Pulse of the Nation

September, 2010

In this Report..

1 Background

4

2

3

5

Demographics

Executive Summary

The Results

Contact details

Table of ContentsGauging the pulse of the nation…

Research Background

As the present political dispensation nears its end, it has become imperative that the pulse

of the people be gauged to find out their level of satisfaction or otherwise with the

performance of the present government and compare it with the past administration with a

view to determining which groups will receive the highest followership come 2011elections.

Furthermore, there is need for prospective political office holders to understand the

yearnings and aspirations of the people they are to serve and also identify the shortcomings

of people they hope to unseat with a view to gaining an advantage.

It is against this background that RMS commissioned an opinion survey to get people’s

views on different political issues.

Thus this report contains detailed findings from this survey.

Who?

Where?

When?

Random: A representative sample of 5000 adult Nigerians aged

between 18 years and above. The sample reflected the

population demographics and was selected via a Modified

Multi-Stage Random Procedure with quota allocation for each

state.

June to July, 2010

How?Quantitative research technique via face-to-face personal

interviews using a fully structured questionnaire in respondents’

homes

37 states including the Federal Capital Territory. Interviewswere conducted in both urban and rural locations

Methodology

What? National Survey

Sample

Size5000 %

GenderMale 2540 50.8

Female 2460 49.2

Age

18-20 yrs 743 14.8

21-25 yrs 988 19.7

26-30 yrs 1195 23.9

31-40 yrs 1267 25.3

41-50 yrs 538 10.7

51+ yrs 278 5.6

SEC

AB 98 1.9

C1 197 4

C2 886 17.8

DE 3819 76.3

Region

Lagos 247 4.9

West 940 18.8

North 2553 51.1

East 1260 25.2

National Respondent Characteristics

Field Work in 37 states and FCT

Respondent Characteristics

Respondent Profiles..1/3

25 2421

15

10

5

26-30 yrs 31-40 yrs 21-25 yrs 18-20 yrs 41-50 yrs 51+ yrs

Respondent Age

50 50

Male Female

Gender

Respondent Profiles…2/3

5246

2

Married Single Widowed

3 7

24

66

AB C1 C2 DE

Marital Status

Social Economic Class

Executive Summary 2/6

59

41

Catholic Protesant

59

41

Christian Muslim

Religion

Type of Christianity

Executive Summary 1/5

Governance and Politics

Corruption is the biggest problem facing Nigeria at the moment, this is followed by poor amenities

(Electricity and water), escalating crime rate and education.

Asked about how the government is performing, 18% said the Government was performing

satisfactorily, 48% said the Government was somewhat performing, while 3% said its performance was

declining.

30% of Nigerians said they were very confident the new cabinet appointed by President Goodluck

Jonathan, would perform satisfactorily, 39% said they were somewhat confident, while 10% said they were

not at all confident the new cabinet would make a difference.

Asked if there was respect for rule of law in the country, 39% of Nigerians said they believed there was

respect for rule of law, 30% said there is somewhat respect for rule of law, while 31% said there was no

respect for rule of law in the country.

Asked about the responsiveness of the Government to their needs, 19% said the Government was

responsive to their needs, 35% said it was somewhat responsive, while 46% said it was not responsive to

their needs.

Executive Summary 2/5

In terms of infrastructural development, the Nigerian Government was rated low on, Dam

construction, Employment Creation, Poverty eradication, Management of resources, Economic development

and fight against corruption.

Respondents were further asked what they thought were notable achievements since the Democratic

Government came to power in Nigeria, majority of respondents mentioned; Road network, Provision of street

lighting, Primary Health Care and fight against corruption through (EFCC)

The Presidency

Respondents were asked to give their feelings about the President’s performance since he took office.

52% of Nigerians said his performance to date was satisfactory, 20% said his performance was static, while

3% said his performance was going down.

Respondents were asked to air their feelings about the appointment of Namadi Sambo as the Vice

President of Nigeria. 43% of respondents said he was the right candidate for the job, 5% said he was not the

right candidate, while 51% of respondents refused to give their feelings on the issue.

43% who endorsed the Vice President as the right candidate said he had done a sterling job while

Governor of Kaduna state (31%), while 27% said he was honest and transparent.

Executive Summary 3/5

Those opposed to his appointment were asked to give supporting reasons for their stance. 31% said he

was a political novice, while 26% said there was no meaningful development in Kaduna while he was the

Governor.

Asked about key development areas the President should focus on during his short tenure, 69% said he

should put adequate arsenal to fight corruption, 55% want him to focus on amenities such as electricity and

water, while 52% said his government should revamp the education sector.

81% of Nigerians said the President should contest the 2011 polls, 4% were opposed to his

candidacy, while 15% of respondents were undecided. It is important to note that the President’s approval to

contest cuts across region, age, gender and social economic class.

Respondents in support of his candidature (81%), were asked to give supporting reasons for their stance.

47% said the President had performed above expectations since he came into office, 29% said the President

had the ability to transform Nigeria into a prosperous nation, while 25% said he was transparent and

incorruptible.

A few (4%) against his candidature were also asked to back up their stance. 22% said the President was

not from their party, 15% said he should give others an opportunity, while 10% said he was not from the

North. These respondents were mainly form the Northern states of Jigawa, Kaduna, kano, Sokoto and

Bauchi.

Executive Summary 4/5

Voting and Political party Affiliation

The ruling Party, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has the highest patronage (47%), followed at a far

distance by Action Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) and All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP)

When asked the party they voted for in 2007, majority of respondents (43%) said they had voted for

PDP, 10% said they had voted for ACPN, while 7% had voted for ANPP. Asked which party they would vote

for in 2011 Presidential poll, 48% said they would vote for PDP, 8% ACPN and 5% said they would vote for

ANPP. 30% of respondents refused to disclose their intentions.

81% of respondents said they were going to register to participate in the forth coming general elections in

2011, 10% said they were not going to register, while 9% were undecided.

Asked if they would vote in 2011, 55% said they would definitely vote, 28% said they would probably

vote, while 8% said they would definitely not vote, these respondents were mainly from urban areas in

Lagos, Abuja and Kano.

44% of respondents said the outcome of the 2011 polls will definitely not be free and fair, 18% said the

outcome of the poll would be free and fair, while 13% refused to give their opinion on this matter

Executive Summary 4/5

Voting and Political party Affiliation

Asked about what they looked for in a Presidential candidate before deciding to vote for him, 63% said

they considered the candidate’s caliber, 33% mentioned the candidate’s Political affiliation (Party), 31% first

consider the candidate/party’s political ideology, while 27% said they considered the party’s manifesto.

**Respondents were asked to profile their expectations from the new Government coming to power in

2011. 77% of respondents said the Government should focus on creating employment, 68% said they

should focus on stabilizing the power sector, 57% want to see definitive effort in eradicating poverty, while

51% want to see the Government providing free qualitative education in the country.

** Findings from this question were based on multiple responses. Hence, the total does not add up to 100%.

The Research Findings….

The detailed Findings

Problems Facing Nigeria at the moment…

QG1. What do you think are the key national problems facing Nigeria at the moment?

Challenges (%)

Corruption 71

Amenities (water, electricity) 44

Crime 43

Education 39

Poor infrastructure 36

Inflation 35

Healthcare 31

Unemployment 2

Fuel crisis 1

Base: 5000

■ Corruption is the biggest Problem facing Nigeria, followed by Amenities, Crime and Education…

Opinion about Government Performance

QG2. Which of the following phrases represent your opinion about the current democratic government in Nigeria?

48

26

18

53

Somewhat Performing well

Stayed the same Performing satisfactorily

Got a little worse Got a lot worse

Base: all respondents

18% believe the Government is performing satisfactorily, 48% believe the Government is

performing somewhat well, while 3% said its performance has declined.

Perceptions about Recently Appointed cabinet…

QG3. How Confident Are You The New Cabinet Appointed by President Jonathan Will Bring Change in Nigeria?

30

39

21

10Very confident

Somewhat confident

Not very confident

Not at all confident

30% of respondents said they were very confident the new cabinet will perform, 39% said they were

somewhat confident, while 10% said they were not at all confident with the new cabinet

Base: 5000

Perceptions about Respect for rule of law…….

Q1G4 . How would you rate the respect for rule of law in Nigeria today?

13

2630 31

Well respected Respected Somewhat respected

Not respected at all

Base: 5000

39% of respondents said they believe there is respect of rule of law in Nigeria, 30% said they

believe rule of law is somewhat respected , while 31% said there was no respect for rule of law in

the country.

Responsiveness of Nigerian Government to People’s needs

G4B .How responsive do you feel the democratic government of Nigerian is to your needs?

19

35

2521

Very responsive Somewhat responsive Not very responsive Not at all responsive

19% said the Government is very responsive to their needs, 35% said it was somewhat responsive, while 46%

said the Government was not responsive to their needs.

Base: 5000

Government Performance rating

Positive

RatingExcellent Very Good Good Poor

Road Network 66 9 17 40 34

Provision of street lights 57 5 15 37 43

Construction of drainage systems 51 3 14 34 49

Provision of Primary Health Care 60 4 17 39 40

Provision of educational infrastructure 54 3 14 37 46

Provision of health professionals 52 3 14 35 48

Security and law enforcement 50 4 12 34 50

Provision of clean water to citizens 47 3 11 33 53

Construction of dams 42 2 9 31 58

Employment creation 36 1 8 27 64

Poverty eradication 35 2 7 26 65

Management of state resources 44 2 9 33 56

Inviting local and foreign investors 47 3 11 33 53

Economic development 44 2 9 33 56

Fight Corruption 43 3 10 30 57

Government was rated low on; Dam construction, Employment creation, Poverty eradication, management of

resources, Economic development and fight against corruption

Base: 5000

Government Achievements

QG6: What Has Been The Achievement of The Current Democratic Government in Nigeria?

Government Achievements (%)

Road Network 46

Provision of street light 35

Provision of primary health care 34

Fight against corruption (EFCC) 29

Provision of health professionals 25

Provision of education infrastructure 23

Security and law enforcement 22

Construction of drainage system 21

Provision of clean water to citizens 19

Employment creation 19

Inviting local and foreign investors 17

Economic development 17

Poverty eradication 15

Management of state resources 15

Construction of dams 14

Base: 5000

Road network, provision of street lights, primary health care and fight against corruption are top four

achievements spontaneously mentioned by respondents.

President Goodluck Jonathan’s Performance rating…

PY1: Phrases Represent Opinion About President Jonathan's Performance Since He Resumed Office

52

2520

2 1

Performing satisfactory

Somewhat Performing

well

Stayed the same

Got a little worse

Got a lot worse

Base: 5000

High approval rating for the President (52%) satisfied with his performance thus far.

20% said his performance has been stagnant, while 3% said his performance had declined

Is V.P Namadi Sambo the right candidate for the Post?

PY2: Do You Think Namadi Sambo is The Right Candidate For The Vice President Post?

43

5

51

Yes No Don't know

Why he is right Candidate (%)

He has a good record 31

He is honest and transparent 27

He is qualified academically 13

He was performing well in his state 9

Other 2

Base: 2181

Why he is not the right candidate (%)

He is not a seasoned politician 31

He did not achieve anything when he was Governor of a state 26

He was not elected by Nigerians, appointed by President 23

Base: 233

43% approval rating for Namadi Sambo as right candidate for the post of Vice President, 5% said he is not the

right candidate, while 51% refused to comment.

Developmental Areas the President needs to focus on during his tenure

PY3: Which Policies or Development Programs Should President Jonathan Focus on During His Tenure?

Developmental Areas of Focus (%)

Corruption 69

Amenities (water, electricity) 55

Education 52

Crime 41

Healthcare 39

Inflation 38

Economic development 37

Infrastructure development 36

Break down of rules of law 34

Poverty Alleviation 18

Others 3

Base: 5000

Inline with problems faced by Nigeria at the moment. Nigerians would like the President to focus on reducing

corruption, provide amenities, revamp the educational sector and fight crime.

Should President Goodluck Jonathan contest 2011 Polls?

PY4 Looking at 2011 Elections, Do You Think President Jonathan Should Contest to be Nigeria's Head of State?

81

415

Yes No Don't know

Base: 5000

High approval for President Jonathan to contest 2011 polls (81%), Only 4% said he should not contest 2011

polls.15% of respondents were undecided

The President’s approval ratings cuts across region, gender, age, SEC and region

Why President Goodluck Jonathan should contest 2011 Polls…

Supporting Reasons (%)

Has performed well above expectation since taking office 47

Has the ability to transform our country to a prosperous nation 29

Transparent and not corrupt 25

He will unify Nigeria as one country as he is non tribal 19

He has managed to bring peace to the Niger Delta 13

He performed very well when he was the governor of his state 12

He will bring technocrats to the Government 10

Base: 2528

Yes,

Should

Contest

81%

Good performance since assuming Presidency, clean track record and good leadership qualities are key

attributes endearing the President to the electorate

Will you vote for President Jonathan in 2011 Polls……

PY4c If President Jonathan Should Contested For Presidency in 2011, Would You Vote For Him?

96%

Yes

No4%

Reason For not Voting for the President (%)

He is not from my Party 22

He should give chance to others 15

He does not have the Political muscle 13

He is no from the North 10

He does not have backing from the north 7

Base: 281

Overwhelming support for the President’s candidacy with 96%, saying they will vote for him in 2011 polls.

Only 4%, said they will not vote for him in 2011.

Those who said they would not vote for him said because he does not belong to their party, some said because

he does not come from the north, while others said he needs to give others the opportunity .

Political Party Affiliation

PY5 Which Political Party Do You Belong to?

Political Party Affiliation (%)

People's Democratic Party (PDP) 44

Action Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) 24

All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) 10

Labour Party (LP) 2

All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) 2

Fresh Democratic Party (FDP) 3

Democratic People’s Party (DPP) 1

Alliance for Democracy (AD) 1

Accord Party (AP) 1

Action Alliance (AA) 1

Others 3

Refused 8Base: 5000

The ruling party enjoys highest patronage, followed by Action Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) and All Nigeria

People’s Party (ANPP)

Party Voting - 2007 Polls Vs 2011 Polls

PY6 Which Party Did You Vote For in 2007? Which party will you vote for in 2011

Political Party Voted in 2007 Will vote for in 2011

People's Democratic Party 43 48

Action Congress Party of Nigeria 10 8

All Nigeria People's Party 7 5

All Progressive Grand Alliance 1 1

Labour Party 1 1

Nigeria People's Congress 1 1

None/Refused 29 30

Others 8 6

The Ruling PDP Party leads with majority of respondents who said they will vote for the party in 2011. Action

Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) and All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) follow at a far distance respectively.

Base: 5000

Voter registration

PY8b Are you Going To register during voter registration?

Base: 5000

81% said they will register in order to participate in the 2011 polls, 10 said they will not

register, while 9% were undecided.

81

10 9

Yes No Don’t Know

Yes No Don’t Know

Likelihood to vote in 2011

PY8b Are you Going To Vote During The Presidential Poll in 2011?

55

28

9 8

Definitely Probably Probably not Definitely not

Base: 5000

55% said they would definitely cast their vote in 2011, 28% of the respondents said they would

probably vote, 8% said they would definitely not vote.

Sentiments About outcome of 2011 Poll…

PY8c Phrases Best Describes Opinion About The Outcome of The Presidential Elections in 2011

Statement (%)

Will definitely not be free and fair 44

Will definitely be free and fair 18

Will probably be free and fair 17

Will probably not be free and fair 8

Refused/No Answer 13

44% believe the outcome of the 2011 poll will definitely not be free and fair, only 18% believe the poll will be

free and fair…

13% of respondents refused to answer….

Base: 5000

Key attributes considered when Selecting a Presidential Candidate

PY9: When You Are Voting, What Are The Things That Influence Your Choice of a Presidential Candidate?

Key Attributes considered (%)

Candidate – caliber of person contesting 63

Political party 33

Political ideology 31

Manifestoes 27

Religion 18

Tribal affiliation 9

Voters consider the caliber of person contesting when selecting a Presidential candidate ahead of Political

affiliation and political doctrine/ideology

Political affiliation and Political ideology are also critical part of the consideration set

Base: 5000

Electorate expectations from the Next Government in Nigeria

PY10: Expectations From The Party Which Will Win The Election to Run The Federal Government

Development Area (%)

Employment creation 77

Stable electricity 68

Poverty eradication 57

Free qualitative education 51

Economic development 49

Infrastructural development 45

Free health care for elderly and young children 43

Building industries 40

Fight against corruption 36

Empowering citizens economically 34

Provision of decent housing for all 27

Reducing environment degradation 25

Continuation of the current reform programs 24

Free education 20

Base: 5000

Employment creation is at the top of

expectations of a new government in 2011.

Stable electricity, poverty eradication and

free qualitative education form top four key

areas the new Government needs to focus on

in 2011

For more information about RMS

Feel free to contact the undersigned

Josiah Kimanzi –

jkimanzi@rms-africa.com

Research & Marketing Services

26 Odozi Street,

Ojodu.

P.O. Box 8225, Ikeja

Lagos, Nigeria

Tel: +234 (1)

7741623, 4704403,7914529

Url: www.rms-africa.com

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