Racing Journalists’ Seminar 2003 - Friday, 22 August 2003

Track Bias The facts and how punters can use this to their advantage

Speaker : Mr J P Ridley Head of Racing Operations & Equestrian

Does track bias exist and it is a feature of Hong Kong racing?

Track bias is a feature of racing around the world, but has become a much more widely discussed topic over the last 10 to 15 years in racing circles.

What causes track bias?

There are three major factors that cause track bias.

1. The design and nature of the track

2. Usage of the track

3. Weather

1. The Design and Nature of the Track

There are many design factors which will cause a pattern of racing which can advantage or disadvantage horses.

Some of these examples are :

Small tight turning track Favours front runners

Location of starting point Starting points close to a turn favour inside drawn horse

Radius of turns and design of turn Small tight turns favour on-pace runners

Track camber (crossfalls on turns)

and in the straight

Causes bias in wet weather

The longer the straight, it changes

from an on-pace bias to an off-

pace bias

This has a major impact

Length of straight run to

winning post

Type of surface, including type

of grass

2. The usage pattern on a track will influence the performance of the track

The amount of racing in many countries has increased considerably over the last 30 years and to help overcome some of the issues associated with the increase, the movable rail was introduced.

Racing usage last 10 seasons at Happy Valley (racedays only)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

No

. of

Sta

rter

No.of Starter

Racing usage last 10 seasons, Sha Tin

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Year

No

of S

tart

er

No of Starters

Examples of usage affecting track bias

1. Location of movable rail, affects track design and the pattern of racing

2. Track conditions in regard to track wear

When the track shows signs of wear it favors back markers

Horse racing away from wear near the rail will be advantaged

3. Kick-back

When there is excess kick-back it can favour front runners

4. Track maintenance procedures eg. use of vertidrain

Straight after track renovation, the track favours front runners for the first part of the programme

3. Weather condition will influence track performance

Can favour on-pace horses- Very dry track

- Rain affected Will often favour off-pace horses

- Racing during rain When a grass track dries out quickly after rain, it will often favour leaders or on-pace runners

Track Bias Assessment in Hong Kong

The more obvious bias occurring in Hong Kong racing is at Happy Valley followed by the all-weather surface at Sha Tin while the Sha Tin turf track is less biased.

Happy Valley

It is a small tight turning track which means it is best suited to front runners or “on the pace” horses for the majority of times.

The location of the rail in the C and C+3 positions make this more pronounced due to the track design.

The location of the starting points also affects the bias and this is even more pronounced with the 1000m and 1200m starting positions and favours horses drawn close to the inside rail.

The rail configuration at Happy Valley was changed commencing February 2000 to incorporate the worked back design.

The following chart shows the comparison of winning runners before and after the introduction of the worked back rail.

Percent of runners won in each barrier

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

barrier

% r

unne

rs

old rail

worked back

Happy Valley Grass Track

Happy Valley is a typical old style city venue track and as such the size of the venue has not allowed the incorporation of transitional bends before the main bend.

This again helps favor front-runners or on-pace horses.

Sha Tin All-weather Track

Most dirt or sand based all-weather tracks favour front runners - this is more evident if the race tempo is moderate.

When the track is sealed during wet weather, these tracks become very favourable for front runners.

The track exhibits a small amount of bias, except

Sha Tin Grass Track

Fresh ground on the A track usually favours front runners for the first race programmed that meeting

1000 metres on the C and C+3 favour outside starting positions due to track design

End of season when the track is showing wear due to the loss of the rye grass and is rain affected, it favours off-pace horses

Track bias does occur and can even change during a meeting as the ground changes

Conclusion

While there are general indicators as discussed, there are not always hard and fast rules and these predictions can be wrong

Track bias is a worldwide occurrence

Understanding track design and track bias is an

important part of race form analysis

Questions & Answers