quant briefing: global earnings & revenues surprise monitor · europe ex-uk: percent surprise 5...

Quant Briefing:Global Earnings & Revenues

Surprise MonitorYardeni Research, Inc.

May 29, 2018

Dr. Ed Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

May 29, 2018 / Global Surprise Monitor www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

Surprise By Region (Coming Soon) 1Europe ex-UK: Historical Earnings Surprise Summary 2Europe ex-UK: Historical Revenue Surprise Summary 3Europe ex-UK Sectors: Current Quarter 4Europe ex-UK: Percent Surprise 5Europe ex-UK: Y/Y % Growth 6Europe ex-UK: % of Companies Pos/Neg Y/Y 7Europe ex-UK: Sector Earnings Surprise 8-9Europe ex-UK: Sector Revenue Surprise 10-11Europe ex-UK: Sectors Y/Y Earnings Growth 12Europe ex-UK: Sectors Y/Y Revenue Growth 13

Surprise By Region (Coming Soon)

Page 1 / May 29, 2018 / Global Surprise Monitor www.yardeni.com


Surprise By Region (Coming Soon)



Europe ex-UK: Historical Earnings Surprise Summary



Europe ex-UK: Historical Earnings Surprise Summary



Earnings Season Monitor: MSCI Europe ex‐UK (data as of May 29, 2018)

% Surprise

% Surprise (ex‐Energy

& Financials)

% with Positive Surprise

% with Negative Surprise

Y/Y % Growth

Y/Y % Growth (ex‐Energy & Financials)

% with Positive

Y/Y Growth

% with Negative

Y/Y Growth

# cos in index

# cos reported (qtr)

# cos reported (san)

2018Q1 4.5 4.8 52.8 41.5 5.7 6.3 61.0 35.8 343 195 52017Q4 5.7 9.4 52.4 43.5 9.7 22.7 57.6 39.1 344 191 602017Q3 ‐3.2 ‐1.5 53.0 38.6 1.9 5.6 64.9 31.9 336 202 82017Q2 4.6 1.9 53.4 41.3 10.1 14.5 63.2 33.8 339 206 612017Q1 8.5 8.1 61.6 30.5 6.3 ‐4.7 70.9 25.0 336 203 72016Q4 5.2 4.9 55.5 39.7 14.1 26.5 61.7 36.3 337 209 642016Q3 8.4 5.5 62.6 29.6 6.9 18.4 64.2 33.7 333 203 62016Q2 3.5 2.5 55.9 37.0 21.1 ‐3.3 55.2 42.8 334 211 522016Q1 7.9 2.8 57.8 37.2 ‐1.8 25.3 48.4 50.0 329 199 52015Q4 ‐14.0 ‐13.1 49.2 49.2 ‐3.7 ‐10.1 60.1 37.6 331 193 312015Q3 1.0 ‐1.1 53.3 45.6 ‐0.5 ‐1.6 62.1 35.6 329 195 62015Q2 ‐1.2 6.1 59.6 36.9 55.2 8.5 68.5 30.4 330 198 512015Q1 10.7 4.4 55.1 40.1 23.2 17.8 68.8 28.2 330 187 52014Q4 ‐12.9 ‐7.2 47.1 49.7 112.2 0.7 58.1 38.5 329 189 462014Q3 3.1 0.9 54.1 42.0 11.3 10.8 61.0 36.7 322 181 52014Q2 ‐7.7 0.9 50.5 45.1 2.3 13.7 62.6 35.7 325 184 502014Q1 ‐3.3 ‐3.7 41.2 52.0 ‐0.8 3.7 54.1 44.8 324 177 62013Q4 ‐53.7 ‐1.8 51.4 44.9 ‐57.3 ‐11.1 52.2 46.1 322 185 462013Q3 ‐191.0 0.4 51.0 43.8 ‐1712.9 ‐18.0 49.7 49.2 321 192 52013Q2 ‐595.3 ‐1.4 53.4 42.4 ‐149.0 ‐13.8 47.5 50.3 317 191 342013Q1 28.3 ‐3.2 52.1 42.6 ‐222.2 ‐15.1 43.9 52.8 323 188 52012Q4 137.1 8.5 44.3 52.2 ‐27.1 9.3 55.0 42.9 325 201 442012Q3 ‐94.5 3.8 56.2 40.0 ‐91.9 13.0 58.9 40.1 335 210 32012Q2 ‐250.8 5.3 48.3 46.8 ‐142.0 ‐0.4 50.5 48.5 332 205 122012Q1 ‐76.7 5.9 52.6 40.8 ‐85.9 ‐9.8 51.9 46.1 340 211 12011Q4 ‐1040.8 ‐9.3 50.5 47.1 ‐341.8 ‐23.8 46.3 53.2 338 204 02011Q3 ‐62.6 ‐2.7 50.5 47.3 ‐61.2 ‐5.2 54.4 44.6 353 220 02011Q2 ‐52.4 ‐1.0 47.7 50.0 ‐32.1 3.6 54.6 44.9 351 218 02011Q1 ‐28.4 6.5 50.0 46.3 ‐25.2 23.7 68.4 29.3 356 218 0

Surprise data based on each company's reporting currency. Y/Y growth data converted to euros using average exchange rate for thecurrent quarter to eliminate the effect of exchange rate changes. Each data item is based on all companies with available data; therefore the # of companies used to calculate the % surprise and % y/y growth may differ. Y/Y % growth compares the currentquarterly reporting period to the same quarterly period a year earlier.Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Yardeni Research, Inc.

Quarterly Earnings

Europe ex-UK: Historical Revenue Surprise Summary



Europe ex-UK: Historical Revenue Surprise Summary



Revenue Season Monitor: MSCI Europe ex‐UK (data as of May 29, 2018)

% Surprise

% Surprise (ex‐Energy

& Financials)



Y/Y % Growth

Y/Y % Growth (ex‐Energy & Financials)

% with Positive

Y/Y Growth

% with Negative

Y/Y Growth

2018Q1 ‐1.0 ‐1.9 46.6 53.4 0.1 ‐1.0 57.8 42.22017Q4 0.5 0.3 60.4 39.6 5.9 7.9 71.4 28.62017Q3 0.5 ‐0.5 50.0 50.0 3.8 3.6 75.0 25.02017Q2 0.5 ‐0.6 57.1 42.9 4.3 4.7 74.6 24.92017Q1 2.3 2.0 75.6 24.4 8.5 6.3 84.8 15.22016Q4 0.6 ‐2.3 59.5 40.5 2.7 1.1 71.0 28.52016Q3 0.4 ‐1.8 47.5 52.5 ‐1.9 ‐1.4 53.1 46.92016Q2 ‐0.7 ‐3.0 48.3 51.7 ‐5.0 ‐3.3 47.8 52.22016Q1 ‐0.4 ‐2.1 37.1 62.9 ‐5.6 ‐2.6 43.9 56.12015Q4 0.9 0.7 58.1 41.9 ‐2.1 2.0 62.7 37.32015Q3 1.0 0.3 48.4 51.6 ‐1.7 3.8 64.8 35.22015Q2 3.2 1.9 65.8 34.2 2.3 7.5 69.8 30.22015Q1 3.5 1.5 67.5 32.5 1.8 6.1 72.0 28.02014Q4 1.7 1.1 64.4 35.6 1.0 3.5 67.2 32.32014Q3 1.9 1.8 66.5 33.5 2.0 4.3 66.3 33.12014Q2 0.1 ‐1.0 46.4 53.6 ‐0.7 ‐1.3 50.6 49.42014Q1 ‐0.4 ‐0.6 41.2 58.8 ‐2.4 ‐1.1 52.0 48.02013Q4 0.4 ‐0.8 44.6 55.4 ‐3.4 ‐4.0 52.5 47.52013Q3 ‐0.4 ‐3.0 38.3 61.1 ‐3.3 ‐3.9 45.0 55.02013Q2 1.9 1.4 55.3 44.1 ‐0.2 ‐0.4 55.7 44.32013Q1 0.4 ‐0.6 41.0 58.5 ‐2.2 ‐2.7 47.3 52.72012Q4 4.1 2.8 61.0 39.0 2.7 3.4 63.7 35.82012Q3 0.9 ‐2.9 52.6 47.4 5.4 6.1 67.0 33.02012Q2 3.4 2.9 61.3 38.7 5.0 7.3 68.8 31.22012Q1 2.6 4.1 68.1 31.9 7.3 9.6 73.3 26.72011Q4 3.9 1.9 69.2 30.8 6.7 8.7 68.8 31.22011Q3 2.4 2.0 54.0 46.0 7.9 7.2 64.7 35.32011Q2 2.1 1.3 48.2 51.8 7.3 6.9 65.1 34.92011Q1 3.3 2.8 60.9 39.1 9.7 9.9 75.5 24.1

Surprise data based on each company's reporting currency. Y/Y growth data converted to euros using average exchange rate for the current quarter to eliminate the effect of exchange rate changes.Each data item is based on all companies with available data; therefore the # of companies used to calculatethe % surprise and % y/y growth may differ. Y/Y % growth compares the current quarterly reporting period to the same quarterly period a year earlier.Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Yardeni Research, Inc.

Quarterly Revenues

Europe ex-UK Sectors: Current Quarter



Q1‐2018 Earnings Season Monitor: MSCI Europe ex‐UK (data as of May 29, 2018)

% Surprise



Y/Y % Growth

% with Positive Y/Y

Growth

% with Negative

Y/Y Growth

# cos in index

# cos reported (qtr)

# cos reported (san)

MSCI Europe ex‐UK 4.5 52.8 41.5 5.7 61.0 35.8 343 195 5ex‐Energy and Financials 4.8 50.7 43.2 6.3 62.2 34.3 267 148 5Consumer Discretionary ‐0.3 45.0 55.0 ‐2.5 55.0 45.0 48 20 2Consumer Staples 1.4 36.4 45.5 2.0 55.6 33.3 29 11 0Energy ‐3.1 30.0 60.0 10.0 77.8 11.1 12 10 0Financials 5.8 67.6 29.7 3.4 51.4 48.6 64 37 0Health Care 5.9 73.3 26.7 ‐2.9 42.9 50.0 28 15 1Industrials ‐0.5 39.1 58.7 3.2 61.4 38.6 72 46 1Information Technology 1.6 50.0 25.0 66.1 75.0 16.7 16 12 1Materials 11.2 81.0 14.3 18.1 71.4 23.8 32 21 0Real Estate ‐6.7 0.0 100.0 na na na 8 2 0Telecommunication Services 13.8 50.0 50.0 13.6 75.0 16.7 17 12 0Utilities 23.9 44.4 33.3 8.9 66.7 33.3 17 9 0

% Surprise



Y/Y % Growth

% with Positive Y/Y

Growth

% with Negative

Y/Y Growth

MSCI Europe ex‐UK ‐1.0 46.6 53.4 0.1 57.8 42.2ex‐Energy and Financials ‐1.9 44.2 55.8 ‐1.0 54.6 45.4Consumer Discretionary ‐3.4 20.0 80.0 0.9 45.0 55.0Consumer Staples 0.3 72.7 27.3 ‐0.8 44.4 55.6Energy 0.6 50.0 50.0 14.1 80.0 20.0Financials 2.1 55.9 44.1 ‐3.2 64.7 35.3Health Care ‐0.7 53.3 46.7 ‐12.7 42.9 57.1Industrials ‐1.4 44.4 55.6 0.0 62.8 37.2Information Technology ‐0.4 33.3 66.7 1.8 66.7 33.3Materials 0.2 42.9 57.1 3.4 66.7 33.3Real Estate ‐7.5 50.0 50.0 2.3 100.0 0.0Telecommunication Services 0.0 58.3 41.7 ‐2.8 41.7 58.3Utilities ‐5.7 44.4 55.6 ‐5.7 25.0 75.0

Surprise data based on each company's reporting currency. Y/Y growth data converted to euros using average exchange ratefor the current quarter to eliminate the effect of exchange rate changes. Each data item is based on all companies with available data therefore the # of companies used to calculate the % surprise and % y/y growth may differ. Y/Y % growth compares the current quarterly reporting period to the same quarterly period a year earlier.Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Yardeni Research, Inc.

Quarterly Earnings

Quarterly Revenues

Europe ex-UK Sectors: Current Quarter



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Percentage Points Attributable toEnergy & Financials (0.9)

Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Yardeni Research Inc.

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Percentage Points Attributable toEnergy & Financials (-0.3)


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Figure 2.

Europe ex-UK: Percent Surprise



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Capped at 50% and -50% due to extreme values.


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Figure 4.

Europe ex-UK: Y/Y % Growth



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EUROPE EX-UK MSCI POSITIVE & NEGATIVE REVENUE SURPRISES*(percent of companies) Latest (46.6)

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* Percentage of Europe ex-UK MSCI companies that reported earnings above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Yardeni Research, Inc.

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EUROPE EX-UK MSCI POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EARNINGS SURPRISES*(percent of companies) Latest (52.8)

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* Percentage of Europe ex-UK MSCI companies that reported earnings above or below the consensus estimate at the time of the earnings report.Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Yardeni Research, Inc.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.

Europe ex-UK: % of Companies Pos/Neg Y/Y



Figure 7.

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Europe ex-UK: Sector Earnings Surprise



Figure 8.

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INDUSTRIALSearnings surprise (%)


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Europe ex-UK: Sector Earnings Surprise



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Europe ex-UK: Sector Revenue Surprise



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INDUSTRIALSrevenue surprise (%)

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yardeni.com

Europe ex-UK: Sector Revenue Surprise



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Figure 11.

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CONSUMER DISCRETIONARYy/y earnings growth (%)


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Europe ex-UK: Sectors Y/Y Earnings Growth



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Europe ex-UK: Sectors Y/Y Revenue Growth



quant briefing: global earnings & revenues surprise monitor · europe ex-uk: percent surprise 5...

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