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International migration: International migration: Recent levels, trends and prospectsRecent levels, trends and prospects
Eleventh Coordination Meeting on International MigrationNew York, 21-22 February 2013
Clare MenozziClare MenozziMigration Section, Population DivisionMigration Section, Population Division
Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)United NationsUnited Nations
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Data on international migration produced by the Population Division
1. International migrant stock(Estimates and short-term projections produced by the Migration Section)
2. International migration flows(Empirical data compiled by the Migration Section)
3. Net migration(Estimates and long-term projections produced by the PEP Section)
What are international migrant stocks?
Number of persons living outside of their
country of birth or citizenship at one
point in time
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
The number of international migrants has increased….
156166
178
195214
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
??
2013 Revision2008
Revision
International migrant stock, 1990 to 2010 (millions)
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
2013 Revision
The evidence base has improvedCountries with data for the 1990, 2000 or 2010 census round
With data for three census roundsWith data for two census roundsWith data for one census roundWith no data
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
51%49%
Coverage has also improvedTotal migrant stock residing in a country
with data for the 2010 census round (percentage)
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
79%
21%
2013 Revision
With no data for the 2010 census round
With data for the 2010 census round
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Selected characteristics of international migrants
1. Sex
2. Age (launched in 2010)
3. Origin (launched in 2012)
1. Sex• Feminization of migration
2. Age (launched in 2010)• Migrant children• The contributions of migrants to host societies
(dependency ratios)• Ageing among migrants
3. Origin (launched in 2012)• South-South, intra-regional migration• Size of transnational communities (diasporas)• Average distances • …
Most migration occurs within regions rather than across regions …
75 per cent or over50 to less than 75 per centLess than 50 per cent
International migrants living in the same major area as the one they were born in, 2010 (percentage)
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
… but migration patterns are changing
Change in migrant stock by major area of origin, 1990 to 2010 (percentage)
Declined due to the outflow or death of migrants from another major areaDeclined due to the outflow or death of migrants from the same major areaIncreased mainly due to the inflow of migrants from another major areaIncreased mainly due to the inflow of migrants from the same major area
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
What are international migration flows?
International migration flows refer to the event of moving,
from one country (origin) to another country (destination)
in a given period (for example 1 year)
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Coverage:• 15 countries in 2005 revision• 29 countries in 2008 revision• 43 countries in 2010 revision
Types of flows:• Inflows • Outflows• Net flows
Criteria used to classify migrants:• Country of birth• Citizenship• Place of residence (previous or future)
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
The Population Division has expanded its data on migration flows
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
AsiaAfrica
Europe
Latin America and the
Caribbean
Other
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Inflows …Inflow of foreign migrants to Spain by major area of origin, 1990 to 2010
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Global financial crisis
-56%
-65%
-65%
-85%
-63%
-32%
-15%
-49%
Romania
United Kingdom
Paraguay
China
Brazil
Morocco
Colombia
Ecuador
Countries of origin of foreign immigrants to Spain that experienced the largest decline, 2008 to 2010 (percentage change)
Inflows …
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
AsiaAfrica
Europe
Latin America and the
Caribbean
Other
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Outflows …Outflow of citizens from Spain by major area of destination, 1990 to 2010
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Foreigners
Citizens
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Outflows …
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Foreigners
Citizens
Outflow of citizens and foreigners from Spain, 1990 to 2010
What is net migration?
Number immigrants minus the number of
emigrants
It includes both foreigners and citizens…
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
In several developed countries, net migration is an important component of population
change ...
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Change in population size, by the main demographic component affecting that change, 1990 to 2010
Decreased mainly due to natural changeDecreased mainly due to net migrationIncreased mainly due to net migrationIncreased mainly due to natural change
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1950-1960 1980-1990 2010-2020 2040-2050
… and will likely continue to be so in the future
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1950-1960 1980-1990 2010-2020 2040-2050
Total net change
Net migration (immigrants-emigrants)
Natural change (births-deaths)
EuropeAfrica
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Currently looking at ways to improve assumptions about future net migration trends
Contribution of natural change and net migration to net population change, 1950 to 2050 (millions)
5
16
-8
-3-5
Europe NorthernAmerica
Oceania Caribbean Polynesia
In countries of destination, international migration often leads to an increase in the number of births …
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Difference in the number of births with and without net migration during the period 1990 to 2010 (percentage change)
Forthcoming data1. International migrant stocks
(2013 revision)• Sex• Age• Origin
2. International migration flows (2013 revision)
• Expanded coverage (South-South migration)
3. Net migration (2012 revision)• Ongoing work: alternative scenarios for
projecting net migration
Thank you.Thank you.
http://www.unmigration.orghttp://www.unmigration.org