rc emerging challenges july2013

7/27/2019 RC Emerging Challenges July2013

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National Academy of Agricultural Research ManagementHyderabad, AP, India

http://www.naarm.ernet.in

Emerging Challenges and Opportunities inEmerging Challenges and Opportunities inAgricultural Research ICAR perspective andAgricultural Research ICAR perspective and

ResponseResponse


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Driving forces of future agricultural research

agricultural scenario

food security and livelihoods security

market driven agriculture: research to innovation

sustainability concerns:

climate change - risk, adaptation, mitigation

natural resources conservation - soils, water, biodiversity, environment agricultural mechanization robotics, automation, precision agriculture

emerging sciences: nanotechnology, bioinformatics, systems biology, ecosystemsscience, biofuels; data driven science

intellectual property management and technology commercialization

agricultural knowledge systems networks of data, information, knowledge, institutions

Outline

ICAR response - new vision, mission, strategy, partnerships

Scientist response acquiring required competencies (KSA)


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Agri- outputs = f (policies, markets, technology/knowledge , stakeholder interests)

Agricultural scenario - changing context of production systems

Source: USDA, 2011

Multifunctionality of outputs :- commodities (food, feed, fibers, biofuels, medicinal products, ornamentals)

non-commodities (energy, environmental services)


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Agricultural Scenario economy

5.43%

GDP

growth 6 % 8 %

5.43%GDPgrowth 6 % 8 %


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Agricultural Scenario: Food demand (million tons)

5.43%GDPgrowth 6 % 8 %

Ramesh Chand - 2012

Pressure onfood

more food

diversifiedfood

better qualityfood

safe food


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Agricultural Scenario land resources for agriculture

Needed: Sustainable intensification of agriculture


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Agricultural Scenario water, energy, labour

Ramesh Chand - 2012

2050

5.4% 6% 8%

increase in Net area under

irrigation from current level of 63mha to 81 mha and gross irrigatedarea from 88 mha to 117 mha


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5.43%

6 %8 %

5.43%

6 %8 %

Required Increase in Resource Use Efficiency2010 to 2050

Needed:

four fold increase in land productivity

three fold increase in water productivity

doubling of energy use efficiency

six fold increase in labour productivity


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Agricultural scenario risks:oil prices, drought, pests, policies

Connections amongcommodities and prices

Corn-oil connections- Oil > up to $ 140 a

barrel led to corn for biofuel

-Financial speculation ingrains

Wheat prices affected by:

- Drought in Australia- outbreak of new wheatrust UG99- shift to livestock feed

Rice prices affected by:- Indias ban on exports- poor weather - consumer subsidies

Impact of 25% change in oil prices


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Agricultural scenario : food Inflation

Source:, Gulati, 2013


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Two

levels

Food security is the ability of all people at all times to accessenough food for an active andhealthy life.

Food security

Hunger indexSource:

IFPRI, 2008

over 40 percent inChina and India

Household

National


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Drivers of food insecurity and complexities

Source: Royal Society UK, 2009

Increasing population

Slowing of increases in agriculturalproductivity

Changing and convergingconsumption patterns

Growing demand for livestockproducts (meat and dairy),particularly those fed on grain

Increasing water and land scarcity

Adverse impacts of climate change

Growing demand for biofuels


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Food security productivity concerns yield gaps

Source Lobell et al, 2010

(Global)

Yield gaps

Source USDA, 2011

global yield variability is controlled by fertilizer use, irrigation and climate

management practices needed to close yieldgaps vary by region

meeting food security will require considerablechanges in nutrient and water management.

Mueller et al, 2012


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Source: Ramesh Chand, 2011

Food security productivity concerns TFP

India

increases in fertilizer use were dominantsources of productivity increase in greenrevolution years

increases in TFP raise efficiency of inputuse in later years

cause of concern in India is decliningTFP trends for major crops .

Source USDA, 2011


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Markets: Changing the perspective of agriculturalresearch

In the Agricultural Innovation System:knowledge generation and technologytransfer are based on complex

backward and forward linkagesbetween agricultural research,production, agro-industry andconsumers

Agricultural production systems are increasinglyaffected by:

markets/consumers/retail global integration through trade regulatory frameworks and ethical choices uncertainty of production, consumption, trade Increasing access to knowledge

National and global policy consensus : need to raise rural incomes agricultural research & technological

improvementswill continue to be prime drivers of ruralincomes

value addition in agriculture is largest untappedsource of income

Value addition links farmers with consumersand research with innovation

requires transforming NARS to NAIS


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In sectors likebiotechnologyinvestmentcapacities of private sector >>public sector

US $ million

Markets: Increasing share of private investment in research

Company Cropprotection

Seed/biotechnology

Total (R&D as %of sales)

Bayer 730 110 840 (11%)

Syngenta 500 310 810 (11%)

Monsanto 40 490 530 (10%)

Pioneer 215 312 527 (11%)

BASF 340 93 433 (10%)

CGIAR - - 428

ICAR (XI FYP) - - ~ 500

R in R&D

126

12280

79

51

257

Adapted from : Spielman, 2007


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Increasing role of private sector: Investments in the foodsector by the corporate world

Need to engage with the corporate system across the food chain

Source: Von Braun 2008


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Research focus: production-consumption chain

focus on commodities andvalue addition

add and accumulate valuefrom one link to next in thevalue chain

innovations at each linkfor improved competitiveness

addresses complex forwardand backward linkages alongvalue chain throughpublic-privatepartnerships (PPP)


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Research focus: livelihood security

Agricultural research

focus on forward and backwardlinkages among livelihoodopportunities, resources and factors atmacro and micro economic levels

partnerships with NGOs, Govt Depts

Fig Source:DFID


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Climate change

Fig Source :IPCC, 2001

Climate change (IPCC Definition): change in the state of the climate that canbe identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or thevariability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period,typically decades or longer


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The climate change process

Emissions

GHGs

Concentrationsof GHGs in atmosphere

Warming(climate forcing)

Climate change(Temp, rain, sea-level)

Impacts

Sources: transportation, energy, agriculture

(methane, Nitrous oxide, CO 2)


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Observed and simulated temperature change (IPCC, 2007)

state-of-the-art climate models, reproduce almostperfectly the last 125 years of observed temperatures.


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Predicting climate change and impacts

CONCENTRATIONSCO2, methane, etc.

HEATING EFFECTClimate Forcing.

IMPACTSFlooding, food supply, etc.

Scenarios frompopulation, energy,economics models

Carbon cycle,chemistry andhydrology models

Gas properties

Coupled climatemodels

Impacts models

CLIMATE CHANGETemp, rain, sea-level, etc.

EMISSIONS

f e e

d b a c k

s

Fig source: Srinivasan, IMD


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Scenarios IPCC (AR4)

40 scenarios grouped in 4 families - A1, A2, B1, B2

- A1: rapid growth in globalizedworld, high energy use

- A2: slow development, slowconvergence; use of renewable

energy- B1 : similar to A1;more emphasison energy conservation andenvironment (information, services)

- B2 : slow development,local solutions for sustainabledevelopment

corresponding GHG emission levels for each scenario

marker scenarios : for each family identified

IPCC AR 5 scenarios based onRepresentative ConcentrationPathways (RCPs) Radiativeforcing target levels in 2100


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Rise in CO 2 conc. and temperaturefor different IPCC scenarios

2005 - 2009, actual emissions above those for marker scenarios except A1B, butwithin range of the scenario envelope

reduction in emissions 2009 because of global economic downturn

by 2050, the global surface warming for the A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios is about thesame (1C above the reference)

temperature increases diverge significantly after 2050: A2 scenario results in highestincreases by the end of the 21 st century, about 3.5 C


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Climate projections- state-of-art

Wide range of temperature projections for SRESscenarios and RCPs of average temperatureincrease between 2090 and 2099 (Rogelj et al, 2012)

Source:Winkler et al,2011

CMIP5 provides access to a wide range of gridded data sets of climate model projections impact models are sector specific lack of integrated assessments impact models typically use only one GCM projections - account only for a limited range

of projections (outputs do not include climate model uncertainty) issues: integrated assessments; dealing with range of projections (climate uncertainty) ?


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Even With no climate change,

world prices for rice, wheat, maize,and soybeans will increase by62%, 39%, 63%, and 72%respectively between 2000 and2050, because of increasingpopulation and income growth,and biofuels

Climate change results inadditional price increases: 32 to37% for rice, 52 to 55% for maize,94 to 111% for wheat, and 11 to14% percent for soybeans.

Livestock are not directlyaffected, but effects of higher feedprices caused by climate changeare passed on to livestock

Climate change and food prices


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Calories Child malnutrition

Climate change impacts on food security

Nelson et al, 2009

prices

decline in calorie availability and per capita consumption of meat and cereals increase in prices affects household food security increase in child malnutrition


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IPCC Definitions

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable tocope with, adverse effects of climate change , including climate variability andextremes

Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climatechange and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity , and its adaptive capacity

Adaptive capacity is the degree to which the system can modify itscircumstances to move to a less vulnerable condition

Systemic impacts: Vulnerability and adaptive capacity

Multiscale and multidimensional phenomena

Vulnerability is intrinsic to the system whereas adaptive capacity isdependent on both intrinsic and exogenous factors (technology,institutions, etc)


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IPCC framework for climate change assessments

Provides basicframework for researchplanning andidentification of competenciesfor capacitybuilding


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Basmati quality

India Impacts on agriculture

Milk production

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Year

C h a n g e

i n g r a

i n y

i e l d

, %

Minimum

Maximum

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Year

C h a n g e

i n g r a

i n y

i e l

Minimum

Maximum

Wheat

Rice

Source: Aggarwal, 2002


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Low adaptive capacity : districts inBihar (Jharkhand), Rajasthan,Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh,Maharashtra, Karnataka

Biophysicalvulnerability

Socialvulnerability

Technicalvulnerability

Adaptivecapacity

India Vulnerability and adaptive capacity


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Adaptation options

Agronomy: time of planting, changes in inputs, timing, water management

New crops/varieties : drought/heat resistant

diversification

Note:

Even with adaptation poverty and hunger may not decline:

T (+ 2C) + precipitation (+) 7% GDPAgri 7% T (+ 3.5C) + precipitation (+ 15% ) GDPAgri 2.5%

Poverty Hunger (Kavikumar, 2002)

climate change is global, whereas adaptation is intensely local

uncertainties in scaling down model scenarios to local scales

adaptation is seasonal and usually considered at 3 to 20 year time horizons,whereas climate change scenarios are for far future, 2050/2100

relevance of many current adaptation studies is therefore uncertain


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Mitigation strategies

crop improvement

Crop management : nutrient management, water management,rice management, land

use change, agro-forestry - BMPs can significantly reduce emissions (intermittentirrigation and drainage reduces methane emissions by 40%; conservation tillage,fertilizer management can reduce N 2O emissions)

Grazing land management

Management of Soil organic matter

Restoration of degraded lands Livestock management : livestock feed improvements and feed management, dietary

additives, animal breeding

Waste management

Carbon sequestration soil as carbon sink zero tillage, conservation tillage

make agriculture a part of solution to climate change problem

reduced GHGs can earn carbon credits (can be offset against subsidies)

needs better understanding of processes and high traceability of BMPs

Farm Mechanization: Key Driver of


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Farm Mechanization: Key Driver of agricultural Productivity

source: MM Pandey,2011


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Trend of power availability from different sources

Source; DAC - 2012

Farm mechanization across the production


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source: MM Pandey,2011

Tillage &seedbedPreparatio

n

Sowing/Planting

FertiliserApplicati

on

Irrigation

Harvesting

PostHarvesti

ng

Inter Cultivation

Plant Protection

Mechanized Solutions for whole chain

Farm mechanization across the productioncycle

Essential for:

for sustainable intensification of agriculture addressing scarcity of agricultural labour

climate change mitigation


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Natural resources: issues for research

focus on multi functional outputs of agriculture ecosystem services

productivity + externalities (degradation soil, water, air quality impacts/ loss of productivity)

improving input use efficiencies (precision agriculture)

systems approach for assessing and evaluating ecosystem services provided byagricultural systems

integration across scales field to regional to global scales to connect local and globalprocesses

focus on soil health and water quality

focus on carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation

integrating traditional knowledge

institutional frameworks for involving farmers, rural communities in NRM and engagingwith civil society organizations

E i h l i


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Emerging technologies

progress and convergence of molecular biology, nanotechnology, computer science,control theory, precision manufacturing and measurement technologies, enables in-depth

understanding of living organisms at system-level while grounding firmly to the molecular basis

integrating new sciences and technologies into agriculture to maintain flow of newtechnologies and stay globally competitive

Many new technologies are enabling in nature integrate into all sciences

Modern information technologies allow for collection and use of many different types of agricultural data including real time data:

from soils, climate, crop and market conditions, to consumer nutrition andpreferences, gene sequences and ecological variables

Data sets are massive and present challenges of accessibility, interoperability, andpersistence.

need for better data-management strategies addressing such issues as data storage,search algorithms, analytical methods, data sharing, and data visualization.


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Knowledge as factor of production S&T strategic focus

increasing importance of knowledge as a factor of production

timely knowledge interventions at all links in the agri-supply chain:- delivery of inputs- increasing productivities and efficiencies- lowering post harvest losses- processing farm outputs to higher value foods

systems for creating, processing and communicating knowledge

designing knowledge systems: networking data, information and institutions

IP management to increase Freedom to Operate (FTO) to address fragmentedownership of IP

engage to promote acceptance by society proactive ex ante regulatory and

health and environmental impact studies to design policies, tests and regulatoryframeworks

institutional arrangements for multidisciplinary and multi-institutionalengagement including with private sector


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ICAR 2050: Vision, mission, strategy

VisionIn 2050 some 1.6 billion people have adequate, nutritous, safe and healthy

food, and adequate fibre within limits of the natural system

MissionHarness power of science and education with a human touch for higher and sustainable agricultural production.

Strategic Focus farmer first green revolution 2 while enhancing natural resources input intensive

to knowledge intensive; focus on efficiencies innovation: transform NARS to NAIS

create globally competitive human resources foster linkages : PPP, national, international address climate change concerns

ICAR 2030 Harnessing Science


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ICAR 2030 Harnessing Science

Potential of genetic enhancement: yield, resistance, animalhealth and quality

Power of biotechnology, nanotechnology

Synergies of frontier sciences: ICT, GIS, GPS

Management of natural resources: IWM, INM, ICM, IPM

Agricultural diversification Value addition during post-harvest

Management of energy and agricultural waste

Management of biorisk

Carbon accounting

Institutions and policies


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Initiate new Research Platforms

Genomics

Seed

Climate Change

Water

Conservation Agriculture GM Foods

Health Foods

Feed & Fodder

Fibre

Diagnostics and vaccines

Precision Farming

Farm mechanization

Energy

Nanotechnology High value compounds

Socio economic research

E- extension and AKM

biodiversity


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Natural Resource Management

Climate Resilient Agriculture Dryland Agriculture

Hill and Island Agriculture

Conservation Agriculture

Organic Farming

Acid Soil Management


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Crop Science

Genomics

Stress-tolerant varieties Heterosis for developing hybrids

New generation designer crop plants

Bio-fortification of staple food crops

Pre-breeding for resistance/tolerance to biotic & abioticstresses

Transgenic against biotic stress

Microbial genomics in search of new genes


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Bio-fortification of staple food crops

Pre-breeding for resistance/tolerance to biotic & abiotic stresses Transgenic against biotic stress

Microbial genomics in search of new genes

Development of functional foods and nutraceuticals

Certification standards and procedures of transgenic and GM seed Seed production agronomy in relation to climate change

Transgenic research, Gene pyramiding, nano-technology researchto support conventional breeding

Non-products development from good grains using fermentationtechnology

Crop Science (contd..)

H i l


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Horticulture

Hybrid-oriented genetic resources promotional approach

Seeds/planting materials increased availability

Rejuvenation / Replacement of unproductive orchards

Insect pest and disease management

Enhancing water and nutrient use efficiency

Protected cultivation

Precision horticulture

Post-harvest management

A i l S i


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Animal genomics

Stem cell research for animal health and production

Cloning

Marker assisted selection of qualitative and quantitative traits

Nano-technology for drug delivery

Molecular diagnostics and vaccines

Establishment of DNA, embryo, Vety. Pathgens, rumen/dairymicrobe repositories

Transgenic for pharmaceutical application Functional & nutraceutical animal products

Animal Science

Fi h i


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Fisheries

Marine Fisheries Management

Mariculture

Breed Improvement

Diversification of Species

Water Management and Bioremediation

Feed Formulations

Health Management

A i l l E i i


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Agricultural Engineering

Customized farm implements and machinery

Conservation and precision agriculture

Reduction in post harvest losses and Post harvest management

Nanotechnology for enhancing input use efficiency and valueaddition of natural fibres

Utilization of surplus agricultural residues for rural power supply Entrepreneurship Development for agro service centres and custom

hiring of farm machinery and processing equipment

R i d C i


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Required Competencies

Competencies : measurable or observable knowledge, skills andattitudes critical to success in a role/function

Emphasis on different competencies will vary with stage of career

both institutional support and individual initiative are pre-requisites

discipline competencies personal effectiveness

managing information andknowledge business orientation

Leading and managing(people, work, change)

Building linkages includingglobal linkages

Relevant competencies for NARS

Critical career paths to leadership in ICAR


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Critical career paths to leadership in ICAR

Director General

National Professor

Principal Scientist/National Fellow

Senior Scientist

Scientist/ScientistSenior Scale

Director General

DDG/Director (NI)

Director/JD(NI)/ADG

Head of Division/PC

Principal Scientist

Senior Scientist

Scientist/ScientistSenior Scale Foundation

course

Pre-RMP

EDP for RMP

leaders are needed and exist at all levels no secret formula for leadership but competencies can be acquired leadership is a combination of strategic thinking and character

Skillbuilding

Refresher Course

R f h C t f k


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Refresher Course : competency frameworkDisciplinecompetencies

Personaleffectiveness

Managinginformation

Business orientation

Core research skills : research methodology

research prioritization

literature and patentsearch

developing winningresearch proposals

research projectmanagement

research impactassessment

scientific writing andpresentation

science trends

Cognitive skills :analysis,synthesis, criticalthinking, problemsolving

Personal

characteristicsself awareness &development

relating to others

relating to teams

relating toorganization

professional ethics

Awareness anduse of IT tools : documentation

communication

Multimedia andweb tools

data analysis(SAS)

networking

managing workflow

DatabasemanagementDBMS, GIS

Awareness of research/farming/businessenvironment :policies, scenario,perspectives, initiativesissues

Orientation toOrganizationaligning work to mission,strategy, processes

Business development:

participatory stakeholder engagement (PRA/FET)

intellectual propertymanagement


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Thank You

rc emerging challenges july2013

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