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Director’s Updateof the

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

COPC Meeting

Naval Oceanography Center

Bay St. Louis, MississippiNovember 20-21, 2002

Dr. Louis Uccellini

NCEP Director

“Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

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Overview

• NCEP Contribution to Homeland Security• Infrastructure Activities• NCEP 2002 Implementations• NCEP 2002 Real Time Test and Evaluation• NCEP Planned 2003 Implementations• Volcanic Ash Model Backup• JCSDA News• WRF News• Appendices

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NCEP’s Contribution to Homeland Security

• Currently, NCEP is providing the following:

- HYSPLIT model running off 12 km Eta model November 2001

- On demand ARL HYSPLIT model run using 4 km NCEP Nonhydrostatic Meso Model (NMM) 25 June 2002

• 4 km NMM model can be run over any one of 26 predefined regions covering CONUS, AK, HI, and PR.

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4 km NMM Domains

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Infrastructure Activities

• New NCEP supercomputer contract has been awarded to IBM and has been installed at IBM’s facility in Gaithersburg, MD and is scheduled to be operational no later then 1 July 2003

• Backup NCEP supercomputer site recommendation to senior NOAA management planned for mid December 2002 – backup computer funding awaits congressional action on FY03 budget

• Backup NCF in Fairmont, W. VA - October 2002 tests have started

• Backup NWSTG in Mt. Weather, VA – September 2004

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NCEP 2002 Implementations

Global Forecast System• AVN and MRF models runs have been

renamed the “Global Forecast System” (GFS)

• Length of 4 per day GFS runs increased to 384 Hours - 5 March 2002

• MRF run discontinued and replaced with the extended 00 UTC GFS - 23 April 2002

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NCEP 2002 Implementations(cont.)

Global Forecast System• Resolution increase from T170L42 (75km) to

T254L64 (55 km) – 29 October 2002• Resolution steps down in later forecast hours

Forecast Hour New Old

F000 - F084 T254L64 T170L42

F087 - F180 T170L42 T170L42

F192 – F384 T126L28 T62L28

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NCEP 2002 Implementations (cont.)

Mesoscale Models• RUC model resolution increase from 40

km / 40 levels to 20 km / 50 levels - 16 April 2002

• RSAS resolution upgrade from 60 km to 15 km 11 June 2002

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NCEP 2002 Implementations (cont.)

Ocean Models

• Eastern North Pacific regional wave model - 30 April 2002

GFDL Hurricane Model• Upgrade from a three grid system (1 deg x

1/3 deg x 1/6 deg) to a larger two grid system (½ deg x 1/6 deg) – 21 May 2002

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Wave Watch III Eastern North Pacific Domain

• .25 x .25 deg domain implemented April 30, 2002.

• Able to resolve all coastal stations and buoys

• Hurricane version to be implemented for ’03 season

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NCEP 2002Real Time Test and Evaluation

Mesoscale Models• SREF – 5 Eta members with Kain-Fritsch

physics – June 2002 (Note 5 Eta and 5 RSM members

operational since 1 September 2001)• 8 km Nonhydrostatic mesoscale model 17 July 2002

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NCEP 2003 Planned Implementations

• Eta physics package and 3DVAR upgrade – Spring 2003

• Eastern Pacific hurricane wave model – Spring 2003

• 8 km nonhydrostatic mesoscale model within WRF infrastructure and coding standards by Summer 2003

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NCEP 2003 Planned Implementations (cont.)

• Wave Model – Extend to 7 days with 4 runs per day

Fall 2003

• Global Ensembles – 4 per day 10 members T126 for 7.5 days T62 from 7.5 days to end

Fall 2003

• Global Forecast System (GFS) – Coupled model for sea surface temps – Summer 2003

– Hourly meteograms out to 36 hours– Spring 2003

– Hourly Long wave radiation package – Fall 2003

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Volcanic Ash Model Backup

• For backup to the VAFTAD model, the NWSTG can now post the AFWA PUFF model graphics

- NCEP supplied commercial graphic package to

AFWA. This package converts graphics to

NWSTG usable form

- All requested changes to graphic output have

been made

• NCEP, NESDIS and AFWA MOA is being finalized

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Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilationcreated July 2, 2001

• Increase uses of current satellite data in NWP models• Develop the hardware/software systems needed to assimilate data from

the advanced satellite sensors• Advance the common NWP models and data assimilation infrastructure• Develop common fast radiative transfer system• Assess the impacts of data from advanced satellite sensors on weather

and climate predictions• Reduce the average time for operational implementations of new

satellite technology from two years to one

Accelerate use of research and operational satellite data in operational numerical prediction models

Goals:

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JCSDA Partners

NASA/Goddard

Data Assimilation Office

NASA/Goddard

Seasonal InterannualPrediction Project

NOAA/NESDIS

Office of Research & Applications

NOAA/OAR

Office of Weather and Air Quality

NOAA/NCEP

Environmental Modeling Center

US Navy

Office of Naval Research

US Air Force

Air Weather Agency

(XOW)

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Organizational Structure NASA & NOAA

Joint Oversight BoardDirectors of:

NOAA NCEP: L. Uccellini(Chair) Goddard ESD: F. Einaudi

NOAA ORA: M. ColtonNOAA OWAQR: D. RogersNavy: R. McCoy, R. Hillyer

USAF: M. Farrar

Joint Center StaffCenter Director: Stephen Lord (Acting)

Executive Directors: Fuzhong Weng – NESDIS,L.-P. Riishojgaard - NASA

Technical Liaisons:DAO – R. Dee

EMC – J. DerberNSIPP – M. Rienecker

OWAQR – A. GasiewskiORA – D. Tarpley

Navy – Nancy BakerContractor Support: George Ohring (NESDIS)

Secretary

AdvisoryPanel

Rotating Chair

Between NASA, NOAA

ScienceSteering

Committee

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JCSDA Recent Accomplishments• Land emissivity model tested in NCEP operational models

• Positive impacts with AMSU data over land (May,2002)• Operational implementation (October, 2002)

• New Data used in NCEP operational models• SSM/I, TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates• SSM/I, AMSU cloud liquid water • GOES-10 IR radiances• QuikSCAT data

• Preparation for AIRS• Computer installed at NASA to deliver data within 180 minutes of ingest• Fast radiative model developed, documented, delivered, undergoing testing• One day GDAS test of AIRS data done in September 2002• Start automated processing AIRS data in November 2002

• “Foundation” Science Issues and Priorities agreed to: Basis for AO

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Framework of Where NCEP is Headed:FY2005 and Beyond

JCSDA(distributed)

Global “Test Bed”

will be needed

ProbableBoulder

“Test Bed”

…

• WRF MOA established and is being signed by all parties.

• Made available 30-day retrospective data sets (BUFR & GRIB) suitable for WRF testing.

• Adapted (with NSSL) NCEP operational NMM postprocessor to WRF standards, issued code and users’ guide.

WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002

WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002

• Converted Eta & NMM dynamics and all physics modules to WRF coding standards.

• Ensured all converted code reproduced NCEP control version results (VERY IMPORTANT).

• Final step to wrap NMM under WRF modeling infrastructure underway - implementation scheduled for 4Q FY2003.

• Made EMC’s grid-to-obs verification codes available with users’ guide.

• Unification (with AFWA) of Land-Surface Model in WRF framework nearing completion.

WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002

• NCEP led WG#4 developed beta version of WRF 3DVAR for testing (nearly ready for release)

• NCEP led WG#9 is proactive in setting needs for testing and infrastructure efficiencies.

• NCEP led WG#12 establishes NCEP’s prepared BUFR observation set for use in WRF 3DVAR and in WRF verification using NCEP’s code.

• Duane Stevens (University of Hawaii) at NCEP working with WRF teams (application of Semi-Lagrangian to hurricanes and evaluation of NCAR Eulerian vs NMM over Hawaii)

WRF Progress at NCEP in 2002

• Established Parallel system to run NCAR Eulerian mass model with NCEP physics in identical 8 km HiResWindow configuration• 4 large domain nests (Western,Central&Eastern CONUS + Alaska)

• 2 small domain nests (Hawaii and Puerto Rico)

• Semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit dynamic core:• Generalized vertical coordinate embodies pure sigma and pure

isentropic and ALL hybrids in between

• Cascade interpolation allowing forward trajectories

• High-order accuracy compact difference schemes

• Non-reflective top boundary condition

• All development within WRF infrastructure

WRF Development at NCEP/EMC

• FY03 Funding• $1.5 M• $700 K NWS base• $800 K External

• Effort for FY03• Nelson Seaman hired under IPA to lead NOAA WRF

management• Total 14.3 PY (Model and Data Assim)• 7.3 PY for development (Semi-Lagrangian, DA)• 7.0 PY for Mesoscale Branch Infrastructure

• Setting up and making test runs• NMM benchmark codes and runs• WRF system test plan

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Appendices

• JCSDA Scientific Projects

• Current NCEP Backup

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Scientific Projects under JCSDA

Quikscat Winds Tested with slightly positive impact As of Jan. 22, will be part of operational data

stream for use in NCEP models

TRMM Precipitation Estimates Tested and found to be useful supplement to

SSM/I data Ingested by operational models starting

October 16, 2001

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Scientific Projects under JCSDA

• AMSU radiances– Used operationally since February 2001– Statistical correction for cloud liquid water

sensitivity being evaluated

• GOES radiances– Used operationally in both regional (since

Sept., 2000) and global systems (since 1998)– Attempts underway to obtain and use full

resolution sounder data

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Current NCEP Backup

• NCEP Model Products Backup Model Products– 12 km Eta => AFWA MM5 @ 45km– T254L64 GFS => Navy NOGAPS T239L30 – Wave Model => Navy WW3 same model– GFDL Hurricane => Navy GFDN Hurricane– RUC 20 km => FSL RUC same model 20 km– Ensembles => No backup available– WAFS Grids, Fax and Graphics => UKMET– VAFTAD => AFWA PUFF