Regional ScaleEcological Risk Assessment

ENSC 202Regional ERA

The Conceptual Model

Traditional vs Regional ERA

Ranks and Filters in RRERA Model

Weighting the likelihood of exposure

Ranking components of the conceptual model

Weighting the likelihood of impact

Exposure and Impact “Filters”

SRi1

Sources StressorsHabitats &Resources

AssessmentEndpoints & Indicators

Source score (SRij): What is the extent

(area, number, “importance”) of

source j in watershed i?

Stressor score:computed as

SSijk= SRij * ELjk * ELjk

Cumulative stressor score computed as

CSSik= Σj(SRij * Efjk * Efjk)

What specific characteristics

could be measured? What resources would

be needed?

Watershed (WSi)for i watersheds

Effect filter: The product of the Effect Link (ELjk) and

Effect Importance (ELjk) Matrices. How important is source j as a contributor

to stressor k?(None, Small, Moderate,

Large)

Impact filter: The product of the Impact Link (ILkm) and Impact

Importance (IIkm) Matrices. How important is stressor k as an

impact on habitat m?(Lg, Mod, Sm, None).

Individual habitat risk isIHRim = [Σk(CSSik*IFkm*IFkm)*HBim]

Habitat score (HBim): What is the extent

(area, number, “importance”) of

habitat m in watershed i?

Cumulative Stressors (CSSik)

SRi2

SRi3

SRi4

SRij

…

SSiJ1

SSi2

SSiJ3

SRiJ4

SRijK…

Effect LinkMatrix

SRjk x SSjk

EffectImportance

MatrixSRjk x SSjk

X

Effects Filter

Impact LinkMatrix

SSkm x HBkm

ImpactImportance

MatrixSSkm x HBkm

X

Impacts Filter HBi1

HBi2

HBi3

HBi4

HBim

…

AEP1

AEP2

AEP3

AEP4

AEPm

…

…

Lake Champlain Relative Ecological Risk Assessment Model

SourceStressor

ReceptorHabitat

EndpointIndicator

RS = S * H * SRw RS = H * E * REw

SourceSRij

for j sources

HabitatHBim

for m habitats

EndpointNarrative only

StressorSSijk = SRij * EFjk

for k stressors

IndicatorNarrative only

Valdez Case Study

Our Revised Framework

Sub-watershed (Wi, for i sub-watersheds)

Sub-watershed

CWRi = Σm(IHRim)Cumulative sub-watershed risk

across all habitats for each of the i sub-watersheds

EFjk

CSSik= Σj(SRij * EFjk)Cumulative stressor

score, by sub-watershed, for all j sources

IFkm

CHRm = Σi(IHRim)Cumulative habitat risk, across sub-watersheds

for each of the m habitats

Comparison of Frameworks

IHRim = [Σk(CSSik*IFkm)*HBim]IHRim habitat risk, by sub-

watershed and habitat, for all k stressors

Things we can derive

See Sqaulicum Creek Case Study

Note: EFjk = ELij * EIij Note: IFkm = ILkm * IIkm

Lake Segments - Watersheds• Missiquoi Bay Missisquoi• St. Albans Bay Stevens/Rugg• Northeast Arm Northeast Arm• Mallets Bay Lamoille• Main Lake (VT) Winooski• Burlington Bay Burlington Bay• Shelburne Bay LaPlatte• Otter Creek Otter Creek• South Lake A Lake George• South Lake B

Poultney/Mettawee• Port Henry Port Henry• Main Lake (NY) Boquet/AuSable• Cumberland Bay Saranac• Isle La Motte Isle La Motte• Direct Watersheds Other Direct

Sources

• Agriculture• Urban• WWTPs• Dams• Roads• Fisheries• Marinas• Forested Areas• Industrial • Parks• External

Stressor list (composite)This list needs was simplified to a consistent set of agreed classes

Phosphorous (all types)· Soluble Reactive P (SRP)· Particulate P

Pathogens· Fish pathogens: VHS· Human pathogens: E. coli

Toxic Substances· pesticides· herbicides· heavy metals· hydrocarbons· dioxin & like compounds· phthalates

Recreation (distributed)Land use· Terrestrial· Aquatic· RiparianVehicle use· Terrestrial· Aquatic

Invasive Species· Zebra mussel· Purple loosetrife· Water Chestnut· Eurasian water milfoil· Rusty crayfish· White perch

Barriers to Movement of Aquatic Organisms· Dams· Roads· Culverts

Fragmentation of Landscape

HabitatsThis list was simplified to a consistent set of agreed classes

• Open water– Lake Champlain

• <6’• >6’

– Lakes/Ponds other than Lake Champlain

– Rivers and Streams

• Developed (all types)– Open space– Low intensity– Medium intensity– High intensity– Barren land (rock/sand/clay)…

aka mines pits and such

• Forest (all types)– Deciduous– Coniferous– Mixed

• Herbaceous (all types)– Shrub– Grassland

• Agriculture (all types)– Pasture/hay– Cultivated crops

• Wetlands (all types)– Woody wetlands– Emergent herbaceous wetlands

Key Input Matrices – A Glossary• Watershed x Source Matrix

– What types of sources exist in each watershed and how large are they? [Extent]• Effects Links Matrix

– Does a link exist between a Source and Stressor? [Existence]• Effects Importance Matrix

– Is the Source a particularly potent Stressor? [Intensity]• Effects Filter = Effects Links x Effects Importance• Impact Links Matrix

– Does a link exist between a Stressor and a Habitat? [Existence]• Impacts Importance Matrix

– Is the Stressor a particularly potent Impact? [Intensity]• Impacts Filter = Effects Links x Effects Importance• Watersheds x Habitats Matrix

– What types of habitats exist in each watershed and how large are they? [Extent]

BLUE matrices are inputsORANGE matrices are calculated

Values of the Matrices

• Source and Habitat Matrices– None (0), Some (2), Common (4), Abundant (6)

• Link Matrices (Effects and Impacts)– No link (0), Possible link (0.5), Clear link (1)

• Importance Matrices (Effects and Impacts)– None (0), Weak (0.5), Moderate (1), Strong (2)– Should we add an apocalyptic 4?

Focus: Sources Team(Note: Explicitly sub-watershed based)

• What is the area/number/size of each source type in each sub-watershed?

• What is the rationale of scoring the “quantity” of each source (i.e., the source area, number, or size)

• What specific stressors are most important from each source? (Links directly to Stressors Team)

• Consider resources in Troy et al. (2007)• Products

– Watersheds x Sources matrix (The Source Matrix)– Sources x Stressors matrix (The Effects Link/Importance)

Focus: Stressor Teams(Note: Not explicitly sub-watershed based)

• Why is your stressor important? Why is it a focus of concern? How does it act?

• For your stressor, what sources are most important? (Links directly to Sources Team but not watershed by watershed)

• What are the most pragmatic classes to use for your Stressor?• What specific habitat types are most likely to be affected by each

stressor class? (Links directly to Habitat Team but not watershed by watershed)

• Consider information in Opportunities of Action.• Products

– Sources > Stressors matrix (The Effects Filter for your stressor)– Stressors > Habitats matrix (The Impacts Filter for your stressor)

Focus: Habitat Team(Note: Explicitly sub-watershed based)

• What is the area/number/size of each habitat type in each sub-watershed?

• Are there pragmatic classes of habitats that make sense to group together?

• What are the key threats (Stressors, ignoring Sources) to your primary Habitat types/classes? (Links directly to Stressor Teams)

• What specific indicators would be most useful to monitor the general habitats? (Note suggestions from Watzin et al. 2005)

• Products– Watersheds > Habitats (The Habitats Matrix)– Suggestions for key Assessment Endpoints for each Habitat

The Sources Matrix(Sources Team)

SR1 SR2 SR3 …

W1 Rank11 Rank12 Rank13

W2 Rank21 Rank22 Rank23

W3 Rank31 Rank32 Rank33

…

Sources (for j different sources)

Wat

ersh

ed(fo

r I d

iffer

ent w

ater

shed

s

BLUE matrices are inputsORANGE matrices are calculated

The Effects Filter Matrices(Sources & Stressor Teams)

SR1 SR2 SR3 …

Stressor1Link11 Link12 Link13

Stressor2Link21 Link22 Link23

Stressor3Link21 Link22 Link23

…

Sources (for j different sources)

Stre

ssor

s(F

or k

diff

eren

t Str

esso

rs) SR1 SR2 SR3 …

Stressor1Impt11 Impt12 Impt13

Stressor2Impt21 Impt22 Impt23

Stressor3Impt21 Impt22 Impt23

…

Sources (for j different sources)

Stre

ssor

s(F

or k

diff

eren

t Str

esso

rs)

X

SR1 SR2 SR3 …

Stressor1EF 11 EF 12 EF 13

Stressor2EF 21 EF 22 EF 23

Stressor3EF 21 EF 22 EF 23

…

Sources (for j different sources)

Stre

ssor

s(F

or k

diff

eren

t Str

esso

rs)

=

Effects Link Matrix Effects Importance Matrix

Effects Matrix

The Impacts Filter Matrices(Stressor and Habitat Teams)

HAB1 HAB2 HAB3 …

ΣStressor1 Link11 Link12 Link13

ΣStressor2 Link21 Link22 Link23

ΣStressor3 Link21 Link22 Link23

…

Habitats (for m different habitats)

Sum

of S

tres

sors

ove

r Sou

rces

(For

k d

iffer

ent S

tres

sors

) HAB1 HAB2 HAB3 …

ΣStressor1 Impt11 Impt12 Impt13

ΣStressor2 Impt21 Impt22 Impt23

ΣStressor3 Impt21 Impt22 Impt23

…

Habitats (for m different habitats)

X

SR1 SR2 SR3 …

ΣStressor1 IF 11 IF 12 IF 13

ΣStressor2 IF 21 IF 22 IF 23

ΣStressor3 IF 21 IF 22 IF 23

…

Habitats (for m different habitats)

=

Impacts Link Matrix Impacts Importance Matrix

Impacts Matrix

Sum

of S

tres

sors

ove

r Sou

rces

(For

k d

iffer

ent S

tres

sors

)

Sum

of S

tres

sors

ove

r Sou

rces

(For

k d

iffer

ent S

tres

sors

)

The Habitat/Resource Matrix(Habitats Team)

HAB1 HAB2 HAB3 …

W1 Rank11 Rank12 Rank13

W2 Rank21 Rank22 Rank23

W3 Rank31 Rank32 Rank33

…

Sources (for m different habitats)

Wat

ersh

ed(fo

r I d

iffer

ent w

ater

shed

s

Summary Risk Matrices

SR1 SR2 SR3 …

WS1 RSK11 RSK12 RSL13

WS2 RSK21 RSK22 RSK23

WS3 RSK21 RSK22 RSK23

…

Stressors (for k different stressors)

Wat

ersh

eds

(For

i di

ffere

nt w

ater

shed

s)

Effects of all Sources of each Stressor by Watershed

SR1 SR2 SR3 …

WS1 RSK11 RSK12 RSL13

WS2 RSK21 RSK22 RSK23

WS3 RSK21 RSK22 RSK23

…

Stressors (for k different stressors)

Wat

ersh

eds

(For

i di

ffere

nt w

ater

shed

s)

Impacts over all Habitats of each Stressor by Watershed

SO1 SO2 SO3 …

WS1 RSK11 RSK12 RSL13

WS2 RSK21 RSK22 RSK23

WS3 RSK21 RSK22 RSK23

…

Sources (for i different sources)

Wat

ersh

eds

(For

i di

ffere

nt w

ater

shed

s)

Effects of all Stressors from each Source by Watersheds

HAB1 HAB2 HAB3 …

WS1 RSK11 RSK12 RSL13

WS2 RSK21 RSK22 RSK23

WS3 RSK21 RSK22 RSK23

…

Habitats (for m different Habitats)

Wat

ersh

eds

(For

i di

ffere

nt w

ater

shed

s)

Impacts of all Stressors on each Habitat by Watersheds

Reiteration of our Framework

Note: In considering criteria ranking (or scoring), a “6” should be relative to conditions that prevail in the Lake Champlain Basin and not the “theoretical” worst case situation. For example, the Winooski watershed might rank a “6” in urban land use even though it is far less developed than, say, downtown Detroit or Baltimore. The key question is, to what stressors is Lake Champlain most susceptible?

SourceSRij

for j sources

HabitatHBim

for m habitats

EndpointNarrative only

StressorSSijk = SRij * EFjk

for k stressors

IndicatorNarrative only

Sub-watershed (Wi, for i sub-watersheds)

CWRi = Σm(IHRim)Cumulative sub-watershed risk

across all habitats for each of the i sub-watersheds

EFjk

CSSik= Σj(SRij * EFjk)Cumulative stressor

score, by sub-watershed, for all j sources

IFkm

CHRm = Σi(IHRim)Cumulative habitat risk, across sub-watersheds

for each of the m habitats

IHRim = [Σk(CSSik*IFkm)*HBim]IHRim habitat risk, by sub-

watershed and habitat, for all k stressors

Things we can derive

Note: EFjk = ELij * EIij Note: IFkm = ILkm * IIkm

Extra Slides

SRi1

Sources StressorsHabitats &Resources

AssessmentEndpoints & Indicators

Source score (SRij): What is the extent

(area, number, “importance”) of

source j in watershed i?

Stressor score:computed as

SSijk= SRij * ELjk * ELjk

Cumulative stressor score computed as

CSSik= Σj(SRij * Efjk * Efjk)

What specific characteristics

could be measured? What resources would

be needed?

Watershed (WSi)for i watersheds

Effect filter: The product of the Effect Link (ELjk) and

Effect Importance (ELjk) Matrices. How important is source j as a contributor

to stressor k?(None, Small, Moderate,

Large)

Impact filter: The product of the Impact Link (ILkm) and Impact

Importance (IIkm) Matrices. How important is stressor k as an

impact on habitat m?(Lg, Mod, Sm, None).

Individual habitat risk isIHRim = [Σk(CSSik*IFkm*IFkm)*HBim]

Habitat score (HBim): What is the extent

(area, number, “importance”) of

habitat m in watershed i?

Cumulative Stressors (CSSik)

SRi2

SRi3

SRi4

SRij

…

SSiJ1

SSi2

SSiJ3

SRiJ4

SRijK…

Effects FilterEFij

HBi1

HBi2

HBi3

HBi4

HBim

…

AEP1

AEP2

AEP3

AEP4

AEPm

…

…Impacts Filter

IFkm

ORIGINAL Framework - Discarded

Comparison of Original and Revised Frameworks

Source x (Effects Filter) = Stress

Σ(Stresses) x (Impact Filter) = Total Impact

Total Impact x Habitat = Risk

For Each Watershed

Original

Source x (Effects Link x Effects Importance) = Stress

Σ(Stresses) x (Impact Link x Impact Importance) = Total Impact

Total Impact x Habitat = Risk

Revised