pv expo tokyo 26 02 2014 sinke
DESCRIPTION
Development of photovoltaics (PV)TRANSCRIPT
www.ecn.nl
Silicon photovoltaics: prepared for terawatts Wim Sinke
ECN Solar Energy
PV EXPO 2014
Tokyo, Japan
26 February 2014
Contents
• Silicon photovoltaics: mature, yet young – half a century of development and much more to come
• Entering the terawatt regime within a decade – opportunities and challenges
• Shaping the future – technology contributions from ECN and its partners
• Outlook – a bird’s eye view
2
Contents
• Silicon photovoltaics: mature, yet young – half a century of development and much more to come
• Entering the terawatt regime within a decade – opportunities and challenges
• Shaping the future – technology contributions from ECN and its partners
• Outlook – a bird’s eye view
3
First Solar HyET Solar Würth Solar / Manz
Cell & module technologies
Commercial
4
Flat plate: wafer-based silicon (90%) - monocrystalline - multicrystalline & quasi mono
Module efficiencies 14 22%
Toyota City of the Sun (NL)
Concentrator (<1%) - multi-junction III-V semiconductors - silicon
Module efficiencies 25 33%
Abengoa/Concentrix FhG-ISE
Flat plate: thin films (10%) - cadmium telluride (CdTe) - copper-indium/gallium-diselenide/sulphide (CIGSS) - silicon
Module efficiencies 7 14%
Concepts & technologies: lab and
pilot production (incl. “nanotechnology at km2 scale“)
• super-high-efficiency concepts (incl. combinations of existing technologies)
– more complete use of solar spectrum (optimize cell or modify spectrum)
– advanced light management (incl. macro- and micro-concentration)
• super-low-cost concepts (& technologies for new applications)
5
Example: spectrum conversion using
quantum dots (Univ. of Amsterdam)
Example: polymer solar cell (Solliance)
Commercial module efficiencies (selection)
History + short-term projections (announced)
wafer Si IBC
wafer Si IBC
wafer Si mono wafer Si HIT
wafer Si multi CdTe
CIGS
tf a/µcSi
tf aSi
wafer Si IBC
M.J. de Wild-Scholten SmartGreenScans
(June 2013)
Commercial module efficiencies (selection)
History + short-term projections (announced)
wafer Si IBC
wafer Si IBC
wafer Si mono wafer Si HIT
wafer Si multi CdTe
CIGS
tf a/µcSi
tf aSi
wafer Si IBC
M.J. de Wild-Scholten SmartGreenScans
(June 2013)
Commercial module efficiencies (selection)
History + short-term projections (announced)
wafer Si IBC
wafer Si IBC
wafer Si mono wafer Si HIT
wafer Si multi CdTe
CIGS
tf a/µcSi
tf aSi
wafer Si IBC
M.J. de Wild-Scholten SmartGreenScans
(June 2013)
25% at low cost in 2020?
Commercial module efficiencies History + long-term projections (simplified estimates)
Wafer-based silicon technologies:
a variety of options (selection)
10
Conductivity type
Crystal type Contact geometry
Junction geometry
Junction type
Light collection
Identity
P-type N-type
Multi Quasi-mono Mono
Front & rear Front Homo Front Today’s workhorse: monofacial
Front & rear Today’s workhorse: bifacial version
Hetero Front HJT / HIT (today’s high end)
Front & rear
Rear -
Rear Front Homo Front Metal Wrap-Through (MWT) (emerging) Front & rear
Hetero Front HJ-MWT (novel)
Front & rear
Rear Homo Front Interdigitated Back Contact (IBC) (today’s high end)
Front & rear
Hetero Front HJ-IBC (novel)
Front & rear -
Technology evolution in
wafer silicon based PV
front junction, front & rear
contacts
front-to-rear tabbing
typical module
efficiency range & TRL
cells
modules
17-21% 20-23% 22-25% 25-30% 30-35+% TRL 7-9 TRL 5-8 TRL 4-5 TRL 2-3 TRL 1-2
front junction, rear contacts
MWT
foil-based inter-
connection
rear junction, rear contacts
IBC
foil-based inter-
connection
IBC + thin-film 4-terminal
tandem
hybrid inter-connection
wafer-silicon + thin-film 2-terminal
tandem
t.b.d.
Technology evolution in
wafer silicon based PV
front junction, front & rear
contacts
front-to-rear tabbing
cells
modules
front junction, rear contacts
MWT
foil-based inter-
connection
rear junction, rear contacts
IBC
foil-based inter-
connection
IBC + thin-film 4-terminal
tandem
hybrid inter-connection
wafer-silicon + thin-film 2-terminal
tandem
t.b.d.
alternatives: bifacial,
heterojunction
alternative: bifacial
alternatives: bifacial, ultra-thin,
heterojunction
alternatives: ultra-thin,
heterojunction, spectrum converters
alternatives: bifacial, printed interconnection
alternatives: printed
interconnection
alternatives: ultra-thin,
spectrum converters
alternatives: bifacial
heterojunction
alternatives: bifacial
Towards and beyond 25% 1-sun
module efficiency at competitive cost
• Bring wafer-silicon technology to perfection (to 25%) – ST/MT – reduce process complexity and cost of current high-end technologies
– combine key features of current high-end technologies (e.g. rear hetero-junction, rear contact)
– use ultra-thin wafers + advanced light management
• Combine the best of two worlds (beyond 25%) - MT – high-efficiency wafer-silicon + wide-gap thin-film technology (2- or 4-terminal one-
sun tandem)
• Novel routes (to and beyond 25%) - MT/LT – high-efficiency wafer-silicon + spectrum converters
– other multi-gap approaches (bulk, quantum dots, nanowires, etc.)
– other high-efficiency approaches ( multi carrier, hot carrier, intermediate band, etc.)
13
Challenge: combine the best of two
worlds for a record efficiency
14 (Dec. 2013)
Advanced light management for high
efficiency silicon cells
15
Advanced light management for
ultra-thin solar cells (1)
16
Advanced light management for
ultra-thin solar cells (2)
17
Towards and beyond 25% 1-sun
module efficiency at competitive cost
• Bring wafer-silicon technology to perfection (to 25%) – ST/MT – reduce process complexity and cost of current high-end technologies
– combine key features of current high-end technologies (e.g. rear hetero-junction, rear contact)
– use ultra-thin wafers + advanced light management
• Combine the best of two worlds (beyond 25%) - MT – high-efficiency wafer-silicon + wide-gap thin-film technology (2- or 4-terminal one-
sun tandem)
• Novel routes (to and beyond 25%) - MT/LT – high-efficiency wafer-silicon + spectrum converters
– other multi-gap approaches (bulk, quantum dots, nanowires, etc.)
– other high-efficiency approaches ( multi carrier, hot carrier, intermediate band, etc.)
18
Silicon wafer based tandems
19
Silicon wafer based tandems
20
Silicon wafer based tandems
Challenges:
• Tandem module needs to be more efficient than silicon module
(higher energy output) – high quality, wide-gap top cell needed
• Tandem needs to be cost competitive – cost increase should be compensated by efficiency gain (at system level)
• Tandem module needs to meet high standards of existing silicon modules (lifetime and stability) – severe demands on top cell
21
Commercial module efficiencies History + long-term projections (simplified estimates)
Towards and beyond 25% 1-sun
module efficiency at competitive cost
• Bring wafer-silicon technology to perfection (to 25%) – ST/MT – reduce process complexity and cost of current high-end technologies
– combine key features of current high-end technologies (e.g. rear hetero-junction, rear contact)
– use ultra-thin wafers + advanced light management
• Combine the best of two worlds (beyond 25%) - MT – high-efficiency wafer-silicon + wide-gap thin-film technology (2- or 4-terminal one-
sun tandem)
• Novel routes (to and beyond 25%) - MT/LT – high-efficiency wafer-silicon + spectrum converters
– other multi-gap approaches (bulk, quantum dots, nanowires, etc.)
– other high-efficiency approaches ( multi carrier, hot carrier, intermediate band, etc.)
23
Nanotechnology for high-efficiency PV:
finding the way in a jungle of options
24
Example: spectrum shaping to boost
efficiency (“add-on” to solar cells)
26 Courtesy: Tom Gregorkiewicz (Univ. of Amsterdam)
Commercial module efficiencies History + long-term projections (simplified estimates)
Contents
• Silicon photovoltaics: mature, yet young – half a century of development and much more to come
• Entering the terawatt regime within a decade – opportunities and challenges
• Shaping the future – technology contributions from ECN and its partners
• Outlook – a bird’s eye view
28
Multi-terawatt use
Challenges and opportunities
• Competitive generation costs – typically 0.05 0.10 €/kWh (or below)
<0.51 €/Wp turn-key system price including sustainable margins
0.20.5 €/Wp module price
• High efficiency – cost reduction lever at all levels
– facilitates large-scale use
• From renewable to fully sustainable – Materials & processes
– Design for sustainability
• Total quality
Sustainability
Materials
Introduction of new materials driven by (potential) scarcity, by high prices or by price risks, e.g.: silver copper
30
x7 in 7 years
Total quality
• All levels and aspects: components, systems, installers, production processes, etc.
• Need for coordination, information and communication
• High priority in R&D and industry
31
Contents
• Silicon photovoltaics: mature, yet young – half a century of development and much more to come
• Entering the terawatt regime within a decade – opportunities and challenges
• Shaping the future – technology contributions from ECN and its partners
• Outlook – a bird’s eye view
32
Selected innovations from the Netherlands
• Integrated cell & module design: Metal Wrap-Through (MWT) back-contact technology (ECN, Eurotron, a.o.)
• n-type silicon for high-efficiency, cost-competive cells and modules, mono- and bifacial (ECN, Tempress, a.o.) e.g. Yingli Panda module series
• Advanced light management using nanopatterns (AMOLF, ECN, a.o.)
• More on the way
33
Integrated cell and module
architecture: MWT cell
34
Base: p Base: p n+
Base: p n+
Base: p n+ n+
emitter
rear Al
ARC
MWT Ag
Front Rear
Integrated cell and module
architecture: MWT module
35
4*4 via designInterdigitated Cu foilCA interconnection
Compatible with ultra-thin cells Low cell-to-module losses
Fast single-shot manufacturing
Ongoing MWT innovations
• Replace copper by aluminum in conductive foil
• Reduce encapsulant thickness and consumption of conductive adhesives
• Increase number of vias to further reduce losses and silver consumption
36
Excellent aesthetics and many front
pattern design options
37
ECN’s Black Beauty
technology only
technology ánd design
Contents
• Silicon photovoltaics: mature, yet young – half a century of development and much more to come
• Entering the terawatt regime within a decade – opportunities and challenges
• Shaping the future – technology contributions from ECN and its partners
• Outlook – a bird’s eye view
38
The future of PV at a glance (rounded figures)
Current 2020
Long-term
potential
Commercial module efficiency flat
plate/concentrator (%) 722 / 2533 1025 / 3038 2050
Turn-key system price
(€/Wp)
13 (upper values for
specials)
()0.81.5 (with sustainable
margins)
0.51
Typical cost of electricity
(LCoE, €/kWh)
0.050.30 (range related to
investment and
insolation)
0.040.15 0.030.10
Energy pay-back time (yrs) 0.52 0.251 0.250.5
Installed capacity (TWp) 0.1 0.5 10++
The future of PV at a glance (rounded figures)
Current 2020
Long-term
potential
Commercial module efficiency flat
plate/concentrator (%) 722 / 2533 1025 / 3038 2050
Turn-key system price
(€/Wp)
13 (upper values for
specials)
()0.81.5 (with sustainable
margins)
0.51
Typical cost of electricity
(LCoE, €/kWh)
0.050.30 (range related to
investment and
insolation)
0.040.15 0.030.10
Energy pay-back time (yrs) 0.52 0.251 0.250.5
Installed capacity (TWp) 0.1 0.5 10++
x 23
x ½⅓
x 100++
Acknowledgements
Thank you:
• colleagues at ECN Solar Energy, AMOLF and University of Amsterdam;
• industry and research partners in the Netherlands and throughout the world;
• members of the European Photovoltaic Technology Platform;
for excellent work, vision and fruitful discussions.
41
42 City of the Sun, Municipality Heerhugowaard, NL (photo Kuiper Compagnons)