Repo Ni 7116&CG

Antigua and BarbudaUpdating Economic NoteJansary 2C 1998

Latin America arid the Caribbean Region

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank authorization.

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

CURR.NCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit East Caribbean Dollar

Since its creation in 1965, the East Caribbean dollar was tied to sterlingat the rate of £1.00 = EC$4.8. In July 1976 the link with sterling wasbroken and the East Caribbean dollar was aligned with the US dollar at therate of US$1.00 = EC$2,70.

Since July 1976

EC$1.00 = US$0.37 orUS$1.00 = EC$2.70

FOR OFFICIL USE ONLY

PREFACE AND ABSTRACT

This report updates economic performance in Antigua and Barbuda inthe last year. A more detailed analysis of development issues andporformance is contained in the report entitled 'Antigua and BarbudaEconomic Memorandum' (Report No. 5297-CRG, January 3, 1985).

The economy of Antigua and Barbuda advanced rapidly in recentyears on the strength of a buoyant tourism sector and related construction.Annual growth exceeded 72 during 1983 to 1986. Prospects for continuedstrong tourism growth in the near term raise issues of intensification oflabor shortages throughout the economy with concomitant upward pressure onwages that could adversely affect the country's internationalcompetitiveness. The Government might consider liberalizing its policieson immigrant labor. Sectoral issues relate to the adequacy of airlineseats commensurate with the growth in tourist accommodation, the ability ofmanufacturing firms to penetrate extra-regional markets, and the need todevelop commercial scale operations in agriculture.

Fiscal performance, which improved in 1985 and 1986, deterioratedin 1981 primarily because of a 20% pay increase given to governmentemployees. Debt management continues to be problematic. Arrears onexternal debt service increased by US$8 million in 1987, bringing totalarrears outstanding to 16% of GDP. The rapid accumulation of commercialdebt in the last two years to finance major public sector projects willraise the debt service burden in the short term t unmanageableproportions, assuming no rescheduling. To bring the external debtuituation under control and strengthen the public finances, the authoritieswould have to conclude successfully the debt rescheduling discussions begunin 1987; adopt an active program of divestment of government hotel assets;strictly control government expenditures; appropriately increase tariffs ofthe public utilities; and refrain from contracting new debt on commercialterms until the debt servicing capacity has consi_erably improved.

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceI Ie'. - " I rg -tr 4 withniut World Bank authorization.

ANTIGGA AND IAi

A Bank economic sission visited Antigua and Barbuda in September1987. The mission consisted of Dawn Elvis (mission leader), Gingor Roich(research assistant) and Vinetta Robinson (CDI). This gconoamic Notoupateas information on recent oconomic developments, highlights selecteddevelopment issues and outlines the 1988-90 public sector investmentprogras as vell as the Goveroment's financing requirements. Thestatistical tables are based largely on the work of the Int-rnationalMonetary Fund. The contents of this note were discuaxed with theauthorities in Dcember 1987.

ANTIOU AND AInUDA

Tabl, of Contents

If OVERVIEW ......... I................................... 1

II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 1

III. SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT ISSUES ...................... .* ........ . 3

IV. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM ................. se.**e 5

V. MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS AND EXTERNAL FINANCINGREQUIRDMENTS 6

ANNEX Is PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM..................... 8

ANNEX II: STATISTICAL APPENDIX... 15

MAP (IBRD 13506)

ANTIGUA AWtD BARBUDA

1. OVERVIEW

1. Over the last decade, Antigua and Barbuda has significantlyincreased its standing as a premier tourist destination in the Caribbean,catering largely to an up-scale tourist market. This development hasbrought increasing prosperity, and the Government's development strategyemphasizes upgrading and expanding the physical and social infrastructureto support tourism and further exploit that sector's potential. Thesuccess of this strategy undoubtedly depends en economic performance inAntigua's main tourist markets, particularly North America. However, sounddomestic policies are required to complement the opportunities offered by afavorable external environment. The Government has accumulatedconsiderable arrears on external debt, and a sharp increase in 1986 and1987 in public sector investments with commercial financing has compoundedthe debt servicing problem. In this regard, the challenge is to follow aprudent debt management policy, including a halt to the accumulation ofarrears. The Government must also address in a timely manner the emergingstructural problems associated with the rapid growth of tourism: namelythe generalized labor shortage and its implications for rising domesticcosts.

2. Antigua's currency is pegged to the United States dollar at EC$2.7to US$1.0 since 1976. As a member of the common Eastern Caribbean CentralBank, Antigua's scope for independent monetary and exchange rate policy, aswell as foreign reserve management, is extremely limited. Because thecountry's foreign trade relations are heavily weighted towards the USmarket, the real effective exchange rate in mid-1987 remained at about the1980 level.

II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

3. Antigua's economy advanced at an annual average rate of 7.9% inreal terms (GDP at factor cost) during 1983 to 1985, boosted by the impacton tourism of steady growth in the world economy. Public and privatesector projects to expand capacity in response to the buoyancy in tourismstimulated double digit annual growth in the construction and relatedmining and quarrying sectors. The public sector launched major investmentsin water supply, electricity, and airport and road rehabilitation inaddition to a large hotel complex; and the private sector has been activein the construction or expansion of smaller hotels. Growth continuedstrong in 1986. Performance in these sectors, together with an upturn inagriculture following the 1984 drought, compensated for a slowdown in theGovernment and other service sectors, and underpinned a further 8% increasein real GDP. The economic indicators point to continued strong performancein 1987 with output growth estimated at about 7%.

4. The buoyant. economic conditions have given rise to labor marketpressures. The cons,ruction sector is operating at full capacity and theattractiveness of earnings in tourism exerts a strong pull on the laborforce, creating labor scarcities in most other sectors. Semi-skilled aswell as non-skilled categories are affected. Unofficial estimates place

the current unemployment rate at 102, low by comparison with otherCaribbean countries. Although Antigua has permitted some immigrant laborfrom neighboring countries, there is no defined policy to ensure anadequate labor supply. Selected data on lahor cost movements in privateindustry and government salary increases averaging 202 in 1987 denote astrong upward trend in wage costs. Increases in the consumer price index,meanwhile, moderated in 1986 to 0.5%.

5. The performance of the country's balance of payments is determinedlargely by the strength of tourism, the chief source of foreign exchangeearnings, and by developments in project-related imports. Thus, thecurrent account balance narrowed considerably in 1983 and 1984 as tourismearnings almost doubled in those two years, and as closure of the oilrefinery led to a sharp decline in oil imports. The situation was reversedin 1986 and 1987, chiefly on account of import requirements for majorinvestment projects in infrastructure and hctel development. In 1986, thecurrent account deficit rose sharply to U`. 37 million (60Z of GDP).Though it is estimated to narrow in 1987, it would still. be substantial atUS$84 million (32% of GDP). These large increases in the deficit werefinanced by project-related capital inflows on public and private accounts.Domestic merchandise exports, typically 6% of all export receipts, havecomprised chiefly manufactured goods such as garments and electroniccomponents destined for the US market, and paints sold on the OECS market.A new agricultural enterprise exports fresh fruit to the United States.

The Public Finances

6. Public sector finances improved in 1985 and 1986 followingenhanced revenue collections and stricter control of recurrentexpenditures. This posture was relaxed, however, in 1987. The new civilservant wage contract agreed in 1987 involves considerable additionalpayouts that are not likely to be matched by increased revenues. And thegrowth in public sector external debt and arrears continues to beproblcmatic.

7. The revenue measures introduced in late 1985 and early 1986contributed to a 332 increase in revenues in 1986. This compares with an11% increase in 1985. The result was an EC$11 million surplus in 1986, thefirst surplus on an accrual basis since the beginning of the decade.Further measures were called for to stem the accrual of arrears, and theGoverament in 1987 raised consumption taxes, primarily on imported meats.This, however was a modest effort and recurrent revenues are estimated tohave increased by only 8% in 1987. Meanwhile, recurrent expenditures areestimated to have risen in 1987 by some 20%. The 20% civil service payraise is the major source of the spending increase, though expenditures onother goods and services also are projected to go up significantly. Thebudgetary balance would likely revert to a deficit position and, despitesome effort to keep current on payment obligations, a further buildup ofarrears of about EC$11 million is estimated in 1987. The publicenterprises, by contrast, have registered sizable increases annually intheir operating surplus, contributing with the rest of the generalGovernment to consolidated public sector surpluses averaging 5% of GDP in

1985 and 1986. A sharp downturn in their performance is expected in 1987,associated with the expanding operations of the public utilities.

External Debt

8. The deterioration in the public sector's accounts in 1987 is causefor concern as it exacerbates an already serious public debt problem.Unable to meet all its payment obligations, the Government accumulatedfurther arrears, increasing the arrears on external debt service by US$8million during the year. At the end of 1987, the total public and publiclyguaranteed external debt outstanding amounted to US$245 million, equivalentto 95Z of GDP and 111Z of exports of goods and services. Of this, 172represented arrears on principal and interest. Aside from arrears, about65Z of the debt was contracted over the last two years in respect of acogeneration thermal electricity project/desalination plant, a 350-roomhotel/condominium complex at Deep Bay, resurfacing of the internationalairport and a major telecommunications improvement project. While thecurrent and projected debt service in relation to exports of goods andservices is not unduly onerous (12Z in 1987), in relation to public sectorrevenues it is projected to escalate sharply from 12% in 1986 to 60X in1988 before declining to about 31Z by 1992. These ratios assume norescheduling. The Government has engaged the services of the merchantbankers Morgan, Grenfell and Company to help in rescheduling the existingarrears. This represents an important first step in normalizing Antiguaand Barbuda's debt servicing. However, to avoid a further accumulation ofarrears, it is urgent that the Government adopt measures to strengthen thepublic sector accounts. Ir addition, caution is required in contractingnew debt on commercial terms if the existing difficult situation is not tobecome totally unmanageable.

III. SECTORAL DEVELOPMENT ISSUES

9. Tourism. This sector is the backbone of Antigua's economyaccounting directly for 17X of real GDP in 1986. Its recent strong growthis responsible for the economy's robust performance, and the current lowunemployment rates. Stopover air arrivals increased at about 14.5%annually between 1982 and 1986. With accommodation capacity essentiallyunchanged during this period, room occupancy rates increased to 75%overall, reaching 90Z in the high season, just about full capacity, in someof the larger hotels. Several new hotel and condominium projects, largeand small, are underway or planned that are expected to increaseaccommodation capacity by some 2,000 rooms by 1991, doubling the presentcapacity. About 400 of these came on stream in 1988, including the 350-room Deep Bay hotel mentioned earlier. This zapid expansion of the sectorhas implications for infrastructural requirements, both social andeconomic, and some of the large public sector projects in transportationand public utilities in the last two years have been designed to supportthe sector's expansion. It also has implications for the overallcoordination and management of the sector's development. The expansion inaccommodations would have to be accompanied by matching increases inairline seats to Antigua and Barbuda, so as to avoid a fall in occupancyrates that could threaten profitability in some establishments. This callsfor stepped-up promotional efforts by the relevant entities such as the

- 4 -

Ministry of Tourism and the Hotel Association. British Airways is expectedto increase its service to Antigua, and the Government has approachedLufthansa Airlines for service from Frankfurt. Another issue is to ensureadequate supplies of trained worxars when needed to man the new hotels.This issue has primacy in view of the general labor scarcity in Antigua andBarbuda, and the particular shortage of skilled labor. It calls forcoordination between the hotel industry and the hotel training school.

10. In part the external debt issue is linked to the Government'sdirect involvement in the tourism sector. The Government has made largedirect investments in hotel projects such as the new Deep Bay Hotelmentioned above and the Halcyon Cove Hotel, financed by commercial loans.The Government believes it should play a catalytic role in providingincreased tourism facilities in addition to its role of regulation andpromotion of the tourism sector. However, it acknowledges that divestmentof some of these fixed assets would improve the public finances, and iscurrently engaged in negotiations to sell the Halcyon Cove Hotel. Onehundred units of the Deep Bay complex are al'o for sale as condominiums orvillas.

11. Agriculture. Agricultural output, which contracted annuallyduring 1981-84, began to recover in 1985 and grew by 7.4Z in 1986. Allsubsectors, including fisheries, shared in this improvement. Nevertheless,the 1986 output was still below the 1980-83 levels in real terms, and thesector now contributes only 4Z of real GDP. The Government would like tosee a revitalization of the sector and the draft White Paper on the next 5-year development plan outlines a strategy of forging stronger linkages withthe dominant tourism sector through exploiting the fisheries resources,developing the livestock potential and expanding the crops subsector on thebasis of irrigation. While there is scope for growth in the currentfishing operations in nearby waters, the industry has the potential forconsiderable expansion through deep sea f4shing. This is to be pursuedunder the aegis of a CIDA-financed regional fisheries project that wouldprovide for the construction of fishing facilities, the acquisition ofsuitable equipment, training of fishermen and marketing improvements. Tofoster livestock development, the Government in 1987 applied protectivetaxes to imported meats. This measure would have to be supplemented withstrategies to improve the quality of meats to suit the tourist market,including improved husbandry and slaughtering practices. A time periodshould be established for graduating the industry from protection to guardagainst fostering a highly inefficient industry. The issues affectingfuller development of the crop potential include, in addition to theavailability of water, severe labor constraints. Expansion of cottonproduction, for example, for the assured Japanese market is constrained bylabor availability. The Government considers that expansion of vegetableproduction would have to look towards commercial scale operations withefficient production techniques to overcome the labor problem.

12. Manufacturing. Manufacturing activity contributes more to GDPthan agriculture in Antigua and Barbuda, though still only 6Z of real GDP.For the size of the country the sector is relatively diversified,comprising production of garments, paints, furniture, household appliances,paper products and electronic components, in addition to the manufacture ofbeverages such as rum and soft drinks. Much of the light manufacturing is

- 5 -

directed at the regional market, and the sector's growth slowed in 1985after Trinidad and Tobago tightened access to i.s market for balance ofpayments reasons. As a consequence, the search for extra-regional outletsis intensifying. One establishment has begun to shift its product linefrom mattresses and bedding for CARICOH to hand-carved bedroom furniturewith a view to tapping Into a specialised niche in the US market. Thesector continues to attract new investors. A new garment factory and adetergent factory were established in 1987. construction has begun on a newassembly plant for automotive components which is expected to beginoperation in 1988, and two other manufacturers have received approval toproduce plastic containers and assemble floor polishing equipment. Antiguais a participant with four other OECS members in the Eastern CaribbeanIndustrial Promotion Service (ECIPS), newly established in Washington DCwith USAID funding. The agency is a followup of the Project DevelopmentAssistance Program (PDAP) that provided technical assistance in promotionin the individual islands over the last five years. It is headed by anOECS national and will jointly promote the participating OECS countries toprospective foreign investors. Labor availability, which already affectsexpansion of existing enterprises, could become a constraint on futuregrowth of the sector.

IV. PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTHENT PROGRAM

13. The development strategy underlying Antigua and Barbuda's publicsector investment is the provision of much needed economic and socialinfrastructure to sustain and increase the buoyancy within the tourismsector, thereby maintaining high economic growth. Major investments wereplanned for 1986 and 1987, the primary ones being the Deep Bay Hotel, thedesalinationlpower plant, the resurfacing of the airport runway and theexpansion of the telephone system. An additional major undertaking begunin 1986 is the multi-faceted St. John's Development Project, estimated tocost EC$64 million. This project, located in the downtown area of thecapital city, contemplates three kinds of activities, namely, theconstruction of a duty-free shopping complex and 25 condominiums; thedredging of the harbor and construction of a pier to accommodate two cruiseships simultaneously and relieve cargo facilities at the Port AuthorityComplex; and the establishment of a supper club/casino complex. While theshops would be leased or rented, it is planned that the condominiums wouldbe sold. An eventual urban development component is a further element ofthe project aimed at rehabilitating the capital city. The projectillustrates the Government's strategy for enhancing the tourism product.Unfortunately, the entire project, as in the case of many others, is beingappraised for its economic feasibility only subsequent to commencement ofconstruction. The other large investments mentioned above have either beencompleted (airport runway) or are nearing completion with the expectationthat they would be commissioned by early 1988.

14. Because of the above-mentioned large investments, during 1986 to1987 public sector capital outlays increased substantially as a proportionof GDP (361 of GDP compared to 71 in the preceding three-year period).With their completion in 1988, capital expenditure will revertprecipitously to the lower rates. The Government intends to formulate aPublic Sector Investment Program (PSIP) in the context of a proposed five-

-6-

year development plan for the sconomy for 1988 to 1992. As of now, thelist of identified projects for the next three years, 1988 to 1990,envisages expenditures of EC$176 million, averaging 72 of GDP per year.The focus of the present set of projects La on the directly productivesectors, which represent 772 of the total. Economac Infrastructureaccounts for 142 and social and administrative infrastructure 92. However,the program could quite possibly be expanded and the focus changed when thedevelopment plan is completed.

15. Since early in 1987, measures have been taken to strengthen theplanning function of the Ministry of Economic Development. The PlanningUnit has been given clearer terms of reference which include a new mandateto conduct a thorough study of the tourism sector and draft the five-yeardevelopment plan for the economy. During the year, the Unit also receivedtechnical assistance from the Commonwealth Fund for Technical Cooperationand from the USAID to assist in its work program. Measures are also beingdeveloped to increase consultations among the various ministries anddepartments, particularly between the Ministries of Finance and EconomicDevelopment with a view to improving coordination. The new procedureswould have to address the current diffusion affecting the formulation of aviable PSIP, with the attendant problem that projects launched do notsufficiently reflect economic decision-making. The consequences areparticularly evident in the current financial difficulties, notably withregard to debt servicing.

V. MEDIUM-TERM PROSPECTS AND EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIREMENTS

16. The investments currently taking place in tourism and relatedinfrastructure augur well for a strong industry over the medium termprovided that the economic condition of Antigua and Barbuda's main touristmarkets remains healthy. On this assumption, GDP growth is projected at 72annually in i987 and 1988, and to stabilize at around 52 over the years1989 to 1991. The economy would be further strengthened if the proposalsenvisaged for agriculture and manufacturing under the next 5-yeardevelopment plan are soundly designed and well implemented. The balance ofpayments current account d-ficit is projected to narrow from 322 of GDP in1987 to 92 by 1992 on the strength of a projected 122 annual growth intourism earnings and a decline in investment-related imports followingcompletion of proposed private sector investments in tourism. However, thedevelopments in tourism would need to be supplemented by a liberal policyof labor importation to avoid an intensification of generalized andcritical labor shortages. Such a development could lead to excessive wageand price incres 'es, in turn adversely affecting the competitiveness of thetourist industry. If this were to happen, Antigua and Barbuda would haveto address the issue of export competitiveness.

17. The Government would also have to take measures to bring theexternal debt situation under control. These include successfullyconcluding the debt rescheduling discussions begun in 1987; selling offgovernment-owned hotel assets as proposed so as to improve the Government'sliquid resources; stringently controlling government expenditures, andseeking new revenue sources so as to keep current in debt serviceobligations; appropriately increasing the tariffs of the public utilities;

- 7 -

and refraining from contracting additional external debt on comercialterms until the debt-servicing capacity has considerably improved. Thesemeasures are necessary to improve Antigua and Barbuda's creditworthinessfor conventionai lending.

18. Total financing requiremnts hiring 1988-90 are in large partdetermined by the external debt obligations. The requirement for publicsector investment is estimated to be US$65 aillion (71 of GDP). Scheduledamortisation requirements swunt to US$76 million for the three-yearperiod. To these amounts must be added the outstanding arrears at the endof 1987 o' US$41 million, making a total of US$182 million. Public sectorsavings and capital revenue primarily from sale of the Deep Baycondominiums can be expected to provide approximately US$46 million (4.72of GDP) provided that appropriate measures as outlined above are adopted tostrengthen the public finances. External commitments for ongoing projectswould provide another US$26 million. A financing gap for the three yearsof US$110 million will remain, of which US$19 million represents financingfor new projects for which the Government is seeking donor assistance.US$91 million, or 832 of the gap, arises from the *x;ernal debt obligationsand is a measure of the extent of rescheduling needed.

Public Sector Financing R.ouiremnts. 196-9UECS mii?lion

Total1988 1969 1996 (EC$ m) (USS m)

Financing Reauir.m.nts 494 162

Public Sector Investment 19o 41 S2 176 asScheduled Amortization 92 57 57 206 76Arrears (as of 1987) - - - 112 41

Sources 193 72

Public Sector Savings 24 31 41 96 soCapital Revenue 26 1 1 27 isBanking System (net) - - - - -Identified External 19 26 25 70 UC

Financing Gop Sol 11I

Source: Annex I.

ANNEX I

Public Sector Investmnt Progrm

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: WAJOR ONGOING PROJECTS AND SOURCES OF FINANCING(EC) '000)

External Financing Local FiRanciRg Toros and Conditions

Total lterest Amort. GraceCosts Amount Source Amount I Rate Period Period

Agriculture

Land Development 1734 -- -- 1734 100 --

Livestock Development 4141 4141 EOF -- -- GrantASIC Diversification Programme 1817 -- -- -- 100 --

Industry

Factory Shells 6470 -- -- 6470 100Factory Shell - Barbuda 50C -- -- 500 100

Tourisa

Deep Bay Hotel Project 197867 189000 Bank Synd. 886? 5 LIBOR+2.SZ A yrs. 5 yrs.Expansion of Halcyon Cove Hotel 9909 -- -- 9909 100St.John's Redevelopment - Shopping Coa 27648 27648 -- -- LIBOR+1.2Z6 yrs. 3 yrs.St.John's Redevelopment - Pier 35249 -- -- 35249 100St John's Redevelopment-Enter. Coampl. 31766 27000 -- 4766 15 -- -- --

English Harbour Park Project 8400 8400 CIDA -- -- Grant

Transport

Funding Scheme - Public Marks (Equip) 12423 -- 12423 100Airport Rehab. & Runway Resurfacing 29970 29970 Coem. Bank -- -- 10.25/11.27 yrs. 2 yrs.Road Rehabilitation 6100 5673 UK 427 7 GrantVillage Roads Reconstruction & Drains 2853 -- -- 2853 100Airport Terminal - Roads & Parking 708 -- -- 708 100Road Reconstruction & Improvement 30 -- -- 30 100Road Reconstruction II 10000 10000 EDF -- -- Grant

Utility Services

Telephone Expansion 35320 35320 Cable&Vire -- -- LI50R+lS 13 yrs. 2 yrs.Desalination Plant 127980 80190 Japan -- -- 8S 9 yrs. 0.5 yrs.

47790 Suppcred -- -- 141 -- 2 yrs.Mater Supply Expan. - Fort James etc. 1487 1487 UK -- -- GrantCassada Garden Drainage 1200 -- 1200 100Barbuda Electricity Generators 1030 1030 UK -- -- GrantElectricity Distribution 20126 20126 Supp. Credit -- -- 9.65Z UnknownUnknown

ANTICQA AND SAMUDA: JOR ONGOING PROJECTS AND SOURCES OF FINANCING(ECS '000) (Cont.)

Externil Financing Local Financing Terms ad Conditions

Total Interest Alort. GraceCosts Aount Source Amount I Rate Period Period

Education

Seaview Fare Govt School (INTF) 2002 280' USAID/CIS -- -- GrantRIabilitatiom of sendalls School 1657 1657 UK -- -- 6rantSchool uses (12) 1140 -- 1140 100Clare Hall School - Phase I 422 422 UK -- -- Grant

Health

Holberton Hospital 2265 -- 2265 100Nental Hospital 465 -- 465 100Family Planning Project 253 253 USAID -- -- Grant

Niscellaneous

Construction of Office Complex 6000 -- 6000 100Fire and Rescue Equipment 3650 -- 3650 100Police Stations & Equipment 694 590 UK 104 16 GrantDevelopment of Sarbuda 3885 -- 3885 100Construction of Police Stations 1586 -- 1586 100

-11-

ANTJCII AND BRUdNDA: WAJOI NEM P ECTS ND SOUtCES OF FINANCING(EC '006)

Exterual Financing Local Finaeing Terms ad Condities

total Interest Aurt. GraceCosts Aornt Source Auut Z Nate Period Puried

Agriculture

Fisheries Dvelopu mt 4020 4020 CIa -- -- CratLirestock Development 11 4381 4381 E Grant

T,'risa

Deep Bay Hotel Project - Phase II 33750 33750 UnMkogm -- -- Unkuowu U.knmkn Uino

Education

6endals - Vocation & Science Ming 450 450 UK -- -- rantAntigua Girls School - Tech. Voc. 800 800 UK -- -- GrantRehabilitation Pares School - Phase I 100 100 CIDA(NAF) -- -- Grant

Hiscellaneous

Housing - ABDS 13200 9804 Comercial 439% 33.3 n.a. Unkon UnIknou

-12- tp I of 3

*NTJSA * ARDA: PUBLIC SECTOR CWITAL EXPNITUE, 1907-90

(EC$'000)

1987 1988 1989 1990ONGOING ------------------- ------------------- -------------------PROJECTS Total Ext Local Total Ext Local Total Ext Local Total Ext Local

ONOING 397607 3U873 5614 487) 19000 45877 33893 2565? 8256 25200 25200 0::::::: ~~~~~~~::::: ::::: ::::: ::::: z:::: ::::: ::::: ::=:: ::::: ::::: ::::: :::::

CIICULTUUE 504 59 4442 5075 2000 3075 1380 10S 300 0 0 0

Land eveiopeent 1000 0 1000 578 0 578 0 0 0 0 0 0Other Aric. - Iritish Aid Projects 54 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Agric. Production - aimn (Counterpar 103 0 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0ehab. of Agric. - Livestock 450 450 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Acquisition of Land 2200 0 2200 1000 0 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0Peanut Project - Barbuda 123 0 123 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Livestock Development 80 70 10 2680 2000 680 1380 1090 300 0 0 0Cassada 6ardens Show Stands 30 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0ASIC Diversification Programe 1000 0 1000 817 0 817 0 0 0 0 0 0

U'DUSIRY 2551 1 2550 468 0 468 0 0 0 0 0 0

Factory Shell Extension - Coolidge I 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Factory Shells 2000 0 2000 48 0 468 0 0 0 0 0 0Renovation of IDO Plant 50 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Factory Shell - Oarbuda 50 0 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

TOURIM 228557 218648 9909 38799 2000 36799 15516 9300 6216 19200 19200 0

Sunset viev uest House - Barbuda 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Deep Say Hotel Project 192000 189000 3000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Expansion of Halcyon Cove Hotel 5909 0 5909 4000 0 4000 0 0 0 0 0 0English Harbour Park Project 2000 2000 0 2000 2000 0 1500 1500 0 0 0 0St.John's Redevelopeoet -Shopping Coup 27648 27648 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0St.John's Redevelopeent - Pier 1000 0 1000 32799 0 32799 1450 0 1450 0 0 0St John's Redevelopeent-Enter. Compl. 0 0 0 0 0 0 12566 7800 4766 19200 19200 0

TrMSPORTATION 12695 4943 7752 2046 0 2046 300 3000 0 6000 6000 0

Fort Authority - Capital Expenditure 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Airport Rehab. a Runnya Resurfacing 3080 1197 1883 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Equipment - Airport loprovement 16l 0 161 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Airport Ancillary Infr. 30 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Airstrip Isprovement 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Road Rehabilitation 3750 3741 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Village Roads Reconstruction & Drains 821 0 821 0 0 0 1000 1000 0 0 0 0Airport Terainal - Roads & Parking 708 0 708 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Road Reconstruction & luproveient 30 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Funding Scheme - Public Vorks (Equip) 4110 0 4110 2046 0 2046 0 0 0 0 0 0Road Reconstruction II 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 2000 0 6000 6000 0

-13- P u2 of 3

ANTICUJ & *ASUDA: PULIC SECTOI CAPITAL EXPE3ITUIE, 19e7-90

(EC5 OOO) (Cont.)

1967 196 1909 1990ONGO ING _ _ _-- _--_----_-_-_-- ___ ____iiOJECTS Total Ext Local Total Ext Local Total Eit Local Total Est Local

UTILITIES 122045 121054 "I 15128 14528 600 10400 10400 0 0 0 0

Cassada Gardens-Emergency PouerSu W 66 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Electricity Improvement 145 145 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Oesalination Plant 1/ 111472 111472 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Electricity & ater Neters 125 125 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Nater Supply Expan. -Fort James etc. 608 608 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mater -Creekside & North Shore 361 0 361 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Uater Improvement Grant 37 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Telephone Expansion 1/ 4300 4300 0 10028 10028 0 10400 10400 0 0 0 0Barbuda Electricity 6enerators 1030 1000 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Electricity Distribution 1/ 3301 3301 0 4500 4500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Cassada Garden Drainage 600 0 600 600 0 600 0 0 0 0 0 0

EDUCATION 2030 1254 776 782 422 360 2597 1877 720 0 0 0

Construction of Classroo s 143 0 143 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Reconstruction - Clare Hall School 293 293 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Basic Needs Trust Fund 118 118 0 0 0 0 1877 1877 0 0 0 0Rehabilitation of Sendalls School 343 343 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Renovation of Schools - Other 273 0 273 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0School Buses (12) 360 0 360 360 0 360 720 0 720 0 0 0Rehabilitation of Suetes School 500 500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Clare Hall School -Phase II 0 0 0 422 422 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

HEALTH CARE 1803 146 1657 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Vehicles -Health 190 0 190 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Holberton Hospital 1165 0 1165 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Nental Hospital 302 0 302 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Health and Fasily Life Unit 51 51 0 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Family Planning Project 95 95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ADHINISTRATION 3279 163 3116 2329 0 2329 1000 0 1000 0 0 0

Treasury Computers 67 0 67 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Fire and Broadcasting Equipment 577 0 577 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Govt. Buildings Reconstruction 943 0 943 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Construction of Office Complex 250 0 250 2329 0 2329 1000 0 1000 0 0 0Government Printery 163 163 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Computers - Inland Revenue & Customs 1008 0 1008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Government Printery - Equipment 271 0 271 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

31W I 3 : PAR eCTO WIcLa EEITUIC, 1W-90

(EdSWI) (Cat.)

_15w 1 1909 19mm - - --- --------- --------- --------

S TS Thbl Eit Local Total Eat Loal Total Est Local Total Eit Local

* IlK~lMIE 1963I 661%21 2I I 2W I O 0 6 S S

Fire am em Eqdpmmt 1 I 292 I 0 S I 0 O 0 0 0Pslic .vuicle 0 I I 0 0 3 I 0 0 0 0 OP.liceS ttim a 1Elpm.t 12 44 110 0 * 1 0 0 0 0 0 0PlinIu 10 I 10 0 0 0 0 0 O 0 6 6 0hwlpumt of arhe 303 35052W 0 W 0S 0 0 0 1 0Cmstrcti of slice Statims 15W 0 156 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Training - lice 22 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0ftlic EEisu t 37 * 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Fire lripa Egiomt 051 0 051 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0trismo Eqiip t 216 0 210 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Leulo o Noiosi - 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Othr 9329 0 9329 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1iw 1988 199 1ff0KM-l ----------------- ---------------- __ __-_-_

PrOJECTS Total Est Local Total Ext Local Total Ext Local Total Ext Local- --- - - - - - - - -- --- - -- - - -__ _- - - -- - ------------------ - - ----- - - ------ - -- - -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- ----

NEU 0 0 0 3661 38219 443 7152 6653 499 6629 6174 455

ASRICULTUIC 0 0 0 1340 1340 0 2373 2208 165 2122 199 125

Fisheries Dwloput 0 0 0 1340 1340 0 1340 1340 0 1340 1340 0Livstockk kwelopmt I 0 0 0 0 0 0 1033 868 165 782 657 125

TOMh3N 0 0 0 33750 33750 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

IOp la 00tel Project - Phs II 0 0 0 33750 33750 0 0 0 0 0 0 u

EOJCATION 0 0 0 130 1350 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

WIadls - Vocatief & Science iMe 0 0 0 450 450 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Atigu Cirls Scsosl - Tch. Voc. 0 0 0 Bo0 Bo 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Ithabilitatiruares Schl - Paso I 0 0 0 100 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

NISCELLNIEOUS 0 0 0 2221 1778 443 4779 4445 334 4507 4177 330 0

Nousiag - mm 0 0 0 2221 1778 443 4779 4445 334 4507 4177 330

TOTAL-ALL PROJECTS 397687 346873 50814 103538 57218 46320 41045 32310 8735 31829 31374 455

NM Items:1/ Cm estimte expod itare* - Estimatesp - Projectio

- 15 -

AM= II

Statistical Appendix

l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~i 1

- 16 -

ANTIOGA AID ARBUDA

STATISTICAL APPVIDIX

TabSl of Contente

Table No.

1 Sectoral Origin of GDP at Current Prices, 1980-86

2 Sectoral Origin of GDP at Constant Prices, 1980-86

3 Balance of Payments, 1980-87

4 Actual and Projected Balance of Payments, 1986-92

5 Exports by S.I.T.C. Section, 1983-87

6 Imports by S.I.T.C. Section, 1983-87

7 Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt, 1983-87

8 Central Government Revenue, 1982-87

9 Central Government Operations, 1982-87

- 17 -

Tab'- 1: ANTIUAM AND SIU3DA - SECTORA1 ORIGIN OF GDP AT CURRENT PRICES, 190-86(ECS Nillion)

prel1980 1981 1902 1983 1904 1905 1906

Agriculture 18.3 19.6 19.7 21.8 19.3 23.2 24.6

Crops 3.3 4.5 5.5 5.1 4.9 7.2 7.3Livestock 6.0 7.6 8.4 8.6 5.2 6,3 6.5Forestry 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7Fishing 8.6 7.1 5.4 7.6 8.0 9.0 10.1

Industry 46.6 53.4 46.3 50.7 63.1 77.7 101.8

Mining and Quarrying 1.5 1.7 1.5 2.3 3.0 4.6 9.9Manufacturing 13.7 14.6 16.8 17.6 19.3 20.3 21.5Construction 23.2 27.7 20.4 20.5 28.3 35.7 50.6Electricity and Hater 8.2 9.4 7.6 10.3 12.5 17.2 19.9

Services 189.6 211.3 244.8 275.0 310.2 356.S 383.5

Wholesale and Retail Trade 30.6 33.4 36.4 38.7 43.1 48.2 52.6Hotels and Restaurants 35.8 37.3 40.8 45.5 58.7 73.5 81.0Transport 29.6 33.3 36.2 40.4 43.9 52.8 58.6Road Transport 14.2 15.9 15.6 17.4 19.6 22.6 24.4Sea Transport 4.4 5.0 5.7 5.7 6.5 8.5 9.8Air Transport 11.0 12.4 14.9 17.3 17.7 21.7 24.4Communications 12.0 14.9 20.7 23.1 27.1 28.6 30.5Banks and Insurance 15.7 18.7 22.3 23.8 28.7 31.3 33.5Real Estate & Housing 26.5 29.9 34.4 41.5 45.8 48.6 51.5Government Services 33.0 37.0 47.5 50.9 51.6 60.4 61.7Other Services 16.7 19.9 23.4 28.1 33.2 39.2 43.9Less Imputed 10.3 13.1 16.9 17.0 21.9 26.1 30.0Service Charges

GDP at factor cost 254.5 284.3 310.8 347.5 392.6 457.4 509.9

Net Indirect Taxes 40.2 46.9 56.9 58.6 66.9 77.2 112.3

GDP at Market Prices 294.7 331.2 367.7 406.0 459.5 534.4 622.0

Source: OECS, September 1987

- 18 -

Table 2: AHTICUA AM UUM - SECTORAL OIIIN OF GUP AT CONSTANT PRICES, 1980-86(EC$ million at 1977 prices)

prel1900 191 1982 1983 1984 1985 1906

------------------------- _ -----

Agriclture 13.9 12.4 11.7 11.6 9.3 9.4 10.1…---------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ---- -----

Crops 2.2 2.5 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6Livestock 5.5 5.6 6.2 6.4 3.8 4.3 4.5Forestry 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4Fishing 5.9 4.0 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.3 2.6

Iandstry 35.9 40.8 33.9 34.2 38.3 43.5 54.0

Mining and Quarrying 1.2 1.1 0.9' 1.1 1.6 2.5 5.6Nanufacturing 11.4 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.2 15.8Construction 17.2 18.9 11.7 10.8 14.0 16.8 22.7Electricity and Miter 6.1 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.0 9.0 9.9

Services 14i.4 145.8 153.3 170.6 183.7 196.9 205.6…

Wholesale and Retail Trade 20.6 20.6 21.6 21.9 23.2 24.5 26.0Hotels and Restaurants 25.9 25.9 26.1 30.8 38.9 42.7 45.7Transport 24.4 24.4 24.7 27.8 30.2 32.6 34.7Road Transport 10.8 11.1 10.3 11.4 11.7 12.5 13.2Sea Transport 3.1 3.1 3.8 4.5 4.6 5.1 5.5Air Transport 10.5 10.2 10.6 11.9 13.9 15.0 16.1Coomunications 10.0 11.7 16.0 21.5 21.6 22.8 23.3Banks and Insurance 13.9 14.9 13.6 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.7Real Estate & Housing 20.7 21.5 22.5 23.2 23.6 24.5 25.5Government Services 21.9 21.5 21.9 23.4 22.8 24.7 25.2Other Services 13.0 14.8 14.9 16.3 17.3 18.7 18.9Less Imputed 8.9 9.4 8.0 8.9 9.4 9.8 10.4Service Charges

GDP at factor cost 191.2 199.0 198.9 216.4 231.3 249.8 269.7

Net indirect taxes 30.2 32.8 36.4 36.5 39.4 42.2 59.4

GDP at market prices 221.4 231.9 235.3 252.8 270.8 292.0 329.1

RORUTH RATE (GDP. fc) 7.7 4.1 -0.1 8.8 6.9 8.0 8.0GDP DEFLATOR (1977:100) 133.1 142.8 156.2 160.6 169.7 183.1 189.1

Source: OECS, September 1987.

- 19 -

Table 3: ANTIBU AND BAWUDA - IALANCE OF PAYJENTS, 1980-1907(USS Killion)

prel est1900 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 198?

Exports--Goods 59.5 51.4 49.3 36.5 35.2 20.3 28.0 30.8Imports--Goods -126.2 -137.8 -159.4 -148.7 -165.2 -192.2 -316.3 -271.9

Nonfactor services(net) 34.0 39.8 67.3 92.9 116.9 134.3 145.9 168.8Travel (net) 35.5 40.5 67.4 91.9 116.3 134.4 152.2 171.2Other NFS (net) -0.7 -0.7 -0.1 1.0 0.6 -0.1 -6.3 -2.4

Resource Balance (GINFS) -31.9 -46.6 -42.8 -19.3 -13.1 -29.6 -142.4 -79.3

Net Factor Income -0.5 -1.2 -4.4 -0.3 -0.8 -7.7 -8.3 -19.0of which:Interest Public Debt -2.3 -3.1 -4.3 -3.5 -2.9 -2.1 -2.2 -12.0Other Factor Services (net) 1.8 1.9 -0.1 3.2 2.1 -5.6 -6.1 -7.0

Private Transfers (net) 7.0 7.8 8.3 10.0 11.9 12.5 13.5 14.1

Current Account -25.4 , -40.0 -38.9 -9.6 -2.0 -24.8 -137.2 -84.2

Official Transfers andGrants 3.1 2.6 0.7 0.6 2.6 1.7 3.3 2.6Official Capital (net) 4.0 14.3 6.7 -1.3 -4.9 -4.7 109.4 56.4Coamercial Banks -1.3 0.3 8.6 -2.7 -0.6 9.4 8.0 -1.7Private Capital 1/ 17.2 22.0 20.2 6.8 4.5 15.5 19.8 20.4

Capital Account 23.0 39.2 36.2 3.4 1.6 21.9 140.5 77.7

overall balance -2.4 -0.8 -2.7 -6.2 -0.4 -2.9 3.3 -6.5

Financing 2.4 0.8 3.2 6.2 0.4 2.9 -3.3 6.5

Change in govetnentForeign Assets -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0

Change in ImputedReserves Assets 2.0 -0.6 -1.2 -1.4 -6.9 -3.2 -9.0 -1.8

Official Payments Arrears 0.6 1.5 4.4 7.6 7.5 6.2 5.8 8.3Principal 0.2 0.3 1.3 4.8 5.6 5.1 4.3 3.4Interest 0.4 1.2 3.1 2.8 1.9 1.1 1.5 4.7

1/ Includes errors and omissions.

SOURCE: Ninistry of Finance, Statistics Division; Eastern Caribbean Central Bank; and IF estimates.

-20- A

Table 4i #ATI1A SAN HA - ACTU AND PR CTED DAACE OF PAYNENTS, 1986-1M1US Nillion)

Prel. Est.161 1967 96 1M 199 11 1M

Eswts--Goods 26.0 30.6 32.1 33.3 34.7 36.1 37.5lmports--Bouds -316.3 -278.9 -236.4 -335.1 -327.5 -344.6 -372.2

Srwvices (met) 137.4 149.8 170.1 192.8 219.2 253.3 277.0Touris 152.2 171.2 200.7 224.4 250.5 279.5 301.7Interest -2.2 -12.0 -20.4 -20.5 -19.0 -17.3 -15.6Other -12.4 -9.4 -10.0 -11.1 -12.3 -8.9 -9.1

Private Transfers (net) 13.5 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.2 18.0

Current Account -137.2 -94.2 -71.4 -93.4 -57.3 -38.2 -39.7

Official 6rants 3.3 2.6 4.0 2.2 1.3 1.1 1.1Official Loans 115.8 72.2 3.0 7.3 7.8 - -Amortisation (scheduled) -6.4 -15.8 -34.0 -21.0 -21.1 -20.9 -20.9Official Obligations (overdue) - - -41.3 - - - -Coomercial lanks (net) 8.0 -1.7 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6Private Capital I/ 19.8 20.4 - - - - -Other (intl priv) - - 142.7 108.2 73.1 62.1 63.7

Capital Account 140.5 77.7 73.5 95.8 60.4 41.6 43.3

Overall Blance 3.3 -6.5 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.4 3.6

Financing -3.3 6.5 -2.1 -2.4 -3.1 -3.4 -3.6

Change in governuent -0.1 - - - - - -Foreign Assets

Change in Imputed -9.0 -1.8 -2.1 -2.4 -3.1 -3.4 -3.6Reserve Assetsibficial Payments Arrears 5.8 8.3 - - - - -

1/ Includes errors and omissions.

SOURCE: Ninistry of Finance, Statistics Division; Eastern Caribbean Central Dank; and staff estimates.

Table 5: LANTIMD LAS hJJCUIt - EXPOMTS IV S.I.T.1. SECTION, 1903-07(ISO lilliom)

piel est poi1963 1964 191S I1 1914 1w

JOlLA EXPORTS 36.5 3S.2 2.3 26.1 29.2

_mstic Exwts 14.2 9.2 6.1 10.1 11.0

Faud aW live minls 0.5 6.5 0.3 6.3 6.3kvoerags ad tobacce 0.5 6.4 0.2 0.3 6.3Crude rterils, inedible,

except fuel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Fuwl 2/ 3.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.8Cheicals 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6Nmufactured goods 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8Naciwery ad transport equip. 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.8Nuufactured articles 7.2 5.7 5.8 5.0 5.4Niscellaneous 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total k-Exports 22.3 26.0 20.2 18.0 18.2

Food and live anisals 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1Beverages and tobacco 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Crude materials, inedible,

except fuel 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1Fuel 3/ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Chemicals 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2

anufactured goods 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4Nachinery and transport equip. 5.1 4.4 2.0 3.1 3.2

anufactured articles 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.1Niscellneous 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ke-exports of petro products 4/ 15.1 19.8 16.0 13.0 13.1

AS PERCENT OF W

Total Exports 24.3 20.7 14.3 12.2 11.9omestic Exports 9.4 5.4 4.1 4.4 4.3

le-Exports 14.9 15.3 10.2 7.8 7.1---- --- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- ---- --- --- ---- --- ---- ---_ -

1/ Based on actual data for the first six conths of the year.2/ Represents exports of refined prtroleua products by the

Vest Indies Oil Comany which ceased operation in 1902.3/ Set equal to zero to avoid double courwting.4/ kerived from data provided by the VIOiC and Texaco; includes

estinmted sales of jet fuel and bunkering.

SOURCE: Ninistry of Finance, Statistics Division; and INF estimates.

-22-

table 6: ANTIOU AND SISUDA - INPOATS BY S.I.T.C. SECTION, 1983-87(s$ Klillion)

prel est proj1983 1984 1985 1/ 1986 1987

TOTAL WORTS 148.7 165.1 207.9 316.4 278.9

Food and live animal: 21. 1 25.1 28.4 49.8 49.4levweages and tobacco 3.8 4.3 5.4 7.9 8.0Crude materials, inedible except fuel 3.0 2.5 3.4 5.0 4.4Ninerals and fuel lubricants 0.9 1.4 2.7 2.3 2.0Animal and vegetable oils 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7Chemicals 7.3 8.4 9.0 15.1 13.3Nanufactured materials 14.5 16.6 28.3 55.2 56.0NKchimery and transports equip. 19.0 28.8 44.5 69.7 68.7mnufactured articles 14.1 11.9 19.4 38.3 40.5

Niscellanous goods 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2Oil imports 2/ 24.5 31.6 30.8 32.0 35.0lMrecorded imworts 40.2 34.0 35.6 40.0 0.7

AS PERCENT OF 60P

Total lports 98.9 97.1 105.0 137.3 107.7

I/ ased on actual data for the first half oF the year.2/ Derived from data proviced by VIOC and Texaco.

SOURC: Ninistry of Finace, Statistics Division; Vest Indies Oil Companty;ad IIF estimates.

-23-

TabJe 7: ANTJGU & SAISIA: PMILIC AM PSICLY CUMINTEEO EXTEII^MI EST 1/, 1963-07(USS million)

prel est prel1913 1964 1915 196 1967

1. Total Debt Outstandins, includinginterest arrears (end year) 62.7 587 62.2 10.7 245.4

2. SchXeded obligatioos on debtcontracted as of end 1997 9.5 10.0 864 3.6 27.3

Interest 3.5 2.9 2.1 2.2 12.0Principal 6.0 7.1 6.5 6.4 15.8

3. Cash paysents on debt obligations 1.9 2.6 2.4 2.7 19.6Interest 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.6 7.3Pripcipal 1.2 1.5 1.4 2.1 12.3

4. Annual change of arrears 7.6 7.4 6.2 5.9 8.2Interest 2.8 1.8 1.1 1.6 4.?Principal 4.8 5.6 5.1 4.3 3.5

5. Valuation adiustment onoutstanding stock of arrears -2.2 -4.0 1.2 2.1 0.4Interest -1.2 -3.4 0.1 0.5 0.0Principal -1.0 -0.6 1.1 1.6 0.4

6. Stock of arrears outstandingat end year 2/ 13.8 17.2 24.7 32.6 41.3Interest 7.0 S.4 6.7 8.7 13.5Principal 6.8 11.8 10.0 23.9 27.8

AS PERCENT OF SG

Debt outstanding/GDP 41.7 34.5 31.4 78.4 94.8Stock of arrears/lDP 9.2 10.1 12.5 14.1 15.9Debt service/exports, goods & services 6 9 6.0 4.8 4.4 12.6Debt service/Public sector revenue 24.1 21.4 16.3 12.3 41.1Average interest rate 3/ 6.5 5.2 3.9 4.0 7.0

1/ Nedium and long term debt. Excludes debt held by ECCJ.2/ Equal to stock of arrears at end of preceding year plus lines 4 and 5.3/ Total interest obligations as percentage of outstanding principal.

SOURCE: Iinistry of Finance, IF estiates

-24-

Table 8: ANTIi6A AND BARDUCA: CENTRAL GOVERIEKNT REVENUE, 1982-87(ECS *illion!

prel Mit1962 1963 1964 1995 199 1967

D1"ES'IC CURRENT REVENUE 93.8 97.8 98.8 113.4 150.8 162.3

Direct taxln 11.8 11.7 15.5 21.7 20.3 22.7

Inwome Tax 10.7 10.3 13.9 20.0 19.4 20.9Of which: Corporation Tax 10.2 9.7 13.0 19.3 17.4 18.0

Property Tax 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8

Indirect Taxes 57.1 58.5 66.9 77.1 112.4 119.2

Consumption taxes a/ 21.5 21.0 23.8 26.0 38.9 41.0Import duties 18.9 18.3 22.0 26.2 31.3 33.3Hotel and quest taxes 4.6 5.5 6.4 8.9 9.8 11.0Travel tax 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.8 1.8Embarkation tax 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.4Teleco.munication tax 1.2 1.9 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.2Stamp duties 2.6 1.6 3.2 3.7 5.6 6.0Foreign currency levy 3.4 3.8 3.6 1.8 6.9 5.7Other 3.2 4.5 4.1 5.7 13.1 14.8

Nontax revenue 24.9 17.6 16.4 14.6 18.1 20.4

Currency profits 2.7 2.0 1.6 2.0 3.3 3.2US bases 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2Licensen and fees 2.3 2.8 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.9Post Office revenue bI 4.7 1.6 1.7 0.8 0.8 0.8Interest earned on counterpartexternal deposits 8.9 4.7 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other 2.1 2.3 2.9 4.5 6.0 7.3

a/ Includes surcharge.b/ Includes philatelic sales.

SOURCE: Ministry of Finance; Treasury; IMF estimates.

-25-

Pa I f 2

Table It ATIA AN USAIT CEITIAL 110_N WERATI, 132-197(ECS Glii)

1912 1933 19W

Ca Arrows Acr. Co ArNrws kcr. Cb Arrers kcr.

lubstic Cwrut Revenue 93.1 0.0 93.8 87.8 0.0 87.8 9.3 0.0 3.3

Corrt Expepditeres 39.3 17.3 106.6 II.2 14.1 ".3 94.6 14.3 10.9

Peruual Emolats 43.2 -- 43.2 43.9 -- 43.9 45. -- 45.5Established 24.5 -- 24.5 25.4 - 25.4 27.4 - 27.4Nb-nteablished 18.7 -- 18.7 13.5 -- 18.5 18.1 - 18.1

Social S ecuity -- 3.7 3.7 -- 3.7 3.7 1.3 2.1 3.4Nidical Ienefits -- 2.3 2.3 -- 2.4 2.4 -- 2.3 2.3Goods and Services 21.4 2.0 23.4 22.6 0.6 23.4 26.9 5.1 32.0P-nsions and Grants 4.4 -- 4.4 5.5 -- 5.5 5.4 - 5.4Internst 18.5 7.2 25.7 10.9 7.2 18.1 12.7 4.4 17.1Forcion 11.6 7.1 18.7 5.6 6.0 11.6 5.8 3.0 8.8Doestic 6.9 0.1 7.0 5.3 1.2 6.5 6.9 1.4 8.3Public Sector Transfers 0.3 -- 0.3 0.2 - 0.2 0.1 -- 0.1International Transfers 1.2 -- 1.2 1.5 - 1.5 1.4 - 1.4Private Sector Transfers 0.3 -- 0.3 0.6 - 0.6 1.3 -- 1.3Extra-budgetary expenditure 0.0 -- 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 - 0.0

Current Account lalance 4.5 -17.3 -12.9 2.6 -14.1 -11.5 4.2 -14.3 -10.1

Capital Receipts 3.8 0.0 3.8 1.7 0.0 1.7 10.4 0.0 10.4

Capital Expenditure 40.6 0.0 40.6 12.4 0.0 12.4 19.5 0.0 18.5

Fixed Investments 32.6 -- 32.6 9.6 -- 9.6 10.8 -- 10.8Purchased Land 8.0 - 8.0 0.8 -- 0.8 6.2 - 6.2Net Lending -- - 0.0 2.0 - 2.0 1.5 - 1.5Capital Transfers -- -- -- -- -- -- -

Overall Deficit -32.3 -17.3 -49.6 -8.1 -14.1 -22.2 -3.9 -14.3 -18.2

Financing 32.3 17.3 49.6 8.1 14.1 22.2 3.9 14.3 18.2

Total Foreign Fin.(netl 19.7 -2.9 15.8 0.5 -10.8 -10.3 -1.7 -12.2 -13.9Drawings on Foreign Loans 22.5 - 22.5 4.1 -- 4.1 2.1 -- 2.1Change in Foreign ssets -0.1 -- -0.1 -0.1 - -0.1 -0.5 - -0.5Amort. of External Debt -3.7 -2.9 -6.6 -3.5 -10.9 -14.3 -3.3 -12.2 -15.5

Oosestic Finincing(net) 13.6 - 13.6 7.7 0.0 7.7 5.6 0.0 5.6Commercial Banks 7.3 - 7.3 7.9 -- 7.9 -12.5 -- -12.5ECCB 2.0 -- ;0 -- -- 0.0 20.9 -- 20.9Rest of Public Sector 1.9 -- 1.9 0.1 -- 0.1 1.8 -- 1.8Other Private Sector 2.4 -- 2.4 -0.3 - -0.3 -4.6 - 4.6Buildup of Arrears - 20.2 20.2 - 24.9 24.9 0.0 26.5 26.5

r ce: Ministry of Finance; IW estimates.

-26-

Pap 2 e 2

Table i ITIIM S MfIIAt COWU MIIMn OPUATIM, 1932-1917(EC sillia) (Cwt.)

19 Prel 1916 Estiet, 1907

Cad Arres lccr. Cna Arrws ccr. Cub Arrows kcr.

_tic Cwrrunt km" 113.4 0.0 113.4 150.3 0.0 150.1 12.3 0.0 162.3

Curut Expueitur 106.1 13.5 119.6 129.0 10.3 139.3 156.3 10.7 147.5

Perual Easluests 53.5 -- 53.5 59.3 -- 59.0 75.6 - 75.6Establidwe 31.4 - 31.4 35.1 -- 35.1 43.0 - 43.0Uin-tahlis&.d 22.1 -- 22.1 24.7 -- 24.7 32.6 - 32.6

mSKIal Scurity 0.7 3.6 4.3 0.3 4.5 4.8 1.0 4.9 5.9Nedical enefits -- 2.7 2.7 1.7 3.0 4.7 -- 3.8 3.8Beas and Services 30.0 3.5 33.5 39.0 -- 39.0 47.5 0.0 47.5Feuns and rants 5.1 -- S.1 7.1 3.3 10.4 8.9 2.0 10.9lIterest 9.3 3.7 13.0 11.9 3.3 15.2 15.0 3.0 19.0Fareip 1.9 2.2 4.1 1.7 1.7 3.4 4.4 2.0 6.4mnstic 7.4 1.5 8.9 10.2 1.6 11.8 10.6 - 10.6

Public Sector Trnsfers 0.0 - 0.0 0.1 -- 0.1 1.5 - 1.5lvternational Tracfers 2.8 -- 2.8 2.1 -- 2.1 2.0 - 2.0Private Sector Transfers 1.0 -- 1.0 0.4 -- 0.4 1.3 - 1.8Estra-budjetary eup"diture 3.7 -- 3.7 8.3 - 8.3 3.5 -- 3.5

Current Account alance 7.3 -13.5 -6.2 21.8 -10.9 11.0 5.5 -10.7 -5.2

Capital Receipts 2.3 0.0 2.3 7.1 0.0 7.1 9.0 0.0 9.0

Capital Expenditure 13.3 0.0 13.3 69.5 0.0 69.5 23.1 0.0 23.1

Fixed lomvsteents 12.7 -- 12.7 58.9 -- 58.9 16.7 - 16.7Purchased Land 1.9 -- 1.9 10.6 -- 10.6 2.5 - 2.5Net Leding -1.2 - -1.2 0.0 -- 0.0 0.1 -- 0.1Capital Transfers - - -- - -- 3.6

ilvrall Deficit -3.7 -13.5 -17.2 -40.6 -10.9 -51.4 -8.6 -10.7 -19.3

Finacing 3.7 13.5 17.2 40.6 10.8 51.4 8.6 10.7 19.3

Total Foerign Fin.(net) -2.7 -10.0 -12.7 25.2 -7.4 17.8 -1.2 -1.7 -2.9Dravings o Foreign Loans -- -- 0.0 25.7 -- 25.7 1.2 -- 1.2Change in Foreign Assts -0.2 -- -0.2 -0.2 -- -0.2 -- - 0.0Aert. of External Debt -2.5 -10.0 -12.5 -0.2 -7.4 -7.6 -2.5 -1.7 -4.2

Domestic Financing(net) 6.4 - 6.4 15.3 -- 15.3 9.8 - 9.8Coooercial anks 2.3 -- 2.3 6.5 -- 6.5 7.5 - 7.5ECC 1,5 -- 1.5 3.1 -- 3.1 -- - 0.0Rest of Public Sector 0.2 0.2 0.9 -- 0.9 -- -- 0.0Other Private Sector 2.4 - 2.4 4.8 -- 4.8 2.3 -- 2.3

Buildup of Arrears 0.0 23.5 23.5 -- 18.2 18.2 -- 12.4 12.4_ _ _ _~~~~~~ - - - -- - -- - - -- -- - -- -- - -- -__ -- - -------------------- _ _

*0£ aus