renewable energy in the present and the future
DESCRIPTION
Renewable Energy in the Present and the Future. CERN Geneva 23 October 2013. Consequences of fossil energy dependence. The resources are not evenly distributed worldwide Supply security risk Interest to replace imports with indigenous resources Fossil fuels are costly and prices fluctuate - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
CERN Geneva23 October 2013
Renewable Energy in the Present and the Future
Consequences of fossil energydependence
• The resources are not evenly distributed worldwide Supply security risk Interest to replace imports with indigenous resources
• Fossil fuels are costly and prices fluctuate Some countries spend more than 10% of GDP on fossil fuel imports IEA projects that fossil fuel prices will continue to rise Global shale gas prospects outside US are unclear Minigrid and offgrid solutions for electrification of remote communities – diesel
based power generation is very expensive• Significant local air pollution damages• The latest IPCC report stresses the risk of climate change
Burning of fossil fuels, especially coal, is a prime source of GHG emissions• Renewable energy and energy efficiency are widely accepted as sustainable solutions
UN SE4ALL initiative calls for a doubling of RE share and doubling of efficiency gains by 2030
IRENA as hub for renewable energy2
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International Renewable Energy Agency Established April 2011
Mission: Accelerate deployment of renewable energyScope: Hub, voice and source of objective information for
renewable energyMembers: 161 partner countries; 119 ratified members
(global scope) Mandate: Sustainable deployment of the six RE resources
(Biomass, Geothermal, Hydro, Ocean, Solar, Wind)Structure: Three programmatic divisions CSP, IITC, KPFC Location: Headquarters in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Innovation and Technology Centre IITC, Bonn, GermanyDirector-General: Adnan Amin
About IRENA
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International Renewable Energy Agency: 119 Member Countries and growing rapidly
Members of the Agency Signatories/States in Accession
More than 160 partner countries
1RENEWABLE ENERGY SITUATION AND TRENDS
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Globally 18% RE in Total Final Energy Consumption in 2010Half is traditional biomass, 8.4% modern renewables
Source: Global Tracking Report,2013
Overall share of renewable energy has remained quite flat, albeit some sources grew exponentially from a small base
Growth 1990-2010 by country
About half of the new electricity generation capacity worldwide is based on renewable
energyThe share has doubled in recent years
9Source: IRENA
Global capacity additions 201141 GW Wind30 GW Hydropower30 GW Solar PV <1 GW Solar CSP 5 GW Biomass<1 GW Geothermal
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Global capacity additions 2012 45 GW Wind 29 GW Hydropower 31 GW Solar PV<1 GW Solar CSP 5 GW Biomass<1 GW Geothermal
Clean energy market size USD 269 bln/yr (investment)Nearly double with inclusion of:• Large hydro • End-use sector equipment (heatpumps etc)• Biofuel feedstock
Installed capacity1100 GW hydro300 GW wind100 GW solar PV70 GW biomass15 GW geothermal
LCOE ranges and averagesRE is cost effective today in many cases
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2RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTIONS FOR 2030
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What does it mean to double the RE share?
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20302010 2020
10
20
30
(%)
18
RE share incl. traditional biomass
SE4ALL target
9 RE share without traditional biomass
What does doubling mean?• Today 18% renewables including 9%
modern renewables• Business-as-usual 2030: 21%
renewables• Target: 30-36% renewables• Gap: 9-15%• 36% renewables – up to half of global
GHG reductions (CO2 and CH4)TFEC = Total Final Energy ConsumptionTFEC share covers direct use of renewable energy plus energy and heat from renewable sources Global Tracking Framework – May 2013
36
% TFEC
30
12
Business as usual
9-15%GAP
REMAP 2030 - Scope
26 countries representing 75% of global energy demand by 2030Represents 58% of world population in 2012, 56% in 203060% of global PPP in 2012Country Dialogue is crucial and ongoingResults are aggregated to produce a global cost curve 13
REMAP Countries:AUSTRALIABRAZILCANADACHINADENMARKECUADORFRANCEGEMANYINDIAINDONESIAITALYJAPANMALAYSIAMEXICOMOROCCONIGERIARUSSIASAUDIA ARABIASOUTH AFRICASOUTH KOREATONGATURKEYUNITED ARAB EMIRATESUNITED KINGDOMUNITED STATESUKRAINE
Methodology at a Glance
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IRENA technology database
IRENACosting studies
Learning curves/cost reduction
assessments
Sectoral/technology studies
Country Reference Scenarios
Potentials
Reference FF/Nuclear technologies
Cost curves
Fuel prices, taxes, subsidies, capital cost
External effects
Substitution cost
REMAP Options
The Reference Scenario
• Includes all policies in place or likely to be put in place in the coming years
• Some countries have scenarios and objectives for 2030, others not
• Supplemented by IEA WEO 2012 data• Reference scenario includes efficiency gains• No cost assessment of the reference scenario• Planning framework comparison will be part of the analysis
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How to double the RE shareAccess and efficiency can help to double the share
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
RE sh
are
(%)
2010
leve
l
Refe
renc
e ca
se
REM
AP O
ption
s
Mod
ern
ener
gy a
cces
s
Ener
gy e
fficie
ncy
Early
retir
emen
t
Mod
al sh
iftEl
ectr
ifica
tion
Indu
stry
relo
ca-
tion
Brea
kthr
ough
te
chno
logi
es
SE4ALL
Access and EE REMAP RE+/radical change
Renewable energy policy Other energy policy Energy revolution
Total renewables grow from: • 20% (Ref. 2030) • 29.3% (REMAP)
Modern renewables grow from: • 8.7% (2010)• 14.9% (Ref. 2030)• 27.3% (REMAP)
Traditional biomass declines from 8% to 5% in Ref. 2030 to 2% in REMAP**assessment imprecise b/c large amount of traditional biomass is consumed outside of REMAP 25 countries
Impact of all REMAP options Combined DRAFT
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28-65
-45
-25
-5
15
35
55
TOTAL - REMAP 25 (N) REMAP Options
Share of renewable energy use in REMAP TFEC (Reference 2030 - REMAP 2030) (%)
Aver
age
Incr
emen
tal c
ost o
f sub
titut
ion
(USD
/GJT
FEC)
353 REMAP Options
Weighted Average Substitution Cost=
+1.37 USD/GJ TFEC
Additional RE Consumption
REMAP: 41 EJ/yr
Total Annualized Substitution Cost/year
57 Bln (USD 2010)(<1% of 4 trillion total annualized cost for
350 options)
Growth of modern Renewablesfrom 9 to 15%
Traditional biomass in Reference Scenario (to be replaced) - from 19.5 to 15 %
REMAP Options – from 15 to 28%
REMAP 25 Cost CurveDRAFT
REMAP Options Cost Curve with Tech/Resource Breakdown DRAFT
19
-12
-7
-2
3
8
13
18
23
28
Average Weighted Cost of Substitution (3.4 USD/GJ)
9.11.13.15.17.19.21.23.25.27.29.
REMAP 25 Cost Supply Curve (international)by RE resource (2010-2030)
Solar PVCSPSolar ThermalGeo-thermalBiomass Tradi-tionalBiomass OtherBiofuelBiogasHydroWind OnshoreWind OffshoreOceanRE Mobil-ity
Cumulative Renewable Energy Share in TFEC (%)
Ave
rage
Incr
emen
tal C
ost o
f Sub
stitu
tion
(US
D 2
010/
GJ
TFE
C)
Reference Case Developments
Modal Shift to TramHeat Pumps (buildings)
Hydro (large)
Wind Onshore
Geothermal (power)Bioethanol (2nd Gen)
Biomass CHP (district heat)Biodiesel
Solar Water HeatingBioethanol (1st Gen)
Biomass Heat/CHP (industry)Solar PV (utility)Modern Biomass Cooking
Wind Offshore
Biomass Heat (buildings)
Hydro (small)
Solar Thermal Heating/CoolingWind Onshore (early retirement)
Solar PV (rooftop)Biomas Gasification (industry)
Solar CSP w/ Storage Solar Thermal (Industry)
Plug-in HybridBiomass (power)Hydrogen Transport
Battery Electric Vehicles
REMAP options - sectoral Power sector represents only one third of total potential DRAFT
How to double the global RE share?
• Up to a third RE is possible at approximately zero cost by 2030• However policies in place yield only 20% RE in 2030
RE potential is not yet fully reflected in the policy plans and scenarios• Power sector accounts for around 40% of total potential
The role of end use sectors is critical to meet the doubling objective• Sustainable biomass plays a key role, around 60% of total potential
Residues, energy crops, more efficient use of resources• Electrification can increase RE deployment
For example electric vehicles• Technology innovation can push the envelope
More affordable technology Increase of the RE potential
(offshore wind, advanced biofuels, grid integration technology, etc)21
3RE TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION
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Innovation matches new energy market needs with technological solutionsMost innovation is gradual, not disruptive
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Bio-refineries
Floating Turbines
Wave Energy Technology
Fully Integrated Residential Solar Technologies
Have
http://images.nrel.gov/
Innovation supports wholetechnology life cycle
DemonstrationApplied R&D Market Development
Commercial Diffusion
Market Pull
Technology Push
Basic R&D
RD&D cooperation③
Standardization②①
< Setting enabling Innovation Policy Framework >
Enabling technology deployment④
Patenting/ Licensing
Source: IRENA (2012)
DiffusionCommer - cialisation
Demon - stration
Research & Development
Basic Research
Product/ Technology Push
Market PullSupply
•Academia
•Research centres
•Business
Demand
•Consumers
•Energy sector
•Government
•Exports
Innovation policy frameworks
Framework conditions: macro economic stability, education and skills development, innovative business climate, IP protection etc.
The Innovation System
Standardization across the technology life cycle
25Source: - Adapted from IEA - ETP 2008
Technology life cycle
Technology standards• Reliability and performance of
technologies• Demand, market acceptance,
investment and uptake of technologies
• Technical capacity on testing, certification and reliability in developing countries
• 714 international standards were identified• These are not widely know or deployed• International standards are lacking in some areas• Standards can
Provide a detailed technical basis for laws and regulations
Support public and private tendering processes Provide insights regarding latest technology developments
and best practices Support technology markets based on sound quality and
health & safety (H&S) requirements Also energy management standards eg ISO 50 001
Standardization – Benefits forcountries
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Patents for RET
IRENA’s Working Paper
The role of patents in RET innovation still needs to be better understood. Different views – Incentivize / Restrain
Patents seen as an engine for innovation in R&D intensive sectors. Further analysis is still required for RET sector.
Patenting in most renewable energy areas has increased more than five-fold in the last two decades – more than 200 000 patents in place
Few renewable energy patents have been filed outside OECD countries and China
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Patents can provide additional information on innovation trends
Cumulative patent families in desalination and renewable energy
Source: WIPO (2011)
Key remarks on RE Patents
RET patent information can provide:
• Which countries and innovators are active
• Which countries are potential markets
• Trends of technology developments
• International research and co-operation as indicated by co-inventionGovernments, through
their patent offices, must be stewards of patent qualitySource: WIPO (2011)
THANK YOU !WWW.IRENA.ORG
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