puerto rican voters in florida: a voter mobilization study · 2006. 1. 20. · 4 • florida boasts...

Lake Research PartnersWashington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY

LakeResearch.com202.776.9066

Analysis of Focus Group and Survey FindingsSpring 2020

Puerto Rican Voters in Florida: A Voter Mobilization Study

In partnership with James A. KohlbergRobert Perkowitz

http://www.lakeresearch.com/

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Methodology

• Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey, which was conducted in English and Spanish viatelephone using professional interviewers. The survey reached 600 Puerto Rican residents of Florida and wasconducted between April 24-May 4, 2020. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-4.0% and larger for subgroups.

• Telephone numbers for the sample were generated from a file of adult residents of Florida. The sample was stratifiedto reflect the composition of the Puerto Rican residents in Florida. The data were weighted slightly by gender, age,race, region, education level, and cell phone users.

• In interpreting survey results, all sample surveys are subject to possible sampling error—that is, the results of a surveymay differ from those that would be obtained if the entire population were interviewed. The size of the sampling errordepends upon both the total number of respondents in the survey and the percentage distribution of responses to aquestion. For example, if a response to a given question which all base respondents answered was 50%, we could be95% confident that the true percentage would fall within plus or minus 4.0% of this percentage, or between 46.0% and54.0%.

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Focus Group Methodology

•Lake Research Partners conducted four in-person focus groups among Puerto Rican voters in Florida who had mixed records ofturning out to vote. The groups were divided regionally (two each in Orlando and Miami) and by length of residency (two eachamong newer residents who moved to Florida within the last 20 years, and two each among residents who have lived in the statefor more than 20 years). The focus groups among more recent residents were conducted in both English and Spanish. In additionto the demographic criteria outlined above, all participants were screened to exclude Puerto Rican residents who identified aseither Republicans or likely to vote for Trump.

•Focus groups are not a substitute for quantitative research, but a powerful supplement, providing specific insights into voters’perceptions on issues and how those perceptions connect to their existing values. This type of research provides more time thana survey would allow to discuss broader themes and can be very useful in recognizing connections and barriers. It helps usidentify scenarios or frames that voters may be using that are not helpful to our organizational goals or are hard to replace. Theyalso give free reign to participants’ ambivalence on a matter, and do not force participants to answer questions with a “yes” or“no” when their real response is “maybe.”

• In opinion research, qualitative research seeks to develop insight and direction rather than quantitatively precise or absolutemeasures. Because of the limited number of respondents and the restrictions of recruiting, this research must be considered in aqualitative frame of reference. In addition, the following limitations are inherent in qualitative research: 1) Participants whorespond to the invitation of a stranger to participate in this research show themselves to be risk takers and may be somewhatmore assertive than non-participants; 2) Some participants speak more often and more forcefully in focus group sessions thanother participants, so their opinions tend to carry more weight in the findings; 3) Participants “self-select” themselves; and 4)Participants were not selected randomly; as a result each person in the pool of possible participants did not have an equalchance to be selected.

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• Florida boasts the largest population of Puerto Ricans outside of Puerto Rico itself—1.2 million and growing. Puerto Ricansaccount for just shy of one-third of the entire Latinx/Hispanic population in the state. Despite their numbers and their widespreadantipathy toward President Trump and the GOP, rates of voter turnout within Florida’s Puerto Rican community have laggedbehind other groups, especially with Puerto Ricans who moved to Florida. Data has shown that people who moved have lowerturnout rates than those on the island. As such, understanding the barriers to voting, along with the best ways to persuade andmobilize —including the most compelling issues and arguments — voters among Floridians of Puerto Rican descent is essential.

• Puerto Rican voters present a significant opportunity for engagement in the 2020 Presidential elections. Despite their mixedturnout history, these Florida Puerto Rican voters are generally eager to have their voices heard in the 2020 Presidential election.Their associations with voting—as both a hard-won right and a potential vehicle for affecting change—are mostly positive,though are being eroded by their deteriorating impressions of the electoral process and their tepid feelings toward theDemocratic nominee.

• Puerto Rican voters, of course, are not a monolithic group; a blanket approach to improving their participation rates will notsuffice. As such, three individual target groups suggest themselves for special focus:• More recent arrivals to Florida (i.e. within the last 20 years). In addition to being less interested in the elections and less

motivated to vote, these targets face additional barriers involving language and a lack of familiarity with the voting process.Surprisingly, they support Biden over Trump by smaller margins than Puerto Rican voters overall.

• Less recent arrivals to Florida (i.e. 20 or more years ago). These targets feel more comfortable with the voting process andperceive fewer procedural barriers, but are more cynical about politics and voting in ways that resemble their non-Puerto Ricancounterparts.

• Younger voters (i.e. those under the age of 40), who present challenges of lack of enthusiasm and motivation, despite theirintense antipathy toward Trump. In addition, their feelings toward Biden are lukewarm(in notable contrast to Bernie Sanders).

The Context

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• There is a lack of information in terms of both the voting process and also the candidates. In the focus groups,participants repeatedly expressed a desire to know more about their options both up and down the ticket. Morerecent arrivals, in particular, raised questions about registration and the mechanisms around voting, even beforethe advent of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Mobilizing these voters will not be easy. Some of our target groups, including younger Puerto Ricans and lessrecent arrivals, are cynical of the process and less enthusiastic and motivated. Moreover, despite disproportionatemessaging on our side, there is little movement in voter enthusiasm. These audiences will need sustainedprograms, not just last minute contact. Given their opinions, communication will need to come from relationalorganizations and trusted sources.

• Voting in Florida is not the same as voting in Puerto Rico. Puerto Ricans expressed key cultural differences aboutvoting. In Puerto Rico, voting is a more communal exercise and perceived as less complicated. Voting is a familyactivity, a community holiday, and sanctioned by employers. We need to find a way to bridge these cultural gapsand empower them to emulate these cultural practices in their own communities—even if they aren’t practiced inthe state at-large.

• Although Puerto Ricans overwhelmingly support Joe Biden, our target groups tend to be more undecided and insome cases, are slightly more open to Trump. The youngest voters will be a particularly tricky target group. Votersunder 30 are the least enthusiastic and motivated by far. Although they hate Trump, they are not warm to Biden,and are pessimistic about their ability to bring change.

• Political messaging will be especially hard for this group. For example, they are most likely to think climatechange is the most important issue, yet the climate change message is the least effective among them. Theyrespond to messages that emphasize Trump’s negligence and complete lack of respect for rPuerto Rico in in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria.

The Challenges

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• The Puerto Rican community cares about voting and understands its importance. This populationtends to view voting as a way to bring about change, feel a sense of community responsibilityassociated with voting, recognize the importance of high turnout to make an impact, and see voting asa method of motivating other Latinxs citizens to vote. There are major generational divides on thesefronts, with younger voters generally less positive about voting than older voters.• Seeing voting as a way to “make a difference for our families and our children” stands out in regression

analysis as predicting higher levels of enthusiasm about the coming election.

• There is not one clear barrier preventing them from voting, they want information on candidates whomthey may not know well, especially younger Puerto Ricans and more recent arrivals. These same groups(but especially newer voters) also want information about the process of voting to empower them toexpress this right they already value from their time on the island.• Younger voters and independents will be the biggest challenge here. These groups are the least likely to

recognize the value in voting and require the most work for persuasion and mobilization.• We also need to ensure our targets have clear information about the process of registering to vote and casting

their ballots. The growing prominence of Vote-by-Mail in the upcoming election presents both a challenge—by presenting this population another unfamiliar voting process—as well as an opportunity to ensure they areproperly informed.

The Opportunity

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• The Puerto Rican community displays real antipathy toward Donald Trump across segments. Theylargely support Biden, dislike Trump, and disapprove of his handling of every issue. All three targetgroups support Biden to varying degrees. Although some may not like Biden as much personally, thereis uniform dislike and disapproval of Trump. However, one blanket anti-Trump message will not work.We need to craft unique messages for each of these groups.

• Trump’s twin failures in mishandling the recovery after Hurricane Maria and his lack of preparation forand response to the COVID-19 pandemic both present huge vulnerabilities. Not only do all three targetgroups strongly disapprove of Trump’s handling of these crises, the most effective message across theboard criticized Trump’s response to both—and in the case of Maria, in particular, highlight his lack ofrespect for the Puerto Rican community in a time of dire need.

• Additional compelling arguments for opposing Trump among Puerto Ricans in Florida emphasize his efforts tokick millions of Americans off their healthcare, including during a public health pandemic and jobs crisis. Themassive expansion of uninsured people and wealth inequality on Trump’s watch—hitting Latinx communitiesthe hardest; and his cruel treatment of immigrants, including splitting up families and caging children.

The Opportunity (continued)

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The Strategy: Targets and Communication• Improving our margins within the Puerto Rican community will require a diversified messaging strategy that focuses on three

top tier target groups: newer arrivals, less recent arrivals, and young voters. Overall, messages that start with “Donald Trump”test slightly better. Messaging on “respect" is stronger than those on “empathy.” Adding Coronavirus does not particularlyincrease the power of messages. However, we cannot expect a single outreach strategy to mobilize all these groups effectively.• More recent arrivals are largely on our side, but face more structural barriers and need a extra push to actually turn out

to vote. They are very supportive of Biden, however they are less enthusiastic and motivated and unsure whether voting willbring about change. They are less familiar with the voting processes on the mainland, and see it as structurally and culturallydifferent from the island. Successful messaging toward this group focuses on Trump’s failed handling of Hurricane Maria andlack of respect towards the Puerto Rican community, as well as his record and rhetoric of scapegoating immigrants.

• Less recent arrivals are more motivated to vote, face fewer structural barriers, and generally are less cynical ofelectoralism. They are no more supportive of Biden than other groups of Puerto Ricans, however—and cross-pressuredby their benign view of Trump on economic matters. Successful engagement of this group involves emphasizing the role ofvoting in effecting community-wide change as well as Trump’s failed handling of Maria and lack of respect towards PuertoRico, and his efforts to reward the wealthy and corporations in the face of the pandemic while proposing deep cuts toservices that families rely on, including healthcare.

• Younger voters are the least enthusiastic and motivated, but dislike Trump the most. Importantly, within this group, thereare key differences between those under 30 and those 30-39. The youngest group is especially unmotivated and pessimisticand much less supportive of Biden, with almost one-third undecided. Notably they love Bernie. Anti-Trump messaging alonefails to move them. Messages that work for young voters discuss the need to help working families—including immigrants,his mishandling of the pandemic, and his complete lack of empathy for Puerto Ricans in the aftermath of Maria.

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The Strategy: Targets and Communication (continued)

• In addition, segmenting messages between English and Spanish speakers can also prove to be animportant messaging strategy. Spanish speakers view Trump more favorably on the economy, buthighly disapprove of his handling of immigration. English speakers, on the other hand, overwhelminglydisapprove of Trump. Notably, English speakers are much less motivated and enthusiastic but reportequal likelihood to vote.• Overall, messaging is less effective towards English speakers, but messaging about Trump’s lack of

respect towards Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria resonates among both groups—especiallySpanish speakers. Messaging about struggling working families and immigration also works forSpanish speakers, while populist economic and healthcare messages work better with those whopredominantly speak English.

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Lake Research PartnersWashington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066

Targets for Engagement

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More recent arrivals (under 20 years): This group needs persuasion and mobilization. Responsibility, the impact of voting,and a communal form of motivating others are key values. The strongest message is the past treatment of Puerto Ricansand immigration.

GENDER

55% 45%

H.S. or Less29%

Post-H.S. 35%

College Grad22%

Post-Grad13%

Education18-3922%

30-3921%

40-4921%50-64

17%

65 and older19%

Age

Republican31%

Democrat49%

Independent/DK 13%

Party ID

English27%

Spanish44%

Both29%

Language Spoken at Home

South16%

West Central25%

East Central

57%

North/Panhandle2%

Region

Message % Serious DoubtsPR/Respect 50%Immigration w/out COVID-19 44%PR/Empathy 43%

Value Statements % Seriously Agree

Vote because of community responsibility 67%

Vote in record numbers to show impact 64%

Responsibility to vote for those who can’t 61%

Motivate other Latinos to vote 60%

Vote more as a community or family 51%

Message 10 8-9 6-7 5 1-4

Enthusiasm 52% 13% 9% 12% 13%

Message Biden Trump

Strongly 36% 27%

Not-so-strongly 13% 4%

Lean 7% 4%

Total 56% 36%

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Less recent arrivals (more than 20 years): This group is fairly motivated and supportive of Biden. They are motivated tovote by a variety of factors including a community responsibility, making a difference, and motivating others. They are morepopulist than others and also respond to Trump’s disrespect of PR and healthcare.

GENDER

44% 56%

H.S. or Less 25%

Post-H.S. 38%

College Grad20%

Post-Grad 16%

Education18-39

5%

30-3911%

40-4925%

50-64 35%

65 and older 24%

Age

Republican25%

Democrat46%

Independent/DK 20%

Party ID

English31%

Spanish33%

Both 35%


South18%

West Central17%

East Central

60%

North/Panhandle 5%

Region


We can make a difference if we vote 75%



Motivate friends and family to vote 63%



Message 10 8-9 6-7 5 1-4

Enthusiasm 64% 12% 9% 10% 4%

Message Biden Trump

Strongly 38% 25%


Lean 7% 1%

Total 57% 29%

Message % Serious DoubtsEconomy for the wealthy 49%PR/Respect 46%Healthcare 44%

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Younger Voters (under 40): This group will need work. They are cynical, issue-focused, and like Bernie better than Biden who they havemixed feelings about. They despise Trump, however. They are less motivated by making a difference and turning out in record numbers. AntiTrump messaging makes a difference, but also may not be enough. Current issues like immigration, coronavirus, respect for PR, healthcare,families struggling, and Trump Budget are mildly persuasive.

GENDER

57% 43%

H.S. or Less23%

Post-H.S. 45%

College Grad22%

Post-Grad 8%

Education

18-3954%

30-3946%

Age

Republican21%

Democrat46%

Independent/DK 21%

Party ID

English57%

Spanish11%

Both 32%


South26%

West Central21%

East Central45%

North/Panhandle 8%

Region

Message % Serious DoubtsImmigration w/out coronavirus 35%Coronavirus 34%PR/Respect 33%Healthcare 33%Working families struggling 33%Trump Budget 33%







Motivate family and friends to vote 39%

Message 10 8-9 6-7 5 1-4

Enthusiasm 30% 16% 18% 14% 17%

Message Biden Trump

Strongly 29% 15%


Lean 11% 7%

Total 53% 24%

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Spanish Speakers: This group is highly supportive of Biden and pretty enthusiastic. They believe they can make a difference byvoting, have a sense of community responsibility, and want to motivate others to vote. Messaging about Trump disrespect’s of PRis very persuasive.

GENDER

56% 44%

H.S. or Less 34%

Post-H.S. 36%

College Grad 18%

Post-Grad 7%

Education18-39

7%30-3915%

40-4921%50-64

24%

65 and older 33%

Age

Republican26%

Democrat53%

Independent/DK 15%

Party ID

English 6%

Spanish74%

Both 20%

Language Spoken at HomeSouth

8%

West Central24%

East Central

65%

North/Panhandle 3%

Region

Message % Serious DoubtsPR/Respect 57%Working families struggling 48%Immigration w/out coronavirus 48%




Motivate friends and family to vote 70%




Message 10 8-9 6-7 5 1-4

Enthusiasm 58% 15% 7% 11% 8%

Message Biden Trump

Strongly 40% 25%


Lean 6% 3%

Total 60% 30%

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Demographics of Puerto Ricans in Florida

AGE

Under 30 25% 30-39 21%40-49 19%

21% 50-64

15% 65+

EDUCATION

High School or Less

Post-H.S. / Some College

College Graduate

Post-Graduate

25%

40%

21%

11%

32%College Grad or Post Grad

49%

24%

27%

Democrat

Republican

Independent/DK/Other/Ref

PARTY ID

REGION

South

West Central

East Central

North/Panhandle

21%

21%

53%

4%

GENDER

50% 50%

48%

48%

4%

Mainland

Puerto Rico

Other/Refused

PLACE OF BIRTH

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Contours of Support in the General Election

17

37

38

36

35

29

43

35

40

21

19

20

26

24

19

22

20

15

14

8

21

24

7

16

10

6

4

9

6

9

5

7

5

21

25

27

12

15

26

19

25

Strong Biden Soft Biden Undecided Soft Trump Strong Trump

Q15. And if the November 2020 Election for President were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] _Democrat Joe Biden, AND _Republican Donald Trump for whom would you vote or are you undecided?

Puerto Ricans in Florida overwhelmingly favor Biden to Trump. There is still about 15% ofthem who are undecided. Even more important are the 21% that are soft Biden supporters.

Presidential Ballot

Total

Less Recent Arrivals

More Recent Arrivals

Always Mainland

Under 40

Over 40

English

Spanish

18

Demos % Biden % Soft Biden % Trump % Undecided/DK

Total 58% 21% 27% 14%Men 56% 20% 30% 12%Women 60% 23% 25% 15%Under 30 46% 22% 23% 30%30-39 61% 26% 24% 14%40-49 63% 22% 28% 6%50-64 60% 18% 36% 4%65 & Over 65% 18% 26% 9%H.S./Less 65% 21% 22% 13%Non-college grad 59% 22% 26% 14%4 year College grad 63% 20% 25% 12%Post-graduate 48% 18% 40% 12%Democrat 89% 26% 6% 6%Independent/DK 49% 28% 17% 31%Republican 14% 8% 82% 4%More recent arrivals 56% 20% 36% 8%Less recent arrivals 57% 19% 29% 12%Always lived on mainland 61% 26% 18% 20%Spanish 60% 20% 30% 9%English 57% 22% 26% 16%

Although Biden leads among every subgroup except Republicans, he is notably weaker with voters under 30 andIndependents, where his support is much softer and both groups are disproportionately undecided. Trump appears to havegained some traction among more recent arrivals to the mainland and those with post-graduate degrees. Overall, a littleover one-third of Biden supporters are soft—and this number goes up within various subgroups.

Presidential Vote by Subgroups


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In discussing the candidates for President, focus group participants’ commentsreflected ambivalence toward Biden and antipathy toward Trump. Even at the time ofthese focus groups, few participants were truly undecided.

"Joe Biden seems like he could bring back some of the respect that the US used to have and if he gets a decent running mate…I think that would be a lot better than what we currently have. But right now I'm up in the air. I don't know who's going to win." –Miami, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"My choices were Bernie Sanders or Mike Bloomberg. I'll say this now, Mike is not anymore. I'm looking on Bernie." – Orlando, New Resident

“I'm still looking at all of them." –Orlando, New Residents

Who Are You Excited to Vote For/Against?

"I'm not voting for Trump." – Miami, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"Definitely democrat, but undecided." – Orlando, New Resident

"Definitely Trump." –Orlando, New Resident

“Joe Biden.” – Miami, New Resident

"Searching for the right candidate." – Miami, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"I'm undecided right now.” –Orlando, New Resident

20Q36. And if the November 2020 Election for President were held today and the candidates were: [ROTATE] _Democrat Joe Biden, AND _Republican Donald Trump for whom would you vote or are you undecided?

Few voters shift between the initial to the final ballot, despite the skew ofanti-Trump messaging. Votes may have changed with the arrival ofcoronavirus, but we will need a sustained campaign.

Presidential Final Ballot

59

2616

3920

Biden Trump Und./Someone else/Would not vote

58

2715

37 21

Biden Trump Und./Other/No vote

Initial Ballot

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Demos Final Ballot % Final Vote Margin Initial Vote Margin Net

Total 59% +33 +30 +3Men 55% +26 +26 -Women 63% +40 +35 +5Under 30 50% +30 +23 +730-39 61% +39 +37 +240-49 62% +35 +35 -50-64 58% +22 +23 -165 & Over 68% +44 +39 +5H.S./Less 63% +42 +43 -1Non-college grad 60% +35 +32 +3

4 year College grad 63% +39 +38 +1

Post-graduate 48% +7 +9 -2

Democrat 89% +85 +83 +2

Independent/DK 48% +28 +32 -4

Republican 16% -62 -68 +6

More recent arrivals 58% +28 +20 +8

Less recent arrivals 55% +24 +28 -4Always lived on mainland 63% +44 +44 -Spanish 62% +36 +30 +6English 58% +32 +31 +1

The biggest shifts towards Biden between the initial and final ballot take place among a mix of morerecent arrivals, voters under 30, those over 65, women, those who are more comfortable speakingSpanish, and—importantly—Republicans.

Presidential Vote by Subgroups


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Images of the Players

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A majority of Puerto Ricans in Florida view Trump negatively. Their opinions of Biden aremore mixed, but still net-positive. Notably, younger voters are contemptuous of bothcandidates, while older voters are polarized in their opinions—positive toward Biden andnegative toward Trump. Notably, Bernie is viewed as overwhelmingly positive by those under30.

Favorability of Key Players

18

27

30

25

41

42

52

24

25

57

29

31

Donald Trump

Bernie Sanders

Joe Biden

Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable

Very favorable Very unfavorable

For each of the following, please indicate how favorable you are toward that person or group on a scale of 0 to 100 where 0 means veryunfavorable and 100 means very favorable. If you haven't heard of them or if you don't know enough about them to have an impression,please say so. You can use any number in between. [INCLUDE BOX FOR NO OPINION AND NEVER HEARD OF; RANDOMIZE LIST]

Net

+11

+12

-32

Under 30+30

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Across the board, Puerto Ricans roundly dislike Trump. Biden is most popular with older Puerto Ricanvoters, where his image is evenly split among those 30-39, but is slightly under water among thoseunder 30. Notably, large portions of both groups have not yet formed an opinion of Biden. Bernie isseen mostly favorably across the board, particularly among those under 30 and newer arrivals.

Image Ratings: Biden, Sanders, and Trump

Fav Unfav N.O/DK/NH Fav Unfav N.O/DK/NH Fav Unfav N.O/DK/NH

More recent arrivals 41% 27% 33% 41% 29% 31% 28% 55% 18%

Less recent arrivals 51% 31% 18% 39% 35% 26% 35% 47% 17%

Always mainland 39% 33% 27% 45% 24% 31% 17% 67% 16%

Under 30 26% 30% 44% 45% 15% 40% 17% 57% 26%

30-39 34% 34% 32% 39% 31% 30% 17% 64% 18%

40-49 54% 29% 17% 47% 30% 23% 31% 56% 13%

50-64 49% 34% 18% 36% 40% 24% 36% 50% 14%

65 & over 58% 23% 19% 35% 32% 33% 28% 58% 13%

English 41% 33% 27% 42% 29% 29% 23% 60% 17%

Spanish 47% 25% 28% 38% 29% 33% 31% 50% 20%

16. For each of the following, please tell me how favorable you are toward that person or group on a scale of 0 to 100 where 0 means very unfavorable and100 means very favorable. If you haven't heard of them or if you don't know enough about them to have an impression, please say so. You can use anynumber in between. [RANDOMIZE LIST]

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In discussing their feelings about Joe Biden, focus group participants revealed benign,but fairly thin associations with the former Vice President. In many ways, PuertoRicans anchor Biden’s credibility with President Obama.

"If he were to be ballet in November, I wouldn't vote for him, but the reason why I'm voting for Bernie Sanders is because of more so, student loans, because they have some similar plans but that one kind of caries more weight for“ – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"I think that if he's elected, he should be a good president because he had Obama as a role model right there next to him all the time." – Orlando, New Residents

“Him, I don't know much” – Orlando, New Residents

What do you think about Joe Biden?

"The only reason why liked him was he knew policy, foreign policy, and he had the respect of other countries, supposedly. That's the only reason why Obama picked him." – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"I wish he wasn't so old. It's always old white men. I'm sick of it." – Miami, New Residents

“He looks presidential, but he's older so you don't know if you can rely on his state of mind, but that's the reason why I'm wondering who he's going to have as a running mate, which could tell him, Joe don't do that, you're going to get us in trouble, or hey Joe, what about this. You know, to keep him in order.” – Miami, New Residents

“Well, I haven't seen his proposals, I haven't said to see them.” – Miami, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"I think he's going to be a great guy. He has to be a role model Barrack Obama. If he's there, I know Barack Obama is behind him." – Orlando, New Residents

“I don’t like him” – Miami, New Residents

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Puerto Ricans view Democrats in Congress much more favorably than Ron DeSantis andRepublicans in Congress. Notably, less recent arrivals are more likely to view DeSantispositively.

Favorability of Key Players

16

17

26

25

28

41

34

29

21

41

36

26

Republicans in Congress

Ron DeSantis

Democrats in Congress

Somewhat favorable Somewhat unfavorable

Very favorable Very unfavorable

For each of the following, please indicate how favorable you are toward that person or group on a scale of 0 to 100 where 0 means veryunfavorable and 100 means very favorable. If you haven't heard of them or if you don't know enough about them to have an impression,please say so. You can use any number in between. [INCLUDE BOX FOR NO OPINION AND NEVER HEARD OF; RANDOMIZE LIST]

+15

-7

-16

Net

Less Recent Arrivals

+13

27

29

70

215 44

Positive Negative Don't Know

Puerto Ricans overwhelmingly disapprove of the job President Trump is doing. PuertoRicans over 50, as well as those with postgraduate degrees, are less critical of hisperformance, but still rate him negatively. Independents are very negative and resembleDemocrats.

Donald Trump Job as President

Trump as President

17. How would you rate the job Donald Trump is doing as President: EXCELLENT, GOOD, JUST FAIR or POOR job?

Exc/Good Fair/Poor DK

Men 33% 67% -Women 25% 72% 3%Under 30 27% 70% 3%30-39 19% 79% 2%40-49 24% 76% -50-64 42% 58% -65 & Over 34% 63% 3%H.S./Less 32% 68% 1%Non-college grad 30% 69% 1%4 year College grad 19% 79% 2%Post-graduate 41% 56% 3%Democrat 10% 89% 1%Independent/DK 21% 77% 1%Republican 73% 25% 1%More recent arrivals 33% 67% 1%Less recent arrivals 36% 63% 1%Always mainland 21% 76% 3%Spanish 32% 67% 1%English 27% 71% 2%

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The focus group participants spoke disparagingly about Donald Trump, framing him as someone whorefuses to accord others basic respect. Multiple participants recounted the hurt they felt at the way(s)he mocked Puerto Ricans in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, though, as we see later, simply pointingall of Trump’s many flaws is unlikely by itself to get these voters to the polls.

“Biden has his universal, but Bernie has his Universal, two different plans, Trump doesn't have any plan” – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

“For me, he's not a leader.” – Miami, New Residents

What do you think about Donald Trump?

“He doesn't respect anybody.” –Orlando, Long term, Uneven turnout

"He had the umbrella, it's raining. He had the umbrella, and the wife was in the back." – Orlando, New Residents

“When we heard him talking on the Twitters and the rallies, it's very offensive. It's a person that is not talking to me and to my people because he's not interested to talk about me and my people.” –Miami, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

“He doesn't respect women.” –Orlando, Long term, Uneven turnout

“We're not voting for Trump. We're not voting for Trump. No Trump. No Trump.” – Miami, Long term, Uneven turnout

"For him we're still immigrants.“ – Orlando, New Residents

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Puerto Ricans not only disapprove of Trump’s job performance overall, but also on a variety ofspecific fronts, from immigration to climate change, healthcare to his handling of Hurricane Maria, aswell as his management of the COVID-19 pandemic. While these voters rate him negatively on theeconomy, it is the one issue where they assess him relatively less critically—this is especially true forthose over the age of 40.

Job Performance on Issues

12

9

8

12

9

19

23

23

17

28

25

39

58

55

52

49

44

31

74

73

72

69

72

58

Immigration

Handling of aid to PR after Hurricane Maria

Climate change

Handling COVID-19

Health Care

The economy

18.Next are some specific issues. After each, please indicate if Donald Trump has been doing an excellent, good, just fair,or poor job in that area. [RANDOMIZE LIST]

-52 -60 -45

-50 -56 -44

-56 -62 -51

-41 -52 -32

-47 -58 -38

-19 -32 -9

Net Under

40 Over

40

30

Context

31

The focus groups, which were conducted just ahead of the COVID-19 shutdown, revealed a mix ofconcerns about the direction of the country, but more cautious optimism about the trajectory of thestate. Participants generally expressed a desire for more stability and security in their lives.

"Seesaw, like a seesaw." – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"I would say the same thing. My family, everyone is good health. Financially, I moved to Florida because in Puerto Rico you know things were not looking as good as 2007-2008, and everything has been going... you know getting better here." – Miami, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"Optimistic." – Miami, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

I’m feeling _________ about the way things are going for people like me and my family today.

"Well what else, well, because we have work education, roof, we have everything and except for the family stability." – Miami, New Resident

"That's a tough question. I feel blessed for what I'm doing, but I'm really concerned about the status that we have right now in the country." –Orlando, New Resident

"Concerned." – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"The finance- Not only my finances…but the way the trajectory is…and the forecast." –Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"I feel blessed because I am here with my mom…from Puerto Rico. After Maria. Now she's good. My daughter's in a good school. I have my job. I miss my husband...but I feel great here. I'm a single mom and I think I do the best for my family." – Orlando, New Resident

"Well, I'm concerned about more of us, Hispanic people right now. We're going through a tough moment because of our government right now.” – Orlando, New Resident

32

48

3429

16 15 14 12 12

40 39

29

15 1317 16

11

41

2532

17 16 1512

15

66

3126

1519

95

11

Jobs and the economy Healthcare andprescription drug prices

Coronavirus Education Support for Puerto Rico Racism and discrimination Climate change Immigration

Total Democrat Independent Republican

8. Which two of the following do you think are most important for the next president to do something about? [RANDOMIZE]

In the early stages of COVID-19, the issue agenda for Puerto Rican voters in Florida is diffuse. Jobsand the economy, healthcare, and COVID-19 are the most pressing concerns these voters have forthe next President to address. Jobs and the economy are bigger concerns for Independents andRepublicans, while Democrats give equal emphasis to the economy and healthcare.

Most Important Problem: (by party)

33

Focus group participants expressed concerns over healthcare costs and access—as well as thegenerally high cost of living. Additionally, some participants voiced concern over the risingproblem of racism, which they felt was being exploited and exacerbated by Trump.

"It's [rent] too high." – Orlando, New Residents

“Mostly everybody is a way to bankruptcy from a sickness because one sickness and your savings will be wiped out. Now the president want to eliminate the affordable care" – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"I think the health.“ –Orlando, New Resident

What Are Your Biggest Concerns?

"The question was "People like me and my family" and I would say one part of it is also healthcare…and the minimum wage." – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"I think that I realized that the cost of life is, it's much more elevated that in Puerto Rico. It's ridiculous. It's something..." – Miami, New Residents

"I had to be a year without having insurance because the government thought that I was making too much money to get free healthcare." – Orlando, New Residents

"Well, the coronavirus or the racists. Yeah. I have a lot of racist here more than in another United States." – Miami, New Resident

"I think that our current president really have brought that to forefront and gave people the ability or the approval to express racism instead of hiding it because he's the model that a lot of people look towards in our country" – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"Well, I'm concerned about more of us, Hispanic people right now. We're going through a tough moment because of our government right now.” –Orlando, New Resident

34

Attitudes on Voter Registration, Engagement, Motivations and Barriers to Turnout

35

In the focus groups, participants discussed the experience of voting as markedly different in Puerto Rico than inthe U.S. Puerto Ricans noted that the process is more complicated in Florida—from figuring out all the differentoffices on the ballot to having to wait in line for hours to actually to cast a ballot. They also noted major culturaldifferences, including how Puerto Ricans view voting as a community and family activity.

“You vote for why your family goes, that's always Puerto Rico, it's a cultural thing.” – Orlando, New Arrival

"Exactly. The problem is the system but the voting here is like…The process is the same." – Orlando, New Arrival

Voting in the U.S. vs. PR

“This caused and they gave me this paper and I was like, ‘Oh, I don't know who is this judge? Oh, I don't know who is this person? I haven't seen anything.’ It was like a surprise.” – Miami, New Arrival

"I think they should change the process here. It's, that process maybe was functional in 1904 when they start." – Orlando, New Arrival

"And in Puerto Rico, it was different. ‘Oh, where's the paper?’ Here was everything organized well. Here in downtown, for the midterms, it was a big line for two hours.” –Miami, New Arrival

“Well, I only voted on one election, so I don't know how it's going to be on the next one…. Yes, I found [It complicated[] a lot of paper.” –Miami, New Arrivals

“Well in Puerto Rico they taught us that if you don't vote, you don't have a right. Culturally, they taught us to vote. That is very important for the women.” – Miami, New Arrival

“Complicated. Complicated. Complicated.” – Miami, New Arrival

"I'm raised, but I never vote here." – Orlando, New Arrivals

“[My mom] calls me at 5:00 AM, ‘You have to vote. Wake up.’" –Orlando, New Arrival

36

Puerto Rican voters in Florida revere voting as a way to make a difference in the community, recognize theimportance of high turnout to make an impact, see voting as a form of community responsibility, and as a methodof motivating other Latinos to vote. Seeing voting as a way to “make a difference for our families and our children”stands out in regression analysis as predicting to higher levels of enthusiasm about the coming election. There aremajor generational divides on these value statements, with younger voters agreeing with them with much lessintensity, especially when it comes to voting as a method of change and voting as a community responsibility.

Value Statements: Agree or Disagree?

14. I am now going to read you a few statements. Please tell me, overall, if you agree or disagree with each statement on a scale of 0-10, with 0 meaning you strongly disagree and 10 meaning you strongly agree, and you can be anywhere in between. [RANDOMIZE LIST]

86

84

84

80

78

80

73

77

41

6

5

7

9

11

9

13

11

60

59

58

52

52

52

43

40

15

2

2

6

3

5

4

19

We can make a difference if we vote

Need to vote in record numbers to show impact

Vote because of community responsibility

Motivate other Latinos to vote

Responsibility to vote for those who cannot

Motivate family and friends, who don't usually vote, to vote

Wish we could vote more as a community

Need more imporatial information

Deadlines and requirements for registering and voting are confusing

AgreeDisagree

41

37

Puerto Ricans who moved from the island to the mainland U.S. are especially confident in the power of their vote and have astrong responsibility to vote for their community—this is particularly true among those who have been on the mainland longer.Voters under 40 are significantly less likely than their older counterparts to agree with almost every statement. They are less likelyto think their vote can make a difference and feel a responsibility for voting. Puerto Ricans are less confused and more in need ofinformation.

Value Statements: Agree or Disagree?

% “Strongly” Agree (% Total Agree) Total

Arrival Age

More recent arrivals

Less recent arrivals

Always mainland

Under 40 40 & Over

We can make a difference if we vote 60% (86%) 62% (86%) 75% (94%) 49% (83%) 45% (79%) 73% (93%)

Puerto Ricans need to vote in record numbers 59% (84%) 64% (83%) 70% (91%) 47% (78%) 46% (78%) 69% (89%)

I vote because I have a responsibility to my community 58% (84%) 67% (87%) 73% (90%) 42% (79%) 42% (77%) 72% (90%)

I want to motivate other Latinos to vote 52% (80%) 60% (84%) 62% (81%) 39% (76%) 43% (77%) 60% (83%)

Puerto Ricans have a responsibility to vote for those whocannot in our community

52% (78%) 61% (85%) 62% (81%) 37% (68%) 41% (76%) 61% (80%)

I want to motivate my family and friends to vote 52% (80%) 56% (84%) 63% (81%) 39% (76%) 39% (75%) 62% (85%)

I wish we could vote more as a community 43% (73%) 51% (80%) 43% (67%) 34% (68%) 37% (72%) 48% (73%)

Need more impartial information 40% (77%) 45% (78%) 41% (73%) 32% (79%) 34% (79%) 44% (75%)

The deadlines and requirements for registering and votingare confusing and complicated

15% (41%) 20% (44%) 14% (38%) 13% (40%) 12% (38%) 19% (43%)

14. I am now going to read you a few statements. Please tell me, overall, if you agree or disagree with each statement on a scale of 0-10, with 0 meaning you strongly disagree and 10 meaning you strongly agree, and you can be anywhere in between. [RANDOMIZE LIST]

38

Puerto Ricans have strong associations between voting and civic duty, recognizing voting as a meansof affecting positive change for both their communities and families. The entire group appears toclearly recognize the difference between rights and privileges, and believe that voting—an engine forprogress—falls squarely as a “right.”

"It's our right. If you don't vote, you cannot go out there and ask for things. That's the way to do it.“ – Miami, New Arrival

"I feel like this is the time that we most need to go out and vote because the Hispanic community is one of the communities that are getting affected the most by this government right now.“ – Orlando, New Arrival

Why Do You Vote?

"I said, ‘Somebody have to stand up and say something about it.’ I don't care because I am a U.S. citizen, but I do care for others. I have a lot of co-workers with me that they not U.S. citizen and they're very worried about it.“ – Orlando, New Arrival

“You vote for why your family goes, that's always Puerto Rico, it's a cultural thing” – Orlando, New Arrival

"One of the things that inspires me is that I have the right, you have to speak up, you have to exercise that right. Because if you don't exercise that right then you have to keep your mouth shut when something goes wrong.“ –Orlando, New Arrival

"I got a lot of seniors in my neighborhood so I can go like ‘Do you want to vote today? I'll take you.’" – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"Voting gives you more opportunities." –Orlando, New Arrival

"I'm disappointed because before this particularly presidency, this administration is not just him. I was comfortable like ‘Oh, let me vote’ and then involved a lot of issues, different things. Now its, I hate this, but now its like ‘I want him out, so then I'm voting for that one out of 95,000’" – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

“Hoping that something gets done." – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

39

65

22

4 8

Regularly Sometimes Rarely DK/Refused

There is a huge age gap between the regular friends and family of older Puerto Ricans and younger PuertoRicans. More recent residents are also younger, which influences the level of their participation in voting.

Voting Pattern of Friends and Family

11. In Florida, do most of your family and friends vote regularly, vote sometimes or rarely vote?

Regularly Sometimes Rarely

Under 40 57% 30% 7%

Over 40 72% 16% 2%

More recent arrivals 64% 22% 6%

Less recent arrivals 69% 21% 1%

Always mainland 64% 24% 5%

Spanish 67% 19% 4%

English 64% 24% 4%

40

On average, Puerto Ricans—particularly those both older in age and mainland residence—recognizevoting as a responsibility. The newer arrivals appear to deviate most frequently from the total PuertoRican population, revealing their reasons to vote as less of an opportunity to be heard and exact change,(unlike Always Mainlanders), and more as a means to help family, friends, and those who cannot vote.

Reasons You Vote

44

39

37

13

11

11

7

3

It's my responsibility

It provides an opportunity to voice my opinion

It is a way to bring about change

I want to help family and friends, here and inPuerto Rico

I want to represent others who cannot vote

It makes me feel connected to my community

I want to be a role model for family members

It's just a habit

9.In general, what are the two main reasons you vote when you get the chance to vote?

34% 53% 41% 58% 40%

42% 37% 34% 35% 48%

39% 35% 28% 35% 47%

13% 13% 19% 11% 9%

15% 8% 19% 6% 7%

15% 8% 11% 12% 12%

5% 9% 8% 8% 6%

4% 3% 3% 4% 2%

Under 40 Over 40 Less recent

arrivalsMore recent

arrivalsAlways

mainland

41

Largely, obstacles to vote do not discriminate by age or residency; Puerto Rican voters appear to experiencethese challenges at roughly the same frequencies. Puerto Ricans under the age of 40 are more concernedabout voting eligibility. Those ones that are over 40 years old and less recent arrivals are more likely to saythere are no barriers to voting.

10. Thinking about some elections when you did not get a chance to vote, what is the main reason you did not vote?

11

11

7

7

6

6

5

3

1

31

My work and my schedule made ithard to vote

I did not have enough informationabout the candidates

I would have but I was not eligible

I did not feel I could change things byvoting

I was worried about voting for thewrong person

I did not like the candidates

I did not have enough informationabout the issues, bonds, or initiatives

I did not have enough informationabout the process of voting

I forgot there was an election

Always vote

Barriers To Voting

13% 9% 8% 10% 14%

13% 9% 13% 10% 8%

13% 3% 7% 2% 11%

5% 9% 7% 8% 5%

10% 4% 6% 6% 8%

6% 7% 6% 4% 9%

6% 5% 6% 5% 5%

5% 2% 3% 3% 3%

3% 0% 1% 0% 3%

19% 42% 29% 44% 26%

Under 40 Over 40 Less recent

arrivalsMore recent

arrivalsAlways

mainland

42

Barriers between the voting booth and the Puerto Rican community are varied both in frequency andvariety. However, a lack of information in terms of the candidates, ballot measures, and the process ofregistering to vote, emerged as a common underlying theme.

Barriers to Voting

"It's usually because I don't know what I'm voting for. They haven't informed us enough." – Miami, New Arrival

“I had to comment to my friends because I was confused and I was like, ‘Who are these people?’ We don't know all of them. They don't let themselves to know themselves. It's very different in Puerto Rico.” – Miami, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"Well, my experience about the legislative, it was a lot of openings and a lot of it was a lot of amendments. Like the municipal won the city one. It was complicated. It was a lot of pamphlet and you sometimes don't even understand." –Miami, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"No option. No option." – Orlando, New Arrival

"I didn't vote , I didn't vote for the last governor election because I didn't- I did my research and I didn't know which one I wanted to vote for and I didn't want to waste a vote, so I decided not to vote." – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout "I think just similar to what he

said, with maybe they just didn’t want to make the wrong decision because they're just not educated enough on the candidates." – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"Yes, they want to get registered when they get the driver's license.’ It's automatically done. It's not. I thought it was like that. Then when I figure it out, I call them and I said ‘Hey, I never received nothing from you guys and I'm registered to vote.’ They said ‘No, you're not.’ So what should I do then, to do it?” – Orlando, New Arrival

43

Perhaps not exclusive to the Puerto Rican community, but still pervasive, is voter disillusionment and a loss offaith in elected government to impact their community, which reduces the meaning of voting. Multipleparticipants in the longer-term residents focus groups also brought up long lines and closed polling places—including in the ongoing Democratic primaries—as evidence of a process that is either dysfunctional or beingintentionally undermined, and wondered whether their votes would really count.

"Yep, yep. And since we don't have the time, give us quick little tips, a little bit of information." –Orlando, New Arrival

"I just didn't have the time. I knew who I wanted to vote for but I didn't have time." – Miami, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

Barriers to Voting

“Yeah, but I think that that depends on the area where you live. I have found people that they have said, ‘I don't vote because my vote doesn't count.’ And in Puerto Rico, you could see it that you vote and here it's like they see it in a different way.” –Miami, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"That no one- That they're vote doesn't count." –Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

“I used to work for the government for 10 years in Puerto Rico. So I lost faith." – Orlando, New Arrival

"I was afraid of going to the place. The first time I went to vote I was afraid that there was going to be people there trying to ‘Who you voting for?’ Trying to scare me away” – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

“Well because they lose the faith in the candidate.” – Miami, New Arrival

"They don't see how the issues affect them directly." – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

44

49

14 12 13 11

10 8-9 6-7 5/DK 0-4

Voter enthusiasm is divided along clear lines of age. With the overall average at 49%, thoseunder the age of 30 fall far behind, with even the 30-year-olds of the population strugglingto be excited for the 2020 elections. There is also a clear deviation correlating with language,with Spanish speakers more enthusiastic by 13 points.

Level of Enthusiasm in Voting in This Year’s Election

Enthusiasm in Voting

12. How enthusiastic are you about voting in this year’s November election for President, Congress, and other offices? Please rate your response on a scale that goes from 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not enthusiastic at all and 10 means you are very enthusiastic. You can use any number in between.

10- Very Enthusiastic

Under 30 24%

30-39 36%

Over 40 65%

More recent arrivals 52%

Less recent arrivals 64%

Always mainland 36%

Spanish 58%

English 45%

63%

45

53

15 12 11 10

10 8-9 6-7 5/DK 0-4

Motivation, which reflects the strongest among predictors of turnout, reveals similarpatterns by age. Those who have always been on the mainland are lower on motivationbecause of their younger age.

13. How motivated are you to vote in this year’s November election for President, Congress, and other offices? Please rate your response on a scale that goes from 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not motivated at all and 10 means you are very motivated. You can use any number in between.

10- Very Motivated

Under 30 28%

30-39 44%

Over 40 68%



Always mainland 46%

Spanish 58%

English 51%

68%

Motivation for Voting

Level of Motivation for Voting in This Year’s Election

46

Unsurprisingly, the Presidential contest is in the forefront of voters minds. However, Puerto Ricansare generally cognizant of how the Presidential election interacts with local government, and somealso stress the importance of both Congressional elections and local races. Just beneath the surfaceis an ever-present sense of disillusionment, and in some cases, frustration.

"Its going to be close no matter who wins, its going to be a close election.” – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"They're all important but I think the one in November is more emphasis on the presidential, it's more important.” – Miami, New Arrival

Opinions on this year’s election

"Since that, I've stayed all my focus away from the White House. Trump can win or lose, the thing is that if he doesn't have enough support, congress is not.” – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"Because it trickles down from [the Presidential election.] I think it sets the tone." – Miami, New Arrival

"I feel like this is the time that we most need to go out and vote because the Hispanic community is one of the communities that are getting affected the most by this government right now." – Orlando, New Arrival

"I'm more concerned about congress to tell you the truth” – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"Well, ever since the impeachment situation, we have the entire institution, you know, crooks, unethical, I don't know why we didn't have a trial, somebody's innocent” –Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

"I wish we could throw them all out” – Orlando, Long Term, Uneven Turnout

“[A] local [election], it affects you when it comes to taxes, when it comes to stuff like that, it's going to either benefit you by giving you more…[or] raise the taxes…for pick up the trash, or schools, stuff like that, it's going to affect me personally” – Miami, New Arrival

47

74

9 9 4 2

Almostcertain

Probably 50-50 Probably not Definitelynot

Finally, certainty to vote shows the same patterns. Lagging 20-25% behind othertested subgroups, only half of younger voters are “almost certain” to vote in the nextelection.

This sub-group, that is far less likely to vote, affects new arrivals more, as 22% of new arrivals is under thirty, while later arrivals’ composition only includes 5% of voters under the age of 30.

Almost certain

Under 30 51%

30-39 76%

Over 40 85%



Always mainland 69%

Spanish 74%

English 74%

83%

Voting Likelihood

Likelihood of Voting in This Year’s Election

48

49

14 12 13 11

52

14 12 13 10

10 8-9 6-7 5/DK 0-4

With the exception of less recent arrivals, the barrage of anti-Trump messaging marginallyfortifies Puerto Ricans’ enthusiasm. More recent arrivals are slightly more invigorated by thecontrast messages than the Always Mainlanders; Spanish speakers are as well. The youngestvoters are not particularly motivated.

Level of Post-message Enthusiasm in Voting in This Year’s Election

Post-message Enthusiasm in Voting(Lighter shade initial enthusiasm, darker shade post message)

21. How enthusiastic are you about voting in this year’s November election for President, Congress, and other offices? Please rate your response on a scale that goes from 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not enthusiastic at all and 10 means you are very enthusiastic. You can use any number in between.

Initial 10Post-message

10

Under 30 24% 26%

30-39 36% 39%

Over 40 65% 69%

More recent arrivals 52% 59%

Less recent arrivals 64% 59%

Always mainland 36% 40%

Spanish 58% 62%

English 45% 48%

66%

49

Lake Research PartnersWashington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066

Message and Positioning

49


50

44

40

40

40

39

39

39

38

38

37

35

60

57

54

52

57

54

55

53

53

55

54

Puerto Rico/respect*

Healthcare

Working families struggling*

Immigration- without coronavirus*

Puerto Rico/empathy*

Economy for the wealthy*

Trump budget

Coronavirus

Immigration- with coronavirus*

Climate change

Bad for families and children

Total doubts (51-100)

Serious doubts (100)

The most compelling arguments for opposing Trump among Puerto Ricans in Florida emphasize his negligence and complete lack ofrespect for Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, his efforts to kick millions of Americans off their healthcare (including during apublic health pandemic and jobs crisis), and the massive expansion of uninsured people and wealth inequality on Trump’s watch—hittingLatinx communities the hardest. Messages that start with “Donald Trump” test slightly better. Adding Coronavirus does not particularlyincrease the power of messages. “Respect” is stronger than “empathy.”

*split sampled19. Individuals who participate in this survey have been randomly assigned statements made by people who either support or oppose re-electing Donald Trump. Youhave been assigned to read some statements made by people who oppose re-electing Donald Trump. For each, I would like you to rate the statement on a scale fromzero to 100, where 100 means the statement raises SERIOUS doubts about Donald Trump, Zero means the statement raises no doubts in your mind about Donald Trump,and your rating can be anywhere in between. If you are not sure how you feel about a particular item, please say so. [RANDOMIZE STATEMENTS]

Rate the statement on a scale from zero to 100

51

Message Language In Order of Intensity: Tier 1[PUERTO RICO/ RESPECT] Donald Trump should have done everything within his power to meet the needs of Puerto Ricans trapped without food,power, and healthcare after Hurricane Maria or who lost their homes in the earthquakes. Instead, he mocked and showed no respect for Puerto Ricoand abandoned US citizens when they needed our help the most. Once President Trump reluctantly sent aid, it was too little too late. We need tovote for a President who respects Puerto Rican families and communities.

[HEALTHCARE] No one should be forced to choose between rent or groceries and seeing a doctor. But even in the face of the coronavirus pandemic,Trump is trying to kick millions of Americans off their healthcare, including millions with pre-existing conditions, by refusing to expand enrollment toObamacare. We need to ensure that access to affordable healthcare and prescription drugs is a right that is guaranteed, especially during this publichealth and jobs crisis.

[WORKING FAMILIES STRUGGLING] Working families struggled before coronavirus. Under Trump, the number of people without health insuranceincreased, and wealth inequality was the largest in 50 years. The current crisis exposed so-called job growth for what it was – a rise in low-payingjobs without benefits. Millions of people filed for unemployment in March and job losses have hit Latino communities hardest. We need a Presidentwith solutions for working Americans, like paid sick leave and a federal minimum wage of at least $15 per hour.

[IMMIGRATION- WITHOUT CORONAVIRUS] We need a more effective, compassionate approach to immigration. Building walls at the border, cagingchildren, and treating immigrants so badly that they'll want to go back themselves won’t work. Ignoring family ties in how we decide who can andcannot enter this country won't work either. Welcoming newcomers but separating and splitting their families is not who we are as a nation. Weneed a President who proposes compassionate solutions to immigration, including a clear roadmap to citizenship.

[PUERTO RICO/ EMPATHY] Donald Trump should have done everything within his power to meet the needs of Puerto Ricans trapped without food,power, and healthcare after Hurricane Maria or who lost their homes in the earthquakes. Instead, he mocked and showed no empathy for PuertoRico and abandoned US citizens when they needed our help the most. Once President Trump reluctantly sent aid, it was too little too late. We needto vote for a President who cares about Puerto Rican families and communities.

[ECONOMY FOR THE WEALTHY] President Trump's policies have enriched the richest 1% like himself, while working people are struggling. UnderTrump, the number of people without health insurance has increased and income inequality is at the highest level it’s been in 50 years. Because ofTrump's tax cuts, 60 of the largest corporations pay no federal taxes. Zero. Meanwhile, Trump has cut billions of dollars from education, while tryingto tear the Affordable Care Act to pieces. We need economic policies that help all Americans, not just the wealthy few.

52

Message Language In Order of Intensity: Tier 2

[TRUMP BUDGET] We need a President who invests in programs that benefit working families. Trump promised when he was running for Presidentthat he would protect programs like Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. Yet his pre-coronavirus budget proposal cut all three. It also cut aid forlower-income students, ended student loan forgiveness for teachers, firefighters and other public workers and cut SNAP benefits that provide foodassistance. It’s time for a president who puts working families first.

[CORONAVIRUS] Donald Trump downplayed the threat of coronavirus early on and then attacked governors in hard-hit states. He then complainedabout doctors and nurses dealing with shortages of protective gear. Now, as America is on track to have the highest number of deaths of any countryon earth, we are still waiting for the most important aspects of recovery – greater access to testing, affordable healthcare, economic relief formillions of Americans, and a President who can unite us in times of crisis.

[IMMIGRATION- WITH CORONAVIRUS] The coronavirus crisis has shown that immigrants provide essential work for society. Building walls at theborder, caging children, and treating immigrants so badly that they'll want to go back themselves won’t work. Ignoring family ties in how we decidewho can and cannot enter this country won't work either. Welcoming newcomers but separating and splitting their families is not who we are as anation. We need a President who proposes compassionate solutions to immigration, including a clear roadmap to citizenship.

[CLIMATE CHANGE] For Floridians, climate change is a reality. Every year, we lose more of our wetlands, coastal mangroves, and beaches to warmingand rising seawaters. We grapple with billions of dollars in property loss in addition to the devastating impacts climate change has had on familieswho have lost their homes and livelihoods to severe weather. We need a President that recognizes the realities of climate change and supportspolicies that safeguard communities.

[BAD FOR FAMILIES AND CHILDREN] Too many hard-working families are struggling to get by. The current crisis has exposed huge holes in ourcommunities. Now more than ever, our government needs to invest in programs that benefit families like health care, affordable, quality child-care,and paid leave. Instead the President has consistently proposed cuts to programs families depend on, including funding for schools. It’s time weelect a President who invests in families as well as big business.

53

The “Puerto Rico Respect” message was most effective across most groups, though the intensity of the respondentsdecreased proportionally with how long they had resided on the mainland. Compared to other tested groups, less recentarrivals were more responsive to messaging focusing on Trump being an advocate for the wealthy and having a disparateimpact on children. While more recent arrivals felt elevated empathy to the island and immigrants than their counterparts,the “Coronavirus” message is less persuasive to this group.

Does the statement raise SERIOUS doubts, SOME doubts, MINOR doubts, or NO REAL doubts?

% “Serious” Doubts (% Total Doubts) All

Arrival Age

More recent arrivals

Less recent arrivals

Always mainland

Younger voters

Puerto Rico/respect* 44% (60%) 50% (65%) 46% (53%) 38% (60%) 33% (50%)

Healthcare 40% (57%) 41% (58%) 44% (57%) 38% (57%) 33% (49%)

Working families struggling* 40% (54%) 40% (54%) 41% (48%) 39% (57%) 33% (51%)

Immigration- without coronavirus* 40% (52%) 44% (52%) 38% (53%) 37% (52%) 35% (45%)

Puerto Rico/empathy* 39% (57%) 43% (58%) 35% (52%) 40% (59%) 32% (56%)

Economy for the wealthy* 39% (54%) 39% (55%) 49% (56%) 36% (52%) 27% (41%)

Trump budget 39% (55%) 42% (58%) 37% (50%) 37% (55%) 33% (48%)

Coronavirus 38% (53%) 37% (51%) 40% (51%) 39% (56%) 34% (51%)

Immigration- with coronavirus* 38% (53%) 39% (55%) 38% (51%) 36% (50%) 32% (50%)

Climate change 37% (55%) 35% (54%) 38% (53%) 38% (58%) 31% (52%)

Bad for families and children 35% (54%) 33% (53%) 42% (54%) 35% (57%) 28% (49%)*split sampled19. Individuals who participate in this survey have been randomly assigned statements made by people who either support or oppose re-electing Donald Trump. You have been assigned to read some statements made by people who oppose re-electing Donald Trump. For each, I would like you to rate the statement on a scale from zero to 100, where 100 means the statement raises SERIOUS doubts about Donald Trump, Zero means the statement raises no doubts in your mind about Donald Trump, and your rating can be anywhere in between. If you are not sure how you feel about a particular item, please say so. [RANDOMIZE STATEMENTS]

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Compared to both the total population and English speakers, Spanish speakers responded best to messages on respect for Puerto Rico, the struggles of working families, and empathy for immigrants, while English speakers reacted with considerably less enthusiasm to the Puerto Rico respect messaging.

Does the statement raise SERIOUS doubts, SOME doubts, MINOR doubts, or NO REAL doubts?

% “Serious” Doubts (% Total Doubts) AllLanguage

English Spanish

Puerto Rico/respect* 44% (60%) 39% (56%) 57% (69%)

Healthcare 40% (57%) 40% (57%) 41% (58%)

Working families struggling* 40% (54%) 36% (53%) 48% (55%)

Immigration- without coronavirus* 40% (52%) 36% (50%) 48% (58%)

Puerto Rico/empathy* 39% (57%) 40% (58%) 38% (56%)

Economy for the wealthy* 39% (54%) 37% (51%) 44% (60%)

Trump budget 39% (55%) 38% (55%) 40% (56%)

Coronavirus 38% (53%) 38% (54%) 38% (51%)

Immigration- with coronavirus* 38% (53%) 37% (53%) 41% (54%)

Climate change 37% (55%) 38% (56%) 34% (53%)

Bad for families and children 35% (54%) 35% (54%) 37% (55%)*split sampled19. Individuals who participate in this survey have been randomly assigned statements made by people who either support or oppose re-electing Donald Trump. You have been assigned to read some statements made by people who oppose re-electing Donald Trump. For each, I would like you to rate the statement on a scale from zero to 100, where 100 means the statement raises SERIOUS doubts about Donald Trump, Zero means the statement raises no doubts in your mind about Donald Trump, and your rating can be anywhere in between. If you are not sure how you feel about a particular item, please say so. [RANDOMIZE STATEMENTS]

55

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