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Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia

(RIMES)

Ramraj Narasimhan (RIMES) Edle Tenden (ESCAP)

Benefits of a Collective System

What is RIMES? v  RIMES stands for Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early

Warning System for Africa and Asia

v  Owned and managed by its Member States, for the generation and application of early warning information

v  Established on 30 April 2009. Registered with the United Nations under Article 102 on 1 July 2009.

v  13 countries have signed cooperation agreements: Bangladesh, Cambodia, Comoros, Lao PDR, India, Maldives, Mongolia, Mozambique, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Seychelles.

v  29 collaborating Member States in all

RIMES Member States

How did RIMES evolve?

v  2004 Indian Ocean tsunami - low-frequency, high-impact hazards

v  Individual Tsunami EWS - prohibitively costly for most countries

v  Collective system becomes economical due to the scale of operations

Ø USD 6 million establishment cost (ESCAP and DANIDA through ADPC)

Ø Operating cost USD 2.5 million yearly

v  Multi-hazard focus- More cost effective and sustainable

What does RIMES do? Provides early warning services for enhanced preparedness, response, and mitigation of natural hazards, according to differing needs and demands of its Member States

v  Facilitates establishment and maintenance of regional observation/ monitoring networks and ensure data availability for early warning

Regional monitoring networks Seismic stations

Son La, Vietnam Dalat,

Vietnam

Santa, Ilocos Sur, Philippines Sittwe,

Myanmar

Regional monitoring networks Sea level observation stations

Koh TaphaoNoi, Thailand (KOTA)

Subic, Philippines

(SUBI)

Vung Tao, Vietnam (VTAU)

Currimao, Philippines

(CURRI)

Qui Nhon, Vietnam (QUIN)

Lubang, Philippines

(LUBA)

What does RIMES do? Provides early warning services for enhanced preparedness, response, and mitigation of natural hazards, according to differing needs and demands of its Member States

v  Facilitates establishment and maintenance of regional observation/ monitoring networks and ensure data availability for early warning

v  Provides regional tsunami watch within the framework of UNESCO IOC

Tsunami bulletin (SL-1)

Text format Graphical format

PRECISE for tsunami forecast

Pre-computed tsunami database

Web portal system for the operation

Arrival Time Directivity maps

Coastal Impacts

Tsunami Threat

PRECISE : Forecasting Products

What does RIMES do? Provides early warning services for enhanced preparedness, response, and mitigation of natural hazards, according to differing needs and demands of its Member States

v  Facilitates establishment and maintenance of regional observation/ monitoring networks and ensure data availability for early warning

v  Provides regional tsunami watch within the framework of UNESCO IOC

v  Supports national meteorological and hydrological services for providing localized hydro-meteorological risk information within the framework of WMO

R&D  support  for  localized  severe  weather  informa8on  �  Track, intensity and time of land fall of Cyclones/ Typhoons

�  Heavy rainfall, Strong winds

�  Riverine and Flash floods

Countries  receiving  inputs  for  daily  weather  informa8on  from  RIMES    

•  Bangladesh  

•  Bhutan  

•  Cambodia  

•  Comoros  

•  Lao  PDR  

•  Maldives  

•  Mongolia  

•  Myanmar  

•  Nepal  

•  Philippines  

•  Seychelles  

•  Timor  Leste  

What does RIMES do? Provides early warning services for enhanced preparedness, response, and mitigation of natural hazards, according to differing needs and demands of its Member States

v Facilitates establishment and maintenance of regional observation/ monitoring networks and ensure data availability for early warning

v Provides regional tsunami watch within the framework of UNESCO IOC

v Supports national meteorological and hydrological services for providing localized hydro-meteorological risk information within the framework of WMO

v Supports warning response capacities at all levels (national to community) within each national early warning framework

RIMES social scientist and climate scientist interacting with the local community to ensure a sustainable forecast application for the community.

Focus group discussions with the Ekbulang community on the RIMES hazard risk information application

RIMES professionals engage national partners and builds capacity to interact both-ways for future sustainability

Economic  Benefits  of  EW  Bangladesh Sidr Cyclone case study

•  With additional investment for building capacity for translating, interpreting and communicating probabilistic forecast information, for every USD 1 invested, a return of USD 40.85 in benefits over a ten-year period

Economic  Benefits  of  EW  Bangladesh, 2007 Flood case study

•  Technology to provide this long-lead forecast information is already operational

•  For every USD 1 invested in EWS, there is a return of USD 558.87 in benefits, over a ten-year period

Plumes  and  probability  pies  for  the  first  Brahmaputra  flood  July  28-­‐August  6,  2007  

Model able to meet three fundamental information needs of communities at risk

2007  Brahmaputra  Ensemble  Forecasts  and    Danger  Level  Probabili8es  

7-10 day Ensemble Forecasts

7 day 8 day

9 day 10 day

Economic  Benefits  of  EW  Sri Lanka May 2003 floods case study

•  Cost-benefit analysis reveals that for every USD 1 invested, there is a return of only USD 0.93 in benefits, i.e., the costs outweighs the benefits, since the significantly damaging flooding is not very frequent.

•  A good rationale for a collective regional system, due to economies of scale

RIMES  Simula8on  of  Typhoon  PARMA  

Observed Track :20-28 Nov 2007

HAGIBIS MITAG

To  sum  up �  A regional system owned, managed and operated by

Member States- such as RIMES- could complement national systems, by optimizing distribution of observation systems, reducing capital investment requirements

�  RIMES, with an annual recurring cost of USD 2.5 million could enable Member States to accrue the benefits of early warning

� Collective savings for the system would be at least in the order of several tens of million US dollars each year.

To  know  more www.rimes.int - Subbiah Arjunapermal (subbiah@rimes.int) - Ramraj Narasimhan (ramraj@rimes.int) www.escap.org/disaster-preparedness-fund - Edle Tenden (tenden@un.org)