renewable energyrenewable energy- … m speaker 10...renewable energyrenewable energy-utility...

RENEWABLE ENERGYRENEWABLE ENERGY-UTILITY PERSPECTIVE:

What Looks Promising?Energy in California Law Conference

S b 22 2008September 22, 2008Michael DeAngelis, SMUD

WHAT LOOKS PROMISING?

• Supply Constrained ANY RENEWABLE!• Supply Constrained– ANY RENEWABLE!• Lowest Economic Cost Today• Greatest Cost Reduction Potential• Most Proven- Reliable, Durable, Predictable

L t E i t l C t• Lowest Environmental Cost• Reliable Electricity System Supply• Largest Resource for Future +Transmission

Law Seminars International | Energy in California | 09/22/08 in San Francisco, CA

ECONOMIC COST ($/MWh)

Source: RETI Phase 1A Report, Black & Veatch, 3/08

LOWEST COST


COST REDUCTION: TECH DEVELOPMENT CONTINUUM

RD&D (PV, Sol. Thermal, Ocean)

Market Development:Wind, PV, Biomass,Geothermal, Solar Th.

COST REDUCTION/ MATURE

• Innovation Production Economies Learning• Innovation, Production Economies, Learning Curve, Scale-up

• Developing Technologies: PV, Solar Thermal, Biomass Gasification & Fuels, Ocean

• Most Mature (Reliable & Durable) Technologies: Small Hydro DC Biomass HT Geothermal WindSmall Hydro, DC Biomass, HT Geothermal, Wind

• Resource Expansion: LT Geothermal, LS Wind, Offshore Wind


ENVIRONMENTAL COST

ENVIRONMENTAL - AIR

LOCAL AIR QUALITY

GHG EMISSIONSQ

BIOMASS Major 0/MinorSM. HYDRO 0 0GEOTHERMAL 0/Minor 0/MinorWIND 0 0SOL THERMAL 0/Minor 0/MinorPV – CENTRAL 0 0PV – ROOFS 0 0OCEAN 0 0


ENVIRONMENTAL - LANDLAND/HABITAT SPECIES OTHER

BIOMASS Minor Minor Vis/WasteSM. HYDRO Minor Minor Visual ImGEOTHER Minor Minor Visual ImWIND Minor Major/

MinorVisual Im

SOL THERM Major Minor Visual ImSOL THERM Major Minor Visual ImPV – CENTR Major Minor Visual ImPV – ROOFS 0 0OCEAN ?/Minor Minor Visual Im

ENVIRONMENTAL - WATER

WATER USE WATER EMISSBIOMASS MAJOR/Minor MINORBIOMASS MAJOR/Minor MINORSM. HYDRO 0 0GEOTHER MAJOR/MINOR MINORWIND 0 0SOL THERM MAJOR/MINOR MINORPV – CENTR 0 0PV – ROOFS 0 0OCEAN 0 0


SYSTEM RELIABILITY

• SMUD Peak Load (MW): 3400 (Summer); 1600• SMUD Peak Load (MW): 3400 (Summer); 1600 (Winter)

• Typical MW Summer Load:1200 (am) 3000 (pm) • Baseload: Geothermal, Biomass, LFG• Peaking & Dispatchable: Hydro, Solar Thermal• Intermittent (Variable): Small Hydro, Wind, Solar

& PV

SMUD DAILY SYSTEM LOAD& SOLANO WIND PRODUCTION

1600

1700

1800

70

80

90

h/Da

y)

Correlation = 59.2%

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

SMU

D Lo

ad (M

W)

10

20

30

40

50

60

Win

d Pr

oduc

tion

(MW

9001 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361

Day of the Year

0

Daily Ave 2002-03 Load Daily Wind Production (MWh/Day)


SMUD HOURLY SYSTEM LOAD (Hot Summer Day) & SOLANO WIND PRODUCTION

2500

3000

7.5

9.0

)

Correlation = -39.6%

500

1000

1500

2000

Sys

tem

Loa

d (M

W)

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

Win

d P

rodu

ctio

n (M

W)

01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Hour

0.0

7/22/03 System Load Ave. Jun-Aug 2003 Wind Production

SMUD's RENEWABLE ENERGY MIX 2007

TOTAL BIOMASSTOTAL BIOMASS45%

TOTAL WIND27%

TOTAL GEOTHERMAL22%

TOTAL SMALL HYDRO6%

TOTAL PV< 1%


California WindResources MapSource: CEC PIER

GeothermalPotential

Greater Reno < 650 MWGreater Reno < 650 MWGeysters Area < 550 MWDixie Corridor < 500 MWMedicine Lake < 200 MWSurprise Valley < 40 MW

Source: GeothermEX StudyFunded by CEC PIER


BIOMASSRESOURCES IN WESTERN STATESSource: NRELSource: NREL Technical Report NREL/TP-560-39181

SMALL HYDROPOTENTIAL IN WESTERN STATES

S U S DOE Id h N ti lSource: U.S. DOE Idaho NationalLaboratory (INL) mapped by Black & Veatch in RETI 1A DraftReport, 3/08


Note: CEC Study Estimates 17,000 GW Solar PV Potential in Calif.


LARGEST RESOURCE• RETI Assessments: AZ, Baja, BC, CA, NV, OR,

WA.• Biomass: 68,000 GWh• Small Hydro: 2,600 GWh• Wind: 240,000 GWh• Geothermal: 35,300 GWh• Solar PV: 41,000,000 GWh + Distributed =

Little Need for TransmissionLittle Need for Transmission• Solar Thermal: 2,400,000 GWh• Wave & Marine Current: 92,500 GWH

Source: RETI Phase 1A Report, CEC, 2008

WHAT LOOKS PROMISING?

• Caution: Site Specific Most Important for Cost & Environmental Impact

• Lowest Cost & Most Mature: Wind, Small Hydro, Geothermal, LFG, Biomass

• Wind & Solar PV Poses Largest Challenge for System Reliability

• Least Environmental Impact + Little Transmission N d PV R ftNeed = PV on Rooftops

• Resources Availability: Near-Term = Wind, Biomass, Geothermal; Long Term = Solar


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