Renewable Trends and Energy System Transformation

Scott G Haase Director of Partnership Development Scientific Computing and Energy AnalysisState and Local Programs January 2020

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Department of Energy National Laboratory System

Messaging + Blue Infographic

Content

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Bioenergy

Vehicle Technologies

Hydrogen

Sustainable Transportation

Buildings

Advanced Manufacturing

Government Energy Management

Energy Efficiency

Solar

Wind

Water

Geothermal

RenewablePower

Advanced Mobility

Vehicle Technologies

Hydrogen

Sustainable Transportation

Buildings

Advanced Manufacturing

Government Energy Management

Energy Efficiency

High-Performance Computing

Storage

Data and Visualizations

Energy SystemsIntegration

Technology Focus

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Key Takeaways

1. Renewables and efficiency costs continue to decline, deployment grows, technology performance improves enabling new market opportunities:

• electrification of transportation• Power to X (electrons to molecules)

2. Leadership shift to local jurisdictions, including states, utilities, businesses

3. NREL has tools, data and models available to assist jurisdictions with planning, analysis and implementation of clean energy technologies

1. Cost Trends and Deployments

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Wind and Solar Cost Reductions

Source: Lazard 2019

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Renewable Generation Market Share Trends

Renewables and Natural Gas Anticipated Growth GloballyGlobal power capacity by source in the Stated Policies Scenario

The power mix is being re-shaped by the rise of renewables and natural gas. In 2040, renewables account for nearly half of total electricity generation.

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Solar PV

WindHydro

1 000

2 000

3 000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

GW

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Wind Energy Potential Capacity at 80m Hub Height2008 Turbine Technology

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Wind Energy Potential Capacity at 110m Hub Height2014 Turbine Technology

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Wind Energy Potential Capacity at 140m Hub Height‘Near Future’ Turbine Technology (150W/m2)

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Impacts of Electrification

2050 U.S. electricity consumption increases relative to Reference • Medium +932 TWh (20%) • High +1,782 TWh (38%)

1.6%/year CAGR (2016-2050)

1.2%/year

0.6%/year

nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71500.pdf

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Renewable Power-to-H2 → Methanation of CO2

• Low-cost or otherwise curtailed renewable electricity is enabling large-scale energy storage and the decarbonization of the transportation sector

• Natural gas pipeline provides extensive storage– Southern California Gas estimates 1 TWhr storage in their storage fields and pipeline

Solar Energy

Other Low-Carbon

Re-electrification via fuel cells or gas-fired power plants

Water

Renewable CH4

BIOMETHANATION REACTOR

CO2 + 4H2 → CH4 + 2H2O

e-

H2

CO2 (25 – 50%)CH4 (50 – 75%)

Nutrient Supply

NG Storage Network

End Uses: Heat, fuel, chemical feedstock

ElectrolysisO2Biogas Sources

Wastewater Fermentation

LandfillEnergy Crops

Manure

Wind Energy

Anthropogenic sources of CO2

Biogas Supply

H2

2. Leadership at the State and Local Level

State and Local Energy Transitions as a Market Driver

100% Renewable/Carbon-free energy commitments in:155 U.S. towns/cities, 11 counties, 7 states, DC, and Puerto Rico*

Plus dozens of electric utilities including Duke Energy

*As of 01/06/2020 https://www.sierraclub.org/ready-for-100/commitments

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Carbon Pollution Reduction Potential

of City Actions

O’Shaughnessy, E., et al. (2016). Estimating the National Carbon Abatement Potential of City Policies: A Data-Driven Approach. NREL: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/67101.pdf.

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$6 billion/yr budget6500 MW Peak Load4 million residents1.4 M customers

LADWP

Diverse energy backgrounds

Quarterly meetings

Advisory Group

Full range power system modeling

Integrated transmission and

distribution analysis

Integrated Electricity Modeling

Air quality Environmental

Impact

Environmental Analysis

Workforce needsEconomic

developmentSocial equity

Economic Analysis

LA100: The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy

Study

For additional information, search the web for: LADWP 100%

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DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) Solar Energy Evolution and Diffusion Studies 2 - State Energy Strategies (SEEDS2-SES) Project

The Florida Alliance for Advancing Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR)

3. Tools, Data and Models

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Cities-LEAP and SLED (State and Local Energy Data)

Energy Data for Every U.S. City:Developed new methodology,

estimated:• Electricity, natural gas, vehicle fuel consumption,

expenditures• Vehicle miles traveled• Rooftop PV potential• Building stock by area, count, type• Commercial, industrial energy consumption by

industry• Building energy disclosure potential impact• Housing types by income• GHG emissions

Measured data on:• Registered vehicles• Vehicle fuel types• Average fuel economyMa, Ookie, Ricardo Oliveira, Evan Rosenlieb, and Megan Day. 2019. Sector-Specific Methodologies for Subnational Energy Modeling. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-7A40-72748. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/72748.pdf.

23,400+ U.S. Cities

https://apps1.eere.energy.gov/sled/

2016 GHG Emissions St. Petersburg, FL

https://gds.nrel.gov/slope

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Quantifying Resilience with REopt: Days of Survivability of a DOD Base After Extreme Event

Generator Solar PV Storage Lifecycle Cost Outage

1. Base case 2.5 MW - - $20 million 5 days

2. Lowest cost solution 2.5 MW 625 kW 175 kWh $19.5 million 6 days

3. Proposed system 2.5 MW 2 MW 500 kWh $20 million 9 days

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14Prob

abili

ty o

f Sur

vivi

ng O

utag

e [%

]

Length of Outage [Days]

K. Anderson et al., “Increasing Resiliency Through Renewable Energy Microgrids”. SCTE Journal of Energy Management Vol.2 (2) August 2017 pp.22-38. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/69034.pdf

www.nrel.gov

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

www.nrel.gov

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Thank You

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NREL Tools – user-driven and publicly availableTool name Data or

tool Users Question it answers Training available Open

sourceNational Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)

Both Developers, engineers, or planners Researchers

What is the level of solar irradiance at my site? User manuals, support forum, and data download steps online

Yes

State and Local Energy Data (SLED)

Data Developers, engineers, or planners State or local policymakers

What is the sector level breakdown of energy and emission data for my jurisdiction (or sub-jurisdictions)?

Easy-to-use data portal n/a

BEopt Tool Developers, engineers, or planners Home, business, or building owners Researchers

What are cost-optimal efficiency packages for various levels of whole-house energy savings for my building design?

Training videos and publications in support menu on website

No

Community Solar Scenario Tool (CSST)

Tool Developers, engineers, or planners Utilities and regulators State or local policymakers

What are the costs and benefits to various audiences of a single community solar project?

Tool documentation is included as cell comments

No

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models

Tool Developers, engineers, or planners Utilities and regulators State or local policymakers Home, building, or business owners

What are job and other economic development impacts of renewable energy projects in my jurisdiction?

Instructions online and in ‘About Jedi’ tab in the spreadsheet tool

Yes

PVWatts Tool Developers, engineers, or planners Home, business, or building owners

What is the possible performance and annual value of my solar project?

Help button on website provides documentation

Yes

REopt Lite (full REopt on next slide)

Tool Developers, engineers, or planners State or local policymakers Home, business, or building owners Researchers

What combination of solar PV, wind, and energy storage will help my site minimize energy costs or sustain a grid outage? (For PR, supports solar plus storage only for now, not wind)

User manual and demo video online

In process

ResStock Tool Developers, engineers, or planners Utilities and regulators State or local policymakers Home, business, or building owners

What energy efficiency measures are likely to yield the highest savings in my jurisdiction?

Documentation, publications and a webinar available online

Yes

System Advisor Model (SAM)

Tool Developers, engineers, or planners State or local policymakers Researchers

What are the costs, cash flow, and performance predictions for my solar, wind, or geothermal project?

Quick start guide and extensive help menu within software; webinars online

Yes

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NREL Tools – used for in-house analysisTool name Customers Description Link

Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model

State or local policymakers Utilities and regulators Researchers

A geospatially rich market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States through 2050. dGen is used primarily as an exploratory tool to determine how different factors will affect DER deployment

https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/

Flexible Energy Scheduling Tool for Integrating Variable Generation (FESTIV)

Developers, engineers, or planners

State or local policymakers

A multiple-timescale, interconnected simulation tool that includes security-constrained unit commitment, security-constrained economic dispatch, and automatic generation control sub-models. FESTIV simulates the behavior of the electric power system to help researchers understand the impacts of variability and uncertainty on power system operations

https://www.nrel.gov/grid/festiv-model.html

Multi-Area Frequency Response Integration Tool (MAFRIT)

Developers, engineers, or planners

Utilities and regulators Researchers

The only software tool of its kind that integrates primary frequency response (turbine governor control) with secondary frequency response (automatic generation control). MAFRIT simulates the power system dynamic response in full time spectrum with variable time steps from millisecond to days under both normal and event conditions. Places emphasis on electric power systems with high penetrations of renewable generation

https://www.nrel.gov/grid/modeling-tools.html

(ReEDS) State or local policymakers Utilities and regulators Researchers

Capacity planning and dispatch model for the North American Electricity system https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/reeds/index.html

REopt Developers, engineers, or planners

State or local policymakers Utilities and regulators Researchers

A decision support tool used to optimize energy systems for buildings, campuses, communities, and microgrids. Recommends an optimal mix of renewable energy, conventional generation, and energy storage technologies to meet cost savings and energy performance goals

https://reopt.nrel.gov/about/

Hawaii Energy Visualization Initiative (HEVI) tool

State or local policymakers Utilities and regulators

A custom capacity and dispatch modeling system that can quickly provide insights on cross-sectoral questions. This tool is customized in partnership with the user (typically energy office or university) and NREL based on locally available data and information

https://www.energy.gov/eere/energy-modeling-tool

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Select Publications

Valuing Resilience Caitlin Murphy, Eliza Hotchkiss, Kate Anderson 2019Resilience Roadmap: A Collaborative Approach to Multi-Jurisdictional Resilience PlanningEliza Hotchkiss, Alex Dane 2019Best Practices in Resilience PlanningEliza Hotchkiss, Sherry Stout 2019Resilient Energy Platform: Power Sector Resilience Technical SolutionsEliza Hotchkiss, Sadie Cox 2019Distributed Energy Planning for Climate ResilienceSherry Stout, Eliza Hotchkiss, Nathan Lee, Alison Holm, Megan Day 2018Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Emerging Climate Change and Development Topics for Energy Sector TransformationSadie Cox, Eliza Hotchkiss, Dan Bilello, Andrea Watson, Alison Holm, Jennifer Leisch 2017Distributed Energy Generation for Climate ResilienceEliza Hotchkiss, Sherry Stout 2017Resilient Energy Systems: Risks and ChallengesEliza Hotchkiss (presented by Jessica Lau) 2019Distributed Generation to Support Development-Focused Climate Action. EC-LEDS Sadie Cox, Pieter Gagnon, Sherry Stout, Owen Zinaman, Andrea Watson, Eliza Hotchkiss 2016