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Recent Demographic and Labour Market Trends in Saskatchewan
Presentation to:
Regional Health Authority BoardsMarch 3, 2009
Doug ElliottSask Trends Monitor
444 19th AvenueRegina, Saskatchewan
S4N 1H1 306-522-5515
March 3 2009 2
Outline
Recent Population Trends in SaskatchewanStatistics about the Saskatchewan population and the elements of population growth can be examined up to and including the middle of 2008.
Sub-provincial TrendsFor sub-provincial regions and individual communities, the 2006 census is the most recent available population data.
Labour Market ImplicationsDemographics affects the delivery of health care but also the human resource requirements for the sector.
These data are from Statistics Canada unless otherwise specified. The responsibility for the interpretation of the information and conclusions drawn remains with Sask Trends Monitor.
Recent Population Trendsin Saskatchewan
There are three interrelated factors that determine the size andstructure of any population:- the natural growth rate (births less deaths);- migration to or from other countries; and- migration to or from other provinces.
The figures from 2001 to 2008 are preliminary and will be revised when the results of the 2006 census are incorporated into the estimates.
March 3 2009 4
Determinants of Population: Natural Growth
The natural growth rate in Saskatchewan is stabilizing after years of declines.
The decline in the number of births is caused by lower fertility rates offset by an increase in the number of women in the child-bearing age groups.
The increase in the number of deaths arises because lower mortality rates are offset by more people in older age groups.
In absolute terms, the net increase arising from natural growth is now about 3,000/year.
Natural Growth (Births less Deaths)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1977-1978
1980-1981
1983-1984
1986-1987
1989-1990
1992-1993
1995-1996
1998-1999
2001-2002
2004-2005
2007-2008
July to June
NetBirthsDeaths
Births
Deaths
Natural Increase
thousands
March 3 2009 5
Determinants of Population: International Migration
Immigration is increasing dramatically because of the new Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program although the numbers are still small relative to other provinces.
In absolute terms, the net increase from international migration (+3,500) is now more than the natural growth rate.
Retention of international immigrants has been a problem in the past. The retention of these newer immigrants is still unknown.
International Migration (Immigration and Emigration)
0
1
2
3
4
5
1977-1978
1980-1981
1983-1984
1986-1987
1989-1990
1992-1993
1995-1996
1998-1999
2001-2002
2004-2005
2007-2008
July to June
Net flowImmigrationEmigration and other net outflow
Immigration
Emigration
Net Flow
thousands
March 3 2009 6
Determinants of Population: Interprovincial Migration
Interprovincial migration has been and will probably continue to be the main determinant of the Saskatchewan population.
Interprovincial migration rates are an order of magnitude larger than the other flows.
The number of persons leaving Saskatchewan hasn’t changed appreciably but the number moving to Saskatchewan from other provinces has doubled in the past two years.
Interprovincial Migration
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1977-1978
1980-1981
1983-1984
1986-1987
1989-1990
1992-1993
1995-1996
1998-1999
2001-2002
2004-2005
2007-2008
July to June
Incoming
Outgoing
Net Flow
thousands
March 3 2009 7
Total Provincial Population
The net effect of all the population flows has been, until recently, a downward trend in the provincial population.
The reversal in inter-provincial migration together with the increase in immigration has added nearly 20,000 persons since 2006.
Total Provincial Population
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1,000
1,010
1,020
1,030
1,040
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008as of July:
thousands
March 3 2009 8
Interprovincial Migration: Origins & Destinations
Preliminary figures for 2007-08 suggest that the turnaround in inter-provincial migration is largely because of a reversal in the net flow to/from Alberta.
Rather than losing 4,000 people on a net basis, we are now gaining 5,200:
• outgoing = 11,200,• incoming = 16,400.
There has also been a significant increase in the number of people moving to Saskatchewan from Ontario.
Net Interprovincial Flows
-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000
Atlantic
Que
Ont
Man
Alta
BC
North2002-032007-08
March 3 2009 9
Summary
The long term trend in Saskatchewan of a net outflow of people to other provinces reversed abruptly in 2007 and 2008.
This was accompanied by an increase in the number of immigrants moving to the province.
These two flows were sufficient to overcome a declining natural growth rate and the population is increasing again.
It is too soon to tell if this is a temporary aberration, the start of a long term trend, or a combination of the two.
Sub-provincial Trends
These are community-level data from the Statistics Canada Census
March 3 2009 11
Long Term Trends by Community Type
This figure shows the long term (20-year) population growth per year according to the legal definition of the community in 2006.
The more urban the community, the more likely it is to be growing or at least declining more slowly. Although there are a couple of exceptions, the bedroom communities around Regina and Saskatoon are the only towns showing growth over the long term.
Reserves and the Far North are an exception – they are growing in spite of their “rural” character.
Average Annual Population Increase, 1986 to 2006
0.2%
-0.5%
-1.0%
-1.4%
0.5%
2.8%
-0.2%
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
Cities
Towns
Villages*
RMs
North
Reserves**
Provincial Total
* including recreational villages ** excluding the North
March 3 2009 12
Recent Trends by Community Type
The trend in the most recent five years is remarkably similar to the long term one.
Average Annual Population Increase, 2001 to 2006
0.2%
-0.6%
-1.2%
-1.4%
0.1%
2.1%
-0.2%
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3%
Cities
Towns
Villages*
RMs
North
Reserves**
Provincial Total
* including recreational villages ** excluding the North
March 3 2009 13
Long Term Trends by Major Urban Area
These figures count the population in the surrounding RM or “bedroom community” as part of the urban centre.
Over the long term, Lloydminster, Regina, and Saskatoon are the only major urban areas with population growth.
CMA = census metropolitan areaCA = census agglomeration
Average Annual Population Increase, 1986 to 2006
0.7%
0.2%
-0.0%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.3%
-0.1%
0.2%
-0.9%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2%
Saskatoon CMA
Regina CMA
Prince Albert CA
Moose Jaw CA
North Battleford CA
Yorkton CA
Swift Current CA
Estevan CA
Lloydminster (SK) CA
All other locations
Grand Total
March 3 2009 14
Recent Trends by Major Urban Area
The same general pattern is evident in the most recent five years, namely growth in Regina and Saskatoon and declines elsewhere except for Lloydminster.
Although not shown here, the populations in the surrounding metropolitan areas is generally growing more quickly than the population in the city proper.
Average Annual Population Increase, 2001 to 2006
0.7%
0.2%
-0.3%
-0.1%
-0.8%
-0.1%
-0.3%
0.5%
-1.0%
-0.2%
0.0%
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2%
Saskatoon CMA
Regina CMA
Prince Albert CA
Moose Jaw CA
North Battleford CA
Yorkton CA
Swift Current CA
Estevan CA
Lloydminster (SK) CA
All other locations
Grand Total
March 3 2009 15
2001 to 2006 Growth, Southern Saskatchewan
Estevan
Weyburn
Melville
ReginaMoose Jaw
Swift Current
Yorkton
SaskatoonHumboldt
Population Change from 2001 to 2006(provincial average = -1.1%)
5% or moreIncreased less than 5%Declined less than 5%Declined more than 5%
March 3 2009 16
2001 to 2006 Growth, Northern Saskatchewan
Flin Flon
Saskatoon
Melfort
Humboldt
Prince Albert
North Battleford
Lloydminster
Flin Flon
Lloydminster
Cold Lake
Population Change from 2001 to 2006(provincial average = -1.1%)
5% or moreIncreased less than 5%Declined less than 5%Declined more than 5%
March 3 2009 17
The Relationship between Population and Households
We often hear that the census figures must be wrong because they show a population decline in a community even when there is a lot of new homes being built.
These two trends are not incompatible – population can decline even as the number of dwellings or households increases.
For example, the number of dwellings in Saskatchewan increased by 2% from 2001 to 2006 even as the population declined. Average household size has dropped from 2.8 persons to 2.4 persons in the last twenty years.
Households (Dwellings) and Populations, Saskatchewan
3.4
3.1
2.8 2.82.7
2.62.5
2.4
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 20061.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Population
Dwellings
Persons per Household
thousands
March 3 2009 18
Summary
In Saskatchewan, as in the rest of the world, there is a long-term trend toward the urbanization of the population.
It is too soon to tell, but if past trends are any indication then the recent growth in the provincial population will be concentrated in Regina and Saskatoon.
Implications for the Labour Market
The demographic trends have an impact on the delivery of health care but they also have an impact on the labour market – the people who deliver the services.
March 3 2009 20
Age Distribution in Saskatchewan, 2008
Saskatchewan Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87
Baby Boomers43-62 years of ageborn 1946 to 1965
Generation Y8-27 years of ageborn 1981 to 2000
Generation X
March 3 2009 21
Average “Retirement” Age
For those in the public sector (broadly defined to include health and education as well as government proper), the average retirement age in 2008 was 59 years.
Private sector paid workers tend to work three years longer. The self-employed still retire at age 65.
There is evidence of a slight upward trend since the turn of the decade.
In 2008, 54% of those Saskatchewan residents 60 to 64 years of age were working compared with 50% in 2003.
Average Retirement Age (Canada)
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Public SectorPrivate SectorSelf-employed
March 3 2009 22
Age Distribution Revisited
The labour market will be changing in the near future because the oldest of the baby boomers are now nearing “normal”retirement age.
Even if the boomers don’t retire, the impact of a larger number of older workers mixed with a growing number of younger ones will have implications for human resources.
Saskatchewan Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72
Primary Labour MarketAge Group
25 to 59 Years
March 3 2009 23
Age Structure: Labour Market
Within ten years, the peak of the baby boomer generation reaches normal retirement age and exit the labour force, perhaps permanently.
In their place is a surge of young adults, many of whom are Aboriginal.
It is too soon to tell what the effect of the current economic turmoil will be on normal retirement patterns.
Estimated Saskatchewan Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72
Primary Labour MarketAge Group
25 to 59 Years
thousands
non-Aboriginal
Aboriginal
Labour Market Statistics for the Saskatchewan Health Care Sector
These statistics are from Statistics Canada’s monthly Labour Force Survey. The population living on Reserve is not included in this survey.
The “health sector” includes:• hospitals and special care homes;• dentist and physician offices;• labs and other diagnostic services; • ambulances; • home care; and• social assistance services such as family services.
March 3 2009 25
Age Group and Gender
Health care workers are overwhelmingly female –85% compared with 41% in other sectors.
There is a cluster of health care workers in the 45 to 59 age group and relatively few under 30 years of age or older than 65.
Four out of ten (41%) have been with their current employer for at least ten years compared with 33% for those working in other sectors.
Age of Health Sector Workers, Saskatchewan, 2008
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Under25
25 to29
30 to34
35 to39
40 to44
45 to49
50 to54
55 to59
60 to64
65plus
Other SectorsHealth Care
March 3 2009 26
Hours of Work
In the health care sector 9% are self-employed compared with 20% in other sectors. 12% are in temporary or casual positions, the same as in other sectors. 9% work in two jobs simultaneously, the same as in other sectors.
Two thirds (66%) are union members compared with 30% in other sectors. 41% work in a large establishment (100+ employees) compared with 24% in other sectors.
21% are part-timers compared with 17% in other sectors.
Weekly Hours of Work for Health Care Sector Workers, (actual at main job), 2008
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
None Under 30 30 to 40 More than 40
Other SectorsHealth Care
March 3 2009 27
Completed Education
The vast majority of workers are post-secondary graduates even though a surprisingly high proportion (27%) have no post-secondary education.
The proportion who are post-secondary graduates has increased from 67% in 1998.
Formal Education for Health Care Sector Workers, Saskatchewan, 2008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Grade 12 or less Certificate or diploma Degree
Other SectorsHealth Care
March 3 2009 28
Wage Rates
Average hourly earnings (among paid workers only) were $22.02 in 2008 compared with $20.07 in other sectors.
Wage rates have been growing more quickly than the rate of inflation since 2002.
The gap between the health care sector and other sectors widened in the middle of the decade but it has narrowed more recently.
Average Hourly Earnings (paid workers only) Adjusted for Inflation, Saskatchewan
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Health careOther sectors
constant $2008
March 3 2009 29
Summary
Compared with other sectors, health care workers are more likely to be:
• in the 45 to 64 age group;• women;• in part-time positions;• union members;• working in a large establishment;• in higher paying positions; and• post-secondary graduates.
The health care sector needs to be concerned about the aging of its labour force in the medium (10 years or so) term.
Questions?