reducing the world’s carbon footprint - united …. srivastava - reducing...reducing the world’s...
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Reducing the WorldReducing the World’’s s Carbon FootprintCarbon FootprintAn Indian PerspectiveAn Indian Perspective
LeenaLeena SrivastavaSrivastava
How can India Contribute?How can India Contribute?
As an emerging economy experiencing As an emerging economy experiencing strong economic growth yet housing a strong economic growth yet housing a very large number of poor, India needs tovery large number of poor, India needs toFocus on building adaptive capacityFocus on building adaptive capacityIdentify and start implementing adaptation Identify and start implementing adaptation measuresmeasuresFollow low carbon development pathwaysFollow low carbon development pathways
Carbon IntensityCarbon Intensity
of economy is reducingof economy is reducing
CO2 Emissions Intensity
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031Year
(kgC
O2 /
$PP
P )
Planned anticipatory adaptation has the potential to reduce vulnerability and realize opportunities associated with climate change
Adaptation
Planned and anticipatory
Autonomous and reactive
Source: IPCC TAR
Adaptation - the process
Opportunities to enhance adaptive capacity linked to development aspects: e.g., irrigated vs. rainfed
Mixed farming in village Anghora
Rainfed farming in village Lakhakheri Umat
Source: TERI, 2003
Differential Capacities Differential Capacities -- AnantapurAnantapur
Sharp decline in water tables registered
Source: TERI, 2003
Normal water level
Normal water level
Normal water levelNormal water level
Bore well installation is comparatively costly, water resources are unequally distributed in favour of wealthy landowners at the expense of small and marginal farmers. Region mostly rainfed
Scope for Intervention: Scope for Intervention: OpportunitiesOpportunities
Revitalize cooperatives, credit institutionsRevitalize cooperatives, credit institutionsIntroduce shortIntroduce short--term loans with low interest rates for farmersterm loans with low interest rates for farmersStrengthen and empower local institutions (Strengthen and empower local institutions (SHGsSHGs), WUAs ), WUAs
Enrich technological base in Enrich technological base in agriagri--information and its disseminationinformation and its disseminationCreate opportunities for offCreate opportunities for off--farm farm employment by strengthening agriemployment by strengthening agri--processing units and cooperativesprocessing units and cooperativesBridge the gap for irrigation potential; Bridge the gap for irrigation potential; created and utilised created and utilised
IndexIndex--based weather risk insurance for based weather risk insurance for agriculture in India agriculture in India
Automatic adjustment triggered by climate Automatic adjustment triggered by climate information information Use of pilot approaches to iteratively refine Use of pilot approaches to iteratively refine program deliveryprogram deliveryDelivery through local organisations Delivery through local organisations ((SHGsSHGs) to build in two) to build in two--way communication way communication channelschannelsIntegrates concerns of the communities in Integrates concerns of the communities in policy making processpolicy making process
Scope for Intervention: opportunities Scope for Intervention: opportunities
Scope for Intervention: Opportunities Scope for Intervention: Opportunities
Watershed development Watershed development and management and management
Area development Area development through land and soil through land and soil conservation initiativesconservation initiatives
Activities relating to Activities relating to construction & restoration construction & restoration of tanksof tanks
Recharge of ground Recharge of ground water reservoirswater reservoirs
Adaptation Options Adaptation Options -- Coastal Areas Coastal Areas Prevent or phasePrevent or phase--out development in coastal areas out development in coastal areas vulnerable to erosion, inundation, and stormvulnerable to erosion, inundation, and storm--surge surge flooding.flooding.Use "hard" or "soft" structures to protect coasts.Use "hard" or "soft" structures to protect coasts.Implement storm warning systems & evacuation Implement storm warning systems & evacuation plans.plans.Protect and restore wetlands, estuaries, and Protect and restore wetlands, estuaries, and floodplains to preserve essential habitat for floodplains to preserve essential habitat for fisheries.fisheries.Modify and strengthen fisheries management Modify and strengthen fisheries management institutions & policies to promote conservation of institutions & policies to promote conservation of fisheries.fisheries.
Source: IPCC TAR
Adaptation Interventions Adaptation Interventions
Costs likely to be high Costs likely to be high Identify and prioritize adaptation options Identify and prioritize adaptation options
(e.g. heat(e.g. heat--resistant varieties, early warning systems, resistant varieties, early warning systems, enhance water storage, strengthen extension services)enhance water storage, strengthen extension services)
Greater policy support required to trigger Greater policy support required to trigger massive action in addressing the risksmassive action in addressing the risksIntegrate national development policies into Integrate national development policies into a sustainable development framework that a sustainable development framework that complements adaptationcomplements adaptation
Need financial and technical resources to Need financial and technical resources to strengthen adaptation efforts strengthen adaptation efforts
IndiaIndia’’s Growth Imperatives Growth Imperative
Challenges Challenges ……EnergyEnergy
Access to energy servicesAccess to energy servicesMMore than 75% of rural and 22% of urban ore than 75% of rural and 22% of urban households still depend on wood as the primary households still depend on wood as the primary source of energy for cooking source of energy for cooking
Figure 1 Dis tr ibution (%) of rural hous e holds by pr im ary s ource of e ne rgy us e d for cook ing
76 .5
10 .6
5 .4
7 .4
1 .1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Fire w ood
Dung Cake
LPG
Others
No cooking arrangement
Fuel
sou
rce
% hous e holds
Energy Consumption Must Energy Consumption Must IncreaseIncrease
57% of rural population with no access to 57% of rural population with no access to ElectricityElectricityPeak and energy shortages Peak and energy shortages –– 13.5 % 13.5 % and 9.9 % (2006and 9.9 % (2006--07)07)Per capita electricity Per capita electricity
World 2429World 2429US 13066US 13066India 553India 553
Energy FutureEnergy FutureEnergy use in BAU
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
(mto
e)
Solar +w ind
Nuclear
Hydro (large +small)Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
Total primary commercial energy increases 7.5 times (CAGR: 6.9%)
Coal and Oil remain dominant fuels
Rapid Growth Not Expected to Take Rapid Growth Not Expected to Take India to Current Developed World India to Current Developed World
Levels Even by 2031Levels Even by 2031
Per capita cement and steel requirementsPer capita cement and steel requirements
Vehicle Ownership, 2004Vehicle Ownership, 2004
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
GDP per capita (dollars)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
vehi
cles
per
1,0
00 p
eopl
e
Italy
UKJapan
USA
Germany
France Canada
KoreaMalaysiaMexico
BrazilThailand
IndonesiaChina
India
The potential for increased vehicle ownership in emerging markets, in particular China and India, is huge
© OECD/IEA (2006)
Per Capita Electricity & Motorized Per Capita Electricity & Motorized Transportation DemandsTransportation Demands
Energy Security: High Import Energy Security: High Import DependencyDependency
Fuel Import in 2031Coal import: 1438 MT
~4 times of consumption in 2001
Import dependency: 78%
Oil import: 680 MTImport dependency: 93%
Gas import: 93 BCMImport dependency: 67%
Targeting sustainability concerns can Targeting sustainability concerns can play a role in mitigating GHG emissionsplay a role in mitigating GHG emissions
Reducing trend of Energy and CO2 Emissions IntensityReducing trend of Energy and CO2 Emissions Intensity
Energy Intensity
0.010
0.012
0.014
0.016
0.018
0.020
0.022
0.024
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Year
kgoe
/Rs
of G
DP
LOWEFF BAU NUC EFF HYB
CO2 Emission Intensity
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Yearkg
CO
2/R
s of
GD
P
LOWEFF BAU NUC EFF HYB
Low carbon futures for the economy can be targeted through the introduction of ESTs
enhanced energy efficiency; shift towards renewables and cleaner power generation options etc.
Energy SecurityEnergy SecurityFuel Imports in 2031
917
508
680
407
91 91
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
BAU HYB BAU HYB BAU HYB
Coal Oil Gas
mto
e
Major natural gas trade Major natural gas trade movementsmovements
Renewed Interest in Renewed Interest in HydropowerHydropower
World Hydropower Potential
The remaining hydropower potential is still large in developing countries
Electricity Generating Cost Ranges Electricity Generating Cost Ranges of Main Technologiesof Main Technologies
Gas-fired electricity is no longer the cheapest form of generation; prices assumed to remain between $6 and $7 per MBtu
Coal is now the cheapest source in many countries
3
4
5
6
7
8
Nuclear CCGT Coal steam IGCC Wind
US ce
nts pe
r kW
h
Sensitivity of generating costs Sensitivity of generating costs to fossilto fossil--fuel pricesfuel prices
Nuclear can compete with gas at a gas price above $5.70/MBtu –corresponding to $40-$45 per barrel of oil
Mitigation InterventionsMitigation Interventions
Need access to clean energy resourcesNeed access to clean energy resourcesTechnology frontier needs to be pushed Technology frontier needs to be pushed Affordability issues need to be addressedAffordability issues need to be addressed
Reduced costsReduced costsIncreased incomesIncreased incomes
Infrastructure expansion should be Infrastructure expansion should be ““cleanclean””
Thank youThank you