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PVC in Eastern Europe

Special market report

2006

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PVC in Eastern Europe – 2006

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RESUME…............................................................................................................... 6

DEFINITIONS IN THE REPORT................................................................................ 7

1. MACROECONOMIC INDEXES OF EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ................... 11

2. PVC MARKET: WORLD TRENDS ......................................................................... 19

2.1. World PVC Market .................................................................................. 19

2.2. Asian PVC Market................................................................................... 27

2.3. PVC Market in Western Europe ................................................................ 28

3. PVC MARKET IN EASTERN EUROPE................................................................... 32

3.1. General Market Trends ........................................................................... 32

3.2. Consumption of PVC in Eastern European Countries .................................. 35

3.3. Production of PVC by Countries of Eastern Europe ...................................... 46

3.4. Export of PVC by Countries of Eastern Europe............................................ 49

3.5. Import of PVC by Countries of Eastern Europe ........................................... 51

3.6. The Balance of the VCM Market in Eastern Europe...................................... 53

3.7. The Balance of the Chlorine and Caustic Markets in Eastern Europe.............. 57

а) Chlorine..............................................................................................57

b) Caustic ...............................................................................................61

4. PVC MARKET BY COUNTRIES OF EASTERN EUROPE .......................................... 32

4.1. Poland ................................................................................................ 65

4.1.1. The General Economic Situation ........................................................65

4.1.2. Consumption of PVC........................................................................68

а) Profile Market ......................................................................................71

b) Pipe Market .........................................................................................72

c) Other Markets......................................................................................73

4.1.3. Production of PVC ...........................................................................73

4.1.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets............75

4.2. Hungary.............................................................................................. 78

4.2.1. The General Economic Situation ........................................................78


а) Profile Market ......................................................................................83

b) Pipe Market .........................................................................................83



4.3. Romania ............................................................................................. 91

4.3.1. The General Economis Situation ........................................................91


а) Profile Market ......................................................................................94

b) Pipe Market ........................................................................................94



4.4. The Czech Republic........................................................................... 103

4.4.1. The General Economic Situation ...................................................... 103

4.4.2. Consumption of PVC...................................................................... 105

4.4.3. Production of PVC .........................................................................107

4.4.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets.......... 109

4.5. Slovakia............................................................................................ 111

4.5.1. The General Economic Situation ...................................................... 111

4.5.2. Consumption of PVC...................................................................... 112

4.5.3. Production of PVC .........................................................................114

4.5.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets.......... 114



4.6. Former Yugoslavia……………….……………………………………….……………………116

4.6.1. The General Economic Situation ………………………………………………………………………………116

4.6.2. Consumption of PVC …………………………………………………………………………………………………119

4.6.3. Production of PVC ……………………………………………………………………………………………………121

4.6.4. The Balance of the Chlorine and Caustic Markets …………………………………………………124

4.7. Bulgaria……………………………….……………………..……………….…………………..127

4.7.1. The General Economis Situation ………………………………………………………………………………127


4.7.3. Production of PVC………………………………………………………………………………………………………130

4.7.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets …………………………131

4.8. Baltic Countries……………………………………………………………..…………………..133


а) Latvia ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………134

б) Lithuania …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………135

в) Estonia………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………136



4.8.4. The Balance of the Chlorine and Caustic Markets……………………………………………………139

4.9. The Republic of Belarus………………………………………..……….……………………140




4.9.4. The Balance of the Chlorine and Caustic Markets……………………………………………………143

4.10. Turkey……………………………………………………………………….……………………144

4.10.1. The General Economic Situation ……………………………………………………………………………144

4.10.2. Consumption of PVC ………………………………………………………………………………………………146

4.10.3. Production of PVC……………………………………………………………………………………………………150

4.10.4. The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets ………………………152

5. INFLUENCE OF OTHER REGIONS ON PVC MARKET OF EASTERN EUROPE……..154

5.1. Iran ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………155

5.2. China ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………158

5.3. South Korea …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………165

APPENDIX……………………………………………………………………………………………….167


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This market report includes consumption, production and export-import

analysis of PVC, VCM, Chlorine and Caustic in all countries of Eastern Europe.

Report provides the data from 2000 to 2005 as well as market forecast for 2010.

Report was prepared by analysts of Harriman Chemsult and Market Report

Company (MRC).

We would like to present you the up-to-date PVC market report with

aggregated data about sixteen Eastern European countries. Besides additional data

on Russia, Turkey, Iran, China, South Korea and Japan are presented. There is the

detailed analysis of trends in consumption markets and presentation of activity of

the largest producers and consumers.

We estimated the prospects of PVC consumption in each country of Eastern

Europe up to 2010. Separately we have analyzed the consumption, production and

export-import of VCM, ethylene, chlorine and caustic in each country as well. There

is a detailed description of each PVC producer according to its production balance

(VCM, ethylene and chlorine availability, caustic sales ability).

We have analyzed the Asian region to understand its influence on PVC

market in Eastern Europe in the nearest future. In particular, the market situation

and development trends in China, its influence on possible deliveries of PVC from

South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

In the report, you can also find answers for the following questions:

What is PVC, Chlorine and Caustic consumption level in each country of Eastern Europe?

How will these markets develop until 2010?

Which PVC processing sectors will be the most perspective in Eastern Europe?

How will profile, pipes, flooring and films markets develop in Poland, Hungary, Czech

Republic, Slovakia and Romania?

What is PVC consumption growth potential in Turkey? How will the declared PVC projects

in Iran influence on Eastern European producers positions in Turkey?

Will VCM delivery balance be broken because of PVC production input in Kalush?

Why were the PVC productions in Tarnow, Oswiecim and Dwory closed? Will PVC

productions in Pancevo and Devnya be reanimated or not?

What are Dioki perspectives to renew the VCM capacities by 2008-2009?

How well are PVC/VCM/Chlorine/Caustic productions in BorsodChem, Anwil, Oltchim,

Spolana, NCHZ, Petkim balanced?

How will the chlorine and caustic markets develop in each country of Eastern Europe?

Which exactly companies are the biggest chlorine/caustic consumers in these countries?

What is the role of China for the nearest years - PVC importer or exporter?

Where will Japan, South Korea, Taiwan redirect their PVC export deliveries during the

next three-five years?

Statistics of report: 187 pages, 133 tables, 215 diagrams,

31 355 words, 204 companies mentioned, 20 appendixes

Format: PDF file or color paper version.

Contact [email protected]



List of tables

1. Construction volumes in EE, mln. sq. m 2. Construction volumes growth in countries of Eastern Europe, % 3. The world PVC demand, 2003 4. The world PVC market, КТ 5. PVC-paste world balance, 2004, КТ 6. The World biggest producers of PVC-S and PVC-paste, 2004 7. The World PVC-E capacity expansion, КТа 8. The World trade balance of PVC-Е , 2010, КТ 9. PVC demand distribution in Asia, 2004 10. PVC consumption in Western Europe , 2003-2004, КТ 11. PVC market in Western Europe, 2003-200, КТ 12. PVC market indexes in Western Europe, 2003-2005, КТ 13. Real PVC consumption increase in countries of EE 14. PVC consumption in countries of Eastern Europe, MT 15. PVC pipe market in Eastern Europe, КТ 16. Polymers use for pipe production 17. PVC production in countries of Eastern Europe, КТ 18. PVC capacities in countries of Eastern Europe, КТа 19. PVC capacity loading in countries of Eastern Europe, % 20. PVC export from Eastern Europe, MT 21. Export share in PVC production, MT 22. PVC import into countries of Eastern Europe, MT 23. Import share in PVC consumption, MT 24. VCM capacities in countries of Eastern Europe, MT 25. VCM export-import in countries if Western Europe, 2005, КТ 26. Chlorine import into countries pf EE, MT 27. Chlorine export from countries of EE, MT 28. Caustic import into countries of EE, MT 29. Caustic export form countries of EE, MT 30. Macroeconomic indexes of Poland 31. New capacities in polymers production until 2010 32. PVC market in Poland, MT 33. Some PVC articles production in Poland, MT 34. Window profile production in Poland, 2004, mln. USD 35. Pipe producers in Poland, 2004, mln. USD 36. Flooring producers in Poland, 2004, mln. USD 37. PVC production in Poland, MT 38. PVC compounds production in Poland, 2000-2004, MT 39. Chlorine market in Poland, MT 40. Caustic consumption in Poland by branches, КТ 41. Chlorine/caustic capacities in Poland, КТ 42. Caustic market in Poland, MT 43. Caustic consumption in Poland by branches, КТ 44. Macroeconomic indexes of Hungary 45. PVC market in Hungary, MT 46. Consumption of PVC-S for articles production, Hungary, MT 47. BorsodChem capacities, КТа 48. PVC production in Hungary, т 49. PVC compounds production in Hungary, 2000-2004, MT 50. Chlorine market in Hungary, MT 51. Chlorine consumption in Hungary by branches, КТ 52. Chlorine/Caustic capacities in Hungary, КТ 53. Caustic market in Hungary, MT 54. Caustic consumption in Hungary by branches, КТ 55. Chlorine/ Caustic capacities in Hungary, КТ 56. Caustic market in Hungary, MT 57. Caustic consumption in Hungary by branches, КТ 58. Macroeconomic indexes of Hungary 59. PVC market in Romania, MT 60. PVC-S deliveries, Oltchim production, MT 61. Oltchim capacities, КТа 62. Chlorine market in Romania, MT 63. Chlorine consumption in Romania by branches, КТ 64. Chlorine/ Caustic capacities in Romania, КТ 65. Caustic market in Romania, MT 66. Caustic consumption in Romania by branches, КТ 67. Macroeconomic indexes of Czech Republic

68. PVC market in Czech Republic, MT 69. PVC consumption in Czech Republic, MT 70. PVC finished articles export/import in Czech Republic, MT 71. PVC-S deliveries in Czech Republic, MT 72. PVC compounds deliveries in Czech Republic, MT 73. PVC compounds import-export to Czech Republic, MT 74. Chlorine market а in Czech Republic, MT 75. Chlorine consumption in Czech Republic by branches, КТ 76. Chlorine/Caustic capacities in Czech Republic, КТ 77. Caustic market in Czech Republic, MT 78. Caustic consumption in Czech Republic by branches, КТ 79. Macroeconomic indexes of Slovakia 80. PVC market in Slovakia, MT 81. Chlorine market in Slovakia, MT 82. Chlorine consumption in Slovakia by branches, КТ 83. Chlorine/Caustic capacities in Slovakia, КТ 84. Caustic market in Slovakia, MT 85. Caustic consumption in Slovakia by branches, КТ 86. Macroeconomic indexes of ex-Yugoslavia 87. GDP in countries of ex-Yugoslavia, 2004, % 88. GDP in countries of ex-Yugoslavia, mln. USD 89. GDP per capita in countries of ex-Yugoslavia, USD 90. Population in countries of ex-Yugoslavia, thous. people. 91. Dioki capacities, КTа 92. Dioki production, КТ 93. Chlorine market in ex-Yugoslavia, MT 94. Chlorine consumption in ex-Yugoslavia, MT 95. Chlorine production capacities in ex-Yugoslavia, MT 96. Chlorine production in ex-Yugoslavia, MT 97. Caustic market in ex-Yugoslavia, MT 98. Caustic consumption in ex-Yugoslavia, MT 99. Caustic production in ex-Yugoslavia, MT 100. Caustic import into ex-Yugoslavia, MT 101. Macroeconomic indexes of Bulgaria 102. PVC market in Bulgaria, MT 103. Petrochemical production deliveries from Burgas, MT 104. Chlorine market in Bulgaria, MT 105. Chlorine consumption in Bulgaria by branches, КТ 106. Chlorine/Caustic capacities in Bulgaria, КТа 107. Caustic market in Bulgaria, MT 108. Caustic consumption in Bulgaria by branches, КТ 109. Macroeconomic indexes of Baltic countries 110. Macroeconomic indexes of Latvia 111. Macroeconomic indexes of Lithuania 112. Macroeconomic indexes of Estonia 113. PVC market in Baltic countries, MT 114. Chlorine market in Baltic countries, MT 115. Chlorine consumption in Baltic countries, MT 116. Caustic market in Baltic countries, MT 117. Caustic consumption in Baltic countries, MT 118. Macroeconomic indexes of Belarus’ 119. PVC market in Belarus’, MT 120. Chlorine market in Belarus’, MT 121. Caustic market in Belarus’, MT 122. Macroeconomic indexes of Turkey 123. PVC market in Turkey, MT 124. Production capacities of Petkim, 2005 125. Basic polymers production in Turkey, MT 126. Chlorine market in Turkey, MT 127. Caustic market in Turkey, MT 128. PVC market in Iran, КТ 129. PVC production capacities in Iran, 2004-2010, КТа 130. PVC market in Iran, 2004-2010, КТ 131. Macroeconomic indexes of South Korea 132. Petrochemical production in South Korea, KТ 133. Petrochemical production in Japan, KT



List of diagrams and pictures

1. GDP increase in the world, % 2. Industrial production increase in the world, % 3. GDP increase in countries of EE, % 4. GDP in current prices in EE, bln. USD 5. GDP distribution in EE, 2004, % 6. GDP increase in some countries of EE, % 7. Population in EE, mln. people. 8. GDP per capita in EE, USD 9. GDP in countries of EE, 2004, bln. USD 10. GDP in countries of EE, 2010, bln. USD 11. GDP in countries of EE (РРР), 2004, bln. USD 12. GDP distribution in EE, 2010, % 13. Construction per capita in EE , sq. m 14. Construction volumes in EE, 2004, % 15. Construction in EE, 2004, mln. sq. m 16. Total construction volumes growth 2005-2008, % to 2004 17. Basic polymers consumption in the world, 2004, % 18. PVC world balance, 1995-2004 19. PVC world production, mln. MT 20. PVC world capacities distribution , 2005-2010 21. New PVC capacities, 2005-2010, % 22. PVC world capacities, 2004, % 23. PVC world capacities, 2010, % 24. PVC world prices, USD / MT 25. PVC-Е world consumption structure, 2004, % 26. PVC-Е consumption in the world, 2004, % 27. PVC-Е consumption structure in Western Europe, 2004, % 28. PVC-Е consumption structure in Western Europe by

countries, 2004, % 29. PVC deliveries balance in some countries of Asia, KT 30. PVC prices, FOB / NWE, USD /MT 31. PVC producers in Western Europe, 2004 32. PVC production integration in Western Europe 33. PVC production in Western Europe, 2004, % 34. Average PVC production capacities, 2005, KТа 35. PVC consumption in Western Europe, 2004, % 36. PVC consumption in Western Europe by countries, % 37. PVC consumption in the world, mln. MT 38. PVC consumption in the world, kg/person 39. PVC region markets, 2004, kg 40. PVC region markets, 2010, kg 41. PVC consumption in EE, 2004 42. Pipe PVC consumption in EE, 2004 43. Soft compounds consumption in EE, 2004 44. Rigid compounds consumption in EE, 2004 45. Chlorine-vynil branch situation in world regions, 2004 46. PVC consumption in EE, 2004, КТ 47. PVC consumption in EE by countries, 2004, % 48. PVC consumption in EE, 2004, КТ 49. PVC consumption in EE by countries, 2010, КТ 50. PVC consumption in EE, КТ 51. PVC consumption per capita in EE, kg 52. PVC market components in EE, КТ 53. PVC-E consumption increase, 2005-2010, % 54. PVC –E consumption in CEE, 2004 55. PVC price, 2000-2006, USD /MT 56. Profile productionin Europe, 2003 57. Profile consumption in Europe, 2003 58. PVC profile consumption per 1000 homes, MT 59. PVC pipe consumption in CEE, 2004 60. Evolution of pipe market 61. Pipe consumption increase, 2000-2005, Western Europe, % 62. European pipes market, КТ 63. Pipes consumption, France, 2004 64. Pipes consumption, Switzerland, 2004 65. Pipes consumption, Germany, 2004 66. Pipes consumption, Poland, 2004 67. PVC production by EE countries, КТ 68. PVC production/capacities in EE, КТ 69. PVC capacities in EE, 2004, % 70. PVC capacities loading in EE, % 71. PVC export by EE countries, КТ 72. PVC import into Turkey, КТ 73. PVC import by EE countries, КТ 74. PVC / VCM Capacities in EE, 2004, КТ 75. PVC/ VCM production in EE, КТ

76. VCM capacities loading in EE, % 77. VCM Capacities by EE countries, 2004, % 78. PVC/VCM production without Kalush, КТ 79. VCM capacities by EE countries, 2010, % 80. VCM deliveries from Kalush, 2004, % 81. VCM deliveries from Kalush, 2005, % 82. PVC / VCM capacities in EE, КТ 83. Chlorine consumption in EE, КТ 84. Chlorine consumption in EE, 2004, % 85. Chlorine market in EE, КТ 86. Chlorine production in EE, КТ 87. Chlorine production in EE, 2004, % 88. Chlorine production capacities in EE, 2004 89. Chlorine capacities loading in EE, % 90. Chlorine import into EE, 2004, % 91. Chlorine export from EЕ, 2004, % 92. Caustic consumption in EE, КТ 93. Caustic consumption in EE, 2004, % 94. Caustic market in EE, КТ 95. Caustic production in EE, КТ 96. Caustic production in EE, 2004, % 97. Caustic capacities in EE, 2004, % 98. Caustic capacities loading in EE, % 99. Caustic import into EE, 2004, % 100. Caustic export from EE, 2004, % 101. GDP in Poland, bln. Zlt. 102. Chemical market in Poland, bln. EUR 103. Polymers consumption in Poland, 2004, % 104. PVC consumption in Poland, КТ 105. PVC consumption per capita, Poland, kg 106. PVC market components in Poland, КТ 107. PVC import into Poland, 2005, % 108. PVC prices in Poland, 2000-2006, USD / MT 109. Poland. PVC consumption by markets, КТ 110. PVC –S consumption in Poland, 2004, % 111. Windows sale structure in Poland, % 112. PVC soft compound consumption in Poland, 2004, % 113. PVC rigid compounds consumption in Poland, 2004, % 114. PVC compounds processing in Poland, КТ 115. Goods production of PVC chain in Poland, 2004, КТ 116. GDP in Hungary, bln. EUR 117. Hungary. Construction volumes per capita, sq. m 118. PVC end consumption in Hungary, КТ 119. PVC –S consumption in Hungary, КТ 120. Hungary. PVC consumption per capita, kg 121. Hungary. PVC market components, КТ 122. BorsodChem PVC-S deliveries, КТ 123. PVC price, 2000-2006, USD /MT 124. PVC-S consumption by markets, Hungary, КТ 125. PVC production профиля in Hungary, КТ 126. Production of polymeric pipes in Hungary, КТ 127. VCM capacities,BorsodChem, KTa 128. PVC production chain, BorsodChem 129. Soft compounds production in Hungary, 2004, % 130. Rigid compounds production in Hungary, 2004, % 131. PVC compounds consumption in Hungary, КТ 132. PVC compounds production in Hungary, КТ 133. Goods production of PVC chain в BorsodChem, 2005 134. Goods production of PVC chain capacities in BorsodChem, 2010 135. Ethylene deliveries capacities in BorsodChem 136. Ethylene balance in TVK, 2005 137. GDP in Romania, bln. USD 138. Romania. Construction volumes per capita, sq. m 139. PVC end consumption in Romania, КТ 140. Romania. PVC consumption per capita, kg 141. PVC market components in Romania, КТ 142. Romania. PVC profile consumption, КТ 143. PVC profile import into Romania, 2003, % 144. PVC production in Romania, КТ 145. Oltchim PVC capacities, КТа 146. Oltchim location 147. PVC production chain, Oltchim 148. PVC production goods balance, Oltchim, 2004 149. Petrom production, КТ 150. GDP in Czech Republic, bln. EUR

PVC in Eastern Europe - 2006


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List of diagrams and pictures (continuation)

151. Czech Republic. Construction volumes per capita, sq. m 152. PVC consumption in Czech Republic, КТ 153. Czech Republic. PVC consumption per capita, kg 154. Czech Republic. PVC market components, КТ 155. Spolana. Before and after flood, 2002 156. GDP of Slovakia, bln. EUR 157. PVC consumption in Slovakia, КТ 158. Slovakia. PVC consumption per capita, kg 159. Slovakia. PVC market components, КТ 160. GDP of ex-Yugoslavia, bln. USD 161. GDP per capita in ex-Yugoslavia, 2004, bln. USD 162. PVC consumption in ex-Yugoslavia, КТ 163. PVC consumption in ex-Yugoslavia, 2004, % 164. Ex-Yugoslavia. PVC consumption per capita, kg 165. PVC consumption per capita, 2004, kg 166. Dioki capacities, КТ 167. Dioki production, КТ 168. Dioki production chain, КТ 169. GDP in Bulgaria, bln. USD 170. PVC consumption in Bulgaria, КТ 171. Bulgaria. PVC consumption per capita, kg 172. PVC import into Bulgaria, 2005, % 173. PVC production forecast in Bulgaria, 2007, % 174. GDP in Baltic countries, bln. EUR 175. GDP in Baltic countries, 2005, % 176. GDP per capita in Baltic countries, thous. USD 177. PVC consumption in Baltic countries, КТ 178. PVC consumption in Baltic countries, 2005, % 179. Baltic countries. PVC consumption per capita, kg 180. Baltic countries. PVC consumption per capita, 2004, kg 181. GDP in Belarus’, bln. USD 182. PVC consumption in Belarus’, КТ 183. Belarus’. PVC consumption per capita, kg

184. GDP in Turkey, bln. USD 185. Polymers consumption and GMP increase in Turkey, % 186. Petrochemical productions in Turkey 187. PVC consumption in Turkey, КТ 188. Turkey. PVC consumption per capita, kg 189. Turkey. PVC market components, КТ 190. PVC import into Turkey, КТ 191. First five PVC importers to Turkey, КТ 192. PVC importers, duty free, КТ 193. PVC-S producers shares in Turkey, 2004, % 194. PVC-S consumption structure in Turkey, 2005, % 195. Geography of PVC processors in Turkey 196. PVC articles export form Turkey, 2004, % 197. Petkim PVC production area 198. Petrochemical goods production, Petkim 199. Caustic import into Turkey, 2005, % 200. PVC consumption per capita in Iran, кг 201. PVC-S consumption in Iran, 2004, % 202. PVC producers shares in Iran, 2004, % 203. Main PVC importers to Iran, 2004, % 204. GDP in China, bln. USD 205. PVC consumption in China, mln. MT 206. China. PVC consumption per capita, kg 207. China. PVC market balance, mln. MT 208. Planed new PVC capacities in China 209. Average PVC production capacity in Asia, КТа 210. PVC capacities distribution in China 211. PVC market balance in China, 2004, % 212. PVC consumption in China, 2005, % 213. PVC deliveries to China, 2003, % 214. PVC export dependence from China deliveries 215. GDP in South Korea, bln . USD



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List of companies mentioned

1. Abadan Petrochemical Plant 2. Ajka 3. Alfa PVC 4. Alpro 5. Aluminipari 6. Aluplast 7. Aluplast Romania 8. Anwil 9. Arkema 10. Arvand 11. Atofina 12. Autobar Packaging Balkan 13. Basell Orlen Polyolefins 14. BBG Alum 15. BC-Ablakprofil 16. BC-Ongropack 17. Blick 18. BorsodChem 19. Budapesti Vegyim 20. Budimex SA 21. Budimex Unibud 22. Bulplast 23. Cangzhou 24. Catalytic Int 25. CEC 26. CEFIC 27. Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia 28. Central Statistical Bureau of Lithuania 29. Chematex 30. Chemopetrol 31. ChemOrbis 32. ChimComplex 33. CMAI 34. Cooling towers 35. Corina Gealan 36. CTIP 37. Czech Statistical Office 38. De Nora 39. De Nora 40. De Nora Permelec 41. Deceuninck 42. Decora 43. Devnya 44. Dioki 45. Dow 46. DSM 47. Dwory 48. Echo Investment 49. Elcabel 50. Elektrobosna E I 51. ERG Bierun 52. Ergis 53. Erpen 54. Escape 55. EVC 56. Exbud Skanska 57. Filpen 58. Firatpen 59. Formosa 60. Fulcrum Global Partners 61. Gamaplast 62. Gealan 63. Gealan Polska 64. Ghadir 65. Gotmar 66. Granpol 67. Hansaplast 68. Harriman Chemsult. 69. Heghmatane

70. Heimatieh 71. HIP 72. Hochtief Polska 73. Hungarian Central Statistical Office 74. Huyndai 75. Hydro 76. ICIS-LOR 77. Imam Khomeini 78. INCEL 79. Ineos 80. Instalplast-Lask 81. Iran Petrochemical Commerce Company 82. ITD 83. Kabro 84. Kaczmarek-2 85. Kapitan Diado Nikola 86. Kommerling 87. Kompen 88. Krupp Uhde 89. KWH Pipe 90. Lentex 91. LG Chem 92. Lipoplast Timisora 93. LVM 94. Matroz 95. Metalplast – Oboroniki 96. Michael Rigby Associates 97. Mitex SA 98. Mitsui Chem 99. Mitsui Eng 100. MOL 101. Mominakrepost 102. Mondo Style Timisoara 103. Mostostal Warszawa 104. Mostostal Zabrze Holding 105. Nafta Polska S.A. 106. National Bureau of Statistics of China 107. National statistic office of Republic of

Korea 108. National statistical institute of Bulgaria 109. Nexant 110. Ningxia West 111. Nitrokémia 2000 112. NCHZ 113. Ohis-Komerc 114. Oknoplast 115. Oltchim S.A. 116. OMV 117. Orianea 118. Pagev 119. Pakpen 120. Panorama Ablakgyarto 121. Penta-Group 122. Pestan 123. Petar Karaminchev 124. Petco 125. Petkim 126. Petkim Petrokimya Holding 127. Pimas 128. PipeLife 129. PKN Orlen 130. Plastchim 131. Plastcommerce 132. Plastform 133. Plastics Review 134. Plastsistem 135. Polimeri 136. Polinex 137. Polish Chamber of Chemical

Industry

138. Profil PVC 139. Profilink 140. Profine 141. Profine Romania 142. Pukad 143. PV Plastik 144. Qilu 145. Rehau 146. Romaplast 147. Samsung 148. Saponia 149. Seltra 150. Shell Chemicals 151. Shenyang 152. Shin Etsu 153. Sinochem 154. Slovnaft 155. Sodaso 156. Solvay Kemia 157. Solvin 158. Spolana 159. Spolek 160. Statistical Office of Estonia 161. Stigma 162. Stone & Webster Eng 163. Storgozia 164. Strabag 165. Suki Group 166. Tainyuan 167. TCT 168. Technip 169. Teolinoplast 170. Terraplast 171. ThyssenKrupp 172. Tianyuan Shanghai 173. Tovama 174. Tovarna KIH 175. Trocal 176. Turkish statistical institution 177. TVK 178. UCT 179. Unipetrol 180. Uponor 181. Uponor Polska 182. Valplast 183. Veka 184. Vestolit 185. Vias 186. Vinnolit 187. Warbud SA 188. Wavin 189. Wavin Metalplast 190. Weiss-Profil 191. World Bank 192. Xinjiang Tianye 193. Zachem 194. ZAW Tarnowie 195. ZC Oswiecim 196. ZC Rokita 197. ZC Zachem 198. Zelin 199. Zupa 200. KAR 201. Karpatneftechem 202. Lukoil-neftechem 203. Ministry of statistics and

analysis of Belarus’ Republic 204. Finance Ministry of Slovak



Resume

We would like to present our new report that has been worked out jointly by

two companies: Market Report Company (MRC) and Harriman Chemsult.

Collecting information for this report we found out that there were practically

no aggregated data on the PVC market for the countries of Eastern Europe (EE). As

a rule, reports pertain either to some certain countries or to a group of countries of

this region. We tried to fill this gap and compiled a general report that embraces all

countries of Eastern Europe. Now, our comprehensive analysis includes materials on

16 countries with the total population of 178 million. Furthermore, we paid special

attention to the influence exerted by neighboring countries, mainly by Turkey and

Russia.

Macroeconomic figures of Eastern European countries are quite positive

today. Within the recent six years the general GDP rate has been growing by 4-5%

annually. The volume of GDP, evaluated at the purchasing power parity rate,

constituted USD 1 825 billion in 2005, which corresponds to the current GDP rate of

Great Britain or France, for instance. By the year 2010, the GDP index per capita (in

current prices) would have exceeded the level of USD 7.6 thous. Moreover, in the

Czech Republic and in Hungary, this figure already now makes up USD 10 thous.,

and in Slovenia the GDP per capita will correspond to the current level of Spain and

Greece by 2010 (see Section 1).

The construction market in EE countries demonstrates positive dynamics as

well. We would like to draw your attention to the Polish construction market, which

holds about 44% of all construction volumes in the region. Since the EU is going to

grant about EUR 48 billion for the development of the Polish infrastructure by the

year 2012, we are looking forward to continuing growth of construction in Poland.

The PVC market in Eastern Europe is one of the fastest growing markets in

the world (see Section 2). Within the nearest five years the overall PVC

consumption will be increasing by 7-8% annually. The highest growth rates will be

observed in Romania, Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania. In 2010, the overall PVC

consumption in the region will exceed the level of 1.1 mln. MT, and the PVC

consumption per capita will approach to the world average level of 6.5 kg per

person.

Today, the Eastern European region is the net exporter of PVC. In 2004, the

export constituted 75% of the total output of PVC manufactured there. The biggest

exporters of PVC are Hungary, Romania and Poland. Despite of the dominating

domestic PVC manufacture, import of PVC to Eastern Europe increases in average

by 12% per year. The highest import figures are recorded in Poland (240 КТ),

Ukraine (80 КТ) and Hungary (31 КТ) – see Section 3.

Turkey is the main importer of PVC from Eastern Europe now. The market of

PVC in this country will be increasing by 8% annually, furthermore, the growth of

consumption right up to the year 2010 will be provided exclusively by the growth of

import supplies of PVC. Forecasting development of the EE market till the year

2010, we took into account possible increasing export opportunities of Iran (Section

For the first time we tried to embrace the

PVC market of all Eastern European

countries



©

10

4.1), which, in the future, may affect export supplies to Turkey of the biggest

Eastern European manufacturers such as Oltchim, BorsodChem and Anwil.

Since the PVC production is inseparably linked with the production of Chlor

Alkali products, VCM, EDC and ethylene, we made up balances of all these products

by each country of Eastern Europe, where PVC production facilities are located. At

present, the overall PVC production capacity is in general coordinated with that of

VCM. However, the utilization of the latter, not taking into account, the VCM plant in

Kalush, constitutes 96-98% today. Shall the PVC-S project in Kalush be realized

(the planned capacity is 300 KTa), by the year 2010, there may arise shortage of

VCM at the level of 120-150 KT in the market of Eastern Europe (see Section 3.6)

Reasoning from the existing and forecast balance of production capacities of

PVC, VCM, EDC, chlorine, caustic and ethylene, we analysed possibilities to increase

such capacities by each EE PVC manufacturer. We drew up balances for the entire

chain of products used in PVC production for Anwil, BorsodChem, Oltchim, Spolana,

NCHZ and Petkim. We analysed opportunities of Lukoil-Neftechem in view of PVC

production in Kalush, as well as that of Dioki on restoration of VCM and PVC

production.

The fourth Section of the Report (4.1 – 4.10) is entirely dedicated to the

detailed description of trends in consumption, production and foreign trade of PVC,

VCM and chlorine-caustic separately in each country of Eastern Europe. Studying

markets of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania and Turkey, we

separately analysed PVC consumption structure by processing sectors. Having

studied these data you may find out, for instance, that in terms of PVC profile

production per one thousand dwellings, EE countries are outstripping now many

states in Western Europe, and Poland in terms of this index is basically the All-

European leader. We analysed prospects of PVC processing in profile, pipe, cable

and flooring sectors separately by each Eastern European country.

Many experts forecast coming of Chinese PVC to the market of Eastern

Europe within the nearest three-four years, referring to supplies from China to

Turkey and Russia which already took place in 2005. We also analysed key trends in

the Chinese market (Section 5.2) and determined prospects of PVC export from this

country. Taking into account the inseparable link of the Chinese market with the

PVC export from Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, we tried to analyse the potential

of these countries in their search for new export opportunities in new regions,

including markets of Eastern European countries (Section 5.3).

All detailed data (GDP, demographics, construction volumes, consumption,

output, export and import of PVC, VCM, chlorine, caustic, etc.) by each Eastern

European country, including Turkey and Russia, over the period 2000 – 2010 are

presented in respective tables in Appendix to this report.

The report places emphasis on important issues of the

industry: development of PVC processing, VCM market

balance, influence of Turkey, Iran and China



...extract from report…

1. Macroeconomic Indexes of East European Countries

The economy of countries of the Eastern European region (hereinafter referred

to as EE) is one of the fastest developing economies in the world. The growth of

the GDP over the period 2005-2007 will make up a bit more than 5%, which is by

1.5 times more than average in the world, and by almost two times more than in

the countries of Western Europe (see D.1.1).

D.1.1. Growth of GDP in the world, %

6,3

5,3 54,4

2,31,8 2,1 2,2

7,1

6,2 6,2 6

6,9

4,84 3,84,1

3,1 3,1 3,2

4,33,5

33,5

0

2

4

6

8

2004 2005 2006 2007

Central&Eastern Europe Europe 25 Southeast Asia South America World USA

Source: CEFIC

According to the forecast of the World Bank, the growth of the GDP in 15

countries of Eastern Europe will be remaining at the level of 4% right up to the

year 2010.

The GDP per capita in the countries of Eastern Europe is not homogeneous

either. The highest level was recorded in Slovenia, the Czech Republic and

Hungary in 2004 (D. 1.9).

* in current prices Source: WorldBank

… It is of no less importance to consider distribution of GDP, calculated by

PPP (purchasing power parity). This index demonstrates the potential of

underestimated economies of Eastern Europe, which still undergo structural

changes.

... Among other markets we should single out the Hungarian market, which

is the leader in Eastern Europe in terms of construction per capita, and the market

D.1.9. GDP* in EE countries, 2004, USD bln.

Lithuania 22

Slovakia 41

Eastern Europe 825

Romania73

Czech Rep107

Hungary100 Poland

242

Ukraine65

Turkey302

Ex-Yugoslavia 104

Bulgaria 24

Slovenia 32

Russia582

0

5

10

15

20

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Population, mln. people

GDP per capita, 000 USD

The growth of the EE economy

will have constituted 4%

by 2010



©

12

of Lithuania, where the level of the specific construction is higher than in Russia,

Belarus and Ukraine taken together. The volumes of the construction market in

Turkey are by more than two times higher than the similar figures in Russia (D.

1.15).

Source: MRC

The construction market of Poland exceeds the Russian market in terms of

absolute indexes by more than 3.5 times. Besides, the volumes of Polish

construction are significant even comparing with progressive countries of the

world. Most probably, the construction market of Poland will continue to develop

very quickly in future, taking into consideration subsidies assigned by the EU in the

amount of EUR 48 billion for the period 2006-2012 meant for the development of

the general economic infrastructure.

Extremely high dynamics of the construction market is observed in the

Turkish market (only in 2004, the construction volume increased by 1.5 times

compared to 2003).

We should admit that the growth of the construction volumes in Russia,

Ukraine and Belarus are high as well. The construction market of Romania

demonstrates low growth rates. The Baltic States undergo rapid development of the

construction market. There has been some recession in the growth of the

construction volumes in Czech Republic within the recent years, however, by the

year 2008, will have been growing much faster than the same market in the

countries of Western Europe. The two countries of Eastern Europe – Poland and

Hungary – will remain the leaders in terms of construction growth rates.

D.1.15. Construction in EE, 2004, mln. sq.m.

Belarus

4

Hungary

46

Poland

142Czechia

30

Romania

30Turkey

94Russia

44

EE

265

Ukraine

8

Litva

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

0 30 60 90 120 150 180

Population, mln.

Construction

per capita, sq.m.

In Poland and in Hungary the

construction markets will be developing faster

than in any other European countries



D. 3.2.1. Consumption of PVC in EE, 2004, KT

EE

803 Slovakia

26 Lithuania

15

Estonia

3

Ех-Yugoslavia

71

Czechia

55

Poland

376

Turkey

588

Hungary

110

Ukraine

61

Bulgaria

16 Romania

45

Russia

448

Belarus

23

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Market growth, 99-04,%

PVC per capita, kg

D. 3.2.2. Consumption of PVC in EE, 2004

Slovakia

3%

Romania

6%

Croatia 1%

Czechia 7%

Ukraine

8%

Hungary

13%

Poland

46%

Slovenia 3%

Belarus 3%Macedonia 1%

Bulgaria 2%

Serbia and

Montenegro

4%

Baltic States 2%

...extract from report…

3. PVC Market in Eastern Europe

3.2. Consumption of PVC in East-European Countries

Inside of Eastern Europe, the PVC markets develop in accordance with

different scenarios (see D. 3.2.1). We can mark out markets with relatively low

level of PVC consumption per capita but with high growth rates: Russia, Lithuania,

Ukraine, Belarus, Romania. And vice versa, there are markets with the high level

of the specific consumption but with the stable dynamics such as Hungary and

Poland. There are countries with balanced consumption and dynamics such Turkey

and Slovakia. As well as there countries with relatively low specific consumption

and low growth rates such as Bulgaria, Serbia and Montenegro.

Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult

It is noteworthy that almost half of PVC consumed in Eastern Europe

belongs to the Polish market (D. 3.2.2). It is followed by the markets of Hungary

and Ukraine. In terms of their volumes the markets of Turkey and Russia together

surpass the market of Eastern Europe. In 2004 PVC consumption in Turkey

conforms to 75% of market in Eastern Europe, in Russia – to 60%.


PVC markets in different EE countries develop with different

dynamics

Sample page Please see full data in our Report

13



Differences in the consumption of PVC by the countries of Eastern Europe

will become more leveled (D. 3.2.3). The majority of markets are stabilized at the

level of 5%, and the annual growth at the level of … kg of PVC per capita. The

markets of Russia and Turkey will be separately corresponding already to 80% of

the EE market. The growth in Turkey will be stabilized at the level of 7-8%,

whereas in Russia the market will be demonstrating the annual growth at the level

of 11-12%.


In terms of PVC consumption Poland will remain an undisputable leader. The

Ukrainian market will be able to outstrip the Hungarian market in PVC consumption

volumes by 2010, and it will become the second regional market in Eastern Europe

(D. 3.2.4). The markets of Lithuania and Romania will be demonstrating quite high

growth rates.

The distinctive feature of some EE countries with the developed PVC

production (Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) is that the

classical formula for the definition of the actual PVC consumption “Consumption =

Production + Import - Export” is not quite correct for them. This is explained by

the fact that the domestic remainders of PVC of PVC producers in these countries

calculated as “Production minus Export” do not always correspond to the

consumption inside of the country…

D. 3.2.3. Consumption of PVC in EE, 2010, KT

Lithuania

26

Turkey

894

Russia

839EE

1 124

Ех-Yugoslavia

95

44

Slovakia

Estonia

5

Belarus

38

Ukraine

154

Bulgaria

31 Romania

89

Czechia

60

Hungary

109

Poland

472

0

3

6

9

12

15

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%Market growth, 05-10,%

PVC per capita, kg


D. 3.2.4. Consumption of PVC in EE, 2010

Poland

42%

Romania

6%

Slovakia

4%

Czechia 6%

Belarus 2%Bulgaria 2%Baltic States 2%

Ukraine

14%

Ex- Yugoslavia

11%

Hungary

11%

The Polish PVC market is the most capacious

in Eastern Europe



14



… extract from report…

А) Profile Market

The present volume of profile production in Europe exceeds the level of …

mln. MT. During 2000-2004, this sector increased by 30%. The markets of two

countries – Germany and Great Britain – provide more than two thirds of the

European PVC profile consumption (D. 3.2.9)

Source: MRC

There are more than 70 manufacturers in the industry, moreover, we can

single out top five companies (four companies are from Germany), which hold

more than a half of the total production volume:

Profine: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Russia

Veka: Germany, Great Britain, Poland, France, Spain, Russia

Rehau: Germany, Great Britain, Poland, France, Russia

Aluplast: Germany, Great Britain, Poland, Austria, Russia

Deceuninck: Germany, Great Britain, Poland, Belgium, France, Spain, Turkey

… Already now, the markets of Poland and Turkey surpass in terms of their

absolute indexes the market of France. And in terms of PVC profile consumption

per 1000 homes the East-European countries by far ahead of the markets of

Western Europe (D. 3.2.11).

Source: MRC

D. 3.2.9. Production of profile in Europe, 2003

Other

12%

Turkey

11%

Germany

38%

Great Britain

20%

Poland

7%

Russia

3%

Hungary

1%

France

8%

West-European profile manufacturers

actively develop the market of Eastern

Europe

D. 3.2.11. Consumption of PVC profile per 1000 homes, MT

0

4

8

12

16

Poland

Czechia

UK

Lithuania

Ireland

Turkey

Belgium

Slovenia

Latvia

Estonia

Austria

Slovakia

Hungary

Germ

any

France

Poland is the European leader in

terms of PVC consumption per

1000 homes





3.6 The Balance of the VCM Market in Eastern Europe

Since 2002, the volume of VCM production has always been surpassing the

level of the PVC production. Today, the existing VCM production capacities are

concentrated in six countries of Eastern Europe as well (Table 3.6.1).

Table 3.6.1. VCM production capacities in the EE countries, MT

Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Croatia

Hungary

Poland

Russia

Romania

Slovakia

Turkey

Ukraine

Czech Rep

Total EE


Today, the share of the leaders in the production of VCM (Ukraine, Poland

and Hungary) makes up 70% of the total volume of the VCM production capacities

in Eastern Europe …

The shortage of the VCM production capacities at BorsodChem, Anwil and

Oltchim is compensated by its surplus at Karpatneftechem in Kalush (Lukoil-

Neftechem Group) …

… In case Kalush launches own PVC-S production in 2009 with the capacity

300 Kta, the balance of the PVC/VCM in Eastern Europe can be broken. The

shortage of the VCM production capacities may make up about … KTa by 2010 (D.

3.6.9).

Source: MRC


The workload of the VCM production

capacities is by 10% higher than that for

PVC

D. 3.6.9. PVC/VCM production capacities in EE, KT

129014401437 1437 1397

1237

1442 14421602 1602

1290

1008

17251725

11251026

10921105 1158

1602

13421252

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

PVC VCMSample page

Please see full data in our Report




4. PVC Market by Countries of Eastern Europe

4.1 Poland

The Polish PVC market has been growing with the average annual speed

6.5% within the recent six years. The overall PVC consumption will make up … KT

by 2010. In terms of this index, the Polish market is the leader in Eastern Europe

(D. 4.1.2.1).


… Supplies of imported PVC constitute 64% of its consumption; the export

makes up almost half of the manufactured PVC (Table 4.1.2.1).

Table 4.1.2.1. PVC market in Poland, MT

Index 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*

Capacities

Production

Import

Export

Consumption

Import into consumption

Export to consumption

* assessment Source: MRC / Harriman Chemsult

… According to our estimations, the Polish PVC-S market, during 2006-

2010, will be developing mainly due to the growth of processing in the profile

manufacturing sector. The markets of pipes and cable will preserve their existing

volumes (D. 4.1.2.6).

Source: BorsodChem/ MRC

D. 4.1.2.1. Consumption of PVC in Poland, KT

291 268305 328

376418 437 450 461 472

399

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


D. 4.1.2.6. Poland. Consumption of PVC-S by markets, KT

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

pipes films / sheets cable profile

Poland is the biggest East European PVC

net importer as well





а) Profile Market

At present, PVC windows are the leaders in the Polish window market (D.

4.1.2.8).

In 2004, the overall production of doors and windows in money terms made

up almost USD 2 billion. The export of doors and windows constituted EUR 280

mln. in 2004, 70% of them were windows and doors made of wood. Today, there

are about 90 enterprises in this sector with the overall number of employees more

than 120 thousand persons.

There are such biggest European manufacturers of PVC profile as Rehau,

Aluplast, Gealan, ThyssenKrupp. There are also large Polish companies: Roplasto,

Metalplast, Oknoplast, Profil PVC. (Table 4.1.2.4).

Table 4.1.2.4. Manufacturers of window profile in Poland, 2004, USD, mln.

Company Proceeds Profit Margin

Rehau Sp. z. o.o.

Aluplast Sp. z. o.o.

Oknoplast Sp. z. o.o.

Profil PVC Sp. z. o.o.

ThyssenKrupp Alpex Plastics Sp. z. o.o.

Gealan Polska Sp. z. o.o.

Source: Plastics Review

Source: MRC

D.4.1.2.8. Structure of window sales in Poland, %

PVC40%

Wooden30%

Aluminum15%

Other15%

The biggest European players are leading in Polish profile market





D. 4.2.2.8. PVC profile production in Hungary, KT

0

10

20

30

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

…extract from report…

4.2 Hungary

… Hungary is the biggest net exporter of PVC in Eastern Europe. The ratio of

export to the overall production volume constitutes 80%; and in absolute terms

the level of export exceeds the level of … KT (D.4.2.2.4).


Despite of the high level of the domestic PVC production, the Hungarian

market is supplied with more than … KT of imported PVC. Today, the share of

import in the total consumption exceeds the level of …% (Table 4.2.2.1).

Table 4.2.2.1. PVC market in Hungary, MT

Index 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*

Capacities

Production

Import

Export

Consumption **

Import into consumption

Export to production

* assessement ** according to formula: production + import and export


… Within the recent five years the Hungarian profile production increased by

2.5 times. It is expected that this sector will be demonstrating positive dynamics

further on (D. 4.2.2.8).

Source: BorsodChem

BorsodChem subdivision – BC-Ablakprofil – is one of the biggest players in

the Hunagarian market of profiles. In 2004, its sales level exceeded …KT; 37% of

them are supplied for export. The market share of profiles for the window system

Panorama (BC-Ablakprofil brand) constitutes 40-45%. Panorama’s subdivision–

Ablakgyarto es Formalgaso – manufactured … thous. m. of PVC windows

(consumption of about … MT of profiles).

D. 4.2.2.4. Hungary. PVC market components, KT

264 267 275 268 272

44 49 58 59 63

212 229 219 233 216

0

100

200

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Production Import Export


Hungary is the biggest exporter of

PVC in Eastern Europe






4.4 The Czech Republic

4.4.4 The Balance of the VCM, Ethylene, Chlorine and Caustic Markets

The PVC production in Neratovice is a good example of equilibration of the

entire production chain. The overall chlorine production capacities at the enterprise

constitute 135 KTa (the plant was built in 1975 in compliance with the technology

of De Nora). The PVC production capacity is 132 KTa (Huels). EDC (capacity - 200

KTa) / VCM (capacity - 135 KTa) plant was built according to the technology of

Stauffer. The product mix of the enterprise includes both suspension PVC and its

compounds (the volume of compound production constituted about 5 KT in 2004).

Apart from Spolana, chlorine production capacities are also located at

Spolek. Their overall load made up 62% in 2004 (Table 4.4.4.1).

Table 4.4.4.1. Chlorine market in Czech Republic, MT

Index 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*

Capacities

Production

Import

Export

Consumption

* assessment Source: Harriman Chemsult

PVC production is the main consumer of chlorine (Table 4.4.4.2).

Table 4.4.4.2. Consumption of chlorine in Czech Republic by industries, KT

Product 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2007*

Vinyls

C2 Chloroethanes

Other organics

Non-organics

Other

Total


Consumption of caustic in Czech Republic constitutes … KT; import (mainly,

from Hungary) does not exceed … KT; and export in the amount of … KT mainly

belongs to Germany and Austria (Table 4.4.4.4).

Table 4.4.4.4. Caustic market in Czech Republic, MT

Index 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005*

Capacities

Production

Import

Export

Consumption


In caustic supplies Spolana mainly concentrates on export; and Spolek is

more oriented towards the work in the domestic market. Production of paper is the

main consumer.


PVC production in Czech Republic is

well balanced






4.10 Turkey

4.10.2 PVC Consumption

PVC market in Turkey develops very quickly. Within the recent six years it

has been growing in average by 14% annually. The overall PVC consumption

would run up to the level of … KT by the year 2010 (D. 4.10.2.1). According to the

forecast of Petkim, the PVC market in 2010 would constitute … KT.


There is PVC production capacities shortage in the country. The level of

PVC import makes up 75% in total consumption volume. The Turkish market will

remain the biggest net importer in the region right up to 2010. By this time, the

import of PVC may have constituted … KT. Turkey is the most important market

for Romanian Oltchim and Hungarian BorsodChem. Export of Romanian PVC to

Turkey made up 95 KT, Hungarian – 26 KT in 2004. (D. 4.10.2.5).

Source: MRC

There are sixty profile systems producers and almost five thousand plastic

windows producers in Turkey. The biggest profile producers are Pimas, Filpen,

Pakpen, Kompen, Erpen, Firatpen. By Pukad estimation, profile production

capacities made up … KT and its total production volume - … KT in 2005. At the

same time more than … KT of profiles were exported to other countries. Three

sectors of PVC processing provided more than … KT of export deliveries in 2004.

As well as in other countries of Eastern Europe, PVC consumption growth

leader is profile sector. According to market experts, there are no objective

reasons for PVC consumption volumes decrease. It is expected the new capacities

input.

D. 4.10.2.1. PVC consumption in Turkey KT

447351

424480

588700

753 803 853 894

654

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Turkey will still be the biggest net-importer

in the region


D.4.10.2.5. First five PVC importers into Turkey, КТ

0

50

100

Romania Hungary Germany Poland Italy

2002 2003 2004



… extract from report …

5. Influence of other regions on PVC market of Eastern Europe

5.1 Iran

… Today, the demand of the Iran PVC market meets mainly with domestic

production. The share of import in the general consumption structure constituted

about 12% in 2004 (Table 5.1.1).

Table 5.1.1 PVC market in Iran, КТ

Index 2001 2002 2003 2004

Production

Import

Export

Consumption

Source: MRC

The leading PVC suppliers to Iranian market are two local companies: Iran

Petrochemical Commerce Company (IPCC) и Abadan Petrochemical Plant

(D.5.1.3).

… In the nearest future, the country plans to put into operation new PVC

production capacities at the level of … KTa. The launch of the production Arvand

(330 KT) in 2009 will be the biggest project. As well, in 2009, Heghmatane is

planning to start production of emulsion PVC with the capacity 40 KTa (Table

5.1.2). The overall PVC production capacities in the country will make up more

than … KTa in 2009. At the same time, consumption of PVC will run up to … KT per

year in 2010 (Table 5.1.3).

Table 5.1.3 PVC market in Iran, 2004-2010, КТ

Index 2004 2005* 2006* 2007* 2008* 2009* 2010*

Production

Import

Export

Consumption

* forecast Source: MRC

According to the estimations of experts, Irani export opportunities will make

up about … KT per year already in 2009. One of the crucial issues is how Irani

companies are going to distribute their export supplies.

The net export of PVC from Iran will make up 370 KT in 2010

D.5.1.3. The share of PVC producers in Iran, 2004, %

Сауд. Аравия6%

other1%

Abadan22%

Western Europe3%

IPCC68%

Source: MRC




22



….extract from report…

5.2 China

… At present, China is the biggest world importer of petrochemical products.

In the opinion of Nexant, China manufactures only half of the overall volume of

consumed base polymers. About 42% of the total volumes of the world PE export

belong to China. The similar situation is with polypropylene, polystyrene and PVC.

Overall PVC consumption demonstrates extremely high growth rates. The

annual growth within the recent six years constituted about 10-11%. It is expected

that within the following decade the overall consumption of PVC would increase by

two times. By the year 2010, China will be consuming about …mln. MT of PVC (D.

5.2.2).

Source: MRC

It is expected great changes in the structure of PVC deliveries to Chinese

market. PVC import will decrease more than in five times, at the same time its

domestic production volume will increase in 1.9 times up to 2010.It is declared

more than thirty projects in PVC, VCM, EDC capacities expansion up to 2006.

...Because of differences in opinions about China between West-European

analytics, we decided to use Chinese company marketing information. According to

Sinochem today PVC consumption makes up about 24% in profile market and 21%

in pipes market. Because of fast growth of domestic PVC production, China may

soon become independent player in the world export market. The influence of

Chinese exporters during price differences conservation in internal and external

markets will be especially great. Chinese PVC today has already appeared in the

markets of Turkey and Russia.

South Korea, Taiwan and Japan will be the main victims of Chinese PVC

import structure changes. During the biggest PVC import into China, the share of

these three countries made up 64% of total import deliveries. PVC export from

China made up … KT in 1Q 2006: about ...КТ were delivered to Turkey, ... КТ – to

India, ... КТ – to Korea, ... КТ – to Egypt and … KT – to Russia.

Analysts of Sinochem expect that Turkey and South America will become

the most attractive areas for export of Chinese PVC by the year 2010. With the

growth of the Chinese export, we may only await where they are going to direct

PVC from Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan.

D. 5.2.2. PVC consumption in China, mln. MT

4,8 5,3 5,7 6,3 7,08,3 8,9 9,4 9,7 10,1

7,8

0

5

10

15

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


PVC production growth in China will change its

deliveries structure in all other region markets

Chinese PVC has already appeared in the markets of

Turkey and Russia

23



Appendix



25

estimation

forecast

Table A-3. GDP per capita, USD (in current prices)

Country 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 2 009 2 010

Belarus’

Bulgaria

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania

Macedonia

Poland

Russia

Romania

Serbia and Montenegro

Slovakia

Slovenia

Turkey

Ukraine

Croatia

Czech Republic

Estonia

Total EE*

* Here and further not including Russia and Turkey Source: World Bank




26

Table A-5. PVC resin consumption, MT

Country 2 000 2 001 2 002 2 003 2 004 2 005 2 006 2 007 2 008 2 009 2 010

Belarus’

Bulgaria

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania

Macedonia

Poland

Russia

Romania


Slovakia

Slovenia

Turkey

Ukraine

Croatia

Czech Republic

Estonia

Total EE

Source: MRC/Harriman Chemsult




27

Table A-10. PVC production, MT

Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Hungary

Poland

Russia

Romania

Slovakia

Turkey

Ukraine

Czech Republic

Total EE


Table A-13. VCM capacities, MT

Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Croatia

Hungary

Poland

Russia

Romania

Slovakia

Turkey

Ukraine

Czech Republic

Total EE






28

Table A-14. Chlorine consumption, MT

Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Belarus’

Bulgaria


Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania

Poland

Romania

Slovakia

Ukraine

Czech Republic

Estonia

Russia

Turkey

Total EE





29

Table A-18. Caustic consumption, MT

Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Belarus’

Bulgaria


Hungary

Latvia

Lithuania

Poland

Russia

Romania

Slovakia

Turkey

Ukraine

Czech Republic

Estonia

Total EE



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