public perceptions of climate change: key trends and ... · climate change risk perceptions...
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Public Perceptions of Climate Change:
Key Trends and Emerging Issues
Nick Pidgeon Tyndall Centre
& Climate Change Consortium of Wales,
Understanding Risk Research Group,
Cardiff University
University of Bergen, October 2015
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Overview
• Public Perceptions of Climate Risks
• Charting Trends Over Time and Space
• Extreme Weather Impacts and Change
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Climate Change
– a Human and Social Problem!
• Key drivers of anthropogenic climate change are human activities (e.g. food and heating, transportation, consumption, population growth).
• Solutions are typically new technologies / engineering interventions or economic instruments (plus ‘lifestyle change’)
• Climate mitigation or adaptation is unlikely to succeed without behaviour and lifestyle changes
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Climate Change Risk Perceptions
• People are concerned about cc (until very recently increasing), believe it is happening, but some still think it is natural variation
• Can confuse cc with other environmental issues (e.g. ozone) but decreasing
• View it as a distant problem affecting other people and times
• Recognise the effects (heat, melting glaciers) but don’t spontaneously connect these with anthropogenic causes (energy use, deforestation)
• Many causes (e.g. electricity use) and some consequences (ocean acidification) ‘invisible’ in everyday life
Lorenzoni and Pidgeon (2006) Climatic Change, 77, 73-95.
Pidgeon (2012) Climate Policy, 12 (Sup01), S85-S106.
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Acceptance that the climate is changing (Nationally
Representative for Great Britain 2005-2014 – Understanding Risk Group Surveys; n circa
1,000 per wave)
Survey respondents
asked:
“As far as you know,
do you think the
world’s climate is
changing, or not?”
n ≥1,000 at each time point
Data accurate within +/- 2 to 3% (95%
C.I.)
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‘Concern’ about climate change (2005-2014)
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Source: Capstick et al (2014) International trends in public
perceptions of climate change over the past quarter century. Wires
Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.321
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Belief about climate change causation (Nationally
Representative for Great Britain 2010-2014 – Understanding Risk Group Surveys; n>1,000
per wave)
Survey
respondents
asked:
“Which, if any, of
the following best
describes your
opinion about the
causes of climate
change?”
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% a
gre
ein
g
Partly caused by natural processes, partly human activity
Caused by human activity mainly/entirely
Caused by natural processes mainly/entirely
n ≥1,000 at each time point
Data accurate within +/- 2 to 3% (95%
C.I.)
--g Extension of data series using UK govt.
data
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Factors Affecting Attenuation of Concern (US, UK 2007-2010)
• ‘Climate Gate’
• Economic Circumstances (measured by GDP/Unemployment Rates)
• Media Coverage (quantity)
• Elite Cues (on both sides)
• More Research Needs to be Done
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European Perceptions of Climate
Change (EPCC) Project
Four Countries:
UK, France, Norway, Germany
Common Survey Instrument
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The Possible Role of Qualitative Longitudinal
Research (QL)? • Need for more depth
qualitative studies Pidgeon
(2010), Wolfe & Moser (2012)
• Could we chart changes in climate discourses (cf Dryzek) over time?
• Data-sets accessed from 1997-2010
• Methodologically challenging – hence bespoke methods of data analysis
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Source: Capstick, Pidgeon, and Henwood (2015) Environmental Values, 24, 725-753.
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Source: Capstick, Pidgeon, and Henwood (2015) Environmental Values, 24, 725-753.
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3 Discourses Examined
• Lifestyles and Cultural Practices
• Accounts of Personal Action
• Climate Change Ethics
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Source: Capstick, Pidgeon, and Henwood (2015) Environmental Values, 24, 725-753.
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Changing Cultural Practices
(P22-2010)
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Accounts of Personal Action – and Contradictions Therein
(P35-2010)
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Climate Change Ethics
(P17-2010)
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‘Lifestyle Change’ could contribute a 30% cut in UK Greenhouse
gas emissions (UK Energy Research Centre, 2008)
• But ‘lifestyle change’ hides a multitude of sins, and theoretical modelling rarely matches reality
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Click to add title
• Longitudinal Biographical Interviews
▫ Four sites: Ely, Peterston (Cardiff), Lammas (West Wales), Royal Free Hospital (London)
▫ 3 longitudinal interviews (original group of 74 in first round narrowed down to 36 for rounds 2 & 3)
▫ Multimedia component
▫ 6 months between interviews
The Energy Biographies Project
See: www.energybiographies.org
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There is effort involved when people are seeking to work out:
• what is the best thing to do?
• how to resolve moral tensions over long-established and/or contemporary values?
•
• how difficult it can be to think about a longer-term future based on contemporary ideals of what counts as a life worth living?
• How to resolve personal uncertainties magnified during key life-course transitions?
Energy Biographies - Findings
www.energybiographies.org
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Won’t affect
people like me
Won’t happen
here
Won’t happen in
my lifetime
Does it really
exist/have serious
impacts?
Social Distance
Geographic Distance Temporal
Distance
Uncertainty Distance
Spence, Poortinga, Pidgeon (2012) The
Psychological Distance of Climate Change
Risk Analysis, 32(6), 957-972..
Psychological Distance
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Source: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (2012)
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Source: Capstick et al, 2013
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The 2013/2014 Winter Floods
• Exceptional run of severe Atlantic storms
• December and January the wettest months on record (Scotland/South East)
• Widespread national disruption (costal and river flooding) - though major impacts localised
• Multi-agency response (up to PM and Cabinet Office)
• Sustained media attention
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All Fieldwork – September to October 2014
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• Design issues critical to detecting influence of flood experience on climate change perceptions
• Much previous research in this area but causation very hard to establish
• Important to measure climate change perceptions and then take ‘objective’ measures of flood experience
‘Experience’ of
extreme weather
Climate change
perceptions
Role of flooding as an influence on
climate change perceptions
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Survey Design Unprompted views on ‘major national issues’
Key indicators of climate change perceptions
Further measures of climate change attitudes
Measures of flood ‘experience’
Further psychometric (e.g. values) and
demographic measures
Views on the flooding, impacts, causes, emotions
and possible links with climate change
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Flood experience measures
in the survey
1. Geographical: five flood-affected areas
2. Material, direct impacts of the flooding
3. Personal impact
The most directly affected (n=135):
(a) reside in the oversampled areas, and
(b) report their property was directly affected by the
flooding events (Q25 in survey).
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The most directly affected sample
Overall, these respondents had a more direct and salient experience of the flood events compared to the national sample.
Travel/work disruptions: 72% in the most directly affected
sample vs. 20% in the national sample
Disruption to services: 55% in the most directly affected
sample vs. 7% in the national sample
Impacts on other people in area: 91% in the most directly
affected sample vs. 14% in the
national sample
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
environmental problems
education
crime
the NHS/ healthcare
the economy
race relations/ immigration
climate change
% top three issues today % top three issues over next 20 years
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Comparing national and flooded samples
Construct Question/Item National
sample
(n=1,002)
Most directly
affected
sample
(n=135)
Significance
level
Climate
change
concern
How concerned are
you about climate
change?
68%
fairly/very
concerned
78%
fairly/very
concerned
**, p = .002
Have you become
more or less
concerned about
climate change over
the past 12 months?
26% more
concerned
46% more
concerned
***, p < .000
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Comparing national and flooded samples Construct Question/Item National
sample (n=1,002)
Most directly affected sample
(n=135)
Significance level
Salience I worry about climate
change on a day-to-day
basis
18% agree 21% agree Non-
significant
(p = .242)
What are the three most
important issues facing
the UK today?
11%
mentioned
climate
change
18%
mentioned
climate change
Non-
significant
(p = .380)
What are the three most
important issues facing
the UK in the next 20
years?
15%
mentioned
climate
change
29%
mentioned
climate change
**, p = .004
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Comparing national issue salience on
20-year horizon
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
most directly affectedsample
national sample
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Concluding Comments
• More work to be done (internationally and over time)
• Socio-political factors important, alongside some impacts of extreme weather
• Qualitative research (beliefs about climate and energy practices) brings more textured understandings
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Acknowledgements
Adam Corner, Baruch Fischhoff, Karen Henwood, Irene Lorenzoni,
Alexa Spence, Wouter Poortinga, Christina Demski, Stuart Capstick,
Chris Groves, Fiona Shiriani, Merryn Thomas, Catherine Butler,
Karen Parkhill, Robert Sposato, Lorraine Whitmarsh
Website www.understanding-risk.org