real time passenger centric forecast system
TRANSCRIPT
Real-time passenger-centric forecast system
PASSME CoP 16/03/2017, AmsterdamRonald J.F. Grosmann
ATM and Airport Operations
CoP - Version v2
Ronald.Grosmann @ NLR.NL
Outline
Comfortable Air transport (?)
Vision
Breakthrough: Passenger Demand Forecasting
Validation Options and Environment
Air Transport
Source: Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, YouTube channel, 2013
Passenger perspective‣ Queues
‣ Time-consuming
‣ Inaccurate information
‣ Minimal choice and control
Airport/Airline perspective
‣ High security cost
‣ Inflexible to adapt
‣ Inefficient staffing
‣ Costly disruptions
Airport: Complex Systems
Source: Jan Rothuizen
Retail
Boarding
Re-claim
Security
Immigration
Customs
Check-in
PassportControlBorder
Control
Deboarding
Passenger Journey
Source: ACI, Guidelines for Passenger Services at European Airports, 2014
Comfortable Air Transport
Airport / Airline
Cost efficient
Flexible
Adaptable to change
Passenger
No queues
Accurate information
Choice and control
Source: Future travel experience, KLM 2012
Passenger-centric operations (PCO)‣ Self-organised, handle by exception
‣ Informed decision making
‣ Enhanced passenger experience
‣ Performance driven: predictable, adaptable, and efficient
Shorten lead-time in operations, more time for leisure
Vision
Source: Martijn Zwart, Schiphol, 2013
State of Art
Source:Copyright by the respective owners
Source: Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
Beyond State of Art: Passenger Satisfaction
Hassle and conflict free, comfortable journey
Effective and efficient airport operations
Informed decision making
Breakthrough: Passenger Demand Forecasting
Breakthrough 2Creating trust
forpassenger
System for managing
baggage flows
Staff capacityadapted to
forecast
Passengerdemand
forecasting
Breakthrough 1
Informeddecision making
by passenger
Smartboardingprocess
Adaptive airportand aircraft
interiors
Breakthrough 3
Stressreduction
Individuallyadapteddevice
Breakthrough 4
Premises Process People+ +
= Passenger experience at airport
Personalisedsystems for
informed decisionmaking
PASSME WP 4 Objectives
Forecasts that allow sufficient lead-time to staff passenger-centric operations
Observations that capture at least 65% of the terminal population
Predictions of passenger-centric operations by 85% within 5-minute accuracy
Demand and capacity balancing of the passenger-centric operations by 90% of the cases
PASSME WP 4 Passenger-Demand Forecast System
Context dependent service for PAX and Staff
Informed decision-making
Absorbing disturbance
Sufficient lead-in time
Reduce waiting time
PASSME WP 4 Passenger Demand Forecast System
Observe Forecast Plan & Control
Source: Netherlands Aerospace Centre, NLR
WP 4 - Automated Work Flow
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Sensor Model Forecast Model Operator App
Validation Options
Technology Readiness Level - 6Validation in real environment, Pre-industrial solutions
Discontinuous observationsCost efficient, track and trace individual passengers
Tag, Track, and TraceGrey area, discontinuous observations
Real environmentHamburg Airport and Amsterdam Airport Schiphol
Operational Environment
Schiphol Baggage reclaim area 3Area = 270 x 190 m / Surface = 51300 m2
Focus on 5 Arrival beltsArea = 2000 m2 / Spatial limits
Connection with piers: D, E, F, GSelected observation locations
Average walking distance: 10 min.Based on Schiphol’s baggage belt allocation scheme
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