Nea

r th

e ea

rthq

uake

, th

ere

were

onl

y ~2

0 m

inut

es t

o ev

acua

te.

A “l

ocal

tsu

nam

i” fo

r Ja

pan.

Tr

avel

tim

es a

re w

ell

know

n fo

r ts

unam

is

cros

sing

the

Pac

ific

O

cean

. A

t di

stan

t lo

cati

ons,

th

ere

were

hou

rs o

f ad

vanc

e wa

rnin

g. A

“d

ista

nt t

suna

mi”

for

Ore

gon

coas

t.

Paci

fic

Oce

an T

suna

mi G

ener

ated

by

Japa

n Ea

rthq

uake

Paci

fic

Oce

an T

suna

mi G

ener

ated

by

Japa

n Ea

rthq

uake

Tsun

ami h

eigh

t m

odel

sh

ows

fore

cast

wav

e he

ight

(in

cm).

O

cean

flo

or

bath

ymet

ry a

ffec

ts

the

wave

hei

ght

beca

use

of

refl

ecti

ons

and

refr

acti

ons

from

se

aflo

or f

eatu

res

and

isla

nds.

Tsun

ami e

vacu

atio

ns w

ere

orde

red

for

Haw

aii,

Ore

gon,

and

nor

ther

n Ca

lifor

nia

but

not

Was

hing

ton.

W

ave

heig

hts

were

acc

urat

ely

pred

icte

d.

Dee

p-oc

ean

Ass

essm

ent

and

Re

port

ing

of T

suna

mi (

DA

RT)

Peak

-to-

trou

gh w

ave

heig

ht w

as n

earl

y 2 

m

at n

eare

st D

ART

buo

y in

400

0 m

wat

er d

epth

!

Trav

el t

ime

to O

rego

n an

d W

ashi

ngto

n co

ast

was

abou

t 9

hour

s.

Larg

est

wave

s af

fect

ed O

R an

d CA

M

AN

Y ho

urs

afte

r fi

rst

wave

s ar

rive

d.

Paci

fic

Oce

an T

suna

mi G

ener

ated

by

Japa

n Ea

rthq

uake

Abo

ut f

our

hour

s tr

avel

tim

e to

Ore

gon

Coas

t.

Tsun

ami f

rom

196

4 A

lask

a EQ

kill

ed 4

ch

ildre

n on

Bev

erly

Be

ach.

The

larg

est

of

28 d

ista

nt t

suna

mis

to

affe

ct O

rego

n co

ast

sinc

e 18

54.

Sign

ific

ant

dam

age

in

Seas

ide

and

Cann

on

Beac

h. M

ajor

de

stru

ctio

n an

d 13

de

aths

in C

resc

ent

City

, CA

.

Paci

fic

Oce

an T

suna

mi G

ener

ated

by

Ala

ska

Eart

hqua

ke

Brid

ge o

ver

Elk

Cree

k (n

ow E

cola

Cr

eek)

des

troy

ed

and

disp

lace

d 30

0 m

ups

trea

m.

Hou

se t

orn

from

fo

unda

tion

and

di

spla

ced

400

m

upst

ream

.

Dam

age

in C

anno

n Be

ach

from

196

4 A

lask

a Ts

unam

i

From

Pri

est

and

othe

rs, D

OGA

MI

Spec

ial P

aper

41,

2009

.

Dis

tant

Ts

unam

i In

unda

tion

M

ap f

or

Band

on,

Ore

gon

Tsun

ami E

vacu

atio

n M

ap

for

Band

on, O

rego

n

Dis

tant

tsu

nam

i eva

cuat

ion

zone

det

erm

ined

fro

m

max

imum

Ala

ska

tsun

ami.

Loca

l Tsu

nam

i Eva

cuat

ion

Zone

det

erm

ined

fro

m

max

imum

Cas

cadi

a ts

unam

i.

Past

Gre

at C

asca

dia

Eart

hqua

kes

and

Tsun

amis

Juan

de

Fuca

sub

duct

s be

neat

h Pa

cifi

c N

orth

west

por

tion

of

Nor

th A

mer

ican

Pla

te a

t Ca

scad

ia s

ubdu

ctio

n zo

ne.

Last

gre

at C

asca

dia

eart

hqua

ke o

ccur

red

on

Janu

ary

26, 1

700

at a

bout

9:0

0 PM

loca

l tim

e.

Ana

logo

us t

o Su

mat

ra 2

004,

Chi

le 2

010,

and

Toh

oku,

Ja

pan

2011

gre

at e

arth

quak

es.

Fbdd

bhh

Piff

iN

hh

Som

e Co

ast

Are

as N

ow B

elow

Sea

Lev

el

Yuri

age

Bef

ore

A

fter

• 

Som

e ar

eas

that

wer

e ab

ove

sea

leve

l on

mar

ch 1

0

drop

ped

belo

w se

a le

vel o

n M

arch

11,

201

1. • 

This

als

o ha

ppen

ed a

long

the

Was

hing

ton

- O

rego

n co

ast

duri

ng t

he 1

700

AD

gre

at C

asca

dia

eart

hqua

ke.

Dro

wned

For

ests

of

Coas

tal

Ore

gon

and

Was

hing

ton

Coas

tal “

drow

ned

fore

sts”

rec

ord

the

hist

ory

of s

low

uplif

t be

twee

n an

d su

dden

sub

side

nce

duri

ng g

reat

Cas

cadi

a ea

rthq

uake

s.

Ghos

t fo

rest

on

Copa

lis R

iver

Br

ian

Atw

ater

, USG

S Se

attl

e

Dro

wned

For

ests

of

Coas

tal

Ore

gon

and

Was

hing

ton

Tree

s in

“dro

wned

for

ests

” nea

r sh

ore

died

whe

n th

e gr

ound

dro

pped

an

d se

awat

er k

illed

the

tre

es. C

ompa

re r

ings

fro

m v

icti

m t

rees

wit

h ri

ngs

from

wit

ness

tre

es o

n hi

gher

gro

und.

Re

sult

: Tre

es d

ied

betw

een

fall

1699

and

spr

ing

1700

.

Dav

id Y

amag

uchi

Thre

e-La

yer

Cake

of

Ca

scad

ia T

suna

mi G

eolo

gy

Org

anic

-ric

h fo

rest

soi

l cov

ered

by

tsun

ami

sand

the

n in

tert

idal

mud

and

cla

y on

top

.

Nia

wiak

um R

iver

eas

t of

Will

apa

Bay

Cupc

ake

Geolog

y

inla

nd

Clum

p of

mar

sh g

rass

Mul

tipl

e sa

nd la

yers

. O

ne f

or e

ach

wave

of

the

tsun

ami!

Casc

adia

Tsu

nam

i Geo

logy

Mak

ing

a Gh

ost

Fore

st

Nia

wiak

um R

iver

, eas

t of

Will

apa

Bay,

WA

.

Buri

ed F

ores

t So

ils

1700

AD

860(

?) A

D

Ave

rage

tim

e be

twee

n ea

rthq

uake

s =

Recu

rren

ce t

ime.

Re

curr

ence

tim

e fo

r Gr

eat

Casc

adia

EQ

s =

500

year

s.

We

are

at 3

13 y

ears

and

cou

ntin

g.

Rece

nt G

reat

Cas

cadi

a Ea

rthq

uake

s

Cas

cadi

a Ts

unam

i Geo

logy

Sto

rylin

e G

reat

ear

thqu

ake

Janu

ary

26, 1

700

@ 9

PM

Ghos

t fo

rest

s, b

urie

d so

ils, d

iato

ms,

tsu

nam

i san

d sh

eets

, liq

uefa

ctio

n, t

urbi

dite

s, N

ativ

e A

mer

ican

or

al h

isto

ry, a

nd w

ritt

en J

apan

ese

hist

ory.

Inte

rtid

al m

ud &

cla

y

Tsun

ami s

and

Fore

st s

oil

Sedi

men

t de

posi

ted

on

cont

inen

tal s

helf

can

sur

ge

down

sub

mar

ine

cany

ons

in

turb

idit

y cu

rren

ts. T

he

resu

ltin

g “t

urbi

dite

” lay

er

has

coar

se s

and

on b

otto

m

and

fine

cla

y on

top

.

Turb

idit

es in

Mar

ine

Sedi

men

t Co

res Tu

rbidite

in a

Jar

Chri

s Go

ldfi

nger

(OSU

).

Shak

ing

by g

reat

Cas

cadi

a ea

rthq

uake

s ca

used

tur

bidi

ty

curr

ents

. A

ges

of m

any

seaf

loor

tu

rbid

ites

mat

ch f

rom

of

fsho

re n

orth

ern

CA t

o BC

. Re

quir

es g

reat

ear

thqu

akes

th

at r

uptu

red

enti

re o

r la

rge

segm

ents

of

the

plat

e bo

unda

ry.

Turb

idit

es in

Mar

ine

Sedi

men

t Co

res

Turb

idit

es: T

he M

ovie

Plat

e Bo

unda

ry O

bser

vato

ry (P

BO)

Casc

adia

Loc

ked

and

Load

ing

Exam

ine

mot

ions

of

GPS

stat

ions

due

to

Juan

de

Fuca

- N

orth

A

mer

ica

plat

e co

nver

genc

e.

Ast

oria

Nor

thwa

rd m

otio

n

= 0.

29 in

ch/y

r

East

ward

mot

ion

=

0.33

inch

/yr Ast

oria

, OR

GPS

Obs

erva

tion

s

Tota

l mot

ion

=

0.44

inch

/yr

Tota

l mot

ion

sinc

e 17

00 A

D

= 11

.5 f

eet

Casc

adia

GPS

Ani

mat

ion

Stat

ions

on

coas

t ar

e m

ovin

g N

E fa

ster

tha

n st

atio

ns in

urb

an c

orri

dor.

Ca

scad

ia s

ubdu

ctio

n zo

ne

boun

dary

is “l

ocke

d an

d lo

adin

g” a

s it

sto

res

elas

tic

ener

gy t

hat

will

be

rele

ased

in t

he n

ext

grea

t Ca

scad

ia e

arth

quak

e.

If t

he n

ext

grea

t Ca

scad

ia

eart

hqua

ke h

appe

ns

tom

orro

w, P

acif

ic B

each

wi

ll ju

mp

5.35

met

ers

(17.

5 fe

et) s

outh

west

.

Corv

allis

Paci

fic

Beac

h

Nea

h Ba

y

Kels

o

Tum

wate

r O

thel

lo

La G

rand

e W

asco

Ti

llam

ook

New

port

Casc

adia

Loc

ked

and

Load

ing

gke

.

Casc

adia

TT

t.

Juan de Fuca Plate

GPS

Gum D

rop

GPS

rece

iver

s in

wes

tern

pa

rt o

f th

e W

illam

ette

Va

lley

and

Puge

t Lo

wlan

ds,

as w

ell a

s th

e ea

ster

n fr

inge

of

the

Coas

t Ra

nges

, m

ove

in a

“saw

toot

h pa

tter

n”.

They

mov

e N

E m

ost

of t

he

tim

e bu

t ba

cksl

ide

to t

he

SW e

very

10

to 1

6 m

onth

s.

Low-

ampl

itud

e se

ism

ic

vibr

atio

ns a

ccom

pany

the

ba

ckwa

rds

mot

ion.

Th

is is

“Epi

sodi

c Tr

emor

an

d Sl

ip”,

a m

ajor

new

di

scov

ery.

Corv

allis

Paci

fic

Beac

h

Nea

h Ba

y

Kels

o

Tum

wate

r O

thel

lo

La G

rand

e W

asco

Ti

llam

ook

New

port

Juan de Fuca Plate

Corv

allis

ic

h

Ke

Tum

wate

r

ook

wpor

t or

valK

umwa

te

Epis

odic

Tre

mor

and

Slip

Animat

ion

by J

ENDA J

OHNSO

N

Epis

odic

Tre

mor

and

Slip

Slow

slip

bet

ween

Nor

th A

mer

ican

and

Jua

n de

Fuc

a pl

ates

at

20

– 4

0 km

dep

th. A

tra

nsit

iona

l beh

avio

r be

twee

n th

e sh

allo

w lo

cked

zon

e an

d th

e co

ntin

uous

ly s

lippi

ng z

one

deep

er t

han

40 k

m.

Epis

odic

Tre

mor

and

Slip

Tw

o-Bl

ock

EQ M

odel

Epis

odic

Tre

mor

and

Slip

Animat

ion

by J

ENDA J

OHNSO

N

Mea

sure

d GP

S Ve

loci

ties

49

N

4

2 N

zone megathrust

Juan

de F

uca

plat

eco

nver

genc

edi

rect

ion

N. A

m.

plat

e

Subduction

source zoneEQ

160

km1

24

W

42

N

10 m

m/y

r

cont

inuo

usca

mpa

ign

GPS

Velo

citi

es

49

N

Wha

ts

up w

ith

sout

hwes

tern

Ore

gon?

Shou

ldn’t

ALL

the

ve

loci

ties

vec

tors

on

PNW

coa

st b

e pa

ralle

l to

Jua

n de

Fuc

a m

otio

n as

it c

onve

rges

wi

th N

orth

Am

eric

a?

Juan

de

Fuca

– N

orth

Am

eric

a co

nver

genc

e A

LON

E sh

ould

pro

duce

sim

ple

patt

ern

of v

eloc

itie

s lik

e th

is.

Com

pres

sion

of

Paci

fic

Nor

thwe

st C

onti

nent

al M

argi

n

PNW

Cru

stal

Bl

ock

Mot

ions

Thes

e cr

usta

l blo

ck

mot

ions

AD

D t

o th

e m

otio

ns p

rodu

ced

by

Juan

de

Fuca

– N

orth

A

mer

ica

conv

erge

nce.

PNW

Cru

stal B

lock

Mod

el

Crus

tal B

lock

Mot

ions

+ P

late

Con

verg

ent

Mot

ions

Conv

erge

nce

velo

citi

es in

re

d.

Crus

tal b

lock

m

otio

n ve

loci

ties

in

oran

ge.

Obs

erve

d GP

S ve

loci

ties

.

Crus

tal E

arth

quak

es in

Ore

gon

1841

- 2

002

Da

llas

Eu

ge

ne

Ne

wp

ort

Fo

ssil

Co

nd

on

Mo

ro

Th

e D

alle

s

Ho

od

Riv

er

McM

inn

vill

e

Ore

go

n C

ity

Ma

dra

s

Po

rtla

nd

Sa

int

He

len

s

Till

am

oo

k

Hill

sb

oro

Asto

ria

En

terp

rise

La

Gra

nd

e

Ba

ke

r

Va

le

Bu

rnsC

an

yo

n C

ity

Pe

nd

leto

n

He

pp

ne

r

Go

ld B

ea

ch

Gra

nts

Pa

ss

Co

qu

ille

Ro

se

bu

rg

La

ke

vie

wK

lam

ath

Fa

lls

Me

dfo

rd

Be

nd

Prin

evill

e

Co

rva

llis

Alb

an

y

Sa

lem

Co

un

ty s

ea

t

Co

un

ty lin

e

Sta

te lin

e

Fa

ult -

La

te q

ua

tern

ary

Fa

ult -

Ho

loce

ne

Ma

gn

itu

de

0.0

- 0

.9

Ma

gn

itu

de

1.0

- 2

.9

Ma

gn

itu

de

3.0

- 3

.9

Ma

gn

itu

de

4.0

- 4

.9

Ma

gn

itu

de

5.0

- 5

.9

Ma

gn

itu

de

6.0

- 6

.9

Ma

gn

itu

de

7 a

nd

hig

he

r

NE

VA

DA

CA

LIF

OR

NIA

NE

VA

DA

IDA

HO

IDA

HO

WA

SH

ING

TO

N

CU

RR

Y

BA

KE

R

JO

SE

PH

INE

KL

AM

AT

H

CO

OS

DE

SC

HU

TE

S

CR

OO

K

HA

RN

EY

LA

KE

MA

LH

EU

R

UN

ION

UM

AT

ILL

A

WA

LLO

WA

GR

AN

TL

INN

WA

SC

O

SH

ER

MA

N

HO

OD

RIV

ER

GIL

LIA

M

MO

RR

OW

CL

AC

KA

MA

S

JE

FF

ER

SO

N

WH

EE

LE

R

TIL

LA

MO

OK

LIN

CO

LN

BE

NT

ON

PO

LK

CO

LU

MB

IA

CL

AT

SO

P

JA

CK

SO

N

MA

RIO

N

LA

NE

WA

SH

ING

TO

N

MU

LT

NO

MA

H

YA

MH

ILL

DO

UG

LA

S

12

6°

12

2°

12

3°

12

4°

12

5°

12

0°

12

1°

11

9°

11

7°

11

8°

11

6°4

2°

45

°

46

°

44

°

KKl

Kla

m

Klam

ath

Falls

, 199

3

MA

RM

AR

AR

ION

AR

ION

AR

ION

AR

ION

RIO

NR

ION

RIO

NR

ION

Mt

Ang

el, 1

993

The

Nex

t Ca

scad

ia G

reat

Ear

thqu

ake

STEV

E M

ALO

NE,

UW

Pac

ific N

orth

west

Seism

ic N

etwo

rk

Loca

l Cas

cadi

a Ts

unam

i D

OGA

MI

has

publ

ishe

d Ts

unam

i In

unda

tion

Map

s ba

sed

on m

odel

ing

of

tsun

amis

gen

erat

ed b

y gr

eat

eart

hqua

kes

on t

he C

asca

dia

subd

ucti

on z

one.

Im

port

ant

fact

ors:

• 

Wes

tern

edg

e of

Nor

th A

mer

ican

pla

te.

• D

ispl

acem

ent

duri

ng g

reat

ear

thqu

akes

: H

ow m

uch?

How

dee

p? A

spl

ay f

ault

? • 

Bath

ymet

ry o

f oc

ean

floo

r on

co

ntin

enta

l slo

pe a

nd s

helf

. • 

Shor

elin

e to

pogr

aphy

.

Not

e th

at W

A c

onti

nent

al s

helf

is

wide

r th

an O

R co

ntin

enta

l she

lf.

Casc

adia

Ear

thqu

ake

Dis

plac

emen

t M

odel

s

Exam

ple

for

a “m

ediu

m” s

ize

(M8.

9) C

asca

dia

eart

hqua

ke

(500

-yea

r re

curr

ence

tim

e an

d 15

m o

ffse

t).

M1:

Sha

llow

disp

lace

men

t oc

curs

on

spla

y fa

ult.

M

2: D

ispl

acem

ent

to d

efor

mat

ion

fron

t.

M3:

Dis

plac

emen

t st

ops

a fe

w km

bel

ow t

he s

eafl

oor.

Casc

adia

Ear

thqu

ake

Vert

ical

-Off

set

Mod

els

Exam

ple

for

a “m

ediu

m” s

ize

(M8.

9) C

asca

dia

eart

hqua

ke.

M1:

Pro

duce

s 5

m u

plif

t of

sea

floo

r of

fsho

re f

rom

New

port

. M

2: P

rodu

ces

4 m

upl

ift

of s

eafl

oor

offs

hore

fro

m N

ewpo

rt.

M3:

Pro

duce

s 4

m u

plif

t of

sea

floo

r of

fsho

re f

rom

New

port

. N

ote

the

chan

ge in

sha

pe o

f up

lifte

d se

aflo

or a

rea.

Loca

l Tsu

nam

i In

unda

tion

Map

fo

r Ba

ndon

SM

= “s

mal

l” M

8.8

Casc

adia

EQ

of

9 m

dis

plac

emen

t

(300

yea

rs o

f pl

ate

mot

ion)

.

M =

“med

ium

” M8.

9 Ca

scad

ia E

Q

of 1

5 m

dis

plac

emen

t

(500

yea

rs o

f pl

ate

mot

ion)

.

L =

“larg

e” M

9.0

Casc

adia

EQ

of

23

m d

ispl

acem

ent

(7

50 y

ears

of

plat

e m

otio

n).

XL

= “e

xtra

-larg

e” M

9.1

Casc

adia

EQ

of

35

m d

ispl

acem

ent

(1

100

year

s of

pla

te m

otio

n).

XX

L =

“ext

ra-e

xtra

-larg

e” M

9.2

Casc

adia

EQ

of

40 m

dis

plac

emen

t

(120

0 ye

ars

of p

late

mot

ion)

.

Num

bers

ref

er t

o ru

ptur

e m

odel

.

Tsun

ami I

nund

ation

Map

s

Tsun

ami E

vacu

atio

n M

ap

for

Band

on, O

rego

n

Dis

tant

tsu

nam

i eva

cuat

ion

zone

det

erm

ined

fro

m

max

imum

Ala

ska

tsun

ami.

Loca

l Tsu

nam

i Eva

cuat

ion

Zone

det

erm

ined

fro

m

max

imum

Cas

cadi

a ts

unam

i.

How

Doe

s O

ffsh

ore

Bath

ymet

ry

and

Ons

hore

Top

ogra

phy

Infl

uenc

e Ts

unam

i Run

up?

Mar

ch 1

1, 2

011

Japa

n Ts

unam

i

Wav

e-Ta

nk T

suna

mi M

odel

Vert

ical

Ev

acua

tion

Bu

ildin

g in

Ja

pan.

If y

ou c

an’t

get

out,

go

up.

NO

AA

Vid

eo o

n Ve

rtic

al

Evac

uati

on f

rom

Tsu

nam

is