q2 2010 presentation - norske skog oji paper (jap) sca (swe) kruger (can) catalyst (can) m‐real...
TRANSCRIPT
Norske SkogDeutsche Bank’s European Paper Seminar10 November 2010
Sven Ombudstvedt, President and CEO
Contents• Company specifics
• Market information
• Q3, financials, costs and outlook
Company specifics
A leading manufacturer of publication paper
• 14 mills in 11 countries
• Revenues (2009)
NOK 20.4 bn (USD 3.2 bn)
• 5 400 employees
• Listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange• No controlling shareholder; foreign
ownership ~ 35 %
• Debt financing:• Bank loans ~30%
• Dom & Int bonds ~70%
4
Global presence ‐ strong European footprint
Saugbrugs (Norway)Follum (Norway)Skogn (Norway)
Bruck (Austria)Walsum (Germany)Parenco (The Netherlands)
Golbey (France)
Singburi (Thailand)
MNI (Malaysia - 34%)
Boyer (Australia)Tasman (New Zealand)
Albury (Australia)Bio Bio (Chile)
Pisa (Brazil)
5
Europe and Australasia are key marketsTotal capacity 4.5 mill. tonnes
• Newsprint etc. 3.0 mill. tonnes• Magazine 1.5 mill. tonnes
Newsprint• Standard and improved grades for daily and
free newspapers, advertising supplements and paperbacks
• World‐wide operations, ex. North America
Magazine paper• Magazine paper for magazines, periodicals
and advertising purposes
• European operations only
• Two different grades:• SC ‐ uncoated paper (supercalendered)• CMR ‐ coated paper = LWC (Light‐weight
coated)
6
Reduced exposure to standard newsprint in Europe
Standard news1.880’
LWC850’
SC550’
Capacity end 2008
Total 3.380’ tonnes
i. Closure of Parenco PM2
ii. Partial conversion of Parenco PM1
iii.Conversion of Follum PM1
Standard news1.360’
LWC850’
SC etc685’
Capacity end 2010 (E)
Total 3.120’ tonnes
Book /Improved
100’
Book /Improved
225’
Major player in a fragmented industryTop global publication paper companies
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
UPM (FIN)
AbitibiBowater (US)Stora Enso (FIN)
Norske Skog (NOR)
Nippon Paper (JAP)Myllykoski (FIN)
NewPage (US)WhiteBirch (US)Holmen (SWE)
Oji Paper (JAP)SCA (SWE)
Kruger (CAN)Catalyst (CAN)
M‐real (FIN)
Burgo (ITA)
Newsprint Uncoated magazine paper Coated magazine paper
8
Source: RISI Dec 08, PPPC Oct 09
Million tonnes
Top 5 share of capacity
Grade North America
Europe
Newsprint 80% 60%
Uncoated Mag 80% 80%
Coated Mag 85% 70%
Market information
Region/segment Annual change (YTD)*
Comments
World standard newsprint
3.3 %
North America standard newsprint
‐5.6 %
Europe standard newsprint
1.6 % Western Europe (+3 %) Eastern Europe (‐3 %)
Europe magazine paper
(incl. improved newsprint etc)
5.8 % SC (‐3 %) LWC (+10 %)
Non‐Japan Far East Standard newsprint
9.6 % Highest growth in India Increased customer inventories
Australasia
standard newsprint
9.9 %
Latin America
standard newsprint
16.0 % Highest growth in Brazil Increased customer inventories
*) Change from January‐September 2009 vs same period in 2010, Source: PPPC, CEPIPRINT
Demand 2010 per region/segment
10
North American newsprint shipments to Europe
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2001
Tonnes (000’s) Market share (%)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E
Source: CEPIPRINT
NA market shareNA export to Europe
11
Main trade flows – Std newsprintYTD Sep 2010
Source: PPPC
YTD 2010 254
change 2009 ‐71
% change ‐22 %
YTD 2010 727
change 2009 198
% change 37 %YTD 2010 829
change 2009 559
% change 207 %
YTD 2010 1 056
change 2009 133
% change 14 %
12
Main trade flows – Magazine paperYTD Sept 2010
Source: PPPC
N.Am to: S.Am Asia
YTD 2010 184
46
33 %
145
change 2009 50
% change 53 %
13
EU to: N.Am S.Am Asia
562 817
253
45 %
66
13 %
AA
YTD 2010 312
124
66 %
277
change 2009 85
% change 44 %
Price development ‐ Europe vs. USA
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
EUR/tonne Newsprint Germany US East
Source: RISI
14
• US price drop due to currency effects• EUR/USD = 1.40
• 15% price gap end Q3• Average price in Europe last 15
years: € 550
Currency movement
Price development ‐ Germany
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
Jan 06
Apr 06
Jul 06
Oct 06
Jan 07
Apr 07 Jul
07Oct
07Jan
08Apr
08 Jul 08
Oct 08
Jan 09
Apr 09 Jul
09Oct
09Jan
10Apr
10Jul
10Oct
10
EUR/tonne Newsprint SC 56 g LWC 60 g
15
Source: RISI
Demand newsprint 2000 – 2010e
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
M tonnes
’10e‘02 ’04 ‘06 ‘08 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
M tonnesEastern Europe Western Europe
Europe
‘00 ’10e‘02 ’04 ‘06 ‘08‘00
Source: PPPC
North America
Demand newsprint 2000 ‐ 2009
17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
M tonnes
2009200720052001 2003
Source: PPPC
AsiaLatin AmericaAfrica Oceania
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 20092007
M tonnes
2001 2003
Rest of the world World total
North America Europe
Newsprint – Europe and North America is different
• Large number of nations, languages and cultures• Strong tradition for newspaper reading and subscription in
many of the countries• Publishers believe in printed medias and have invested in new
equipment• Well developed public transportation• Growth potential in Russia and other East European countries
18
Europe
USA• One nation, but hardly any national newspaper• Less tradition for newspaper reading• Less public transportation
Q3, financials, costs and outlook
Q3 2010 in brief
• Underlying EBITDA remained weak, in line with previous quarters• Slightly improved market
conditions
• Higher prices on input factors
• Capacity utilisation up to Q4 2008 level
• Net interest‐bearing debt down by NOK 1.3 bn
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Q3 2009 Q4 Q1 2010 Q2 Q3 *
EBITDANOK mill.
*) Including reversal of an environmental provision of NOK 108 mill.
20
Continued debt and cost reduction
21
12.2
10.0 9.6 9.5
10.3
9.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q2 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 Q2 Q3
NIBDNOK bn.• Net interest‐bearing debt down by NOK 1.3 bn. to NOK 9 bn.• Proceeds from sale of excess
energy • Positive cash flow from
operations• Stronger NOK vs. USD reduced
debt value
• Capex down from Q2
• Annual fixed cost level reduced by NOK 600 mill. compared with first half 2009
Increased demand ‐ higher capacity utilisation
• 90 % operating rate, marginally higher than Q2
• Substantial growth in demand in Asia, Australasia, South America, and for magazine paper
• Export from Europe to Asia remained high
• Announced net capacity closures of ~600k tonnes of newsprint in Europe this year
• Reduced imports from North America
75 %81 %
84 % 85 %89 % 90 %
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
Q2 2009 Q3 Q4 Q1 2010 Q2 Q3
Operating rate
22
Improvements offset by currency effects and higher input factor costs• Higher prices on input factors
(time lag in accounts)• Market pulp – spot price peak
in Q3 (Magazine paper)• Recovered paper – continued
increase (Newsprint)• Wood – higher costs in Norway
second half 2010
• Profitability in Newsprint Europe and Magazine paper negatively affected by currency translations on trade receivables
23
Pulp/tonne consumption
100
110
120
130
140
150
Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10
RP/tonne consumption
100
110
120
130
140
Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10
Index: Q4=100
Index: Q4=100
Results ‐ segments
Q3 09
Q3 10
‐100
0
100
200
300
400
Europe News News outside Europe Magazine Energy
NOK mill. EBITDA
24
*) News outside Europe including a reversal of an environmental provision of NOK 108 mill, no cash effect
*
Cash and debt maturity profile
25
4.5
‐0.1
‐1.7 ‐3.2
‐0.7
‐0.9 ‐1.0
‐3.9
‐0.1
‐1.2‐0.3 ‐0.1
Per 30 September 2010
Current cost picture (cash cost)Energy• 2/3 electricity of which most is bought
under long term contracts Wood• S.America & Australasia:
• Long term contracts at favorable prices• Continental Europe
• Market exposure, expect some price pressure
• Norway• Long term volume contracts, certain
increase in 2H 2010 Recovered paper• Reduced exposure after disposals in
China and idling PM2 in Parenco• Significant cost pressure in 2010
Market pulp• Significant price increase, but signs of
lower prices during the autumn• NSI has limited exposure
~200kt in magazine production
26
Energy 22%
Wood 12%
RP 9%
Pulp 3%
Other fixed 9%
Labour 16%
Distribution 10%
Other direct 9%
Chemicals, fillers etc. 10%
2009 figures, calculated to 90% operating rate
Outlook for Q4 10:
• Seasonal increase in European demand
• No major changes in prices expected
• Input factor prices remain high
Management focus going forward:• Re‐establish earlier price level and margin in Europe
• Quarterly contracts also for newsprint
• Further reduction of debt and fixed costs
• Positioning for active role in industry consolidation
27
Q & A