Recent Trends in Informal Socializing

Peter V. Marsden, Department of Sociology, Harvard University

(joint work with Sameer Srivastava, Program in Organizational Behavior, Harvard, headed for Haas School of Business, UC-Berkeley)

May 19, 2012

Societal Change Across a Generation: The General Social Survey at 40 (1972-2012)

American Association for Public Opinion Research

Commercial for book based on GSS, Social Trends in American Life

12 studies of trends based on 1972-2008 GSSs

Among them are 3 presentations in this session

To be published by Princeton in autumn 2012

Covers . . .

Changing Social and Political Attitudes

Trends in Social Connectedness

Stability and Change in Subjective Well-Being

Change in Social Networks Concerns over declining “social capital” and social

connections; Putnam, Bowling Alone, e.g.

McPherson, Smith-Lovin, Brashears (ASR, 2006); GSS-based study of confidant network size

Mean size fell ~29% from 2.94 (1985) to 2.10 (2004); % citing no one rose from 10% (1985) to about 23% (2004)

Measured only in 1985 and 2004, via free-recall methods

Apparently dramatic fall in close personal ties

Methodological adjustments and compositional controls do not account for decline

Speculation that it reflects reorganization or “bifurcation” of networks toward a smaller, family-centered core surrounded by more weak uniplex ties

Controversial finding: other studies and measurement methods yield less dramatic results, some indicating stability

Setup for this Presentation If social networks are in decline, should be visible

across other indicators

Focus here on trends in GSS respondents’ reports of frequency of informal socializing

Among longest series measuring informal social contacts: 21 surveys covering 1974-2008

N of nearly 30,000

Working sample is noninstitutionalized English-speaking adults (post-2004 Spanish-only interviewees excluded)

GSS Measure of Socializing . . . which answer comes closest to how often you do

the following things?

1. Spend a social evening with relatives

2. Spend a social evening with friends who live outside the neighborhood

3. Spend a social evening with someone who lives in your neighborhood

4. Go to a bar or tavern

7 ordinal response categories Never

About once a year

Several times a year

About once a month

Several times a month

Once or twice a week

Almost every day

We examine distinction between “Several times a month” or more and “about once a month or less”

Analytic Methods Analyses weighted for # adults in household, sampling

phase (after 2002), oversampling of blacks (1982)

Standard errors adjusted for clustering within NORC PSUs/NFAs

Findings presented graphically, based on logistic regression analysis using (many) indicator variables

Socializing trends (through 2010)

10

20

30

40

50

60

Pe

rcen

t m

ore

tha

n m

on

thly

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Relatives Friends

Neighbors Bars

Socializing Trends Much of the story of stability rather than change

Perceptible upward trend in >monthly socializing with friends (a few percentage points)

Mid-period dip in socializing with relatives, but this is most common form at all times

Clear downward trend in neighboring, about 10 percentage points

Weaker downward trend in visiting bars

What underlies these modest changes? Much discussion surrounding these and similar trends

attributes them to period-related phenomena, such as

Time pressure, employment

Suburbanization and sprawl

More (too much?) TV, video games

Generational turnover (recent generations less active?)

Well-known Demographic Shifts Aging: older people may be less active

New cohorts : are they more or less active?

Changing population composition in terms of education, household structure, family size, ethnicity, rural/urban/suburban residence

What period-linked differences in socializing are found net of these demographic factors?

Cohort Replacement Increases Socializing, Intra-Cohort Change Reduces it

Substituting a member of a more recent cohort for someone in an earlier one would raise level of socializing; this simultaneously substitutes a younger person for an older one

Within cohorts, socializing declines over time (and as people simultaneously age)

We distinguish age, period, cohort-related components of change via Mason-Fienberg fixed effect approach, equating effects within adjacent ages and cohorts, on reasoning that patterns relatively smooth

Age, Cohort, and Period Differences Age differences generally appear to be largest

Cohort differences detectable but relatively slight

Overall year (period) differences detectable for 3 of 4 outcomes (not friends), and qualitatively similar to overall trends

Age: Predicted Probabilities of More-Than-Monthly Contact

Age Differences All 4 forms of socializing decline with age, moreso

among the young for all but relatives

Decline with age greatest for friends

Some evidence of post-midlife rebound in socializing with neighbors, consistent with Cornwell/Laumann/Schumm (American Sociological Review, April 2008)

Clear evidence of US drinking age in visiting bars/taverns

Cohort: Predicted Probabilities of More-Than-Monthly Contact

Cohort Differences Cohort patterns largely flat

If anything, plots suggest that recent cohorts are slightly more active (except for relatives)

Year: Predicted Probabilities of More-Than-Monthly Contact

Period Differences Resemble bivariate year differences in most respects

Clear downward period trend in socializing with neighbors

Smaller but visually apparent downward period trend in visiting bars/taverns

Some evidence of recent upward period trend in socializing with relatives

Friends period trend flat, insignificant

Covariates for Ongoing Compositional Change

Relatives, neighbors more common among rural residents; SMSA dwellers opt for friends, bars; suburbanites lowest on neighboring

Blacks tend to see relatives, neighbors, while whites more apt to see friends or visit bars

Educated more apt to see friends, go to bars; less neighboring and relatives

Marriage, children promote socializing with relatives; non-married tend to socialize in other venues

Women emphasize socializing with family

Neighboring lower among the employed, visits to bars more frequent

Period Differences, Net of Covariates: Predicted Probabilities of More-Than-Monthly Contact

Period Differences, Net of Covariates Qualitatively unchanged from earlier plots

Detectable downward trends in neighboring, bars;

Detectable upward recent trend in socializing with relatives

No detectable difference in socializing with friends

Conclusions Modest changes in socializing during 1974-2008

Period-related declines in contact with neighbors, visiting bars

Upward recent period trend in contact with relatives

Age patterning very strong, nonlinear, steepest gradient among younger adults

Weak cohort pattern may tend to raise socializing

Adjusting for covariates modifies but does not explain period-related trends

Remarks and Limitations Declines for only some forms of socializing, and

appear more modest than those in confiding reported by McPherson et al.

Measures only a few types of informal social contact, not close confidants

Socializing but one domain of “social capital”

Increased emphasis on socializing with relatives versus nonkin is consistent with conjecture of network realignment/bifurcation

Emerging forms of contact (online, notably) not represented here