1

Recent Advances at the National Centers for Environmental

Prediction

“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

Louis W. UccelliniDirector, NCEP

University of Wisconsin – MadisonOctober 6, 2003

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Overview

• Define NCEP• Status of Models• Recent Advancements

– Hurricane forecasts– Wave Watch III– QPF– Climate Model

• JCSDA• Future Plans for Community Models

– Ensembles– WRF– ESMF

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Define NCEP

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NCEP Center Locations

Space Environment Center Aviation Weather Center

NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Storm Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

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What Does NCEP Do?

Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Quantitative Precipitation

Forecasts to 5 days Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions

Severe Weather Watches Hurricane Watches and

Warnings Aviation Warnings

(Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to

Seasonal to Interannual) Marine High Seas Forecasts Solar Monitoring –

geomagnetic storm forecasts

Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products

Model Development and Applications, including Data AssimilationOcean Models for Climate Prediction; Coastal Ocean Forecast System; Wave ModelsSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

6Contractors/Visiting Scientists: 155

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Employment Situation

• Employment situation– Total of 375 Civil Servants; 131 contractors; 24 visitors– Currently have 6 Student Interns (SCEP/STEP); 2 volunteers– During the last 12 months

• 33 CS vacancies; 6 SCEPs; • Hired 28 contractors• 7 new visiting scientists• 14 Summer Hires (ORISE, GoHFAS, NOAA Educational

Partnership Programs)

– Projected growth through ’08: 50 – 60 (contractors/visiting scientists/postdocs)

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Status of Models

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Computing Capability

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

$20M/Year $20M/Year InvestmentInvestment

•Receives Over 116 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)

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NCEP Operational ModelsEta

12 km, 60 levels, 84 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z

Global Forecast System (GFS)

T254 (~55 km) to 3.5 days (84 hrs), 64 levels

T170 (~75 km) to 7.5 days (180 hrs), 42 levels

T126 (~105 km) to 16 days (384 hrs), 28 levels

16 days (384 hrs)/4 times per day

RUC

20 km, 50 levels

12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z

3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14, 16,17,19,20,22,23Z

Climate

T62 (~200 km), 28 levels, 7 months (20 members)

Ensembles

global 10 members at 0 and 12Z

T126 (~105 km) to 84 hrs, T62 (210 km) to 384 hrs

28 levels, 16 days (384 hrs)

regional 10 members at 0 and 12Z

48 km, 45 levels, 63 hrs from 9 and 21Z

Wave Model

global - 1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon

Alaskan Regional - .5 x .25 deg lat/lon

Western North Atlantic - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon

Eastern North Pacific - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon

1 level, 168 hrs/4 times per day

North Atlantic Hurricane (seasonal)

North Pacific Hurricane (seasonal)

.25 x .25 deg lat/lon

1 level

78 hours/4 times per day

GFDL Hurricane Model

coupled ocean-atmosphere

Two nests (0.5, 1/6 deg lat/lon)

42 levels

126 hrs at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z

Status of Distributed ModelsThe Workstation Eta

A means for providing real-time high-resolution numerical model data at the local level

Domain can be placed anywhere on the globe: size and resolution determined by user

Non-NWS use encouraged. About 135 international requests from countries such as China and Brazil (both with >5 users), Turkey and Thailand.

Over 145 domestic users: WFOs, researchers and students at U.S universities

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta/

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Tiling for Higher Resolution Applications

• 6 High resolution

(all 8 km except 10 km Alaska) Window nested runs - once per day to 48 hours

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Tiling for Higher Resolution Applications

• Fire weather runs – 8

km NMM runs on demand in one of 26 areas of coverage, each about 900 km square up to 4/day

• Dispersion models run on demand using 4 km NMM for Homeland Security

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Recent Advancements

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CDAS/Reanl vs GFSNH/SH 500Hpa day 5

Anomaly Correlation (20-80 N/S)

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45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

YEAR

An

om

aly

Co

rre

lati

on

NH GFSSH GFSNH CDAS/ReanlSH CDAS/Reanl

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Recent Advancements: Hurricanes

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NHC Yearly-averaged Atlantic Track Forecast Errors

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TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

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Hurricane MichelleOctober 29 - November 5, 2001

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Hurricane Claudette5-Day Hurricane Forecast

Radar 10:45 AMJuly 15, 2003

Error (nm) 12 h 24 h 36 h 48 h 72 h 96 h 120 h

OFCL 35 57 84 112 128 135 147

GFDL 32 56 88 121 163 233 273

GFS 38 66 93 121 193 218 301

# of cases 25 24 22 19 14 8 8

Hurricane Isabel

Thursday, 9/18/0312 PM EDT5-day forecast

3-day forecast

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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

12 24 36 48 72

Forecast Period (hours)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Err

or

(nau

tica

l mile

s)

1964-1973

1984-1993

1974-1983

1994-2002

Isabelprelim.

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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Period (hours)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Err

or

(nau

tica

l mile

s)

1964-1973

1984-1993

1974-1983

1994-2002

Isabelprelim.

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Recent Advancements: Wave Watch III

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• New model design with emphasis on transparency, vectorization and parallelization (plug compatible, portable).

• More general governing transport equation, allowing for later full coupling with ocean models.

• Improved propagation schemes (third order).• Improved physics integration scheme (follows small

time scale evolution more closely, yet more economical than conventional schemes).

• Improved physics of wave growth and decay.

WAVEWATCH III

new model required

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Operational Configurations

• NOAA WAVEWATCH III officially replaced all previous operational wave models at NCEP on March 9, 2000.• Global model at 1°x1.25° latitude-longitude resolution from

78°S to 78°N, run four times daily for a 168h forecast.• Nested regional models for Alaskan Waters (0.25°x 0.5°)

and Western North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific (0.25°x 0.25°) for same time frame.

• All models use GFS and ice edge information from NCEP's operational ice analysis. A special GFDL driven version of the Western North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific wave model are run for hurricane wave prediction (72h forecast).

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Isabel 18/9/2003, 12 UTCnowcast

48h forecast24h forecast

12h forecast

Intensity and location of forecast waves consistent and confirmed by altimeter and buoy observations. At 48h forecast lower wave heights due to earlier landfall.

wave height 50+ ft (45+ ft)

Isabel at Field Research Facility Duck NC

pictures from US Army Corps Of Engineers Field Research Facility webcam

9/18 14:00 EDT 9/29 14:00 EDT

Maximum observed wave height at the end of the pier 26.6ft, which is roughly the maximum sustainable wave height for the local water depth. Wave height 2 miles offshore reported up to 49 ft.

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Recent Advancements: QPF

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Day 1 0.5 .597 Dec ‘02

1.0 .483 Dec ‘02

2.0 .332 Nov ‘98

3.0 .374 Feb ‘81

Update 0.5 .557 Dec’02

1.0 .423 Dec ‘02

2.0 .286 Dec ‘89

Day 2 0.5 .507 Dec ‘02

1.0 .421 Jan ‘02

Day 3 0.5 .393 Jan ‘02

1.0 .331 Jan ‘02

All Time HPC QPF Threat Score Records

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Recent Advancements: Climate Model

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Climate Model

• Current operational climate model– 200 km, 28 levels, runs to 7 months each month– Linked to SSTs in Pacific basin only

• Improved operational climate model– Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere system

• NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS) atmospheric model

– 200 km resolution, 64 levels, model top 0.2 mb

• MOM3 ocean model (GFDL)– 100 km resolution, 40 levels, 30 km between 10 deg N and 10 deg S– Global; between 65 deg N and 75 deg S– Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)

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Coupled Model Simulation ENSO SST cycles

Nino 3.4 SSTAnomalies

Simulated 2002-2040 (top)

Observed 1965-2003(bottom)

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Coupled Model Simulation SST Interannual Variability

Observed

64 Level Atm

28 Level Atm

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Examples of ENSO eventsSimulated El Nino 2015-2016 Simulated La Nina 2017-18

Real El Nino 1982-1983 Real La Nina 1988-1989

Initial States

Amip – long model run

Reanl2 – reanalysis Casst – constructed analog (emp. Tool)

Cmp14 – operational

Initial States

Amip – long model run

Reanl2 – reanalysis Casst – constructed analog (emp. Tool)

Cmp14 – operational

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JCSDA

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Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilationcreated July 2, 2001

Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from

the advanced satellite sensors Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure Develop common fast radiative transfer system Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather

and climate predictions Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new

satellite technology from two years to one

Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational numerical prediction models

Goals:

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JCSDA Partners

NASA/Goddard

Data Assimilation Office

NASA/Goddard

Seasonal InterannualPrediction Project

NOAA/NESDIS

Office of Research & Applications

NOAA/OAR

Office of Weather and Air Quality

NOAA/NCEP

Environmental Modeling Center

US Navy

Office of Naval Research

US Air Force

Air Weather Agency

(XOW)

Management

Oversight

Board

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JCSDA Organizational Structure

NASA & NOAA

Joint Center StaffCenter Director: Stephen Lord (Acting)

Deputy Directors: Fuzhong Weng - NESDIS L. P. Riishogjaard – NASA

P. Phoebus – NRLTechnical Liaisons:

DAO – D. DeeEMC – J. Derber

NSIPP – M. RieneckerOWAQR – A. Gasiewski

ORA – D. TarpleyNavy – N. Baker

USAF – M. McAteeProgram Support: Christine Brown

George Ohring (NESDIS)

AdvisoryPanel

Rotating Chair

ScienceSteering

Committee

Joint Oversight Board of Directors:NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini (Chair)

Goddard ESD : F. EinaudiNOAA ORA: M. Colton

NOAA OWAQR: D. RogersNavy: S. Chang, R. HillyerUSAF: J. Lanicci, M. Farrar

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JCSDA: Recent Accomplishments Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational

models Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002) Operational implementation (October, 2002)

Enabled use of microwave radiances over land

New Data used in NCEP operational models SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates (October, 2001) SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water (May, 2001) GOES-10 IR radiances (February, 2001) QuikSCAT data (January, 2002)

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Ongoing Activities Preparation for AIRS

Fast radiative model (OPTRAN), documented, delivered, and installed in experimental NCEP global analysis

Prototype cloud detection algorithm and Quality Control developed Data assessment began November 16, 2002

AIRS Targeted Observations Study Winter Storms Reconnaissance cases Test impact of targeted observations Test AIRS impacts with difference schemes Test assimilation techniques (data weighting)

Assessment of AMSR-E Products Acquire AMSR-E products in BUFR format (SST, wind speeds, sea ice concentration) Evaluate product quality Run initial forecast experiments with products Acquire AMSR-E radiances

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Ongoing Activities (cont) Surface emissivity model upgrade for snow and ice

applications New algorithm for SST retrievals

Reduced spatial and time noise Uses OPTRAN for radiative transfer Extension to microwave instruments, AIRS Aerosol effects once in OPTRAN

Preparation for GPS occultation data NSF, NESDIS sponsored Post Docs Collaboration between NASA, NCEP, NESDIS, NCAR

Assimilation of Polar Winds

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Ongoing Activities (cont)JCSDA Announcement of Opportunity

1. Improve radiative transfer model1. UCLA – Advanced Radiative Transfer

2. UMBC – Including Aerosols in OPTRAN

3. NOAA/ETL – Fast microwave radiance assimilation studies

2. Prepare for advanced instruments1. U. Wisconsin – Polar winds assimilation

2. NASA/GSFC – AIRS and GPS assimilation

3. Advance techniques for assimilating cloud and precipitation information1. U. Wisconsin – Passive microwave assimilation of cloud and precipitation

4. Improve emissivity models and surface products1. Boston U. - Time varying Land & Vegetation

2. U. Arizona – Satellite obs for Snow Data Assimilation

3. Colo. State U. – Surface emissivity error analysis

4. NESDIS/ORA – Retrievals of real-time vegetation properties

5. Improve use of satellite data in ocean data assimilation1. U. Md – Ocean data assimilation bias correction

2. Columbia U. – Use of altimeter data

3. NRL (Monterey) – Aerosol contamination in SST Retrievals

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Future Plans for Community Models

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Future Plans• WRF

– Common model infrastructure for mesoscale (NCAR and NCEP Dynamic Core and Physics)

– Sustained by AF, Navy, NCEP, NCAR

– Both cores undergoing testing at NCEP (FSL 3DVAR + Dynamic cores + NCEP post processing)

– First operational implementation at NCEP by Oct ’04

•ESMF–Global common model infrastructure–NCAR, GFDL, NASA/GSFC, MIT, NCEP–Basis for next generation global data assimilation and forecast system

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Future Plans• Ensemble models

– SREF (10 members twice/day, 48 km, 45 levels, 63 hrs)– Global (10 members twice/day; 105 km to 84 hrs, 210 km

to 384 hrs; 28 levels)

GOAL: To create a North American Ensemble Forecast System with the Canadian Meteorological Centre

Dominant Precip Type63 hour forecast

Valid 12Z,December 5, 2002

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Summary

• NCEP is positioned to deal with important strategic issues– Climate-weather-water linkage– Expand into “environmental” prediction– Extend predictive capabilities into week 2– Extend consistent predictive capabilities for

extreme events out to Day 7

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Summary (cont)• Based on Partnership with larger research community

– Community model approach (global and regional)– Active participation in field programs

• North American Monsoon Experiment• THORPEX

– Test Beds:• USWRP/Joint Hurricane Test Bed (TPC)• Hazardous Weather Forecast Test Bed (SPC) • Aviation Test Bed (AWC)• USWRP/Hydrometeorological Test Bed (HPC)

– Data Assimilation efforts through JCSDA

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End of Slides

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N.H. 500 mb Height Anomaly Correlation for Forecasts Days 3 (blue), 5 (aqua), and 7 (red)

Monthly Values and Annual Averages

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S.H. 500 mb Height Anomaly Correlation for Forecasts Days 3 (blue), 5 (aqua), and 7 (red)

Monthly Values and Annual Averages