regional modelling prepared by c. tubbs, p. davies, met office uk revised, delivered by p. chen, wmo...
TRANSCRIPT
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Regional Modelling
Prepared by C. Tubbs, P. Davies, Met Office UK Revised, delivered by P. Chen, WMO Secretariat
SWFDP-Eastern Africa Training Workshop Bujumbura, Burundi, 11-22 November 2013
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If the map does not show what you see …
Find out what is real.
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Modelling: expressing our knowledge of atmospheric physics
Vegetation Model
Short-wave radiation
CloudsConvectio
n
Pre
cipit
ati
on
Long-wave radiation
Surface Processes
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• Convergence• lake/sea breezes;• orography;• surface processes (soil moisture, vegetation, etc);• diurnal cycle,
• Most NWP Models may have difficulty predicting due to problems with initial conditions and convective parameterisation schemes.
• Our task will be to use NWP intelligently to predict:• Timing and location of convection initiation• Convective system evolution
Mesoscale Processes
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• Look for favourable synoptic and mesoscale patterns in NWP products;
• Look for favourable conditions (instability on ascents, indices) for convection formation;
• Be alert for any known model biases in positioning/timing errors of synoptic systems;
• Watch for predictions of unrealistic looking precipitation due to convective parameterisation limitations.
The Forecasting Process
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Lake/Sea Breezes
• These are thermally-forced circulations. Their forecasting requires knowledge of the:– local environment, i.e. the orography and orientation of the
coast;– prevailing synoptic-scale weather patterns.
• Generally favourable conditions– synoptic conditions that allow strong heating of land areas;– the synoptic-scale flow that is relatively weak;– generally clear conditions that promote daytime heating and
night time cooling of the land areas- a pronounced diurnal cycle in wind speed and direction.
• Forecast hint– Use model output to check low-level flow and flow aloft.
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Sea Breeze
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Temporal Resolution
Hail shaft
Thunderstorm
Front
Tropical Cyclone
Space Scale
Lifetime
Predictability?
10mins 1 hr 12hrs 3 days
30mins 3 hrs 36hrs 9 days
1000km
100km
10km
1km
MCS
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OBSERVATIONS
HUMAN FORECASTER
PUBLIC
COMPUTER FORECASTS
Weather ForecastingUsing observational data
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Quality control- buddy checks- climatology- temporal consistency- background field
Interpolated ontothe model grid points
GP
GPGP
GP GP
GPGP
GP
GP
ship
ship
airep
synopsynop
synop
synop
synop
sonde sonde
SEA
LAND
Different types of data have different areas of influence
Using Observations
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• NWP cannot rely solely on observations to produce its initial conditions– Why?– There are too few – Point observations may not be representative
of a grid box
• A short period forecast from a previous run of the model fills the gaps– Model background field
Using Observations
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• Method used to blend real and model data
• Model is run for an assimilation period prior to the forecast
• Data is inserted into the run at or near their validity time to nudge the model towards reality
Data Assimilation
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4DVar - GM
T-3
T+ 0
(DT)
T+ 3
T+144
X
X
X
X
X
ForecastAnalysis
Background
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Strengths of 4DVar
• Able to take advantage of non-standard ob types e.g. satellites
• Stability within model physics and ultimately, the forecast
• Better representation of small-scale, extreme features
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Questions & Answers