Quick Insights

KEY POINTS

■ Transportation is one of the main contributors of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and for those nations trying to sig-nificantly reduce emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement, a key part of potential solutions. In addition to CO2, diesel vehicles, which are popular in Europe as passenger and heavy-duty vehicles, emit several other pollutants, leading to poor air quality with consequences for health and the environment.

■ Similar to announcements from Norway, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and India, the UK government has an-nounced that it will prohibit the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 in order to meet nitrogen dioxide and greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.

■ The stated primary benefits for this policy relate to public health, where evidence suggests that long-term exposure to air pollution increases the risk of mortality and morbidity related to lung, heart, and circulatory conditions. This is especially acute for the very young and the elderly.

■ By making a clear policy commitment, the UK government believes this announcement will accelerate the development and deployment of electric vehicle and charging technologies by private investors, car manufacturers, and local gov-ernments in both the UK and globally.

■ The government is also targeting hydrogen as a transportation fuel for the future and is providing considerable inno-vation funds to develop and deploy the technology, with a revised strategy expected in early 2018.

Implications of the UK’s Ban on Petrol and Diesel Vehicles by 2040

RESEARCH QUESTIONWhat are the implications of the UK government’s announcement ending the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 to reduce roadside nitrogen dioxide levels?

2

INTRODUCTION

The transportation sector is one of the main contributors of CO2 emissions and therefore a target for most nations trying to significantly reduce emissions in accordance with the Paris Agreement. In addition, diesel vehicles emit harmful particulate matter (PM), volatile organic compounds (VOC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx), with the main constituent of NOx being nitrogen dioxide (NO2). These emissions can lead to poor air quality, which in turn leads to environmental and human health effects. Many initiatives have taken place over recent decades to improve air quality, and these have been successful, with dramatic declines in key air pollutants in the United States. However, in certain regions, especially near-roadway locations in urban areas, NO2 and PM concentrations may be elevated due to local vehicle emissions. While vehicle emissions have been reduced in recent years, there are concerns that the limitations of the internal combustion en-gine design mean that safe levels of emissions could be difficult to reach in dense urban areas.

NO2 causes direct adverse health effects and is a precursor for ozone and secondary PM, both of which have additional adverse health effects. Many cities in the UK are above the recommended annual average limit for NO2. Figure 1 shows a number of local authorities in the UK where forecast NO2 levels are 25% to nearly 150% higher than the legal limit of 40 micrograms per cubic meter. In London, where levels are almost 2.5 times the limit, 68% of all NOx emissions come from road transport.1

1 https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/aqeg/nd-chapter2.pdf

Figure 1: Nitrogen dioxide levels in UK areas

Source: UK Department for Food & Rural Affairs (DERFA) & UK Department for Transport (DfT), 2017

Greater LondonMiddlesbrough

HaltonBirmingham

LeedsSouthampton

DerbyNottinghamNew Forest

SheffieldRotherhamGateshead

TamesideBasildon

RushmoorGuildfordRochfordCoventry

ManchesterNewcastle

North TynesideBristolBolton

BurySurrey Heath

Bath & NE SomersetSolihuilWalsail

8060200 100

806040200 100Micrograms per cubic meter

UK local authorities withhighest forecast nitrogendioxide levels, 2017

Legal limit:40 micrograms/m3

3

PROPOSED SOLUTION

The UK government has annouced its intention to prohibit the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 as part of its “Air quality plan for nitrogen dioxide in UK.”2 This includes both passenger vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles such as vans, trucks, and buses. Though this announcement does not cover rail, the UK is already progressively electrifying its rail network. At this stage aviation and shipping are not covered, which along with rail account for around 25% of NOx emissions nationally.

Local authorities are identified as being the leaders in implementing solutions to tackle roadside pollution and encouraging alternatives supported by a range of national government policies and incentives, including:

◆ The creation of a $330 million3 implementation fund to help local authorities develop localized targeted plans to improve air quality

◆ A clean air fund that will allow local authorities to bid for additional funds for particular initiatives, such as conges-tion zones, concessionary travel, cycle lanes, and broader infrastructure changes

◆ $130 million for retrofitting and acquiring new low-emission buses

These measures are in addition to $3.5 billion of previously announced measures to improve air quality and provide cleaner transport, which include:

◆ $1.3 billion toward low-emission vehicles, including $130 million for plug-in car grants

◆ $375 million national productivity investment fund for new low-emission buses, taxis, and support of public trans-port charging infrastructure

◆ $1.5 billion toward improved walking and cycling routes

Similar announcements have been made in other European countries and globally. The French government has announced a similar plan to end the sale of petrol and diesel cars in 2040, while Norway has announced a target of allowing only electric or hybrid cars to be sold after 2025. Other countries in Europe have discussions underway to assess the feasibility of similar bans, with both the German and Dutch governments considering similar bans possibly beginning in 2030. An-nouncements from these countries are expected in 2018. Elsewhere, India has stated that no petrol or disesel cars should be sold after 2030. The announcement falls short of an outright ban, but it is expected that a range of policy mechanisms will make the internal combustion engine uncompetitive after that time.

Most vehicle manufacturers have added plug-in hybrid models to their product range, though purely electric cars remain a small segment of the market. One of the most significant recent announcements from vehicle manufacturers is from Volvo, who has stated that after 2019 they will no longer sell cars that are not electric or do not have at least mild hybridization.4 Maserati also recently announced that all cars will have some sort of electification starting with models introduced in 2019.

LONDON’S CONGESTION ZONE

The UK’s air quality plan provides permission for local authrorities to evaluate the potential for low-emission zones and con-gestion zones in city centers. If implemented, both of these may accelerate the decline of petrol and diesel vehicles before 2040. London’s congestion charge was introduced in 2003 and places a daily charge of £11.50 ($15) on drivers enter-ing the city on weekdays between 7:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. However, drivers of electric or low-emission vehicles (those that emit less than 75g/km CO2) are exempt. The system is policed through cameras on all roads entering the zone, which record registration plates and cross reference them against the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) database, which contains details of the vehicle and its emission standard classification.

2 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/air-quality-plan-for-nitrogen-dioxide-no2-in-uk-20173 At a currency exchange rate of rate of 1.34 https://www.media.volvocars.com/uk/en-gb/media/pressreleases/210058/volvo-cars-to-go-all-electric

4

Various studies have been conducted looking at the benefits of the zone with varying results. Traffic initially fell, though is now back to pre-congestion zone levels. Pollution levels have fallen, though this may be attributable to the general improve-ment in vehicle emssions standards rather than because of the congestion zone.

London also has a much larger low-emission zone (LEZ) that applies to larger vans, minibuses, trucks, and other large com-mercial vehicles and covers the majority of greater London with a daily charge of £100 ($130). The LEZ began in 2008 and a stricter standard was introduced in 2012.

Air quality levels in London remain a concern, and earlier this year the Mayor’s office annouced that after October 23, 2017, vehicles that do not meet the Euro 45 emission standard will be charged an additional “toxicity” charge of £10 per day ($13) to enter the congestion zone, effectively doubling the cost to petrol and diesel cars that were made before 2006 when the Euro 4 standard was universally adopted.

A further planned change is that an ultra low emission zone (ULEZ) that will operate 24/7 will be defined in the same area as the congestion zone. All diesel vehicles will need to meet Euro 6 standards (effectively diesel cars made after September 1, 2015) to avoid an additional £12.50 ($16) charge. The ULEZ comes into force in September 2020, though a consul-tation is underway to bring that forward to April 2019.

The congestion zone, ULEZ, and LEZ are being seen as templates that could apply to other large cities with an air quality problem. It is expected that the local authorities of other cities will seek to implement similar low (and ultra low) emission zones. Other major cities such as Munich, Stuttgart, Oslo, Paris, Madrid, Athens, and Mexico City are considering similar measures and possible bans.

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR

The ban on the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles starting in 2040 along with the anticipated introduction of low-emission zones in other city centers is expected to drive a transition toward electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. A number of gov-ernment-sponsored demonstration programs and incentive schemes to acclerate electric transportation have been in place for many years. These are felt to have been effective in promoting the current level of electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV) sales, which are currently 4.2% of all vehicle sales. This number varies from country to country; for example, 42% of Norway’s new vehicle sales in June 2017 were plug-in electric. Hydrogen is also supported through a number of projects and initiatives to accelerate hydrogen-powered vehicles and infrastructure. Most recently, the Energy Research Partnership produced a comprehensive report outlining the potential role of hydrogen in the UK energy system.6

Grid Impacts of EVs

Many distribution companies have been preparing for the expected increase in EVs and PHEVs by carrying out network assessment and demonstration projects, with one of the most notable being Low Carbon London, led by UK Power Networks with a number of partners. It had a specific workstream around the impact of the electrification of transport in London with key insights:

◆ EVs represent an additional 0.3-kW contribution to peak demand per household, which represents a significant increase on the diversified residential peak load.

◆ Modelling data from trials shows that, in a future with significant penetration of EVs, active (smart) control could have benefits for distribution networks.

◆ Trial data showed a minor effect on load growth forecasts.

◆ The most significant impact is on the low-voltage (LV) network.

◆ Notification of EV charge point installation should be mandatory.

5 https://www.theaa.com/driving-advice/fuels-environment/euro-emissions-standards6 http://erpuk.org/project/hydrogen/

5

◆ With regard to power quality, modelling tools are recommended to examine LV networks with clustered charge point installation.

The project showed that the imapct of EVs on the grid varied by time of day and day of the week (Figure 2). Application of smart technologies could help integrate and manage these profiles to minimize disruption.

In July 2017, the UK government produced its smart systems and flexibility plan7 within which EV batteries are seen as a major resource in helping the energy sector meet peak demands in an affordable way. The plan calls for standarization of public chargepoints, that they all should be smart enabled. It also calls for EVs to have the potential to provide demand-side response and storage services.

One example is Electric Nation, a large-scale publicly funded smart charging project hosted by Western Power Distribution that is believed to be the world’s largest trial of its kind. It has approximately 700 participants who have their charging au-tomatically managed to flex to local grid constraints, while ensuring that their vehicle still has a full charge when they need it. The aim is to assess network hosting capacity and user impact to avoid (or delay) costly network upgrades.

Hydrogen Powered Transportation

A number of government funded projects have taken place over recent years to accelerate the design, development, and deployment of hydrogen vehicles and refuelling infrastructure. In partnership with Honda, British Oxygen Company opened the first publicly available refueling station in Swindon (followed by stations operated by Shell), the first hydrogen double decker bus has been put into service in London, and the collaboration ‘’Hydrogen London’’ has brought together a number of large companies and organizations to accelerate hydrogen transportation and fuel cell technologies.

Figure 2: Average charge profiles per EV for different days of the week (without management)

Source: UK Power Networks, 2014

7 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/upgrading-our-energy-system-smart-systems-and-flexibility-plan

1612840 20Hour

0.45

0.40

0.35

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0

Cha

rgin

g po

wer

(kW

) Weekday

Weekend

Total

Thursday

Saturday

Sunday

6

More recently, the government has announced a competitive $30 million fund to accelerate the deployment of hydrogen vehicles and roll out more leading edge infrastructure. This will be followed by an updated national plan for hydrogen transportation to be published later in 2017 or early 2018.

In addtion to transportation applications, a number of hydrogen production projects are taking place examining the poten-tial for integration of renewables (primarily wind power) as a form of energy storage to help manage network balancing. The concept is for electrolyzers to run during excess wind production and store hydrogen for later use in transportation applications. Figure 3 shows a schematic of how and where hydrogen could be utilized in the energy sector.

EPRI’S ELECTRIC TRANSPORTATION WORK

EPRI has an extensive electric transportation research program covering all aspects of the technology and its impact on utilities:

◆ Strategic Intelligence and Fundamentals (P18X) examines:• EV market information and education• Public education and support

Figure 3: Hydrogen production and application scheme

Source: Energy Research Partnership, 2016

Electric Power Research Institute 3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, California 94304-1338 • PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, California 94303-0813 USA • 800.313.3774 • 650.855.2121 • askepri@epri.com • www.epri.com

© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Inc. All rights reserved. Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI, and TOGETHER . . . SHAPING THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY are registered service marks of the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc.

Quick Insights are developed by EPRI to provide insights into strategic energy sector questions. While based on sound expert knowledge,

they should be used for general information purposes only. Quick Insights do not represent a position from EPRI.

3002011774 September 2017

• EV industry standards leadership, support, and utility-automotive industry collaboration

◆ Technical Research and Development (P18Y) examines:• EV charging and infrastructure technology• EV grid integration• Commercial and industrial electric transportation, data collection, and analysis• Environmental impacts and analysis

◆ Technical Deployment (P18Z) examines:• Utility strategic support• Localized utility EV infrastructure, grid impact, environmental and market research, analysis and support

In addition, EPRI has recently published a number of publicly available reports:

◆ A U.S. Consumer’s Guide to Electric Vehicles, March 2017 (3002009824)

◆ A U.S. Consumer’s Guide to Electric Vehicle Charging, October 2016 (3002009442)

◆ Open Vehicle-Grid Integration Platform: General Overview, July 2016 (3002008705)

◆ Vehicle-to-Grid: State of the Technology, Markets, and Related Implementation, June 2016 (3002008935)

◆ Plug-in Electric Vehicle Multi-State Market and Charging Survey, March 2016 (3002007495)

◆ Plug-in Electric Vehicle Projections: Scenarios and Impacts, December 2015 (3002005949)

◆ Plug-in Hybrid Medium-Duty Truck Demonstration and Evaluation, August 2015 (3002006566)

CONTACT INFORMATION

For inquiries regarding the technical content of this brief or for general inquiries about EPRI’s Quick Insight Briefs, please send an email to QuickInsights@epri.com.