renting and retail in the uk november 22 2016...nov 22, 2016  · retail in the uk: shifting...

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1 NOVEMBER 22, 2016 DEBORAH WEINSWIG, MANAGING DIRECTOR, FUNG GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. Deep Dive: Renting and Retail in the UK: Shifting Property Market Set to Impact on How Shoppers Spend DEBORAH WEINSWIG Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology [email protected] US: 646.839.7017 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 The UK is seeing more people rent rather than buy a home, as rising housing costs are pricing many potential first-time buyers out of the residential property market. This report looks at the key impacts we are seeing, and will see in future years, on the retail sector and consumer spending as a result of more renters. 1) Renters do not invest in their homes: Home-improvement stores will need to skew their offerings toward professional tradesmen, while small-ticket homewares and low-cost furniture are likely to appeal to renters. 2) Tenants have less space than owners: We expect this to boost the market for small furniture and space-saving solutions, as well as underpin growth for spending on services—as renters look to “escape from home.” 3) Renting makes it difficult to start a family: The average age of mothers is being pushed up, and this will impact on the shape of the maternity and baby-product markets and likely suppress demand for traditional big, family shopping trips amongst those in their 20s and 30s.

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Page 1: Renting and Retail in the UK November 22 2016...Nov 22, 2016  · Retail in the UK: Shifting Property Market Set to Impact on How Shoppers Spend DEBORAH WEINSWIG ... , while small-ticket

1

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Deep Dive: Renting and

Retail in the UK: Shifting Property

Market Set to Impact on How

Shoppers Spend

D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G M a n a g i n g D i r e c t o r ,

F u n g G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m

U S : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7 H K : 8 5 2 . 6 1 1 9 . 1 7 7 9

C N : 8 6 . 1 8 6 . 1 4 2 0 . 3 0 1 6

TheUK is seeingmore people rent rather than buy a home, asrising housing costsarepricingmany potential first-timebuyersout of the residential propertymarket. This report looks at thekey impactswe are seeing, and will see in future years, on theretailsectorandconsumerspendingasaresultofmorerenters.

1)Rentersdonot invest in theirhomes: Home-improvementstoreswillneedtoskewtheirofferingstowardprofessionaltradesmen, while small-ticket homewares and low-costfurniturearelikelytoappealtorenters.

2)Tenants have less space than owners: We expect this toboost the market for small furniture and space-savingsolutions, as well as underpin growth for spending onservices—asrenterslookto“escapefromhome.”

3)Rentingmakesitdifficulttostartafamily:Theaverageageofmothers isbeingpushedup,andthiswill impactontheshapeofthematernityandbaby-productmarketsandlikelysuppress demand for traditional big, family shopping tripsamongstthoseintheir20sand30s.

Page 2: Renting and Retail in the UK November 22 2016...Nov 22, 2016  · Retail in the UK: Shifting Property Market Set to Impact on How Shoppers Spend DEBORAH WEINSWIG ... , while small-ticket

2

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

TABLEOFCONTENTS

EXECUTIVESUMMARY.......................................................................................................................................3

INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................................................5

1.THERENTINGREVOLUTION............................................................................................................................5

HOUSINGBECOMESLESSAFFORDABLE.........................................................................................................5PRIVATERENTINGBOOMSAMONGYOUNGERAGEGROUPS.........................................................................7

2.THEIMPACTONCONSUMERSPENDING.........................................................................................................9

RENTERSDONOTINVESTINTHEIRHOMES...................................................................................................9TENANTSHAVELESSSPACE..........................................................................................................................13RENTINGMAKESITDIFFICULTTOSTARTAFAMILY.......................................................................................14

KEYTAKEAWAYS...............................................................................................................................................16

Page 3: Renting and Retail in the UK November 22 2016...Nov 22, 2016  · Retail in the UK: Shifting Property Market Set to Impact on How Shoppers Spend DEBORAH WEINSWIG ... , while small-ticket

3

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

EXECUTIVESUMMARYRisingUKhousingpricesaredrivingmanypotentialfirst-timebuyersoutoftheresidentialpropertymarket,andthismeansthatever-morepeoplearerentingthehomesinwhichtheylive.

In2015,some36.5%oftheUKpopulationwasrentingtheirhomes,upfrom30% in 2005. The biggest shift toward renting has been seen among agegroupsattheyoungerendofthescale.Theproportionofthoseaged25-34thatrentfromprivatelandlordsrosebyaround50%between2008-09and2014-15, to reach 45.5%. The proportion of those aged 35-44 that rentprivatelyjumpedbymorethanhalftoreach24.1%in2014-15.

Evenifmostrenterseventuallygetonthehousingladder,theshiftsintheproperty market have created a larger body of tenants, as people arerentingtheirhomesforlonger.

We identify the following impacts on the retail sector and on consumerspendingasaresultofthisshift.

Onetrendunifiesthethreethemesthatwediscussinthisreport:rentingmeansmoreconsumersaredeferringresponsibilityandretainingtheshoppingandspendinghabitsofyoungpeopleforlonger.

Source:Shutterstock

Page 4: Renting and Retail in the UK November 22 2016...Nov 22, 2016  · Retail in the UK: Shifting Property Market Set to Impact on How Shoppers Spend DEBORAH WEINSWIG ... , while small-ticket

4

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Figure1.KeyImpactsfromtheRentingRevolution

Source:FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Conclusion:One trendunifies the three themes thatwediscuss in this report: rentingmeans more consumers are deferring responsibility and retaining theshoppingandspendinghabitsofyoungpeopleforlonger.

• DIYincrementallyreplacedbyprofessionaltradespeople.• Increasesdemandfromrentersforlow-costfurnitureandsmall-eckethomewares.

Rentersdonotinvestintheirhomes

• Boostsdemandforsmallfurnitureandspace-savingsolueons.• Promptsspendingonservicesto"escapefromhome."

Tenantshavelessspacethanowners

• Brandsandretailerswillneedtotargetslightlyolderparents.• Smallerhouseholdsmeansmoresmall-basketshoppingamongconsumersintheir20sand30s.

Renengmakesitdifficulttostartafamily

Source:Shutterstock

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5

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Pricedoutofbuyingtheirfirsthome,ever-moreBritsintheir20sand30sarerenting.

INTRODUCTIONThewayBritsliveischanging:moreandmoreBritishconsumersarebecoming tenants rather than homeowners. Priced out of buyingtheirfirsthome,ever-morepeopleintheir20sand30sarebecominglong-term tenants.Whilemany of these renterswill eventually geton the property ladder—though at an older age than previousgenerations—many look like they will be renting for life. They are“GenerationRent,”asthemediahavedubbedthem.

In this report,we explore key impacts for the retail sector and consumerspendingthatweareseeing,andwillseeinfutureyears,asaresultofmorerenters.Wefocusonthethreethemesoutlinedbelow:

1.Tenantsdonotinvestintheirhomes.

2.Tenantshavelessspacethanowners.

3.Rentingmakesitdifficulttostartafamily.

Beforethat,thefirstsectionofthisreportdetailsthenumbersbehindtheUK’s“rentingrevolution.”

1.THERENTINGREVOLUTION

HousingBecomesLessAffordable Aboom inbuyers fromoverseas, low interest ratesboosting assetprices,highimmigrationlevels,apaucityofsocialhousingandrestrictiveplanninglawshaveconspiredtofuelasurgeinUKhousingprices.

The result is thatmorepotential first-timebuyers arebeingpricedout ofthe UK residential property market. In turn, this means that ever-morepeoplearerentingthehomesinwhichtheylive.

Nationally,asof3Q16,theratioofaveragefirst-timebuyerpropertypricesto average earningsmatched the pre-recession peak of 5.4. The ratio hasneverrisenabovethislevelinNationwideBuildingSociety’sdataset,whichrunsbackto1983.Asof3Q16,justfiveofthe13UKregionshadaratiooflessthanfourtimesearningstohousingprices.

Thenationalpicture isovershadowedbyLondon,where theaverage first-time-buyerhomeisnowmorethantentimestheaveragesalary.Thisisalsoarecordhigh.

Aboominbuyersfromoverseas,lowinterestratesboostingassetprices,highimmigrationlevels,apaucityofsocialhousingandrestrictiveplanninglawshaveconspiredtofuelasurgeinhousingprices.

Source:Shutterstock

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6

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Figure2.UK:RatioofFirst-Time-BuyerHousingPricestoEarnings,byYear

Source:Nationwide/OfficeforNationalStatistics(ONS)

Theeffectsofthisareevidentinthebreakdownofhousingtenure.In2015,some 36.5% of theUK populationwas renting their homes, up from 30%backin2005.Theprivaterentedsectorhasmoppedupthesharelostfromhomeownership;theproportionofBritslivinginsocialrentedhousinghasremainedbroadlylevel(excludingablipbetween2005and2006).

Figure3.UK:DistributionofPopulationbyTenureStatus

Source:Eurostat

5.4

10.3

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

MulYp

le

UK London

In2015,some36.5%oftheUKpopulationwasrentingtheirhomes,upfrom30%in2005.

44.0

45.7

46.9

45.9

44.5

43.9

41.9

38.3

37.4

37.2

36.1

26.0

25.7

26.4

26.6

25.4

26.0

26.0

28.4

27.3

27.3

27.5

15.9

9.5 8.3

9.4

12.5

11.9

13.3

15.3

17.3

17.5

18.2

14.1

19.1

18.4

18.2

17.6

18.1

18.8

18.0

18.1

18.0

18.3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

TenantatReduced/SocialRent

TenantatMarketRent

OwnerWithNoMortgage

OwnerWithMortgage

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7

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

PrivateRentingBoomsAmongYoungerAgeGroupsThe biggest shift toward renting has been seen among age groups at theyounger endof the scale, further confirming that the growth in renting isbeingdrivenbypotentialfirst-timebuyersbeingpricedoutofthemarket.

Theproportionofthoseaged25-34thatrentfromprivatelandlordsrosebyaround50%between2008-09and2014-15.Theproportionof thoseaged35-44thatrentprivatelyjumpedbymorethanhalf.

Figure4.England:PrivateTenantsasaPercentageofAgeGroups(%)

Source:EnglishHousingSurvey,DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment

A longer view from a different source underlines the structural nature ofthis shift toward renting. The share of those in their early 30s that areprivately renting, for example, is now triple (ormore) what it was in the1970s,1980sand1990s.

Figure5.UK:ShareofIndependentHouseholdersbyHousingTenureandAge(%)

Source:ONS

58.162.5 64.8 68.0 67.7 65.4

70.7

31.036.4

40.6 40.9 44.6 48.2 45.5

15.6 17.1 18.5 20.5 21.4 23.6 24.1

010203040506070

2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15

16–24 25–34 35–44 45–54

55–64 65–74 75+

63.7%

31.4%

14.7%

50.1%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1977 1987 1997–98 2007 2014

Ages21–25PrivatelyReneng Ages31–35PrivatelyReneng

Ages21–25WithMortgage Ages31–35WithMortgage

Theproportionofthoseaged25-34thatrentfromprivatelandlordsrosebyaround50%between2008-09and2014-15.

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8

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Theprivaterentedsector isnowskewedheavilytowardthoseagedunder45.Thesocialrentedsectorseesamuchmoreevenlydistributedageprofilewith a substantial presence of older people, reflecting how much moreaccessiblesocialhousingwasforpreviousgenerations.

Figure6.England:DistributionofPrivateRentersandSocialRenters,byAge,2014/15(%)

Source:EnglishHousingSurvey,DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment

Manyrenterswilleventuallygetontheproperty ladder,albeitatanolderage than previous generations. However, many more than in previousgenerations look likely to be renting for life. They have been dubbed“GenerationRent,”bythemedia.

Across all regions, a high proportion of non-home-owners worry aboutneverbeingabletobuyahome,accordingtoa2015surveybyHalifaxbank.

Figure7.UK:ProportionofNon-OwnersthatWorrytheyWillNeverbeAbletoBuyaHome,2015(%)

Source:Halifax

82%80%

78% 78% 78% 78%76% 76%

75%73%

71%

Theprivaterentedsectorisnowskewedheavilytowardthoseagedunder45.

4.2

13.0

14.8

34.6

17.3

22.4

20.3

14.5

14.7

6.9

13.1

4.8

15.7

3.7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

SocialRenters

PrivateRenters

16–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65–74 75+

Page 9: Renting and Retail in the UK November 22 2016...Nov 22, 2016  · Retail in the UK: Shifting Property Market Set to Impact on How Shoppers Spend DEBORAH WEINSWIG ... , while small-ticket

9

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

2.THEIMPACTONCONSUMERSPENDINGWhetherornot renterseventuallygeton thehousing ladder, theshifts inthepropertymarkethavecreateda largerbodyoftenants,aspeoplerentfor longer periods. In this second section of the report, we look at theimpactthis ishaving,andwillhaveintheyearsahead,ontheretailsectorand on consumer spending patterns more broadly. We identify thefollowingthemesthatwilldrivechangesinspendingpatterns:

• Tenantsdonotinvestintheirhomes:Home-improvementstoreswillneed to skew their offerings toward professional tradesmen, whilesmall-tickethomewaresand low-cost furnitureare likelytoappealtorenters.

• Tenantshave less space thanowners:Weexpectthis toboostthemarket for small furniture and space-saving solutions, as well asunderpin growth for spending on services—as renters look to“escapefromhome.”

• Renting makes it difficult to start a family: The average age ofmothersisbeingpushedup,andthiswillimpactontheshapeofthematernityandbaby-productmarketsandlikelysuppressdemandfortraditional big, family shopping trips among those in their 20s and30s.

RentersDoNotInvestinTheirHomesThereislittleornoincentiveforrenterstospendonhomeimprovements,and their tenanciesmay even explicitly forbid this. As a result,we expectthe growth in renting to fuel a gradual shift from do-it-yourself (DIY) toprofessional tradespeople undertaking home improvements on behalf oflandlords.

AccordingtoMBNAdata,overthepast20years,theUKhasalreadyseenamajordecline inDIYspendamongconsumersagedunder30, likelydrivenbythechanginghousingmarket.

Figure8.UK:TotalReal-TermsChangeinAnnualDIYSpend,1996-2016(%)

Source:MBNA

42%

(32)%TotalDIYspend Under30s'DIYSpend

Theshiftsinthepropertymarkethavecreatedalargerbodyoftenants,aspeoplearerentingforlongerperiods.

WeexpectagradualshiftfromDIYtoprofessionaltradespeopleundertakinghomeimprovements.

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10

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Elsewhere in big-ticket home-improvement, we see the renting trendpotentially impacting on the furnituremarket. For thosewho are rentingunfurnished properties, or who need to buy additional furniture in afurnishedproperty,thereislikelytobelittlereasontoinvestinqualityandlongevity: theymay need to disassemble or even dispose of the item thenexttimetheymove.

DatafromtheONS’sFamilySpendingdatasetshowhowmuchlessrenterstypicallyspendonhouseholdgoodsandservices—whichincludesfurniture,DIYtoolsandhouseholdmaintenance.

Figure9.UK:AverageWeeklyPer-CapitaSpendonHouseholdGoodsandServices,byTenure,2014(GBP)

Source:ONS

Implications

Trade-FocusedDIYStoresSettoGainShareDIY stores that cater to professional customers look set to outpace themarket, as landlords turn to tradespeople to maintain and repair theirproperties.

We already appear to be seeing this shift underlying the store expansionand strongcomparablegrowthbeing seenat chains suchasScrewfix; thisKingfisher-owned,trade-positionedretailerpostedcompsof14.7%in1H16,well ahead of Kingfisher’s consumer-focused chain, B&Q, which reportedcompsof6.7%.

Below, we show the expansion among two major business-to-business(B2B) banners, Screwfix and Toolstation, and the portfolio contractionamongtheleadingconsumer-focusedDIYchains,B&QandHomebase.

35.40

44.20

22.10

16.20

All Owners PrivateRented SocialRented

DIYstoresthatcatertoprofessionalcustomerslooksettooutpacethemarket,aslandlordsturntotradespeopletomaintainandrepairtheirproperties.

Page 11: Renting and Retail in the UK November 22 2016...Nov 22, 2016  · Retail in the UK: Shifting Property Market Set to Impact on How Shoppers Spend DEBORAH WEINSWIG ... , while small-ticket

11

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Figure10.SelectedDIY/HomeImprovementChains’StoreNumbers

2013 2014 2015

Change2013-15

Trade/B2B:

Screwfix 335 395 457 122

Toolstation 147 184 224 77

TotalScrewfixandToolstation 482 579 681 199

Consumer:

B&QUK&Ireland 360 360 330 (30)

Homebase 323 296 265 (58)

TotalB&QandHomebase 683 656 595 (88)

Closestfiscalyearstocalendaryearsused.Source:Companyreports/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Germany, which sees a relatively high share of the population rent theirhomes,possiblyofferssomeindicationofthedirectionthattheUKhome-improvement sectorwillmove in:manyof thebigGermanDIY chainsaretargeted as much toward professional tradespeople as they are towardDIYers. Despite the established competition, Kingfisher has been openingScrewfix stores in Germany since 2014, indicating the strength of tradedemandinthatcountry.

Source:Shutterstock

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12

NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Smaller-TicketHomewaresandLower-ValueFurnitureLikelytoOutperformWhile DIY may be hit, we see opportunities for smaller-ticket homefurnishings categories to capture spending by renters. People who renthomesmaynotinvestlargesumsintheirhomes,buttheywillstilllikelybuycategoriessuchashomewaresandsmalldecorativeitems.Itemsfromthesekinds of categories can be taken easily from house to house, arecomplementarytofurnishingsthatmaybeprovidedbylandlordsandtendto carrya lower ticketprice,whichmeans there is less investmentby theconsumer.

Already, theUKhas seen a strongperformance in homewares categories:Britsspent£12.5billionontheseproductsin2015,up9.4%yearoveryear.Thestrengthof thesecategoriescannotbepinnedsolely to thegrowth inrenting;thebuoyancyoftheoverallresidentialpropertymarket isamajorfactor.However,weexpectthecategorytobesupportedbyhousingtrendsintheyearsahead.

Figure11.UK:ConsumerSpendingonHomewares:YoY%Change

Homewaresdefinedasthesumofhouseholdtextilesandglassware,tablewareandhouseholdutensils.Source:ONS/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

We are less bullish on the prospects for bigger-ticket home furnishings.Renters who need to furnish their homes are likely to find lower-costfurniture more appealing than higher-value, longer-lasting investmentpieces. Renters may need to move homes more often, may face someuncertainty over when they will need to move or may find themselvesmoving between furnished and unfurnished properties. As a result, theymay find that flat-pack furniture or furniture that is cheap enough todisposeofwhenmovingoffersthemtheflexibilitytheyneed.

Moreover, in furnished rental properties,many landlordswill look to buycheaperfurniture,insteadofseekingoutqualityfurnitureasaninvestment.In an owner-occupied home, the person who buys the furniture benefitsfromtheenjoymentofaqualityproduct; ina furnishedrentedhome, thebenefittothepersonwhobuysthefurnitureisinminimizingcost.

4.7%

10.0%

3.5%

9.4%

2012 2013 2014 2015

Renterswhoneedtofurnishtheirhomesarelikelytofindlower-costfurnituremoreappealing.

Rentersmaynotinvestlargesumsintheirhomes,buttheywillstilllikelybuycategoriessuchashomewaresandsmalldecorativeitems.

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NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

TenantsHaveLessSpaceBritishhomesarealreadysmallbyinternationalstandards.And,onaverage,tenantshaveevenlessspacethanhomeowners.

In2015,thetypicalrenterenjoyedtheuseof1.5roomsathomecomparedto 2.2 rooms for the average homeowner, with the difference possiblyexplained by flat-sharing among renters. Moreover, while homeownershave benefitted from an upward trend in the number of rooms in recentyears,tenantshaveseentheiraveragespaceremainflat.

Figure12.UK:AverageNumberofRoomsperPerson,byTenure

Source:Eurostat

Implications

SmallerFurnitureSalesareGrowingUK retailers are seeing a “growing appetite for multi-purpose storage,compact furniture and practical features,” according to department-storechain JohnLewis in itsannualHowWeShop,Live&Look report for2016.The retailer noted that Britain’s homes are the smallest in Europe. DatafromShrinkThatFootprint.comshowtheaverageUKnew-buildhome is76squaremeters,versus109squaremetersinGermany,112squaremetersinFranceand201squaremetersintheUS.

JohnLewisalsonotedan increase in “QuietMark”-certifiedappliances,asopen-plan livingmeans the barriers between the kitchen and living roomarebrokendown.Thismaybemorerelevantfortenants,assomelandlordsconvertthetraditional livingroomintoanadditionalbedroom,leavingthekitchenasthemainsharedspacefortenants.

Atthesametime,aswenotedearlier,manyrenterswillbeunwillingtopayhigher prices: given the more transient nature of renting, they will belookingforlow-costoptionsincategoriessuchasfurnitureandappliances.

1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.02.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2

1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Owner TenantTheaverageBritishtenantenjoystheuseoffewerroomsathomethantheaveragehomeowner.

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NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

LeisureServicesWellPositionedtoBenefitSqueezed into smaller spaces, and often sharingwith flatmates,we thinkrenters aremore likely than homeowners to seek experiences outside ofthehome—theyaremorelikelytowantto“escapefromhome.”So,weseeleisure services, such as dining out, travel, cultural events andentertainment,standingtobenefitfromtherentingrevolution.

Between2012and2014,theaverageconsumeragedunder30grewhisorher spendon leisure servicesbynearly 17%,we calculate from theONS’sFamilySpendingdataset.Whilethiscannotbeattributeddirectlytorenting,wethinktheshiftinthewayyoungerconsumerslivemayhaveplayedsomepart.

Figure13.UK:PerCapitaConsumerSpendingonLeisureServices,byAgeGroup:%Change,2012-14

Leisureservicesdefinedasrecreationalandculturalservicesandrestaurantsandhotels.Source:ONS/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

RentingMakesitDifficulttoStartaFamilyRentingcanevenimpactonbirthrates.Forsomepeople,theinsecurityoflivinginarentedhomemeansputtingoffhavingchildren:manyprospectiveparentswillprefertobedomesticallysettledbeforetheystartafamily.

Aswechartbelow,thereisaclearmedium-termtrendforyoungerwomentohavefewerchildrenandrelativelyolderwomentohavemore. Intermsof the annual numberof births, recent years have seenwomenaged40+overtakethoseagedunder20,andwomenaged35-39overtakethoseaged20-24.

According to the EU’s data body Eurostat, the average age atwhich aUKwoman gives birth rose from 28.5 years in 2000 to 30.2 years in 2014(latest).

Ourdatadonotdirectlylinkthistogreaterrenting,butweexpectittobeonefactorinthistrend.

16.9%

1.5%2.7%

9.7%

7.4%

Under30 30-49 50-64 65-74 75+

Between2012and2014,theaverageconsumeragedunder30grewhisorherspendonleisureservicesbynearly17%.

Forsomepeople,theinsecurityoflivinginarentedhomemeansputtingoffhavingchildren.

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NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Figure14.UK:AnnualNumberofBirthsbyAgeofMother(Thou.)

Source:Eurostat

Implications

ImpactingonBabyCategoriesMarketAny shift to lifetime renting, rather than eventually buying a home, coulddent the UK’s total birth rate. In turn, this would put a damper on thegrowthofthebabyandmaternityproductsmarket.

Whether or not total birth rateswill decline, the renting culture certainlylooks likely to continue pushing up the average age of motherhood. Forcompaniessellingbabyormaternityproducts,thismeanstargetingslightlyolderparentsthaninthepast.Andthissuggeststhatbrighterprospectslieahead for those retailers with baby, kids or maternity ranges that targetparents intheir30s,suchasNext,thanforthosethattargetconsumers intheir20s,suchasH&M.

SmallerHouseholdsMeansSmallerBasketsAmongYoungerShoppersLaterparenthoodmeanshouseholdsheadedupbypeopleintheir20sand30saremorelikelythaninthepasttobesmallerhouseholds. Inturn,thissuggeststheseconsumersaremorelikelytobesmall-basketshopperswithlessdemandforbigstoresdesignedforlargefamilies.

These demographic trends look set to underpin existing fast-growingsegments such as convenience stores and small supermarkets. They willcompound problems for large superstores,which rely on pulling in familylife-stageshoppers,andretainingtheirloyaltyoncechildrenleavehome.Atthesametime,thegenerallymorelimitedspacethattenantshaveathome,which we noted above, provides further support for this small-basketshoppingtrend.

In short, deferred parenthoodmeans renterswill retain the convenience-driven,impulse-heavyshoppinghabitsofyoungerpeopleforlonger.

23.9

108.1

198.2217.8

120.6

29.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Under20

20–24

25–29

30–34

35–39

40+

Therentingculturecertainlylookslikelytocontinuepushinguptheaverageageofmotherhood.

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NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

KEYTAKEAWAYSWethinkonetrendunifiesthethreethemesthatwehavediscussedinthisreport: renting means more consumers are deferring responsibility andretainingtheshoppingandspendinghabitsofyoungpeopleforlonger.

• Renters are passing the responsibility of home-maintenance, andoftenbig-ticketpurchases,totheirlandlords.

• Tenants look likely tospendonservicesasameansofenjoying lifeoutsideofthehome.

• Renters are likely to defer starting a family, with the associatedimpactonshoppingbehaviors.

Source:Shutterstock

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NOVEMBER22,2016

DEBORAHWEINSWIG,MANAGINGDIRECTOR,FUNGGLOBALRETAIL&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2016TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.comJohnMercerSeniorAnalyst

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