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Expert Team on

Operational Ocean Forecast Systems

An opportunity to determine the best way forward for OOFS

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An opportunity to determine the best way forward for OOFS

OOFS requires continuous development path to reach the quality of services users require

Consolidation and transition maturing GODAE systems to full operation

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Proposed linkage to GOV-ST

- Members of GOV-ST be encouraged to contribute/respond to ET-OOFS related activities

- ET-OOFS and GOV-ST to be jointly presented to stakeholders and international forum

- ET-OOFS and GOV-ST maintain communication on matters relating to OOFS of potential interest to either group

- TT-OSE, TT-Inter-comparison have a joint set of tasks from both groups

- An ET-OOFS member be a member of the TT’s to lead the ET-OOFS tasks within the TT

Background

Ocean forecasting requires integration within JCOMM

SPA is tasked with coordinating integration of services

Expert teams are how SPA achieves its goals

SPA proposed the formation of ET-OOFS, Dec 2007

“Objective transition mature GODAE systems full operation”

JCOMM-MAN approved the proposal

ET-OOFS has been formed to carry out the ToR

ET is under SPA and is Service focused

Staying focused

It will not be productive to debate the formation of ET-OOFS

It is critical that ET-OOFS not be obstructed in achieving its ToR. GOV-ST need to be unanimous in support for ET-OOFS

It will be critical that all members of ET-OOFS and GOV-ST provide a unified position to the stakeholders and wider community

These groups must complement and not be engaged in a competition

Debate for how best to serve the stakeholders for ocean forecasting services will occur leading up to JCOMM-IV

GODAE is familiar having a 10 year history

ET-OOFS is new and a possible source of confusion

Propose that we focus on:

Clarify JCOMM/SPA/ET structure

Determine how GOV-ST can support ET-OOFS

Propose clarification to the roles and responsibilities

Propose a joint way forward for OO

Note ET-OOFS will meet post GOV-ST to discuss the proposal

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Key themes

- coordination, regulation and management

- fully integrated observing, data management and service systems

- responsive to interdisciplinary user needs

- outreach and capacity building

- improved products for MSS, MAES, SI (WMO)

Joint WMO-IOC technical commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology

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IOC WMO

JCOMM-MAN

SPA OPA

ETOOFS ETWS

Family tree – not static, preparing for JCOMMIII

Services Programme Area

Facilitate the development and application of globally distributed marine meteorological and oceanographics services

Achieved in partnership with the user community and other programme areas

SPA is oriented towards forecasting products and associated services, user interaction and feedback

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Expert teams

Goal:

Improve the quality of services provided by the agencies of member states in their respective theme

Types of Objectives:

Develop guidance for operational agencies to encourage adoption of best practices and standards for services across agencies

Develop and maintain requirements documentation for operational systems

Monitor and evaluate effectiveness of services

Coordinate actions to address identified deficiencies in services

ET-OOFS: Current ToR – under review for JCOMMIII

ET-OOFS TOR - overview

The guide to operational ocean forecasting – WMO requires the development of guides for operational agencies who intend to support services. ET’s develop these guides.

Provide guidance to teams on the application, nomenclature, symbology and standards used by OOFS – few standards exist for presenting forecast information, symbols used or guidance on application of products. ET-OOFS will seek to coordinate the development and adoption of such standards.

ET-OOFS TOR - overviewDevelop and operate an inter-comparison framework for NRT monitoring of OOFS – ET-OOFS will work with the community to transfer mature inter-comparison metrics and observation metrics developed under GODAE and GODAE OceanView and maintain the set of metrics to be performed and reported by each operational system. ET-OOFS will report in real-time and in summary on these metrics.

Work effectively with the science community developing OOFS – ET-OOFS will attend GOV-ST and present on its activities and proposals. ET-OOFS will seek coordination with GOV-ST. It is proposed that Task teams – OSE and Inter-comparison be joint TT’s

ET-OOFS TOR - overview

Provide observation requirements for OOFS to OPA – ET-OOFS will maintain the OOFS statement of guidance. ET-OOFS will review requirements of existing systems and new systems.

Provide advice to JCOMM DMPA – ET-OOFS will coordinate the transition of data management infrastructure developed under GODAE into JCOMM DMPA.

Provide advice to Members/Member states on OOFS – ET-OOFS will respond to WMO/IOC/JCOMM etc on OOFS related matters.

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Current members: Gary Brassington (Chair), Bureau of Meteorology Jim Cummings, US NavyEric Dombrowsky, MercatorMing Ji, NOAA/NCEP Adrian Hines, UKMetOffice Masafumi Kamachi, MRI, Japan Fraser Davidson, DFO-NAFC, Canada

Secretariat and JCOMMAlbert Fisher, IOCAlice Soares, WMOPeter Dexter, Co-president JCOMMCraig Donlon Services Program AreaBob Keeley, Data Management Program AreaCandyce Clark, Observation Program Area

Current

ET-OOFS – specific tasks

The guide to operational ocean forecasting systems – Adrian Hines

Monitoring of operational systems – Jim Cummings / Gary Brassington / Masafumi Kamachi

Ocean services – Ming Ji / Fraser Davidson

Pilot task team data management – Frederique Blanc

Observational requirements – Gary Brassington

Develop workplan under JCOMM3

ET-OFS – proposed membership

Task members

1 member(chair) - Intergovernmental coordination, communication and reporting

1 member – research requirements (connection GOV etc)1 member – observational requirements (connection OPA, GSSC etc.)1 member – guide and nomenclature documentation1 member – operational system status and monitoring1 member – service status agency requirements (connection agency)1 member - user community liaison coordinator (benefit/performance)1 member – outreach and capacity building1 member – Data management and operations infrastructure1 member – MAES system integration1 member - SI system integration(A vice chair selected by the chair from the task members)

Proposed

ET-OFS - membership

Special interest members1 member – MSS system developmentGOV – chairs (officio)1 member - CAS/WGNE

Open membersMyOcean and US-IOOSOperational agencies supporting operational ocean prediction systemsOperational agencies developing ocean forecasting systemsRegional alliances companion service groups (IO-GOOS, etc…)

Statement of Guidance – demonstration of ET-OOFS role

http://www.jcomm.info/ocg3

Observations Programme Area Coordination Group

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Proposed ET-OOFS tasks for TT-OSE

- Identify deficiencies in OOFS performance and recommend observational requirements

- Prepare recommendations based on evidence of cost effective metrics for operational monitoring of operational systems. ET-OOFS to review and include in the “The guide” as part of the operational monitoring system

-Prepare a report on specific metrics for ET-OOFS to submit to the next RRR process and contribute to the “Statement of Guidance”

- Developing the cost vs benefit case. Feedback on what the TT can deliver to this process.

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Proposed ET-OOFS tasks for TT-Intercomparison

- Identify deficiencies in OOFS performance and recommend system changes

- Prepare recommendations of mature and cost efficient metrics for operational monitoring of operational systems. ET-OOFS to review and include in the “The guide” as part of the operational monitoring system

- Adapt existing metrics to standards for transition to

- Adapt frameworks to standards to facilitate transition of future metrics to operations

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Proposed linkage to GOV-ST

-Members of GOV-ST be encouraged to contribute/respond to ET-OOFS related activities

- ET-OOFS and GOV-ST to be jointly presented to stakeholders and international forum

- ET-OOFS and GOV-ST maintain communication on matters relating to OOFS of potential interest to either group

- TT-OSE, TT-Inter-comparison have a joint set of tasks from both groups

- An ET-OOFS member be a member of the TT’s to lead the ET-OOFS tasks within the TT

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Practical matters

-ET-OOFS/GOV-ST to conduct joint meetings

- Membership overlaps

- Joint day for national reporting

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Joint statement

What is a quality service – understanding user applications

What is the performance threshold?i.e., the minimum performance that delivers impact

What is a success / failure?

What is the value of success / cost of failure?e.g., Life or property saved / lost, litigious implications

What proportion can the service contribute to the outcomes?

Sophistication / experience of the users systemse.g., tolerance of bad information, multiple information sources

Predictability of the dependent products

Time – time critical, forecast horizon

Space – region, resolution

Feedback – internal and external

Mixed response to formation of a new group

ET-OOFS is required by JCOMM

If forced to The clear alternative is for GODAE OceanView to become ET-OOFS under SPA

Feedback is that GODAE OceanView wants to remain R&D focused and limit the inter-governmental process

Two groups appears to be the right way forward for this next period of OOFS. Research focused group and a service focused group.

The RRR process

CREATE AND

UPDATE

CREATE AND

UPDATE

CRITICALREVIEW

GENERATE STATEMENT OF GUIDANCE

for each application area

Statement of Guidance

Observing system

capabilities database

User requirements

database

Per

form

ance

Benefit

Per

form

ance

Observational requirements

Observational requirements

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Cos

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Benefit

Co

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Performance

SPA/ET-OOFS + GOV + Agencies

SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies + User groups

OPA+GSSC+Manufacturers+Operators

Who can help with these problems ?

SPA/ET-OOFS + Agencies

NWP surface fluxes, model error growth

Observation coverage, Observation error, Automatic QC, Analysis optimisation

Initialisation, Observation timeliness,

Ocean predictability limits

Operational performance – in practice

Optimum performance curve

Performance target