rains1 econ 4910 spring 2007 environmental economics lecture 7, the rains model memorandum no 37/99...
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RAINS 1
ECON 4910 Spring 2007 Environmental Economics Lecture 7, The RAINS modelMemorandum No 37/99
Lecturer: Finn R. Førsund
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RAINS 2
Background
Transboundary pollution First UN 1972 conference on the human
environment:
States have ...the responsibility to ensure that activities within their jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the environment of other states or of areas beyond the limits of national jurisdiction.
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RAINS 3
Background, cont.
OECD: The Polluter Pays Principle, PPP. OECD /UNECE: Convention on Long-Range
Transboundary Air Pollution, LRTRAP EMEP : Co-operative programme for the
Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe.
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RAINS 4
Results of LRTRAP The first sulphur protocol; the Helsinki Protocol,
1985, uniform reductions of 30% The RAINS model 1983 - : Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation
The second sulphur protocol; the Oslo Protocol, 1994: non-uniform reductions up to 80%
The 1999 Gothenburg Protocol to abate acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone, up to 88% reductions in 2010 compared with 1990
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RAINS 5
The RAINS model
Cost-efficient reductions of emissions of substances generating acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone for a future year
The RAINS model consists of Transport coefficients from source to
environmental receptor Target loads for each receptor Purification cost functions for a set of pollutants
emitted by a source (country, region)
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RAINS 6
Environmental receptors:EMEP grids of Europe Source: Country
Assumption: Spatial distribution of emissions constant
Receptor: A map grid of 50x50 km Consequence: many
different ecosystems within each receptor
Transfer coefficient average value for a year
over a number of years
.i
j
50 km
50 km
aij
Source
Receptor.Trajectory
Transport coefficient
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RAINS 7
Critical loads
Repeated deposition that will not create significant damage of the ecosystem in the long run
Interpretation of significant damage: Ecosystem functions ok, reproduction ok
Priority problems within a grid Cannot aggregate ecosystems Critical classification survival-no survival
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RAINS 8
Deriving environmental targets based on critical loads Too expensive to apply critical loads as
environmental objectives Deposition gap closure for a receptor
Closing the gap between a benchmark deposition do and a critical load CL5% corresponding to killing 5% of the ecosystem area
Target deposition d**
5%
*5%
( )
(1 )
o o
o
d d x d CL
d xCL x d
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RAINS 9
CL1do
Deposition gap closure illustrated
CL cumulativedistribution
Deposition/hectar
100%8
7
6
5
4
3
215%
Ecosystem area in %
CL5%d*
Gap closure
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RAINS 10
Deriving targets based on area gap closure Reducing unprotected area Aij with a certain
percentage Unprotected area: share of ecosystem area with
depositions above critical loads
Protected area: share of ecosystem area with depositions below critical loads
Finding max dj* satisfying
{ : }Uj ijS i CL d
{ : }Pj ijS i CL d
*( ) ( )(1 )
U U oj j j j
ij iji S d i S d
A x A
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RAINS 11
8
Area gap closure illustrated
CL cumulativedistribution
Deposition/hectar
100%
7
6
5
4
3
21
Ecosystem area in %
d* do
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RAINS 12
Accumulated Average Exceedance (AAE) gap closure AAE focuses on the exceedance in each
ecosystem of a grid-cell
The target for AAE as a x % gap closure
[ ( ),0] ( ),j j
ij o oj ij j j ij
i S i S
AMax d CL AAE d A A
A
* (1 ) ( ), 1,..,oj j jAAE x AAE d j R
( ) 0, ' 0 ,
( ) 0, ' 0 0 , , 1,..,
j j j j ij
j j j j ij j
AAE d AAE for d Min CL
AAE d AAE for d Min CL i S j R
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RAINS 13
8
AAE principle illustrated
CL cumulativedistribution
Deposition/hectar
100%
7
6
5
4
3
21
Ecosystem area in %
AAE* do
Exceedance