Research…Insight

Currently Researching for….

Qazzow

CopsForHire.com

Michelangelo

Flowboard

If, In-Market Proxies?

Else, Analogous Models?

Else, Extrapolate?

Else, Cloud?

End. OOL

Three Big Lies…(related to research)

“Our projections are conservative.”REALITY: NEVER - Divide by 3 and add a Year

“(Insert big name research firm here) says our market will be $65 billion by 2012.” REALITY: By the time research firms are accurate, it’s already happened….and crowded!

“All we have to do is get 1% of the market.”REALITY: 1% is both hard and also uninteresting at the same time.

1875

1925

1975

2025 150M

20092008

1997

19661965

Telephone 1876

Television 1928

VCR 1972

CellPhone 1983

iPod 2001

89 years

38 years

22 years

14 years

7 years

1994

Android 2009

2010< 2 years

Net3: The speed required to recognize, react to and capture a market opportunity has accelerated

What to research?

1. A research methodology2. TAM/SAM/FAS3. A full understanding of the problem4. Your sharp market entry point5. The best market entry strategy6. The 100% solution to the problem7. Competition – your unfair advantage8. 1st customer

11

22

33

44

55

66

77

88

A Methodology

Blue Ocean StrategyHarvard Planning Model / S.W.O.T.Crossing the Chasm

elim

inat

ere

duceraise

createStrong, independent brokers

Regional MLS power

Realtor control

Realtor access

Realtor services platform

Process (hassle) of getting information

Source: Blue Ocean Strategy

33

elim

inat

ere

duceraise

createRealtor control

MLS control

Market transparency

Buyer (consumer) control

Consumer access

Consumer services platform

Process (hassle) to information by consumer

Source: Blue Ocean Strategy

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S.W.O.T.

INTERNAL

EXTERNAL

PO

SIT

IVE

NE

GA

TIV

E

STRENGTHS

OPPORTUNITIES

WEAKNESSES

THREATS

• Team/Experience• Technology• Channels• Models• Time to Market Lead

• New Complimentary Markets• New Technologies• New Channels/Models• Trends/Shifts/Disruptions• Competitive Weaknesses• IP/Gov. Regulations/Privacy

• Team/Experience• Technology• Channels• Models• Competitive Vulnerability

• Economy• New Technologies• New Channels/Models• Trends/Shifts/Disruptions• Competitive Strengths• IP/Gov. Regulations/Privacy

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Bowling Pin Metaphor

eRetailBooks

eRetailConsumerElectronics

eRetailToys

eRetailVideos

eRetailMusic

eRetailHome

Improvement

Amazon

Xbox?Xbox?

Barney Dolls?Barney Dolls?

Source: Chasm Group

Desktop PCsO.S.

Games andEntertainment

Consumers

Desktop PCsAccessories

Desktop PCsApplications

EnterpriseComputing

Microsoft

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Kindle?Kindle?

Total Available Market

ServiceableAvailableMarket

First AddressedSegment

S1A2

S1A3

S2A1

S3A1

S2A2

S1A1

All market segments and geographies,

The market segments and geographies your initial product can address

The one segment and application that your product will 100% address

The adjacent market segments, applications and geographies you could potentially addressed

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Ask the next question…33

Ask the next question….33

Actual >>> Forecast

2011 2012 2013 2014

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Top 10 Needs of Humanity?

• Energy• Food• Water• Environment• Poverty• Terrorism/War• Education• Democracy• Disease• Population Control

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• Video Games • Customer Retention Software• MP3 Players• Internet Security• Bigger TV Screens• Crocs• Sneakers with blinking lights• Viagra• Lady Gaga

Curiously Missing?

Ask the next question…

Why will they buy? How will they buy?

How much will they pay? Why will they buy again?

When will they buy again? How much will they

continue to pay?

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Competition Research

• Companies competing in a related product/market• Companies using related technologies• Companies already targeting your prime market

segment but with unrelated products• Companies from other geographical areas and with

similar products• New start-up companies organized by former

employees and/or managers of existing companies

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1st Customer = Your Initial Investor

• Who is investing in your space?• Why are they investing in your space?• What are their biases? Concerns? Beliefs?• Who has just failed to invest in your space?• Which partner is most enthusiastic?• What messaging are they buying?• “Social TV” vs “Adnausium – delivering scalable

advertising solutions to integrated demand side platforms”

8

What is ?

“Yahoo is a global series of Web experiences across a variety of devices that gives people what they want. In content it

connects advertisers to an audience that is global in scope. Yahoo is all about delivering experiences to individuals that

make them engage with each other. Folks anchor on: are you a search company? A content company? A communications

company? We would like to engage with people on the things that matter most to them.”

- Chief Product Officer Blake Irving

8

FAIL

What is again?

“Listen, Yahoo is a great company that is very, very strong in content for its users, uses amazing technology to serve up what increasingly we think is going to be

the web of one. For instance, on our today module in the front page, every five minutes we have 32,000 different variations of that module. So you don’t even

know what I’m seeing—in fact, we serve a million different front-page modules a day and that’s just through content optimization. And that’s just the beginning…Customized because we know the things you’re interested in. Maybe you don’t like light entertainment; maybe you like a certain sports team, etc., etc. And our click-through rate went up twice. So the point is, people come to us to find out

what is going on with the world in a very nice, quick fashion to do their communications, email, messenger, check-in on their teens. We all know about

Yahoo finance. It’s a place where you can just get it together. It’s collated for you, it’s all the things as you’re moving, you can even get your social information there. Everybody moves through many websites in a day, Yahoo is one they

always stop at”

- Carol Bartz, CEO in a follow up effort to Irving’s attempt above

1010

DOUBLE

FAIL

And

FIRED!

it’s not about genius

most brilliant execution wins

the only bad information…

…is information that you do not have.

Research will not

prevent setbacks

Charge!

David Bluhmdavid@z2live.com@z2david