reducing losses from natural disasters: new models that integrate perspectives from science and...

Reducing Losses from Natural Disasters: New Models that Integrate Perspectives from Science and Society

Reducing Losses from Natural Disasters: New Models that Integrate Perspectives from Science and Society

Dr. Eve GruntfestMark Workman Public Lecture November 4, 2009 University of North Florida Jacksonville, FL

Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

Background - applied geographerSocial scientist in world of engineers and physical scientistsGeography professor at University of Colorado Colorado Springs for 27 years

Research on flash floods and warning systems


The Big Thompson Flood in Colorado 140 died July 31, 1976The Big Thompson Flood in Colorado 140 died July 31, 1976•Who lived?

•Who died?

•Studied the behaviors that night

•Career – “socio/hydro/ meteoro - logist”


Outline Outline

International Flash Flood Laboratory

1. Examples of hydro-socio-meteor-ology at work Weather & Society * Integrated Studies (WAS * IS) Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM)

2. Ten big hazard mitigation questions

Clark County Regional Flood Control District http://www.ccrfcd.org


WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

WAS* ISWAS* ISweather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

water

Why WAS * IS? As an “add on social scientist” always a few people would say after a talk ---

Why WAS * IS? As an “add on social scientist” always a few people would say after a talk ---

– I don’t know how, and…– I don’t know anyone else who does this kind of work”

“I want to do work that integrates meteorology and societal impacts BUT…

WAS*IS visionTo change the weather enterprise by comprehensively and sustainably integrating social science into meteorological and hydrological research and practice

WAS*IS mission – building hydro-socio-metero logy capacityWAS*IS mission – building hydro-socio-metero logy capacity1. Build an interdisciplinary community of practitioners,

researchers and stakeholders — from the grassroots up — dedicated to the integration of meteorology and hydrology and social science

2. Provide opportunities to learn and examine ideas, methods, and examples related to integrated weather-society work

• Tools – qualitative methods, surveys, interviews• Concepts – speaking the same language, problem definition• Topics – intros to social sciences, vulnerability and resilience,

roles of technology, communication and use of weather information

The WAS*IS movement The WAS*IS movement • Began as 1 workshop … now 7 • Original 2-part Boulder WAS*IS (Nov 2005, Mar 2006)• Condensed 3-day Norman WAS*IS (April 2006) • Summer WAS*IS (July 2006)• Australia WAS*IS (end of January 2007)• Summer WAS * IS (July 2007)• Summer WAS * IS (July 2008)• Summer WAS*IS (August 2009)• Integrated Warning Team Meetings inspired by WAS * IS

• Springfield, MO December 2008• Kansas City, MO January 2009• Omaha, NE September 2009

As of November, 2009 - 198 WAS*ISers and hundreds of “friends of WAS * IS”

Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM)

Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM)

The National Weather Center – Norman, OK Funded by University of Oklahoma and NOAA www.sswim.org

Collaborate with UNF Weaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

http://www.sswim.org/

SSWIM’s three goals SSWIM’s three goals

1. To weave social science into the activities of the National Weather Center and elsewhere – not an “add –on”

2. To earn a reputation as a center of social

science research and practice in weather and climate work

3. To revolutionize the research to operations equation – so it’s no longer top-down and all partners play equal roles – decision-makers, forecasters, product designers and researchersWeaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

SSWIM’s objectives are innovative research and capacity buildingSSWIM’s objectives are innovative research and capacity building

• … by increasing the appreciation of the value of qualitative as well as quantitative approaches including archival, ethnographic, and participatory methods

• … through partnerships with public, private, and academic sectors, including students, practitioners, and policymakers across the spectrum of stakeholders


Big questions related to loss reduction Big questions related to loss reduction

We need more than better warnings to save lives

We need to understand physical and social vulnerability


Not all hazards are equalNot all hazards are equal

1. What are acceptablelevels of risk? (wind speeds, storm surge?) Does Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scalehelp?2. How do we addressnuisance events vscatastrophic events?

AP Photo/ News & Record, H. Scott Hoffmann Greensboro, NC 6/03/2009

Height of the 1997 Fort Collins, CO flash flood

September 2009 Atlanta floods – Creeks were cresting FEET above historical record levels


3. If 28 people die in Florida or 1000 people in India – were the warnings successful? Research shows people continue doing what they think they need to do


How do we change “public education” paradigm – “right” message is one piece of the puzzle to change behaviorsHow do we change “public education” paradigm – “right” message is one piece of the puzzle to change behaviors

Research shows that drivers know there are warnings and where the hazardous low water crossings are but THEY NEED TO GO to work

Potential to lose their job is perceived as a greater risk than potentially dying while driving across flooded road

Better information is NOT going to change behavior - only if boss closes work

Publics use weather warnings as part of complex decision-making with many other considerations – THEIR BEHAVIORS must be understood to improve warning responses

• Evaluate public education efforts - Before, during, after


What we know about warnings – Public response components

What we know about warnings – Public response components

• Hear/receive• Understand• Believe• Personalize• Decide to act• Respond

The warning process is complex


Source of Photo: http://press.weather.com/content/ss220-erin-midwest_flood-mike_rescue.jpg

We need to focus on the folks who do listen to warnings and take appropriate action – not just

those who die or who do not respond

We need to focus on the folks who do listen to warnings and take appropriate action – not just

those who die or who do not respond


Recent research findings

Weather information requirements of each user community are highly specialized -- there is no ONE PUBLIC

•Different languages, capabilities, economic status

Weather research community has not focused on the individual needs of specific usercommunities

Recognition that studies ofbehavior may tell us more than research on perceptions

International Flash Flood LaboratoryWeaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

4. Are “cry wolf” & over-warning major problems? 4. Are “cry wolf” & over-warning major problems?

No measurement of “close calls” & “near misses”

Events occur but not exactly in the warning areas or with exactly the predicted intensity

How about new categories? New metrics?



Realizing it’s difficult to predict flash floods, I prefer more warnings even if there are more false alarms or close calls

N= 1047


Officials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash floodingOfficials are too sensitive to the possibility of flash flooding

N = 1031


Verification/false alarms

Alligators don’t answerthe phone to report in about windspeed


Forecast verification is difficult in rural areas….

5. How can we assure robust communication on many levels? Where were maps & GIS, even telephones right after Hurricane Katrina?

6. Is there a BEST lead-time? Forecasts are often very good but people die – housing or transportation more important than forecast accuracy


7. Which graphical images are most effective? How local? How real-time?


Gina Eosco SSWIM graduate studentGina Eosco SSWIM graduate student

• Pursuing Ph.D. in Communication at University of Oklahoma

• Five years experience working at American Meteorological Society

• Master’s work at Cornell University – Interviewing forecasters, government officials & others

about their interpretations, objectives, & desired behavioral responses to the cone of uncertainty, a hurricane track graphic tool



8. How do people interpret probabilities &/or uncertainties?

Different messages for different folks? Officials, Publics: tourists, elderly

Tuesday 8pm

H

W E

N

STuesday 8pm

Wednesday 8am

Thursday 8am

LISTENTO

YOUREMERGENCYMANAGERS

No cone option?


West Nile Virus study epidemiology - public awareness example West Nile Virus study epidemiology - public awareness example

NOBODY identifies themselves as “elderly”

• Folks >50 years old most vulnerable to severe manifestations

• Campaign for elderly


Report from Hurricane IKE – Galveston, TX September 2008 ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY

ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES…WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH.


9. What should be policy regarding National Weather Service Calls to Action? LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!


MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE... ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND.

Were "Calls to Action" too strong? Were "Calls to Action" too strong?

How can we motivate peopleto evacuate who need toevacuate?


Oceanfront restaurant September 2008– Galveston

10. Can we reduce vulnerability with monstrous development pressures? Will the rebuilding cycle be stopped?

2009Miami 1926

10. How can we reduce losses when vulnerability keeps increasing?


Jacksonville thenand now Jacksonville thenand now


National Weather Servicehydrologists

Private forecastersEnvironmental groups

Local Communities

Hydro-socio-meteoro-logy occurs when stovepipes are not the model

UniversitiesInternational AgenciesGeographers

Research Centers

Urban Drainage DistrictsAnthropologists

Broadcast meteorologistsUtilities

National Weather Servicemeteorologists

International Flash Flood LaboratoryWeaving Social Science into Weather & Climate Research & Practice

Before now, who were the most influential players in disaster mitigation?


Hydro-socio-meteoro-logists are NOT the same people with new models or gadgets!Hydro-socio-meteoro-logists are NOT the same people with new models or gadgets!

New partners are changing the uni-dimensional culture with interdisciplinaryapproaches

New partners are changing the uni-dimensional culture with interdisciplinaryapproaches

THANKS TO the College of Arts and Sciences Mark Workman Fellowship Grant for hosting my visit - Gift from Stephanie & Gerald Mitchell

Dr. Radha Pyati, Director of the UNF Environmental Center, for her vision and hard work to bring us all together todayApril Moore for efficiently handling the numerous details

All of YOU for coming

THANKS TO the College of Arts and Sciences Mark Workman Fellowship Grant for hosting my visit - Gift from Stephanie & Gerald Mitchell

Dr. Radha Pyati, Director of the UNF Environmental Center, for her vision and hard work to bring us all together todayApril Moore for efficiently handling the numerous details





Photo by Stephen Morton/Getty Images Jacksonville August 22, 2008


reducing losses from natural disasters: new models that integrate perspectives from science and...

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