rei voice magazine dec- jan 2012

Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE �

INSIDE FANNIE MAE WITH DOUGLAS DUNCAN • FORGET AFFORDABILITY

www.reivoice.com December- January 2012

$4.95

2012 REAL ESTATE MARKET FORECASTMARKET INSIDERS HAVE THEIR SAY

2012 REAL ESTATE MARKET FORECASTMARKET INSIDERS HAVE THEIR SAY

� REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012

Page 1

LOCATION: DESERT HOT

SPRINGS, CA

APPRAISED VALUE: $86,000

LOAN AMOUNT: $50,000

LOAN TO VALUE: 58.13%

PAYMENT TO INVESTOR: $375

RENT RANGE: $900-$1400

TERM OF LOAN: 8 YEARS

Property Facts:

3 BEDROOM, 2 BATHROOMS, 1,323 SF, 8,712 SF. LOT, BUILT IN 1990.

#

1 $900 TH 3 br/2 ba 1,294 sqft 66444 Desert View Ave Desert Hot Springs,

CA 92240

7/13/2010

2 $900 SFH 3 br/2 ba 1,412

sqft

13725 Richard Way Desert Hot Springs, CA

92240

7/13/2010

3 $900 SFH 3 br/2 ba 1,200

sqft

65635 Avenida Ladera Desert Hot Springs,

CA 92240

7/13/2010

4 $1,025 SFH 3 br/2 ba 1,371

sqft

13227 Calle Amapola Desert Hot Springs,

CA 92240

7/13/2010

5 $1,100 SFH 3 br/2 ba 1,385

sqft

10775 Ambrosio Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA

92240

7/13/2010

6 $1,200 SFH 3 br/2 ba 1,550

sqft

10761 San Miguel Rd Desert Hot Springs,

CA 92240

7/13/2010

7 $1,350 SFH 3 br/2 ba 1,904

sqft

64735 Pinehurst Cir Desert Hot Springs, CA

92240

7/13/2010

8 $1,400 SFH 3 br/2 ba 1,634

sqft

64513 Spyglass Ave Desert Hot Springs, CA

92240

7/13/2010

If you are interested in this trust deed investment and would like to see the entire appraisal,

please call the of ce at 951-780-5856 and ask for Craig Hill.

We currently work with several self-directed IRA companies to enable our investors to fund

these through retirement accounts. If you’d like a list of IRA rms, please call the of ce and

ask for Aaron Norris or Diana Barlet.

Below are a few recent examples of trust deeds available through The Norris Group.

Location: Fontana, CAAppraised Value: $170,000Loan Amount: $102,000Loan to Value: 60%Payment to Investor: $765 per month

Location: Desert Hot Springs, CAAppraised Value: $86,000Loan Amount: $50,000Loan to Value: 58.13%Payment to Investor: $375 per month

Location: Hesperia, CAAppraised Value: $92,000Loan Amount: $55,000Loan to Value: 59.78%Payment to Investor: $412 per month

Location: Victorville, CAAppraised Value: $75,000Loan Amount: $45,000Loan to Value: 60%Payment to Investor: $562 per month

To receive property information sheets of available trust deeds and a copy of our free book and DVD on trust deed investing, call our office at 951-780-5856.

Page 1

LOCATION: FONTANA, CAAPPRAISED VALUE: $170,000LOAN AMOUNT: $102,000LOAN TO VALUE: 60%PAYMENT TO INVESTOR: $765RENTED: $1,650 PER MONTHTERM OF LOAN: 8 YEARS

Property Facts:Duplex with total of 3 bedroom, 2 Bathrooms, 1,470 sf, 9,000 sf. lot, built in 1949. One two bed-

room on bath unit and single one bedroom one bathroom.

If you are interested in this trust deed investment and would like to see the entire appraisal,

please call the of ce at 951-780-5856 and ask for Craig Hill.

Zilpy.com – Rents (One Bedroom) #

1 $775 TH 1 br/ 9351 Bennett Ave, Fontana CA, 92335 6/4/2010

2$750 TH 1 br/

Bennett & Randall, Fontana CA, 92335 5/8/2010

3 $750 SFH 1 br/1 ba 8569 Rosena Ave, Fontana CA, 92335 7/15/2010

4$850 SFH 1 br/

16550 Arrow Blvd, Fontana CA, 92335 7/3/2010

5 $650 SFH 1 br/ 8047 Cypress, Fontana CA, 92336 6/4/2010

6$775 SFH 1 br/1 ba Sierra Ave & Valencia Ave, Fontana CA,

92335

1/17/2010

7 $675 SFH 1 br/1 ba Sierra Ave, Fontana CA, 92335 1/8/2010

Zilpy.com – Rents (Two Bedroom)#

1 $895 TH 2 br/1.5 ba 875 sqft 9151 Date St, Fontana CA, 92335 7/15/201

0

2$945 TH 2 br/1.5 ba

16235 Randall Ave, Fontana CA, 92335 7/15/2010

3 $950 TH 2 br/1 ba 17898 Marygold Ave, Bloomington CA,

92316 5/8/2010

4$945 TH 2 br/

Randall Ave & Citrus Ave, Fontana CA,

92335 7/3/2010

5$1,100 SFH 2 br/1 ba

16751 Hawthorne Ave, Fontana CA, 92335

7/3/2010

6$850 SFH 2 br/1 ba 800 sqft 9210 Pepper, Fontana CA, 92335

5/18/2010

7 $850 SFH 2 br/1 ba 9258 Pepper Ave, Fontana CA, 92335 5/8/2010

8$800 SFH 2 br/1 ba 950 sqft 9142 Pepper Ave, Fontana CA, 92335

40374

9 $775 SFH 2 br/1 ba 875 sqft 9148 Pepper Ave, Fontana CA, 92335 40264

10 $950 SFH 2 br/1 ba9040 Cypress Ave, Fontana CA, 92335 40333

1 bedroom

2 bedroom

w w w.TNGt rustdeeds.com951.780. 5856

Cal i for nia D ep ar tm ent of R eal E s t ate, R eal E s t ate Bro kerBr uce N or r is F inancia l G roup Inc .

D BA T h e N or r is G roupD R E L icens e 01219 911

California Trust Deed Investing

Savings accounts, CDs, and stocks have offered dismal returns over the past several years. The Norris Group’s trust deed investments earn 9% return backed

real estate.

Since 1997, our experienced team of experts has originated California trust deed investments to private individuals,

accounts (including IRAs).

of dollars every month and demand continues to increase. We scrutinize

a trust deed is ever presented to our private money sources.

resources are helping investors clean

DVD on trust deed investing.

Not everyone has the time or the expertise necessary to be a full-time real estate investor. But there’s still a way to take advantage of the unbelievable opportunity at hand. Welcome to the world of trust deed investing.

1

Call 951-780 -5856 or v isit our web

site today for your

Free Book and DVD.

California Trust Deed Investingby

Navigat ing the prof i table wor ld of t rust deed invest ing with the help of one of Cal i fornia’s leading hard money lending companies.

B y B ru ce N o rri s

8.875x11-IE-Magazine.indd 1 10/16/2010 10:52:31 AM

Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE �

ANALYSIS

6In Intimate Detail: U.S. Housing MarketREI Voice publisher Geraldine Barry interviews Douglas G. Duncan, Ph.D., Vice President and Chief Economist for Fannie Mae, about the state of the market and the current pounding Fannie and Freddie are taking from the politicos.

ADvICE

8Market Insiders Have Their SayWe asked several market insiders to give their thoughts about the state of the real estate market in �0��. Surprise--they don’t agree!

10Investing in 2012: One Property at a TimeOur entire industry is under attack, says Bruce Norris, President of The Norris Group. From investors, to retail agents, to appraisers, he’s received an earful about challenges facing the industry. Mr. Norris responds with characteristic thoughtfulness and sound advice.

142012 Real Estate Shaky for Everyone Except Smart InvestorsLori Greymont, CEO of Summit Assets Group, is bearish on the market, unless you’re talking about opportunities for real estate investors.

BASICS

15Planning Your Business for Your Best New YearDo you plan your business, or does your business plan you? Veteran businessman and real estate investor Tom Wilson shows how to construct a business plan to keep you focused in the right direction.

16Forget Affordability, Consider Capita per InventoryScott Sambucci, COO of Altos Research, does more than collect the numbers. He’s developed predictive models and says that everything you’ve been taught about housing affordability is wrong.

FEATURES

18SJREI Member of the YearLike many real estate investors, this SJREI member enjoyed the success of a rising market only to hit rock bottom when the market crashed. However, unlike most investors, he is willing to admit that he lost money in real estate and readily shares how he made his way back from the brink of bankruptcy.

19Blog World Expo 2011Aaron Norris got plussed at BlogWorld & New Media Expo--the first and only industry-wide conference, tradeshow and media event dedicated to blogging, podcasting, and social media. Don’t know what that means? Get with �0�� and read the article!

22 Ger’s Top 5INvESTOR RESOURCES

21 The best of the best. Phone/email/web contacts.

TABLE OF CONTENTSSOUND OPINION—WISE DECISIONS: VOICE OF THE PROFITABLE REAL ESTATE INVESTOR

WINNER

of the

National

REIA Award

for Best Print

Publication

� REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012

For this issue, I had the distinct honor of interviewing Douglas G. Duncan, Ph.D., Chief Economist for Fannie Mae. I came away with such deep respect for him, his incredibly bright perspective, and savvy take on the U.S. economy and people. It was such a pleasure to interview a Washington insider and to understand more fully the delicate dance that is required to navigate that world. We have had the plea-sure of hosting Doug as our keynote, at our sister company SJREI Association, and we are working on getting him on the calendar for 2012. Stay tuned for details on that special event and in the meantime enjoy my interview with Doug Duncan.

Our regular columnist Aaron Norris keeps us abreast of what we need to do to stay ahead of the curve in terms of so-cial media, and right now Google+ is where to focus your en-ergy as a professional - read his article to understand why.

Scott Sambucci of Altos Research shares his perspective on affordability in terms of “Capita per Inventory”...this is an interesting and thought-provoking article.

We had several people contribute their thoughts are on the real estate market and what to anticipate in 2012 --read this insightful piece and join the conversation by following the Facebook or Google+ links at www.REIVoice.com.

I, and the entire staff of REI Voice Magazine, wish each and every one of our readers the very best for 2012. May it be your best year yet and bring you many blessings.

Geraldine BarryPublisher

P.S. As an avid reader, I would like to share my top ten books for you to consider reading in 2012. I tend to fall in love with books that I enjoy. So much so, that I am oftentimes sad when I finish a good book. Case-in-point: Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson. This is a wonderful read. It confirms the industriousness and resilien-cy of Silicon Valley culture, and the creativity and distinctiveness of Steve Jobs, the man. I spent Thanksgiving in Ireland with my family. They are all avid users of iPods and iPhones . These devices are as prevalent across the Atlantic as they are here. Steve Jobs did indeed change the world.

PUBLISHER’S NOTE

WELCOMEWelcome to the final edition of REI Voice for �0��! I am very excited about this content rich issue - it has been so much fun putting it together, and we hope you enjoy it as much as we did.

GERALDINE BARRy

Publisher,President

of SJREI Association

REI Voice™ MagazineA publication of SJREI Association™

PublisherGeraldine Barry | 408-264-3198

[email protected]

editor-in-ChiefSusan Hare | 408-391-8068

[email protected]

Advertising sAlesMeghan Ben | 408-264-3198

[email protected]

Art direCtorKevin Bell

[email protected]

direCtor, AdministrAtionMeghan Ben | 408-264-3198

[email protected]

PrinterWestern Web

Western-Web.net

SJREI Association is a member of NREIA®

REI Voice™ is a publication of SJREI Association™ www.SJREI.org

Reproduction or use of any editorial or graphic is prohibited. To request reprints or reprint rights, contact [email protected].

REI Voice Magazinec/o SJREI Association4309 Sayoko CircleSan Jose, CA 95136www.REIVoice.com

Copyright © 2011 SJREI Association. All rights reserved.

GER’S READING LIST

�. Steve Jobs by Walter Isaacson

�. The Success Principals by Jack Canfield

�. The Buy & Hold Real Estate Strategy by David Schumacher

�. Think & Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill

5. Click: The Magic of Instant Connections by Rom Brafman

6. Developing the Leader Within You by John Maxwell

7. The Four Agreements: A Toltec Wisdom Book (A Practical Guide to Personal Freedom) by Miguel Ruiz

8. Millionaire Real Estate Investor by Gary Keller

9. Your Kids Are Your Own Fault: A Guide For Raising Responsible, Productive Adults by Larry Winget

�0. Made to Stick: Why Some Ideas Survive and Others Die by Chip Heath and Dan Heath

Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE 5

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6 REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012

ANALYSIS

An Interview with Douglas G. Duncan, Ph.D., Vice President and Chief Economist for Fannie Maeby Geraldine Barry

DOuGLAS G. DuNCAN

IN INTIMATE DETAIL:U.S. HOUSING MARkET


Ger: At a recent debate, all the Republican candidates felt the only thing that would help housing was fix-ing the economy. Do you think improv-ing the economy and lowering unem-ployment will do much to change the fact that �5% of homeowners with a mortgage are upside down?

Doug: If we get an improving econ-omy and growing employment (both big “if’s” at this point) it will help. Job growth begets income growth which begets household formation which be-gets housing demand both owned and rental which will put upward pressure on prices which will reduce the number of households underwater IN THOSE AREAS WITH JOB GROWTH.Ger: Is it possible that having such a large percentage of homeowners over burdened by mortgage debt is part of the problem with the economy? And if so won’t we need to fix housing in order to fix the economy?

Doug: Fixing the economy and fixing housing are closely correlated and somewhat causal. Housing sup-ports a host of supply industries so it has a bigger impact than a lot of other sectors. However, small business has to see future sales and profit growth potential before they start hiring. At present that is being forestalled by recession-level consumer pessimism and related business pessimism about the direction of the economy. Until there is a reduction in expected future taxes and regulatory burden, don’t expect strong growth.Ger: How has the performance of Fannie and Freddie’s mortgage debt compared to those of privately secu-ritized loans? And in terms of vintages where did the problems occur first... in Fannie and Freddie debt, or private securitized debt?

Doug: Investors treat GSE debt as though it has the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government. With cur-rent Federal Reserve purchase activity levels, they are rational to do so. This applies particularly to short term fund-ing. Longer term funding is effected by perceptions of what will ultimately be done with the two entities from a pol-icy perspective. The mortgage market problems appeared first in private label

securities, one reason the private secu-ritization market has yet to re-emerge. Fannie and Freddie did not cause the crisis...it had a number of parents. They did contribute to the magnitude of the crisis.Ger: If we do at some point come to the conclusion that we have to deal with negative equity, what do you think would be the best way to do it, with the fewest unintended consequences?

Doug: It is not perfectly clear what the net impact of a principal write-down would be. Clearly loans modified to reduce monthly payments perform better in proportion to the degree of the payment reduction. Therefore, re-duction of principal component of the monthly payment would contribute. However, the saving to the borrower is a loss to the investor. Whether the prob-ability of default and cost of that default is offset by a reduction in those two items is the question. It is not clear that the net social measurement is positive.Ger: How do you see the relationship between the general u.S. economy and international markets, particularly problems in Europe (primarily Greece and Italy) impacting the u.S. Is the u.S. on a similar track to Greece, or is our size and our resilience as a nation something that will help us out of this dilemma?

Doug: The U.S. is clearly on a fiscal path that could lead to a Greek type problem in the long run. The public grasps this which is part of the reason for the current ferment in the body politic. If we make the politically dif-ficult decisions rapidly we can rapidly return to a growth path taking us into a strong economic future. The appropri-ate actions are not hard to understand.

The U.S. economy will be affected by Europe’s problems through trade relationships and financial market connections. Bad things in European economic sectors have downside ef-fects in the U.S. Ger: What are your thoughts on China? Should we be concerned that they will become a more dominant force eco-nomically particularly as they hold a lot of our debt?

Doug: China has potential as a long term trading partner and has many

more difficult problems than we do, so I don’t fear them. They are a com-munist country with a growing middle class that may well increase pressure for more political freedom. As a re-sult of the one child policy, they also have a rapidly aging population with no social safety net and a shrinking relative workforce to support the older population. Also they have reached close to the end of their ability to invest and must shift to consumption which means wage increases which will re-duce their competitive advantage in labor costs and shift some advantage back to the U.S. (if we install growth ori-ented policies). They can’t sell off their U.S. debt without potentially adversely effecting their own income statement, so I don’t fear rapid liquidation of their U.S. holdings.Ger: Is this current negative economic situation beneficial in any way - what lesson has been learned from this economy?

Doug: It would never be a good thing to have 9 percent unemployment from either a human or resource utili-zation perspective. It is not clear that we have seen the kind of response in policy would that would indicate les-sons learned. The most important les-son is that leverage has both benefits and costs. We had far greater leverage in our economy than was healthy and the downside has been painful. The evidence that there is serious attention to leverage reduction is hard to come by. In fact, we have codified in law the existence of institutions which are too big to fail and the first test of the regu-latory apparatus that was to oversee them led to a regulatory failure (MF Global’s bankruptcy). We undertook massive government spending osten-sibly to spur economic growth and it failed. Many policymakers are still in denial of that fact. Prosperity is a hard-won result of nurturing a stable private sector with growth prospects and that lesson will hopefully be relearned and implemented.Ger: What positive signs to you see in terms of the u.S. and growth down the road?

Doug: The public has gotten the attention of the government and is in

ferment over the country’s debt, both current and future. If the public can overwhelm the special interests (some of which are themselves) and get con-trol of the entitlements, this is still the biggest economy in the world by a fac-tor of 4 and the best entrepreneurial talent in the world so the prospects for the future are undiminished. Unbridled entitlement growth and the belief that the government creates wealth are the legacy of Europe which the public is watching melt before their eyes. I be-lieve that is why 77% of the people in our survey say the economy is heading in the wrong direction.Ger: What do you like most about your job as Chief Economist for Fannie Mae? It is probably a very stressful position.

Doug: I have a great staff and enjoy coming to work with them every day. I like real estate. Everyone lives in some sort of building, and most work in some sort of building, and the buildings sit on land and always will. Almost all real estate is financed at some time. That means I am a part of everyone’s life every day and that is energizing. I love going out and speaking with the public; particularly the question and answer portion. Americans are great people and the most generous in the world.Ger: your favorite things to do to de-stress?

Doug: I love to read (history and biography) and listen to music (jazz and blues) although time for those is precious to come by. I also love to work outside physically having grown up on a farm and working in an office. I have been known to take a glass of pinot noir from time to time.Ger: What are your � or � most favorite sources for business news?

Doug: Wall Street Journal, Sunday New York Times, Forbes Magazine, vari-ous other print media including the web. No television.Ger: The best business or economy book you have read this year?

Doug: Rivers of Gold: The Rise of the Spanish Empire, from Columbus to Magellan by Hugh Thomas. I also read P.J. O’Rourke’s book on Adam Smith, On The Wealth of Nations. The Bible also has a lot of good advice on business conduct.

8 REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012

ADvICE

MArkET INSIdErS hAvE ThEIr SAy

“What should an investor do in 2012? Play it safe, but don’t hesitate to participate. My preference is to deal in a price range that allows me multiple options should a property not sell. I would stay away from the high-end properties, as financing will be more difficult to obtain and appraisals in that range will soon — and for the first time — have to take into account comps from foreclosures and short sales.”

Bruce Norris, President, The Norris Group

“As I look towards 2012, I can tell you that Sacramento will again become a ‘Cow Town,’ but this time I’m referring to a ‘Cash Cow.’ The rental market in Sacramento is great, and in 2012 the opportunity will continue to be ripe for investors to pick up great cash flow properties at bargain prices. Housing prices seem to be stabilizing. Combine that with the lowest interest rates I’ve ever seen and the cash flow is plentiful in California’s Capitol region.”

Tim Manke, Broker, TM Real Estate

“Could the housing market be in the progress of making a bottom? ...I’m still in the bearish camp and continue to believe there are significant downside risks in the market. While foreclosure filings dropped 31% in the last 12 months, the bad news is that they have risen 7% in each of the last two months - and are now sitting at a seven-month high. Thus, it appears that foreclosure activity is picking up again - which in due course will act as a negative pull on prices when these distressed properties hit the re-sale market.”

Robert Campbell, The Campbell Real Estate Timing Letter

“Low-end properties, the kind that make good rentals and that are easier to flip, are currently going like hotcakes across the Bay Area. They are likely to keep selling that way too.”

Stuart Baeriswyl, Broker Associate, Customer Service Realty

“Memphis and the Mid-South are poised for a fantastic investment environment in 2012. While Memphis, like much of the country, will continue to struggle with above normal unemployment, the number of job openings continues to rise and will only grow in 2012 as both Electrolux and Mitsubishi begin building facilities in Memphis, and Kruger paper company doubles its current workload. Nucor Steel and the Great Milwaukee Brewing Company continue to expand. With local government, business and civic leaders working so hard to position Memphis as a 1st Choice city, 2012 is positioned to be a very healthy and vibrant year for real estate investors.”

Chris Clothier, Vice President, MemphisInvest.com

“This is the best time I can remember for buying an investment property. It is the perfect blend of low prices and low interest rates. You can buy homes for 1996 prices with 2011 rents. That spells serious cash flow. The dummy way to financial freedom is letting your tenants pay off your houses and have free and clear houses. Don’t buy expecting appreciation- unless it’s forced appreciation created by improving the property. Buy for cash flow. It will take a long time for prices to recover. However the housing market will improve quicker if the banks would be more accommodating. I encourage people to look beyond the negative press and to see that opportunities abound. It’s always wise to buy when others are selling- just as you should have been selling (in 2006) when everyone else was buying.”

Phyllis Rockower

Let Stuart Baeriswyl be your all-purpose Real Estate Broker.

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Chris Clothier, Michelle Clothier, Caroline Hegarty, Tim Manke, Janet Thrasher, Geraldine Barry, Larry Panka, Lisa Moren Bromma, Martha Speed, Eddie Speed.

Seated: Lamarr Baxter, Annika Lewis, Natalie Knowlton, Shauna Pinneo, Greg Pinneo, Meghan Ben. Standing: Jeff Hare, Susan Hare, Belle Li, Geraldine Barry

Congratulations to the Norris group for another wonderful event ...and thank you to the large contingent from SJREI for joining us!Find more photos at SJREI.org/I_Survived_2011

�0 REI VOICE Dec. - Jan. 2012

ADvICE

INvESTING IN 2012: ONE PROPERTY AT A TIME

by bruce Norris

Looking back at 2011, there were a few surprises. The real estate industry learned what robo-signing meant and what a company named MERS does. The combination of the robo-signing scandal and the confusion about the validity of lenders’ paperwork stalled the foreclosure process to a crawl.

In California, the foreclo-sure process is supposed to be among the fastest and easiest to process. Someone fails to make a payment, the lender records a notice of default and three months plus twenty-one days later the trustee sale is held. Smooth and simple. In 2011, that process has been extended just a tad — to around six hun-dred days. The lenders, instead of foreclosing, had their atten-tion diverted to cleaning up their internal foreclosure pro-cesses. What that did was buy time for the delinquent owner and skew what should have oc-curred in 2011.

Somehow, our Southern California investors managed to buy hundreds of wholesale deals despite the scarcity of in-ventory. The deals they found were probably 75% lender-owned, 20% short-sale and the remaining 5% split between trustee sale refinances and buying directly from private owners.

At the recent I Survived Real Estate event, one of the things that became obvious is that our entire industry is under attack. Compounding that stress is our

worry about the industry’s fu-ture. Investors are concerned about the lack of financing for rental properties and we are having a difficult time getting a property appraised fairly after we do the needed repairs. The retail agents represented by the National Association of Real-tors are concerned about the restriction of inventory. What is the best plan of action for them to make a living? Should they concentrate on REOs or short sales? The appraisal industry wants to return to being paid a full fee for their work and the mortgage industry wants a little loosening of the lending policies which threaten nearly every escrow prior to finally getting a “yes” answer.

What should an investor do

in 2012? Play it safe, but don’t hesitate to participate. My pref-erence is to deal in a price range that allows me multiple options should a property not sell. I would stay away from the high-end properties, as financing will be more difficult to obtain and appraisals in that range will soon — and for the first time — have to take into account comps from foreclosures and short sales.

A 2012 investor may decide this is the year to increase or create a pool of rentals. If you are just beginning, start slowly and resolve one property at a time before committing to multiple properties at once. Buy in safe and desirable ar-eas with good school districts. My preference is to repair the

properties to a higher standard than expected. The prospec-tive renter will be very pleased, so you’ll get a lot of interested people simultaneously. That should allow you to get top dol-lar and you’ll find tenants that stay longer and treat the prop-erty better.

If you are buying and im-mediately reselling, the mar-gins are pretty tight. Make sure you know your area and are laser-sharp in the two most important skills: appraising the property correctly and estimat-ing the repairs accurately. You’ll still find most of the deals come straight out of the MLS.

Contact Bruce Norris at 95�-780-5856 or [email protected]

Bruce Norris, founder of The Norris Group, is an active investor, hard money lender, and real estate educator with over �9 years experience. Mr. Norris has been involved in over �,000 real estate transactions as a buyer, seller, builder and money partner.

Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE ��

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Nancy ChillagLegal Entities

Jeb HenleyInvestment Types

Lori GreymontFunding Sources

Richard SmithTax Issues

Vernon WilliamsInsurance

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by Lori GreymoNt

What does the future hold for real estate? There are some facts that can help us to predict what might happen. According to Re-altyTrac, there are an estimated 1 million foreclosure related notices for defaults, auctions and home repossessions that should have been filed this year that have been pushed out to 2012.

There is an election coming up, so we can predict that since fore-closure is not socially acceptable, politics will continue to push this problem down the road.

Banks are still not lending to owner occupants or to inves-tors. Few new homes are being built due to the fact that existing homes are selling for less than they cost to build and due to the lack of funding. Many cities are now moving to demolish troubled vacant homes.

So, while it may appear there are many vacant homes, a shortage is being created. While the media tells us that jobs are being created, they are not being created fast enough to create a robust recovery. Truth be told, until the banks start lending in all arenas (personal credit, busi-ness credit, and home mortgages) significant and sustainable recov-ery will be delayed. My prediction is we won’t see much change until 2014-2015.

The good news for real estate investors is that people losing their homes in foreclosure still need and want someplace to live. And they can afford to pay rent. While the media may want us to believe that foreclosures are happening because people are not able to afford house payments (due to subprime adjust-ing rate, loss of jobs, etc.) the truth

is that many people are making the decision to walk away because they are “underwater.” This fact was re-ported by the Federal Reserve in their study in May of 2010.

Because of uncertainty and fear, many real estate investors are sit-ting on the sideline waiting to see the end of the decline and then plan to jump in when the market recovers. I personally think this is dangerous. The only way you know a market has hit bottom is when values start to increase. This strategy means that you are buy-ing as prices are going up. If the upswing is short-lived, you lose equity. If you wait too long, you lose out on bargain prices. How-ever, if you change your mind set from equity-gain to cash-flow, price remains important, but not as im-

portant as getting a good property that stays rented for the highest rent possible.

You can buy for cash flow by working with specialists in turn-key properties or do everything yourself. Turnkey purveyors know how to find quality properties in key neighbors that when properly rehabbed create desirable rentals. There is a science and art to this. You can do this too if you have the time, education and skill to pull all the key players together.

Before you buy any property for cash flow, pick a geographic market that has a strong eco-nomic base. Yes, there are still areas of the country with a stable or growing job-base. Another key component is to buy in a market that has pro-landlord laws. Don’t

underestimate the cost of time some areas require to evict delin-quent tenants.

At a minimum, buy properties that will return 1-2% of monthly rent to purchase price. For example, pay no more than $80,000 for a property that achieves $800/month in rent. Of course, consider the cur-rent value of the home and pay less if it is worth less.

Whether you buy turnkey prop-erties or purchase, rehab, and rent properties on your own, make a plan to execute and take action. Without action, your goal could quickly become a missed oppor-tunity.

Contact Lori Greymont at 888-�98-065� or [email protected]

ADvICE

2012 Real Estate Shaky for Everyone Except Smart Investors

Lori Greymont is CEO of

Summit Assets Group. She

offers educa-tional presen-

tations around the u.S., trains

and mentors people new to purchas-

ing distressed assets and

coaches on creative

financing tech-niques. Her

company sells single Turnkey

Cash Flow Investment

properties, Fix and Flip prop-

erties, and Bulk lists.

Dec. - Jan. 2012 REI VOICE �5

by tom WiLsoN

Do you plan your business, or does your business plan you? Day to day tasks can push you further and further away from achieving your goals without a solid business plan to keep you focused in the right direction.

A business plan’s value is primarily in the process of creating it — in the thought processes it takes to really un-derstand your business and where it needs to go — not in the end plan. A written plan doesn’t have to be long to have value. Let’s step through the elements that will result in a thorough plan to get your business off to the right start or move your current business to greater success.

The Big Picture: Mission and Vision Statements. State your product or service, market, size, location and business approach. What will your company look like in three years? This is your elevator pitch to state what and who you are.

Products and Services. Define your product or service in detail. What are the features and benefits that will make it unique from your competition? What are your price targets? How much volume and growth are you planning?

Market Analysis. What are the characteristics of your market sector? What is your specific target market and de-mographics? Who are your competitors and what are the pros and cons of their products and business?

Marketing. Describe how you will brand and advertise your business. What will be your marketing and sales chan-nels? What incentives will you give to your customers and partners? Clearly define your business model monetiza-tion.

Strategy. State what the strengths and weaknesses are of your products and/or services and of your company. De-scribe the business opportunity that you will capitalize on and your market positioning. Define your biggest threats and how you will defend against them. What and when will be your business exit options?

Operations. Give the details for your organization struc-ture: legal entity, key personnel, partners, equipment and facilities. Tell how you will manage the production and processing of the business. Write down a timeline with the human and material resources needed to execute your start up and growth.

Financials. State your precise sales, profit and cash flow objectives over time. Define your financing and capital requirements and what your metrics will be, that is, your accounting methods and tools, and your measurements of performance. And lastly, create financial scenarios for the best case and worst case, as well as target plan. Now is the time to prepare for variations from the goal, not when you are emotionally in the hot seat.

BASICS

Planning Your Business for Your Best New Year

TOM’S TOP TEN TIPS

�. Write your business plan for a lay person, not a specialist in your indus-try. Keep it simple. Never outsource your business plan.

�. Create a Board of Directors. It doesn’t have to be formal. utilize mentors, peers, and friends.

�. Secure employees, partners, and resources with direct experience in your area of business, even if they have had failures.

�. use focus groups to test ideas (get some friends together for a focus party).

5.More businesses fail for nega-tive cash flow than for lack of profit. Manage cash flow and capital very carefully.

6. Most financial goals take twice as long and twice as much capital as forecasted. Plan for the potential.

7. Passion, persistence and hard work = over half of success.

8. Be Persistent: Many successful com-panies took a long time to get financ-ing and partners to believe in them.

9. Talk to your Competition! you’d be amazed at what ego will prompt your competitors to tell you. Start off with a compliment and share something about your business. Sharing infor-mation is usually a win-win situation.

�0. Keep honing your business. you don’t have to do it all —network, use mastermind groups, and delegate.

Contact Tom Wilson at �08-867-�867 or [email protected]

Tom Wilson is a thirty five

year real estate veteran who

has executed over $�00M

and �,700 units of real estate investments.

After thirty years of man-aging some of

Silicon Valley’s pioneering technology

companies, Mr. Wilson put his

business and management

experience toward fulltime investing. One of his compa-

nies, Wilson Investment Properties, offers high

quality, high-cash flow, fully rehabbed and

leased proper-ties to other

investors.


by scott sambucci

What if everything you thought about housing affordability was wrong?

Traditional housing afford-ability indices by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the U.S. Census, and the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) calculate “affordabil-ity” as a measure of home prices relative to median income. For example, NAR’s calculations are “Based on a 25% qualifying ratio for monthly housing expense to gross monthly income with a 20% down payment.” Of the 225 met-ros ranked by NAHB, Carson City ranks 6th nationally. Phoenix is 51st and Las Vegas is 59th, while Washington DC is 176th, the San Francisco-Bay Area is 224th, and New York is 225th.

And all of these measures are flat wrong.

“Capita per Inventory” - a calculation of how many people (capita) there are for each avail-able home for sale (inventory) – is a truer supply and demand mea-sure, determining the amount of demand relative to available housing supply.

Here in the San Francisco bay area, we hear it all the time: “How can anyone afford a house in Palo Alto with a median price easily over $1,500,000?” Except that it is not anyone who has to be able to afford a house in Palo Alto, but fewer than 60 households because that’s how many homes are for sale right now in Palo Alto. As long there are enough people with incomes able to support a million dollar home in Palo Alto, it very quickly becomes “affordable.” With Apple, Facebook, Zynga,

and the rest of the booming Sili-con Valley tech companies, there are plenty of available buyers out there at these prices.

Examining five Bay Area cities for the week ending 11/11/11, the “Capita per Inventory” numbers are startling, and explain every-thing about home prices in these markets.

��/��/�0�� median Price Capita per inventory

Palo Alto $1,745,395 1,512

davis $468,100 653

san Jose $497,369 460

stockton $132,282 290

sacramento $143,894 274

Moreover, the home price data set since January 2007 reveals an 87% correlation on “Capita per Inventory” to home prices — as “Capita per Inventory” changes, so do home prices. The fewer the

number of people per available home for sale, the lower the local market’s price becomes.

Stockton and Sacramento, where available housing inven-tory is relatively high, require significant in-migration or local demand (thousands of people) to clear the local market’s inventory, while more desirous towns like Palo Alto and Davis need about a hundred people to snap up the available inventory. Think Stock-ton and Sacramento measure poorly? Capita per Inventory in Carson City is 205, while Las Vegas measures at 106.

This concept applies more broadly to metros and regions. The Bay Area, Washington DC, and New York, while they have their own local market variances, are considered more expensive and thus “unaffordable” by tra-ditional methods. However, their

Capita per Inventory measures relatively high compared to lower-priced markets like Phoenix and Las Vegas, considered by traditional measures to be “more affordable.”

Finally, Capita per Inventory has implications for municipali-ties and city planning policies. Zoning restrictions, school dis-tricts, and tax laws, if implement-ed effectively, can directly support home prices by restricting hous-ing supply and increasing the de-mand to live in their towns.

Inflation-adjusted median in-comes are flat to down since the recession, and the pundits talk in circular arguments — housing won’t recover until we solve unem-ployment, but we can’t solve unem-ployment until we solve housing. That’s true in a national sense, but for the savvy investor crunching the right numbers, there are plenty of opportunities to find local markets where demand will always be rela-tively strong.

So when you’re at dinner and you hear, “Palo Alto is so expen-sive, but it’s a great time to buy in Sacramento - houses are cheap! I should buy two or three and rent them out!,” take five minutes and explain Capita per Inventory. Their nest egg will thank you for it.

(Note: Altos Research is a mar-ket analytics firm and does not provide investment advisory ser-vices. This article should not be construed as specific investment advice to buy or sell properties. Consult your local real estate pro-fessional before making any real estate investment decisions.)

Contact Scott Sambucci at www.altosresearch.com

FEATURE

Forget Affordability, Consider Capita per Inventory

Scott Sambucci is the Chief Operating

Officer with Altos Research. He works daily

with capital markets and fixed income

clients to develop pre-

dictive models and applica-

tions using real-time hous-

ing market analytics and

leading indica-tors. He’s writ-ten numerous white papers on the topics of residential

housing valua-tion and market trends. He also

serves as an adjunct profes-sor in the areas

of Finance, Economics, and

International Business.


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Our SJREI Member of the year for 2011 is Don Smallie.

Like many real estate inves-tors, Don Smallie enjoyed the success of a rising market (at one point accumulating a net worth of $6,000,000) only to hit rock bottom when the market crashed. Unlike most investors, he is willing to admit that he lost money in real estate and readily shares how he made his way back from the brink of bankruptcy. It all started with a pair of running shoes and a hand-ful of flyers.

In 1975 Don graduated Chiro-practic College; he received his California license the following year. Over the next three decades, Don grew his business in Stockton, California, to six Chiropractic of-fices with a total of 20 employees, and a health food store. Mean-while, Don began investing in real estate. He purchased his first home in 1978 and began buying a few houses a year. Some were fix-and-flips and some were low-priced homes that he rehabbed and rented out. By 2008 he owned 48 units in Stockton.

In 1990 Don started investing in houses and apartments in Okla-homa, eventually accumulating over 200 doors. Rehabbing long distance proved to be disastrous. It was difficult to control the costs or the results. However, Don con-tinued to do well in California until the market changed. Almost over-night, his net worth plummeted and he found himself $1,500,000 in debt.

That’s when he put on his run-ning shoes. In order to generate income Don hand delivered 75,000 flyers looking for construction

jobs. As a long distance runner, it seemed the sensible thing to do. For every 1,000 flyers Don dis-tributed, he received two leads. He closed 50% of those leads and earned his way back to profit-ability.

His partner, Catalino Alvarez, worked without being paid for six months because he believed in Don and his ability to bounce back.

Don said, “I couldn’t have done it without him. We have been a team for 12 years, but he had every reason to bail three years ago.”

Don scaled back his chiroprac-tic practice to 20 hours per week and now operates two chiroprac-tic offices. He continues to focus on renovations and buys houses at courthouse steps (foreclosures) daily.

“I cannot afford to make any mistakes, so that is what drives me now,” Don said.

When Don developed his con-struction business, it was to fill his own needs. It has grown to include rehabs for other investors who ap-preciate the quality and speed of his work. He has several full time construction employees and is currently working on 18 flips with partners.

Don also became a licensed re-altor and lists most of his houses, a smart move given the volume of houses he turns. In the last two years, Don has purchased at least 60 houses at auction.

Three years after the market crash, and several pairs of run-ning shoes later, Don has returned from the brink of bankruptcy and is on track to pay off his remaining debt by January 1, 2012. We salute Don Smallie’s tenacity, his honor to commitments, and his dedica-tion to education. Congratulations Don!

SJREI MEMbER of ThE YEaR

FEATURE


by aaroN Norris

Even the biggest nerds on the block need rejuvenation and inspi-ration every so often. Flash to Los Angeles Convention Center in early November for this year’s Blog World Expo. I originally had no plans to go, but a friend was appearing on one of the panels, so I thought what the heck. Immediately I registered for the event, then booked a spa-cious condo via airbnb.com. (Never heard of it? It’s a must-see.)

Industry thought-leaders had a lot to say about the current state of their business, and I think you’ll enjoy a few of my personal take-aways over the next few issues of REI Voice.LOOK FOR GOOGLE+ TO CONTINuE TO IMPROVE

Google+ was by far the big-gest surprise of the weekend. I fully expected to hear speaker after speaker shred Google for their lack of integration across Google tools and complain about spotty partici-pation. I was sure Google+ would die the same ugly death Google Buzz and Wave did.

How wrong I was. Several speak-ers were very excited about Google+. In a nutshell: Twitter is on its way out, Facebook will be reserved for family and friends, and Google+ is the place for passionate professionals.

“Google+ is to Facebook what Macintosh is to Windows,” said Guy Kawasaki while on stage with author Chris Brogan during the BWELA opening.

Color me stunned. Kawasaki went on to talk about how he was all too happy to automate responses on Twitter and Facebook, but personally answered all posts in Google+. While Google+ offers some unique features, many of us find it hard to justify in-

vesting time and energy into something you aren’t sure will pay off. But Guy warned the audience that those who invested in G+ early would be rewarded — much like those who invested their time and ef-fort into Twitter.

The bottom line: don’t rule out Google+ just yet. At any time Google could change its algorithm and re-ward businesses and individuals that participate in its network. With Google and YouTube (Google owned) being the number one and two search engines on the net, that’s a big deal.ADVICE FOR �0��

Make sure to cross-promote through different channels. Some of your customers might love Face-book, but some want to work with you on Google+, LinkedIn, email, or Twitter. Play around and find the right mix for you and your busi-ness.

Think long term whenever you approach any social media tool. Don’t be distracted by people stacking up friends on Facebook or buying Twitter friends. Focus on relevance. If you aren’t relevant and your network doesn’t care what you do, you’re wasting your time at best, and could be alienat-ing potential clients. Search en-gines are smarter than you think and aren’t just looking at quantita-tive data — they’re examining the qualitative as well.

Finally, get off the computer and enjoy your family, friends and col-leagues without the distraction of the blinking red light on your Black-Berry, cell phone interruptions at lunch, the constant Facebook

updates and your incessant need to let everyone know what you’ve eaten on Twit-ter. These things can wait. At the end of the day, people and the re-lationships we build are what really matter.

To sign up for Google+, navi-gate to www.google.com/+ and follow the on screen instruc-tions. Be sure to add REI Voice Magazine to your circle.

Contact Aaron Norris at 95�-780-5856 or [email protected]

FEATURE

Blog World Expo 2011

Aaron Norris is Vice President

of the Norris Group where he is respon-

sible for business development

and production of TNG’s award

winning radio show, events, and educational semi-nars. Mr. Norris is also principal at Palisoul, Norris, + Conroy, a mar-keting and strat-egy team based

in Southern California and

hosts the market-ing and business

podcast, The Cocktail Party

Statement.


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ACCOUNTING

michael gray, CPA408-918-3162

[email protected]

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richard smith, enrolled Agent

408-446-5551

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BROkERAGE/AGENTS

Csr real estate servicestuart baeriswyl DRE License # 01807909

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bay Area Plannersdavid beck408-725-7135

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INSURANCE

brighton financial groupvernon Williams408-931-6582

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thrasher termite & Pest Control inc.Janet thrasher408-354-9944

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memphisinvest.comChris Clothier877-773-9998

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stonecrest investments llCsteve freeman408-557-0700

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888-298-0652

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the norris group

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true Wholesale housesJay hinrichs888-285-1900

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nick of time results teamnatalie Knowlton831-402-5107

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going beyond real estateles isralowKDOW 1220 AM

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Wise Women radiolisa moren-brommawww.blogtalkradio.com/

wisewomeninvestor

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100% Chiropracticdr. Josh ben408-340-5055

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INvESTOR RESOURCES

Fort Worth DallasFort Worth Dallas


by GeraLdiNe barry

Geraldine Barry is founder and president of SJREI Association the premier educational and networking association for real estate investors in the Bay area. under Geraldine’s leadership SJREI has grown from a half-dozen investors to a vibrant three chapter organization with over �00 investors attending monthly meetings. SJREI won the Award for Excellence from the National REIA (Real Estate Investors Association) in several categories in �0�0. As an avid investor herself, Geraldine has interviewed multiple real estate pros, many of whom have been guests of SJREI. In addition to leading SJREI, Geraldine is the frequent host of the radio program, Going Beyond Real Estate, a regular guest on the nationally broadcasted NTDTV, publisher of award winning publication REI Voice Magazine, and producer of the much acclaimed annual Bay Area Real Estate Expo. As a serial entrepreneur Geraldine is also a principal in Miles/Barry Contract Furniture serving corporations in the Silicon Valley. Additionally, she coaches business principals and CEO’s, guiding them in becoming more productive in less time in their leadership positions, helping them identify their core strengths, focusing on those to achieve their vision, and delegating effectively. Geraldine resides in Silicon Valley, and is the proud mother of Colin & Claire her two children.

Ger’s Top 5Get up and Make it happen for 2012!

1 If you don’t like things in your life you have the power to change them by simply changing yourself — things don’t change, but you can! Any little modification can make a difference — an introduction of something new, an exer-cise routine, a daily reading schedule, journaling, bonding with your family by creating new happy rituals.

2 How you present yourself to the world makes a difference, how you look, how you speak, how you interact with oth-ers, who you interact with, what you read, what you spend your time doing. What is your message to the world? “I am here, ready to take on a new challenge and I want to change the world in a positive way.” It is your choice.

3I have always been incredibly optimistic, occasionally I have lost sight of that optimism, but now as I grow and learn to navigate this game called life, I have come to embrace this gift that I have been blessed with every day. How do I do that? I start my day with a prayer of gratitude nam-ing the things that I am grateful for — my family, my warm cozy home, my friends, a hot cup of tea, a great book, quiet time to think, process and write, our wonderful, warm SJREI community. By appreciating these things, and so many other seemingly trivial things I am happier and more content. I realize that what I appreciate grows more secure, and becomes more defined in my life. Try gratitude — I think it will help you too.

4There are people who drag us down, naysayers if you will. Remove those people from your life. If they are your family mem-bers show them a new way to be by mirroring for them your great new attitude. My Dad shared with me (he ran a company and was surrounded by 6 daughters, 2 sons, and a wife) that sometimes he survived by “psychologically absenting himself” from nega-tive situations. How do you do that? Tune them out, get away from situations, people, and attitudes that don’t propel you forward. Remember to be gentle as you work on this and have patience with yourself, this is a process it does not happen overnight.

5Lastly, live in the moment. Whatever you are doing give it 100% of your attention — walking with your children, having cof-fee with a friend, working, hanging with your family — be present, enjoy that moment. Your family and friends will love you for this level of attention. Very few people can truly do this. Be wary of electronics, they can be thieves of our time, and our spir-it. The things that renew you are not material. They are love, companionship, friendship, family, community, giving back.

Be brave, do whatever it takes to accomplish new results. I want you to have your best year yet! Thank you for being a part of our SJREI community. We appreciate your trust in us.


Ger’s Top 5 At Brighton Financial our goal is to provide you with the best service and most suitable financial and insurance products to satisfy your needs. We don’t “sell” anything.

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Vernon M. Williams Broker/Agent

4675 Stevens CreekBlvd., Suite 245

Santa Clara, CA 95051 Ph. (408)931 - 6582 Fx. (408)564 - 5405

[email protected]

MILES/BARRY CONTRACT FURNITUREWorkplace solutions to fit your business

MILES/BARRY CONTRACT FURNITURE is a full service independent furniture dealership providing quality, cost-effective interiors for businessesof all sizes.We offer creative, flexible solutions tailored to individualspace requirements, budget and aesthetic concerns.MILES/BARRY CONTRACT FURNITURE’s experience in the industry brings you prompt, professional service for every aspect of your project. You will enjoy the care, accuracy and efficiency of working with just one contact.

PRODUCT SALES• Ergonomic Products• Workstations-New and Refurbished• Casegoods-Veneer & Laminate• Filing Systems• Conference Rooms• Lunch Rooms• Training Table

PROJECT SERVICES• Consultation and Project Phases• Design CAD Drawings• Installation• Reconfiguration• Affordable Pricing• Panel Cleaning• Leasing• Extensive Product Lines

Call Barbara Miles at 650-359-5611 [email protected]


We are real estate investors closing hundreds of transactions yearly with a nationwide client base. We offer long term wealth solutions with comprehensive services available, including licensed property management, structure, and rehab management. We also offer coaching, mentoring, and educational programs for our clients.

We have purchased over 1,000 properties since 2004 for our clients. We currently manage over 820 rental properties throughout the Memphis area for local and out-of-state-investors, of which 95% are single family homes. And we currently have a 95.07% occupancy rate.

· Immediate Equity

· Instant Positive Cash Flow

· Tax Advantages

· Income and Appreciation

· Completely Passive Investing

· Leverage-Equity Build Up

· Undervalued Properties

· Licensed Property Management Company

Call today! Chris Clothier, Co-Owner, MemphisInvest.com

rei voice magazine dec- jan 2012

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