04 30 2015 global beauty report - deborah weinswig · 2015. 5. 1. · deborah weinswig executive...

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DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre [email protected] New York: 646.839.7017 04 30 2015 GLOBAL BEAUTY REPORT A $400 billion market. Big differences in per-capita spend reflect different stages of development. An extra $300 billion up for grabs by pulling up per-capita spending. A market focused around big global brands at the product level. Retail is more fragmented and complex, with opportunities for development and, in some markets, consolidation.

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Page 1: 04 30 2015 GLOBAL BEAUTY REPORT - Deborah Weinswig · 2015. 5. 1. · DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre

 

     

D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r – H e a d o f G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y F u n g B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e C e n t r e d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m N e w Y o r k : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7

04 • 30 • 2015

GLOBAL BEAUTY REPORT

• A $400 billion market.

• Big differences in per-capita spend reflect different stages of development.

• An extra $300 billion up for grabs by pulling up per-capita spending.

• A market focused around big global brands at the product level.

• Retail is more fragmented and complex, with opportunities for development and, in some markets, consolidation.

Page 2: 04 30 2015 GLOBAL BEAUTY REPORT - Deborah Weinswig · 2015. 5. 1. · DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director – Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre

 

  2 2 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) publication: Global Beauty Report

Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group, All rights reserved.

April 30, 2015

 

Executive Summary

Globally,  shoppers  upped  their  spending  on  beauty  products  by  3.6%  in  2014,  with  the  increase  driven  primarily  by  the  Asia-­‐Pacific,  Latin  America,  and  Middle  East  &  Africa  regions.  This  brought  global  beauty  sales   to  within  a  whisker  of  $400  billion,  a   threshold   that  will   almost   certainly  be  broken   this  year.  But  growth  this  year  will  be  clouded  by  recession   in  Russia,   the  ongoing  possibility  of  a  “Grexit”   (Greek  exit  from   the   euro),   which   could   destabilize   Europe,   and   lower   economic   growth   in   China.   The   counter   to  these  is  strengthening  economic  growth  in  the  US.  

FBIC  has  identified  three  stages  of  maturity  in  regional  beauty  markets.  Mature  markets  (North  America  and   Western   Europe)   see   high   per-­‐capita   spending;   developing   markets   (Latin   America   and   Eastern  Europe)   are  marked   by   lower   per-­‐capita   spending;   and   nascent  markets   (the  Middle   East  &  Africa   and  Asia-­‐Pacific   regions,   with   some   exceptions,   such   as   Japan   and   South   Korea)   see   very   low   per-­‐capita  spending,  and  so  have  great  development  potential.  Mature  markets  are  typically  turning  in  lower  growth  than  developing  and  nascent  markets   are,   although   the  picture   in  developing  Eastern  Europe  has  been  complicated  by  recession  in  some  countries.  

The   global   market   is   likely   set   for   massive   growth   over   the   medium   to   long   term.   If   each   of   the  developing  and  nascent  regions  can  be  pulled  up  by  one  notch  (i.e.,  to  the  per-­‐capita  spending  level  of  the  next  region  up  from  it),  then  more  than  $300  billion  in  extra  sales  could  be  gained  annually.  

Global   brands  dominate   the  market.   In  most   regions,   the   top  10  brand  owners  account   for  more   than  half  of  all   spending  on  beauty  and  personal   care   (BPC)  products.   Yet  at   retail   level,   the  picture   is  more  fragmented,  with  spending  splintering  to  different  sectors  and,  in  some  regions,  relatively  small  players.  

In   less  mature   regional  markets,  we   expect   to   see   consolidation   in   the   specialist   retail   sector   as   big  chains  come  to  dominate,  and  we  foresee  channel  switching  among  shoppers  as  sectors  such  as  grocery  modernize  and  shift   to   larger   formats   that   incorporate  more  beauty   lines.   In  more  mature  markets,  we  anticipate   Internet   retailing,   including   online   pure   plays   and   beauty   subscription   services,   to   further  destabilize  established  consumption  patterns.  We  also  expect  discount  and  off-­‐price  offerings  to  continue  to  shake  up  established  routines  and  disrupt  channels.  

FBIC  thinks  that  retailers  must  focus  on  the  shopping  experience  to  retain  and  build  share.  More  than  price  or  efficacy,  the  beauty  category  is  fundamentally  about  experience.  Those  retailers  that  can  deliver  the  best  experience  to  their  customers  stand  the  strongest  chance  of  winning.  

2014 GLOBAL SPENDING ON

BEAUTY

+3.6%

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  3 3 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) publication: Global Beauty Report

Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group, All rights reserved.

April 30, 2015

 

Global Overview The  Market—Set  for  $400  Billion  in  Sales  

The  global  beauty  products  market   is  on  the  cusp  of  reaching  $400  billion   in  annual  sales,  we  estimate.  That’s  after  3.6%  global  growth  in  2014,  which  was  driven  by  the  Asia-­‐Pacific,  Middle  East  &  Africa,  and  Latin  America  regions.  

Relatively  modest  global  growth  of  3.5%  in  2015  would  take  the  market  to  $413  billion  this  year,  though  there  are  some  important  factors  to  consider  with  regard  to  this  forecast:  

• Drags  this  year  will  include  recession  in  Russia  and  slowing  economic  growth  in  China.  

• It’s  also  still  possible  that  a  Grexit  will  hit  European  consumer  spending  later  in  2015.  

• More  positively,  the  US  is  set  for  stronger  economic  output  and  retail  growth  this  year.  

Figure  1.  Estimated  Global  Beauty  Products  Market  Size:  2005–2014  

 Market  size  at  retail  selling  prices.  Consists  of  skincare,  haircare,  makeup,  fragrances  and  hygiene  products.  Excludes  soaps,  oral  hygiene,  razors  and  blades.  

Source:  L’Oréal/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  analysis  and  estimates    

By  absolute  size,  the  Asia-­‐Pacific  region  is  comfortably  the  biggest  market  by  virtue  of  its  large  population.    

According  to  L’Oréal,  “new  markets,”  which  include  most  Asia-­‐Pacific  countries,  the  Middle  East  &  Africa,  Latin  America,  and  Eastern  Europe,  contributed  fully  80%  of  total  growth  in  the  global  beauty  market   in  2014.  That’s  a  surge  of  $11  billion  in  retail  sales  in  one  year  from  these  regions.    

However,  we  suspect  that  Eastern  Europe  was  dragged  down  by  the  Russian  crisis  in  2014,  and  that  it  will  be  again  in  2015,  given  the  onset  of  the  Russian  recession.  

266  282  

323  

356  341   339  

371  359  

385  399  

200    

250    

300    

350    

400    

450    

2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

$  Billion

s  

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  4 4 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) publication: Global Beauty Report

Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group, All rights reserved.

April 30, 2015  

Figure  2.  Global  Beauty  Products  Market,  by  Region:  2014  

Region   Spending   Share  of  the  Global  Market     $  Billions   %  Asia-­‐Pacific   138.5   34.7  

Western  Europe   87.0   21.8  

North  America   83.4   20.9  

Latin  America   49.9   12.5  

Eastern  Europe   29.1   7.3  

Middle  East  &  Africa   11.2   2.8  

Global  Total   399.1   100.0  

Source:  L’Oréal/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  analysis  and  estimates  

Spending  per  capita  is  the  real  indicator  of  market  development.  Based  on  this  metric,  FBIC  has  identified  three  segments  for  regional  beauty  markets:  

• Mature  markets  are  dominated  by  North  America  and  Western  Europe,  where  average  beauty  spend  is  already  high.  

• Developing  markets   are   regions   that  have   already   grown   substantially   and  are   “halfway   there”  on  average  beauty  spend.  

• Nascent  markets  include  Africa  and  much  of  the  Asia-­‐Pacific  region.  

The   regions   charted   below   include   some   notable   exceptions:   Japan   and   South   Korea,   for   instance,   can  hardly  be  called  nascent  markets  for  beauty  products,  and  few  would  be  optimistic  about  the  short-­‐term  prospects  for  recession-­‐hit  Russia  in  the  developing  segment.  

Figure  3.  Per-­‐Capita  Beauty  Product  Spend,  by  Region:  2014  

     

8  

34  

81  

89  

177  

235  

55  

0   50   100   150   200   250  

Middle  East  &  Africa  

Asia-­‐Pacific  

Lain  America  

Eastern  Europe  

Western  Europe  

North  America  

World  

$  

Mature:  

Emerging:  

Developing:  

Source:  L’Oréal/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  analysis  

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  5 5 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) publication: Global Beauty Report

Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group, All rights reserved.

April 30, 2015

Mature  markets  are   typically   turning   in   the   lowest  growth  of   the   three  segments,  although   the  Eastern  European  picture  has  been  complicated  by  extended  recessions  in  Hungary  and  the  Czech  Republic  as  well  as  by  the  inclusion  of  Russia  (which  has  lately  entered  recession).    

Figure  4.  YoY  Growth  in  Beauty  Market  Size,  by  Region:  2013  

 

 

 

A  $300  Billion  Opportunity  

There’s  much  more  to  be  gained  in  the  global  beauty  market,  and  huge  value  in  pulling  up  average  spend  levels  in  the  trailing  markets.  

• Bringing  the  Asia-­‐Pacific  per-­‐capita  spend  up  to  the  level  of  Latin  America  and  simultaneously  pulling  the  typical  Middle  East  &  Africa  spend  up  to  the  current  level  in  the  Asia-­‐Pacific  region  would  add  an  extra  $223  billion  to  the  global  beauty  market  size.  

• And  growing  per-­‐capita  spend  in  Eastern  Europe  and  Latin  America  to  the  level  of  Western  Europe  would  add  a  further  $88  billion  to  the  global  market.  

This   certainly  won’t   happen  overnight,   but   there’s   little   doubt   that  we’ll   eventually   see   growth  on   this  scale.  Notably,  L’Oréal  forecasts  a  50%  increase  in  the  global  population  with  access  to  cosmetics  over  the  next  20  years.  

Global  Brands  but  Local  Retailing  

The   global   BPC  market   is  made   up   of   contrasting   halves:   typically,  we   see   big,   global   brands   supply   to  more   fragmented,   country-­‐specific   retailers.   The  biggest  brand  owners,   such  as  P&G,   L’Oréal   and  Estée  Lauder,  dominate  at  product  level.    

In  most  regions,  the  top  10  BPC  brand  owners  account  for  more  than  half  of  total  BPC  sales.  

 

 

     

6.5  

4.5  

11.0  

2.3  

0.3  

2.6  

3.6  

0.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   8.0   10.0   12.0  

Middle  East  &  Africa  

Asia-­‐Pacific  

Lain  America  

Eastern  Europe  

Western  Europe  

North  America  

World  

%  

Mature:  

Nascent:  

Developing:  

2013  data  are  latest  available.  Source:  L’Oréal  

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  6 6 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) publication: Global Beauty Report

Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group, All rights reserved.

April 30, 2015

Figure  5.  Top  10  BPC  Companies’  Share  of  Market,  by  Region:  2014  

   

 

However,  at  retail  level,  there’s  a  much  more  complex  picture  than  the  big  brand  owners’  dominance  may  suggest.  BPC  sales  fragment  to  different  types  of  retailers:  nonspecialists  such  as  grocers  are  strong  in  this  market.  And  these  channel  shares  splinter  to  numerous  individual  retail  groups,  which,  in  some  countries,  include  a  large  body  of  independent  traders  and  traditional  formats.    

Typically,  grocery   retailers  and  BPC  specialist   retailers  vie   for  dominance,  but   the  picture   is  diverse.  We  illustrate   this   below   by   picking   out   three   significant   channels   for   each   region:   grocery   retailers,   BPC  specialists  and  Internet  pure  plays.    

Figure  6.  Selected  Distribution  Channels’  Share  of  BPC  Sales,  and  Leading  BPC  Retail  Channel,  by  Region:  2014  

 *Includes  Australasia  and  the  Middle  East  &  Africa  as  well  as  regions  charted  above.  Source:  Euromonitor/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  analysis    

 

43.9  

56.5  

57.2  

60.5  

61.6  

47.3  

0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70  

Asia-­‐Pacific  

Eastern  Europe  

Western  Europe  

North  America  

Lain  America  

World  Total*  

%  

0   20   40   60   80   100  

Asia-­‐Pacific  

Eastern  Europe  

Western  Europe  

North  America  

Lain  America  

World*  

%  

Grocery  Retailers   BPC  Specialists   Internet  Pure  Plays  

Grocery  

Grocery  

BPC  Specialists  

Leading  BPC  Retail  Channel:  

Grocery  

BPC  Specialists  

BPC  Specialists  

*Includes  Australasia  and  the  Middle  East  &  Africa  as  well  as  regions  charted  above.  Source:  Euromonitor/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  analysis  

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  7 7 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) publication: Global Beauty Report

Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group, All rights reserved.

April 30, 2015

 

The   type   of   retailer   that   dominates   within   each   channel   varies   by   market,   from   independent,  neighborhood  specialist  stores  to  big  names  such  as  Walmart,  Walgreens  and  Amazon.  This  means  there’s  greater  scope  for  development  and  concentration  in  the  distribution  networks  than  there  is  at  the  brand-­‐dominated  product  level.  

World’s  Biggest  Specialist  Retailers  The  world’s  top  specialist  retailers  include  big,  hybrid  BPC-­‐pharmacy  retailers  such  as  CVS  Caremark,  Rite  Aid   and   Alliance   Boots.   These   retailers   generate   substantial   revenue   from   healthcare,   but   they’re   also  major  channels  for  big-­‐name  BPC  lines.  

Hinting  at  the  opportunities  for  global  consolidation  in  a  sector  that  remains  largely  divided  along  national  lines,  Walgreens  and  Alliance  Boots  completed  their  merger  at  the  end  of  2014.  The  new  Walgreens  Boots  Alliance  will  see  annual  revenues  of  around  $116  billion,  more  than  double  those  of  its  nearest  specialist  competitor.  

Hutchison  Whampoa   is   the   biggest   specialist   that   focuses   on   beauty   over   health.   It   operates   under   a  collection  of  drugstore  and  beauty   fascias   such  as   Superdrug,   The  Perfume  Shop,  Kruidvat,   Trekpleister  and  Watsons.    

Other  big-­‐name  global  beauty  specialists   include  Sephora   (owned  by  LVMH),  estimated  by  FBIC   to  have  had   sales   of   a   little   over   $5   billion   in   2014,   and   The   Body   Shop   (owned   by   L’Oréal),   which   turned   in  revenues  of  $1.2  billion  in  2014.  

 

Figure  7.  Retail  Sales  by  Top  Health  and  Beauty  Specialists:  2014  and  2013  

   

14.4  

25.5  

36.6  

65.6  

72.2  

15.6  

26.5  

39.5  

67.8  

76.4  

0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   80  

Hutchison  Whampoa**  

Rite  Aid  

Alliance  Boots*  

CVS  Caremark  

Walgreens  

$  Billions  

2014   2013  

*2014  data  are  estimated.  

**2014  data  are  estimated.  Excludes  the  perfumery  chain  Marionnaud,  which  Hutchison  Whampoa  moved  into  a  separate  division  pending  possible  divestiture.  

Source:  Company  reports/FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  analysis  and  estimates  

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  8 8 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) publication: Global Beauty Report

Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group, All rights reserved.

April 30, 2015

 

Corralling the New Consumer in Nascent and Emerging Markets The  BPC  Pyramid  

Fast-­‐growing   nascent   and   developing  markets  such  as  Latin  America  and  the  Asia-­‐Pacific   region  are  typically  characterized  by  fragmented   retail   channels   that   complicate  the  link  between  big  global  brands  and  fast-­‐growing  consumer  spending.    

The   market   takes   a   pyramid   shape:   big  brands   are   still   strong   while   the   flabby  middle   segment—retail—is   pinched   as  consolidation  progresses  and  a  profusion  of  independents   are   replaced   by   large-­‐scale  modern  chains.  

This  means  there’s  opportunity  for  retailers  to  drive  concentration  and  win  share.  In  the  

meantime,  brands  will  work  harder  to  reach  consumers.  

Brands  Innovating  to  Reach  the  New  Customer  

In  markets  with  less  developed  retail  sectors,  the  beauty  brands  are  leading  the  charge.  Companies  such  as  Unilever  and  L’Oréal  are  putting  in  the  legwork  to  reach  consumers  by:  

• Adapting   product.   Smaller   pack   sizes   are   one   way   in   which   fast-­‐moving-­‐consumer-­‐goods  behemoths,  including  Unilever,  are  making  their  products  affordable  in  developing  markets  such  as  India,  Indonesia  and  the  Philippines.  Meanwhile,  L’Oréal  is  among  those  making  acquisitions  to  cater  to  local  tastes.  In  2014,  the  company  purchased  the  Magic  facial  masks  brand  in  China,  where  it  says  masks  are  an  essential  beauty  category.  

• Changing   marketing.   Direct   sales   is   a  channel   that   Unilever   is   leveraging   to  target   consumers   in   hard-­‐to-­‐reach  rural   India   and   that   Coty   (via   Avon)   is  using   to   capture   Brazilian   shoppers.  Both  are  markets  where  the  specialist,  multibrand  BPC  chains  seen  in  Western  markets  are  scarce.  

• Offering  different  online  propositions.  Mobile   connectivity   is   often   the  principal   means   of   accessing   the   web  in   less  developed  economies,  so  we’re  seeing   brand   activity   such   as   Estée  Lauder’s   launch   of   around   50  regionalized,   mobile-­‐optimized  websites  in  2014.  

Retail  Consolidation  Results  in  National  Chains  

Consolidation  of  the  retail  sector   is   inevitable   in  nascent  and  developing  markets.  This  will  be  driven  by  international  retail  chains  as  well  as  by  big  domestic  retailers.    

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We’re  already  seeing  Western  retailers  push  into  growing  markets:  

• The  Body  Shop  took  a  majority  stake  in  Brazil’s  Emporio  Body  Store  at  the  end  of  2013  and  has  since  been  expanding  quickly  in  the  country.  

• Yves  Rocher  opened  its  first  Brazilian  store  in  late  2013  and  has  also  been  expanding  in  the  country  since  then.  

• Alliance  Boots  entered  Mexico  and  Chile   through   its   acquisition  of   the   Farmacias  Ahumada   chain,  and  it  acquired  a  wholesaler  in  China  to  bolster  its  presence  there.  

• In   2014,   Sephora   opened   a   flagship   store   in   Dubai,   entered   the   Indonesian  market   and   reported  “remarkable  performances”  in  the  Middle  East  and  Asia.  This  came  after  Sephora  raised  its  stake  in  the  Ile  de  Beauté  chain  in  Russia  in  2013  and  acquired  Internet  pure  play  Sack’s  to  expand  in  Brazil  back  in  2010.  

We  expect  to  see  more  acquisitions  and  market  entries  from  top  retail  chains  seeking  to  tap  high-­‐growth  markets  such  as  Latin  America  and  the  Asia-­‐Pacific  region.  

Winning  in  Immature  Markets  

Modern  store  formats  and  strong  own-­‐brand   lines  will  be  among  the  principal  weapons   in  the  battle  to  win  share  in  immature  markets.  Small  mom-­‐and-­‐pop  retailers  will  struggle  to  compete  on  these  elements.    

But  we  think  retailers  should  consider  going  further  than  that,  by  leveraging  e-­‐commerce,  technology  and  the  in-­‐store  experience  to  win  customer  loyalty  and  build  market  share.  

• E-­‐commerce:  Big  global   chains  are   in   the  strongest  position   to  establish   first-­‐mover  advantages   in  Internet   retailing  of  beauty  products  and  establish   themselves  as   the  default  choice  online.  This   is  particularly   true   in   Eastern   Europe   and   Latin   America,  where   online   shopping   levels   are   currently  low,  providing  international  players  with  ample  opportunity  to  cultivate  the  channel.  

• Tech:   International   retailers   can   go   further  with  regard   to   improving   the   store   experience   via  tech.  For  example,  they  can  cater  to  smartphone-­‐equipped   shoppers   with   beacons   that   push  customized   offers   and   advice   and   provide  experience-­‐enhancing  tech  such  as  magic  mirrors  that   allow   shoppers   to   virtually   try   on   makeup.  We   think   these   kinds   of   tech   offerings   could   fit  particularly  well  with  the  aspirational,  mall-­‐based  shopping   habits   of   urban   Latin   Americans   and  with  tech-­‐savvy  Asian  consumers.  

• Services:  Retailers  should  consider  bringing  beauty  services  in-­‐store.  In  Brazil,  for  instance,  there  is  huge  demand  for  salon  services,  but  specialist  beauty  stores  are  underrepresented—so   the   popularity   of   one   could   bolster  demand  for  the  other.  And  in  some  markets,   in-­‐store  services  or  demonstrations   could   introduce   less   experienced   shoppers   to  cutting-­‐edge  beauty  products  and  methods.  

• Apps:  In  all  regions,  larger  retailers  should  use  their  scale  to  offer  apps   that   cater   to   the   booming   population   of   smartphone   and  tablet  owners.  M-­‐commerce,  beauty  content  and  smart   features  such   as   skin-­‐tone   detection   and   at-­‐home  magic   mirrors   offer   a  way   to   build   connections   in   a   market   where   brand   experience  and  emotional  connection  are  important.  

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Shoppers “Escaping the Funnel” in Mature Markets The  BPC  Wedge  

Mature   markets   such   as   the   US   and  Western  Europe  have  well-­‐consolidated  beauty   retail   sectors   that   are   focused  around   big   BPC   specialist   chains   and  broad-­‐range   grocery   stores.   So,   the  structure  is  one  of  big  brands  funneling  through   large   retailers   to   a   lower-­‐growth   consumer  market.   The   scale   of  the  retailers  means  they  have  more  heft  against   the   big   brands,   and   they   can  offer   stronger   private   labels   that  compete  with  the  top  names.  The  newly  formed  Walgreens  Boots  Alliance   is  the  latest  example  of  building  scale  in  well-­‐developed  markets.  

But  as  e-­‐commerce  booms  and  alternative  business  models  take  off,  there  is  a  renewed  threat  of  spend  fragmenting  away  from  the  big  chains.  And  this  is  in  the  context  of  lower  growth.  

The   threat   in   mature   markets   is   one   of   changing   consumer   behavior   hitting   established   retailers—of  consumers  “escaping  the  funnel”  of  big  chains.  

Mature  Markets  Seeing  Consumer  Shifts  FBIC  has  identified  the  following  disruptions  to  established  patterns  of  consumption  in  mature  markets:  

• Internet  pure  plays.  Online-­‐only  retailers  range  from  generalists  such  as  Amazon  Luxury  Beauty  to  specialists   such   as   feelunique   to   apparel-­‐focused   pure   plays   such   as   ASOS,   and   they’re   chipping  away  at  the  share  taken  by  store-­‐based  retailers.  

• Subscription   models.   Functional   services   such   as   Amazon’s   Subscribe   &   Save   and   Tesco  Subscriptions   offer   convenience   for   shoppers   making   routine,   habitual   purchases.   Meanwhile,  beauty  boxes  offered  by  Birchbox  and  feelunique  provide  beauty  enthusiasts  with  the  opportunity  to  discover  new  products.  

• Budget  stores  and  off-­‐price   retail.  BPC  products  are  at  the  heart  of  the  fast-­‐growing  dollar  stores,  pound  shops  and  euro  store  chains  that  are  competing  aggressively  on  price  with  grocery  retailers  and  specialists  in  the  category.  We  see  potential  for  more  off-­‐price  beauty  retail,  given  the  off-­‐price  boom  in  apparel  under  fascias  such  as  T.J.Maxx/T.K.Maxx.    

• Grocery   discounters.   No-­‐frills   discounters   such   as  Aldi   and   Lidl   are   quickly   taking   share   from   full-­‐range  grocery  retailers  in  the  UK,  the  US,  Italy  and  Australia.  These  discount  stores  stock  almost  no  branded  lines  in  BPC,  and  choice  is  very  limited.  So,  as  more  shoppers  turn  to  these  stores  for  their  groceries,  we  expect  to  see  an  increase  in  “top-­‐up”  BPC  shopping.  Counterintuitively,  this  may  well  benefit  midmarket  BPC  specialist  chains  that  offer  wide  ranges  and  big-­‐name  brands.  

Any  one  of  these  disruptions  does  not  have  to  be  big  in  and  of   itself;   it’s   the   collective   effect   on   established   shopping  patterns  and  established  retailers  that’s  important.  And  for  beauty  brands,  this  shift  threatens  their  established  routes  to  the  consumer.  It’s  not  just  about  working  with  a  new  set  of   retailers.   As   more   shoppers   try   niche   brands   through  beauty  boxes,  buy  across  borders  from  Internet  pure  plays  and   seek   out   off-­‐price   products   (which   may   have   been  sourced  on  the  gray  market),  the  largest  brand  owners  will  likely  find  their  steady  revenue  streams  disrupted.  

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Winning  in  Mature  Markets  

The   pressure   is   on   established   brands   and  retailers   to   build   deeper   connections   with  shoppers   to   strengthen   perceptions   of   value  and   cultivate   loyalty.   But   they   have   plenty   of  tools  available  to  them:  

• Social   media   offers   the   opportunity   to  engage  with  consumers  more  quickly  and  immediately   than   through   traditional  media.   Instagram   presents   real   potential  for  beauty   retailers  and  brands,   since   it’s  focused  on  visuals  and   its  members  have  a  passion  for  selfies.  Sephora  is  one  store  that’s   leveraged   the   platform  effectively—it   has   2.6   million   Instagram  followers.  

• Online   content   and   tools   can   similarly   engage   shoppers   and   bolster   a   company’s   credibility   as   a  beauty  specialist.  A  number  of  big  chains  already  offer  some  online  content.  For  instance,  Sephora’s  website  features  a  Beauty  Talk  subsite  while  The  Body  Shop  offers  its  Beauty  Hub  for  online  content.  And   glossy   iPad   magazines   and   apps   equipped   with   beauty   tools   offer   new   avenues   for   brand  building  through  digital  devices.  

 

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• Loyalty  programs  cater  well  to  the  habitual,  repeat  purchase  pattern  of  much  beauty  shopping.   In  the  UK,  Boots’  highly  successful  Advantage  Card  program  has  nearly  18  million  members   (out  of  a  total  UK  population  of  just  64  million),  and  the  company  says  that  Advantage  Card  members  make  around  60%  of  its  UK  sales.  Sephora,  Walgreens  and  Debenhams  also  offer  loyalty  programs.  

• Better   store   experiences   offer   real  advantages   to   retailers   seeking   to  counter   the   functionality   of   online  shopping.   In-­‐store   tech   such   as   the  beacons  and  magic  mirrors  discussed  earlier  can  help.  Leading  the  charge,  Sephora   announced   that   it   will   roll  out   beacon   technology   to   its   US  store   network   in   order   to   offer  personalized  messages  to  customers.  But   it’s  about  much  more  than  tech.  On   London’s   Oxford   Street,   natural-­‐beauty   specialist   Lush   recently  opened  a  new   flagship   store  with   treatment   rooms,   sinks   in  which  customers  can  test  products  and  a  perfume  gallery.  And  when  this  analyst  visited  on  its  second  day  of  opening,  the  store  was  heaving  with  shoppers!  

Beauty  shopping  is  fundamentally  about  enjoying  a  great  experience,  one  that  inspires  confidence  in  both  the  product  and  the  person  buying  it.  Great  experiences  are  at  the  root  of  that  feeling  of  self-­‐confidence,  whatever  region  the  customer  is  in.  

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Focusing on Tech Innovation The   in-­‐store  experience   is   about  much  more   than   technology,  but   this   is   an  emerging   field   that   can  be  leveraged   to  offer  new  experiences  and   improved   services   in   stores.  Alternatively,   it   can  be  used  by  e-­‐commerce  pure  plays   to  deliver   convenience  and   restore   some  of   the   tangibility   that’s   lost  with  online  shopping.  

As  we  made   clear   above,  we   think   in-­‐store   tech   is   not   just   about   building   a   competitive   advantage   in  lower-­‐growth  mature  markets;   it’s   about   gaining   first-­‐mover   status   among   smartphone-­‐wielding,   cross-­‐channel   shoppers   in   faster-­‐growing   markets   such   as   Latin   America   and   the   Asia-­‐Pacific   region.   In   the  following  section,  we  round  up  some  of  the  most  promising  and  interesting  innovations.  

Smart  Beauty  Makes  Shoppers  Smart  

Lights!   Camera!  Matching!   Sephora   teamed  up  with  color  specialist  Pantone  to  create  Color  IQ,  a   device   that   captures   color-­‐pitch   intensity.   By  focusing  on  skin  physiology,  Color   IQ  eliminates  several   variables   that   distort   shade   selection.  The   Pantone   Color   Institute   mapped   out   110  skin   tones   to   build   the   Color   IQ   library.  Capturing   skin   tones   and   undertones,   Color   IQ  supports   improved  foundation  matching.  This   is  an   example   of   a   smarter   choice   driven   by  technology,  and  it’s  only  a  matter  of  time  before  this   functionality   is   applied   to   create   colored  cosmetics   that   complement   skin   tones   and  apparel  choices.  

In  a  similar  vein,  Boots  launched  its  No7  Match  Made  service,  which  relies  on  handheld  devices  used  in-­‐store  that  detect  skin  tone  and  suggest  the  best  shades  of  foundation  and  concealer  for  each  shopper.  

A  little  help   from  some  connected  friends:    Visada  is  a  brand-­‐independent  app  that  allows  the  user  to  create  a  unique  beauty  profile  through  an  analysis  by  its  vision  technology  once  she’s  uploaded  a  selfie.  The  app  searches  thousands  of  beauty   vlogs   on   YouTube   to   find   someone  who   looks   like   the   user,   and   then  places  that  vlogger’s  makeup  looks  on  the  user’s  photo,  so  the  user  can  virtually  see   how   the   makeup   would   look   on   her.   The   app   also   offers   personalized  recommendations   on   the   best   products,   formulations   and  makeup   colors   for  the  user.  

Engage   the   shopper   and   capture   data:   In   terms   of   product   presentation,  technology   has   brought   marketing   and   communication   to   a   new   level.  Responsiveness   is   key,   and   gamification   adds   an   element   of   fun.   In   August  2014,  DKNY   launched   a   new   fragrance   in   London’s  Debenhams:  DKNY  MYNY.  Incorporating  a  full  street  of  windows,  the  store  installed  an  interactive  digital  screen  with  motion  detectors  and  an  integrated  camera  that  snapped  photos  as  passersby   stopped   and   played   a   game.   The   campaign   resulted   in   the   brand  reaching  top-­‐seller  status  during  the  marketing  period,  while  also  driving  social  media  attention.  

Augmented  Reality:  Trying  on  Makeup  Before  Buying  Makeup   has   long   been   a   category   that   brings   out   the   adventurous   in   consumers.   Facial   mapping   is  providing   beauty   brands   and   retailers   with   digital   tools   to   better   understand   the   skin   and   to   market  beauty  products  to  consumers.  Magic  mirrors  allow  shoppers  to  experiment  with  different  hairstyles  and  makeup  looks  and  to  digitally  apply  cosmetics  using  state-­‐of-­‐the-­‐art  facial-­‐recognition  technology.  They’re  fun  to  use  and  can  lead  to  multiple  selling  opportunities.  

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Your   phone,   the   beauty   consultant:  Makeup   Genius   from   L’Oréal   Paris  uses   new   visualization   and   facial-­‐mapping   technologies   to   allow  shoppers   to   turn   the   front-­‐facing  camera   of   a   mobile   device   into   a  virtual  mirror,  so  they  can  virtually  try  on   products—including   eyeliner   and  lipstick—in   real   time.   The   algorithm  captures   64   data   points   on   the   face,  and   allows   the   virtual   makeup   to  move   with   the   user   as   she   turns   her  head  or  changes  her  facial  expression.  The  same  technology  was  previously  used  in  the  movie  The  Curious  Case  of  Benjamin  Button  to  help  Brad  Pitt  age  in  reverse,  and  the  movie  won  an  Oscar  for  both  makeup  and  visual  effects.  

Beauty   tech  provides   the  personalized  experience   that  most  women  desire  when  purchasing   cosmetics  and  other  beauty  products—and  that  even  a  beauty  advisor  in  a  store  may  not  always  deliver.  

At-­‐Home  Beauty  Devices  Gaining  Popularity  Beauty  technology  or,  more  specifically,  home  use  devices  are  a  key  area  of  expected  growth.  The  global  market  size  for  beauty  devices  was  $2.3  billion  in  2013.  It’s  expected  to  reach  $4.5  billion  in  2018.  In  terms  of  product  categories,  hair  removal  devices  account  for  one-­‐third  of  total  market  sales,  followed  by  a  tie  between  cleansing  devices  and  antiaging  devices.  

The  US   holds   the   greatest   share   of   the   beauty   device  market,   but   Asia   is   rapidly   catching   up:   in   2013,  China  posted  92.6%  year-­‐over-­‐year  growth  in  the  category.  With  Clinique  set  to  enter  the  market  with  its  Sonic  System  Purifying  Cleansing  Brush,  and  competitors  expected  to  follow  suit,  Europe’s  growth  in  the  at-­‐home   beauty   sector   is   poised   to   outpace   that   of   the   US,   with   a   25%   sales   increase.   In   Europe,   the  market  grew  at  a  steady  14%  in  2014,  with  LED  face  masks,  skin-­‐smoothing  lasers  and  microdermabrasion  products  proving  some  of  the  most  frequent  purchases.    

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Looking Ahead: What We Expect Across  markets,  we’re   anticipating   flux   at   the   retail   level,   given   the   characteristics   of   the   beauty   retail  sector  outlined  above  and  the  rapid  changes  we’re  seeing  in  many  consumers’  shopping  habits.  

In  less  mature  markets,  we  expect:  

• Consolidation  in  the  specialist  sector  as  national  chains  displace  independent,  neighborhood  BPC  stores.  

• Channel  switching  among  shoppers  as  adjacent  sectors,  notably  grocery,  modernize  and  shift  to  larger  formats  that  incorporate  more  beauty  lines.  

In  more  mature  markets,  we  anticipate  that:  

• Internet  retail,  including  online  pure  plays  and  beauty  subscription  services,  will  further  destabilize  established  patterns  of  consumption.  

• Discounter  shopping  and  off-­‐price  retailing  will  further  shake  up  established  routines.  

Our  overarching   recommendation   is   that   retailers   focus  on   the   consumer  experience   in  order   to   retain  and  build  share.  The  beauty  category  is  fundamentally  about  experience,  not  price,  and  usually  not  even  efficacy.  The  most  successful  retailers  are  those  that  can  deliver  the  best  experiences  to  their  customers.  

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  16 16 Fung Business Intelligence Centre (FBIC) publication: Global Beauty Report

Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group, All rights reserved.

April 30, 2015

 

 Deborah  Weinswig,  CPA  Executive  Director—Head  of  Global  Retail  &  Technology  Fung  Business  Intelligence  Centre  New  York:  917.655.6790  Hong  Kong:  +852  6119  1779  [email protected]    Cam  Bolden  [email protected]    Marie  Driscoll,  CFA  [email protected]    John  Harmon,  CFA  [email protected]    Amy  Hedrick  [email protected]    Aragorn  Ho  [email protected]    John  Mercer  [email protected]    Charlie  Poon  [email protected]    Kiril  Popov  [email protected]    Stephanie  Reilly  [email protected]    Lan  Rosengard  [email protected]    Jing  Wang    [email protected]