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READY RECKONER Key Economic Statistics March 2020

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Page 1: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

READYRECKONERKey Economic StatisticsMarch 2020

Page 2: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 3: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

Economic Growth (GDP) ................................................................................Industrial Production .......................................................................................Inflation ...................................................................................................................Investment .............................................................................................................Capacity Utilization ...........................................................................................Credit Growth ......................................................................................................Non-performing Assets of Banks .............................................................Exchaange Rate ...................................................................................................Trade, foreign direct and Portfolio Inflows .......................................Mutual Funds .......................................................................................................Equity Markets ....................................................................................................Corporate Sales ...................................................................................................

CANVAS OF REVIEW1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

23

25

27

Page 4: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

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Energy Urban InfraTransportation

INFRACREATIONOPERATIONSIMPROVEMENT

End-to-end service for toll roads and ETC Cards including major maintenance and catch-up works

Also works on ‘Assured Revenue’ basis for NHAI and others

FEEDBACK HIGHWAYS OMT PVT. LTD.

Complete Operations & Maintenance of thermal, gas and solar plants

Provides pre-commissioning and commissioning services

FEEDBACK POWER O&M SERVICES PVT. LTD.

Electricity distribution across areas in Odisha and Meghalaya

Provides latest technology across infra sector in the form of innovative software offerings

FEEDBACK ENERGY DISTRIBUTION CO. LTD.

Dubai-based architectural firm

Provides integrated design services including structural engineering, landscape and construction management

DUBAI CONSULTANTS

Flagship Business of the Group

ProvidesAdvisory (A), Construction & Project Management (C), Engineering Design (E) services across multiple sectors

FEEDBACK INFRA PVT. LTD.

Page 5: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

GDP GROWTH DECELERATES, NOMINAL GDP DECLINES SHARPLY IN 2019-20

1

5.5

6.4

7.48.0 8.3

7.0

6.1

5.0

13.813.0

11.010.5

11.811.1 11.0

7.5

2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20*

GDP Growth (% Y-o-Y)

Real GDP Nominal GDP

Source: CSO; ^GDP Deflator is a weighted average of WPI and CPI

*2019-20 numbers are based on First advance estimates,

GDP Deflator^

Page 6: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 7: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RECOVERS IN JANUARY

3

Source: CSO

2.01.5

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Index of Industrial Production Growth(% Y-o-Y)

IIP IIP-MfgFY19 FY20

Page 8: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 9: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

INFLATION EASES IN FEBRUARY

5

Source: CSO, Office of Economic Advisor.

6.6

2.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Overall Inflation Rate (y-o-y, %)

CPI WPIFY19 FY20

Page 10: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 11: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

INVESTMENT TO GDP RATIO MODERATES IN 2019-20

7

7.3 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.5 6.9 6.7 7.1

11.2 11.8 11.7 11.0 11.9 11.0 10.3 10.5

15.7 14.6 12.5 12.1 9.4 10.3 11.0 11.4

34.3 33.431.3 30.1

28.7 28.2 28.1 29.0 28.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% GDP)

Public Private Households*

Source: CSO

*Households includes Micro/SME sectors,

Page 12: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 13: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

CAPACITY UTILIZATION DECLINES SHARPLY IN Q2’FY20

9

Source: RBI

72.071.0

74.6

71.271.8

74.175.2

73.874.8

75.9 76.1

73.6

69.1

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Capacity Utilization (%)

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Page 14: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 15: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

CREDIT AND DEPOSIT GROWTH MODERATES

11

Source: RBI

*Data for 20TH Dec’19

16.2

6.1

11.1 9.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

Bank Credit and Deposit Growth(% Y-o-Y)

Credit DepositFY19 FY20

Page 16: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 17: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

GROSS NPAS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN H1-FY21

13

Source: RBI Financial Stability Report--December 2019\\\ March forecast not available

5.1

7.8

9.2 9.610.2

11.510.8

9.3 9.39.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Sep

Gross NPAs to Total Advances (%)

Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep SepFY16 FY17 FY18 FY20FY19 FY21

Page 18: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 19: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

INR-USD EXCHANGE RATE DEPRICIATES

15

Source: RBI,

70.7

71.2

69.5

69.4

69.8 69

.4 68.8

71.1

71.4 71

.0

71.5 71

.2

71.3

71.5

74.2

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

INR/USD(average for the month)

FY19 FY20

Page 20: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 21: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

TRADE DEFICIT NARROWS IN Q3-FY20 AS IMPORTS MODERATE

17

Source: RBI, Commerce Ministry

82.0 81.5 80.6 86.0 80.9 78.4 79.8

128.7 132.9 130.7 121.7 130.1117.9 114.1

-46.7 -51.5 -50.1-35.7

-49.2-39.5 -34.3

-100.0

-50.0

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Exports, Imports and Trade Deficit (quarterly, USD bn)

Exports Imports Deficit

FY19 FY20

Page 22: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 23: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT REMAINS STRONG

19

Source: RBI

13.1

17.0

14.115.5 15.5

20.8

14.516.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Foreign Direct Investment Gross inflows (quarterly, USD bn)

FY18 FY19 FY20

Page 24: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 25: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INFLOWS REMAIN VOLATILE

21

Source: NSDL

2.1

-2.9

2.6

4.4

-3.0

-0.9

1.1

6.7

4.6

-3.2

6.3

10.1

5.6

2.91.3

-6.0

-0.9

1.50.7 0.6

2.9

-0.5

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Foreign Portfolio (debt & equity) Inflows (net, USD Bn)

Equity DebtFY18 FY19 FY20

Page 26: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 27: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

MUTUAL FUNDS’ AUM IMPROVES IN Q3-FY20

23

Source: AMFI

959

964

1063

943

979

998

1020

1038 1185

1168

1172 12

23

1261

1306

1382

1405

1413 14

69

2127 21362286 2204 2286 2380 2425 2451

2654

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

Mutual Funds: Asset Under Management (Rs ‘000 Crore)

Institutions Individuals Total InvestmentFY19FY18 FY20

Page 28: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 29: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

EQUITY MARKETS CRASH IN MARCH

25

Source: BSE, NSE*Data till 19th Jan

32394

9468

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

26000

30000

34000

38000

42000Ju

lAu

gSe

pO

ctN

ovD

ec Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Nift

y 50

Inde

x

BSE

Sens

ex In

dex

Equity Markets: BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 Index(Daily Closing Average)

BSE SENSEX Nifty 50

FY19 FY20

Page 30: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 31: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

CORPORATE PERFORMANCE IS SHOWING STRESS IN Q3’FY20

27

Source: CII Analysis based Ace Equity data. Sample of 2292 listed companies excluding those of oil & gas and banking & finance sector.

5.0

9.1

15.6

10.9

8.1

2.5

-3.8-2.0-15.3

54.7

71.0

29.6

32.1

0.8

-23.3

-29.3

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19

PAT

Mar

gin

Net

Sal

es (%

Y-o

-Y)

Net Sales (LHS) PAT (RHS)

Page 32: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 33: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) works to create and sustain an environment conducive to the development of India, partnering industry, Government, and civil society, through advisory and consultative processes.CII engages closely with Government on policy issues and interfaces with thought leaders to enhance efficiency, competitiveness and business opportunities for industry through a wide portfolio of specialized services and strategic global linkages. It also provides a platform for consensus-building and networking on key issues. Extending its agenda beyond business, CII facilitates corporate initiatives for integrated and inclusive development across diverse domains. India is now set to become a US$ 5 trillion economy in the next five years and Indian industry will remain the principal growth engine for achieving this target. With the theme for 2019-20 as ‘Competitiveness of India Inc - India@75: Forging Ahead’, CII will focus on five priority areas which would enable the country to stay on a solid growth track. These are - employment generation, rural-urban connect, energy security, environmental sustainability and governance. Founded in 1895 and celebrating 125 years in 2020, India’s premier business association has more than 9100 members, from the private as well as public sectors, and an indirect membership of over 300,000 enterprises from around 291 national and regional sectoral industry bodies. With 68 offices, including 9 Centres of Excellence in India, and 11 overseas offices in Australia, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Indonesia, Singapore, South Africa, UAE, UK, and USA, as well as institutional partnerships with 394 counterpart organizations in 133 countries, CII serves as a reference point for Indian industry and the international business community.

Page 34: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

Copyright 2020 Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise), in part or full in any manner whatsoever, or translated into any language, without the prior written permission of the copyright owner. CII has made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information and material presented in this document. Nonetheless, all information, estimates and opinions contained in this publication are subject to change without notice, and do not constitute professional advice in any manner. Neither CII nor any of its office bearers or analysts or employees accept or assume any responsibility or liability in respect of the information provided herein. However, any discrepancy, error, etc. found in this publication may please be brought to the notice of CII for appropriate correction.

Published by Confederation of Indian Industry(CII), The Mantosh Sondhi Centre; 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110003, India, Tel: +91-11-24629994-7, Fax: +91-11-24626149; Email: [email protected]; Web: www.cii.in

Page 35: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000
Page 36: READY RECKONER · Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha Confederation of Indian Industry The Mantosh Sondhi Centre 23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India) Tel: 91 11 45771000

For any feedback & to place an advertisement please contact:

Alka Sharma / Mayank Jha

Confederation of Indian IndustryThe Mantosh Sondhi Centre

23, Institutional Area, Lodi Road, New Delhi – 110 003 (India)Tel : 91 11 45771000 / 24629994-7 • Mobile : 9810299191

Email: [email protected] / [email protected]

Reach us via our Membership Helpline: 00-91-124-4592966 / 00-91-99104 46244CII Helpline Toll Free Number: 1800-103-1244

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