WMO

WMO; WDS

SWFDP – Southeast Asia and Bay of BengalRegional Training Workshop on Severe Weather Forecasting and

Warning ServicesMacao, China, 8 – 19 April 2013

WMO GDPFS Programme – SWFDP

Alice Soares

WMO Secretariat, DPFS Division, WDS (asoares@wmo.int)

Outline

Operational weather forecasting - the WMO’s World Weather Watch (WWW) and its Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS)

SWFDP concepts

SWFDP regional subprojects

SWFDP – Southeast Asia

SWFDP – Bay of Bengal

The World Weather Watch System –An operational infrastructure

The World Weather Watch System combines: • observing systems (WIGOS), • Telecommunication, data and information

exchange facilities (WIS), and • data-processing and forecasting system (GDPFS)

Operated by Members, coordinated through the WMO Secretariat

To make available meteorological and related geophysical information needed by Members for providing efficient services

The Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) of the WWW

Makes available to WMO Members weather and climate analyses, forecasts and predictions to enable them to provide … high-quality predictions and forecasts, warning and information services ….

• Outputs of the NWP Systems technology, including for environmental emergency response

• GDPFS supports many WMO programmes and relevant programmes of other International Organizations, e.g. ICAO, IAEA, etc.

(see: “Manual on the GDPFS”- WMO-No. 485)

World Weather Watch – S&T into operational services

<= Integrated Observing System (WIGOS)

<= Global Telecom & Data Management (WIS)

<= Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS)

<= National Meteorological Services providing services to public and users (PWS)

GDPFS Centres

+ National Meteorological Centres

Weather Forecasting

Daily forecasts and weather information are available on:

Open Internet Private enterprises Academic institutionsWeather as news (e.g. focus on disasters)

WMO Operational weather forecasting WMO’s GDPFS CentresNumerous advanced NWP Centres Authoritative, reliable and quality assured sources of information (objective verification), sustainable

GDPFS Centres

• GDPFS Centres are NMCs at NMHSs

• 24/7/365 operationally supported infrastructure (e.g. at NMCs, RSMCs, GPCs)

• Highly automated and robust production with backup, and recovery system

• Meteorological expertise

• Regional structure (e.g. multi-national and regional centres) for collaboration, harmonization, operational advantage

The Challenge: mitigating the growing technological gap in weather forecasting

Dramatic developments in weather forecasting science over the past two decades – advances in monitoring and NWP and Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS)

leading to improved alerting of weather hazards, at increased lead-times of warnings

Most of NMHSs saw little progress due to limited budgets, etc.

increasing gap in application of advanced technology (NWP, EPS) in early warnings

Attempting to close this gap by increasing availability, and developing capacity to use existing NWP and EPS

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Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”

(World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011)

Implemented through the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) “Implementation of a “Cascading Forecasting Process”, an approach that provides improved access to, and effective use by forecasters of existing and newly developed NWP/EPS products made available by advanced GDPFS Centres, national forecasting and warning services have improved significantly, with increased lead-times and greater reliability.”

(World Meteorological Congress, 2011)

WMO

Improve Severe Weather Forecasting through the “Cascading Forecasting Process” (Global to Regional to National)

Improve lead-time of Warnings

Improve interaction of NMHSs with users

Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems

Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational centres through feedback

SWFDP Main Goals

SWFDP Development and Implementation: a 4-step cycle

Establish regional partnerships Regional management teams; focus on forecasting and warning services of meteorological-related hazards

Plan and develop of prototype demonstration project

Regional project-specific IP for which the management team is accountable. IP describes team members’ responsibilities, project activities and milestones (typically for 12-18 months)

Implement demonstration project Tracking, continuously evaluation, training and reporting

Broaden and sustain successful prototypes (return to step 1)

Under the Guidance of the Steering Group of the SWFDP

Global NWP centres to provide available NWP/EPS and sat-based products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;

Regional centres to interpret information received from global centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;

NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with user communities, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project;

NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services.

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Global Centres

User communities,

including Disaster

Management authorities

NMCsRSMC Pretoria

SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process

Vision for the SWFDP as an end-to-end, cross-programme collaborative activity (led by the GDPFS) “that engages all WMO programmes that concern the real-time prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards, through their respective technical commissions: from observations, to information exchange, to delivery of services to the public and a range of targeted applications/user sectors, education and training, capacity development and support to LDCs, and to the transfer of relevant promising research outputs into operations.”

(World Meteorological Congress, 2011)

WMO Strategic Priorities Service Delivery and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Capacity Development GFCS - Climate change adaptation, in support of the 4

pillars: Health, Water, Food Security, and DRR

WMO

Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC-TC La Réunion)

Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC-TC Fiji)

Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar)

Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries; RFSC Hanoi)

Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries; RSMC-TC New Delhi)

WMO global and regional operational centres (e.g. RSMCs) 42 NMHSs of developing countries (29 of which are LDCs/SIDSs) Several WMO programmes (i.e. GDPFS, PWS, TCP, DRR, MMO, AgM, SP, ETR,

CD, LDC, RP, and WWRP) and technical commissions (i.e. CBS, CAgM, CHy, JCOMM, and CAS)

SWFDP Regional Projects

SWFDP: a cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards

Reg

ion

al C

entr

e (R

SM

Cs

, R

FS

C,

RC

Cs

)

Glo

bal

Cen

tres

RS

MC

s-T

C

Global NWP/EPS andSat-based products

TCP

LAM & Guidance Products (risk/probability)

GDPFS

Nat

ion

al M

et C

entr

es(F

ore

ca

st/

Wa

rnin

g B

ull

eti

ns

)

PWS

Ge

ne

ral

Pu

bli

c,

me

dia

, d

isa

ste

r m

an

ag

em

en

t a

uth

ori

tie

s

Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR)

Feedback and Verification

PWS, HWR, WCP

Ge

ne

ral

Pu

bli

c,

me

dia

, d

isa

ste

r m

an

ag

em

en

t a

uth

ori

tie

s

Sp

ec

ific

Us

er

Se

cto

rs (

Ag

ric

ult

ure

, M

ari

ne

, A

via

tio

n,

etc

.)AgM, MMO, AeM, etc.

Satellite Imagery

and Tools

SP

Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized

ApplicationsAgM, MMO,

AeM, WCP, etc.

WW

RP

Research Projects

Flash Flood Guidance

HWR

Reg

ion

al C

entr

e (R

SM

Cs

, R

FS

C,

RC

Cs

)

Observing and

information systems

WIG

OS

, WIS

SWFDP – Southeast AsiaWMO

SWFDP – Southeast Asia status/progress Project develop in progress (draft Implementation Plan available at:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS-Reports/documents/Report_SWFDP-SeA_IP_Sep2010.pdf)

Focus on strong winds and heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell)

Domain: 10°S, 40°N, 80°E and 140°E Global Centres: CMA, JMA and KMA (NWP guidance material, satellite products) Regional Centres: Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support), RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi (TC forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support) NMCs: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand, Viet Nam, Philippines,

Macao,China Start-up awaiting establishment of RFSC Ha Noi (2013)

SWFDP – Southeast Asia

Examples of products made available through the SWFDP – Southeast Asia

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SWFDP – Bay of Bengal Focus: Coastal communities and activities

• Bangladesh• India • Maldives• Myanmar• Sri Lanka • Thailand• Bhutan (later)• Nepal (later)• Afghanistan (later)• Pakistan (later)

Severe Weather from TCs,severe thunderstorms and monsoon: Heavy precipitation, Strong windsLarge waves / swell, Storm Surge

Improved severe weather forecasting (GDPFS), warning services to disaster management (PWS) and with agriculture (AgMet)

40E – 125 E 50 N – 10 S

SWFDP – Bay of Bengal RSMC New Delhi

SWFDP – Bay of Bengal

Portal

ECMWF products for WMO Members

SWFDP WebsitesSWFDP-Southeast Asia, RFSC Ha Noihttp://www.swfdp-sea.com.vn/index  ID: swfdp-seapw: RA2

SWFDP-Bay of Bengal, RSMC New Delhi http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cyclone.htm

ECMWF http://www.ecmwf.int  

JMA and RSMC Tokyo http://www.wis-jma.go.jp/swfdp/

CMA (SWFDP) http://eng.weather.gov.cn/swfdp/

KMA's SWFDP-SeA Webpage is now available at:  http://www.kma.go.kr/ema/nema03/swfdp/index.jsp

Future directions and role of the SWFDP

More countries, new regions (over 100 countries: developing and least developed countries) ~ 12 RSMCs

Hydro-meteorological hazards Sector-specific hazards (e.g.

agriculture, marine, etc.) Beyond day-5

Vehicle to collect and convey the evolving requirements for the Basic Systems, including to WIGOS and WIS, in the target countries

Vehicle for introducing promising R&D

Cross-programme guidance Regular budget and extrabudgetary

resourses

Project Office

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings

Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time)

Forecasting (GDPFS) and warning services (PWS)

High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, near-shore damaging waves, storm surges, etc.), and application areas (e.g. TCP, AgM, HWR, MMO, etc)

Forecast verification

Climate change adaptation

End Result of a SWFDP

The end result of SWFDP is to improve warnings, forecasts and delivering services to: Save lives Protect properties Help people make better decisions with

the help of science and technology

Serving communities of users!

PWS Component of SWFDP

Focus: Use the tools/skills/techniques of improved forecasting

Address: How to apply those tools to deliver warnings and forecast services to identified user groups

These two components together are indispensible to ensure SWFDP achieves its objectives

SWFDP – Project Framework CBS Steering Group for SWFDP

REFERENCE :

• SWFDP Overall Project Plan (rev. 2010)http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_OverallPP_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf

• SWFDP Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (rev. 2010)

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_Guidebook_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf

www.wmo.int

Thank you for your attention

DISCUSSION