"»--"

RECEIVEDt"J.J 1 01982 Facilitate

om contract »000 .U-81-K-000 .

M

1 IQBI - December 31i I£§ll1 HEPOBT Uanuaa ± 12_ -___-^ an—f

th:tiSSSttte

ycrni,°ues J, ~£S££ 2

SS? =3 u£^"itlhould S^r. Ssit>nsubprojects that are unge representation for participating

unifying research theme I jects an fcheand explanation) that technical reports have reports as

r ietnre 5

arS - *- indited so in the discussion and

I. Lto this summary,attachments to x-no-o

i Knowledge ReH^sentatlon' T^r, result of S^^SS^^^

as attachments. MKb i

■

t systems. The Key ithem in a

programmers who are building exp facts while storing

is its single Beoau« cf i

variety of different flexible techniques "r systems.

languages. ability to represent, second important feature of the system^it^

sentences about sentences

ONR Progress Report-1-

January 1982

M gUZM BEWESEHTAnOH SySTSI (fflSl

1

December 31, 1981)

PROGRESS REPORT (January 1, 1981

" ,Qt as it reasons„ then reason with «"»,"»»»"„ fractloe, MRS uses

£ rhraS"E the a Propriate sentences, an,

trol its own operation. _^ Maclisp andt0 COn "MRS is irnple-nted in a variety S^SUS^-^^.SInterlisp

Ron the variety of^oiec ;, ;^operating

the Vax. The *^£"? computer diagnoses and g level AI

elsewhere (e.g., autom being taught in the

system interface) and

course at Stanford.

,12 Problem Ref^nulatioS. on problem" '

MRS --i-^;TOSnrss- r-rrrfn

interfacing diff®re^ 1natinß alternatives. The Keyunderlying system.

rr-s^"^;"^^ oapahUities.

n -an and Mechanistic Reasoning

'"'"' "7^appW «to -^sentauon

primary result of W

°^d coordinated mation about alanguage called SUBTLE ana complete or P*"* its behavior, and

its teleology (arguments snow a representational deslgn .SUBTLE uses MKb as description oi explorebehavior). bU „nmber 0f terms useful in_"« d can be used to expx

includes a large number o ; ter „ for SUBTLE anamCOmpleteness or

SHAM is essentially an inte'Pto this report,

the consequences of SUBTLE language isyear<

inconsistency. AB "^ hould be available eariy

and documentation on SHAMrepresentation of various

oiitv is focussed on tne i v thesis researcnThe work on causality is

Kunz is undertaking

aspects of human physiology

ONR Progress Report-2-

January 1982

December 31, 1981)(January 1, 1981PROGRESS REPORT

. and renal pathophysiology (see

diagnostic tecnniquc be osslbie to duiio a possibleZoning "* a deeper .eve,

in existing programs.

, 2 EXPERT EXPLANATIONS PROJECT (EXPE)O

" . «rles of experiments, mostly in

The Bxpent Expxanauon pno^ect „. >£ k ledge

medlcal domains, that see;neratio„ of explanations for users

"^"s in epilation include:systems. Areab vi

.,,_,. EhP=?e are

symbolic knowledge to aid in y

reasoning from first principles.v i. nn calcium metabolism; this

ti clinical endocrinology, with an emphssi °n ealciua is

" domain has teen selected because t*= fh^^ generally well-

SISS- leading to content cuest.ons of

best to model equilibrium states." of expert decision

3) clinical oncology, cancer therapy depending upon

making regarding optimal adjustment o ' «"» in this doma ln is to

the response to prior treatment; en chal eng^ pc

better understand how to represfrom analysls of those

parameters and, in turn,

trends..2 t physiologic Modeling

SSSIS -the mode! of the mcc amsm his^t .^P-iSr.itTtLTtS-id a^e in a patient -.—^md10U

anSanSsis P--££■" therapies, and

of therapy.

ONR Progress Report-3-

January 1982

1981 - December 31 , 19PROGRESS REPORT (January 1 ,

such as mass

transport and urine Production nou ln response to pressuw B oonsistentJSS» «*-*■,£* «"e n "he P*-*? *■£«££ «S««f organconservation of mass. "*J even though they may oc

re senting andanalysis of related "tua^°^lona . In addition, by rep

ble to

systems or clinical - ££1 we believe it will P^Manipulating hasic P^clog easily « d

ues addressed in

mo del higher-level systems stressed that carise in the

functions separately. It dlcal . similar probi detailed causal

this work are no in*erent^ v whi > wlth

construction of eenable to formal mathematical

relationships aresymbolic models.

r-a»«*al Relationships,2 . 2 g^lanations from Causal_

ti

„s

we nave also "hdertf en experiments^ th £ oomponen cf^thisusing Knowledge structures othe , tlons to theresearch, largely the wo*

lques for customizing P knowledg. has

theoretical "sues regarding an expert 3yStem. , ti„

needs and expertise of the link conceptual __, s of their

been encoded 1" production rassoolated ""^""explanations from a

"riSit/r"- orU-.P

T ,ysrSSSf «-£. of «»."kn^Srr^heJ-gS24rf

fw»Uu..ti»expertise of the >f describing this wort, was

d-heihg "Sussed *Pf ndlng technical report is

in December; the con

■ for Decision Support3 Hypothesis Analysis i__

reC ently initiated

rritiduea thrfdsea5eas

t0and opinions o,' --^i^pothetical reasoning.

So!' The work raises important (—Mr . cooper ,

3 goal --arf- t: -therXns an analysis tf *Jhypothesis and ft"* £\,£ » iS *' I"dist ng 1 hes this kind of

the program has done,

problem solving focus.riecis ion support system is

-c reason for focussing - J^l^Lj.X\ V£? " "e-rarr the -fopae^ **£ diaE„osls is a

that we feel to explaln theirsystems that are

ONR Progress Report-4-

January 1982

1981 - December 31, 19&DPROGRESS REPORT Uanuary 1, W -

Mpul decision making, and JfTade by

Intra ting our efforts on «c » s only if they of thoseconcentrating considers n^ t the nature ana ' userAn analysis system assumptions aoou an arbitrary

h7Po= «" -JTiSr'SS1 and thus must

we an hypothesis andgeneral.

Tv, f the analyzer receive an wv equallyour philosophy dictates that the user J*

■ r data in a language that J- be in a form that is » laUsibilitypatient data inoutput of an analysis explanation of the pi

important that essentially patient data.

that portion dealin wi hypothesis analysis P P& disease and a lis

inconsistent,

disease hypothesis.

.. , Psychological Stu^ 2i SEienatione3 of expert

1.2.4 J^* explanation capaDii ol0gistsour interest in and sxchang., .I* „

t^h

ns to fruitful con" pvnlanation amongf llow from

Sertaklng a djtora dis * . .*£ helng

supp„rt from th «Hby physicians. Six py^ diagnostic P"..!^

TTE -tSS aloud" while solvinS 1 oonsultation W»asked to w» then askea letters ana w expertsendocrinology- They

phys ician". These way

S

STtss- - rs. a-'- —- -expert systems.

* Temporal Reasoning and Explanationed under a grant

1.2.5 ASHE- at Stanford, initiate knovin as,nr research project at. applications systemAnother « jot re- Medicine, is the app

from the National Library

ONR Progress Report-5-

January 1982

December 31, 1981)PROGRESS REPORT (January 1, 1981

. . h . nsed by cancer experts

-«- "- - "P\Zlt S5*UtSS or Lors SU*, patients^

U also *XPIIPPPI SteUigence researchers.°f i"""-631 W a „ our „ork on this contract are

- particular relevance to our wor«.tlon challenges

-:Srsinrtn\j, j£ g^jTS^Sb^-sW

domains as well, and "c are h P a= physiological m

ONCOCIN can be applied to PhOOl based Qn production rules

°j0hnKunzis undertaking.^ but ■* «"££* *££.! tr»dthose used In BO CIK y

lnfoma tion > a er " s ntat lon schemes.ssr o-3trtd .sursr~ - r £sr? setsssr^srss« -rrnpatfe^sTntS jsltj.——

■

generalize this approach.. ONCOCIS's reasoning hased "" P f ""Generating explanations

ue expecAt\0

oNen-nter significant

ne„

chal enges In g

that are acceptable t »n

UfheVasis of lh"Ye^nad^afe "hen trendiustifications for aavice approach will be inau q

« th3t riSrodrc5"l = 'we Tantic

PiPpate that multiple "^^„. (end

analysis is introducev approach of Wallis museful starting

he summarized concurrently.oai

P rovld e a usefu^outlined in the attaone We expect to begin comingpoint for approaching this prob and expl ati„n during

ITPTPH TPZIIZ the basic prototype system.

ONR Progress Report-6-

January 1982

2

1982 . March 31j. ]982)„ TOR THE NEXT QUAKER U

SCHEDULE FOR THb «

, .^shsbibb «», Bffi!-^ hepresentation doning the

-*» " "l' -^SS-^-* SS Pc *- -0h °^ iSuag/to exPress fac.

asahout

b

SSSI" - "rgSrrLppfie-lternative -thods.

works on conjunctive goal w document and

thls research is P^eef^truth maintenance ftoilWhile this re compiler anc forms It. » MBS

the r,cently fX^Xwt each step hefo" « P somewhat costly. rf g

present MRS reasons eh modlfiabiUt,. place at the anccessential to MPS s coi reasoning t . tion. The truth m

are automatically

2 ,.2

_c cc duTobthe— --ranSit^Uicent further

rtUle-Tn' the year.

.„Hf Reasoning...„ Design, an! S2ieni2H£ for describing2.1.3 Causality 2esJs_ — language for de

h„BTLE is Proving to be a P ped beyond what 1

.^/c^it "s vocabulary has n^hee^^ for

rthat^ind of aPPHea;^. J^og circuits andc

ther__ < »

non-electronic devi^ directions , largelyvocabulary in

hysiology.encoding of renai v

ONR Progress Report-7-

January 1982

(January 1, 1982 - March 31 , 1982)

SCHEDULE FOR THE NEXT QUARTER

2 .2 EXPERT EXPLANATIONS PROJECT (EXPEX)

?2 1 Physiologic Modeling'" '

the next quarter Hr. «-M-^.^^^onTcstrrourhr^HLSi wSt jra.focus on fluid balance in the

are lts causes ,<" "Srr^----S, How important are these

consequences?"f nths we win add the capability for the program

in the subsequent months we will

to respond to questions such as tneeualine'' How much- -i-^srt^:^!^^"^!,'How fast will

normalization occur?"

„. ......... .«.-"»" -!"'is.."sr sss s s. !■>descriptions or num»" k j

quantitative deviations from normal.

22 . 2 EX£lanations from Causal RelatlonshiES

Although Dr. Wallis has "J""J?n^o"**W*"' **won, and other recent "^£"tol£r°"t classes of users a* the

annroach to customizing explanatiousreasoning steps C3J» are D^"feapproacn l summarizing multiple reason 6 system [2].

SS.SS in response to an internal model

user.

v ■ analysis for Decision Support2.2.3 Hypothesis Analysis fo __

increaSing the

Over the next several months Mr. Cooperknowledge base from

vi-.Mcltion of the analysis system based on multiple disease

l;--latter will be a iiisk

ONR Progress Report-8-

January 1982

,f 1982 -March 31, "82)

SCHEIE THE HEXT OUABTEB January ,, «ill be measured by

comparing tnem .b . , Randy Teach (see below. . domain (in partiolv„ 1s

being conducted by Randy also be on that totype analysis

of endocrinology, so our . It is likely «" performance. The

dl^rders of calcium balance^ «»^Pf

system will inlt^Yt will thus be used to ret in

comparative assessmentthe system.

" i studies of ExplanatHH-2 v psychologies §H2H_ — underway and2.2.4 _^r Teach's study is now lready

The data colleotior ■ Phas., . W s^^Taseswilluill he ecmpleted duri^ the^^^^^ pnoblems and the rem data

worked on several of thfour M slx weeks. «c P

completed during the second duart

s TemHoral Reason^ and ExPi-eii-'

Hntil now our Tl^PX^i-SS^ir aJre^g Approach already in

use.

ONR Progress Report-9-

January 1982

References

References

n Blachoff, M B" Camfell 'forAoncology

I Shortliffe, IksP-Melle, W., and Jacoos, of 7th ---^ggutSt 1981--protocol f^ll^Tfr^Bl, Vancouver,

Artificial Jnteiiifi.

Domain Independent Syste£ g_ TSStoral

di^ftilion, Compute

1980. . „.: ts reasoning. .vstem which explains its

, Weiner, J-L- BLAH: * 1509-U8 (1980).3 - Artificial internet 15-19

ONR Progress Report

-10-January 1982