q4 market report dubai

Q42015

Dubai Residential Market Report

Dubai Residential Market Report - Q4 2015

© Cavendish Maxwell 2016 | www.cavendishmaxwell.com 2

• Price performance • Rent performance • Residential supply• Cavendish Maxwell Residential

Market Survey - Q4 2015

Content

Sale price movement

Q3 2015 - Q4 2015

-1% -1%

Q4 2014 - Q4 2015

-6% -8%



Apartments

• Apartment prices declined, on average, by 1% in Q4 2015, where International City declined slightly faster at 2%.

• During the last 12 months, apartment price declines varied significantly across Dubai, dropping an average of 6% with peripheral locations such as Discovery Gardens, International City and Motor City declining the most at 9%, 9% and 10% respectively.

Sale performance

Apartments sale performance

Figure 1

Source: Property Monitor Index

-‐12%

-‐10%

-‐8%

-‐6%

-‐4%

-‐2%

0%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Business Bay Discovery Gardens

Downtown Burj Khalifa

Dubai Marina Dubai Sports City

Emirates Living (Views and Greens)

InternaOonal City

Jumeirah Beach

Residences

Motor City Palm Jumeirah (Shoreline Apartments)

% change

Average price

AED / sq V

Q3 2015 Q4 2015 QoQ % change 12 month change

QoQ % change Q3 2015 - Q4 2015Q4 2015Q3 2015 12 month % change Q4 2014 - Q4 2015

-1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%

-2%

-1% -1% -1%

-6%

-9%

-4%

-6% -6%

-5%

-9%

-4%

-10%

-6%



-20%

-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Al Furjan Villas

Arabian Ranches

Jumeirah Golf Estates

Jumeirah Islands

Jumeirah Park

Jumeirah Village

Triangle

The Lakes The Meadows

The Springs Victory Heights

Aver

age

pric

e A

ED

/ sq

ft


Villas

• Villa prices have declined by an average of 1% in Q4 2015, slower than the 2% in Q3 2015.

• On average, villa prices have declined by approximately 8% in the last 12 months. Prices at more established villa communities such as The Meadows and Springs declined by 12% and 18% respectively as buyers opted to purchase in the newer and upcoming communities.

Sale performance

Villas sale performance

Figure 2

Source: Property Monitor Index

-‐20%

-‐18%

-‐16%

-‐14%

-‐12%

-‐10%

-‐8%

-‐6%

-‐4%

-‐2%

0%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Al Furjan Villas

Arabian Ranches


Jumeirah Islands

Jumeirah Park

Jumeirah Village Triangle

The Lakes The Meadows

The Springs Victory Heights

% change

Average price

AED / sq S


-1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%

-8%-7%

-6%-5%

-6%

-10%

-7%

-12%

-18%

-7%

QoQ % change Q3 2015 - Q4 2015Q4 2015Q3 2015 12 month % change Q4 2014 - Q4 2015



Apartments

• Apartment rents have slightly declined by 1% in Q4 2015 and approximately 3% during 2015 across Dubai.

• The rate of decline varies from one development to another with International City rents declining at a higher rate of 2%, similar to the sale price trend in Q4 2015.

• On average, studio rental rates have increased while one and two bed rents have during Q4 2015.

Villas

• Villa rents have followed a similar trend as apartments with an average drop of 1% in Q4 2015 from Q3 2015 and a 3% decline during 2015.

• Rents in prime villa communities such as Arabian Ranches, Jumeirah Golf Estates and Jumeirah Islands remained relatively stable in Q4 2015 as in Q3 2015.

• Rents of three and five bed villas remained stable, whereas four bed villa rents have declined in Q4 2015.

Rent performance

Business Bay

Discovery Gardens

Dubai Marina

Dubai Sports City

International City

Jumeirah Beach Residences

Motor City

Palm Jumeirah (Shoreline Apartments)

The Greens

The Views

Al Furjan Villas

Arabian Ranches


Jumeirah Islands

Jumeirah Park

Jumeirah Village Triangle

The Lakes

The Meadows

The Springs

Victory Heights

2 bed 5 bed1 bed 4 bedStudio 3 bed

97

88

122

96

72

111

84

-

147

150

49

69

70

-

64

55

76

64

74

-

94

65

111

71

65

116

70

111

111

118

-

70

63

59

61

53

75

62

70

75

89

-

106

70

52

115

69

107

102

107

42

70

60

61

62

-

86

66

-

70

Figure 3 Figure 4 Source: Property Monitor IndexSource: Property Monitor Index

Apartments rental performance Villas rental performance

Rental rate AED/sq ft/annum

Q4 2015

Rental rate AED/sq ft/annum

Q4 2015



• Approximately 8,800 additional residential units entered the Dubai market in 2015.

• Over 70% of those are apartments with the remainder being villas and townhouses.

• Major completions in Dubai Sports City, Dubai Silicon Oasis and Dubailand.

• Approximately 7,000 units have been delayed from 2015 to 2016.

• Excluding those, 30,000 units have been scheduled for delivery in 2016, which may be subject to potential delays.

• The Dubai government budget for 2016 was increased by 12% to AED 46.1 billion, of which 14% allocated to infrastructure, which shows continued commitment toward the growth of Dubai leading up to 2020.

2015 Completions

Pipeline

Residential supply



Looking back - Q4 2015 - sales and rents

Q1 2016 sales outlookApartmentsPercentage of agents who predicted apartment prices would:

VillasPercentage of agents who predicted villa prices would:

Q1 20165 rents outlookApartmentsPercentage of agents who predicted apartment rents would:

VillasPercentage of agents who predicted villa rents would:

Cavendish Maxwell Residential Market Survey

36% of agents surveyed had predicted villa prices to decline by up to 5%

predictions vs reality

40% of agents surveyed had predicted apartment prices to remain unchanged.

Majority of agents surveyed had predicted that rents would remain the same for both apartments and villas.

Villa prices fell by 1%

Apartment prices fell by 1%

Apartment and villa rents declined by 1%

increase by more than 5% increase by up to 5% not change decrease by up to 5% decrease by more than 5%increase by more than 5% increase by up to 5% not change decrease by up to 5% decrease by more than 5%

Figure 8 Figure 9Source: Cavendish Maxwell Residential Market Survey Source: Cavendish Maxwell Residential Market Survey

46%

7%

33%

14% 18%

39%

5%

38%

43%

9%

34%

14%

45%

5%

34%

2%

11%

3%0%0%

PROPERTY SERVICESMIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

T: +971 (0) 4 453 9525 E: [email protected]

2205 Marina Plaza, Dubai Marina, P.O. Box 118624, Dubai, United Arab Emirates1006 Corniche Bakery Building, Al Firdous Street, Tourist Club Area, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

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Also contact us for:Miles Phillips BSc (Hons) MRICS ACIArbPartnerHead of Operations - UAE

M: +971 56 604 2750 E: [email protected]

Sofia Underabi BPropEc AAPI PartnerHead of Residential Valuation M: +971 50 435 6527 E: [email protected]

Dima Isshak BScResearch Manager


Jay Grant MSc IRRV (Hons) Managing Partner


Jonathan Brown BSc (Hons) FRICSHead of Abu Dhabi Office M: +971 50 940 3540 E: [email protected]

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