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“Reaching Zeitgeist:

On Complexity, Decision Making and Participatory Foresight“

Enric Bas + Michal Pazour(University of Alicante_Spain) (Czech Academy of Sciences)

FFRC_Futures of a Complex World Conference

Turku (Finland), June-12th _2017

WHO

Enric BAS Michal PAZOUR

Professor of Social Change. Director of FUTURLAB_UA University of Alicante. Spain

“The Methodologist”

Head of Department of Strategic Studies at Technology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences

“The Practitioner”

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Foresight Networking. Main initiatives in the EA(2000-now)

EC-MAINEFP-Enlargement Futures Project (JRC/IPTS 2001)ESTO Network (JRC/IPTS, 2002)EFMN-European Foresight Monitoring Network (FP6, 2004-2008)FOR-LEARN (FP6, 2005-2008)EFP-European Foresight Platform (FP7, 2009-2012)ERAWATCH (JRC/IPTS, 2010-today)RIM Plus (2010-today)

EC-OTHERSSELFRULE-Strategic European and Latin American Foresight for Research and University LearningExchange (ALFA Programme, 2004-2007) IFA-International Foresight Academy (Marie Curie FP7, 2012-2015)

NON-ECEuropean Futurists Conference Lucerne (2004-2012)Foresight Europe Network (FEN) European Regional Foresight College (ERFC)

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WHY a new network: from Technocracy to Empathy

• 1. the mandate is developing an outline for a new effective foresight network•

• 2. being effective means helping to provide both the right questions and answers•

• 3. this implies moving to a more emphatic system to fix the existing gap•

• 4. even private companies seem to be more human-centric than public institutions•

• 5. this lack of empathy is seriously affecting EU inner stability and global influence•

• 6. so the network should integrate new procedures to generate b/u knowledge•

• 7. this is why integrating a significative critical mass (P) is essential to make the right questions•

• 8. and also delivering the right answers when requested (TT)•

• 9. but foresight experts (CG) are needed to articulate the whole process•

• 10. in order to provide knowledge transfer useful for strategic d-m and innovation

WHY an integrative Analytical Framework for Participatory Foresight?

Growing complexity = challenge for policy-making

In order to deal effectively with growing complexity policy makers need to:

better understand complex systems, their features and behaviour

respond rapidly, flexibly and in a systemic way

consider different partners, their views and needs in policy design

strengthen collective intelligence through collaboration, partnership and networks

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Does existing concept of foresight really effectively support the decision-making process?

Decision-making

Policy implementation

Strategic intelligence

(analyses, evaluations, projections)

Sense making (insight, collective

intelligence and visions)

Policy options

EMPATHY > PARTICIPATORY FORESIGHT > SENSE/PURPOSE-MAKING

EMPATHY ?Effectiveness

Human-centric approach

UX satisfaction /Design Thinking

Creative + Participatory Futures

Bottom-Up dynamics

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democraZy ? (the collapse of the institutional framework)

UK_BREXIT

Colombia_PEACE AGREEMENT

Hungary_PLEBISCITE REFUGEES

+remember 2005 referendum EU constitution

+populist cities (Rome, BCN, Mad, Cadiz…)

+the collapse of PSF (etcétera)/Socialdemocrats

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“In Brazil we must show that we can reinvent the meaning and direction of our policy; if not, discontent again take the people to the streets to protest against who knows what and for what. The challenge we face is to close the gap between the demos and the res publica, between people and the general interest, re-weave the threads that can unite the political system to the demands of society”

Fernando Henrique CardosoEx-President of BrazilMember of the Council of the XXI Century Berggruen Institut

Participatory Foresight

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a joint initiative by

FLUX-3D. A tool for CAPTURING THE ZEITGEIST

FOCUS GROUP SURVEYS

DELPHI

elitist democratic

closed

openOU

TPU

T

INPUT

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The “achylles heel” of PF

Googleization- “The narrow culture”/ Lack of DEEP KNOWLEDGE

Politics as App- “The like/dislike culture”/ Lack of COMPLEX THINKING

Immediacy-”The culture of now”/ Lack of long term VISION

Ethics of moral convictions vs Ethics of responsability–”The right brain culture”/ Lack of PRAGMATIC REASONING

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“To act according with our own moral convictions withoutworrying about the consequences of our actions is a religiouslogic, not political. The main effect is the inihibition of the actors: they exonerate themselves, becoming irresponsible”

Jose Ignacio Torreblanca

(Head of Opinion_El Pais. Spain)

(W.I.P.)

The four walls of a room: an integrativeAnalytical Framework for Participatory Foresightin Liquid Times.

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• SYSTEMS THEORY• FRACTALS THEORY• CHAOS THEORY• FUZZY LOGIC

Systems are found both in nature (body, ecosystems,..) and social life (organizations, society ,…).A system is a self-regulated whole/stucture composedwith interconnected functional parts

So, it´s about HOLISM in analysis.

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Social reality is a multidimensional system

ECONOMY

SECURITY

TECNOLOGY

CULTURE

POLITICS

ECOSYSTEMCOMMUNICATION

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• SYSTEMS THEORY• FRACTALS THEORY• CHAOS THEORY• FUZZY LOGIC

Every functional part of a system is a system in itself, ad infinitum.This means structures repeating in differentinterconnected levels.

So it´s about MULTILEVEL perspective.

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• SYSTEMS THEORY• FRACTALS THEORY• CHAOS THEORY• FUZZY LOGIC

Indeterminism as an expression of non-linear, extremelysensitive, non-proportional cause/effectThis means assuming uncertainty in prediction and extreme complexity due to interconnectivity (the butterfly effect) .

So it´s about RANDOMNESS as a pattern/”order”.

The butterfly effect (Edward Lorenz, MIT, 1972)

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• SYSTEMS THEORY• FRACTALS THEORY• CHAOS THEORY• FUZZY LOGIC

In every functional part of a system (or system), dichotomy-based approach may be unefficient.This means considering the relative context while analyzinghow a system works in order to rethink it.

So, it´s about to go beyond DICHOTOMYc thinking

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Kiitos!!!