ready reckoner · alka sharma / mayank jha confederation of indian industry the mantosh sondhi...
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READYRECKONERKey Economic StatisticsMarch 2020
Economic Growth (GDP) ................................................................................Industrial Production .......................................................................................Inflation ...................................................................................................................Investment .............................................................................................................Capacity Utilization ...........................................................................................Credit Growth ......................................................................................................Non-performing Assets of Banks .............................................................Exchaange Rate ...................................................................................................Trade, foreign direct and Portfolio Inflows .......................................Mutual Funds .......................................................................................................Equity Markets ....................................................................................................Corporate Sales ...................................................................................................
CANVAS OF REVIEW1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
23
25
27
30 Years of 'Making Infrastructure Happen'
www.feedbackinfra.com
Energy Urban InfraTransportation
INFRACREATIONOPERATIONSIMPROVEMENT
End-to-end service for toll roads and ETC Cards including major maintenance and catch-up works
Also works on ‘Assured Revenue’ basis for NHAI and others
FEEDBACK HIGHWAYS OMT PVT. LTD.
Complete Operations & Maintenance of thermal, gas and solar plants
Provides pre-commissioning and commissioning services
FEEDBACK POWER O&M SERVICES PVT. LTD.
Electricity distribution across areas in Odisha and Meghalaya
Provides latest technology across infra sector in the form of innovative software offerings
FEEDBACK ENERGY DISTRIBUTION CO. LTD.
Dubai-based architectural firm
Provides integrated design services including structural engineering, landscape and construction management
DUBAI CONSULTANTS
Flagship Business of the Group
ProvidesAdvisory (A), Construction & Project Management (C), Engineering Design (E) services across multiple sectors
FEEDBACK INFRA PVT. LTD.
GDP GROWTH DECELERATES, NOMINAL GDP DECLINES SHARPLY IN 2019-20
1
5.5
6.4
7.48.0 8.3
7.0
6.1
5.0
13.813.0
11.010.5
11.811.1 11.0
7.5
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20*
GDP Growth (% Y-o-Y)
Real GDP Nominal GDP
Source: CSO; ^GDP Deflator is a weighted average of WPI and CPI
*2019-20 numbers are based on First advance estimates,
GDP Deflator^
MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RECOVERS IN JANUARY
3
Source: CSO
2.01.5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Index of Industrial Production Growth(% Y-o-Y)
IIP IIP-MfgFY19 FY20
INFLATION EASES IN FEBRUARY
5
Source: CSO, Office of Economic Advisor.
6.6
2.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Overall Inflation Rate (y-o-y, %)
CPI WPIFY19 FY20
INVESTMENT TO GDP RATIO MODERATES IN 2019-20
7
7.3 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.5 6.9 6.7 7.1
11.2 11.8 11.7 11.0 11.9 11.0 10.3 10.5
15.7 14.6 12.5 12.1 9.4 10.3 11.0 11.4
34.3 33.431.3 30.1
28.7 28.2 28.1 29.0 28.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% GDP)
Public Private Households*
Source: CSO
*Households includes Micro/SME sectors,
CAPACITY UTILIZATION DECLINES SHARPLY IN Q2’FY20
9
Source: RBI
72.071.0
74.6
71.271.8
74.175.2
73.874.8
75.9 76.1
73.6
69.1
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Capacity Utilization (%)
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
CREDIT AND DEPOSIT GROWTH MODERATES
11
Source: RBI
*Data for 20TH Dec’19
16.2
6.1
11.1 9.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Bank Credit and Deposit Growth(% Y-o-Y)
Credit DepositFY19 FY20
GROSS NPAS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN H1-FY21
13
Source: RBI Financial Stability Report--December 2019\\\ March forecast not available
5.1
7.8
9.2 9.610.2
11.510.8
9.3 9.39.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Sep
Gross NPAs to Total Advances (%)
Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep SepFY16 FY17 FY18 FY20FY19 FY21
INR-USD EXCHANGE RATE DEPRICIATES
15
Source: RBI,
70.7
71.2
69.5
69.4
69.8 69
.4 68.8
71.1
71.4 71
.0
71.5 71
.2
71.3
71.5
74.2
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
INR/USD(average for the month)
FY19 FY20
TRADE DEFICIT NARROWS IN Q3-FY20 AS IMPORTS MODERATE
17
Source: RBI, Commerce Ministry
82.0 81.5 80.6 86.0 80.9 78.4 79.8
128.7 132.9 130.7 121.7 130.1117.9 114.1
-46.7 -51.5 -50.1-35.7
-49.2-39.5 -34.3
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Exports, Imports and Trade Deficit (quarterly, USD bn)
Exports Imports Deficit
FY19 FY20
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT REMAINS STRONG
19
Source: RBI
13.1
17.0
14.115.5 15.5
20.8
14.516.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Foreign Direct Investment Gross inflows (quarterly, USD bn)
FY18 FY19 FY20
FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INFLOWS REMAIN VOLATILE
21
Source: NSDL
2.1
-2.9
2.6
4.4
-3.0
-0.9
1.1
6.7
4.6
-3.2
6.3
10.1
5.6
2.91.3
-6.0
-0.9
1.50.7 0.6
2.9
-0.5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Foreign Portfolio (debt & equity) Inflows (net, USD Bn)
Equity DebtFY18 FY19 FY20
MUTUAL FUNDS’ AUM IMPROVES IN Q3-FY20
23
Source: AMFI
959
964
1063
943
979
998
1020
1038 1185
1168
1172 12
23
1261
1306
1382
1405
1413 14
69
2127 21362286 2204 2286 2380 2425 2451
2654
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Mutual Funds: Asset Under Management (Rs ‘000 Crore)
Institutions Individuals Total InvestmentFY19FY18 FY20
EQUITY MARKETS CRASH IN MARCH
25
Source: BSE, NSE*Data till 19th Jan
32394
9468
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
26000
30000
34000
38000
42000Ju
lAu
gSe
pO
ctN
ovD
ec Jan
Feb
Mar Ap
rM
ay Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Nift
y 50
Inde
x
BSE
Sens
ex In
dex
Equity Markets: BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 Index(Daily Closing Average)
BSE SENSEX Nifty 50
FY19 FY20
CORPORATE PERFORMANCE IS SHOWING STRESS IN Q3’FY20
27
Source: CII Analysis based Ace Equity data. Sample of 2292 listed companies excluding those of oil & gas and banking & finance sector.
5.0
9.1
15.6
10.9
8.1
2.5
-3.8-2.0-15.3
54.7
71.0
29.6
32.1
0.8
-23.3
-29.3
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
PAT
Mar
gin
Net
Sal
es (%
Y-o
-Y)
Net Sales (LHS) PAT (RHS)
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