1972 1973 1973 1974 1974 1975 1975 1976 1976 1976 1977
Rice (medium) Md. 47.20 47.60 71.60 83.20 109.60 116.40 168.00 330.00 243.20 137.60 141.20 139.60 124.80(53) (40) (53) (183) (45) (-58) (-42) (-2) (-9)
Nasur (husked, whole) Seer 1.11 1.16 1.98 2.84 3.00 5.55 5.00 5.55 6.05 9.43 4.83 4.75 4.52(52) (95) (67) ( -) (21) (70) (-20) (-35) (-52)
Rohu, big (cut pieces) 3.90 4.12 6.21 9.37 11.65 10.56 15.72 14.14 15.88 16.12 18.76 14.84 17.39(88) (13) (35) (21) (1) (14) (18) ( -2) (8)
Potato (dosi. nainital), medium 0.73 0.66 1.23 0.95 1.95 2.12 2.56 2.08 3.50 1.89 2.15 2.29 1.18(59) (123) (61) ( -2) (37) (49) (-39) (-49) (-38)
luatard oil (local mill 1st qlty) 5.65 4.37 9.19 13.69 12.07 15.57 22.74 41.68 30.08 21.21 16.07 19.08 19.86(31) (14) (88) (168) (32) (-49) (-43) (-23) (-6)
Chillies - dry * 3.51 3.06 3.45 2.53 3.40 10.20 23.27 92.75 10.81 10.06 8.80 12.33 12.00(-1) (303) (584) (809) (-53) (11) (-19) ( 30) (19)
Cur-Cane (loose) 1.55 1.58 3.93 3.06 4.05 3.57 5.39 8.22 10.47 6.21 6.93 4.69 3.00( 3) ~ (17) (33) (130) (94) (-24) (-34) (-39) (19)
Cocoanut-dry (med.) Per Unit 0.59 0.66 1.17 1.42 1.50 2.62 2.65 4.33 3.33 4.33 3.50 3.00 3.75(28) (85) (77) (65) (26) (-) ( 5) ( - ) (r13)
Firewood (gasari, split) Md. 5.56 5.87 8.48 12.50 12.72 14.40 17.67 20.91 24.47 21.87 23.07 22.39 24.00(50) (15) (39) (18) (38) ( 4 ) (-6) (10)22 ounce
Kerosene-White Bottle 0.37 0.35 0.52 0.86 0.95 1.58 1.25 1.40 1.58 1.67 1.84 1.84 1.84(83) (84) (32) (-11) (26) (19) (16) ( 10) (10)
5 YardSaree (mill 50'sX70s. medium) Piece 11.35 12.16 19.50 28.67 40.00 41.33 43.33 40.67 38.33 35.67 35.00 37.00 36.00
(105) (44) ( 8) ( -2) (-12) (-12) (-9) ( I ) (1)
Longcloth (med.) Yard 1.81 2.05 8.00a/ 10.87 12.67 12.00 12.50 13.00 11.33 8.00 8.33 9.00 9.50(58) (10) (-2) ( 8) (-9) (-38) (-26) (13) (19)
Paper-Foolscap (white) Quire 0.73 0.75 0.87 1.00 1.50 1.25 2.71 2.67 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.67 2.50(72) (25) (81) (114) (-26) (-25) ( - ) (33) (25)
Betel-leaf (med.) Bira 1.10 1.04 2.95 4.33 2.41 2.61 2.16 3.80 5.16 5.07 3.70 3.41 3.90(-18) (-40) (-10) (46) (139) (33) (-28) (-20) (-23)
Tobacco (leaf) motihari Seer 10.18 8.98 16.85 24.27 28.36 22.02 23.23 24.16 26.81 41.15 43.67 46.00 52.50(68) (- 9) (-18) (10) (16) (70) (63) (51) (28)
Note - Figures in parenthesis are percentage increase over the previous year.
a/ August 1972.
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
TABLE 9.6
AVERAGE PRICES OF RICE(Medium Quality; in Taka per maund)
Wholesale RetailPrice La Price /
1969/70 43.12 45.601970/71 41.48 45.301971/72 56.31 61.201972/73 95.80 107.601973/74 113.31 120.401974/75 230.08 252.24
July 1974 162.28 166.80August 1974 188.36 202.40September 1974 214.27 236.00October 1974 264.44 289.00November 1974 228.75 272.00December 1974 223.06 239.60January 1975 258.00 284.40February 1975 260.57 282.50March 1975 272.65 292.70April 1975 248.01 271.40May 1975 221.36 248.90June 1975 219.19 241.20
1975/76 141.32 153.78
July 1975 234.72 241.90August 1975 201.94 214.70September 1975 171.47 185.90October 1975 151.15 180.00November 1975 124.07 143.20December 1975 112.97 126.80January 1976 122.57 128.40February 1976 120.28 133.20March 1976 112.69 120.00April 1976 113.52 118.40May 1976 118.18 126.80June 1976 112.33 126.00
1976/77
July 1976 121.32 130.80August 1976 122.43 132.00September 1976 122.37 130.00October 1976 124.98 131.20November 1976 122.69 129.20December 1976 113.15 119.20January 1977 109.68 118.00
a/ National average.
b/ Simple Average of 4 centres, namely Dacca, Chittagong, KhulnaRajshahi.
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
TABLE 9.7
AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES OF RICE IN DACCA(Medium Quality)
Taka per Taka perseer maund
1969 1.21 48.35
1970 1.16 46.35
1971 1.29 51.54
1972:
January-March 1.31 52.34
April-June 1.69 67.53
July-September 1.99 79.51
October-December 2.11 84.31
1973:
January-March 2.18 87.10
April-June 2.67 106.68
July-September 2.77 110.68
October-December 2.82 112.68
1974:
January-March 3.10 124.00
April-June 3.92 156.63
July-September 5.27 210.57
October-December 7.27 290.69
1975:
January-March 7.96 318.27
April-June 6.45 258.00
July-September 3.50 131.30
October-December 3.86 154.27
1976:
January-March 3.38 135.20
April-June 3.39 135.73
July-September 3.51 140.40
October-December 3.20 123.50
1977:
January 3.12 117.60
February 3.31 122.50
Source: Planning Commission and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
TABLE 9.8
MINIMUM RETAIL PRICE AVERAGES OF COARSE RICEFOR DIFFERENT GROUPS OF DISTRICTS
(Tk/maund)
Country Surplus Self-sufficient Deficit
Average Districts Districts Districts
1971:
July 37.4 36.6 37.7 39.9
September 42.3 42.6 42.4 41.9
December N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.
1972:
March 54.9 53.7 55.0 56.0
June 59.7 59.6 60.7 58.7
September 63.8 64.1 62.6 64.8
December 63.0 62.8 60.8 65.4
1973:
March 86.8 82.5 88.3 89.5
June 85.3 83.4 89.4 83.1
September 86.6 85.9 87.3 86.5
December 80.0 78.9 78.0 83.3
1974:
March 123.0 123.8 118.5 126.5
June 130.4 132.4 131.3 127.7
September 221.7 234.5 203.6 226.9
December 198.4 166.1 186.3 242.9
1975:
March 262.8 248.6 265.8 274.0
June 199.2 190.3 202.0 205.3
September 125.1 123.9 119.7 131.5
December 112.0 110.8 110.3 114.8
1976:
March 105.9 99.9 104.9 110.1
June 101.8 "9.9 103.R 101.7
September 103.1 100.6 103.1 105.6
December 99.0 97.3 100.0 99.4
Source: "Review of the food situation in Bangladesh", Department of
Research, Bangladesh Bank.
TABLE 9.9
PRICES OF BUILDING MATERIALS AND WAGES OF CONSTRUCTION WORKERS(Taka)
July July July July JaWOXy July FebruaryItem Unit 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70 1972 1973 1974 1975 197,6 1976 1977
Materials
Bricks-10" ... ... Per 1,000 118.23 118.85 125.07 156.87 288.50 429.79 653.81 620.54 618.86 588.81(First Class)
Cement ... ... Per bag 13.10 12.68 13.08 35.30 37.66 118.25 92.04 60.37 61.00 63.50(A.B.C.)
Sand ... ... 100 cft. 36.97 38.62 39.23 39.33 108.67 84.88 99.00 1Ol.10 106.79 117.74Coarse superior quality
Iron Rods ... ... Per cwt. 74.77 72.73 81.31 102.19 154.10 271.86 413.26 345.55 333.86 348.91
C.I. Sheet ... ... Per bundle 173.65 99.58 193.16 303.67 495.00 1,029.00 1,200.00 917.00 891.14 1,014.6724 gauge
Labor
Mason ... ... Per day 6.87 7.01 7.16 7.93 12.87 14.88 19.62 20.33 21.28 20.29
Helper (jungali) ... ... Per day 3.44 3.74 3.51 5.08 6.37 8.73 11.50 10.27 10.57 10.81
Carpenters ... ... Per day 6.12 6.27 6.42 7.20 11.60 14.00 17.05 18.00 19.67 20.07
Sovree: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
TABLE 9.10
AVERAGE WAGE RATE PER DAY IN DACCA la(Taka)
Industry JadOary JuLy January July January July January July January - July January1968 1972 1973 1973 1974 1974 1975 1975 1976 1976 1977
Cotton Textile -
Skilled 5.50 7.20 7.12 7.50 7.50 8.50 10.00 11.25 11.25 12.00 13.00
Unskilled 3.50 5.00 5.78 5.80 6.50 7.05 8.00 9.50 8.00 9.001 10.00
Jute Textile
Skilled 5.00 7.60 7.12 7.50 8.00 8.50 10.00 10.87 11.00 12.00 13.00
Unskilled 3.00 5.00 5.78 5.80 6.12 7.00 8.00 8.50 8.12 9.00 8.50
Match
Skilled 4.77 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.75 11.00 11.75 13.00 11.75 14.75 15.00
Unskilled 3.37 7.30 7.00 7.00 7.75 8.00 8.62 9.31 8.00 10.00 10.00
Mustard Oil
Skilled 4.69 7.60 7.87 9.00 9.44 10.00 10.25 11.79 12.75 12.00 12.00
Unskilled 2.92 5.00 6.62 6.50 7.37 7.50 8.00 9.78 9.00 9.00 9.50
/a Exclusive of food, housing, medical facilities, etc.
Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.-
TABLE 10.1
PRODUCTION, EXPORTS AND STOCKS OF JUTE GOODS(thousand long tons)
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77( …-----------…Actual-------- - (--IBRD Estimate--)
Carryover 102 101 114 127 117Production 446 500 444 478 480
Total Availability 548 601 558 605 597
Exports 412 438 379 438 460Domestic Consumption 35 49 52 50 50
(including loss)
Closing Stock 101 114 127 117 87
Source: Bangladesh Jute Mills Corporation.
TABLE 10.2
PRODUCTION OF JUTE GOODS
(thousand long tons)
CarpetHessian Sacking Backing Others Total
1969/70 227.7 279.3 33.0 20.6 560.61970/71 199.4 172.8 40.5 26.9 439.61971/72 121.0 145.6 35.5 13.2 315.21972/73 155.1 210.4 53.8 27.0 446.31973/74 172.3 227.2 65.7 34.9 500.21974/75 146.1 227.9 40.4 29.8 444.31975/76 161.3 221.0 71.3 24.3 477.91976/77
July 16.0 18.9 6.6 2.4 43.9August 13.5 16.8 5.7 2.2 38.1September 12.1 15.8 4.9 2.0 34.8October 15.2 19.5 6.2 2.3 43.2November 15.4 19.5 6.3 2.3 43.5December 11.3 16.5 5.0 1.9 34.8July-Dec. 83.7 107.3 34.7 13.1 238.8January 13.8 18.0 5.8 2.2 39.8February 12.7 18.3 5.5 1.9 38.4
Source: Bangladesh Jute Mills Corporation.
TABLE 10.3
JUTE GOODS EXPORTS
Export Shipments Export Sales
Volume (in thousand long tons) Value Volume ValueCarpet (in thousand
Hessian Sacking Backing Others Total (Taka million) long tons) (Tk. million)
1969/70 204.2 232.0 34.0 28.0 498.2 773.4
1970/71 172.6 146.1 42.5 20.7 381.9 667.81971/72 76.7 100.5 32.7 11.1 221.0 795.4
1972/73 163.1 169.8 50.0 28.7 411.6 1,440.1 517.9 1,827.6
1973/74 144.8 206.1 61.4 25.8 438.1 1,552.6 492.3 1,858.21974/75 136.6 181.4 42.8 17.9 378.7 1,784.9 391.5 1,977.7
1975/76 159.2 198.2 62.4 18.1 437.9 2,638.4 547.2 3,244.6
1976/77July 12.5 18.4 7.2 1.6 39.7 222.1 21.9 125.3
August 9.3 10.4 5.7 3.8 29.1 161.2 37.8 220.5September 18.4 26.4 4.8 1.7 51.3 291.7 39.3 248.1
October 15.2 9.8 7.8 1.3 34.2 215.1 44.5 270.1
November 13.9 11.3 5.8 2.4 33.3 195.9 37.4 209.1
December 10.8 16.7 3.7 1.0 32.3 179.5 24.5 142.4
July-Dec. 79.9 93.0 35.1 11.9 219.9 1,265.6 205.5 1,215.9
Jan. 9.2 23.0 6.2 1.5 40.0 225.0 31.6 185.9Feb. 15.3 20.8 2.6 1.6 40.3 235.5 65.0 385.8
Source: Bangladesh Jute Mills Corporation.
TABLE 10.4
EXPORT PRICES OF JUTE GOODS
(Taka per long ton)
Hessian Sacking Carpet Backing(llxl2-40"-10 oz./yd.) (6x8-26-l/2" -2.25 lbs/bag.B.Twells) (7 ox./36, 13 x 10)
1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77July 3,799 5,878 6,193 6,664 2,522 3,455 5,504 4,696 4,889 6,300 8,128 7,283August 3,870 6,224 6,162 6,664 2,527 3,709 5,376 4,696 4,750 6,077 8,648 7,373September 3,987 6,380 6,220 6,818 2,539 3,962 5,227 4,635 4,750 5,750 8,473 8,096October 4,157 6,198 6,272 7,030 2,608 4,123 5,175 4,549 4,775 5,750 8,430 7,890November 4,265 5,625 6,169 6,741 2,638 4,112 5,077 4,535 4,775 5,750 8,844 7,904December 4,767 5,330 6,224 6,697 2,738 3,959 5,077 4,550 4,775 5,350 8,828 7,722January 5,591 5,112 6,249 6,671 3,036 3,939 4,795 4,578 5,250 4,950 8,803 7,924February 5,663 5,275 6,398 3,216 3,963 4,885 5,250 4,950 7,654March 6,666 4,919 6,787 3,504 3,862 4,954 5.250 4,995 7,954April 7,455 4,579 6,809 3,785 3,861 4,954 5,250 5,100 8,203May 6,523 5,635 6,382 3,385 4,436 4,628 6,150 6,207 7,516June 5,734 6,390 6,642 3,385 5,685 4,689 6,300 8,099 7,424
Average 5,206 5,629 6,376 2,990 4J09 5,028 5,180 5,773 8X242
Source: Bangladesh Jute Mills Corporation.
TABLE 10.5
JUTE MILLS STOCKS OF RAW JUTE AND JUTE GOODS
Date Raw Jute Jute GoodsA/(thousand long tons)
Carpet(thousand bales) Hessian Sacking Backing Others Total
June 30, 1970 530.3 24.7 31.7 3.4 3.5 63.3June 30, 1973 683.9 26.6 61.0 7.4 5.7 100.9June 30, 1974 691.1 40.7 55.1 9.8 8.8 114.4June 30, 1975 654.4 36.3 70.4 7.0 13.7 127.3June 30, 1976 522.3 35.6 59.2 11.6 10.7 117.0July 31, 1976 373.0 37.5 57.1 10.4 8.8 113.8Aug. 31, 1976 331.4 44.4 56.0 9.9 7.7 118.0Sept. 30, 1976 452.4 38.0 49.0 9.4 6.3 102.6Oct. 31, 1976 666.2 36.8 58.9 o.2 7.2 111.1Nov. 30, 1976 665.5 38.1 62.9 8.3 7.2 116.5Dec. 31, 1976 615.3 38.5 62.5 9.4 6.8 117.2Jan. 31, 1977 565.0 .. .. .. ..
a/ Consisting of sold, unsold and in-transit stocks.
Source: Bangladesh Jute Mills Corporation.
TABLE 10. 6
PRODUCTION, DOMESTIC USE AND EXPORTS OF RAW JUTE
(Million bales)
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
(-----------------Actual--------------) (--Bank Estimate--)Carryover 1.26 2.11 2.15 1.85 1.00
Production 6.51 6.00 3.90 4.35 4.70
Total Availability 7.77 8.11 6.05 6.15 5.70
Mills Consumption 2.49 2.91 2.50 2.65 2.60
Growers' Consumption 0.15 0.25 0.10 0.15 0.15
Estimated Loss & Unaccounted 0.20 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.10
Total Domestic Use 2.84 3.31 2.70 2.90 2.85
Exports 2.82 2.65 1.55 2.35 2.20
End Season Stocks 2.11 2.15 1.85 1.00 0.65
Area under jute 2.21 2.02 1.40 1.28 1.70(mln. acres)
Source: Ministry of Jute and Bureau of Agricultural Statistics.
TABLE 10.7
EXPORTS AND PRICES OP RAW JUTEa~~~~~~
--------------- Shipments ('000 bales) ---------- ------- EKport Price (L/ton)_- -- ----- - ------Domestic Price (Taka/Maund) ---------
1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1972/73 /973/74 /974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77
July 143 202 169 73 112 112 114 144 155 $290-/ 50.47 50.94 66.17 88.90 93.55
August 138 84 172 38 100 112 114 150 155 290 49.73 52.44 67.39 87.78 93.38
September 108 120 218 108 97 112 116 165 155 290 48.25 51.70 85.76 90.51 93.17
October 171 155 228 129 171 112 116 190 155 290 50.94 52.54 107.41- 88.24 95.58
November 255 169 118 145 281 112 116 200 155 290 52.48 52.64 128.71 87.02 103.35
December 281 280 192 249 239 112 116 200 155 30C 54.29 52.90 106.80 90.23 109.69
January 310 280 172 283 364 112.7 116 200 155 300 54.52 53.64 94.09 96.39 118.16
February 203 313 105 336 287 114.05 116.32 200 155 320-/ 55.10 54.80 84.21 101.00 125.00
March 337 196 91 350 115 119 200 160 320 55.33 56.31 81.77 103.70
April 285 317 58 257 115 124.9 200 171 56.37 57.52 76.67 103.85
May 268 254 31 224 115 133.15 180 $302 -/ 55.72 61.12 83.31 105.93
June 327 292 84 155 114 138.8 160 $290 /55.77 67.32 88.00 106.05
d/ d/ ~ ~ ~ d/ di/dTotal 2,826 2,662 1,548 1,605 113.15- 120.01- 182.4 $313 c/ 53.25 55.32- 89.20- 95.80
a/ BWD Grade (FOB Chalna/Chittagong).b/ Combined average price for white and tossa jute at grower's level.c/ Price quotation was changed to US$ in May 1976.J Simple average.
e/ From Dec. 13, 1976.g From Feb. 14, 1977.
Source: Jute Divi8ion; Bangladesh Jute Export Corporation.
TABLE 10.8
EXPORT SALES OF RAW JUTE
Sales Value('000 bales) (million for $)
1973/74
July 96 1.56August 442 8.78
September 263 5.52October 283 5.72November 199 4.21
December 368 7.37
January 544 9.93
February 511 9.68
March 86 1.68
April 156 2.87
May 97 1.99
June 274 5.69
Total 1973/74 3,319 65.00
1974/75
July 107 2.60August 261 6.75
September 66 1.79
October 47 1.45
November 105 3.20
December 56 2.06January 5 .18
February 5 .15March 31 1.20April 57 2.00
May 14 .40June 264 3.69
Total 1974/75 1,018 25.47
1975/76
July 45 1.10August 112 2.93September 420 12.89
October 109 2.19November 215 5.80
December 712 15.80
January 266 5.38
February 207 4.19
March 166 3.47
April 166 3.70
May 99 $6.80 a/
June 138 $5.85 a/
Total 1975/76 2,655 $129.89
1976/77
July 125 $ 5.35August 89 4.24
September 213 10.30
October 354 16.18November 752 34.12
December 242 11.8
Total July-December 1976/77 1775 81.99
January 206 105
February 190 97
a/ Price quotation was changed to US$ in May 1974,
Source: Bangladesh Jute Export Corporation.
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