q3 financial results - dividend declaration - near term ... · q3 2009 conference call - q3...
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Q3 2009 Conference Call- Q3 financial results- Dividend declaration- Near term growth outlook- New Royalty Acquisitions
November 10, 2009
David Harquail - CEOAlex Morrison - CFO
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Cautionary StatementForward-Looking StatementsThis Presentation contains "forward-looking statements", which may include but are not limited to, statements with respect to future events orfuture performance, management's expectations regarding Franco-Nevada’s growth, results of operations, estimated future revenues, costs andtiming of acquiring new royalties, equity and other resource related interests, requirements for additional capital, mineral reserve and resourcesestimates, production costs and revenue, future demand for and prices of commodities, expected mining sequences, business prospects andopportunities. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. The words "expects", ”expected”,“estimated” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation arebased upon assumptions management believes to be reasonable, including, without limitation, the ongoing operation of the properties by theowners or operators of such properties in a manner consistent with past practice, the accuracy of public statements and disclosures made by theowners or operators of such underlying properties, no material adverse change in the market price of the commodities, and any other factors thatcause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. However, there can be no assurance that forward-lookingstatements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements.Franco-Nevada cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements and readers are cautionedthat forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. These risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to: fluctuationsin the prices of the primary commodities that drive the Company’s royalty revenue (gold, platinum group metals, copper, nickel, oil and gas);fluctuations in the value of the Canadian and Australian dollar, and any other currency in which the Company generates revenue, relative to theU.S. dollar; changes in national and local government legislation, including taxation policies; regulations and political or economic developmentsin any of the countries where the company holds interests in mineral or oil and gas properties; influence of macroeconomic developments;business opportunities that become available to, or are pursued by us; access to debt and equity capital; litigation; title disputes related to ourinterests or any of the underlying properties; operating or technical difficulties; risks and hazards associated with the business of developmentand mining, including, but not limited to unusual or unexpected operating difficulties, financial stress and other natural disasters or civil unrest.For additional information with respect to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, please also refer to the “Risk Factors” section of our most recentAnnual Information Form filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities on www.sedar.com, as well as our Annual and interim MD&A.The forward-looking statements herein are made as of the date of this Presentation only and Franco-Nevada does not assume any obligation toupdate or revise them to reflect new information, estimates or opinions, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by applicablelaw.
Non-GAAP MeasuresRoyalty Revenue, Free Cash-Flow, EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income are intended to provide additional information only and do not have anystandardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared inaccordance with GAAP. These measures are not necessarily indicative of operating profit or cash flow from operations as determined underGAAP. Other companies may calculate these measures differently.
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Q3/2009 Highlights
(1) Royalty Revenue is defined by the Company as cash received or receivable from operating royalty assets earned during the period.
(2) Free Cash Flow is defined by the Company as operating income plus depletion and depreciation, non-cash charges, and any impairment of investments and royalty interests
(3) Includes fair value gains on derivative assets.
US$ 000’s except per share and %’s
Q3 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2008
Royalty Revenue(1) $ 36,409 $ 32,887 $ 39,937
Gold Royalty Revenue 25,500 23,629 19,971
Total revenue(3) 41,090 45,079 40,023
Net income 12,343 25,089 9,893
Basic earnings per share $ 0.11 $ 0.25 $ 0.10
Free Cash Flow(2) $ 32,479 $ 27,919 $ 35,352
Free Cash Flow(2)per share $ 0.29 $ 0.27 $ 0.35
Free Cash Flow(2) as a % of Royalty Revenue(1) 89% 85% 89%
Record Gold Revenues & Gold Cash Flow
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$24.
9 $27.
9
$32.
5
$29.
2 $32.
9 $36.
4
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
$35.0
$40.0
Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09
Mill
ions
Free Cash Flow(2)
By Quarter
Key Themes
(1) Royalty Revenue is defined by the Company as cash received or receivable from operating royalty assets earned during the period.
(2) Free Cash Flow is defined by the Company as operating income plus depletion and depreciation, non-cash charges, and any impairment of investments and royalty interests
Growing gold revenues with margins now at 89%
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
$35.0
$40.0
Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09
Mill
ions
Royalty Revenue(1)
By QuarterG
old
Oth
er
85%
85%
89%
Free
Cas
h Fl
ow (2
)
Roy
alty
Rev
enue
(1)
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
($ m
illio
ns)
Oil & GasBase Metals & OtherPGMGold
Chart reflects Royalty Revenue, defined by the Company as cash received or receivable from operating royalty assets earned during the period.
Gold revenues have doubled since the IPO
Royalty RevenueGrowing gold and precious metals contribution
61%
55% 55% 56% 77%80% 77% gold & PGMs as %
of total RoyaltyRevenue
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Royalty Revenue(1) Q2/09 to Q3/09 (000’s)
(1) Royalty Revenue is defined by the Company as cash received or receivable from operating royalty assets earned during the period.
32,887
4,9941,654
847 1,191
3,0502,114
36,409
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Net Income Q2/09 to Q3/09 (000’s)
25,089
3,251
2,7862,432
1,6541,700
3,096
3,126
18,347
12,343
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Dividend Declaration
Declared a C$0.14 per share semi-annual dividend payable on December 18, 2009 to shareholders of record on December 4, 2009
- 16.7% higher in C$ terms than December, 2008 dividend- ~33% higher in US$ terms than December ,2008 dividend- annualized dividend payout of US$30m at current exchange rates
Franco-Nevada is among the top yielding gold investments
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Longer term Near term 2012+New in 2010-11Current producers
GoldstrikePalmarejo*Gold Quarry*StillwaterMarigoldRobinsonOil & gasothers…
Holloway-HislopHollisterHemlo NSRTasiastHoltItyothers...
DetourHemlo NPIFalcondo nickelPandora platinumRosemontDuketonGoldfieldsPerama Hill others…
>20 MINERAL OPERATIONS >100 O&G OPERATIONS
ROYALTIES UNDER DEVELOPMENT OR REACHING PAYOUT
PROJECTS AT FEASIBILITY, PERMITTING, FINANCING STAGES OR ON STANDBY
PinsonArturoKirkland LakeArctic Gas>145 other exploration assets>100,000 acres of undeveloped O&G land
Assets in place for continued gold revenue growth
Near-term Growth
BROAD EXPOSURE TO FUTURE POTENTIAL UPSIDES AT NO COST
* new acquisitions starting in 2009
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Gold Royalty Growth - Near Term
Management projection of start of royalty.Applicable royalty rate at $1,000 gold for sliding scale royaltiesReflects operator public guidance as of September 2009Reflects management’s projections based on available data2009 was a half year of production. 2010 is increment for full yearGold only. With copper & silver, royalty potential is $7-9mm
Project Operator Royalty
Annual Incremental Royalty Potential
@ $1,000 gold
2010
Palmarejo Coeur d’Alene 50% stream $15-19m Holloway–Hislop St Andrew Gold 4-5% NSR 3-4m Hollister Great Basin Gold 3-5% NSR 3-5m Hemlo NSR Barrick Gold 3% NSR 1-2m $22-30m
2011
Tasiast Red Back Mining 2% NSR $6-8m Holt St Andrew Gold 10% NSR 3-4m Ity La Mancha 1-1.5% NSR 1m $10-13m
2012+
Hemlo NPI Barrick Gold 50% NPI $5-12m Detour Detour Gold 2% NSR 10-12m Rosemont Augusta Resources 1.5% NSR 1-2m Duketon Regis Resources 2% NSR 2-3m Goldfields Linear Gold 2% NSR 1-2m Perama Hill Eldorado Gold 2% NSR 2-3m $20-33m
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Near term gold growth is in place and paid for (1) 2009 pro-forma assumes Q4 same as Q3 with true-up for Gold Quarry.(2) Slide 9 provides details to pro-forma incremental estimates
Existing Gold-OnlyRoyalty Revenue
New Incremental Gold-Only Royalty Revenue(2)
Not Shown• Any contribution
from >130 other longer term gold royalties
• PGM revenues
• Co-product base metal revenues
Gold Royalty Growth - Near Term
$22-30m
$32-43m
$71m
$100m
$52-76m
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
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Added Commodity Opportunity
Potential for $40 to $80 million in annual non-gold revenues with recovering commodity prices
Not Shown• >20 non-producing
other royalties• Stand-by assets
such as Falcondo
• Undeveloped O&G properties
• Arctic Gas
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009
($ m
illio
ns)
Oil & GasBase Metals & OtherPGM
Potential
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Capital Resources @ September 30, 2009 US$ Millions
Working Capital $559
Marketable securities $59
Available Credit Facility $150
Total Available Capital $768
Added Growth Potential
No debt or hedges and limited capital obligations
Future acquisitions prefunded for further growth
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New Royalties – Ahafo South, Ghana
Royalty Details– 2% NSR royalty on a portion of Newmont’s Ahafo South Mine in Ghana– royalty applies after 1.2 million ounces of production– 850,000 ounces have been produced from the royalty property since 2006– Covers ~78 km2 and all or portions of 3 of the 4 pits at Ahafo South
$58 million acquisition of Ahafo South Royalty
Mill complex
Source: Newmont November, 2009 presentation
Source: Moydow
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New Royalties – Ahafo, Ghana
Ahafo South Mine– reserves of 6.1 million ounces at Ahafo South as at Dec 31, 2008– over 50% of production to date has come from the royalty property– 520,800 ounces of gold sold in 2008 at a cost of $408/oz– Newmont guidance for 2009 is 500-525 koz
Subika expansion– opportunity to expand resources at
Subika by 4-7 million ounces (most if not all on royalty property)
– new pit layback and underground development under consideration
– mineralization is open in three dimensions
– opportunity to deliver higher grade ore to the Ahafo mill
Source: Newmont November, ‘09 presentation
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New Royalties - Mt Keith, Australia
Royalty Details– 0.375% gross royalty on all nickel produced from +200km2
of highly prospective greenstone in W. Australia– Royalties cover BHP’s producing Mt Keith nickel mine
Mt Keith Mine– Australia’s largest nickel mine with more than 14 years of
mine life remaining– Reserves of 164 Mt at 0.57% Ni at the end of 2008– BHP expects production of 30-45 ktpa of Ni– In Sept BHP announced approval for a US$152M talc
redesign project with potential to increase recovery and add to resources
AUD$20 million acquisition of Mt Keith & Kingston Royalties
Source: Metals X Limited website
Source: BHP Billiton
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Franco-Nevada Attributes
Leading gold royalty company– Highest margins in business– Generates free cash flow in all likely scenarios– Strongest asset base in U.S. and Canada– Growing and increasingly diversified gold revenue
Capital available for additional growth– >$600m in cash & marketable investments– $150m undrawn credit facility– No material capital requirements or overheads
Share price catalysts– Effective capital investments– Continued growing gold revenues– Re-rating to historic share valuations– Increasing leverage to gold (10% increase in gold price = 14% increase in gold revenue)
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Appendix: Adjusted Net Income
3 Months EndedSeptember 30
9 Months EndedSeptember 30
US$ 000’s except per share and %’s 2009 2008 2009 2008Net income $ 12,343 $ 9,893 $ 41,229 $ 24,970
Impairment of royalty assets, net of income tax - - 206 -
Foreign exchange loss (gain), net of income tax 307 66 (15,708) (773)
Other income, net of income tax (1,708) - (1,708) -
Gain on sale of investment, net of income tax (380) - (380) -
Change in fair value of royalties accounted for as derivative assets, net of income tax (3,220) - (14,483) -
Adjusted Net Income $ 7,342 $ 9,959 $ 9,156 $ 24,197
Adjusted Net Income per share $ 0.07 $ 0.10 $ 0.09 $ 0.25