RAP-ORGANONRAP-ORGANONA Red Alder Plantation Growth A Red Alder Plantation Growth

ModelModel

David Hibbs, David Hann, Andrew Bluhm, David Hibbs, David Hann, Andrew Bluhm, Oregon State UniversityOregon State University

RAP-ORGANON

• Data: OSU’s HSC and Weyerhaeuser Co • 53 research installations almost spanning

the geographic range of red alder • Full site index range• 4 planting densities• 5 thinning treatments• >10^6 observations• Up to 6 measurements from a tree• Up to 17 year old plantations

• Develop equations• Modify ORGANON model structure (time step)• Evaluation – where we are now

O R G A N O NORegon Growth ANalysis and projectiON

systemGrowth & Yield Model for

Red Alder Plantations

RAP VERSION, EDITION 9.0by David W. Hann

David E. Hibbs and Andrew A. BluhmCollege of Forestry

Oregon State University

This model was funded by:OSU Hardwood Silviculture Cooperative

[ 12-01-2010 4:23 PM ]

R E S I D U A L S T O C K T A B L E RA I3203 P204 M1 DATA FILE: i3203p204m1 [ 12-02-2010 9:04 AM ] ******************************************************************************* AT| TREES/ CF SCRIB | TREES/ CF SCRIB SPECIES YR| ACRE BA VOL VOL | ACRE BA VOL VOL ******************************************************************************* | ========== ENDING =========== | ========= 23-YR CHANGE

Red Alder 30| 312.7 153.8 6140. 20183. | -270.2 118.9 5604.8 20183.5

TOTALS: 312.7 153.8 6140. 20183. -270.2 118.9 5604.8 20183. =============================================================== Stand Density Index: 288. Relative Density Index: 0.951 Quadratic Mean Diameter: 9.5 Height of 40 Largest: 92.8 Mean Diameter: 9.3 Mean Crown Ratio: 0.253 Sum % Largest Crown Areas: 81.1

No thinningNo thinning

Thin age 7Thin age 7 R E S I D U A L S T O C K T A B L E RA I3203 P204 M1 DATA FILE: i3203p204m1 [ 12-02-2010 9:04 AM ] ******************************************************************************* AT| TREES/ CF SCRIB | TREES/ CF SCRIB SPECIES YR| ACRE BA VOL VOL | ACRE BA VOL VOL ******************************************************************************* | ========== ENDING =========== | ========= 23-YR CHANGE =

Red Alder 30| 226.8 145.9 5970. 20173.| -6.3 124.9 5629.8 20173.4

TOTALS: 226.8 145.9 5970. 20173. -6.3 124.9 5629.8 20173. ============================================================== Stand Density Index: 259. Relative Density Index: 0.851 Quadratic Mean Diameter: 10.9 Height of 40 Largest: 92.9 Mean Diameter: 10.7 Mean Crown Ratio: 0.261 Sum % Largest Crown Areas: 70.7

Thin age 5Thin age 5 R E S I D U A L S T O C K T A B L E RA I3203 P204 M1 DATA FILE: i3203p204m1 [ 12-02-2010 9:04 AM ] ******************************************************************************* AT| TREES/ CF SCRIB | TREES/ CF SCRIB SPECIES YR| ACRE BA VOL VOL | ACRE BA VOL VOL ******************************************************************************* | ========== ENDING =========== | ========= 25-YR CHANGE

Red Alder 30| 223.9 148.4 6085. 20622.| -7.3 142.5 6017.0 20622.2

TOTALS: 223.9 148.4 6085. 20622. -7.3 142.5 6017.0 20622. ============================================================= Stand Density Index: 262. Relative Density Index: 0.860 Quadratic Mean Diameter: 11.0 Height of 40 Largest: 93.1 Mean Diameter: 10.9 Mean Crown Ratio: 0.274 Sum % Largest Crown Areas: 74.0

Evaluation of RAP-ORGANON for Evaluation of RAP-ORGANON for Making Making Stand-LevelStand-Level Predictions Predictions

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

60 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Length of Growth Period

Pred

icte

d M

inus

Act

ual A

nnua

l Gro

ss B

AG

Periodic annual residuals for gross basal area increment per acre (BAG) plotted over length of growth period (1 SD and range).

Annual projectionsAnnual projections

over predicted the mortality rate by about over predicted the mortality rate by about 22%22%

under predicted survival by somewhat under predicted survival by somewhat less than one percent less than one percent

Net increments in basal area per acre and Net increments in basal area per acre and total stem cubic foot volume per acre were total stem cubic foot volume per acre were also under predicted by approximately 2 to also under predicted by approximately 2 to 3%. 3%.

Longest-possible projectionsLongest-possible projections over predicted the periodic annual over predicted the periodic annual

mortality rate by nearly 14%mortality rate by nearly 14% under predicted the periodic annual under predicted the periodic annual

survival by about 2%survival by about 2% over predicted net periodic annual over predicted net periodic annual

increments in basal area per acre and total increments in basal area per acre and total stem cubic foot volume per acre by stem cubic foot volume per acre by approximately 2%approximately 2%

over predicted periodic annual top height over predicted periodic annual top height by just a little. by just a little.

Longest-possible projectionsLongest-possible projections Even with the biases, the RAP-ORGANON was Even with the biases, the RAP-ORGANON was

able to explain able to explain 72% of the variation in the periodic annual mortality 72% of the variation in the periodic annual mortality

raterate 98% of the variation in periodic annual survival rate98% of the variation in periodic annual survival rate 78% of the variation in the periodic annual net basal 78% of the variation in the periodic annual net basal

area incrementarea increment 93% of the variation in the top height increment93% of the variation in the top height increment 85% of the variation in the periodic annual net total 85% of the variation in the periodic annual net total

stem cubic foot volume increment.stem cubic foot volume increment.

Need beta testersNeed beta testers

Available in Regular and DLLAvailable in Regular and DLL Comes with usable input filesComes with usable input files Contact:Contact:

David.hann@oregonstate.eduDavid.hann@oregonstate.edu David.hibbs@oregonstate.eduDavid.hibbs@oregonstate.edu