pulling together the threads: weaving a tapestry out of experience, beliefs, dreams richard bedford...

Pulling together the threads:Pulling together the threads:weaving a tapestry out of weaving a tapestry out of

experience, beliefs, dreamsexperience, beliefs, dreams

Richard BedfordRichard BedfordMigration Research GroupMigration Research Group

University of WaikatoUniversity of Waikato

Emerging Pacific Leaders’ Dialogue: “Navigating our Future Together”Emerging Pacific Leaders’ Dialogue: “Navigating our Future Together”

A proverbA proverb

Ma wei e to te waka o te matauranga?Ma wei e to te waka o te matauranga?Maku e to, mau e to, ma te whakarongo e to.Maku e to, mau e to, ma te whakarongo e to.

Who will bear the canoe of knowledge?Who will bear the canoe of knowledge?I will, you will, all those who listen will.I will, you will, all those who listen will.

Navigating our future Navigating our future together?together?

““Navigating implies you know where Navigating implies you know where you are going and have an ability to you are going and have an ability to read the signs and conditions you read the signs and conditions you find en route” find en route”

HRH The Princess Royal.HRH The Princess Royal.

Navigating our future Navigating our future together?together?

The rudder of good governance is The rudder of good governance is not only essential to navigate not only essential to navigate towards our future together, it is also towards our future together, it is also critical to developing a collective critical to developing a collective vision of what the future should be.” vision of what the future should be.”

Fiji Group 3.Fiji Group 3.

My navigator trainingMy navigator training• Learning to sail in Kiribati and TuvaluLearning to sail in Kiribati and Tuvalu

• Grappling with “kastom” in VanuatuGrappling with “kastom” in Vanuatu

• Participating in “development” on Participating in “development” on BougainvilleBougainville

• Appreciating smallness in eastern FijiAppreciating smallness in eastern Fiji

• Understanding Polynesian demographyUnderstanding Polynesian demography

• Acknowledging indigenous peoples in Acknowledging indigenous peoples in Aotearoa and AustraliaAotearoa and Australia

Memorable phrasesMemorable phrases• ““I want to be someone”I want to be someone”

• ““Our identity lies ahead of us”Our identity lies ahead of us”

• ““Good leaders will invest in young Good leaders will invest in young people and women and seek their people and women and seek their participation in decision-making” participation in decision-making”

• ““Can we grow the seeds of both custom Can we grow the seeds of both custom and globalisation?”and globalisation?”

• ““Diversity is not about how we differ. It’s Diversity is not about how we differ. It’s about celebrating our differences”about celebrating our differences”

More memorable phrasesMore memorable phrases• ““Good leaders acknowledge the present, Good leaders acknowledge the present,

respect the past, and look to the future”respect the past, and look to the future”

• ““To build a nation you need a collective To build a nation you need a collective vision and people willing to work vision and people willing to work together to navigate the future”together to navigate the future”

• ““There is a need for a whole of nation There is a need for a whole of nation paradigm shift to calm the race-based paradigm shift to calm the race-based stormy seas”stormy seas”

• ““Stones crumble, but words live forever” Stones crumble, but words live forever”

Rich and diverse storiesRich and diverse storiesMelanesia at microscale: realities of life for Melanesia at microscale: realities of life for families/communities in diverse societies. families/communities in diverse societies. “Wan smolbag” would be impressed …“Wan smolbag” would be impressed …

Micronesian pragmatism: resilience, Micronesian pragmatism: resilience, optimism and commitment. Distinctive optimism and commitment. Distinctive solutions in distinctive environments.solutions in distinctive environments.

Polynesian confidence: strong cultures, Polynesian confidence: strong cultures, linked peoples, homes in many countries.linked peoples, homes in many countries.

The EPLD 2006 themesThe EPLD 2006 themes• Economic growth, industry and Economic growth, industry and

infrastructure: patchy attentioninfrastructure: patchy attention

• Regional co-operation: ambivalenceRegional co-operation: ambivalence

• Good governance: big ticksGood governance: big ticks

• Security, stability and strengthening Security, stability and strengthening communities: diverse responsescommunities: diverse responses

• Environment, education and health: lots Environment, education and health: lots of comment.of comment.

Economic growthEconomic growth““The future of our region will depend on The future of our region will depend on the sustainability of our environment, our the sustainability of our environment, our natural resources, our well-being, our natural resources, our well-being, our people, and the growth of our economies”people, and the growth of our economies”Fiji, Group 4. Fiji, Group 4.

Pacific 2020Pacific 2020: “Without an upturn in : “Without an upturn in economic growth, the future for these economic growth, the future for these countries is at best uncertain and at worst, countries is at best uncertain and at worst, bleak”bleak”

Regional cooperationRegional cooperation““Good leaders will choose the best Good leaders will choose the best solution for their community and consider solution for their community and consider the merits of regional cooperation on a the merits of regional cooperation on a case-by-case basis”case-by-case basis”Cook Is and NZ, Group 7. Cook Is and NZ, Group 7.

Pacific 2020Pacific 2020: “Integration and regional : “Integration and regional cooperation are not options for Pacific cooperation are not options for Pacific Island countries, but necessities borne of Island countries, but necessities borne of their small sizes”their small sizes”

Good governanceGood governance““It became increasingly clear through the It became increasingly clear through the week that governance is the frame on week that governance is the frame on which the tapestry is woven”which the tapestry is woven”Fiji, Group 3. Fiji, Group 3.

Pacific 2020Pacific 2020: “Improving political : “Improving political governance is a long-term challenge, but governance is a long-term challenge, but perhaps the most important one facing the perhaps the most important one facing the Pacific between now and 2020”Pacific between now and 2020”

Security and stabilitySecurity and stability““Any analysis must be informed by Any analysis must be informed by knowledge of deeper and enduring socio-knowledge of deeper and enduring socio-cultural beliefs, accord and conflicts if it is cultural beliefs, accord and conflicts if it is to be helpful to leaders and communities”to be helpful to leaders and communities”Solomons and Vanuatu, Group 5. Solomons and Vanuatu, Group 5.

Pacific 2020Pacific 2020: “The most immediate and : “The most immediate and widespread challenges are unemployment widespread challenges are unemployment and joblessness -- leading to poverty, and joblessness -- leading to poverty, frustration and, social instability”frustration and, social instability”

EnvironmentEnvironment““Finding the balance between utilising Finding the balance between utilising resources for financial benefit and resources for financial benefit and maintaining the environment for future maintaining the environment for future generations is a major challenge”generations is a major challenge”PNG, Group 1. PNG, Group 1.

Pacific 2020Pacific 2020: Oceanic fisheries, coastal : Oceanic fisheries, coastal fishing, and forestry are approaching the fishing, and forestry are approaching the limits of sustainability and face limits of sustainability and face environmental risk. environmental risk.

EducationEducation““Schooling in Kiribati is free up to Junior Schooling in Kiribati is free up to Junior Secondary level and atrtendance is Secondary level and atrtendance is compulsory … Young people are the compulsory … Young people are the country’s greatest asset”country’s greatest asset”Kiribati, Group 10. Kiribati, Group 10.

Pacific 2020Pacific 2020: “Better provision of basic : “Better provision of basic education services and greater emphasis education services and greater emphasis on vocational training will build human on vocational training will build human capital”. capital”.

HealthHealth““There is a building epidemic of obesity-There is a building epidemic of obesity-related disease in Samoa… The govt. is related disease in Samoa… The govt. is responding with a combination of responding with a combination of community campaigns and investment in community campaigns and investment in dialysis machines”dialysis machines”Samoa, Group 6. Samoa, Group 6.

Pacific 2020Pacific 2020: “The region faces serious : “The region faces serious and worsening health problems …”. and worsening health problems …”.

WomenWomen““Urgent work is required to address the Urgent work is required to address the issue of violence against women, because issue of violence against women, because until women are emancipated from the until women are emancipated from the disempowering impacts of domestic disempowering impacts of domestic violence, true gender equity and full violence, true gender equity and full economic and social participation of economic and social participation of women will not occur”women will not occur”Solomons and Vanuatu, Group 5, and Solomons and Vanuatu, Group 5, and many other groups, especially in many other groups, especially in Melanesia. Melanesia.

Positive perspectivesPositive perspectivesThe range of perspectives and voices was The range of perspectives and voices was impressive, but a Pacific custom of respect impressive, but a Pacific custom of respect saw the positive dominating over the saw the positive dominating over the negative; hopes crowding out despair; negative; hopes crowding out despair; pride overcoming pessimism.pride overcoming pessimism.

Yet there were sobering realities in all Yet there were sobering realities in all reports and the excellent metaphorical reports and the excellent metaphorical expressions of the canoe (Tonga) and the expressions of the canoe (Tonga) and the M’waka (New Caledonia), revealed much.M’waka (New Caledonia), revealed much.

Some realitiesSome realities• The Melanesian “youth boom”The Melanesian “youth boom”

• The slow growth in employmentThe slow growth in employment

• Deteriorating infrastructureDeteriorating infrastructure

• Pollution of fresh water and reefsPollution of fresh water and reefs

• Increasing vulnerability to hazardIncreasing vulnerability to hazard

• Persistent discrimination against Persistent discrimination against womenwomen

The challengeThe challenge

Sir William Deane captured the essence of Sir William Deane captured the essence of the challenge in the following words:the challenge in the following words:

““These are uncertain times in the Pacific and These are uncertain times in the Pacific and the task ahead for decision-makers is one of the task ahead for decision-makers is one of utmost difficulty and responsibility. … we utmost difficulty and responsibility. … we must all strive to ensure that increasing must all strive to ensure that increasing interdependence across borders and seas interdependence across borders and seas should not be at the expense of the values should not be at the expense of the values that bind and sustain our communities”that bind and sustain our communities”

The challengeThe challenge

Sir Paul Reeves reminded us that:Sir Paul Reeves reminded us that:

““Each generation must navigate its passage Each generation must navigate its passage and its success depends heavily on the and its success depends heavily on the quality of its leadership …. As we in the quality of its leadership …. As we in the Pacific move into the 21st Century, the Pacific move into the 21st Century, the demands on leadership in our region have demands on leadership in our region have never been greater”never been greater”

The challengeThe challengeAusAID in its AusAID in its Pacific 2020Pacific 2020 report observed report observed that while there is high unemployment and that while there is high unemployment and joblessness in many parts of the region, joblessness in many parts of the region,

““the Pacific 2020 process brought out the the Pacific 2020 process brought out the huge potential for development that exists huge potential for development that exists across the region…. Success will mean across the region…. Success will mean different things in different countries, but different things in different countries, but there is certainly a success story to be lived there is certainly a success story to be lived out by every Pacific island country, from the out by every Pacific island country, from the largest to the smallest”largest to the smallest”

A “Doomsday” scenario?A “Doomsday” scenario?This is a more optimistic scenario than one This is a more optimistic scenario than one 13 years ago when 13 years ago when Pacific 2010Pacific 2010 forecast that: forecast that:

““By 2010, population growth is careering By 2010, population growth is careering beyond control; it has doubled to 9 million … beyond control; it has doubled to 9 million … malnutrition is spreading and is already malnutrition is spreading and is already endemic in squatter settlements … there are endemic in squatter settlements … there are beggars on the streets of every South Pacific beggars on the streets of every South Pacific town … levels of unemployment are high … town … levels of unemployment are high … deaths from AIDs, heart disease and cancers deaths from AIDs, heart disease and cancers have greatly increased …” have greatly increased …”

Looking ahead ….Looking ahead ….

Over the next 50 years the region’s island Over the next 50 years the region’s island populations are projected to double again to populations are projected to double again to around 16 million. Melanesia’s population around 16 million. Melanesia’s population in 2050 will be four times larger than that in in 2050 will be four times larger than that in New Zealand. There may be many New Zealand. There may be many abandoned small isolated islands in the abandoned small isolated islands in the Pacific but the populations of all major Pacific but the populations of all major regions will be larger than they have ever regions will be larger than they have ever been. been.

The Population Situation The Population Situation Around 1800Around 1800

(000’s)(000’s) %%

AotearoaAotearoa 150150 77

AustraliaAustralia 600600 2727

PolynesiaPolynesia 200200 99

MelanesiaMelanesia 1,1501,150 5252

MicronesiaMicronesia 100100 55

OceaniaOceania 2,2002,200 100100


(000’s)(000’s) %%

AotearoaAotearoa 810810 1313

AustraliaAustralia 3,8003,800 6363






(000’s)(000’s) %%

AotearoaAotearoa 3,7803,780 1212







(000’s)(000’s) %%

AotearoaAotearoa 4,7504,750 1010




MicronesiaMicronesia 1,0801,080 22


Population change, 1800-2050Population change, 1800-2050

18001800 20502050

AotearoaAotearoa 150,000150,000 4,800,0004,800,000

AustraliaAustralia 600,000600,000 26,500,00026,500,000

PolynesiaPolynesia 200,000200,000 890,000890,000

MelanesiaMelanesia 1,150,0001,150,000 14,080,00014,080,000

MicronesiaMicronesia 100,000100,000 1,080,0001,080,000

OceaniaOceania 2,200,0002,200,000 47,300,00047,300,000

Population change 1800-2050Population change 1800-2050

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1800 1900 1950 2000 2050

Population (000)

Aotearoa Australia Polynesia Melanesia Micronesia

The demographic challengeThe demographic challenge

The Eminent Persons’ Group Review of the The Eminent Persons’ Group Review of the Pacific Islands Forum recommended, Pacific Islands Forum recommended, amongst other things, in 2004, that Forum amongst other things, in 2004, that Forum Leaders “Listen to the needs and aspirations Leaders “Listen to the needs and aspirations of the burgeoning population of young people of the burgeoning population of young people in the region, and recognise the impact of in the region, and recognise the impact of bigger and more youthful populations on the bigger and more youthful populations on the resources required for education and resources required for education and vocational training, healthcare and job vocational training, healthcare and job opportunities”opportunities”

Diverse DemographiesDiverse Demographies

Australasia – replacement migration? Australasia – replacement migration? Polynesia – depopulation or repopulation?Polynesia – depopulation or repopulation? Melanesia – overpopulation or emigration?Melanesia – overpopulation or emigration? Micronesia – decolonisation or Micronesia – decolonisation or

recolonisation? recolonisation?

Supply of LabourSupply of Labour

Australasia -- shortages of skilled and Australasia -- shortages of skilled and unskilled labour unskilled labour

Polynesia – shortages of skilled and Polynesia – shortages of skilled and unskilled labour in several countriesunskilled labour in several countries

Melanesia – oversupply of labour, Melanesia – oversupply of labour, especially unskilledespecially unskilled

Micronesia – shortages of skilled and Micronesia – shortages of skilled and unskilled labour in several countries unskilled labour in several countries

Resolving Labour Supply IssuesResolving Labour Supply Issues Australasia -- immigration of skilled Australasia -- immigration of skilled

labour; consideration of guest-worker labour; consideration of guest-worker schemes for unskilled labourschemes for unskilled labour

Polynesia – immigration of skilled and Polynesia – immigration of skilled and some unskilled laboursome unskilled labour

Melanesia – absorbing surplus labour in Melanesia – absorbing surplus labour in rural areas and urban informal sectorrural areas and urban informal sector

Micronesia – immigration of skilled and Micronesia – immigration of skilled and unskilled labour unskilled labour

The Melanesian DilemmaThe Melanesian Dilemma Small formal sectors to the economySmall formal sectors to the economy Low percentages of population in urban Low percentages of population in urban

residence (especially PNG, Sols, Vanuatu)residence (especially PNG, Sols, Vanuatu) Increasing pressure on productive land Increasing pressure on productive land

resources and weak markets for rural resources and weak markets for rural commoditiescommodities

Very limited outlets for emigration of Very limited outlets for emigration of labour (especially PNG, Sols, Vanuatu) labour (especially PNG, Sols, Vanuatu)

Approvals for Residence, Approvals for Residence, Temporary Work and StudyTemporary Work and Study

FijiFiji Other MelOther Mel

Skilled/BusinessSkilled/Business 999999 4545

Family sponsorshipFamily sponsorship 12451245 3232

InternationalInternational 650650 44

Temporary WorkTemporary Work 22142214 141141

StudyStudy 12981298 209209

TotalTotal 64066406 431431

A navigator looks ahead …A navigator looks ahead …Fiji sociologist, Vijay Naidu, observed Fiji sociologist, Vijay Naidu, observed recently in his address “The Pacific Region’s recently in his address “The Pacific Region’s Global Challenges: Beyond the Doom and Global Challenges: Beyond the Doom and Gloom”: “A critical issue for regional co-Gloom”: “A critical issue for regional co-operation and integration is the scope for operation and integration is the scope for Melanesian labour migration to Australia and Melanesian labour migration to Australia and New Zealand.” He saw such migration acting New Zealand.” He saw such migration acting as a safety valve for the sending countries in as a safety valve for the sending countries in the short-term, and over time building the short-term, and over time building capacity amongst islanders by enhancing capacity amongst islanders by enhancing skills and entrepreneurship.skills and entrepreneurship.

A navigator looks ahead …A navigator looks ahead …Fuimaono Les McCarthy, CEO of MPIA, Fuimaono Les McCarthy, CEO of MPIA, argued in a contribution to a book on argued in a contribution to a book on “Securing a Peaceful Pacific” that “People “Securing a Peaceful Pacific” that “People from New Zealand’s many [Pacific] diasporas from New Zealand’s many [Pacific] diasporas can and do play significant individual and can and do play significant individual and collective roles in helping secure a peaceful collective roles in helping secure a peaceful Pacific”. John Henderson, political scientist Pacific”. John Henderson, political scientist at Canterbury University suggested “there at Canterbury University suggested “there may be a positive example here for Australia may be a positive example here for Australia to consider, as it searches for ways to to consider, as it searches for ways to promote greater stability in Melanesia.”promote greater stability in Melanesia.”

Pacific people are travellersPacific people are travellers

Arguably the most contentious demographic Arguably the most contentious demographic issue confronting Australia, New Zealand and issue confronting Australia, New Zealand and other Pacific countries during the next half other Pacific countries during the next half century will be how to cope with pressure for century will be how to cope with pressure for an emigration outlet from Melanesia. an emigration outlet from Melanesia. Sustainable development in this part of the Sustainable development in this part of the Pacific will depend heavily on opportunities Pacific will depend heavily on opportunities for young people to travel overseas for for young people to travel overseas for training and employment, just as it does in training and employment, just as it does in New Zealand, Australia and Polynesia.New Zealand, Australia and Polynesia.

We all have a part to playWe all have a part to play

““Ultimately it is the stories and experiences of Ultimately it is the stories and experiences of the people of these countries, their tenacity the people of these countries, their tenacity and strength that will see them through the and strength that will see them through the challenges they confront. Therefore it is the challenges they confront. Therefore it is the people of these nations who must be people of these nations who must be supported, encouraged and challenged in supported, encouraged and challenged in their work” (Sols and Vanuatu Group 5)their work” (Sols and Vanuatu Group 5)We all have a part to play in ensuring there is We all have a part to play in ensuring there is a supportive, encouraging and challenging a supportive, encouraging and challenging work environment for people of the region.work environment for people of the region.

pulling together the threads: weaving a tapestry out of experience, beliefs, dreams richard bedford...

Documents

pacific island countries

economic growththe future

maku e

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ambivalencegood governance

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ma te whakarongo e