reliance u.s. equity opportunities fund€¦ · morningstar investment adviser india private...
TRANSCRIPT
Reliance U.S. Equity Opportunities Fund (A Open Ended Diversified Equity Scheme) Offer for Sale of Units at Rs.10/- per unit during the new fund offer period NFO Opens – July 03, 2015
NFO Closes – July 17 , 2015
Slide 2
Product Label
Slide
3
U.S Equity Opportunities Fund
Consumption based Economy
Why U.S.?
U.S.: Growth Drivers
Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund
Slide 4
Source: Bloomberg, IMF, World Economic Outlook
United States of America (USA)
Market Capitalization: $23 trillion (36% of Global Market Cap)
At $18.1 trillion, US is the biggest economy in the world basis GDP.
US is also the biggest market basis Market Capitalization.
Such size can have a significant influences on global equity markets.
`
Home to a quarter of Fortune 500 companies
GDP : $18.1 trillion (20% of Global GDP)
Slide
U.S.: Home to the best companies
5
U.S. markets open doors to invest in the most innovative, efficiently
managed and unique companies.
more than 50% of the top 100 co’s are of U.S domicile and quarter of fortune
500 companies are headquartered in USA.
15
3
4
6
8
11
53
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Rest of the World
Australia
France
Germany
United Kingdom
China/HK
United States
More than 50
of top 100 co’s
by size are of
U.S. domicile
Source: Bloomberg
Slide
Returns offered by US equity
markets could be different
from domestic equity markets
in different phases.
6
U.S. Markets: An opportunity to diversify
Source: Bloomberg. * YTD performance from 01-Jan-15 to 30-Jun-15. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future.
Period Correlation
3 years 0.25
5 years 0.26
10 years 0.29
Low
correlation,
hence potential
to diversify
Correlation between Daily Nifty
Returns and Daily S&P 500 Returns
Calendar Year Returns (absolute)
-23
18
44
0.8
-52
-25
5
-0.3
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
2008 2011 2013 2015 YTD*
S&P 500 Index (INR) CNX Nifty Index
Ret
urn
s (%
)
Slide 7
Diversification could be the key …
Over the last 5 years, the movement of S&P BSE Sensex Index is compared to
the returns of (80% S&P BSE Sensex + 20% S&P 500 Index*)
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Jan-1
0
Mar-
10
M
ay-1
0
Jul-10
Sep-1
0
Oct-
10
Dec-1
0
Feb-1
1
Apr-
11
Jun-1
1
Aug-1
1
Oct-
11
Dec-1
1
Feb-1
2
Apr-
12
Jun-1
2
Aug-1
2
Oct-
12
Dec-1
2
Feb-1
3
Apr-
13
Jun-1
3
Aug-1
3
Oct-
13
Dec-1
3
Feb-1
4
Apr-
14
Jun-1
4
Aug-1
4
Oct-
14
Dec-1
4
Feb-1
5
Apr-
15
Jun-1
5
Sensex 80% Sensex + 20% S&P 500
Diversifying your investments could give you different
returns as compared to investing in one single market
Period
S&P BSE
Sensex
Index
80% S&P BSE
Sensex + 20%
S&P 500 Index*
3 years 15.41% 9.65%
5 years 17.17% 11.72%
10 years 25.65% 17.74%
Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
80% S&P BSE Sensex + 20% S&P
500* Index has lower Standard
Deviation as compared to S&P BSE
Sensex Index, signifying lower
volatility as compared to Indian
Equity Markets
Ind
ex M
ove
men
t -
No
rmal
ized
Val
ues
Index Movement (Normalized Values)
The above mentioned index movement is after considering currency movement during said period. Further, the index values mentioned in the indices
are pre-tax values. Actual movement may vary after discounting currency and taxation. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future.
* S&P 500 Index is in INR Terms
Source: Bloomberg *
Slide 8
Potential benefit from currency movement
Source: Bloomberg.
USD/INR Depreciation
Jul-00 44.6700
Jul-01 47.1300 5.51%
Jul-02 48.8450 3.64%
Jul-03 46.4350 -4.93%
Jul-04 45.8850 -1.18%
Jul-05 43.5500 -5.09%
Jul-06 46.0700 5.79%
Jul-07 40.6600 -11.74%
Jul-08 43.3300 6.57%
Jul-09 47.8925 10.53%
Jul-10 46.5750 -2.75%
Jul-11 44.5825 -4.28%
Jul-12 55.4275 24.33%
Jul-13 59.5225 7.39%
Jul-14 60.0750 0.93%
Jul-15 63.6050 5.88%
Total Depreciation since Jul-00
42%
Average Depreciation since Jul-00
2.83%
38
42
46
50
54
58
62
66
70
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jun-1
2
Jun-1
3
Jun-1
4
Jun-1
5
USD/INR
INR has depreciated 42% (cumulative) since July-00
against the USD
That translates into a currency gain of 2.83% on an
average each year
Slide
Consumption based economy
9
US: A Consumption Based Economy
Consumption constitutes 70% of the total U.S. GDP and is the
biggest contributor of GDP growth.
Data as on Dec-14. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Morningstar ®
Slide
96.5
97
97.5
98
98.5
99
99.5
100
Mar-
10
Jun-1
0
Sep-1
0
Dec-1
0
Mar-
11
Jun-1
1
Sep-1
1
Dec-1
1
Mar-
12
Jun-1
2
Sep-1
2
Dec-1
2
Mar-
13
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-1
3
Mar-
14
Jun-1
4
Sep-1
4
Dec-1
4
Mar-
15
Jun-1
5
Wage Trend Indicator Index*
10
Job Openings on the Rise
Increased Job openings with higher wages could lead to increased
disposable income in the hands of the consumer
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
Jan-1
0
Apr-
10
Jul-10
Oct-
10
Jan-1
1
Apr-
11
Jul-11
Oct-
11
Jan-1
2
Apr-
12
Jul-12
Oct-
12
Jan-1
3
Apr-
13
Jun-1
3
Sep-1
3
Dec-1
3
Mar-
14
Jun-1
4
Sep-1
4
Dec-1
4
Mar-
15
Job Openings
US job openings have doubled
since Jan-10
Expected wage earnings have
shown a positive tend since
2013
* Wage Trend Indicator is an index that reflects trend in US private industry wages. The Index is benchmarked
to 100 in 1976.
Source: Bloomberg. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in the future
Job
op
enin
gs (
‘00
0)
Slide 11
US: Personal Savings on a rise..
Personal Savings Rate has seen a sharp rise since Nov-2014.
Higher Savings Rate could fuel consumption growth in the near
future.
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Morningstar ®. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in the future
Personal Saving Rate correspond to the ratio of personal income saved to personal net disposable income
Slide
Tumbling Gasoline Prices Pushed Down U.S. Inflation
12
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Jan-0
5
Jun-0
5
Nov-0
5
Apr-
06
Sep-0
6
Feb-0
7
Jul-07
Dec-0
7
May-0
8
Oct-
08
Mar-
09
Aug-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jun-1
0
Nov-1
0
Apr-
11
Sep-1
1
Feb-1
2
Jul-12
Dec-1
2
May-1
3
Oct-
13
Mar-
14
Aug-1
4
Jan-1
5
Jun-1
5
Gasoline Price
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-0
5
Jun-0
5
Nov-0
5
Apr-
06
Sep-0
6
Feb-0
7
Jul-07
Dec-0
7
May-0
8
Oct-
08
Mar-
09
Aug-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jun-1
0
Nov-1
0
Apr-
11
Sep-1
1
Feb-1
2
Jul-12
Dec-1
2
May-1
3
Oct-
13
Mar-
14
Aug-1
4
Jan-1
5
Jun-1
5
Bloomberg Commodity Price Index
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-0
5
May-0
5
Sep-0
5
Jan-0
6
May-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-0
7
May-0
7
Sep-0
7
Jan-0
8
May-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
May-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-1
1
May-1
1
Sep-1
1
Jan-1
2
May-1
2
Sep-1
2
Jan-1
3
May-1
3
Sep-1
3
Jan-1
4
May-1
4
Sep-1
4
Jan-1
5
May-1
5
Consumer Price Index
Inflation
below
long
term
average
Sharp fall in gasoline and other commodity prices have led to a fall in inflation, which could
leave consumers with higher disposable income, thus leading to the increased consumption.
Source: Bloomberg. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in the future
$ p
er g
allo
n
Slide
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
Mar-
00
Dec-0
0
Sep-0
1
Jun-0
2
Mar-
03
Dec-0
3
Sep-0
4
Jun-0
5
Mar-
06
Dec-0
6
Sep-0
7
Jun-0
8
Mar-
09
Dec-0
9
Sep-1
0
Jun-1
1
Mar-
12
Dec-1
2
Sep-1
3
Jun-1
4
Mar-
15
Corporate Profits …
Industrial Activity and Corporate profits on the rise..
13
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jul-00
Mar-
01
Nov-0
1
Jul-02
Mar-
03
Nov-0
3
Jul-04
Mar-
05
Nov-0
5
Jul-06
Mar-
07
Nov-0
7
Jul-08
Mar-
09
Nov-0
9
Jul-10
Mar-
11
Nov-1
1
Jul-12
Mar-
13
Nov-1
3
Jul-14
Mar-
15
Industrial Production Index - Manufacturing
After seeing a slump during the slowdown, both Industrial Production
and Corporate Profits have picked up and are in an upward trend
$ B
illio
n
Source: Bloomberg. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in the future
Corporate Profits of Listed companies in USD Billion Industrial Production Index - Manufacturing. Benchmarked
to 100 in 2007
Slide
Strong USD may have little impact of U.S. Economy
14
Source: Bloomberg, Morningstar ®. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in the future
Though the USD has shown an upward trend recently, exports contribute
only 13% to the total GDP, and hence the accelerating USD should not be a
cause of concern for U.S.
Slide
Recovery on the way …
15
Source: Stocks—Ibbotson Associates SBBI U.S. Large Stock Index. © 2015 Morningstar. ®. Past Performance may or may not be sustained in the future
Historically, in the U.S., every recession is followed by a recovery and an expansion.
The markets have shown a recovery after the global financial crisis.
We could be at the beginning of an expansion in the U.S. equity markets.
Perc
enta
ge R
etu
rns
(%)
2015
Slide
US has the world’s largest economy (GDP) and also the largest Equity
Market.
US GDP is 20% of the global GDP and US Market capitalization is 36% of the
global Market capitalization.
US is home to the most innovative and efficient co’s in the world.
A quarter of fortune 500 companies are headquartered in the US and 50 out of the
100 world’s largest companies are of US domicile.
US markets offer an opportunity to diversify.
Very low correlation between US and Indian Equity Markets (0.29 over the last 10
years).
US is a consumption based economy.
Consumption contributes 70% to the total GDP and factors like lower inflation, higher
wages and higher savings could lead to accelerated consumption.
16
Summary
The U.S. economy is a Resilient and Adaptable Economy
Source: Bloomberg, IMF, World Economic Outlook
Slide 17
PRESENTING
Reliance U.S. Equity
Opportunities Fund (An Open Ended Diversified Equity Scheme)
Research Support by
Slide
An open-ended diversified equity scheme
The scheme will primarily invest into equity and equity related securities of
companies listed on recognized stock exchanges in the US.
Benchmark: S&P 500 Index
The investment strategy would be powered by the research support of
Morningstar Investment Adviser India Private Limited (MIA), a group company
of Morningstar, Inc.
Morningstar employs their proprietary research methodology, focused on
Economic Moats, to identify investment opportunities.
Companies having sustainable competitive advantages that allow them to earn excess returns
over a long period of time are identified as having an Economic Moat.
Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund proposes to follow the ‘Hare’ strategy
for its investments.
The Hare Portfolio invests in stocks of firms that are experiencing rapid growth, emphasizing
those that possess sustainable competitive advantages.
18
Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund
Slide
Morningstar® Equity Research
19
Source: Morningstar ®
A differentiated approach to Equity Research
Fundament
-al
Analysis
Economic
Moat
Rating
Company
Valuation
Fair Value
Estimate
Uncertainty
Assessme
nt
Analyst
conducts
company and
industry
research
-Financial
Statements
- Management
Visits,
-Industry & Co.
Reports
Analyst rates
the strength of
competitive
advantage:
None, Narrow
or Wide
Analyst
considers past
financial results
and focuses on
competitive
position and
future prospects
to forecast cash
flows
Analyst uses
discounted cash
flow model to
develop Fair
Value Estimate ,
which serves as
a foundation for
Morningstar
Rating TM for
stocks
The analyst then
evaluates the range
of potential intrinsic
values for the
company and
assigns an
uncertainty rating:
Low, Medium, High,
Very High or Extreme
. The uncertainty
rating determines the
margin of safety
required before the
analyst recommends
the stock
The current stock price relative to Morningstar’s Fair Value estimate adjusted for uncertainty, determines the Morningstar Ratings for stocks
Slide
Morningstar® Strategy
20
Source: Morningstar ®
Five Morningstar ratings which drive stock selection:
Economic Moats
Sustainable competitive advantages of a company
Moat Trends
Is the competitive advantage stable or improving
Stewardship
Does Management Protect Shareholder’s interest
Price/Fair Value Ratios
Stock Price compared to Intrinsic Value
Uncertainty
Greater uncertainty requires a larger margin of safety
Morningstar® recommends investment in companies with strong and growing competitive advantages, trading at Reasonable Prices.
Slide
“The key to investing is …determining the competitive advantage of any given company and,
above all, the durability of that advantage. The products or services that have wide, sustainable
moats around them are the ones that deliver rewards to investors”. – Warren Buffet
MOAT: A sustainable competitive advantage
21
Source: Morningstar ®
Economic moats represent sustainable competitive advantage that allow companies
to protect their value and lead to excess returns.
Has the firm historically
generated solid returns on
capital?
Is the firm’s future likely
to be different than its
past?
Does the firm have one or more
of the following competitive
advantages?
• Switching Costs
• Network Effect
• Intangible Assets
• Cost Advantage
• Efficient Scale
How strong is the firm’s
competitive advantage? Is it
likely to last a long time or a
relatively short time?
How many years will the firm’s
competitive advantage last?
1. Returns
No
Yes
No
2. Advantages
Yes
No Moat
3. Longevity
10+ Years
Narrow
Moat
20+ Years
Wide
Moat
No
No Moat
> 10 years
No Moat
Slide
The Morningstar® Hare Strategy
22
Morningstar® Strategy: Invest in companies with strong and growing
competitive advantages, trading at reasonable prices
Source: Morningstar ®
The Hare Portfolio invests in stocks of firms that are
experiencing rapid growth, emphasizing those that
possess sustainable competitive advantages.
Companies in this portfolio tend to be faster-growing,
with both higher risk and higher return potential.
Companies with wide or narrow moats, positive or stable
moat trends, and medium or high uncertainty form a part
of the Hare Portfolio.
Slide
Value Core Growth
9 6 58 Large
0 5 3 Medium
0 5 0 Small
Hare Strategy: April 2015 Portfolio
23
Style Breakdown (%) Top Sectors (%)
Financial Services 26.2
Technology 15.7
Consumer Cyclical 15.2
Healthcare 13.8
Basic Material 7.3
42 44
High
Medium
43
43 Exemplary
Standard
64
22
Wide
Narrow
Portfolio Distribution (%)
32
55 Positive
Stable
Moat Moat Trend
Uncertainty Stewardship
Source: Morningstar ®
Hare Portfolio is
characterized by:
Aggressive picks
(growth companies)
Wide or Narrow Moats
Positive or Stable Moat
Trends
Medium or High
uncertainty
Slide
Scheme Facts
24
Slide
Scheme Features
25
Investment
Objective
Option
Minimum
Application
Amount
The primary investment objective of Reliance US Equity Opportunities Fund is to provide long
term capital appreciation to investors by primarily investing in equity and equity related
securities of companies listed on recognized stock exchanges in the US and the secondary
objective is to generate consistent returns by investing in debt and money market securities in
India.
a) Growth Plan: Growth Option
b) Dividend Plan: Dividend Payout Option & Dividend Re-investment Option
Rs. 5,000 and in multiples of Re.1 thereafter
Benchmark S&P 500 Index
Asset Allocation
Equity and Equity related Instruments listed on the recognized stock exchanges in the US :
80% -100%;
Fixed income securities, including money market instruments, cash and equivalent, Treasury
bills and fixed deposits in India: 0% - 20%
Load Structure
Exit Load:
1% if redeemed or switched out on or before completion of 1 year from the date of allotment of
units.
Nil if redeemed or switched out after the completion of 1 year from the date of allotment of units.
Slide 26
Scheme Specific Risk Factors:
1. Currency movements: Since these investments will be made and held in a different currency (the US Dollar), their value
will be dependent on currency movements of the USD vis-à-vis the INR, which in turn may be determined or influenced by
a host of factors like inflow and outflow of foreign investments to and from India, the relative strength of the USD vies-a-
vies other currencies, relative current and future interest rates, domestic economic and political developments and
government actions both in the United States (US) and in India, and given that the USD is a currency used in international
trade, by factors not relating directly to either country (like international prices of commodities like oil and gold, trade flows
and conflicts in other regions), among other things. These currency movements may reduce or even wipe out gains made
on the market in the US as investments would be denominated in USD whereas Net Asset Values would be denominated
in INR and purchases and redemptions of units would also take place in INR. Generally, a strengthening of the INR vis-à-
vis the USD (i.e. less INR per USD) would lead to reduction in NAV in INR terms, other things remaining the same. To
manage risks associated with the portfolio, foreign currency and interest rate exposure, the Fund may use / invest in
derivatives for efficient portfolio management including hedging and in accordance with the conditions as may be
stipulated by SEBI / RBI. The Fund also hereby avers that offshore investments shall be made subject to any / all
approvals, as well as the conditions thereof as may be stipulated by SEBI / RBI and provided such investments do not
result in expenses to the fund in excess of the ceiling, if any, on the expenses prescribed by SEBI. However, no
assurance can be given that the hedging objectives will be achieved. The hedging strategy may also substantially limit
Unit holders from benefiting if the currencies move in the opposite direction. Additionally, Unit holders may be exposed to
fluctuations in the NAV caused by fluctuations in the mark-to-market value of derivative instruments, in the rare event
where such instruments do not move in tandem to underlying USD-INR rates (known as ‘basis’ risk). The Fund may,
where necessary, appoint other intermediaries of repute such as advisors, sub-managers, sub-custodian etc. for
managing and administering such investments. The appointment of such intermediaries shall be in accordance with the
applicable requirements of SEBI and within the permissible ceilings of expenses. The fees and expenses would
illustratively include, besides the investment management fee, custody fees and costs, fees of appointed overseas
advisors and sub-managers, transaction costs, and overseas regulatory cost.
2. Risks related to Taxation: Since these investments will be made in the US, they will be subject to taxation laws of the
US and changes therein. Hence, the taxation rules that apply at the time of making the investment may change when
investments are exited and the scheme may be subject to a higher level of taxes than originally anticipated. The
continuance of assessments may also impact the AMC’s ability to repatriate funds relating to the scheme from the US to
India.
Slide
Disclaimers:
The information herein is meant only for general reading purposes and the views being expressed only constitute opinions and therefore cannot be considered as guidelines, recommendations or as a professional guide for the readers. Certain factual and statistical information (historical as well as projected) pertaining to Industry and markets have been obtained from independent third-party sources, which are deemed to be reliable. It may be noted that since RCAM has not independently verified the accuracy or authenticity of such information or data, or for that matter the reasonableness of the assumptions upon which such data and information has been processed or arrived at; RCAM does not in any manner assures the accuracy or authenticity of such data and information. Some of the statements & assertions contained in these materials may reflect RCAM’s views or opinions, which in turn may have been formed on the basis of such data or information.
Before making any investments, the readers are advised to seek independent professional advice, verify the contents in order to arrive at an informed investment decision. None of the Sponsor, the Investment Manager, the Trustee, their respective directors, employees, affiliates or representatives shall be liable in any way for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including on account of lost profits arising from the information contained in this material.
The research support provided to RCAM by MIA is not be to construed as investment advice under applicable law. MIA, its affiliates, officers, directors and employees shall be responsible/liable neither for any trading decisions, damages or other losses related to the research or its use, nor for the accuracy, timeliness and/or completeness of the research
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
27
Thank you