quo vadis automotive industry upcoming challenges for a...

Quo Vadis Automotive Industry –Upcoming Challenges for a Global System Supplier

Dr. Peter Pleus Schaeffler GmbH

11/05/2011

Agenda

125 Years of the Automobile1The Changing Face of the Automotive Industry2Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in Powertrain3Look beyond the Day after Tomorrow4

11/05/2011

125 Years of the AutomobileFirst steps, first statements

""I believe in the horse. I believe in the horse. The automobile is just a temporary phenomenon."The automobile is just a temporary phenomenon."Kaiser Wilhelm II. (1859-1941)

Benz Motor Vehicle, 1886

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Lohner Porsche, 1900Semper Vivus(Two combustion engines, electric wheel-hub motors, battery as temporary storage)

125 Years of the AutomobileFirst steps, first statements

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Electric starter

� Bosch 1913

Variable valve train� Fiat 1972

� Alfa 1980 (mechanical)

� Alfa 1983 (electronically controlled)

125 Years of the AutomobileExamples of pioneering patents

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Agenda


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The Changing Face of the Automotive IndustryMegatrends

Emission reduction and natural ressources availability

� Curb consumption

� Legal regulations (CO2, pollution free cities)

Shift to Asia

� Shift of sales and production capacity to Asia, especially China and India

Small is beautiful

� Downsizing even in medium, upper and luxury class

"Fight for Talents"

� Lack of engineers and specialist in countries with aging populations

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The Changing Face of the Automotive IndustryPhases of growth and consolidation

Source: Automobilproduktion, University of London, Roland Berger

1900 1950 2000 2010 2050

40,000

50

500

5,0008,000

500

30 305013 23

50 mn

800 mn

30,000

8,000

5,6005,000

Suppliers wwVehicles ww

Vehicle manufacturers ww

Proliferation ReproliferationConcentration

Phases of growth and consolidation in the automotive industry

1,500 mn?

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Level of mobility - vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants

Source: R. L. Polk & Co.

762 762

The Changing Face of the Automotive IndustryPotential for growth

2000

NorthAmerica

Japan WesternEurope

Russia ChinaBrazil IndiaSouthKorea

EasternEurope

2020

568 640

238 450

515 601

155 342

163 437

9 37

10 191

110 267

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� China will be largest single market and manufacturing location in 2025� Importance of the triad will be reduced

PKW Absatz

2000 2010 2025

PKW Produktion

2000 2010 2025

Source: Roland Berger

11%14%11% 8%9%5%

80% 53% 44% 86% 59% 44%

11% 14%11% 15%

6%6%3%

3%

22% 31% 21% 32%

The Changing Face of the Automotive IndustryMarketshift towards Asia

Passenger car sales

Passenger carproduction

2000 2010 2025 2000 2010 2025

OtherBRIChinaTriad

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The Changing Face of the Automotive IndustryTrend towards smaller vehicles

Source: J. D. Power

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

A/B segments

Total market

E/F/sport

SUV/pickup

C/D segmentsMPV/VAN

Distribution of growth across vehicle segments

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TIER 2

The Changing Face of the Automotive IndustryNetwork of Automotive Industry Innovation

TIER 1

OEMs

Basic and industrial research

Cus

tom

ers,

pub

lic

Innovators, SMBs

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� OEM – Focus on brand, design and system integration

� Supplier – Increased level of integration know-how and system understanding on one hand, but also highly specialisted components on the other

Source: McKinsey, FAST / HAWK 2015

Wertschöpfungstiefe OEM - Zulieferer

2002 2015

Werschöpfungsanteil Zulieferer

Total

Karrosserie

Fahrwerk

Interior

Antrieb

65%

77%

35% 23%

91%

77%

76%

88%

87%

82%

69%

28%34%

65%

The Changing Face of the Automotive IndustryA shift in added value

2002 2015

Real net output ratioOEM vs. Supplier

Added valueSupplier

Powertrain

Interior

Chassis

Body

Total

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The Changing Face of the Automotive IndustryFrom components to systems

Components:�Friction optimization

�Reduction in weight

Modules:�Optimized operating behaviour

�Variability

�Lightweight design

Systems:�Optimized, variable operating strategy

�Wide level of variability

�Driving comfort

Incr

easi

ng c

ompl

exity

Incr

easi

ng c

ompl

exity

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Agenda


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2010 2015 2020

Batterie elektrischer Antrieb

Plug-in Hybride u. Range Extender

Hybrid Antrieb (Mild, Full)

Optimierter verbrennungs-motorischer Antrieb,zunehmend mit Start-Stopp

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainMarket share of combustion engines

Source: CSM; McKinsey (Below 40 in 2050)

2020:� over 90% of

vehicles withcombustion engine

110mn

93mn

72mn

+29%

+18%

Market share of drive concepts

Battery electric drive

Plug-In Hybrids and Range Extenders

Hybrids (Mild, Full)

Optimized Combustion Engines, Start-Stop

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Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainStatus quo

� Over 90% of vehicles will be equipped with an IC engine in 2020

Challenge� Optimization of combustion engine for powertrain

Action areas� Friction Reduction

� Optimization of combustion process

� Valve train variability

� Direct injection

� Turbocharging

� Electric accessory units

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Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainEfficiency chain in a gasoline engine

Impact of valve train

-2%-2%

Refinery/transport

Charge cycle

Convection

Heat losses to coolant

-4%-4%

-11%-11%

-5%-5%

-25%-25%Heat losses in exhaust gas

-25%-25%

Braking losses

-3%-3%

Power train losses-2,5%-2,5%

Accessory drive-8,5%-8,5%

Friction

100% 89% 87% 32% 21% 18% 14%Crudeoil

Tank Engine Mechanical energyafter combustion

Mechanical energy

Tires Propulsion

ENERGY

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Fuel consumption due to throttlecontrol of charge cycle Typification of losses

� bLaWe

max

min

� bWW

� bPA

Throttled Dethrottled

� bLaWeFriction

Charge cycle

Process

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainThrottling losses

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Miller process� De-throttling concept

� Improved process(Charge Cooling � EIC)

ICIC

IC'IC'

Atkinson process� De-throttling concept

� Excess gas mass is pushed out during compression

ICIC

IC'IC'

Port deactivation� Swirl intake flow

� Stable and efficient combustion

SwirlSwirlportport

ChargingChargingportport

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainOptions for influencing the combustion process

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� Combination of de-throttlingand charge motion

Valve phasing

IV2IV1

Cylinder deactivation� Shift of operation point

� Reduction of throttling losses

� Improvement of high pressure process

max

min

be

be

Drag Curve

Cam profile shifting� Avoid interacting of exhaust

ports (I4 engine)

� Improvement in scavenging of residual gas

Cylinder 1 Cylinder 3 Cylinder 4

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainOptions for influencing the combustion process

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Phase shifting Duration of valve event Valve lift

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainVariability in the valve train

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Cam phasing

Variable valve train

Discrete (switchable)� Two-stage

� Tappet� Pivot element � Finger follower� Shifting cam� Roller tappet

� Three-stage� Rocker arm� Shifting cam

Continuous� Hydraulic

� Electromechanical

Continuous� Electric� Mechanical

� e.g. Valvetronic

� Electrohydraulic� UniAir


Valve lift

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Torq

ue

Engine speed

Combustion optimization(charge motion)

DD

Max. power• Full lift• Late closure• Large overlap

AA

Optimization of pumpinglosses (combustion optimization)

EE


BB

Max. torque• Maximum volumetric efficiency• Early closure (short valve event)

CC

Optimization of pumping losses

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Based on the NEDC and compared with the basic engine and a standard valve train

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainEfficiency gains for different valve train systems

Fuelsaving

Control per

Dynamic response

Variability

Variable cam timer (VCT)

Variable cam timer (VCT)

Approx. 4%

Cylinder bank

Slow

Continuous

Variable cam timer + electro-

hydraulictappet

Variable cam timer + electro-

hydraulictappet

Approx. 7%

Cylinder bank

Slow

2-stage

Variable cam timer + cam

shiftingsystem

Variable cam timer + cam

shiftingsystem

Approx. 8%

Cylinder

Medium

2-stage(3-stage)

Variable cam timer +electro-

mechanicalactuator

shaft

Variable cam timer +electro-

mechanicalactuator

shaft

Approx. 8%

Cylinder bank

Slow

Continuous

Electro-hydraulic

(intake only)

Electro-hydraulic

(intake only)

Approx. 8 -15%

Valve

Fast

Continuous

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� The Hyzem consists of an urban, an extra-urban and a highway cycle.

� Higher dynamics than NEDC.

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainCustomer-specific driving cycles

Frequency

Frequency

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Cylinder deactivation (CDA)

3-stage (cylinder sel.)

NEDC

Hyzem

-10.2%-10.2% -3.3%-3.3% -7.4%-7.4%-11%-11%100 %100 %

NEDC Hyzem

Base 2-stage(CDA)

3-stage(cylinderselective)

2-stage(CDA)

3-stage(cylinderselective)

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainFuel saving – customer specific cycle

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Thermodynamic improvements:

< 3% (diesel)< 3% (diesel)

Friction improvements:

Further improvements:

4-6%4-6%

Combustion systemoptimization

Pumping lossesGasoline

< 7% (gasoline)< 7%

(gasoline)

3-5%3-5%

5-8%5-8%

1-2%1-2%

1-2%1-2%

2-3%2-3%

Thermal management

Downsizing

Stop-start function

Friction reduction

Demand-controlledaccessories

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainOverall potential for fuel consumption savings

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� Reduction in pumping losses and optimization of combustion in the high-pressure cycle

� The variable valve train can only be assessed by using a holistic approach, which includes the control system

� The variable valve train enables downsizing and hybridization

� The driving cycle and behaviour significantly influence the savingpotentials

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainConventional powertrain with variable valve actuation

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Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainFrom components to systems

Components:�Friction optimization

�Reduction in weight

Modules:�Optimized operating behaviour

�Variability

�Lightweight design

Systems:�Optimized, variable operating strategy

�Wide level of variability

�Driving comfort

Incr

easi

ng c

ompl

exity

Incr

easi

ng c

ompl

exity

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Double clutchtransmission

� Efficiency and fun to drive combined inthe Double Clutch Transmission

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainInnovative and forward-looking transmission technologies

Approx. 2.5%

Continuouslyvariable transmission

� Stepless adjustment ofthe ratio as a basis foroptimizing the operationof combustion engines

Automatictransmission

� Operating behavior oftorque converters hasbeen optimized and weight reduced

Approx. 6 - 9% Approx. 10%(dry DC vs. 6-speed AT)

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Modules:� Hybrid clutch

� Start-Stop

Systems:� eDifferential

� eWheel Drive

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainPortfolio extension for electrified powertrais

Components:� High-speed Bearings

for electric Motors

� One-way-clutch

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Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainAutomotive applications – Combustion Engine

Application scenarios

ICE

Load profile

Citybus

Distributionvehicle

Cyclical Continuous

Hig

hLo

wLo

ad c

ase

Long-distance

truck

Passengercar

city cycle

Passenger car interurban

cycle

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Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainAutomotive applications – Start-Stop


Start-Stop

ICE

Load profile

Citybus

Distributionvehicle

Cyclical Continuous

Hig

hLo

wLo

ad c

ase

Long-distance

truck

Passengercar

city cycle


cycle

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Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainStart-Stop systems

Start-Stop Systems

� Hot engine start � Change of Mind �Air cond. during stop � Boosting

Belt-driven starter generator

Integrated RSGPendulum Tensioner

Permanentengaged starter

Crankshaft mounted

� additional starter required

� Engine start function

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Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainAutomotive applications – (Plug-in) Hybrid


Start-Stop

Hybrid

ICE

Load profile

Citybus

Distributionvehicle

Cyclical Continuous

Hig

hLo

wLo

ad c

ase

Long-distance

truck

Passengercar

city cycle


cycle

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Hybrid clutch

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainHybrid technologies

Hybrid module

� Disconnects combustion engine from the combined electric motor and automatic transmission

� Complete system comprising a hybrid clutch and an electric motor, which can be installed on automatic transmissions

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Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainAutomotive applications - Electric vehicle


Start-Stop

Hybrid

REEV

EV

ICE

Load profile

Citybus

Distributionvehicle

Cyclical Continuous

Hig

hLo

wLo

ad c

ase

Long-distance

truck

Passengercar

city cycle


cycle

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eDifferential

Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainSolutions for E-Drive

eWheel Drive

� For use in hybrid and all-electric drives

� Potential for torque-vectoring

� Individual wheel drive integrated in hub

� Integrated wheel drive allows new vehicle concepts and designs

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Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainACTIVeDRIVE setup

� Based on a conventional vehicle

� Remove all "conventional"components

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� Integration of eDifferentials

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� Integration of the battery pack and power electronics


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eDifferential

Inverter

Inverter

Batterypack

Control unit

DC/DCconverter

Charging plugBattery charger


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Today and Tomorrow – Potentials in PowertrainACTIVeDRIVE

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Agenda


11/05/2011

Look beyond the Day after TomorrowThe era of diversity

Com

bust

ion

engi

ne

Elec

trifi

catio

n

� Individual mobility of the day after tomorrow will be achieved by combining an optimized combustion engineoptimized combustion engine and an electrified driveelectrified drive

Start-Stop

Hybrid

REEV

EV

ICE

Load profile

City bus

Distribution vehicle

Cyclical Continuous

Hig

hLo

wLo

ad c

ase

Long-distance

truck

Passenger car citycycle

Passenger carinterurban

cycle

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� Optimization of conventional powertrains

� Downsizing and downspeeding

� Reduction in weight

� Reduction in friction

� Use of alternative fuels – CNG/LPG � BTL/GTL/"Sun Fuel"

� Hybridization according to the application profile

� E-mobility mainly in urban centers

� Setting up the infrastructure for e-mobility

"No silver Bullet""No silver Bullet"


11/05/2011


"Who"Who cares about thecares about the most necessary,most necessary,

willwill most safely achievemost safely achieve hishis goals."goals."Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749-1832)

"Wer sich dem Notwendigsten widmet, "Wer sich dem Notwendigsten widmet,

gehtgeht üüberall am sichersten zum Ziel.berall am sichersten zum Ziel.““

Together we move the world!Together we move the world!

quo vadis automotive industry upcoming challenges for a...

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