quarterly market review: q1 2016

Q1 Quarterly Market Review

First Quarter 2016

Quarterly Market Review First Quarter 2016

Overview:

Market Summary

World Stock Market Performance

World Asset Classes

US Stocks

International Developed Stocks

Emerging Markets Stocks

Select Country Performance

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

Commodities

Fixed Income

Global Diversification

Quarterly Topic: Free Throws

This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.

The report also illustrates the performance of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.

Market Summary

3

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: US Stock Market (Russell 3000 Index), International Developed Stocks (MSCI World ex USA Index [net div.]), Emerging Markets (MSCI Emerging Markets Index [net div.]), Global Real Estate (S&P Global REIT Index), US Bond Market (Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index), and Global Bond ex US Market (Citigroup WGBI ex USA 1−30 Years [Hedged to USD]). The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Russell data © Russell Investment Group 1995–2016, all rights reserved. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. Citigroup bond indices © 2016 by Citigroup.

Index Returns

US StockMarket


EmergingMarketsStocks

GlobalReal Estate

US Bond Market

Global Bond Market ex US

1Q 2016 STOCKS BONDS

0.97% -1.95% 5.71% 6.94% 3.03% 4.16%

Since Jan. 2001

Avg. Quarterly Return 1.7% 1.3% 2.9% 2.9% 1.3% 1.2%

Best 16.8% 25.9% 34.7% 32.3% 4.6% 5.5%Quarter Q2 2009 Q2 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q3 2001 Q4 2008

Worst -22.8% -21.2% -27.6% -36.1% -2.4% -3.2%Quarter Q4 2008 Q4 2008 Q4 2008 Q4 2008 Q2 2004 Q2 2015


4 Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from Q1 2016

These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news.

125

145

165

185

205

225

Jan Feb Mar

“China Market Drop Leads to Worries of Further Turmoil”

“Dow, S&P Off to the Worst Starts Ever for Any Year”

“Oil Skids to 12-Year Low”

“Iran Sanctions End as Deal Takes Effect”

“Bank of Japan Introduces Negative Interest Rates”

“US Budget Deficit Falls to Lowest Level since August 2008”

“Nikkei Posts Largest Weekly Percentage Drop since Financial Crisis”

“British Pound Sinks to Seven-Year Low on ‘Brexit’ Fears”

“US, China Agree to Sanction North Korea on Nuclear Program”

“US Economy Starting 2016 on Solid Footing”

“Net Worth of US Households Rose to Record $86.8 Trillion in Fourth Quarter”

“Global Currencies Soar, Defying Central Bankers”

“S&P 500 Turns Positive for the Year”

“US Dollar on Track for Worst Quarter since 2010”


5

These headlines are not offered to explain market returns. Instead, they serve as a reminder that investors should view daily events from a long-term perspective and avoid making investment decisions based solely on the news. Graph Source: MSCI ACWI Index. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Performance does not reflect the expenses associated with management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

MSCI All Country World Index with selected headlines from past 12 months

140

160

180

200

Mar-2015 Jun-2015 Sep-2015 Dec-2015 Mar-2016

Long Term (2000–Q1 2016)

0.000

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

2000 2005 2010 2015

Last 12 months

“Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500 Close at New Highs”

“Home Building Surges to Best Pace since 2007”

“Eurozone Finance Ministers Reject Greek Request for One-Month Bailout Extension”

“Iran, World Powers Reach Nuclear Deal”

“US Oil Prices Fall to Six-Year Low”

“US Consumer Prices Rise for Sixth Straight Month”

“US Second Quarter GDP Grows 3.9%”

“IMF Downgrades Global Economic Outlook Again”

“Paris Attacks Leave More than 100 Dead”

“European Markets to Finish 2015 among World’s Top Performers”

“Dow, S&P Off to the Worst Starts Ever for Any Year”

“British Pound Sinks to Seven-Year Low on ‘Brexit’ Fears”

“Net Worth of US Households Rose to Record $86.8 Trillion in Fourth Quarter”

“S&P 500 Turns Positive for the Year”

World Asset Classes

6

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Russell data © Russell Investment Group 1995–2016, all rights reserved. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Dow Jones data (formerly Dow Jones Wilshire) provided by Dow Jones Indexes. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC.

Looking at broad market indices, emerging markets outperformed developed markets, including the US. Developed markets REITs recorded the highest returns.

The value effect was positive in the US and emerging markets but negative in developed markets outside the US. Small caps outperformed large caps in the non-US markets but underperformed in the US and emerging markets.

First Quarter 2016 Index Returns (%)

8.60

7.79

5.71

5.12

3.03

1.70

1.64

1.35

0.97

0.60

0.05

-1.52

-1.95

-2.57

S&P Global ex US REIT Index (net div.)

MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index (net div.)

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div.)

Dow Jones US Select REIT Index

Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index

Russell 2000 Value Index

Russell 1000 Value Index

S&P 500 Index

MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index (net div.)

MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index (net div.)

One-Month US Treasury Bills

Russell 2000 Index

MSCI World ex USA Index (net div.)

MSCI World ex USA Value Index (net div.)

1.70

1.64

1.35

0.97

0.74

-1.52

-4.68

Small Cap Value

Large Cap Value

Large Cap

Marketwide

Large Cap Growth

Small Cap

Small Cap Growth

Ranked Returns for the Quarter (%)

US Stocks

7

First Quarter 2016 Index Returns

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Marketwide (Russell 3000 Index), Large Cap (S&P 500 Index), Large Cap Value (Russell 1000 Value Index), Large Cap Growth (Russell 1000 Growth Index), Small Cap (Russell 2000 Index), Small Cap Value (Russell 2000 Value Index), and Small Cap Growth (Russell 2000 Growth Index). World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. Russell 3000 Index is used as the proxy for the US market. Russell data © Russell Investment Group 1995–2016, all rights reserved. The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group.

The broad US equity market recorded slightly positive performance for the quarter.

Value indices outperformed growth indices across all size ranges.

Small caps underperformed large caps.

53%

US Market $22.0 trillion

World Market Capitalization—US

Period Returns (%) * Annualized

Asset Class YTD 1 Year 3 Years** 5 Years** 10 Years**

Marketwide 0.97 -0.34 11.15 11.01 6.90Large Cap 1.35 1.78 11.82 11.58 7.01Large Cap Value 1.64 -1.54 9.38 10.25 5.72Large Cap Growth 0.74 2.52 13.61 12.38 8.28Small Cap -1.52 -9.76 6.84 7.20 5.26Small Cap Value 1.70 -7.72 5.73 6.67 4.42Small Cap Growth -4.68 -11.84 7.91 7.70 6.00


8


Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI World ex USA Index), Small Cap (MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI World ex USA Value Index), and Growth (MSCI World ex USA Growth). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI World ex USA IMI Index used as the proxy for the International Developed market. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved.

In US dollar terms, developed markets outside the US lagged both the US equity market and emerging markets indices during the quarter.

Small caps outperformed large caps in non-US developed markets.

The value effect was negative in non-US developed markets using broad market indices. Large cap value indices underperformed large cap growth indices. The opposite was true in small caps; small cap value indices outperformed small cap growth indices. 0.60

-1.35

-1.95

-2.57

-3.45

-5.36

-5.78

-6.21

Small Cap

Growth

Large Cap

Value

Ranked Returns (%) Local currency US currency

37% International Developed Market $15.1 trillion

World Market Capitalization—International Developed Period Returns (%) * Annualized


Large Cap -1.95 -8.44 1.69 1.62 1.80Small Cap 0.60 1.99 5.54 3.84 3.09Value -2.57 -12.34 0.07 0.37 0.76Growth -1.35 -4.52 3.24 2.81 2.77

Emerging Markets Stocks

9


Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Market segment (index representation) as follows: Large Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Index), Small Cap (MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index), Value (MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index), and Growth (MSCI Emerging Markets Growth Index). All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. World Market Cap represented by Russell 3000 Index, MSCI World ex USA IMI Index, and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index used as the proxy for the emerging market portion of the market. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved.

In US dollar terms, emerging markets indices outperformed developed markets, including the US.

Value outperformed growth across all size ranges.

Small cap indices underperformed large cap indices.

4.69

2.73

0.80

-1.22

7.79

5.71

3.66

0.97

Value

Large Cap

Growth

Small

Ranked Returns (%) Local currency US currency

10% Emerging Markets $4.2 trillion

World Market Capitalization—Emerging Markets Period Returns (%) * Annualized


Large Cap 5.71 -12.03 -4.50 -4.13 3.02Small Cap 0.97 -9.20 -2.69 -2.56 5.08Value 7.79 -12.56 -6.46 -5.86 2.96Growth 3.66 -11.60 -2.66 -2.48 2.99

-3.73 -5.01 -5.36

-10.16

27.87 27.02

22.88 20.88

17.40 15.90

14.85 14.56

13.34 12.74 12.56

11.26 8.30 8.20

7.32 7.09

5.24 4.43 4.15

Brazil Peru

Colombia Turkey

Hungary Russia

South Africa Thailand

Chile Poland

Malaysia Indonesia

Mexico UAE

Philippines Taiwan

Czech Republic Korea Qatar India

Egypt China

Greece

Ranked Emerging Markets Returns (%)

-0.16 -0.80 -1.15 -1.41

-2.18 -2.21 -2.63

-3.61 -3.66

-4.85 -5.68

-7.85 -10.74

11.85 9.29

5.71 3.26

2.79 2.53

1.29 0.77

0.23 0.09

Canada New Zealand

Singapore Netherlands

Australia Norway

Portugal US

Sweden France Austria

Denmark Ireland

Hong Kong Germany Belgium

UK Finland

Spain Switzerland

Japan Israel

Italy

Ranked Developed Markets Returns (%)

Select Country Performance

10

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Country performance based on respective indices in the MSCI World ex US IMI Index (for developed markets), Russell 3000 Index (for US), and MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index. All returns in USD and net of withholding tax on dividends. MSCI data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Russell data © Russell Investment Group 1995–2016, all rights reserved. UAE and Qatar have been reclassified as emerging markets by MSCI, effective May 2014.

Canada recorded the highest country performance in developed markets, while Israel and Italy posted the lowest returns for the quarter. In emerging markets, Brazil and Peru recorded the highest country returns, while China and Greece recording the lowest.


Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

11


Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Number of REIT stocks and total value based on the two indices. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Total value of REIT stocks represented by Dow Jones US Select REIT Index and the S&P Global ex US REIT Index. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index used as proxy for the US market, and S&P Global ex US REIT Index used as proxy for the World ex US market. Dow Jones US Select REIT Index data provided by Dow Jones ©. S&P Global ex US REIT Index data provided by Standard and Poor's Index Services Group © 2016.

REITs in developed markets posted very strong performance for the quarter. US REITs outperformed broad market US equity indices.

59% US $625 billion 96 REITs

41% World ex US $432 billion 243 REITs (22 other countries)

Total Value of REIT Stocks

8.60

5.12

Global REITs (ex US)

US REITs

Ranked Returns (%)

Period Returns (%) * Annualized


US REITs 5.12 4.88 11.09 11.99 6.17 Global REITs (ex US) 8.60 2.53 3.46 6.58 3.49

Commodities

12


Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index is not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. All index returns are net of withholding tax on dividends. Securities and commodities data provided by Bloomberg.

Commodities were mixed during the first quarter. The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return gained 0.42%. Precious metals led the index with gold returning 16.40% and silver returning 11.87%.

Energy was the worst-performing complex. Natural gas fell 21.81%, while unleaded gas declined 11.81%. WTI crude oil was down 11.58%.

Grains were slightly positive. Soybean oil gained 10.44%, but corn fell 3.33%. Livestock was mixed. Lean hogs gained 7.30%, while live cattle fell 2.51%.

Period Returns (%)


Commodities 0.42 -19.56 -16.87 -14.15 -6.16

* Annualized

-0.19

-0.21

-0.45

-1.18

-2.51

-3.33

-4.19

-8.46

-11.58

-11.81

-21.81

16.40

12.32

11.87

10.44

7.30

4.88

2.10

1.28

0.54

Gold

Zinc

Silver

Soybean Oil

Lean Hogs

Soybean

Copper

Sugar

Heating Oil

Wheat

Aluminum

Brent Oil

Coffee

Live Cattle

Corn

Nickel

Cotton

WTI Crude Oil

Unleaded Gas

Natural Gas

Ranked Returns for Individual Commodities (%)

1.78

3.38

2.38

3.33

10-Year US Treasury

State and Local

Municipals

AAA-AA Corporates

A-BBB Corporates

Bond Yields across Issuers (%)

Fixed Income

13

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. 1. Barclays US Corporate Bond Index. 2. Barclays Municipal Bond Index. Yield curve data from Federal Reserve. State and local bonds are from the Bond Buyer Index, general obligation, 20 years to maturity, mixed quality. AAA-AA Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, AA-AAA rated. A-BBB Corporates represent the Bank of America Merrill Lynch US Corporates, BBB-A rated. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed income factor data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation (SBBI) Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Citigroup bond indices © 2016 by Citigroup. The BofA Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; © 2016 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated is a wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation.


Interest rates across the US fixed income markets generally decreased during the quarter. The yield on the 5-year Treasury note fell 55 basis points (bps) to 1.21%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note declined 49 bps to 1.78%. The 30-year Treasury bond declined 40 bps to finish at 2.61%.

The yield on the 1-year Treasury bill dipped 6 bps to 0.59%, and the 2-year Treasury note declined 33 bps to 0.73%. The 3-month T-bill increased 5 bps to yield 0.21%, while the 6-month T-bill decreased 10 bps to 0.39%.

Short-term corporate bonds gained 1.16%, intermediate-term corporate bonds returned 2.76%, and long-term corporate bonds returned 6.83%.1

Short-term municipal bonds returned 0.71% while intermediate-term munis gained 1.55%. Revenue bonds slightly outperformed general obligation bonds for the quarter.2

Period Returns (%)


BofA Merrill Lynch Three-Month US Treasury Bill Index 0.07 0.12 0.07 0.08 1.15BofA Merrill Lynch 1-Year US Treasury Note Index 0.36 0.40 0.29 0.32 1.74Citigroup WGBI 1-5 Years (hedged to USD) 1.14 1.52 1.47 1.86 3.00Barclays Long US Government Bond Index 8.06 2.80 6.04 9.52 7.88Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index 3.03 1.96 2.50 3.78 4.90Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index 3.35 -3.69 1.84 4.93 7.01Barclays Municipal Bond Index 1.67 3.98 3.63 5.59 4.86Barclays US TIPS Index 4.46 1.51 -0.71 3.02 4.63

* Annualized

0

1

2

3

4

US Treasury Yield Curve (%)

1 Yr

5 Yr

10 Yr

30 Yr

3/31/16

3/31/15

12/31/15

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

12/1988 12/1993 12/1998 12/2003 12/2008 12/2013

Growth of Wealth: The Relationship between Risk and Return

Stock/Bond Mix

Global Diversification

14


Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Index performance does not reflect expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Asset allocations and the hypothetical index portfolio returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual performance. Global Stocks represented by MSCI All Country World Index (gross div.) and Treasury Bills represented by US One-Month Treasury Bills. Globally diversified allocations rebalanced monthly, no withdrawals. Data © MSCI 2016, all rights reserved. Treasury bills © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).

These portfolios illustrate the performance of different global stock/bond mixes and highlight the benefits of diversification. Mixes with larger allocations to stocks are considered riskier but have higher expected returns over time.

0.05

0.22

0.33

0.38

0.38

100% Treasury Bills

25/75

50/50

75/25

100% Stocks

Ranked Returns (%)


100% Stocks 0.38 -3.81 6.10 5.80 4.63

75/25 0.38 -2.64 4.69 4.51 4.01

50/50 0.33 -1.61 3.20 3.12 3.20

25/75 0.22 -0.71 1.65 1.62 2.20

100% Treasury Bills 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.04 1.03

* AnnualizedPeriod Returns (%)

3/2016

100% Stocks

75/25

50/50

25/75

100% Treasury Bills

“What do you regard as the most difficult period in the financial markets during your 25 years in the investment business?” I am often asked this question, usually by people who already have a framework and opinion as a result of living through one or several market downturns. For example, many older advisors and their clients regard the 1973–1974 bear market as the toughest period in their investment lifetime. Middle-aged investors may consider the tech boom and bust of the late 1990s and early 2000s to be the bellwether event for a generation of investors who assumed they could get rich on one great stock pick. Today, just about everyone remembers the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, having experienced the anxiety of declining investment accounts themselves or knowing someone who did. The market decline in early 2016 has much of the same feel as past events. Times like these are never easy for clients or advisors, who must confront their concern that “things just might be different this time.” When in the midst of a market decline, it is natural to sense that the

volatility is lasting longer and is worse than anything before. As a result, advisors spend a lot of time talking to their clients in an effort to alleviate elevated concerns and fears. How do we find the words that might help minimize the fear and anxiety advisors’ clients feel about their investment portfolios and retirement security? As you know, no single word or story can ease their concerns—and certainly not overnight. The more effective course may be for advisors to steadily lead clients down a path from worry to calm through a conversational approach that emphasizes the importance of sticking with their plan. LINKING PROCESS TO DISCIPLINE I had the opportunity a few weeks ago to speak at an advisor’s client event in California. As I was driving to the event, I thought about how to make the presentation conversational and ensure the concepts of process and discipline resonate with the audience. The audience was a sports-oriented crowd, and I had about 15 minutes to get across one important concept that might help them

navigate the choppy markets. Then I remembered an article I read about world-class athletes and their approach to success. The author described how the greatest athletes, from Olympians to all-star professionals, focus on process rather than outcome when competing at the highest level. I thought about this in context of my own college athletic experience, which, although not at the Olympic level, involved the same need for calm and focus during high-pressure moments in a basketball game. Imagine yourself playing in a championship basketball game. Your team is trailing by one point. You are fouled just as the game clock goes to zero. You have two free throws. Make both and you win. Miss them and you lose. What do you do to contain the pressure and focus on the task? The great athletes look to process. While each process may be different, each one reflects a personal routine a player has performed thousands of times in practice. For instance, you start your routine as you approach the free throw line; you take a deep (CONTINUED ON PAGE 16)

Free Throws

15 Adapted from “Free Throws,” Advisor Community column, March 2016. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP is an investment advisor registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All expressions of opinion are subject to change. This information is intended for educational purposes, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products, or services.

Dave Butler offers a sports example to help investors apply discipline in a stressful market

breath and imagine the ball going through the hoop; you step to the line and find the exact spot (usually a nail right behind the painted line) where your right foot will anchor; you look at the back (or front) of the rim and notice the paint peeling or the net missing a connecting loop—or anything else to help you concentrate and calm your mind; and you take the ball from the referee and continue your routine. You dribble twice and flip the ball in the air, take a couple of knee bends, find the grooves on the ball, and spread your fingers across it. You feel the texture of the ball, the rough orange leather and the smooth black rubber on the grooves, and finally time the motion so that your body, the release of the ball, and the follow-through of your hand are all in perfect synch as the ball elevates and descends to the basket. The effective athlete does not hope for an outcome or get nervous or scared as the moment approaches. He or she immediately falls back on the tried and tested routine performed countless times in a more serene environment (practice). Following the routine dulls the noise of the crowd and brings clarity of mind.

The same lessons apply to the seasoned investor. A chaotic market is akin to what the visiting team experiences in a gym, where opposing fans and players are doing everything possible to distract you. You stay focused on a routine burned into your nature through coaching and repetitive practice. The components of the seasoned investor’s routine are similar: the investment policy statement, the regular review of family goals and liquidity needs, and the regular calls an advisor makes during good and bad markets. These and other actions are all part of the process developed to summon that muscle memory needed in stressful times. Just as the great athlete navigates through the moments of pressure in any athletic event, the actions are part of the routine that allows the individual to navigate through a chaotic market like we have today. I believe there are many stories and anecdotes that parallel the basic needs of an investor, but it is up to the advisor to find one that resonates with a particular client or audience. The example could involve a great violinist, a world-

class chef, or even a gardener. In each case, there is a story of discipline behind the person who continually works to perfect the craft and a reminder of how a successful investor can do the same. Statistics and data are the bedrock for the insights we gain about the capital markets, but it is often the conversational story that can help clients of advisors focus on the simplest and most important tenets of investment success. Regardless of the market or time period, advisors can encourage their clients to maintain the discipline needed to follow a process, which can lead to a great investment experience.

Free Throws (continued from page 15)

16

Dave Butler offers a sports example to help investors apply discipline in a stressful market

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Past performance is not an indication of future performance. The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered

investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any types of securities. There is a risk of loss from investments in securities, including the risk of loss of principal.

Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable or suitable for a particular

investor's financial situation or risk tolerance. Asset allocation and portfolio diversification cannot assure or guarantee better performance and cannot eliminate the risk of

investment losses.

No client or prospective client should assume that any discussion serves as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized advice from LWA or from any other investment

professional. LWA is neither an attorney nor an accountant, and no portion of the publication content should be interpreted as legal, accounting, or tax advice.

The information contained herein reflects Laurel Wealth Advisors’ views as of the date of this presentation. Such views are subject to change at any time without notice due

to changes in market or economic conditions and may not necessary come to pass. Laurel Wealth Advisors has obtained the information provided herein from various third

party sources believed to be reliable but such information is not guaranteed. Any forward looking statements or forecasts are based on assumptions and actual results are

expected to vary from any such statements or forecasts. No reliance should be placed on any such statements or forecasts when making any investment decision. Laurel

Wealth Advisors is not responsible for the consequences of any decisions or actions taken as a result of information provided in this presentation and does not warrant or

guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information.

DEFINITIONS:

Barclays Long US Government Bond Index - includes all publicly issued, U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity of 10 or more years, are rated investment

grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value. . An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index - is a market capitalization-weighted index, meaning the securities in the index are weighted according to the market size of each bond

type. Most U.S. traded investment grade bonds are represented. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index - represents the universe of fixed rate, non-investment grade debt. Eurobonds and debt issues from countries designated as

emerging markets (e.g., Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, etc.) are excluded but, Canadian and global bonds (SEC registered) of issuers in non- emerging market countries are

included. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

Barclays Municipal Bond Index - Unmanaged index that is considered representative of the broad market for investment grade, tax exempt bonds with a maturity of at least

one year. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

17

Barclays US TIPS Index - consists of inflation-protection securities issued by the US Treasury. They must have at least one year until final maturity and at least $250 million

par amount outstanding. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

BofA Merrill Lynch 1-Year US Treasury Note Index - Is an unmanaged index tracking U.S. government securities. The index is produced by Bank of America Merrill Lynch,

Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Inc. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

BofA Merrill Lynch Three-Month US Treasury Bill Index - an unmanaged market index of U.S. Treasury securities maturing in 90 days that assumes reinvestment of all

income. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

Commodities - A basic good used in commerce that is interchangeable with other commodities of the same type. Commodities are most often used as inputs in the

production of other goods or services.

Dow Jones US Select REIT Index - represents equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real estate operating companies (REOCs) traded in the U.S. An Investor

cannot invest directly in an index.

Emerging Markets - s a term that investors use to describe a developing country, in which investment would be expected to achieve higher returns but be accompanied by

greater risk.

Global Bond Market - The environment in which the issuance and trading of debt securities occurs anywhere in the world, including the investor's own country.

Global Real Estate - Property comprised of land and the buildings on it as well as the natural resources of the land including uncultivated flora and fauna, farmed crops and

livestock, water and minerals located anywhere in the world, including the investor's own country.

Global REITs - A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a closed-end investment company that owns assets related to real estate anywhere in the world, including the

investor's own country such as buildings, land and real estate securities. REITs sell on the major stock market exchanges just like common stock.

Growth - A strategy whereby an investor seeks out stocks with what they deem good growth potential. In most cases a growth stock is defined as a company whose

earnings are expected to grow at an above-average rate compared to its industry or the overall market.

International - The strategy of selecting globally-based investment instruments as part of an investment portfolio. International investing includes such investment vehicles as

mutual funds, American Depository Receipts, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or direct investments in foreign markets.

Junk Bonds - a high-yield, high-risk security, typically issued by a company seeking to raise capital quickly in order to finance a takeover.

Large Cap - A term used by the investment community to refer to companies with a market capitalization value of more than $10 billion. Large cap is an abbreviation of the

term "large market capitalization". Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the number of a company's shares outstanding by its stock price per share.

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MSCI All Country World Index - A market capitalization weighted index designed to provide a broad measure of equity-market performance throughout the world. An Investor

cannot invest directly in an index.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net div.) - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. An

investor cannot invest directly in an index.

MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index (net div.) - The MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index includes small cap representation across 23 Emerging Markets

countries. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

MSCI Emerging Markets Value Index (net div.) - captures large and mid-cap securities exhibiting overall value style characteristics across 23 Emerging Markets (EM)

countries. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

MSCI World ex USA Index (net div.) - The MSCI World Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. (excluding the United

States). An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index (net div.) - The MSCI World ex USA Small Cap Index captures small cap representation across 22 of 23 Developed Markets countries

(excluding the United States). An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

NASDAQ - the National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) to enable investors to trade securities on a computerized, speedy and transparent system, and

commenced operations on February 8, 1971.

One-Month US Treasury Bills - A short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. government with a maturity of one month (four weeks). T-bills are sold in denominations of

$1,000 up to a maximum purchase of $5 million.

Russell 1000 Value Index - An index of approximately 1,000 of the largest companies in the U.S. equity markets, the Russell 1000 is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index. An


Russell 2000 Index - The Russell 2000 Index is a small-cap stock market index of the bottom 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. An investor cannot invest directly in an

index.

Russell 2000 Value Index - A market-capitalization weighted equity index maintained by the Russell Investment Group and based on the Russell 2000 Index, which

measures how U.S. stocks in the equity value segment perform. An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

S&P 500 Index - is an American stock market index based on the market capitalizations of 500 large companies having common stock listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ. An


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S&P Global ex US REIT Index (net div.) - the S&P Global REIT serves as a comprehensive benchmark of publicly traded equity REITs listed in both developed and emerging

markets (excluding the United States). An investor cannot invest directly in an index.

Small Cap - Refers to stocks with a relatively small market capitalization. The definition of small cap can vary among brokerages, but generally it is a company with a market

capitalization of between $300 million and $2 billion.

Value - The strategy of selecting stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic values. Value investors actively seek stocks of companies that they believe the market has

undervalued. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, resulting in stock price movements that do not correspond with the company's long-term

fundamentals.

US Bond Market - The environment in which the issuance and trading of debt securities occurs in the United States.

US REITs - A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a closed-end investment company that owns assets related to real estate in the United States such as buildings, land and

real estate securities. REITs sell on the major stock market exchanges just like common stock.

US Treasury Yield - The return on investment, expressed as a percentage, on the U.S. government's debt obligations (bonds, notes and bills).

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quarterly market review: q1 2016

Economy & Finance